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The Red Sox Offseason Thread: Who do you want for 2019?
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Post by iakovos11 on Oct 30, 2018 12:13:23 GMT -5
I want Machado to stay in the NL. He's a jerk and a bit of a dog on the bases, but he's a beast at the plate and a 70 grade 3rd baseman. And if the Dodgers are smart, and they often are, and have the $$$, they will be a player for him in whatever market develops. And he won’t mind being a key player on arguably the best club in the NL with a frequent chance of winning it all. Due to the optics, I think this decision might ultimately be the Manager’s. But LA is supposed to get Seager back next year, right? If I were LA, I think I'd out that $$ towards Harper instead. And staying on topic, the Sox should avoid both Harper and Machado and focus on keeping their own young talent.
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Post by jiant2520 on Oct 30, 2018 12:16:19 GMT -5
Agree. The combination of his age, power and high OBP are almost too good to pass-up. And if they wanted to cut down on his injuries they could play him at 1st base. After all, he came up a catcher and is highly athletic. Either way, my concern is that Mookie has given every indication that he will test the free agent waters. I really believe they need insurance for that, and for JD Martinez opting out - although I think a renegotiation and giving him an additional $5M a year might in exchange for the opt outs might get that done. Yup. Just get Betts signed for the next 10 years and ignore Harper. Not because he's average or injured a bit, or inconsistent. But because they have an awesome OF and need to spend $$$ elsewhere. Betts is the issue though. I think DD knows far more than we do about his interest in signing here. I suspect he may be MUCH more open to a long term beast of a deal now with Cora at the helm than he was with Farrell (who I think he hated). Your first paragraph exactly
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Post by Guidas on Oct 30, 2018 12:45:26 GMT -5
Agree. The combination of his age, power and high OBP are almost too good to pass-up. And if they wanted to cut down on his injuries they could play him at 1st base. After all, he came up a catcher and is highly athletic. Either way, my concern is that Mookie has given every indication that he will test the free agent waters. I really believe they need insurance for that, and for JD Martinez opting out - although I think a renegotiation and giving him an additional $5M a year might in exchange for the opt outs might get that done. Yup. Just get Betts signed for the next 10 years and ignore Harper. Not because he's average or injured a bit, or inconsistent. But because they have an awesome OF and need to spend $$$ elsewhere. Betts is the issue though. I think DD knows far more than we do about his interest in signing here. I suspect he may be MUCH more open to a long term beast of a deal now with Cora at the helm than he was with Farrell (who I think he hated). Perhaps. But Farrell doesn't explain why they made Mookie the first arbitration case in memory - which the Sox lost - and which over leaves the player bitter, or at least hardened, toward the front office. All indications are he and his agent want to go to market. Do they need a Stanton deal to keep it from happening, and if so, would you sign on for that? Mookie has said he'll be paying close attention to what Harper and Machado get, so I am sure he'll want at least that. But from a negotiation standpoint, if the Sox put something near that on the table, wouldn't his agent say to him "That's great, but imagine how much more it could be if we could get the Dodgers, Giants, Nats, Cubs and Yankees involved."
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Post by jdb on Oct 30, 2018 12:48:48 GMT -5
I don’t see a busy offseason since the team is pretty much set. I’d sign Pearce for sure but let Kimbrel walk. There’s a few decent RP options out there that would be lot cheaper and we seem to have some on the way as early as next deadline. Sign a Familia or A Miller on a short deal in addition to Kelly. Eovaldi would be great but Buster seems to think he could push $100 M. Maybe Morton (assuming no QO is attached) on a 2 year deal.
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Post by James Dunne on Oct 30, 2018 12:48:51 GMT -5
Just because Betts is going to market doesn't mean they'll lose him.
There's this weird defeatism that, because a player reaches free agency, the Red Sox won't keep them. It'll cost more, sure. But provided they don't do anything astronomically stupid in the meantime, there's going to be plenty of money to pay Betts the market rate in 2021.
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Post by rjp313jr on Oct 30, 2018 13:16:03 GMT -5
I want nothing to do with Harper for the money he’s about to get. He may be the most overrated player in baseball. Don’t get me wrong, he’s really good, but he’s way too inconsistent. His highs are almost unmatched by anyone, but he doesn’t operate there all that much and his lows are pretty damn low for someone of his reputation. It is a huge pet peeve of mine when people rip elite players for merely being very good and not off the charts amazing. If you don't want to pay Bryce Harper 35-40 million a year, that is fair enough, but stop there... Opinions on Harper are down because of his 'disappointing' 2018, in which he hit 34 2Bs, 34 HRs, reached base nearly 40% of the time and slugged almost .500. If his name was Barry Harper people would be hoarse from yelling to sign him. He struck out a lot, I believe, because his frustration with rarely getting strikes led him to chase out of the zone. Put him in this line-up, where he'd hit with men on base half the time (behind Mookie and Beni) and not have to worry about doing too much, while also getting better pitches to hit (ahead of JDM and X), he'd be an ABSOLUTE monster. And 99% of the time, this guy plays as hard as anyone in baseball... I wouldn't expect it to happen, but if they felt they could pull it off and still sign Betts and other key guys long term (that would be the lone concern) - I certainly wouldn't be complaining... You think that’s ripping a player?!?!? My god. Also, 2018 was only a “disappointment” because it followed 2017 and because he has a reputation of being what he was in 2015. 2016 is his real disappointing season. I used a lot of qualifiers. If I’m spending 35-40 per on a guy, they need to be almost perfect. Guys a great player. But he’s been a 3, 4.8 and 3.5 fWAR guy the last 3 years. The 4.8 is way more impressive than it looks because he only did it in 111 games, but the 3 and 3.5 are over full seasons. His bWARs are even lower 1.5, 4.7 and 1.3. That’s what 35+ million gets you these days? Btw that’s less than JBJ.
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Post by rjp313jr on Oct 30, 2018 13:16:20 GMT -5
And if the Dodgers are smart, and they often are, and have the $$$, they will be a player for him in whatever market develops. And he won’t mind being a key player on arguably the best club in the NL with a frequent chance of winning it all. Due to the optics, I think this decision might ultimately be the Manager’s. Why would they be interested whatsoever when they have Seager coming back and Turner at 3B? They’d move Turney to second
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nomar
Veteran
Posts: 10,434
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Post by nomar on Oct 30, 2018 13:58:47 GMT -5
Yeah, the idea that his lows are "pretty damn low" when his bad season had a .393 OBP and .496 SLG is quite something. He was eighth in the NL in wRC+. He had a better offensive season than Javier Baez, who will get 1st place MVP votes. And it's true of all players who come in with a lot of hype, but especially with Harper specificially. It's like people hoped he was this once-in-a-lifetime talent and now that he's only, like, an All-Star, people seem to take that as a personal affront. And the word used is always "overrated." It's like this circle of people convincing themselves that the conventional wisdom outside their group is that Bryce Harper is the best player in baseball or something, and that they are speaking truth to power. It drives me nuts. He's really good, and he's really entertaining to watch hit! What's up with the defense this year? Was he mailing it in to stay healthy in a contract year? Just odd.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Oct 30, 2018 14:10:29 GMT -5
Yeah, the idea that his lows are "pretty damn low" when his bad season had a .393 OBP and .496 SLG is quite something. He was eighth in the NL in wRC+. He had a better offensive season than Javier Baez, who will get 1st place MVP votes. And it's true of all players who come in with a lot of hype, but especially with Harper specificially. It's like people hoped he was this once-in-a-lifetime talent and now that he's only, like, an All-Star, people seem to take that as a personal affront. And the word used is always "overrated." It's like this circle of people convincing themselves that the conventional wisdom outside their group is that Bryce Harper is the best player in baseball or something, and that they are speaking truth to power. It drives me nuts. He's really good, and he's really entertaining to watch hit! I just made this point in another thread so I won't repeat it fully, but to have just turned 26, with the baseline level of performance that Harper has established... it's hardly a bad place to be: Miguel Cabrera through his age 25 season: .309/.381/.541, 140 OPS+ Bryce Harper through his age 25 season: .279/.388/.512 139 OPS+ Yeah, he was supposed to be the thing that Mike Trout ended up being, and he's not that, but his career is hardly over. He's close to 30 career WAR having not yet played his age 26 season. Even if he's just the same guy for another six years, you're talking about borderline HOFer stats by his early 30s. If he can actually make some gains, not big breakout stuff by any means, just a little more consistency and a little better health, he probably ends up with pretty similar career WAR totals to Ken Griffey Jr or Frank Thomas. That's an optimistic projection, but not wildly so. Maybe like the 65th percentile projection. I feel like any time your mildly optimistic projection is Frank Thomas, you're doing ok. All that said, no, the Red Sox are not going to get him and should not try to get him.
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Post by huskies15 on Oct 30, 2018 14:47:16 GMT -5
Just out of curiosity, are there any players from the "core" that anyone could see getting traded?
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Post by jchang on Oct 30, 2018 14:47:51 GMT -5
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Oct 30, 2018 14:50:20 GMT -5
I'd do that for Eovaldi, but that is a very mild projection. He could go way over that projection.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Oct 30, 2018 14:52:23 GMT -5
Just out of curiosity, are there any players from the "core" that anyone could see getting traded? Does Porcello count? He is the only one that could possibly go. JBJ could go if someone offers the moon, but I don't see it. JBJ will still be relatively cheap next year because of his slow first half.
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Post by rjp313jr on Oct 30, 2018 14:59:46 GMT -5
Bye Nate nice knowing you. That’s way too much. He had a great post season but I’m not paying for that. His strikeout rate is too low for his stuff to make that kind of investment on speculation.
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Post by Canseco on Oct 30, 2018 15:08:37 GMT -5
Bring back Eovaldi and Kelly.
Let Kimbrel walk (would he reject a QO?).
Avoid trying to build a super team. None of the big ticket items on this year’s UFA market interest me at all.
Extend who we can from our core. Mookie is obvious, but I’m also inclined to explore extensions for non-super mega bucks (not the 80s WWF tag team of Million Dollar Man and Andre The Giant) guys like Bradley, Porcello, and Rodriguez. We were extremely solid, despite multiple injuries, for a reason: great outfield defense and some sturdy arms.
This may not be popular, but I’d also explore a trade of Bogaerts. We can’t possibly keep everyone from our young group over the long haul, so how about recouping some nice prospects and a slick fielding SS?
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Post by dridiot on Oct 30, 2018 15:17:22 GMT -5
I wonder if going under the luxury tax for 2019 might come into play here since Sale is hitting free agency next year and we would presumably want that 2nd round draft pick instead of 4th rounder in case he goes elsewhere. That would severely restrict our ability to re-sign any of these guys really...
I think I offer Kimbrel a QO because I think the chance he rejects it is very high. But it's a gamble and the payoff is lower since we went over tax threshold.
I don't make long term extensions this season for the same reasons. AAV would be spread out and probably increase our tax penalty in the short term. The only person I see signing for a long term deal is Mookie, and it has to be REALLY long term (like Pedroia's) to get a lower AAV than he'll be paid next year.
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Post by jimed14 on Oct 30, 2018 15:20:27 GMT -5
Kimbrel signing a QO is not the worst thing that could happen. In fact it might be the best. Having him on a one year deal is ideal, especially with what we'll have to go through next offseason.
Also regarding Harper, it was suggested that he might be open to a 1 year deal just to re-establish his $400 million value (or whatever it is).
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Post by rjp313jr on Oct 30, 2018 15:41:12 GMT -5
Kimbrel signing a QO is not the worst thing that could happen. In fact it might be the best. Having him on a one year deal is ideal, especially with what we'll have to go through next offseason. Also regarding Harper, it was suggested that he might be open to a 1 year deal just to re-establish his $400 million value (or whatever it is). Then he’s going to NY to hit in that bandbox
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Post by jiant2520 on Oct 30, 2018 16:17:19 GMT -5
Just out of curiosity, are there any players from the "core" that anyone could see getting traded? Does Porcello count? He is the only one that could possibly go. JBJ could go if someone offers the moon, but I don't see it. JBJ will still be relatively cheap next year because of his slow first half. Why do you keep saying Porcello and trade together? Honestly, I do not understand where you are getting it from... the Red Sox cannot afford to trade him. For what exactly? We need him in the rotation. The lineup is pretty set. We may need a reliever, but has Porcello not proved his worth? What reliver is he worth trading for? Better yet, who is taking one year of Porcello for a top prospect or player? Keep him. And JBJ.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Oct 30, 2018 16:33:15 GMT -5
Kimbrel signing a QO is not the worst thing that could happen. In fact it might be the best. Having him on a one year deal is ideal, especially with what we'll have to go through next offseason. Also regarding Harper, it was suggested that he might be open to a 1 year deal just to re-establish his $400 million value (or whatever it is). If that happens, it'll happen in the form of a much bigger deal with an early opt-out.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Oct 30, 2018 16:33:32 GMT -5
Does Porcello count? He is the only one that could possibly go. JBJ could go if someone offers the moon, but I don't see it. JBJ will still be relatively cheap next year because of his slow first half. Why do you keep saying Porcello and trade together? Honestly, I do not understand where you are getting it from... the Red Sox cannot afford to trade him. For what exactly? We need him in the rotation. The lineup is pretty set. We may need a reliever, but has Porcello not proved his worth? What reliver is he worth trading for? Better yet, who is taking one year of Porcello for a top prospect or player? Keep him. And JBJ. The Sox can replace Porcello in the rotation with Eovaldi and Wright. Who said they would be trading him for a reliever? Maybe it's a major league ready prospect or more. There is a lot of teams that can use a Porcello too and would have the room to extend him. It's VERY debatable if the Sox have future room to extend Porcello. So better to get out ahead and trade him while he's worth something instead of getting just a 4th round pick for him.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Oct 30, 2018 16:33:36 GMT -5
Does Porcello count? He is the only one that could possibly go. JBJ could go if someone offers the moon, but I don't see it. JBJ will still be relatively cheap next year because of his slow first half. Why do you keep saying Porcello and trade together? Honestly, I do not understand where you are getting it from... the Red Sox cannot afford to trade him. For what exactly? We need him in the rotation. The lineup is pretty set. We may need a reliever, but has Porcello not proved his worth? What reliver is he worth trading for? Better yet, who is taking one year of Porcello for a top prospect or player? Keep him. And JBJ. Mainly because it makes a lot of sense! Thinking long-term and not just about building super teams. Getting something for him rather than letting him walk for nothing. Giving you money to sign Evoldi or someone else. They idea that Porcello is off limits is what I don't get, especially on a team that has Sale, Price, ERod, Wright, and everyone wants Evoldi back. Nevermind a bunch of other guys like Johnson that a bunch of teams would love to have as their 5th starter. It all depends what Porcello value is and I can see some teams valuing do to a short low risk one year deal. You certainly don't give him away, yet it isn't crazy if you can get a good return to trade him either. So many moving parts and so many very good ways to build a team.
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Post by jimed14 on Oct 30, 2018 16:38:48 GMT -5
Why do you keep saying Porcello and trade together? Honestly, I do not understand where you are getting it from... the Red Sox cannot afford to trade him. For what exactly? We need him in the rotation. The lineup is pretty set. We may need a reliever, but has Porcello not proved his worth? What reliver is he worth trading for? Better yet, who is taking one year of Porcello for a top prospect or player? Keep him. And JBJ. The Sox can replace Porcello in the rotation with Eovaldi and Wright. Who said they would be trading him for a reliever? Maybe it's a major league ready prospect or more. There is a lot of teams that can use a Porcello too and would have the room to extend him. It's VERY debatable if the Sox have future room to extend Porcello. So better to get out ahead and trade him while he's worth something instead of getting just a 4th round pick for him. Same goes for Sale, huh? This goes one of two ways. They begin the rebuild/retool right now or they go all out next year for another championship. In the latter scenario, they won't trade Porcello. They'd probably have to trade for him or someone like him at the trade deadline if they got rid of him.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Oct 30, 2018 17:06:41 GMT -5
Bye Nate nice knowing you. That’s way too much. He had a great post season but I’m not paying for that. His strikeout rate is too low for his stuff to make that kind of investment on speculation. Here's the thing, if there's an article with some rando anonymous executive who throws out a potential contract for a guy that seems way too high... it's probably way too high. I just don't see the track record to justify that contract, and yes he was amazing in the postseason but honestly I think most modern front offices are more likely to ding him for the stress on his arm than credit him for the heroics. We will see, but I still don't understand why this dude needs to get paid more than Rich Hill.
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Post by jimed14 on Oct 30, 2018 17:11:31 GMT -5
All it takes is more than one team to create a bidding war. That's when players get overpaid.
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