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Catcher in 2019 (4/16: Swihart DFA'd)
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Post by telson13 on Jan 8, 2019 23:54:56 GMT -5
All good questions...I really wonder what their internal evaluations are and particularly in light of Eric’s hypothetical. Obviously, the Sox have a high opinion of León relative to his publicly available stats. Makes me wonder who they’d be inclined to trade, and what sort of return they’d expect/demand. It’s really a very interesting “side” story this winter. The two players New York received, Lockett and Haggerty, did not crack their top 30 on MLBPipeline (although maybe they're waiting to unveil new lists at this point). Fangraphs released its Mets list yesterday and put the two prospects at 17 and 18 as FV 40 players. They're 24-year-olds who are basically AAA depth. Nothing exciting. So, Clay Buchholz return x2. I get the sense they’re not interested in trading León at all, and are hoping someone bites on Swihart’s upside. Id much prefer they move Vazquez, but i think this suggests to us at the least that they’re demanding real prospects/pieces in return.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jan 10, 2019 10:23:02 GMT -5
Grandal unexpectedly signing with the Brewers may change things less than you'd think. Since Eric Kratz is a good backup, they now have Manny Pina to trade, and he's cheap and decent. He just replaces Grandal on the list of available starting catchers, for teams that need one.
I think Realmuto is holding up the rest of the market.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jan 10, 2019 14:57:31 GMT -5
Grandal unexpectedly signing with the Brewers may change things less than you'd think. Since Eric Kratz is a good backup, they now have Manny Pina to trade, and he's cheap and decent. He just replaces Grandal on the list of available starting catchers, for teams that need one.
I think Realmuto is holding up the rest of the market.
Realmuto is about to get traded too, so maybe we will have the answer to the catcher situation soon enough.
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Post by michael on Jan 10, 2019 19:49:54 GMT -5
Grandal unexpectedly signing with the Brewers may change things less than you'd think. Since Eric Kratz is a good backup, they now have Manny Pina to trade, and he's cheap and decent. He just replaces Grandal on the list of available starting catchers, for teams that need one.
I think Realmuto is holding up the rest of the market.
Realmuto is about to get traded too, so maybe we will have the answer to the catcher situation soon enough. Especially if he comes to Boston for two of their three catchers and something(s) more. 😉
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Jan 10, 2019 23:42:53 GMT -5
According to a source, the Braves, Dodgers, Astros, Padres, Rays and Reds are considered the front-runners to acquire Realmuto. As it's been all offseason, the Marlins' asking price remains extremely high.
In return, Miami seeks a top prospect and more. In some cases, it would like a catcher with some big league experience to work with a young pitching staff.www.mlb.com/news/6-clubs-in-talks-to-acquire-jt-realmuto/c-302564078?tid=282421090Hopefully not Cafardo's source.
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Post by marrcus on Jan 18, 2019 4:34:09 GMT -5
I don't anticipate having all three (Blake Swihart, Sandy Leon, and Christian Vazquez) on our club Opening Day,'' said Dombrowski prior to Thursday's 80th annual Boston Baseball Writers Dinner. "There's interest, but we still haven't made a deal we feel comfortable making.''
We know who the P'staff's preference is. I'm assuming Blake goes but maybe not.
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Post by Addam603 on Feb 8, 2019 6:39:31 GMT -5
With Realmuto finally moved and pitchers and catchers reporting in the next couple of days, you have to think the shoe is gonna drop in one of our catchers pretty soon.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Feb 8, 2019 7:16:47 GMT -5
With Realmuto finally moved and pitchers and catchers reporting in the next couple of days, you have to think the shoe is gonna drop in one of our catchers pretty soon. Hard to really say if any team is going to trade for say, Swihart soon though. Might have to rely on injuries in spring training to help the Sox here. The teams that need catching help across the league- Indians Dodgers Tigers Rangers Athletics Maybe need help?- Twins Diamonbacks Rockies I'm not sure how many of these teams have relievers to deal. Maybe get a top 10 prospect from one of these teams and call it a day?
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Post by Canseco on Feb 8, 2019 8:05:05 GMT -5
With Realmuto finally moved and pitchers and catchers reporting in the next couple of days, you have to think the shoe is gonna drop in one of our catchers pretty soon. Might have to rely on injuries in spring training to help the Sox here. The teams that need catching help across the league- This is my thought. What’s the rush? Go to/through spring training with all three, let other teams’ needs at catcher be exposed, and insure ourselves in the event of injury.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Feb 8, 2019 9:46:40 GMT -5
Yeah I can't imagine that Swihart is someone's fallback because they didn't get Realmuto.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Feb 8, 2019 10:10:55 GMT -5
The Red Sox will probably showcase Swihart a lot in the exhibition games and if he shows that he's acceptable at least defensively and I suspect he will be (I think there was one spring where he was having some throwing yips for a brief time), then I would anticipate that Swihart gets dealt toward the end of March, like around 3/20 as the season begins 3/28.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Feb 8, 2019 10:30:51 GMT -5
The Red Sox will probably showcase Swihart a lot in the exhibition games and if he shows that he's acceptable at least defensively and I suspect he will be (I think there was one spring where he was having some throwing yips for a brief time), then I would anticipate that Swihart gets dealt toward the end of March, like around 3/20 as the season begins 3/28. But Swihart would have to look really good in spring training for him to command a return of any significance at all... and if he looks great in spring training, why are you going to bail out on a young player you've been developing for a decade in favor of Sandy Leon?
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Feb 8, 2019 11:20:02 GMT -5
The Red Sox will probably showcase Swihart a lot in the exhibition games and if he shows that he's acceptable at least defensively and I suspect he will be (I think there was one spring where he was having some throwing yips for a brief time), then I would anticipate that Swihart gets dealt toward the end of March, like around 3/20 as the season begins 3/28. But Swihart would have to look really good in spring training for him to command a return of any significance at all... and if he looks great in spring training, why are you going to bail out on a young player you've been developing for a decade in favor of Sandy Leon? I honestly don't think the Sox will get a great return. Maybe a guy with good stuff as a reliever who has yet put it together. That's what I expect for Swihart's value. As far as keeping him, I'd be all for it, but if he's not going to have a legit shot at being your starter, there's no sense having him then. He's absolutely wasted as a backup catcher to Vazquez. Cora was treating Vazquez like he was the man at the end of last season - as if the job belongs to him. If that's the case, then Swihart is definitely a goner regardless of how well he does in spring training. Personally I'd rather they keep Swihart and give him a legit shot at taking the catching job away from Vazquez. Vazquez's skills in my opinion translate well to being a guy who can be a backup catcher and take over if Swihart flops or gets hurt. I don't feel the same way about Swihart. I think he could become a starter, but there could be a lengthy adjustment period as far as the pitchers and calling games are concerned and the Sox might not to experience those growing pains. That said, I still would like to see him get a real chance, but would he really get that real legit shot? I doubt that quite honestly. I think the Sox see catcher as a defensive position, like Vazquez's defense, think that he's taking steps on being a better gamecaller, and think that he's a lot better hitter than he showed last year, somebody who could be league average offensively for a catcher.
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Post by soxpatsceltics on Feb 8, 2019 21:47:27 GMT -5
I feel like I'm getting repetitive, but I don't know why the Sox continue to not utilize Swihart as he was meant to be, as the strong half of a rhp/lhp catching platoon. He's always been a good left-handed hitter, 97 wRC+ career vs RHP and 101 last year. Leon can fill the other half and the Sox can move Vaz and his present and future salaries. If the Sox didn't think Swihart had the glove to be a starting catcher, they would have moved him off of catcher or straight up traded him for cents on the dollar a long time ago.
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bosox
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Post by bosox on Feb 8, 2019 23:18:09 GMT -5
But Swihart would have to look really good in spring training for him to command a return of any significance at all... and if he looks great in spring training, why are you going to bail out on a young player you've been developing for a decade in favor of Sandy Leon? I honestly don't think the Sox will get a great return. Maybe a guy with good stuff as a reliever who has yet put it together. That's what I expect for Swihart's value. As far as keeping him, I'd be all for it, but if he's not going to have a legit shot at being your starter, there's no sense having him then. He's absolutely wasted as a backup catcher to Vazquez. Cora was treating Vazquez like he was the man at the end of last season - as if the job belongs to him. If that's the case, then Swihart is definitely a goner regardless of how well he does in spring training. Personally I'd rather they keep Swihart and give him a legit shot at taking the catching job away from Vazquez. Vazquez's skills in my opinion translate well to being a guy who can be a backup catcher and take over if Swihart flops or gets hurt. I don't feel the same way about Swihart. I think he could become a starter, but there could be a lengthy adjustment period as far as the pitchers and calling games are concerned and the Sox might not to experience those growing pains. That said, I still would like to see him get a real chance, but would he really get that real legit shot? I doubt that quite honestly. I think the Sox see catcher as a defensive position, like Vazquez's defense, think that he's taking steps on being a better gamecaller, and think that he's a lot better hitter than he showed last year, somebody who could be league average offensively for a catcher. As it looks right now, I agree in that I don't think the Sox will get a great return for any of the catchers. With the exception of the A's and maybe Dbacks, it looks like most teams, trying to field a competitive team, have already filled their catching spots and while they could perhaps upgrade their depth at the position, I don't think those teams would give up much for any of the Sox catchers. I don't see the O's or Tigers as having any interest. Maybe during Spring Training a team suffers an injury to a catcher and it opens an opportunity to trade one for value.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Feb 12, 2019 20:59:51 GMT -5
Don't have a subscription to the BSJ. Mentions that they were open to shopping anyone of the three catchers in the free part though.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Feb 13, 2019 13:38:22 GMT -5
Don't have a subscription to the BSJ. Mentions that they were open to shopping anyone of the three catchers in the free part though. Goes on to discuss how Leon probably doesn't move because his value to the Sox is larger than his trade value (a point McAdam has made elsewhere), but that a source says the Sox are willing to move Vazquez for the right return. As we've all said all along, who they move depends on what they will get back for each.
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Post by telson13 on Feb 14, 2019 0:43:28 GMT -5
I honestly don't think the Sox will get a great return. Maybe a guy with good stuff as a reliever who has yet put it together. That's what I expect for Swihart's value. As far as keeping him, I'd be all for it, but if he's not going to have a legit shot at being your starter, there's no sense having him then. He's absolutely wasted as a backup catcher to Vazquez. Cora was treating Vazquez like he was the man at the end of last season - as if the job belongs to him. If that's the case, then Swihart is definitely a goner regardless of how well he does in spring training. Personally I'd rather they keep Swihart and give him a legit shot at taking the catching job away from Vazquez. Vazquez's skills in my opinion translate well to being a guy who can be a backup catcher and take over if Swihart flops or gets hurt. I don't feel the same way about Swihart. I think he could become a starter, but there could be a lengthy adjustment period as far as the pitchers and calling games are concerned and the Sox might not to experience those growing pains. That said, I still would like to see him get a real chance, but would he really get that real legit shot? I doubt that quite honestly. I think the Sox see catcher as a defensive position, like Vazquez's defense, think that he's taking steps on being a better gamecaller, and think that he's a lot better hitter than he showed last year, somebody who could be league average offensively for a catcher. As it looks right now, I agree in that I don't think the Sox will get a great return for any of the catchers. With the exception of the A's and maybe Dbacks, it looks like most teams, trying to field a competitive team, have already filled their catching spots and while they could perhaps upgrade their depth at the position, I don't think those teams would give up much for any of the Sox catchers. I don't see the O's or Tigers as having any interest. Maybe during Spring Training a team suffers an injury to a catcher and it opens an opportunity to trade one for value. This is a big reason why I hope they move Vazquez. He has a low AAV, but three years of control. He’s got cost certainty, and is *probably* starting-caliber. If he’s a 1-2 WAR C (and last year is *probably* a fluke; his true talent is, most likely, around 1.5 WAR, plus some framing value), then he’s providing substantial excess value over his contract. His deal would be perfectly fine even for a backup. So, with Swihart’s questions and León having major negative offensive value, I think Vazquez offers the best chance of solid return. If a 45+ FV prospect is worth $5-10M, that’s a low estimate of what Vazquez offers in excess value (3 WAR for 3 years= $20-25M, at 7-8M per win) over his contract. He’s the surest performance and cost bet of the group. If the Sox could get a 45+ guy and a couple low-level lottery ticket throw-ins, that’d be huge. Even a couple 40-45 FV guys with upside would be worth it. The Sox can afford the performance uncertainty offensively because the rest of their lineup is so strong. I doubt there’s any way in hell that happens right now, because of reasons we’ve all discussed. But in reality, there’s almost no way Vazquez isn’t worth his current deal, and a very good chance he’s a minor bargain. When ST is in full swing, somebody’s gonna find themselves with a need.
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Post by telson13 on Feb 14, 2019 0:56:59 GMT -5
Here’s an update to prospect valuation: blogs.fangraphs.com/putting-a-dollar-value-on-prospects-outside-the-top-100/If a team *likes* him, thinking he’s probably a 1-2 WAR player, with additional framing value, he offers $12-36M in excess value over three years. That’s a 45+ and 40 at the low end or a 50 and a 45+ at the high end. I think the latter is unlikely, but if they managed a 1-for-1 for an upper-level 50 FV SP, it would be a great move, especially if they could get a second ancillary player with a big arm. It would address the SP depth issue and provide some future cost certainty, and probably provide a mid-season callup SP option.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Feb 14, 2019 14:12:43 GMT -5
Here’s an update to prospect valuation: blogs.fangraphs.com/putting-a-dollar-value-on-prospects-outside-the-top-100/If a team *likes* him, thinking he’s probably a 1-2 WAR player, with additional framing value, he offers $12-36M in excess value over three years. That’s a 45+ and 40 at the low end or a 50 and a 45+ at the high end. I think the latter is unlikely, but if they managed a 1-for-1 for an upper-level 50 FV SP, it would be a great move, especially if they could get a second ancillary player with a big arm. It would address the SP depth issue and provide some future cost certainty, and probably provide a mid-season callup SP option. Yeah, but you're opening a hole at catcher to close a (future) hole at SP. That puts you in a position to lose the trade even if you get a decent return. I'll stop here because I'm just going to end up repeating myself, but I don't understand why the Red Sox think they have three catchers. They have one.
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Post by telson13 on Feb 14, 2019 16:26:07 GMT -5
Here’s an update to prospect valuation: blogs.fangraphs.com/putting-a-dollar-value-on-prospects-outside-the-top-100/If a team *likes* him, thinking he’s probably a 1-2 WAR player, with additional framing value, he offers $12-36M in excess value over three years. That’s a 45+ and 40 at the low end or a 50 and a 45+ at the high end. I think the latter is unlikely, but if they managed a 1-for-1 for an upper-level 50 FV SP, it would be a great move, especially if they could get a second ancillary player with a big arm. It would address the SP depth issue and provide some future cost certainty, and probably provide a mid-season callup SP option. Yeah, but you're opening a hole at catcher to close a (future) hole at SP. That puts you in a position to lose the trade even if you get a decent return. I'll stop here because I'm just going to end up repeating myself, but I don't understand why the Red Sox think they have three catchers. They have one. Yeah, I think it all comes down to whether one believes in Swihart or not. I suppose there’s a valid “we’re going for a title, maximum risk avoidance is the best strategy” argument too. I hope this doesn’t come across as callous, because there’s infinitely more to life than baseball, but every time I think of the C situation I’m reminded of Daniel Flores, and what an incredibly bright future he seemed to have.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Feb 14, 2019 16:33:52 GMT -5
Vazquez was behind the plate for the bulk of the series against LA. That includes all of the second game, 11 innings of the third - understandably given what a slog that was, 6 in the fourth game when he was replaced by a pinch runner, and all of the last game. That tells me they have a lot of faith in him and given the results I'd say they were justified. The team may decide to trade him, but it would have to be for a meaningful return. As Fenway mentions that would just create a hole they'd have to fill.
Swihart doesn't have anywhere near Vazquez' defensive skills no matter how some try to spin it, but he won't bring back much of value either. So whatever happens, it will be a trade-off. Leon has taken what I thought would be Swihart's innings a few years back. Given the support he has from at least one member of the pitching staff - and likely more - that's probably not going to change.
This sort of squeeze does happen at times, and it won't be something pleasant to fix. Let's see what trader-Dave does.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Feb 14, 2019 22:34:45 GMT -5
Yeah, but you're opening a hole at catcher to close a (future) hole at SP. That puts you in a position to lose the trade even if you get a decent return. I'll stop here because I'm just going to end up repeating myself, but I don't understand why the Red Sox think they have three catchers. They have one. Yeah, I think it all comes down to whether one believes in Swihart or not. Varitek went to the superbowl with Swihart and they seem to be close. He's one guy who believes in him. If the Sox keep Swihart around and play him, he would have been at the same age Varitek took off in his career in Boston.
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mobaz
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Post by mobaz on Feb 15, 2019 8:52:02 GMT -5
I feel like the downside of Swihart and Leon tandum is just too great. Blake caught 14 games last year (43 the year prior). Leon got 14 hits last year (okay 47, but most concentrated in a 6 week hot streak).
Vazquez still has upside, reasonable control and was just fine in a WS domination. I'm fine keeping Blake to see if he is a GUY but I get the keep leon for pitchers sentiment. I will not understand trading Vazquez.
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Post by Canseco on Feb 15, 2019 9:52:53 GMT -5
I feel like the downside of Swihart and Leon tandum is just too great. Blake caught 14 games last year (43 the year prior). Leon got 14 hits last year (okay 47, but most concentrated in a 6 week hot streak). Vazquez still has upside, reasonable control and was just fine in a WS domination. I'm fine keeping Blake to see if he is a GUY but I get the keep leon for pitchers sentiment. I will not understand trading Vazquez. Agreed. All three catchers have flaws, but Vazquez seems the most steady all around. If we can’t find any type of value for Swihart or León, then I’d keep all three, platoon Swihart, and trade Nuñez. Maybe I’m nuts, but that scenario actually appeals to me the most.
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