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The Red Sox Offseason Thread: Who do you want for 2019?
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Post by rivenp on Oct 20, 2018 13:30:55 GMT -5
I definitely don't have all the answers, but I definitely disagree that now is the time to "hold back". When you have a championship caliber team it's literally the time to spend. If for no other reason, this team should be held together and guys should be extended. I don't think we can extend everyone, but World Series are worth plenty of penalties. I like the ideal of adding a Goldshmidt, 1B is an obvious area we can upgrade and where we have no one in the pipeline, but I'm almost more inclined to think our prospects would be better spent on pitching. We can budget around extending guys like Betts/JBJ/Bogaerts/JDM. To be clear, I don't think we can extend all 4 of those guys, I'm saying out of those four we need to see who we can extend and get a deal done. What does the trade market look like for RHSP? red sox don't have the farm system to realistically trade for a top notch cost-controlled pitcher...you would have to bring devers and rodriguez into the conversation.
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Post by Guidas on Oct 20, 2018 13:32:48 GMT -5
Moves
Buy: Eovaldi Corbin* Lowrie (only if they can get him on a 2 yr deal with a team option for 3rd year). Delete Nuñez. Pearce
Lots of moving parts in the pitching area. Sale, Price, Erod and Wright have all spent real time on DL so I believe Sox need 2, #2 or better starters. I also believe if Sale has shoulder issues of any kind they let him walk next year. To that end -
*If Sale's shoulder turns out to need surgery I would either buy Corbin too or - and I don't want to do this but - try to trade Devers for a high level pitcher to a team craving offense and control. My two main targets would be Snell or Nola - not sure the Phillies would bite at that but Tampa might. This lets you get some reset $$$ while not limiting quality. It will mandate getting Donaldson on a 1 year "pillow" deal if possible or relegate Lowrie to 3rd and spelling him with Holt or Lin (Delete Nuñez) until Chavis or Dalbec can seize the position.
With Eovaldi and and the trade you don't need to trade Porcello for an MLB ready or near ready prospect in a position of need, but you could and even have that position of need be a starter. Acquiring Corbin could require you to trade Porcello to reduce salary. One of Vazquez and Swihart need to be traded, too. I would trade Vazquez and make Swihart the starter.
Brasier becomes the closer. Lakins and Hernandez go into the pen (unless Sox genuinely believe Hernandez will be more than a #5/4 starter). Feltman comes up in June or so. I would also spend some cash - but not closer cash - on a 7th/8th inning guy.
If Pedroia is broken/retires, Lowrie/Holt fill that role (and I would try to get Chavis AAA reps at 2nd just to see).
Salary Relief 2019 Pomeranz, Kimbrel, Kelly, Nuñez, Hanley all off the books.
$50.25M
If Vazquez is traded add $2.85M. If Pedroia retires (unlikely but given that surgery (see Wright, David) possible) - add another $15.12M
Challenges - other than the ratty state of the pitching staff's health, JD opting out after 2019 season. I renegotiate now and give him an extra 5 Mil a year guaranteed.
With arb and the free agent list I have above - if you buy Eovaldi AND Corbin - payroll will likely go up with these deletions. But if you add Corbin or trade Devers for a pre-arb stud, you can delete Porcello and maybe reset this year.
But I prefer to buy, and 2020 tells you why.
Salary Relief 2020 This becomes your reset year. Basically: Sale (unless his shoulder is pristine, otherwise you gotta let him walk), Porcello, Panda all off the books. That alone leaves you with:
$61.625M
Org also picks up $14.27M for letting Castillo walk - doesn't count against your LuxTax ave, but hey, it's cash you can bank into 2021.
Challenges - Resigning Xander (I would do that; cost approx. 5yrs X $20M a year); Finding 1st baseman (internal/trade).
Mookie one year from Free Agency. I believe Mookie is going to the highest bidder. I am not sure that will be Boston. I don't think they will get pre-emptive and offer him what Machado/Harper get, which is what his agent will want. Tough call but I think he's gone. If they think so too they can trade him for a bucket of prospects or just take the QO pick.
So after 2019, barring a major injury to a star player and a Stanton-like extension for Mookie, the rest of the roster does not require a major upgrade - i.e. nothing more than a couple relievers, a first baseman and maybe a 4/5 starter. So this is your re-set year. Should be about $10M below the tax even with the adds of 2019 and arb. More than that if they had the balls to trade Mookie if they can't extend him.
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Post by rivenp on Oct 20, 2018 13:37:52 GMT -5
One last thing, I would look into Degrom. If we can get him without giving up Raffi, a package of Erod, Chavis, Ockimey, CV, Mata and "fill in the blank") then do it or at least drive the price up for the Yankees or Astros. be realistic...sox don't have the prospects to get a degrom without including devers...simply look what it took to get sale. you can't replace quality with quantity...besides, the current entire top 10 probably isn't worth moncada/kopech.
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Post by jimed14 on Oct 20, 2018 14:02:46 GMT -5
i find it funny how many people are acting like boston is some small-market team...the only way boston trades anyone of any importance off the mlb roster for prospects is if they look like they aren't going to make the playoffs at the trade deadline. you don't trade a porcello for prospects over the winter unless you are able to bring in someone who is better than porcello and considering the budget constraints that isn't likely to happen because you aren't getting someone better for less than what porcello costs. They aren't a small market team, but they also don't have an unlimited budget forever. At some point, the luxury tax has to be reset. Even the Yankees did it this year.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Oct 20, 2018 14:21:23 GMT -5
I'm sorry but some of you seem to want super teams! The Red Sox need two #2 or better pitchers. OMG they had 4 pitchers in the top 40 of bwar last year. As it stands now they have a crap load of options for 5th starter with a good amount of depth. They idea of needing a #2 or better pitcher for your 5th spot is crazy! I'm all for getting depth, but wow. Our third and 4th pitchers this years were top 40 guys. Almost every team would love to have a Wright and Johnson combo for the 5th spot!
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Oct 20, 2018 14:40:50 GMT -5
MovesBuy: Eovaldi Corbin* Lowrie (only if they can get him on a 2 yr deal with a team option for 3rd year). Delete Nuñez. Pearce Lots of moving parts in the pitching area. Sale, Price, Erod and Wright have all spent real time on DL so I believe Sox need 2, #2 or better starters. I also believe if Sale has shoulder issues of any kind they let him walk next year. To that end - *If Sale's shoulder turns out to need surgery I would either buy Corbin too or - and I don't want to do this but - try to trade Devers for a high level pitcher to a team craving offense and control. My two main targets would be Snell or Nola - not sure the Phillies would bite at that but Tampa might. This lets you get some reset $$$ while not limiting quality. It will mandate getting Donaldson on a 1 year "pillow" deal if possible or relegate Lowrie to 3rd and spelling him with Holt or Lin (Delete Nuñez) until Chavis or Dalbec can seize the position. With Eovaldi and and the trade you don't need to trade Porcello for an MLB ready or near ready prospect in a position of need, but you could and even have that position of need be a starter. Acquiring Corbin could require you to trade Porcello to reduce salary. One of Vazquez and Swihart need to be traded, too. I would trade Vazquez and make Swihart the starter. Brasier becomes the closer. Lakins and Hernandez go into the pen (unless Sox genuinely believe Hernandez will be more than a #5/4 starter). Feltman comes up in June or so. I would also spend some cash - but not closer cash - on a 7th/8th inning guy. If Pedroia is broken/retires, Lowrie/Holt fill that role (and I would try to get Chavis AAA reps at 2nd just to see). Salary Relief 2019Pomeranz, Kimbrel, Kelly, Nuñez, Hanley all off the books. $50.25MIf Vazquez is traded add $2.85M. If Pedroia retires (unlikely but given that surgery (see Wright, David) possible) - add another $15.12M Challenges - other than the ratty state of the pitching staff's health, JD opting out after 2019 season. I renegotiate now and give him an extra 5 Mil a year guaranteed. With arb and the free agent list I have above - if you buy Eovaldi AND Corbin - payroll will likely go up with these deletions. But if you add Corbin or trade Devers for a pre-arb stud, you can delete Porcello and maybe reset this year. But I prefer to buy, and 2020 tells you why. Salary Relief 2020 This becomes your reset year. Basically: Sale (unless his shoulder is pristine, otherwise you gotta let him walk), Porcello, Panda all off the books. That alone leaves you with: $61.625MOrg also picks up $14.27M for letting Castillo walk - doesn't count against your LuxTax ave, but hey, it's cash you can bank into 2021. Challenges - Resigning Xander (I would do that; cost approx. 5yrs X $20M a year); Finding 1st baseman (internal/trade). Mookie one year from Free Agency. I believe Mookie is going to the highest bidder. I am not sure that will be Boston. I don't think they will get pre-emptive and offer him what Machado/Harper get, which is what his agent will want. Tough call but I think he's gone. If they think so too they can trade him for a bucket of prospects or just take the QO pick. So after 2019, barring a major injury to a star player and a Stanton-like extension for Mookie, the rest of the roster does not require a major upgrade - i.e. nothing more than a couple relievers, a first baseman and maybe a 4/5 starter. So this is your re-set year. Should be about $10M below the tax even with the adds of 2019 and arb. More than that if they had the balls to trade Mookie if they can't extend him. Given what I've seen for numbers, you are going to blow past the luxury tax line signing those 4 guys. What are you expecting them to sign for? Given the top payroll teams reset this year, I don't expect the same offseason. There will be major competition for all four of those guys and it will take big deals to sign them. 7/8 innings guys get paid, gotta be like 10 million for two of them if you want good ones and you would if you are just letting Kimbrel walk and not adding any guys with elite past performance. For example Joe Kelly is like a 5 million a year guy or close to it. Signing Corbin and trading Porcello is most likely going to add money, he was 15th in bwar and last year was almost top 40 the year before. I'd rather just keep Porcello, then giving out another big long-term deal to a pitcher with a Sale contract in the future.
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Post by greatscottcooper on Oct 20, 2018 15:08:28 GMT -5
People also have to realize that our stars reaching free agency in their 20’s aren’t resigning here for 4-5 years. With few caveats, that never happens. If you want guy like Betts, Bogaerts, and Sale to re-sign you will have to go somewhere in the 7-9 year range.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Oct 20, 2018 15:11:21 GMT -5
Dombrowski trading Porcello for a elite reliever with some control would help save the prospects and save on a bullpen arm in free agency. Hopefully a prospect can be added to the deal from the team acquiring Porcello. who trades an elite reliever with control plus prospects for one year of porcello? the only reason to trade an elite reliever would be if your team is rebuilding and isn't going to make the playoffs...in which case you want prospects back and not one year of porcello. Wade Miley fetched the same kind of package. Carson Smith was a elite reliever at the time, despite his fall since then. Innings eater starting pitchers hold a ton of value, just as much as elite relievers. They give you 3 times as many innings.
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Post by jdb on Oct 20, 2018 15:47:56 GMT -5
FWIW Red Sox payroll on twitter tweeted a few days back we’re at $220-223M before any moves.
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Post by greatscottcooper on Oct 20, 2018 16:09:19 GMT -5
Whatever, you guys are probably right. Maybe I don’t weigh chemistry and attitude as much as I should.It just gets easy to get all hot and bothered imagining a lineup with Betts/JDM/Devers/Machado.
As good as this pitching is we do have question marks. We have a lot of guys coming back from injury. Wright could look like a AAA knuckleballer or an all star next year. Johnson and Valesquez are great depth options but can either pitch 32 games? Maybe I’m expecting too much from the 5th spot.
The more I think about the more I like Evoldi, especially to replace Pomeranz and he should be had for cheap in next years market. Still between his injuries and others I don’t have a lot of faith in this rotation staying healthy. That’s exactly what happened down the stretch for us. To be fair, it didn’t seem to matter as this team is plowing ahead now but If the injuries stack up earlier in the season for us October could be looking much different. Remember, we have another 100 win team in our division that is going to get better. Maybe the odd man out should be ERod.
This might be a very unpopular opinion here but think about it. He’s never pitched more than 24 starts a season. He gets injured every season. He’s like Buchholz, except he’s still actually good when he’s healthy. If Devers is your guy at 3rd then Chavis is expendable there. I’m wondering what a package of Chavis/Erod/Mata gets you.
Hopefully a cost controlled RHP who can slide into the middle of your rotation and give you innings on the cheap. This keeps your core intact, doesn’t cost you money, and reduces some redundancy in your system.
Then I’d focus on extending some of our core talent and add a relief pitcher. If you guys think that’s dumb then whatevs. I’m 24 hours removed from having surgery and I’m still high AF.
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Post by jiant2520 on Oct 20, 2018 18:35:05 GMT -5
I would let Kimbrel walk, unless he takes 4/52.
Kinsler, Nunez and Pomeranz are gone.
Offer Kelly and Pearce one year 5 mil deals.
KEEP PORCELLO.
Offer Eovaldi a 3/45.
Sale, Price, Porcello, Rodriguez and Eovaldi as the starters.
Braiser, Barnes, Kelly, Hembree, Johnson, Velasquez and a FA in the pen.
Workman/Scott and some younger players as call ups.
Betts, Bradley and Benny in the OF
Moreland, Pedroia, Bogey and Devers in the IF
JD Martinez as the DH
Leon and Vazquez/Swihart at C.
Pearce, Holt and Lin on the bench.
I would trade Swihart or Vazquez for a RP.
For 2020....
I would look at Devers perhaps moving to 1B in 2020, letting Moreland walk.
Dalbec or Chavis can play 3B.
Chavis could replace Peace after next year, where Dalbec, Devers and Chavis rotate at 1B/3B.
Resign Bogey, if its not 30 mil per. Maybe Porcello and Sale, if reasonable. Bradley gets resigned too....
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Post by rivenp on Oct 20, 2018 18:45:27 GMT -5
who trades an elite reliever with control plus prospects for one year of porcello? the only reason to trade an elite reliever would be if your team is rebuilding and isn't going to make the playoffs...in which case you want prospects back and not one year of porcello. Wade Miley fetched the same kind of package. Carson Smith was a elite reliever at the time, despite his fall since then. Innings eater starting pitchers hold a ton of value, just as much as elite relievers. They give you 3 times as many innings. wade miley had two years left on his contract at 7.5M per year and i didn't consider carson smith an elite reliever...he was coming off a great year no doubt, but it was his first year and he was already considered high risk at the time and that's not even considering the volatile nature of relievers in general.
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Post by rivenp on Oct 20, 2018 18:50:03 GMT -5
Offer Eovaldi a 3/45. Sale, Price, Porcello, Rodriguez and Eovaldi as the starters. at this rate...you really think that will be enough to keep eovaldi???
keep in mind rich hill got 3/48 at age 37 with similar injury history
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Oct 20, 2018 19:16:25 GMT -5
Wade Miley fetched the same kind of package. Carson Smith was a elite reliever at the time, despite his fall since then. Innings eater starting pitchers hold a ton of value, just as much as elite relievers. They give you 3 times as many innings. wade miley had two years left on his contract at 7.5M per year and i didn't consider carson smith an elite reliever...he was coming off a great year no doubt, but it was his first year and he was already considered high risk at the time and that's not even considering the volatile nature of relievers in general. There are factors that made a guy like Miley more attractive, like the contract, but Rick Porcello is just a way better pitcher and should be more attractive, even with less control. I considered Smith a elite reliever, heck I still think he can get there if the lambrum thing isn't career threatening (it could be, only the Sox medical staff knows more clearly). He had elite groundball and strikeout rates.
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Post by malynn19 on Oct 20, 2018 19:25:18 GMT -5
One last thing, I would look into Degrom. If we can get him without giving up Raffi, a package of Erod, Chavis, Ockimey, CV, Mata and "fill in the blank") then do it or at least drive the price up for the Yankees or Astros. be realistic...sox don't have the prospects to get a degrom without including devers...simply look what it took to get sale. you can't replace quality with quantity...besides, the current entire top 10 probably isn't worth moncada/kopech. Why? Cause they are not ranked? LOL. And what do we know? What do you know? I remember someone here, a Moderator, that said that for us to get Stanton that trade would start with Betts, look it up. Red Sox Get Curt Schilling; Diamondbacks Get Cassey Fossum, Brandon Lyon, Jorge de la Rosa, Michael Gross Orioles Get Adam Jones, George Sherill, Chris Tillman, Kameron Mickolio, Tony Butler; Mariners Get Erik Bedard Phillies trade Cliff Lee to Mariners for Phillippe Aumont, Tyson Gillies and J.C. Ramirez Stanton and cash considerations from the Marlins for Starlin Castro and minor leaguers Jorge Guzmán and José Devers. Donaldson to the Toronto Blue Jays for Brett Lawrie, Kendall Graveman, Sean Nolin, and Franklin Barreto and BTW Sale > Degrom, younger, better (believe it or not) has less of an injury history and has faced tougher competition. And it never hurts to ask, but I will go back to fantasy land thanks for keeping it 100 with me, .
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Oct 20, 2018 19:41:54 GMT -5
I think there's a 70/30 chance Price opts out (the 70 percent thinking he stays, the 30 percent thinking he opts out) and really we have no idea what happens this offseason until we find this answer for sure out.
He would be one of the 3 best starters on the market if he did opt out (4 if Kershaw opts out, but I don't see it) . There's a ton of teams always looking for starting pitchers. He could bank on a 5 year deal for something like a 140+ million dollar deal, I can definitely see it. I could see a team like the Cardinals or Milwaukee offering that.
I think the Yankees will sign Corbin and Keuchel and suck up most of the talented free agent starting pitching class, which might create a lucrative situation for Price for the teams who miss out on both those pitchers.
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Post by greatscottcooper on Oct 20, 2018 19:56:41 GMT -5
If Price does opt out we kind of have to be more aggressive in the starting pitching market, right?
Is anyone comfortable with:
Sale Porcello Rodriguez Johnson Wright?
That could be a good rotation, it could also be pretty bad, injured, and without depth.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Oct 20, 2018 20:09:04 GMT -5
If Price does opt out we kind of have to be more aggressive in the starting pitching market, right? Is anyone comfortable with: Sale Porcello Rodriguez Johnson Wright? That could be a good rotation, it could also be pretty bad, injured, and without depth. If Price opts out, I would fully expect the Sox to be all in on Eovaldi. The Porcello trade talks would die too. The Sox would need him in this case.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Oct 20, 2018 21:09:35 GMT -5
If Price does opt out we kind of have to be more aggressive in the starting pitching market, right? Is anyone comfortable with: Sale Porcello Rodriguez Johnson Wright? That could be a good rotation, it could also be pretty bad, injured, and without depth. If Price opts out, I would fully expect the Sox to be all in on Eovaldi. The Porcello trade talks would die too. The Sox would need him in this case. You really think a team offers him a big deal?
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Post by soxjim on Oct 20, 2018 21:12:50 GMT -5
The top thing to do is sign Eovaldi. He balances the staff with right vs left. Once you get Eovaldi - you've just made the team better because next year you'd have a whole season with him and expect Sale, ERod to give you more as well as Wright which means less stress on the bullpen and less starts from Johnson/Velazquez/ and any minor leaguers. All these starters can pitch in the bullpen to come playoff time. So with the hitting and this starting pitching -- this would still be a great team wouldn't it? And now the SOx can make moves during the season and not be as strapped/concerned due to cap issues in 2019 or 2020.
Also, instead of overpaying for position free agents go after Betts and Xander again extremely hard. Those are the two guys Sox need to make a big push for. Not Harper, not Machado and not Kershaw etc. You can't go over in 2020. And please don't sign Kimbrel unless it's a 1 year deal. He is declining. His trending is a bad sign.
Keep the basics of a strong hitting team and strong starting pitching. See what Barnes and Brazier can do with maybe one FA much less expensive than Kimbrel realizing SOx have Feltman looming as well as the starters able to make the bullpen formidable come playoff time. If that fails you can make a trade. The SOx shouldn't limit themselves during the season because they went nuts to start the season with free agents . This is one of the great teams ever and several key players were hurt. SO next year SOx are loaded too. Try to find more Eovaldi's and Pearce's so you can fight again in 2020 without getting draconian penalties.
**I'm very interested with many of the infield FA's to see if they can also play 1st, 2b and 3rd. Id like someone who can hit lh pitching. I love what Pearce has done and what he is. But I'm not sure he can sustain next year. But he has been terrific this post season as well as Eovaldi. Pearce and Eovaldi have proven that you don't need a team filled with big names.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Oct 20, 2018 21:13:43 GMT -5
If Price opts out, I would fully expect the Sox to be all in on Eovaldi. The Porcello trade talks would die too. The Sox would need him in this case. You really think a team offers him a big deal? The key thing is if Price's agent thinks he can get a bigger deal, maybe adding a extra year. I wouldn't bet on it, but wouldn't completely rule it out either. If Kershaw doesn't opt out, he is the third best pitcher in this market and teams will have the money to spend. Braves, Phillies, Yankees, Brewers, Cardinals, and maybe even the Angels.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Oct 20, 2018 21:25:55 GMT -5
You got to remember, it's a opt out. I'm not sure if tampering goes on, but the agent has a full week to figure out the future of Price's next 4-5 years (which will basically be the end of his career).
I don't expect the Sox to blink and offer anything to get him to stay, no way.
The money is great on the remainder on Price's deal, but I think there's a decent shot he can beat it.
It's all about how comfortable he is in Boston too. Maybe he risks a opt out and risks a couple million in his next deal, but maybe he doesn't want to put up with Boston anymore with all the lightning rod drama he creates with the media here.
Normally I'd think no chance on a player who has declined from his Cy Young form of 4 years ago (with velocity and injury questions), but Price's whole career in Boston has been volatile up until Game 5 in the 2018 ALCS.
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Post by soxjim on Oct 20, 2018 21:31:48 GMT -5
If Price does opt out we kind of have to be more aggressive in the starting pitching market, right? Is anyone comfortable with: Sale Porcello Rodriguez Johnson Wright? That could be a good rotation, it could also be pretty bad, injured, and without depth. I think it near 99% (I just threw out a number. IMO he is no doubt staying.) he stays with Boston therefore getting into the "if" statement is a bit premature.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Oct 20, 2018 21:38:10 GMT -5
Just to add in a separate post, if I had my preference, I would prefer that Price opts out and to keep Porcello.
I have no ill will towards Price. The Eck thing kind of bugged me, but that was it.
I just think that Porcello and Price are essentially the same pitcher at this point. Porcello is younger, 10 million dollars cheaper, and he's right handed (which helps with all these tough RHB in the AL).
Saving all that money would go a long way into going into offering Mookie, Sale, and *maybe* Xander their extensions (depending on Xander's ask, which is tougher with Boras).
Thankfully this will be settled quickly.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Oct 20, 2018 21:41:00 GMT -5
You really think a team offers him a big deal? The key thing is if Price's agent thinks he can get a bigger deal, maybe adding a extra year. I wouldn't bet on it, but wouldn't completely rule it out either. If Kershaw doesn't opt out, he is the third best pitcher in this market and teams will have the money to spend. Braves, Phillies, Yankees, Brewers, Cardinals, and maybe even the Angels. Why would he? Price still ranks third in salary per year, only Trout and Kershaw earn more. Your looking at 4 years 120 million for a pitcher that had elbow issues and will be 33 years old next year. If you took out the injury issue maybe, but for me that kills his value. If he opts out its not about money, just wanting to play for another team. I hope your right, that would be awesome and really change things long-term.
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