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The Red Sox Offseason Thread: Who do you want for 2019?
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Post by jiant2520 on Oct 21, 2018 12:12:02 GMT -5
I say bring back Pearce on a 1yr deal. That way we do not tie up any more for 2020. Both Moreland and Pearce will be FA and we can decide on 1B after that. Devers may be the guy for 2020, or Chavis too.
We need to save money somewhere and having those guys on entry level contracts while we try to resign our own FA is preferable for me.
If Murphy, or any other player who ties up money for 2020 without being a core player for the future, forces us to lose an internal FA we otherwise could have kept, I would be a bit upset.
Short of making a trade for a good player like Realmuto or Snell or "insert name", just focus on resigning our players and stop gap one year vets, so that we have enough room in 2020.
The only real thing I would look for is a SP. With Eovaldi at the top of the list, if a trade is not made. Maybe Morton too....
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Oct 21, 2018 12:34:54 GMT -5
Given what I've seen for numbers, you are going to blow past the luxury tax line signing those 4 guys. What are you expecting them to sign for? Given the top payroll teams reset this year, I don't expect the same offseason. There will be major competition for all four of those guys and it will take big deals to sign them. 7/8 innings guys get paid, gotta be like 10 million for two of them if you want good ones and you would if you are just letting Kimbrel walk and not adding any guys with elite past performance. For example Joe Kelly is like a 5 million a year guy or close to it. Signing Corbin and trading Porcello is most likely going to add money, he was 15th in bwar and last year was almost top 40 the year before. I'd rather just keep Porcello, then giving out another big long-term deal to a pitcher with a Sale contract in the future. Eovaldi 5 years at $17-18M a year Corbin 5 years at 22-25M a year Pearce 2 years at $5M a year Lowrie 2 year at $8M a year. This is why, if you do this and can trade Porcello you are adding roughly $36M. Of course, if you're confident that Sale, Price and Wright won't do more than a single 10 day DL stint each - which I do not - you'll only need 1 starter. I let Kelly walk, too. You seem crazy low on Pearce and Lowrie, guys coming off 2 bwar and 4.8 bwar seasons. Lowrie has had back to back 4 war seasons, someone is going to pay the guy. I'd expect more like 12-15 million over 2-3 years. Unless the market is like last year, but I don't expect that. Nevermind with a Sale extension coming do you really want 4 pitchers on long-term deals counting for over a hundred million? I wouldn't give Eovaldi 5 years, not with his track record. More like 3 years. I don't know I'm confident about the DL thing, but we have two guys behind Wright that are better than most teams #5 starters. I'd be looking at bringing back Pomeranz, maybe a Chris Tillman type guy for depth reasons. Every rotation in Baseball has injury worries, its the nature of the position. That doesn't mean you get a #2 or better starter for your #5 spot which is what you want.
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Post by jiant2520 on Oct 21, 2018 12:40:18 GMT -5
Any decision for 2019 has to be made with 2020 in mind.
Sale Porcello Bogaerts JD Martinez?
These guys could all be free agents. JD can opt out with the intent of a new deal, even with Boston. Sale and Porcello will be 31 and Bogey only 27 years old. You can bet on Bogeys agent pushing for a 7yr deal. Sale has his question marks, but may still ask to be the highest paid pitcher. JD may ask for 30 plus mil per if he has another year like 2018. Porcello is so valuable as a #3, who gives you 200 innings a year, many teams would offer a 20 mil per deal.
Then in 2021, we have 28 year old Betts and 31 year old Bradley. Betts may ask for more money than all the names above. Bradley may not get resigned at all... depending on the other names here.
A trade of Sale or Bogey may bring back some younger controllable pieces that will help us resign Betts, JD and Porcello... the problem is that most of the current team will be back for 2019 and if we are trying to win, those guys help, but if you don't trade one, we risk losing one of them for a pick only.
I want to keep them all, but I don't see it.
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Post by rivenp on Oct 21, 2018 16:28:01 GMT -5
If Price does opt out we kind of have to be more aggressive in the starting pitching market, right? Is anyone comfortable with: Sale Porcello Rodriguez Johnson Wright? That could be a good rotation, it could also be pretty bad, injured, and without depth. If Price opts out, I would fully expect the Sox to be all in on Eovaldi. The Porcello trade talks would die too. The Sox would need him in this case. porcello trade talks would die?? i'm pretty sure the sox have never even hinted at trading porcello in the past..the only trade talks regarding porcello are from people on this forum...based on the game threads, you seem to have some kind of bias against porcello for some reason?
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gerry
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Post by gerry on Oct 21, 2018 19:32:31 GMT -5
The Sox might find moving Porcello, in the last year of his contract, a good way to reduce payroll and make a benificial trade. But with $40-50M coming off the books snd a very complete team, they don’t need to do this at all. IMHO, after struggling with this, the best and most balanced rotation now and in 2019 is Sale, Price, Porcello, Eovaldi, ERod, with Wright out of the Pen as primary spot starter and longman.
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danr
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Post by danr on Oct 21, 2018 20:03:25 GMT -5
In 2019, the Sox could have essentially the same team they have this year. There only are three must signings I believe the Sox should do, Kimbrel, Pearce and Eovaldi. They should consider re-signing Kelly but not Pomeranz or Kinsler. I do not believe that Price will opt out of his contract. No one is going to pay him more than the Sox.
I don't see anyone from the minors playing a significant role with the big club in 2019. However, in 2020 there could be a number of position players and pitchers quite close to the majors. That will be a major factor in what the Sox do with some of their regulars who can be FA's in 2020.
The Sox starting rotation next year could be Sale, Porcello, Rodriguez, Price and Eovaldi. Backup starters and long RPs would be Wright, Velazquez and Johnson. There is going to be considerable competition for the other RP positions, assuming Thornburg and Smith are healthy. There are only two, based on this year's performances, who should be locks, Brasier and Barnes.
The starting lineup could be better than this year's if Pedroia makes it back and performs well. I have no idea if that is likely. The rest of the lineup should be unchanged but with Devers getting more action at 3B. I would like to see Vazquez get more starts at catcher.
I suspect something will happen with Swihart during the off season. He really doesn't have a place on this team.
It will be fascinating to see Betts at 2B in the WS, if it happens.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Oct 22, 2018 10:36:13 GMT -5
Eovaldi is nice in theory, but I think between his injury history and price tag it's not going to happen. Let's actually talk about this, because people are talking about how expensive Eovaldi is going to be and... I have no idea how expensive he's going to be. The 2017 FA starting pitcher class: PLAYER POS AGE STATUS TEAM NEW TEAM YRS RK DOLLARS Yu Darvish SP 32 Signed Dodgers Cubs 6 1 $126,000,000 Jake Arrieta SP 32 Signed Cubs Phillies 3 4 $75,000,000 Alex Cobb SP 31 Signed Rays Orioles 4 8 $57,000,000 Jhoulys Chacin SP 30 Signed Padres Brewers 2 14 $15,500,000 Lance Lynn SP 31 Signed Cardinals Twins 1 16 $12,000,000 Jaime Garcia SP 32 Signed Yankees Blue Jays 1 21 $10,000,000 Mike Minor SP 30 Signed Royals Rangers 3 22 $28,000,000 CC Sabathia SP 38 Signed Yankees Yankees 1 23 $10,000,000 Andrew Cashner SP 32 Signed Rangers Orioles 2 34 $16,000,000 Jason Vargas SP 35 Signed Royals Mets 2 35 $16,000,000
Where would this year's Eovaldi slot into this group? On the one hand there's a lot of signs of a potential breakout this year so maybe he can kind of get into the Cobb/Arrieta class, but at the same time, his actual track record (both performance and health) is worse than guys like Lynn and Chacin. I feel like 3/36 with an opt out after the first year could make a lot of sense for both sides. The Red Sox can let Kimbrel walk and have a better pitching staff in aggregate while saving a little money. Eovaldi gets his rainy day money guaranteed, doesn't have to mess with an uncertain market, and if the breakout is real, he can go to FA next year feeling much more confident. The Sox would probably lose him at that point, but with a pitcher, I'm much more comfortable taking that one good year and letting someone else worry about paying high dollars for the next five.
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Post by jimed14 on Oct 22, 2018 10:38:29 GMT -5
The problem I see with Kimbrel is that I don't think he'll take to being anything but the closer. If he become unpitchable at closer, I think he'll be quite ineffective at any other role. That would be a huge issue if you signed him to a huge contract. He's the type of pitcher that if he can't throw his knuckle curve for a strike and his velocity drops to 94-95, he'll be just plain bad. 4-5 years is a whole lot of scary with him.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Oct 22, 2018 10:53:13 GMT -5
The problem I see with Kimbrel is that I don't think he'll take to being anything but the closer. If he become unpitchable at closer, I think he'll be quite ineffective at any other role. That would be a huge issue if you signed him to a huge contract. He's the type of pitcher that if he can't throw his knuckle curve for a strike and his velocity drops to 94-95, he'll be just plain bad. 4-5 years is a whole lot of scary with him. As long as this team has a limit on it's budget at all, Kimbrel should be the last guy on the list. There's just no realistic career trajectory for him where he's going to represent good value for money. And if you're working with a limited pool of money, value is the first consideration.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Oct 22, 2018 13:55:17 GMT -5
]I have no idea what Eovaldi will get either, but I bet there's at least one GM in baseball that says he'd easily be the second best guy on this list. Personally, I don't think he compares to Darvish at all, but there's a debate about where he lands after that given the age and injury history of all these guys. If he'll take 3/36 then hell yeah, but I saw one article that said 4/75 and one great World Series start pushes that closer to 5/100. Crazy, but it only takes one. I don’t know, we heard that Darvish was losing all this money in the World Series last year too and hey, maybe he did, but I don’t think most teams weigh those games the same as the talking heads do. Serious question, what the biggest deal we’ve seen go to a guy with as little track record of actually being good as Eovaldi? Rich Hill has come up, Charlie Morton is similar in some ways, but I can’t really think of a close comp.
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gerry
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Post by gerry on Oct 22, 2018 16:11:42 GMT -5
We do know that Eovaldi has been a nyfy killer for us, and performed well as both SP and RP against two 100W teams with fearsome lineups. Word is the nyfy want two SP and Eovaldi is among those being considered as a FA. That would be bad for us, big time.
Is there factually a greater likelihood of him needing more surgery than say Sale, Price, ERod? He is still young and seems to enjoy the clubhouse, his recent success, and the team’s success. Couldn’t a mutually acceptable deal be worked out to keep him, say a 3 year deal plus options? I am not discounting his potential for injury, as the team is best able to assess this, not us. I am saying that hanging onto a healthy Nate Eovaldi on a reasonable (considering his history) contract should be a priority.
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Post by soxjim on Oct 23, 2018 0:01:21 GMT -5
We do know that Eovaldi has been a nyfy killer for us, and performed well as both SP and RP against two 100W teams with fearsome lineups. Word is the nyfy want two SP and Eovaldi is among those being considered as a FA. That would be bad for us, big time. Is there factually a greater likelihood of him needing more surgery than say Sale, Price, ERod? He is still young and seems to enjoy the clubhouse, his recent success, and the team’s success. Couldn’t a mutually acceptable deal be worked out to keep him, say a 3 year deal plus options? I am not discounting his potential for injury, as the team is best able to assess this, not us. I am saying that hanging onto a healthy Nate Eovaldi on a reasonable (considering his history) contract should be a priority. Nothing is fact until it actually happens but you know how this stuff works, expected outcomes and such. Sale, Price, and ERod make me tremendously uncomfortable, but those are sunk costs. If anything, having three health concerns on your team means that you absolutely can't add a fourth on big money. Throw in the fact that Eovaldi has never in his career proven that he can be half the pitcher that these three are over a full season and it seems like a crap shoot signing him for what he could eventually get. He's only pitched 150+ innings once in his 7-year career and only had an ERA+ north of 100 in 2011 (35 innings), 2013 (106 innings) and this year with Boston (54 innings). You can barely cherry pick a full season of statistics across his whole career that would justify the contract he could theoretically wind up with. A mutually acceptable deal could work, but why would he take that when there's likely to be a completely and utterly 1-sided deal waiting for him? I think you make the biggest argument for him not resigning with the Sox in that he kills the Yankees, the Yankees need pitching, and they're going to spend. A return to pinstripes on a bloated contract is a very likely/probable scenario. If the market falls short and it only takes 3/36 then absolutely, but anything more than that is a huge risk and one that a team like the Red Sox don't really need to take. I was thinking the Yanks should go after Eovaldi before but now I'm not as sure. The best reason I can think of for the Yanks is to keep him away from pitching against the Sox. Other than that-- this move makes perfect sense for the Sox rather than the Yanks. First off- take a look at the Yanks starting pitching. Who do they have? Two of their starters are Tanaka and Montgomery. Why would it be uncomfortable for the SOx to go after Eovaldi but not the Yanks? What depth do the Yanks have in starting pitching and how does Eovadli help them? Secondly, with the Sox-- Eovaldi would give them depth. They wouldn't have to stretch Eovaldi or Erod or Sale or Wright or even Price. Sure most if not all could go down. But if that were to happen, they aren't going anywhere anyways. The Yanks have to stretch Tanaka. Montogomery won't give them much. SO they have Severino and what else? OFC I think they should push for Corbin but if you get him -- then they'd still have a huge concern with injuries to Eovaldi, Tanaka and Montgomery, wouldn't they? And those three pitchers would have to be stretched a bit, wouldn't they? Yet for example the Sox could pitch Sale, Eovaldi Wright and ERod for about 600 innings and they might be fine, wouldn't they? THE Sox wouldn't have to stretch Eovaldi. That's important imo.
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gerry
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Post by gerry on Oct 23, 2018 2:38:49 GMT -5
And, IMO, 3/33-36 + incentives + one or two mutual options would be a good deal for him considering his history. And, with guys like Rich Hill, Ryan Pressley, Travis shaw and others in mind, good for the Sox. And bad for the nyfy. That’’s what I was suggesting. Am not remotely suggesting 20M per year. We have too many of those already. I would be happy with Wright replacing Pom, but think the rotation and pen would both be much stronger with Eovaldi in it and Wright spot starting with Johnson and Velasquez backing him. I would prefer to reduce payroll via Pom, Kimbrel, Kinsler, Nunez, Hanley and see what Thornburg, Smith, Lakins, Feltman, Chavis, Lin, Marco H, Quiroz and others can do during the year.
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Post by James Dunne on Oct 23, 2018 7:07:47 GMT -5
]I have no idea what Eovaldi will get either, but I bet there's at least one GM in baseball that says he'd easily be the second best guy on this list. Personally, I don't think he compares to Darvish at all, but there's a debate about where he lands after that given the age and injury history of all these guys. If he'll take 3/36 then hell yeah, but I saw one article that said 4/75 and one great World Series start pushes that closer to 5/100. Crazy, but it only takes one. I don’t know, we heard that Darvish was losing all this money in the World Series last year too and hey, maybe he did, but I don’t think most teams weigh those games the same as the talking heads do. Serious question, what the biggest deal we’ve seen go to a guy with as little track record of actually being good as Eovaldi? Rich Hill has come up, Charlie Morton is similar in some ways, but I can’t really think of a close comp. I'd throw Kris Benson in there. Good before his injury, long recovery, signed a lucrative (at the time) three year deal based on the belief his resurgence (which was only a 2.4 bWAR season) in 2004 was real. Similar age, similar enough scouting profiles. Eovaldi's peripherals are a lot better than Benson's. Though I suppose that's true of everyone now compared to 15 years ago. But unlike Benson, Eovaldi's not going to keep getting pushed deeper in the game than his effectiveness. I mean, check out Benson's times-through-the-order penalty: www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.fcgi?id=bensokr01&year=Career&t=p#times::none Benson's probably remembered a lot differently if he comes along 10-12 years later. And Benson's contract seemed ridiculous because of all the other stuff going on with his wife being in the news, but he was basically an average pitcher for the first two years of the deal, and was then hurt in year three. So, not really a value signing but not an albatross either.
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Post by jimed14 on Oct 24, 2018 18:26:52 GMT -5
This probably has a 0.1% chance of happening, but I'd love to have Charlie Morton on the Sox.
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Post by jiant2520 on Oct 24, 2018 18:36:39 GMT -5
This probably has a 0.1% chance of happening, but I'd love to have Charlie Morton on the Sox. If not Eovaldi, he is my 2nd choice of the FAs available
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Post by tookme55 on Oct 28, 2018 7:48:24 GMT -5
Last time around, we went back to back years over the luxury tax limit (2015/2016) and then reset in 2017. We were at $233M this year, getting close to third tier surtax penalty at 42.5%. I think we'll go over the limit again this year and reset in 2020 (major overhaul to our payroll structure).
Our CB Payroll is estimated currently for 2019 at $212M (Per Cot's Baseball). Luxury tax limit is $206M. In theory, Henry is willing to spend up to $246M if the third tier peanlty is our budget.
That means we only have additional $34M to spend to fit in Kimbrel, Eovaldi and Pearce. Obviously this also assumes Pedey will come back 100% healthy for 2019.
From where I sit, I think we'll trade either for a closer, a fifth start or platoon right handed bat at 1B to reduce the monetary cost.
After winning back to back World Series title in 2019, the team will re-set payroll for 2020.
Pablo contract comes off. $19M Porcello contract expires, $22M. Sale contract expires, $13M. Moreland contract expires, $6.5M. Xander's becomes FA, $12M (est per mlb trade rumors) JD Martinez opts out, $22M.
That's about $94M.
We will then build a team around Betts, Beni and Devers and possibly Xander and JD Martinez being retained.
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Post by costpet on Oct 28, 2018 10:22:10 GMT -5
I haven't seen this anywhere, but I'd like to see them let Kimbrel go and make Eovaldi the closer. Kimbrel, otherwise known as Mr. Heart Attack, is losing it. Eovaldi would be limited in innings, and given his history, would work. Just give him the Kimbrel money. Then try to sign a good starter (Morton or whoever).
Then there's 2nd base. That could be a problem. I have a nagging feeling that we have seen the last of Pety. I would go after Lowie on a good 2 year deal. Release Kinsler, of course. Swihart could be used for a good reliever trade.
Anyway, I really trust DD. He seems to know more than the rest of us.
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Post by jimed14 on Oct 29, 2018 12:16:54 GMT -5
Well, Nunez is picking up his player option for next season.
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Post by adiospaydro2005 on Oct 29, 2018 12:20:50 GMT -5
Pass on attempting to re-sign Kimbrell, Pomeranz, and Kinsler.
Seek to re-sign Kelly, Pearce, and Eovaldi, although a lot may depend on whether or not Price opts out and there is money available to sign those guys..
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Post by Legion of Bloom on Oct 29, 2018 12:40:53 GMT -5
Offer a QO to Kimbrel and take the pick.
Re-sign Kelly, Pearce and Eovaldi.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 29, 2018 14:09:17 GMT -5
I bring back Kelly for sure. No, he won’t be the pitcher we saw in the postseason, but he strikes me as a great teammate. The kind of guy you want in the clubhouse with you. Bring him back and live with the command issues.
Pearce would be nice to have back, but don’t overspend on him. Same with Kimbrel. Of these two, I think Pearce would be more likely to accept a discount to stay in Boston. If he does, great. If not, don’t be a prisoner of the moment. He’s a career journeyman for a reason. I can’t see Kimbrel accepting any kind of discount to stay in Boston, but that’s just a hunch. I think he’s gone, and I’m okay with that.
Kinsler is out the door, no questions asked.
Eovaldi and Kelly are the two guys I want to see back in Boston above anyone else.
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Post by prangerx on Oct 29, 2018 14:18:09 GMT -5
Offer a QO to Kimbrel and take the pick. Re-sign Kelly, Pearce and Eovaldi. Doesn't the fact we are over the max threshold disqualify us from draft pick compensation?
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Post by dridiot on Oct 29, 2018 14:32:52 GMT -5
Offer a QO to Kimbrel and take the pick. Re-sign Kelly, Pearce and Eovaldi. Doesn't the fact we are over the max threshold disqualify us from draft pick compensation? I think we would get a pick after the 4th round instead of after the 2nd. That being said, I think it does change the calculus of offering a QO or not
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Oct 29, 2018 14:39:28 GMT -5
Doesn't the fact we are over the max threshold disqualify us from draft pick compensation? I think we would get a pick after the 4th round instead of after the 2nd. That being said, I think it does change the calculus of offering a QO or not Right, www.mlb.com/news/mlb-qualifying-offer-rules-explained/c-259650658plus you get a pick "if and only if the lost player signs for at least $50 million"
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