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The Red Sox Offseason Thread: Who do you want for 2019?
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Post by greatscottcooper on Oct 19, 2018 20:26:44 GMT -5
I was trying to point out in a somewhat light hearted manner that I think the idea of breaking up the core of a young, historically successful team is .....not wise. The Sox have,by and large, bought good pitching and if that's what you're worried about losing then rest assured they can and will buy more, either with money or prospects if they fail to develop it, but they aren't going to give up their core players thereby creating more holes unless they feel there is no chance to extend them. If and when that time comes, then they do what they must, but that time isn't now. Sorry if you're offended by my style here, but if you want to even consider moving Betts, Bogaerts and Devers you'd better come up with a lot more talent for them than those you posited (or in Machado case a better human being). You're absolutely right, you don't ever want to break up a historically good team. But you have to constantly be improving because if you stand still everyone else gets better. You will lose people to free agency, to injuries, and to regression. You think those guys are bad, that's fine, you're probably right. But again my point is I'd like to see an elite talent. In the next two years we're going to be losing Chris Sale, Rick Porcello, and Evoldi/Pomeranz. Now we can obviously resign those guys, but I'd prefer an upgrade to Evoldi. You don't know if Sale is a lock to come back, or if his arm is going to fall off in two years. There's a ton of elite on the market. Lets go get that.
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Post by maxwellsdemon on Oct 19, 2018 20:36:12 GMT -5
That's fine and all I'm saying is $$$ are a lot cheaper than a talented, homegrown, young core that we know fits together and fits (can handle) Boston. Don't disagree that there is always work to be done - catcher (perhaps Swihart is the answer) first base/third base - (2 of Devers, Chavis, Dalbec?) relief pitching (Lakins, Feltman with Braiser as "closer"?). Reasonable Sale extension (in years if not $). I know we won't have all this work, but I really want to avoid borrowing trouble by messing with the group more than needed.
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Post by soxjim on Oct 19, 2018 22:18:17 GMT -5
If your first response is one of hyperbole and exaggeration then you either have a weak argument or you're purposely being mean and trying to get under ones skin. Honestly, I regret my comment now, maybe I should just delete it because apparently, you are taking it the wrong way. I would like to see the Sox add elite talent. Spitballing and listing possible ways isn't me saying "I definitively want to do this". Actually, I think a specifically made that clear. So you can be hyperbolic, or you can add your own suggestion. Your not wrong, this is a strong team. Why tinker with a 108 win team? Well, because you're constantly losing talent to FA, Age, and injury. We will not be the same team next year as we are losing guys, and the year after we are going to lose a lot more. How do you replace Sale, Porcello, Bogaerts, JBJ, Pomeranz, Kimbrell, and Moreland? You're literally losing 3/5 of your pitching staff within the next two years and you're going to be left with Price and Eduardo Rodriguez. One will be 34, the other will have never started more than 24 games in a season (to date). You're also losing your starting SS, 1B, and what is Pedroia going to look like? You got nothing in the pipeline coming up that is close to a lock to replace those guys. The Sox are going to need to add a starter and a reliever in the offseason. I'd prefer to see an elite talent added. Maybe you're ok with re-signing Evoldi. He looks good now, I'd be rooting for him if we do so, but I'm also a little skeptical about a guy who has had two Tommy Johns. Which one player do you want to see them go after realizing that the Dodgers, Yanks and Philly and even Washington will probably be willing to spend a ton too. Also The SOx go to try to get under the cap in 2020.
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Post by greatscottcooper on Oct 20, 2018 6:55:16 GMT -5
That’s the situation we face every year. There will always be teams competing for top talent. The real issue is if the Sox desire to stay under the cap. You can do that next year, but I don’t see that happening in 2020 while keeping this team together. I think you have to go over the cap, and if you do, why wouldn’t we be interested in the most stacked free agent market in a long time?
I’m not sold on anyone in particular, everyone I like seems to have some type of caveat. But I’d be pretty excited if this team went after a Harper/Machado type. It makes more sense that they would go after some pitching however. I like Corbin, Keuchel, and Kershaw.
If the best argument against signing those guys is everyone else is going to be offering them 30 million per annum, just remember the same is likely true for Sale and Betts when they reach FA. Maybe the team makes it a priority to extend their own guys in the offseason. I’m not the smartest guy in the room, and I’m certainly no GM, but Iam a pretty successful business man and I’ve always had the outlook that if you’re not always trying to grow then you’re falling behind. As I said before we will lose in the next two years to FA, age, injury, and regression. I’d like to see the team stay ahead of the curve and keep their foots on the gas.
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Post by semperfisox on Oct 20, 2018 7:26:52 GMT -5
I would like another big bat to go behind Martinez. How we do that I don’t know haha.
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Post by maxwellsdemon on Oct 20, 2018 7:44:07 GMT -5
If I were the Sox GM my top priorities would be 1. Extend Betts (or resign him when he hits FA)\ 2. Extend Bogaerts or identify a reasonable replacement given Boras 3. Extend Sale but no more than 5 and preferably 4 years eve? n at a higher AAV The reason I don't go after Machado is I believe he is a dirty player, he doesn't always hustle and his attitude in general can disrupt a clubhouse Kershaw versus Sale is tougher, both have health issues now and are heading into decline. Who can adjust better to that and become Verlander 2.0 There is literally no replacement for Betts other than Trout, you will have to pay up big time for him and Harper is going to cost just about as much and is not the player Betts is. I like Eovaldi and think he will come at a reasonable price given 2 TJ surgeries, he's worth the risk because I think the Sox know how to use him wisely. If another pitcher (e.g. Keuchel, Corbin) can be had at fair value that's fine. While greatscottcooper states that a business that isn't growing is falling behind I would point out you don't cannibalize your best assets just to get different ones and there is danger in growing too fast (ie. overrunning the cap and hamstringing yourself for years to come (see: Crawford, Sandoval, Hanley).
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Post by soxjim on Oct 20, 2018 8:51:23 GMT -5
That’s the situation we face every year. There will always be teams competing for top talent. The real issue is if the Sox desire to stay under the cap. You can do that next year, but I don’t see that happening in 2020 while keeping this team together. I think you have to go over the cap, and if you do, why wouldn’t we be interested in the most stacked free agent market in a long time? I’m not sold on anyone in particular, everyone I like seems to have some type of caveat. But I’d be pretty excited if this team went after a Harper/Machado type. It makes more sense that they would go after some pitching however. I like Corbin, Keuchel, and Kershaw. If the best argument against signing those guys is everyone else is going to be offering them 30 million per annum, just remember the same is likely true for Sale and Betts when they reach FA. Maybe the team makes it a priority to extend their own guys in the offseason. I’m not the smartest guy in the room, and I’m certainly no GM, but Iam a pretty successful business man and I’ve always had the outlook that if you’re not always trying to grow then you’re falling behind. As I said before we will lose in the next two years to FA, age, injury, and regression. I’d like to see the team stay ahead of the curve and keep their foots on the gas. I'm all for getting one superstar but not more than that unless you trade other top talent. ANd I don't think the Sox can compete with Kershaw with Machado or Harper. And Kershaw has injury issues too. For me those guys are a pipe dream for the Sox as they try to stay under. ANd I think the Yanks would be nuts not to push for Corbin. As far as Keuchel-- nah. He's another lefty that's fading. His best fit is whht Houston anyways imo. I think the Yanks should go all in for COrbin and the SOx already have 3 lefties. Though that doesn't matter as much. We have 2020 to consider. Can't keep blowing past the cap every year. It gets ugly if Sox go over in 2020. As for Betts - Sox have him after 2020 so that isn't the same. As for Sale-- I'd pass on signing him for $30m.
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Post by jimed14 on Oct 20, 2018 8:51:49 GMT -5
There's no way in hell the Red Sox are even going to call Machado's or Harper's agents. Where do people think the budget is coming from?
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Post by jiant2520 on Oct 20, 2018 9:12:28 GMT -5
That’s the situation we face every year. There will always be teams competing for top talent. The real issue is if the Sox desire to stay under the cap. You can do that next year, but I don’t see that happening in 2020 while keeping this team together. I think you have to go over the cap, and if you do, why wouldn’t we be interested in the most stacked free agent market in a long time? I’m not sold on anyone in particular, everyone I like seems to have some type of caveat. But I’d be pretty excited if this team went after a Harper/Machado type. It makes more sense that they would go after some pitching however. I like Corbin, Keuchel, and Kershaw. If the best argument against signing those guys is everyone else is going to be offering them 30 million per annum, just remember the same is likely true for Sale and Betts when they reach FA. Maybe the team makes it a priority to extend their own guys in the offseason. I’m not the smartest guy in the room, and I’m certainly no GM, but Iam a pretty successful business man and I’ve always had the outlook that if you’re not always trying to grow then you’re falling behind. As I said before we will lose in the next two years to FA, age, injury, and regression. I’d like to see the team stay ahead of the curve and keep their foots on the gas. I'm all for getting one superstar but not more than that unless you trade other top talent. ANd I don't think the Sox can compete with Kershaw with Machado or Harper. And Kershaw has injury issues too. For me those guys are a pipe dream for the Sox as they try to stay under. ANd I think the Yanks would be nuts not to push for Corbin. As far as Keuchel-- nah. He's another lefty that's fading. His best fit is whht Houston anyways imo. I think the Yanks should go all in for COrbin and the SOx already have 3 lefties. Though that doesn't matter as much. We have 2020 to consider. Can't keep blowing past the cap every year. It gets ugly if Sox go over in 2020. As for Betts - Sox have him after 2020 so that isn't the same. As for Sale-- I'd pass on signing him for $30m. Agree on most all points
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Post by jimed14 on Oct 20, 2018 9:30:18 GMT -5
If the Red Sox are going to do anything big in the offseason, it would probably be trading for guys with a year or two left on their contract because they HAVE to reset the luxury tax penalty in 2021 at the latest. I'm thinking of someone like Realmuto or Goldshmidt. The penalties get absurd the more years you go over. John Henry isn't going to approve a $450 million budget. Personally, the only thing I want is extensions. I also think they have to re-commit to the farm system pretty hard and soon. It's why they are as good as they are.
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Post by jiant2520 on Oct 20, 2018 10:10:10 GMT -5
I don't see Price opting out. If Sale wants 30 mil per, I don't see Boston being able have both in the rotation for around 65 million in 2020 and 2021, while staying under the limit.
This does not even take into account the resigning of Bogey, Betts, Bradley, Barnes, Porcello or Kimbrel. I know at least a couple of these guys are not resigned, but we then need a cheaper alternative, so its not as if whomever is not resigned, we save all the money from them leaving.
Plus, we have other FA too: Kelly, Pearce, Eovaldi, Moreland, Leon... they may want a couple of these guys back too...
There will be some very hard decisions after 2019. Earlier in this thread I mentioned Porcello having a better chance of staying than Sale. My reasoning is we may be able to get Porcello on a 3/4 yr deal for around 18 mil per. If Sale asks for Price money, I am not on board.
If you ask me after 2019 what would I want...
Sale for say 5/175 or Bradley and Porcello for say 4/60 and 4/80.... 35 mil.
I think Sale is the better player, but I think the other two are more dependable late in the year. Sale also has more trade value, which we could explore at the 2019 deadline to restock. Maybe a young starter and a couple prospects...
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Oct 20, 2018 10:26:46 GMT -5
If the Red Sox are going to do anything big in the offseason, it would probably be trading for guys with a year or two left on their contract because they HAVE to reset the luxury tax penalty in 2021 at the latest. I'm thinking of someone like Realmuto or Goldshmidt. The penalties get absurd the more years you go over. John Henry isn't going to approve a $450 million budget. Personally, the only thing I want is extensions. I also think they have to re-commit to the farm system pretty hard and soon. It's why they are as good as they are. The only guy that interests me outside of the organization is probably a bullpen arm or two and Daniel Murphy. He would be perfect on a cheap two year deal. It's all about extensions.
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Oct 20, 2018 10:39:35 GMT -5
I think we should reset the luxury tax after 2019 and possibly even rebuild after that year. It makes too much sense. I agree now is not the time to spend big.
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Post by elbochie on Oct 20, 2018 11:09:13 GMT -5
Cruz for DH? We have JDM already. We can play without a 2B and have double DH, so there.. Pedroia? Could get Kinsler back for a few million...you're right about the DH..
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Post by elbochie on Oct 20, 2018 11:11:00 GMT -5
nm
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Post by jdb on Oct 20, 2018 12:04:58 GMT -5
It’s should be a fun offseason. With Betts/Xander/Sale coming due for extensions I could see a trade of a higher priced starter. Porcello makes sense but there’s a lot of teams anxious to spend like Atlanta, White Sox and Phillies I wonder if Price could get moved? Maybe a package with Swihart (I think he’s the odd man out) or get a shorter term 1B contract coming back.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Oct 20, 2018 12:10:30 GMT -5
We can play without a 2B and have double DH, so there.. Pedroia? Could get Kinsler back for a few million...you're right about the DH.. Kinsler might be done. I don't want him back. All he brings is the glove.
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Post by rivenp on Oct 20, 2018 12:18:36 GMT -5
i find it funny how many people are acting like boston is some small-market team...the only way boston trades anyone of any importance off the mlb roster for prospects is if they look like they aren't going to make the playoffs at the trade deadline. you don't trade a porcello for prospects over the winter unless you are able to bring in someone who is better than porcello and considering the budget constraints that isn't likely to happen because you aren't getting someone better for less than what porcello costs.
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Post by rivenp on Oct 20, 2018 12:32:11 GMT -5
Pedroia? Could get Kinsler back for a few million...you're right about the DH.. Kinsler might be done. I don't want him back. All he brings is the glove.
you don't need a kinsler for the regular season next year when you already have a holt and lin on the roster...you wait and see what pedroia has left and then decide on a course of action.
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Post by jdb on Oct 20, 2018 12:33:34 GMT -5
i find it funny how many people are acting like boston is some small-market team...the only way boston trades anyone of any importance off the mlb roster for prospects is if they look like they aren't going to make the playoffs at the trade deadline. you don't trade a porcello for prospects over the winter unless you are able to bring in someone who is better than porcello and considering the budget constraints that isn't likely to happen because you aren't getting someone better for less than what porcello costs. Dom traded Porcello once before entering the last year of a deal. I could see him trading him, signing Eovaldi and signing a RP for what Porcello is due.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Oct 20, 2018 12:43:16 GMT -5
i find it funny how many people are acting like boston is some small-market team...the only way boston trades anyone of any importance off the mlb roster for prospects is if they look like they aren't going to make the playoffs at the trade deadline. you don't trade a porcello for prospects over the winter unless you are able to bring in someone who is better than porcello and considering the budget constraints that isn't likely to happen because you aren't getting someone better for less than what porcello costs. Dom traded Porcello once before entering the last year of a deal. I could see him trading him, signing Eovaldi and signing a RP for what Porcello is due. Dombrowski trading Porcello for a elite reliever with some control would help save the prospects and save on a bullpen arm in free agency. Hopefully a prospect can be added to the deal from the team acquiring Porcello.
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Post by rivenp on Oct 20, 2018 13:07:07 GMT -5
Dom traded Porcello once before entering the last year of a deal. I could see him trading him, signing Eovaldi and signing a RP for what Porcello is due. Dombrowski trading Porcello for a elite reliever with some control would help save the prospects and save on a bullpen arm in free agency. Hopefully a prospect can be added to the deal from the team acquiring Porcello. who trades an elite reliever with control plus prospects for one year of porcello? the only reason to trade an elite reliever would be if your team is rebuilding and isn't going to make the playoffs...in which case you want prospects back and not one year of porcello.
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Post by greatscottcooper on Oct 20, 2018 13:11:07 GMT -5
I definitely don't have all the answers, but I definitely disagree that now is the time to "hold back". When you have a championship caliber team it's literally the time to spend. If for no other reason, this team should be held together and guys should be extended. I don't think we can extend everyone, but World Series are worth plenty of penalties.
I like the ideal of adding a Goldshmidt, 1B is an obvious area we can upgrade and where we have no one in the pipeline, but I'm almost more inclined to think our prospects would be better spent on pitching. We can budget around extending guys like Betts/JBJ/Bogaerts/JDM. To be clear, I don't think we can extend all 4 of those guys, I'm saying out of those four we need to see who we can extend and get a deal done.
What does the trade market look like for RHSP?
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Post by rivenp on Oct 20, 2018 13:20:12 GMT -5
i find it funny how many people are acting like boston is some small-market team...the only way boston trades anyone of any importance off the mlb roster for prospects is if they look like they aren't going to make the playoffs at the trade deadline. you don't trade a porcello for prospects over the winter unless you are able to bring in someone who is better than porcello and considering the budget constraints that isn't likely to happen because you aren't getting someone better for less than what porcello costs. Dom traded Porcello once before entering the last year of a deal. I could see him trading him, signing Eovaldi and signing a RP for what Porcello is due. yes he did, but that was because the tigers weren't going anywhere and needed outfield offense more = cespedes...a completely different situation compared to the red sox.
the red sox already have a bunch of question marks in the starting rotation...do you really want to remove as close of a sure thing you have in porcello for another high risk guy in eovaldi??? adding eovaldi is one thing...swapping him for porcello is another entirely.
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Post by malynn19 on Oct 20, 2018 13:24:47 GMT -5
Sign Kimbrel Eovaldi and Sale, try to extend any of the eligible killer Bs. Love Pearce but Dalbec and Chavis are coming. Feltman and Lakins should be ready and Darwinson not too far behind. If we sign any FAs it would be Relievers.
We won 108 games without Sale, Erod, Raffi, and Wright who are all much better than their replacements. Not saying we will win 110 games but I see another 100 plus season. Keep drafting and signing good talent and we should be good for another 5 years.
These are not the Yawkeys or Lou Gorman's Red Sox. We may not be worth more than the Yankees but our owner has deeper pockets.
One last thing, I would look into Degrom. If we can get him without giving up Raffi, a package of Erod, Chavis, Ockimey, CV, Mata and "fill in the blank") then do it or at least drive the price up for the Yankees or Astros.
Or just buy some Magic Beans from Jim Halpert.
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