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2018 Red Sox vs. Yankees ALDS Gameday Thread
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Post by sarasoxer on Oct 15, 2018 12:03:46 GMT -5
Britton would solve our lefty BP issues....but where's the money and he prefers to stay with Yankees.
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Post by Guidas on Oct 15, 2018 12:17:15 GMT -5
Britton would solve our lefty BP issues....but where's the money and he prefers to stay with Yankees. The money presumably comes from not having to pay Kimbrel or Hanley. Also from one of the richest ownership groups in baseball. Personally, I’d take Robertson and plan for Lakins and Feltman to join the pen by June, along with Braiser and Barnes and possibly Wright.
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Post by incandenza on Oct 15, 2018 12:44:54 GMT -5
This podcast, with Parks & Rec and The Good Place creator Michael Schur (who was also Ken Tremendous at firejoemorgan), Joe Posnanski, and Brandon McCarthy, includes some interresting comments by McCarthy, starting around the 11:30 mark, about why he'd rather face the Yankees' lineup than the Red Sox'. Long story short: the Sox lineup seems to function as a unit, where each batter tends to build on the at-bat of the previous guy, whereas the Yankees guys don't do that. Seems like more evidence of how well-coached the Sox are this year.
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Post by James Dunne on Oct 15, 2018 14:25:58 GMT -5
This podcast, with Parks & Rec and The Good Place creator Michael Schur (who was also Ken Tremendous at firejoemorgan), Joe Posnanski, and Brandon McCarthy, includes some interresting comments by McCarthy, starting around the 11:30 mark, about why he'd rather face the Yankees' lineup than the Red Sox'. Long story short: the Sox lineup seems to function as a unit, where each batter tends to build on the at-bat of the previous guy, whereas the Yankees guys don't do that. Seems like more evidence of how well-coached the Sox are this year. Nice. I will bookmark that for later! So something a lot of analysts (especially ex-pitcher analysts) will say is that "a walk is even worse than a solo home run here." Which, I mean that obviously isn't true in terms of run expectancy, so I think it gets the language wrong in an easily mockable way. But I think we all agree that pitches thrown with a man on base are higher stress than pitches thrown with the bases empty. I have no doubt that it is easier for a pitcher to bounce back from a solo homer than it is to face Andrew Benintendi with Mookie Betts on first base. The Red Sox ability to make quality contact with more consistency than the Yankees made them a better offense, despite the fact that they hit significantly fewer home runs. It seems hard to believe, but the Red Sox had the higher slugging percentage. Their Iso was a lot lower, but it wasn't entirely a luck situation - they struck out 15% less, leading to a much higher team batting average, leading to a much higher OBP and slightly higher slugging average. The crux: the Red Sox had 76 more plate appearances with a man on base than the Yankees did, but had 87 fewer strikeouts with a man on. Whether this is better situational hitting or simply better ability to make quality contact in general and the butterfly effect of that. www.baseball-reference.com/play-index/split_stats_lg.cgi?full=1¶ms=bases%7CMen%20On%7CAL%7C2018%7Cbat%7CAB%7C
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Post by rjp313jr on Oct 15, 2018 15:31:12 GMT -5
This podcast, with Parks & Rec and The Good Place creator Michael Schur (who was also Ken Tremendous at firejoemorgan), Joe Posnanski, and Brandon McCarthy, includes some interresting comments by McCarthy, starting around the 11:30 mark, about why he'd rather face the Yankees' lineup than the Red Sox'. Long story short: the Sox lineup seems to function as a unit, where each batter tends to build on the at-bat of the previous guy, whereas the Yankees guys don't do that. Seems like more evidence of how well-coached the Sox are this year. Nice. I will bookmark that for later! So something a lot of analysts (especially ex-pitcher analysts) will say is that "a walk is even worse than a solo home run here." Which, I mean that obviously isn't true in terms of run expectancy, so I think it gets the language wrong in an easily mockable way. Curious.... do we know if the odds are greater of a multi run inning by leading off the inning with a walk versus a solo home run? I ask because if you have a 2 or more run lead then the one run guaranteed from the solo shot doesn’t matter. Curious of what the percentages are and I don’t know where to look something like that up. I suppose it also varies from pitcher to pitcher to some degree, but not sure.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Oct 15, 2018 16:11:22 GMT -5
They probably could have gotten deGrom if the traded Torres. Knowing Cashman, he would probably offer Andujar and a bag of balls. The Yankees just don't pull the trigger anymore like this. Feels great knowing this. Yeah the fact that the Yankees kept their fantastic young core together and lost a five game series because Gary Sanchez got .00003 millimeters under a Craig Kimbrel meatball means they're now a doomed franchise. Like, enjoy the win folks, but "lol Cashman doesn't know what he's doing" takes are wildly off base. The Yankees are a juggernaut and will remain so for the foreseeable future. No Red Sox fan should "feel great" about the season they just had. The Yankees are one Severino Tommy John surgery into being lost for a while and he isn't a guy that can be relied on as a true ACE. They need that guy or they might never win.
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Post by jimed14 on Oct 15, 2018 16:17:20 GMT -5
Yeah the fact that the Yankees kept their fantastic young core together and lost a five game series because Gary Sanchez got .00003 millimeters under a Craig Kimbrel meatball means they're now a doomed franchise. Like, enjoy the win folks, but "lol Cashman doesn't know what he's doing" takes are wildly off base. The Yankees are a juggernaut and will remain so for the foreseeable future. No Red Sox fan should "feel great" about the season they just had. The Yankees are one Severino Tommy John surgery into being lost for a while and he isn't a guy that can be relied on as a true ACE. They need that guy or they might never win. The Red Sox can't rely on most of their pitchers this time of year and they beat them. Who could possibly put up a fight with the Yankees in 2021 and beyond when the Red Sox have to replace (or pay 3x as much for) Sale, Porcello, Kimbrel, Xander, Mookie, ERod, JBJ, etc while their farm system is in the bottom 5 of the league?
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Post by sarasoxer on Oct 15, 2018 17:30:44 GMT -5
Britton would solve our lefty BP issues....but where's the money and he prefers to stay with Yankees. The money presumably comes from not having to pay Kimbrel or Hanley. Also from one of the richest ownership groups in baseball. Personally, I’d take Robertson and plan for Lakins and Feltman to join the pen by June, along with Braiser and Barnes and possibly Wright. Britton is by far the most certain of those mentioned. If we resign Kimbrel....which I hope...it may make it more difficult. Britton knows the Yanks have a great, young core and farm. He's said he wouldn't mind not being the closer in N.Y. The Yanks are 50M under the Sox in payroll. Regardless of losing Hanley, we are likely deeply into surcharge territory. So we probably have no chance...but he would be my choice.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Oct 15, 2018 20:03:23 GMT -5
Yeah the fact that the Yankees kept their fantastic young core together and lost a five game series because Gary Sanchez got .00003 millimeters under a Craig Kimbrel meatball means they're now a doomed franchise. Like, enjoy the win folks, but "lol Cashman doesn't know what he's doing" takes are wildly off base. The Yankees are a juggernaut and will remain so for the foreseeable future. No Red Sox fan should "feel great" about the season they just had. The Yankees are one Severino Tommy John surgery into being lost for a while and he isn't a guy that can be relied on as a true ACE. They need that guy or they might never win. That's absurd.
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Post by rjp313jr on Oct 15, 2018 20:18:29 GMT -5
The Yankees are one Severino Tommy John surgery into being lost for a while and he isn't a guy that can be relied on as a true ACE. They need that guy or they might never win. That's absurd. A guy who can’t be relied on is going to derail them if he gets hurt. What’s so absurd?
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Oct 15, 2018 21:56:45 GMT -5
A guy who can’t be relied on is going to derail them if he gets hurt. What’s so absurd? Any team is worse if it loses it's best starter. This is not a condition unique to the Yankees.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Oct 16, 2018 6:44:09 GMT -5
The Yankees are one Severino Tommy John surgery into being lost for a while and he isn't a guy that can be relied on as a true ACE. They need that guy or they might never win. That's absurd. I think it's likely with the high velocity and sliders that Severino throws. He's been the steadiest pitcher the Yankees have had the past 3 years and if he's gone for 1 and a half to 2 years, well there goes a large part of that Yankees window. I just think that's a huge part that baseball fans look past when they look at the Yankees.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Oct 16, 2018 6:48:07 GMT -5
The Yankees are one Severino Tommy John surgery into being lost for a while and he isn't a guy that can be relied on as a true ACE. They need that guy or they might never win. The Red Sox can't rely on most of their pitchers this time of year and they beat them. Who could possibly put up a fight with the Yankees in 2021 and beyond when the Red Sox have to replace (or pay 3x as much for) Sale, Porcello, Kimbrel, Xander, Mookie, ERod, JBJ, etc while their farm system is in the bottom 5 of the league? Sale was huge against the Yankees. Porcello was big too. That's the interesting part, the future. Dave Dombrowski has retooled in the past. I wonder what he does here. He found Scherzer with the Tigers and took a competitive Tigers team and made them even better. It'll probably start with a trade similar to that to get the Sox back back where they need to be. Either that or a dull 2-3 rebuild and retooling of sorts.
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Post by jmei on Oct 16, 2018 7:03:25 GMT -5
I think it's likely with the high velocity and sliders that Severino throws. He's been the steadiest pitcher the Yankees have had the past 3 years and if he's gone for 1 and a half to 2 years, well there goes a large part of that Yankees window. I just think that's a huge part that baseball fans look past when they look at the Yankees. You could say the same thing about the Red Sox and Sale or the Dodgers and Kershaw. Besides, even if the Yankees lost Severino, they’d still project to be a wild card contender.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Oct 16, 2018 7:05:40 GMT -5
I think it's likely with the high velocity and sliders that Severino throws. He's been the steadiest pitcher the Yankees have had the past 3 years and if he's gone for 1 and a half to 2 years, well there goes a large part of that Yankees window. I just think that's a huge part that baseball fans look past when they look at the Yankees. You could say the same thing about the Red Sox and Sale or the Dodgers and Kershaw. Besides, even if the Yankees lost Severino, they’d still project to be a wild card contender. That's definitely true, but I just think that elbow is due to pop at any minute with the extreme high velocity of Severino, just like it just happened with Kopech. Severino throws some of the hardest pitches in the league and he throws a ton of sliders. Maybe it's just a me thing that thinks this though. Sale I worry about in his 30's because Tommy John is also a wear and tear injury too.
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Post by rjp313jr on Oct 16, 2018 7:10:16 GMT -5
A guy who can’t be relied on is going to derail them if he gets hurt. What’s so absurd? Any team is worse if it loses it's best starter. This is not a condition unique to the Yankees. Guessing you missed the thick dose of sarcasm
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Post by James Dunne on Oct 16, 2018 7:33:28 GMT -5
I think it's likely with the high velocity and sliders that Severino throws. He's been the steadiest pitcher the Yankees have had the past 3 years and if he's gone for 1 and a half to 2 years, well there goes a large part of that Yankees window. The Yankees played .585 ball (equivalent to 95 wins) in games Severino did not pitch. So your theory is that one of the 20 or so best pitchers and baseball will get hurt, and one of the best teams in baseball, with about $45 million in payroll space this offseason, will be doomed by it. And you're projecting the blind spot onto baseball fans?
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Oct 16, 2018 7:52:26 GMT -5
I think it's likely with the high velocity and sliders that Severino throws. He's been the steadiest pitcher the Yankees have had the past 3 years and if he's gone for 1 and a half to 2 years, well there goes a large part of that Yankees window. The Yankees played .585 ball (equivalent to 95 wins) in games Severino did not pitch. So your theory is that one of the 20 or so best pitchers and baseball will get hurt, and one of the best teams in baseball, with about $45 million in payroll space this offseason, will be doomed by it. And you're projecting the blind spot onto baseball fans? Ohh the Yankees will always be competitive, especially in the next 3-4 years, Severino or no Severino, but I question who's going to be the guy that's going to pitch the most important innings of these playoff games the next 3-4 years. Severino has now crapped his pants 2 or more times in huge games and has a postseason ERA of over 6 in his short career. He crapped his pants in Game 3 this year. He crapped his pants in the wildcard game last year. I just think they need a guy like a deGrom or Bumgardner to pitch the most important innings for them. None of these guys will be available in the next 2 years, unless you go out and sacrifice future for it. The Sox pulled the trigger with Sale. I question Cashman will ever do it because of the cost to get one of these guys. I think the blind spot comes in where everyone is expecting Severino to stay healthy, and I'm almost expecting him to get hurt. He throws so dang hard, you know? The Yankees will have money like you said, and they will be better equipped to win the AL East. Once they lengthen out their lineup with probably yet another superstar, and lengthen out their rotation with a few signings, but having that big star in the top of the rotation will be a question for them moving forward unless they trade for him imo. I don't think Kershaw can be that guy for them in his 30's with a bad back. I doubt Kershaw is leaving LA ever too. He's a SoCal guy.
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Post by jmei on Oct 16, 2018 9:20:29 GMT -5
You're talking yourself into circles. First the Yankees would be "lost for a while" without Severino, and now they will always be competitive even without Severino, and oh yeah he's not clutch in the playoffs anyways so they need a stud like Sale (how's he done in the playoffs, by the way). When someone disagrees with you, it's OK to just let it go sometimes.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Oct 16, 2018 10:27:50 GMT -5
You're talking yourself into circles. First the Yankees would be "lost for a while" without Severino, and now they will always be competitive even without Severino, and oh yeah he's not clutch in the playoffs anyways so they need a stud like Sale (how's he done in the playoffs, by the way). When someone disagrees with you, it's OK to just let it go sometimes. It's not circles. It is basically a playoff related point. I probably just need to be more precise with my point. The Yankees will walk backwards into the playoffs Severino or no Severino. They could even walk in backwards in the AL East if the Sox lose players to free agency. Sale went one out shy of giving the Sox a quality start in a game they needed to have in Game 1 of the ALDS and he came out of the bullpen in a closing game where he had a lead. That was huge. I think Severino *can* be a good pitcher in the playoffs, but there are *huge* questions about it. I think they need more certainty at the top of the rotation or they *might* not ever win a championship, which was basically my overall point. Severino's high velocity could turn into injuries and he has been a puddle in big games.
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Post by rjp313jr on Oct 16, 2018 10:40:10 GMT -5
You're talking yourself into circles. First the Yankees would be "lost for a while" without Severino, and now they will always be competitive even without Severino, and oh yeah he's not clutch in the playoffs anyways so they need a stud like Sale (how's he done in the playoffs, by the way). When someone disagrees with you, it's OK to just let it go sometimes. It's not circles. It is basically a playoff related point. I probably just need to be more precise with my point. The Yankees will walk backwards into the playoffs Severino or no Severino. They could even walk in backwards in the AL East if the Sox lose players to free agency. Sale went one out shy of giving the Sox a quality start in a game they needed to have in Game 1 of the ALDS and he came out of the bullpen in a closing game where he had a lead. That was huge. I think Severino *can* be a good pitcher in the playoffs, but there are *huge* questions about it. I think they need more certainty at the top of the rotation or they *might* not ever win a championship, which was basically my overall point. Severino's high velocity could turn into injuries and he has been a puddle in big games. I’d like to point out that Severino is 24. Judge was basically a September call up at the same stage of his career. Severino’s development hasn’t been without its faults but if he were a Red Sox we would be penciling him in as a number 1 for the foreseeable future. His recent struggles seem to stem from tipping pitches which is part of a lot if young players development.
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