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Catcher in 2019 (4/16: Swihart DFA'd)
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Post by humanbeingbean on Mar 8, 2019 13:45:22 GMT -5
This isn’t exactly an analytical/statistical take, but I assume the Sox just went with a “don’t fix what ain’t broke” philosophy last season. There was no reason to trade/cut a catcher when they were doing so well, as there is the human element to the game - the clubhouse would’ve been affected, and I’m sure the pitchers who prefer a certain catcher would’ve been upset. Unfortunately, Swihart pulled the shortest stick last season and rode pine, but I don’t blame Cora for not wanting to alter anything. I’m a Swihart fan myself (at this point, more so out of rooting for the underdog) and would love to see him get a shot with the Sox, but if Leon and Vazquez are the tandem for this season again (if they’re so beloved in the clubhouse, I can’t really have any qualms with it), then I hope the Sox try to figure out a trade that gives Blake a chance to be a starter somewhere else.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Mar 8, 2019 14:04:43 GMT -5
This isn’t exactly an analytical/statistical take, but I assume the Sox just went with a “don’t fix what ain’t broke” philosophy last season. There was no reason to trade/cut a catcher when they were doing so well, as there is the human element to the game - the clubhouse would’ve been affected, and I’m sure the pitchers who prefer a certain catcher would’ve been upset. Unfortunately, Swihart pulled the shortest stick last season and rode pine, but I don’t blame Cora for not wanting to alter anything. I’m a Swihart fan myself (at this point, more so out of rooting for the underdog) and would love to see him get a shot with the Sox, but if Leon and Vazquez are the tandem for this season again (if they’re so beloved in the clubhouse, I can’t really have any qualms with it), then I hope the Sox try to figure out a trade that gives Blake a chance to be a starter somewhere else. I think what you're saying makes a ton of sense. The Sox got off to a blazing start, everything was going perfectly, why in the world would you take the risk of changing the catcher to see if he can reach what is the highest upside of the three catchers? The answer is you don't. Then Vazquez got injured and it was down to Leon and Swihart. I have no doubt that the Sox FO knows how much the pitchers loved pitching to Leon and I have no doubt that Tek was in Dombrowski's ears telling him not to give up on Swihart - that the kid just needs a chance - that the tools are there and he'd work hard to hone those tools. And for a long time the Sox FO has seen Vazquez as a potential Yadier Molina type. So it came down to level of risk, something you don't normally take when you're team is speeding along without any signs of slowing down. I suspect because the Red Sox aren't likely going to be in a position of total breakdown, that Swihart will never really get a chance to realize his potential because if they were, that's when you're more prone to taking risks. In 2015 with the team going nowhere Blake got that extended look and the team could afford growing pains. Once 2016 rolled around and I'm guessing Dombrowski took a look, figured his team was ready to win, but that they would struggle with uncertainty defensively behind the plate, he quickly (too quickly in my opinion) pulled the plug on Swihart and went with the less riskier Vazquez and eventually Leon, when he had that big hot streak. And by that point, the Sox were contenders and no longer in a position to experiment, given their contender status and the fact that Swihart had been badly injured playing LF. I think that's the position they still find themselves in today. And I think they'll wind up dealing away Swihart because of that. I personally would deal Leon because if the Sox are willing to experiment a little with Swihart and he doesn't pan out, then you still have Vazquez to be the regular, but if Swihart does pan out, then Vazquez is an excellent backup. With Leon, his bat has regressed to .177. It is possible he could be even worse offensively this year, and if so I don't think, despite how excellent he is defensively, it's too tough to find a catcher with excellent defensive skills who is a Mendoza line type hitter, which is actually better offensively than what Sandy Leon is as he has crossed into Marc Sullivan levels territory offensively.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Mar 8, 2019 15:22:15 GMT -5
OK, I'm going to be tough about this. Throwing a bunch of terms around without definitions is your prerogative, but it doesn't really nail down your case. Good for catchers is a very different take than for most of the other positions. The history of MLB is littered with catchers who had 15+ year careers but who were mediocre to very bad hitters. The position is valued differently. All the evidence points to that simple fact over and over again. So throwing around that term means absolutely nothing to me without considering that. We have no idea what data teams are using, but there have been hints over the years about how coveted some catchers are despite their near uselessness at the plate. In a nutshell: Good needs a clear definition and we don't have all the data we need to get a handle on one. How about WAR, is that quantifiable enough? It's plenty quantifiable but as far as catchers go, it isn't very good. Edit: I'm not a fan of WAR in any case and I'm sure it's not perfect, but I doubt it's so far off that the dumpster fire caliber numbers it produces for Vazquez and Leon are so far off that they're completely meaningless. We can use your numbers that you brought up, Leon saves 11.7 runs defensively and as 7th best in baseball has little room to improve. Vazquez is at 9.0 and ditto on upside. How hard do you think it would be for Swihart to close that gap with his bat given a chance? Harder than you think, because Vazquez is a better hitter than he showed last year (.281 xwOBA versus .240 actual wOBA), and Swihart's average defensive numbers are the most likely to slip in a larger sample of playing time.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Mar 8, 2019 18:35:53 GMT -5
Whatever, if that's the language you speak then how about this: In 2016, when Swihart was last healthy and playing regularly, he had a xwOBA of .336. That is a larger number than .281, right? No reason to think Swihart can't replicate that or something close with regular playing time. Even in Swihart's rookie year, when he was awful the first couple of months, his xwOBA was .286 on the year. Again, larger than .281 and probably his offensive floor when given enough playing time. On the other hand, Vazquez's career high xwOBA is .293. Checking my math, .336 is still larger than .293. Using the numbers you insist are gospel, my takeaway on that is that Vazquez's offensive ceiling is probably less than Swihart's offensive floor. So yeah, I think Swihart has the potential to make up 9 runs in a month let alone a full year. Unless, of course, these 9 defensive runs are hypothetical, metaphorical runs like the "win" in WAR in which case that 9 "runs" can mean whatever it needs to be for you to be correct. Starting to remember why I stopped posting here. Literally all I said was that Vazquez isn't as bad a hitter as he showed last year.
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Mar 9, 2019 7:54:39 GMT -5
Harder than you think, because Vazquez is a better hitter than he showed last year (.281 xwOBA versus .240 actual wOBA), and Swihart's average defensive numbers are the most likely to slip in a larger sample of playing time. Refresh my memory, isn't xwOBA that magic number that explained why JBJ was an offensive all-star the 1st half of last year despite every other piece of information available saying the contrary? In case you missed it, JBJ has changed that near-flawless approach from early last year in favor of a new swing. Guess he doesn't know about xwOBA and that he should have just waited for the sample to get big enough. Whatever, if that's the language you speak then how about this: In 2016, when Swihart was last healthy and playing regularly, he had a xwOBA of .336. That is a larger number than .281, right? No reason to think Swihart can't replicate that or something close with regular playing time. Even in Swihart's rookie year, when he was awful the first couple of months, his xwOBA was .286 on the year. Again, larger than .281 and probably his offensive floor when given enough playing time. On the other hand, Vazquez's career high xwOBA is .293. Checking my math, .336 is still larger than .293. Using the numbers you insist are gospel, my takeaway on that is that Vazquez's offensive ceiling is probably less than Swihart's offensive floor. So yeah, I think Swihart has the potential to make up 9 runs in a month let alone a full year. Unless, of course, these 9 defensive runs are hypothetical, metaphorical runs like the "win" in WAR in which case that 9 "runs" can mean whatever it needs to be for you to be correct. Starting to remember why I stopped posting here. Wow that last paragraph is amazing. It's like watching those guys who hide a ball under three cups and then shuffle the cups around and ask you where the ball is.
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Post by dmaineah on Mar 9, 2019 9:09:39 GMT -5
I think Wright's suspension will have an impact on which Catcher will be moved. I think now they will be more willing to trade Swihart where as before I think they were trying to move Leon.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Mar 9, 2019 11:42:23 GMT -5
I think Wright's suspension will have an impact on which Catcher will be moved. I think now they will be more willing to trade Swihart where as before I think they were trying to move Leon. Doubt one has much to do with the other. Before Wright's suspension the Sox were hoping he could be a middle/high leverage arm, but whether you're dealing Swihart, or Leon, or even Vazquez, you're not going to get a potential high leverage arm for him. They'll probably get a AAAA starter with options for whichever catcher they deal. The Sox catchers' don't have much in the way of trade value. This was the most likely scenario prior to Wright's suspension and the most likely scenario after Wright's suspension. They'll pick another reliever or two off the scrapheap, somebody like a Josh Fields or whoever shakes loose as the rosters from other teams get pared down and relievers become available.
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Post by voiceofreason on Mar 18, 2019 8:22:17 GMT -5
For those of us that have been on SP long enough we all remember 4/5 years ago when the Vazquez/Swihart debate began in earnest. Which one would turn into either the next Posey/Molina, seems like an eternity now. Then this nobody Leon comes along and hits 310 for a good portion of 2016, wow what a find but still it was about Swihart/Vazquez.
Just find it funny how the last 4 years have gone at that position, the highs and lows for each. It has been an interesting ride but it does need to end. Good arguments for keeping each of them and it is any ones call but Leon is the pitchers favorite and the one who would also have the weakest trade value "maybe". I like Swiharts position flexibility abut his bat needs to find some consistency, which could be said for all 3. Tough call but one that needs to be made, soon.
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Post by mandelbro on Mar 18, 2019 8:39:08 GMT -5
I think the Sox have to move on from Swihart at this point.
I like the kid, and I think things could have turned out differently, had the team managed the situation better. But this is where we are now. He's still green behind the dish, and hasn't been the same since crashing into the OF wall. He doesn't have a great approach at the plate, he's a contact hitter who doesn't have match-up value off the bench, and is better suited to hitting every day.
Cutting the cord now is the best outcome for all parties involved.
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Post by m1keyboots on Mar 20, 2019 13:49:23 GMT -5
Swihart should have been traded for something a couple years ago. He's likely a good catcher he's just obviously not the red sox favorite "good" catcher and unfortunately for Swihart fans, that's all that matters in the end. This is my problem with the catching situation - if by "good" you mean above average then probably none of our options are good to start the season. Leon and Vazquez very likely never get to good, Swihart could get there but needs playing time. Last year was very frustrating at the catching position and, if Swihart doesn't turn into that good player, then it's likely to be a point of frustration for the foreseeable future. It just doesn't seem like a good team building move to ditch a high upside player for the sake of keeping two below-average, minimal upside catchers. Keep either Vazquez or Leon for the stability and Swihart for the upside. Keeping Leon and Vazquez just seems like you're locking in a below average output for the next 2-4 years and I don't know why the team would do that. Yeah, that's what I meant. I think there is some "good"Ness in what CV and Leon bring. The handling of staff, the ability to at times be good throwers and for the most part CV can put the bat on the ball and Leon is Leon Swihart hasnt really shown anything, but for being a quick catcher. This isn't a slight on him, he hasn't had a shot. However after winning the world series with CV/Leon and their production I think it's fine to keep both for a couple years. I was just hoping the cries for the purging of say our catchers, or center fielder, for more offense. It's always more offense. Luckily the bosox know the game is about more.
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Post by telson13 on Mar 20, 2019 16:28:55 GMT -5
This is my problem with the catching situation - if by "good" you mean above average then probably none of our options are good to start the season. Leon and Vazquez very likely never get to good, Swihart could get there but needs playing time. Last year was very frustrating at the catching position and, if Swihart doesn't turn into that good player, then it's likely to be a point of frustration for the foreseeable future. It just doesn't seem like a good team building move to ditch a high upside player for the sake of keeping two below-average, minimal upside catchers. Keep either Vazquez or Leon for the stability and Swihart for the upside. Keeping Leon and Vazquez just seems like you're locking in a below average output for the next 2-4 years and I don't know why the team would do that. Yeah, that's what I meant. I think there is some "good"Ness in what CV and Leon bring. The handling of staff, the ability to at times be good throwers and for the most part CV can put the bat on the ball and Leon is Leon Swihart hasnt really shown anything, but for being a quick catcher. This isn't a slight on him, he hasn't had a shot. However after winning the world series with CV/Leon and their production I think it's fine to keep both for a couple years. I was just hoping the cries for the purging of say our catchers, or center fielder, for more offense. It's always more offense. Luckily the bosox know the game is about more. On the flipside, I’d argue that the Sox are in the unique position of being SO good, particularly offensively, that they could survive (and thrive) giving Leon substantial time and riding out Swihart’s growing pains. Leon/Vasquez is a redundant combination, with markedly limited upside. As a team approaching a salary crunch, squeezing an extra 1-2 wins out of a low-cost player like Swihart (who may well provide more, still at low cost) is a good gamble.
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bosox
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Posts: 2,117
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Post by bosox on Mar 20, 2019 20:09:37 GMT -5
I think the Sox are keeping CV and Swihart. They will end up designating Leon for assignment. Teams seem to be set at catcher.
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Post by mandelbro on Mar 21, 2019 10:34:25 GMT -5
People are overrating the difference between Vazquez and Swihart's offensive track records.
Vazquez has a career 67 wRC+ in 999 PA and Swihart has a career 83 wRC+ in 597 PA. Vaz is a year and a half older, so while he'll never be Buster Posey, its hardly improbable that he'll get better.
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Post by RedSoxStats on Mar 21, 2019 11:00:09 GMT -5
In months with 35+ plate appearances Swihart has been 85+ wRC+ 6 times and 85- 3 times. Vazquez has been 85+ 5 times and 85- 11 times. At one point early last year Swihart had like 45 at bats in 60+ days. He needs regular time.
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Post by jerrygarciaparra on Mar 21, 2019 11:18:46 GMT -5
I think the Sox are keeping CV and Swihart. They will end up designating Leon for assignment. Teams seem to be set at catcher. If they DFA....he won't be back. I don't see why they do that ? There isn't one team that won't give a flyer prospect for him to back up ? I think it is just as likely they keep 3 catchers until some teams catching plans get royally screwed up. He might be a terrible hitter, but he is heckuva catcher. Do we really have a player position crunch at this point that necessitates this strategy ? Curious.
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Post by vermontsox1 on Mar 21, 2019 15:08:03 GMT -5
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mobaz
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Post by mobaz on Mar 21, 2019 15:11:08 GMT -5
I'm on board. Seems like the best balance of safety on a world series contender and upside now/in the future. Now we'll see if Blake can catch enough games to get his bat and glove settled.
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Post by artfuldodger on Mar 22, 2019 7:21:08 GMT -5
From the report, there seems to be multiple teams looking to trade for Leon. I am a little surprised that this late in spring training that multiple teams are looking to trade for Leon.
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Post by borisman on Mar 22, 2019 7:24:39 GMT -5
I think a trade is imminent or else the report may not have come out unless it was leaked to drum up interest since spring training is close to an end.
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Post by costpet on Mar 22, 2019 8:18:07 GMT -5
I wish they would shop CV instead. I don’t care if León never gets another hit. The pitchers love him and that counts for something. He can also teach Blake to be a better catcher. If they make a trade, what would they get in return, a stud reliever? I doubt that. Better a good prospect.
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Post by voiceofreason on Mar 22, 2019 9:17:47 GMT -5
I wish they would shop CV instead. I don’t care if León never gets another hit. The pitchers love him and that counts for something. He can also teach Blake to be a better catcher. If they make a trade, what would they get in return, a stud reliever? I doubt that. Better a good prospect. I agree with you on the pitchers love him and the Sox have enough bats to hide him but in regards to Swihart learning, Tek is there for that.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Mar 22, 2019 9:32:23 GMT -5
I wish they would shop CV instead. I don’t care if León never gets another hit. The pitchers love him and that counts for something. He can also teach Blake to be a better catcher. If they make a trade, what would they get in return, a stud reliever? I doubt that. Better a good prospect. Yeah but Vazquez is also a strong defender, and either one of the two can cover most of the defensive innings at catcher, so it's really kind of a waste to carry both. If Swihart, who has not hit at all in recent history, is expected to take like twelve steps forward with the bat and become an above-average hitter, I really don't see why Vazquez can't take one or two steps forward with his defense to become the equal of Leon. Also, I guess they must be feeling at least somewhat confident in Swihart's defense if they're willing to make him the primary backup.
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bosox
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Post by bosox on Mar 22, 2019 20:53:56 GMT -5
Looks like it may come down to when they set the opening day roster. Per Cora, they may take all three catchers to Cubs series. I still believe Leon will be the one that's DFA'd.
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Post by GyIantosca on Mar 23, 2019 7:04:36 GMT -5
Looks like the FO gets it . I agree with this move. Time to move on from Leon.
If the Sox wanted to keep Leon then Swihart deserved a shot with another team. We’ll see what happens.
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Post by kevfc89 on Mar 23, 2019 7:50:04 GMT -5
Last year, when everything was on the line they used Vaz over Leon more in October; and it showed to be the right move.
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