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Post by Oregon Norm on Oct 10, 2018 21:54:45 GMT -5
Nice analysis from Fangraphs about the new and improved Brock Holt. Definitely some interesting changes here. Looks as if he's adopted the strategy that Lindor and Ramirez have used in Cleveland. Large increases in both launch angle and exit velocity - the moneymakers these days - since he went on the current tear. Heavy emphasis on the pull side: So, a very different profile. There's also a nice quadrant chart that shows how significant those changes have been in relation to other players over that period. Big time stuff if he can keep it rolling. |
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Post by telson13 on Oct 11, 2018 0:25:20 GMT -5
Nice analysis from Fangraphs about the new and improved Brock Holt. Definitely some interesting changes here. Looks as if he's adopted the strategy that Lindor and Ramirez have used in Cleveland. Large increases in both launch angle and exit velocity - the moneymakers these days - since he went on the current tear. Heavy emphasis on the pull side: So, a very different profile. There's also a nice quadrant chart that shows how significant those changes have been in relation to other players over that period. Big time stuff if he can keep it rolling. Terrific article! I’m glad I didn’t miss it. There’s a lot there to be excited about, particularly because the data all point in the same direction: a real change in approach resulting in “real” changes in outcome. That the xwOBA and wOBA are so yoked, and a clear “selling out contact for power” observation (not to mention, the GB rate drop)...that’s awful nice to see. Holt’s still making essentially good contact (rather than excellent contact), but the big EV bump is very encouraging as to quality of contact, and the launch angle obs suggests some reproducibility. Holt’s always has strong isoD, so if continued, his production could bump up substantially. Yet another guy buying into the new Sox philosophy of selective aggression. I’m more ecstatic every day about Cora, Hyers, and the just absolutely terrific boon of JDM’s presence. They’ve completely overhauled the team’s hitting philosophy this year, yet simultaneously avoided getting TTO-heavy. Just makes me very optimistic that they can keep up this production long-term, and possibly find/develop some diamonds in the rough. If Holt becomes one of those “extra 10-15 feet makes all the difference” guys like Ramirez, Lindor, Scooter Gennet, Justin Turner et al...well suddenly he goes from being a very good utility player to an elite one, a la prime Zobrist. Still don’t see him holding up in a starting role, but this production would play anywhere on the diamond. It would also tab him as an above-average (3+ WAR/650 PA) 2b, where his defense is actually good. If he keeps rolling, he’s a well-more-than-adequate 100-game 2b should Pedey struggle to return. I’ve advocated looking into trading him in the past, but he’s a no-brainer keeper at the moment. The combo of him, Pedroia, Bogey, and Lin makes for a terrific middle infield with outstanding depth, if some nagging questions. |
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Post by rivenp on Oct 11, 2018 4:33:00 GMT -5
how good is mookie??? he can even turn brock holt into justin turner / shohei ohtani...
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gerry
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Post by gerry on Oct 11, 2018 11:10:38 GMT -5
To Telson’s last point. Embarrasment of riches. This strong and deep 2019 middle infield of Pedroia, Brockstar, Bogaerts and Lin will potentially add Marco Hernandez and Esteban Quiroz (currently at AFL) who, like Pedey, spent 2018 on the DL. And we can’t forget the emergence of Blakestar as a surprisingly good infielder.
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Oct 11, 2018 13:44:26 GMT -5
Nice analysis from Fangraphs about the new and improved Brock Holt. Definitely some interesting changes here. Looks as if he's adopted the strategy that Lindor and Ramirez have used in Cleveland. Large increases in both launch angle and exit velocity - the moneymakers these days - since he went on the current tear. Heavy emphasis on the pull side: So, a very different profile. There's also a nice quadrant chart that shows how significant those changes have been in relation to other players over that period. Big time stuff if he can keep it rolling. Terrific article! I’m glad I didn’t miss it. There’s a lot there to be excited about, particularly because the data all point in the same direction: a real change in approach resulting in “real” changes in outcome. That the xwOBA and wOBA are so yoked, and a clear “selling out contact for power” observation (not to mention, the GB rate drop)...that’s awful nice to see. Holt’s still making essentially good contact (rather than excellent contact), but the big EV bump is very encouraging as to quality of contact, and the launch angle obs suggests some reproducibility. Holt’s always has strong isoD, so if continued, his production could bump up substantially. Yet another guy buying into the new Sox philosophy of selective aggression. I’m more ecstatic every day about Cora, Hyers, and the just absolutely terrific boon of JDM’s presence. They’ve completely overhauled the team’s hitting philosophy this year, yet simultaneously avoided getting TTO-heavy. Just makes me very optimistic that they can keep up this production long-term, and possibly find/develop some diamonds in the rough. If Holt becomes one of those “extra 10-15 feet makes all the difference” guys like Ramirez, Lindor, Scooter Gennet, Justin Turner et al...well suddenly he goes from being a very good utility player to an elite one, a la prime Zobrist. Still don’t see him holding up in a starting role, but this production would play anywhere on the diamond. It would also tab him as an above-average (3+ WAR/650 PA) 2b, where his defense is actually good. If he keeps rolling, he’s a well-more-than-adequate 100-game 2b should Pedey struggle to return. I’ve advocated looking into trading him in the past, but he’s a no-brainer keeper at the moment. The combo of him, Pedroia, Bogey, and Lin makes for a terrific middle infield with outstanding depth, if some nagging questions. "Still don’t see him holding up in a starting role" might be right Holt has been good, but I'd note that from Aug 9 til the end of the season, the period covered in the Fangraphs article, he had about 20 games with one or zero at-bats, and of course his cycle came after several days of not playing. Does he really need rest to be good? He is a player of marginal big-league strength, and maybe he will always hit the ball harder if he plays 3 or 4 or 5 days a weeks instead of more. |
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Post by Oregon Norm on Oct 11, 2018 16:51:46 GMT -5
"Still don’t see him holding up in a starting role" might be right Holt has been good, but I'd note that from Aug 9 til the end of the season, the period covered in the Fangraphs article, he had about 20 games with one or zero at-bats, and of course his cycle came after several days of not playing. Does he really need rest to be good? He is a player of marginal big-league strength, and maybe he will always hit the ball harder if he plays 3 or 4 or 5 days a weeks instead of more. The reason for making the comparison to Lindor and Ramirez is because they were viewed exactly the same way: The new profile is, I belive, just too similar to the changes those two made (see the above link) to be an accident. He's increased both his launch angle and exit velocity and not just by a little. The change has been as dramatic as just about anyone in the majors over what I'll admit is a very short stretch of at-bats. It's a small sample size, the guy is 30 years old, and it could just be another of the hot streaks he's been prone to ride since he first came up. The takeaway is that this looks promising if it has staying power. What makes that seem like more than just a hope or dream is that it closely mirrors the changes in the profiles of those Cleveland players. News gets around the MLB world very quickly, and I'll bet this filtered through the Sox organization as well. |
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Oct 11, 2018 19:18:32 GMT -5
"Still don’t see him holding up in a starting role" might be right Holt has been good, but I'd note that from Aug 9 til the end of the season, the period covered in the Fangraphs article, he had about 20 games with one or zero at-bats, and of course his cycle came after several days of not playing. Does he really need rest to be good? He is a player of marginal big-league strength, and maybe he will always hit the ball harder if he plays 3 or 4 or 5 days a weeks instead of more. The reason for making the comparison to Lindor and Ramirez is because they were viewed exactly the same way: The new profile is, I belive, just too similar to the changes those two made (see the above link) to be an accident. He's increased both his launch angle and exit velocity and not just by a little. The change has been as dramatic as just about anyone in the majors over what I'll admit is a very short stretch of at-bats. It's a small sample size, the guy is 30 years old, and it could just be another of the hot streaks he's been prone to ride since he first came up. The takeaway is that this looks promising if it has staying power. What makes that seem like more than just a hope or dream is that it closely mirrors the changes in the profiles of those Cleveland players. News gets around the MLB world very quickly, and I'll bet this filtered through the Sox organization as well. "Exactly the same way"? "scouts typically capped his power potential between 15 and 20 home runs"? No one ever looked at Brock Holt as a player who would hit 15-20 home runs a year. He hit 12 hrs in his first 4 milb years. Lindor hit 12 in the major leagues at age 21. Ramirez is more similar, but again, hit 7 in mlb at age 21. Holt made the majors at 25. Not very similar. |
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on May 21, 2019 2:27:03 GMT -5
Folks assuming that Holt doesn't see regular PT vs. RHP if he shows he's healthy are, I hope, in for a pleasant surprise. Between his own defensive versatility and Chavis's, there will be room for both almost every day by resting whoever projects to be the least valuable player in the lineup. (There may be days when Pedroi's in your top 9 guys or Holt or Chavis isn't, of course.)
We know that he switched to Mookie's bat starting August 9, and we're pretty sure that he altered his swing path / launch angle starting 9/11. (That's when you see a big change in results, and O'Brien and Eck talked about Holt having worked on it a few days later).
One of the problems with Statcast Exit Velocity and Launch Angle data is that averages aren't all that meaningful. The percentage of balls that you hit optimally is much more important. If you swing harder, you might lose a bit of consistency making decent contact, and that will partially offset the gains you make making really hard contact, in terms of overall average EV.
(And in fact his EV improvement of 86.9 to 89.1 with the Axe bat happens randomly 12.6% of the time, and his LA improvement from 5.6 to 11.7 with the new swing path happens 7.0% of time (t-test, 2 samples, one-tailed, unequal variance).)
So, before the new bat, Holt was 100.0+ MPH on 10.8% of his contact. With it, 23.9%.
With the old launch angle, 16.2% of his balls were in the HR sweet spot of 20 to 35 degrees. Afterwards, 39.3%.
But it's actually more extreme than that, because fully 1/3 of his sweet-spot balls before were in the edges of the spot, 20-22 and 34-35. None of them afterwards were. For balls between 23 and 33, he went from 10.8% to 39.3%.
His balls below 0 degrees went from 39.6%% to 28.6%; below 8 degrees from 54.1% to 28.6%.
This is reflected in xwOBA, of course:
.315 before .358 Axe bat .447 Axe bat plus lift.
He was .395 overall with the new bat, including .424 vs. RHP in 78 PA. Chavis came into today with .369 in 80.
You have to give him every chance to show this is real-ish. It will likely start with him in his usual super-sub role, but the moment he starts hitting last year you'll see him much more often, I think.
This would be an upgrade over Nunez.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on May 21, 2019 5:53:59 GMT -5
lol to the last line, ya think ?
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