2018 SP.com Season-End Rankings

Suprised to see Shawaryn drop to 12. I'm also wondering why Travis is ahead of someone like Poyner, although that's probably nitpicking. It seems like Travis is only a Plan C short-term option for the Sox at this point going forward. He probably needs to move to another organization.

Remember the peaks of Mata too. Yes, there were obvious struggles. 7.25 BB/9 is horrendous. But that’s just about the end of the negatives to me. Batters hit .229 against him and slugged .281. He only let up 10 XBHs in 253 at bats. 57.2% ground ball rate. If you don’t think the walks will be a long term problem (I don’t) then there’s still at minimum a number three starter here. Down year, but bright future.

He also tied for the league lead with 12 HBP in only 72 innings. So his walk+HBP rate was 21.4%, which is really, really bad. I know his mechanics were shaky because of the apparent growth spurt, but that's too much for me to look past. And it's not like he was offsetting that by blowing hitters away: 18.4% isn't much of a K rate. Of course he's extremely young for his level, so it's not a surprise that it challenged him, but there are red flags here.

My point of view on Mata is that this year’s loss of control is an aberration for him. His control and mechanics before this year were fine. I firmly believe that once he gets used to his growth spurt, he’ll be better than ever. Maybe a minimum of number three is too high, but if he did become a number three then I wouldn’t be surprised

I am quite curious that the scouting report is made by what? Are there scouts coming here and give their report to Soxprospects? Or are there scouts coming here and discuss with sox fan here?

This is pretty awesome. It feels like a new wave of exciting guys, and the farm looks at least partly restocked. At least potentially. I really like the approach: more high/reward/high risk guys near the top, dropping guys like Travis.

I mean, isn't the comp to Marrero CJ Chatham, who is ranked above Shawaryn?

I also disagree with the premise that Shawaryn has a high floor, by the way. It's very possible he's an up-and-down reliever (as reflected in his 4 floor on our site). I'd consider a high-floor pitcher someone who is either almost certainly a MLB middle-reliever or back-end starter. (Really, there's a difference between pitchers and "hitters" in that the latter can have higher floors compared to lower ceilings because they can have a carrying tool or two in a way that it's harder for pitchers to have. A slick-fielding shortstop will probably play in the majors as long as he's not a disaster everywhere else. But a fastball alone, for example, isn't necessarily enough unless it's like triple-digits, right?)

Ranking is always finding some kind of alchemy allowing you to evaluate a combination of projection, floor, and ceiling. I can assure you that there hasn't been a conscious change in how we evaluate those things. For example, one debate we had was Flores vs. Chatham, which is pretty much as close to a representative floor/ceiling ranking debate as you can get. There is a difference between what we had, which was a discussion of the merits of each player which, of course, focused on their respective floors and ceilings, and a theoretical discussion in which the question would be "should we rank the guy with the higher floor or the higher ceiling first?"

How is Chatham comp Marrero? The whole point you made with Marrero was you knew what his great D was at the major league level. Chatham isn't close to that level, he's more his bat will determine his future. When did Chatham become a slick fielding SS?

Just my two sense but you seem to be getting hung up on trying to predict a role for Shawaryn and docking him because of the role you picked. I'm a numbers guy and he's done great as a starter. Reports his stuff craps out half way through his starts yet the results are still very good. You have to be impressed by his strikeouts and whip if his stuff craps the bed no? He in our AAA in swing percentage over guys like Brasier. 10 strikeouts in 7 and 1/3 innings in the Arizona fall league, only one walk, good whip.  He's one of the most proven players of our top players. He's basically major league ready. Chatham hasn't even played in AA or AAA. Good season at high A ball, but he's basically the same age as Shawaryn who's in AAA. At a younger age Shawaryn was top 10 in the minors in strikeouts in A ball. A huge fastball is nice and all, but strikeouts, whip, swing percentage are just as important. I'll take movement and less mph over a straight high 90's fastball. 

Is it possible he's an up and down guy? Sure, heck Workman is and up and down guy that was worth 1.5 bwar the last two years. That's really not saying much for a deep Red Sox bullpen. There's also a very good chance he's a lot better than that. Remember his strikeout numbers were right up there with Barnes. His delivery hides the ball and gives hitters a totally different look. He's one of the safer bets to play in the majors and give you value. I like his chances of being a good reliever over Chatham being a starting level type player for example. I think Cora has shown he likes a bullpen with guys that can go multiple innings and uses them very well. He's rated higher by most other ranking sites.

So while maybe it wasn't an overnight type thing and happened more gradually. It does seem you've gone from more of a floor to upside in the rankings. Not saying that is totally wrong, but it does show. A guy like Nick Decker can certainly have a higher ceiling, but how in the world is his floor the same? He's in the GCL. The guy could flameout and never come close to the majors. I've always been higher on Shawaryn than most, I'm just shocked with what he's doing he keeps moving down in the rankings. Guys doing very well in AAA, with swing and miss stuff have to have rather high floors because a bunch of these guys will flame out. Also if you predict he's a reliever don't we have to expect he'll be better in shorter stints? His already very good numbers as a starter should greatly improve. We are seeing that in the AFL where his strikeouts are way up.

news.soxprospects.com/2018/11/fallwinter-league-roundup-fall-stars.html

Let us all overreact and drive Chris crazy. 

"The biggest story was Chris Acosta making his debut, allowing only one hit over three scoreless innings. Acosta has not appeared in a game since 2015 due to multiple suspensions."

I don't know what I was looking at, but Chatham 3-5 and Shawaryn is 4-5, yet both are rated 4.5 and Chatham is rated higher. So you agree with my take that Shawaryn should have one of the higher floors, shouldn't higher floor guys be ranked above lower floor guys if their ceiling is the same?