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The Red Sox Offseason Thread: Who do you want for 2019?
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Oct 29, 2018 15:45:56 GMT -5
I bring back Kelly for sure. No, he won’t be the pitcher we saw in the postseason, but he strikes me as a great teammate. The kind of guy you want in the clubhouse with you. Bring him back and live with the command issues. Pearce would be nice to have back, but don’t overspend on him. Same with Kimbrel. Of these two, I think Pearce would be more likely to accept a discount to stay in Boston. If he does, great. If not, don’t be a prisoner of the moment. He’s a career journeyman for a reason. I can’t see Kimbrel accepting any kind of discount to stay in Boston, but that’s just a hunch. I think he’s gone, and I’m okay with that. Kinsler is out the door, no questions asked. Eovaldi and Kelly are the two guys I want to see back in Boston above anyone else. Maybe Kelly likes it here and takes a big discount, maybe but highly unlikely. This is his first big payday and he just had the best stretch of him as a reliever ever! Some team likely way overpays him based on October. So saying your going to bring back Kelly and not expect playoff Joe Kelly sounds very questionable, because your going to be paying for playoff Kelly. Heck I wouldn't be surprised to see him get closer money now. He just earned himself 20 to 30 million in a month.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Oct 29, 2018 16:07:11 GMT -5
Yeap, a lot of helium with Kelly and Eovaldi right now guys.
You might get Pearce back on a good one year deal, MAYBE.
A lot of teams saw Kelly, a lot of teams saw the heart of Eovaldi. I'm not sure if it'd be worth it if the helium goes overboard. I hate it because I really do like Eovaldi and how he matches up against the Yankees.
Kelly is a love/hate thing, but he was a good option for 7 million a year for example for 3 years.
Kelly might get 30-40 million now. If Kelly gets that, move on to David Robertson for a two year deal or something.
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Post by jmei on Oct 29, 2018 16:09:44 GMT -5
Al Melchior of Fangraphs on whether Eovaldi's breakout is for real, including an analysis of the adjustments he made this season. There are some pretty good gifs illustrating how he threw his fastball higher in the zone and changed his horizontal release point. The ultimate conclusion is pretty pessimistic. www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/breakout-breakdown-nathan-eovaldi/I'm a little higher than Melchior is on Eovaldi, but not by much. I think some of the improvements in strikeout rate are sustainable, but I suspect his walk rate will tick up as batters adjust to his throwing more pitches outside of the zone and there are still health/durability concerns (he's only thrown more than 160 innings in a season once in his career).
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radiohix
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'At the end of the day, we bang. We bang. We're going to swing.' Alex Verdugo
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Post by radiohix on Oct 29, 2018 16:19:44 GMT -5
Unpopular take: A healthy Wright > Eovaldi
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Oct 29, 2018 16:25:26 GMT -5
Unpopular take: A healthy Wright > Eovaldi I think the more prevalent question is Eovaldi versus Porcello. I think before his value spiked in the postseason, I'm taking Eovaldi. Now I'm probably taking Porcello for a year I guess and not exactly loving it. Would have liked to sell a little high on Porcello while the Sox are out ahead with him. Now you're probably talking one more year of Porcello and a draft pick.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 29, 2018 17:19:46 GMT -5
I bring back Kelly for sure. No, he won’t be the pitcher we saw in the postseason, but he strikes me as a great teammate. The kind of guy you want in the clubhouse with you. Bring him back and live with the command issues. Pearce would be nice to have back, but don’t overspend on him. Same with Kimbrel. Of these two, I think Pearce would be more likely to accept a discount to stay in Boston. If he does, great. If not, don’t be a prisoner of the moment. He’s a career journeyman for a reason. I can’t see Kimbrel accepting any kind of discount to stay in Boston, but that’s just a hunch. I think he’s gone, and I’m okay with that. Kinsler is out the door, no questions asked. Eovaldi and Kelly are the two guys I want to see back in Boston above anyone else. Maybe Kelly likes it here and takes a big discount, maybe but highly unlikely. This is his first big payday and he just had the best stretch of him as a reliever ever! Some team likely way overpays him based on October. So saying your going to bring back Kelly and not expect playoff Joe Kelly sounds very questionable, because your going to be paying for playoff Kelly. Heck I wouldn't be surprised to see him get closer money now. He just earned himself 20 to 30 million in a month. If a team is willing to pay Joe Kelly closer money, you let him walk. He’s not worth that. But I was only trying to point out that Kelly’s teammates seem to love him, and I think he is very popular in the clubhouse. There is value in that beyond the box score. So I would “overpay” slightly based on that, but not to the point where I’m paying him closer money. If he can get that kind of money in free agency, let him go.
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Post by soxfansince67 on Oct 29, 2018 22:49:05 GMT -5
25 for 2019...just first thoughts, of course will change
1 Beni 2 JBJ 3 Mookie 4 Rafi 5 Xander 6,7 Pedey (if healthy)/Brockstar 8,9 Pearce (if we can sign him)/Moreland 10,11 Vazquez/Swihart 12 JDM 13 Nunez ?? (he opted in...trade him?)
14 Sale 15 Price (if he doesn't opt out) 16 Porcello 17 ERod 18 Eovaldi (if we can sign him) 19 Kelly (if we can sign him) 20 Barnes 21 Wright ( if healthy) 22 Brasier 23 ?? Feltman?? 24 ?? Lakins?? 25 ?? (Velazquez or Johnson?)
Leon, Pomeranz, Kimbrel, Hembree depart...
Biggest questions and most likely to change are 1B, C, and relievers, perhaps a starter.
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Post by bruinsfan94 on Oct 30, 2018 0:25:01 GMT -5
I think the best plan is to keep the team together for the most part and aim to try to extend some guys IE Bogarts, Sale, Betts, Benintendi, Devers, etc. I would hope they make a real attempt at bringing back Kimbrel but wouldn't be mad to let someone else overpay him. Evaldi,Kelly, and possibly Pearce I try to bring back very hard. I would offer Phillphs another minor league deal and assume Big Smooth and Kinsler go to better situations for thier careers. The big work should be on the ben, either from trade or br guys like feltman or larkins. Maybe another starter. I would love for them to go after Jose Abueu and Nate Jones in a deal centered around Chavis and others.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Oct 30, 2018 4:28:39 GMT -5
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Post by rjp313jr on Oct 30, 2018 8:23:25 GMT -5
I second keeping the team together. Can’t do much at second base since you expect Pedey to be back. Kinsler goes and you bring back Pearce to platoon with Moreland. Holt, Nunez and Swithart platoon around the field and cover second I’d Pedey can’t go. Lowrie would be nice but only if Pedey can’t play.
Outfield stays the same. Bring back Eovaldi and Kelly if the contracts are reasonable. Offer Kimbrel the QO and see what goes.
Add: I’d be in favor of bringing back Andrew Miller as well.
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Post by Guidas on Oct 30, 2018 8:42:22 GMT -5
Anyone up for Bryce Harper, Mookie to CF and trading JBJ while he’s at peak value? I’m not big on trading JBJ - look at my icon - but trying to think long term. My sense is Harper would want an opt-out after 3 or 4 but you’d have to commit 8-10 years.
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Post by rjp313jr on Oct 30, 2018 8:52:55 GMT -5
Anyone up for Bryce Harper, Mookie to CF and trading JBJ while he’s at peak value? I’m not big on trading JBJ - look at my icon - but trying to think long term. My sense is Harper would want an opt-out after 3 or 4 but you’d have to commit 8-10 years. I want nothing to do with Harper for the money he’s about to get. He may be the most overrated player in baseball. Don’t get me wrong, he’s really good, but he’s way too inconsistent. His highs are almost unmatched by anyone, but he doesn’t operate there all that much and his lows are pretty damn low for someone of his reputation.
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Post by huskies15 on Oct 30, 2018 8:58:24 GMT -5
Just get the mega-Mookie extension done and go from there. That's all that truly matters to me at this moment. Once you have his future taken care of you can assess how best to use the rest of your assets.
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Post by terriblehondo on Oct 30, 2018 9:20:05 GMT -5
Unpopular take: A healthy Wright > Eovaldi But will Wright be healthy? Is the knee supposed to be healthy again. It concerns me as it has been quite a bit of time since the surgery. I don't know what the recovery time is supposed to be but were well over a year now I think. That goes for Pedey too.
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Post by Guidas on Oct 30, 2018 9:24:53 GMT -5
Unpopular take: A healthy Wright > Eovaldi But will Wright be healthy? Is the knee supposed to be healthy again. It concerns me as it has been quite a bit of time since the surgery. I don't know what the recovery time is supposed to be but were well over a year now I think. That goes for Pedey too. And David Wright, who also had back problems, but still. That microfracture surgery still has a high variance of the level of success needed to sustain high level athletic performance.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Oct 30, 2018 9:35:11 GMT -5
For me sign Pearce to a 2 year contract, sign Eovaldi at market, sign Kelly at market, let Pomeranz, Kimbrel and Kinsler walk. Trade Leon, Johnson,Hembree or Workman & Nunez. We have a lot of excellent pen depth in the minors and Pedroia, Smith and Thornburg are wildcards. We have Hanley's money to work with and after next year, Pablo is almost off the books ($5m the year after next).
A dream would be to sign Mookie long term but I don't think that will happen this year
There's also the case that both Eovaldi and Pearce are now local heroes. That stuff goes a long way.
On Kimbrel, I don't see the Sox offering his market value. I know he'd rather stay in particular for the medical treatment his daughter received during spring training. I expect the Sox to make a qualifying offer and him to decline. I also don't expect the Sox to pursue another closer, especially if they resign Kelly. Brasier, Kelly and Barnes could close, they have the stuff. I don't expect him to break camp with the Sox but I expect minor leaguer Feltman to be up after about 3 weeks (service time thing) and be the closer by the All-Star break. An 80 grade fastball and an 80 grade slider is 80/80 not matter what level you are pitching at. That isn't projected, that's current.
As far as Johnson, he has no options and is unlikely to break the rotation with Eovaldi (?), Sale, Price (?), ERod, Porcello and Wright. If they are going to use him in relief, they might as well trade him to a team that will use him as a starter which should fetch a decent left handed power reliever. It will be sad to lose him after all he's gone through but he should wind up in a better career situation for himself.
For Hembree and Workman, it's an options thing in a crowded pen. We also have Travis Lakins ready and he has 7th/8th inning stuff and command. Thornburg and Smith are wildcards due to health as is Maddox who has options. On the horizon, Darwinzon (it rhymes) Hernandez who the Sox will try to keep at starter but might break in as a left handed power reliever with a swing and miss repertoire but some command issues.
On Nunez,he's fine but redundant now. Lin is a better option all the way around and is a terrific defender at SS, 2B and CF. Xander needs a break once in a while and Holt or Nunez aren't the answer there. Nunez is cheap and low risk since he only has one year remaining, he should fetch a decent prospect that doesn't need to be put on the 40 man.
For Pearce, I like the Moreland/Pearce platoon. Moreland gets somewhat undervalued because of injuries two years running. He was raking both years before the injuries. In the minors, Sam Travis had a disappointing year and Chavis or Ockimey aren't ready except in an emergency situation. Both have limited defense but power bats.
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Post by danredhawk on Oct 30, 2018 10:34:52 GMT -5
Anyone up for Bryce Harper, Mookie to CF and trading JBJ while he’s at peak value? I’m not big on trading JBJ - look at my icon - but trying to think long term. My sense is Harper would want an opt-out after 3 or 4 but you’d have to commit 8-10 years. I want nothing to do with Harper for the money he’s about to get. He may be the most overrated player in baseball. Don’t get me wrong, he’s really good, but he’s way too inconsistent. His highs are almost unmatched by anyone, but he doesn’t operate there all that much and his lows are pretty damn low for someone of his reputation. It is a huge pet peeve of mine when people rip elite players for merely being very good and not off the charts amazing. If you don't want to pay Bryce Harper 35-40 million a year, that is fair enough, but stop there... Opinions on Harper are down because of his 'disappointing' 2018, in which he hit 34 2Bs, 34 HRs, reached base nearly 40% of the time and slugged almost .500. If his name was Barry Harper people would be hoarse from yelling to sign him. He struck out a lot, I believe, because his frustration with rarely getting strikes led him to chase out of the zone. Put him in this line-up, where he'd hit with men on base half the time (behind Mookie and Beni) and not have to worry about doing too much, while also getting better pitches to hit (ahead of JDM and X), he'd be an ABSOLUTE monster. And 99% of the time, this guy plays as hard as anyone in baseball... I wouldn't expect it to happen, but if they felt they could pull it off and still sign Betts and other key guys long term (that would be the lone concern) - I certainly wouldn't be complaining...
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Post by James Dunne on Oct 30, 2018 10:37:50 GMT -5
Yeah, the idea that his lows are "pretty damn low" when his bad season had a .393 OBP and .496 SLG is quite something. He was eighth in the NL in wRC+. He had a better offensive season than Javier Baez, who will get 1st place MVP votes. And it's true of all players who come in with a lot of hype, but especially with Harper specificially. It's like people hoped he was this once-in-a-lifetime talent and now that he's only, like, an All-Star, people seem to take that as a personal affront. And the word used is always "overrated." It's like this circle of people convincing themselves that the conventional wisdom outside their group is that Bryce Harper is the best player in baseball or something, and that they are speaking truth to power. It drives me nuts. He's really good, and he's really entertaining to watch hit!
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Post by manfred on Oct 30, 2018 11:15:50 GMT -5
You know what I want? I want the Yankees to sign Machado to a huge contract. He’ll be the new ARod: a guy I love to hate on a team I love to hate. And... he’s a bum, so it’ll be fun to listen to him grumble all year and stumble (again) in October.
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Post by Guidas on Oct 30, 2018 11:22:10 GMT -5
Yeah, the idea that his lows are "pretty damn low" when his bad season had a .393 OBP and .496 SLG is quite something. He was eighth in the NL in wRC+. He had a better offensive season than Javier Baez, who will get 1st place MVP votes. And it's true of all players who come in with a lot of hype, but especially with Harper specificially. It's like people hoped he was this once-in-a-lifetime talent and now that he's only, like, an All-Star, people seem to take that as a personal affront. And the word used is always "overrated." It's like this circle of people convincing themselves that the conventional wisdom outside their group is that Bryce Harper is the best player in baseball or something, and that they are speaking truth to power. It drives me nuts. He's really good, and he's really entertaining to watch hit! Agree. The combination of his age, power and high OBP are almost too good to pass-up. And if they wanted to cut down on his injuries they could play him at 1st base. After all, he came up a catcher and is highly athletic. Either way, my concern is that Mookie has given every indication that he will test the free agent waters. I really believe they need insurance for that, and for JD Martinez opting out - although I think a renegotiation and giving him an additional $5M a year might in exchange for the opt outs might get that done.
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Post by Guidas on Oct 30, 2018 11:23:10 GMT -5
You know what I want? I want the Yankees to sign Machado to a huge contract. He’ll be the new ARod: a guy I love to hate on a team I love to hate. And... he’s a bum, so it’ll be fun to listen to him grumble all year and stumble (again) in October. I want Machado to stay in the NL. He's a jerk and a bit of a dog on the bases, but he's a beast at the plate and a 70 grade 3rd baseman.
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radiohix
Veteran
'At the end of the day, we bang. We bang. We're going to swing.' Alex Verdugo
Posts: 6,154
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Post by radiohix on Oct 30, 2018 11:44:09 GMT -5
Anyone up for Bryce Harper, Mookie to CF and trading JBJ while he’s at peak value? I’m not big on trading JBJ - look at my icon - but trying to think long term. My sense is Harper would want an opt-out after 3 or 4 but you’d have to commit 8-10 years. I thought that this year team taught that you don't NEED a lineup with all-stars at every position (some call it a "relentless" lineup) and a you don't NEED bullpen made of closers in every spot to be amazing and win it all but apparently I was wrong
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gerry
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Post by gerry on Oct 30, 2018 12:00:06 GMT -5
You know what I want? I want the Yankees to sign Machado to a huge contract. He’ll be the new ARod: a guy I love to hate on a team I love to hate. And... he’s a bum, so it’ll be fun to listen to him grumble all year and stumble (again) in October. I want Machado to stay in the NL. He's a jerk and a bit of a dog on the bases, but he's a beast at the plate and a 70 grade 3rd baseman. And if the Dodgers are smart, and they often are, and have the $$$, they will be a player for him in whatever market develops. And he won’t mind being a key player on arguably the best club in the NL with a frequent chance of winning it all. Due to the optics, I think this decision might ultimately be the Manager’s.
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Post by iakovos11 on Oct 30, 2018 12:10:40 GMT -5
Yeah, the idea that his lows are "pretty damn low" when his bad season had a .393 OBP and .496 SLG is quite something. He was eighth in the NL in wRC+. He had a better offensive season than Javier Baez, who will get 1st place MVP votes. And it's true of all players who come in with a lot of hype, but especially with Harper specificially. It's like people hoped he was this once-in-a-lifetime talent and now that he's only, like, an All-Star, people seem to take that as a personal affront. And the word used is always "overrated." It's like this circle of people convincing themselves that the conventional wisdom outside their group is that Bryce Harper is the best player in baseball or something, and that they are speaking truth to power. It drives me nuts. He's really good, and he's really entertaining to watch hit! Agree. The combination of his age, power and high OBP are almost too good to pass-up. And if they wanted to cut down on his injuries they could play him at 1st base. After all, he came up a catcher and is highly athletic. Either way, my concern is that Mookie has given every indication that he will test the free agent waters. I really believe they need insurance for that, and for JD Martinez opting out - although I think a renegotiation and giving him an additional $5M a year might in exchange for the opt outs might get that done. Yup. Just get Betts signed for the next 10 years and ignore Harper. Not because he's average or injured a bit, or inconsistent. But because they have an awesome OF and need to spend $$$ elsewhere. Betts is the issue though. I think DD knows far more than we do about his interest in signing here. I suspect he may be MUCH more open to a long term beast of a deal now with Cora at the helm than he was with Farrell (who I think he hated).
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Post by jimed14 on Oct 30, 2018 12:11:07 GMT -5
I want Machado to stay in the NL. He's a jerk and a bit of a dog on the bases, but he's a beast at the plate and a 70 grade 3rd baseman. And if the Dodgers are smart, and they often are, and have the $$$, they will be a player for him in whatever market develops. And he won’t mind being a key player on arguably the best club in the NL with a frequent chance of winning it all. Due to the optics, I think this decision might ultimately be the Manager’s. Why would they be interested whatsoever when they have Seager coming back and Turner at 3B?
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