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2019 MLBTR Arb Projections & the Payroll
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Nov 19, 2018 8:50:43 GMT -5
My last kind of gripe with this kind of deal is that they go ahead and show Pearce the money and deservadly so (world series MVP). Aggressive approach that obviously gets a deal done. Great. Yet here we are filing and trialing Mookie Betts in arbitration, you know your best player, over 3 million dollars. Granted if you won you save a bunch of money the next 2 years of arbitration against Mookie, but he's the exact player I don't want to be saving money on and showing the money. By not trying to settle the arbitration contract, you lost 3 million dollars and you took your best player to a hearing and telling him why he doesn't deserve money. Hello, that's the guy who deserves the dang money. You didn't even try to settle on a contract because of a all of a sudden "new approach" to arbitration that was unheard of in the John Henry ERA beforehand. You did it to the best player this organization might have seen since Ted Williams. These two points might have been unrelated to some degree, but I didn't know where to put it. Because of how arbitration works, $3M now leads to more money down the road, so it wasn't just over $3M. Betts filed at what would've been a record for a first-year arb player if not for Kris Bryant later settling for more (which also had to have affected the Betts arbitration). They have tried to sign him to an extension and he is not interested. MLBTR's projection model had Betts projected at $8.2M, which is much closer to what the Sox offered than what Betts asked for. And we have no idea what either side's negotiation position was - it's entirely possible that the team offered to move and he didn't, or vice versa. Meanwhile, the previous season they offered him the second-highest ever salary for a pre-arb player and he didn't sign the contract to make a statement. You're creating a reason to gripe with how they're handling Betts when there isn't enough data to do so. EDIT: Moved this discussion out of the Pearce thread.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Nov 19, 2018 11:53:36 GMT -5
My last kind of gripe with this kind of deal is that they go ahead and show Pearce the money and deservadly so (world series MVP). Aggressive approach that obviously gets a deal done. Great. Yet here we are filing and trialing Mookie Betts in arbitration, you know your best player, over 3 million dollars. Granted if you won you save a bunch of money the next 2 years of arbitration against Mookie, but he's the exact player I don't want to be saving money on and showing the money. By not trying to settle the arbitration contract, you lost 3 million dollars and you took your best player to a hearing and telling him why he doesn't deserve money. Hello, that's the guy who deserves the dang money. You didn't even try to settle on a contract because of a all of a sudden "new approach" to arbitration that was unheard of in the John Henry ERA beforehand. You did it to the best player this organization might have seen since Ted Williams. These two points might have been unrelated to some degree, but I didn't know where to put it. MLBTR's projection model had Betts projected at $8.2M, which is much closer to what the Sox offered than what Betts asked for. And we have no idea what either side's negotiation position was - it's entirely possible that the team offered to move and he didn't, or vice versa. Meanwhile, the previous season they offered him the second-highest ever salary for a pre-arb player and he didn't sign the contract to make a statement. You're creating a reason to gripe with how they're handling Betts when there isn't enough data to do so. EDIT: Moved this discussion out of the Pearce thread. "Team president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski said in an email that the Red Sox plan to have an arbitration hearing with Betts. The team could continue negotiating, but it has taken a “file and trial” approach that’s used by many teams. It means they stop negotiations as soon as figures are exchanged." www.bostonherald.com/sports/red_sox/2018/01/mookie_betts_red_sox_head_to_arbitration_after_parties_can_t_agreeYou're flat wrong about this Chris. We knew exactly what the Sox did to get to a arbitration hearing. They stopped negotiating after their first offer. They're the one's that insisted on a hearing, risking a bad taste in Mookie's mouth in future negotiations. The Sox didn't even try to settle with their best player. That was the gripe. The Sox and Mookie haven't been able to come to agreement on one contract since he's been up here.
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Post by jimed14 on Nov 19, 2018 12:14:04 GMT -5
Until/unless Mookie leaves for another team and he starts criticizing the Red Sox, you have absolutely no idea what is going on behind the scenes or what Mookie is thinking. I hate mind-reading discussions.
Just having an arbitration hearing doesn't mean anything about future negotiations. You are assuming everything that you believe.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Nov 19, 2018 12:55:12 GMT -5
This isn't a mind reading discussion. The Sox told the world in a email exchange what they were planning to do with Mookie Betts. They didn't attempt to settle and risked bad blood.
There's a reason why there's been only one other arbitration hearing in the John Henry ERA is Boston. Arbitration is a bad process. I read for years on here especially how it's best to avoid it, yet some are saying the exactly the opposite now by saying " we don't know what Mookie is thinking."
I can tell you what Mookie is thinking. He wants to get paid top dollar.
The Sox could throw 6 million at a platoon player yet they can't even try to split the difference of 3 million dollars with their best player (which would have been a smart move, considering the Sox lost).
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Post by jimed14 on Nov 19, 2018 13:33:31 GMT -5
You absolutely are trying to read Mookie's mind and use what you believe as fact. We have zero idea what his thoughts are on (eventually) signing an extension and what the arbitration process did to affect that decision. All we know right now is that he's only willing to sign year to year contracts which is what he said before he went to an arbitration hearing. That is it. We don't know why he wants to do that. He has never said why. He hasn't said he wants to leave Boston or is unhappy there. He hasn't said anything about it. For all we know, the MBLPA is driving all of his decisions.
I guarantee you that re-signing Pearce has absolutely nothing to do with Mookie. Find one other person who believes that, I challenge you.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Nov 19, 2018 13:43:04 GMT -5
I'm not reading anyone's mind here. For the second time.
Of course Pearce and Mookie have nothing to do with each other, I just think it's a little negligent where the Sox are prioritizing their money.
So you think taking Mookie to arbitration helps his case of signing a future extension in Boston?
Do you really? You can do this without reading anyone's mind here like you keep insinuating.
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Post by jimed14 on Nov 19, 2018 13:46:48 GMT -5
Do you think that they chose paying Steve Pearce over not taking Mookie to arbitration? LOL Why bring it up?
I honestly believe the arbitration case has zero to do with whether he re-signs. It's business. Everyone involved realizes that. That they're not all dumb as rocks is my assumption.
What I believe using logic and not emotion is that Mookie will sign the best deal and offer the Red Sox the choice of last refusal if he gets a better deal elsewhere. And that applies ONLY if he gets to free agency, which is still two years away.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Nov 19, 2018 13:49:41 GMT -5
You absolutely are trying to read Mookie's mind and use what you believe as fact. We have zero idea what his thoughts are on (eventually) signing an extension and what the arbitration process did to affect that decision. All we know right now is that he's only willing to sign year to year contracts which is what he said before he went to an arbitration hearing. That is it. We don't know why he wants to do that. He has never said why. He hasn't said he wants to leave Boston or is unhappy there. He hasn't said anything about it. For all we know, the MBLPA is driving all of his decisions. I guarantee you that re-signing Pearce has absolutely nothing to do with Mookie. Find one other person who believes that, I challenge you. I don't think it's hard to see what Mookie wants to do. He's been pretty transparent about it. He said he wants to be the best right fielder in baseball, has no desire to do anything else other than keep his 1 year deals going until he reaches the end of the 2020 season. He has said he's watching what happens with Bryce Harper closely. He wants to be paid. I don't think that if the Sox hadn't took him to arbitration they can re-sign him with a lower offer. He'll sign with the Red Sox after 2020 if they offer him the most money. He's going to the highest bidder. He's already said that he's betting on himself. He's not going to leave dollars on the table by signing early. So did the arbitration thing mean he won't sign with the Sox? No. Is it good to go to arbitration? No, it really isn't. I doubt the Sox were too nasty on him. I'm sure they pointed out his .264 average he had in 2017 and some other inconsistencies, things that Mookie would have no issue admitting himself, so I don't think the Sox burned any bridges with him. I hope they don't have to go to arbitration with him again this year, though. It might not burn any bridges, but the more often you go down the road, the possibility exists that it might. I trust Dombrowski knows how to handle these things gracefully, but the Sox did go 15 years without doing arbitration, so obviously it's something the organization wants to avoid at almost all costs. At the end of the day it's going to come down to how far John Henry is willing to go as far as Mookie's future contract goes. And I'm sure there will be other big market teams out there. The Yankees will lurk. The Dodgers and Cubs could be there. The Phillies perhaps. The Nats maybe. Probably other teams I haven't even mentioned. It'll be costly to keep Mookie. Hope the Sox will.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Nov 19, 2018 13:52:24 GMT -5
PFF, stopping negotiations after exchanging offers-"file and trial"-means they stop negotiations once the official numbers are submitted to the arbitrator. That does not mean that there were no negotiations beyond the club's first offer, which seems to be how you're misinterpreting this.
I still have not seen anything describing the actual negotiations.
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Post by jimed14 on Nov 19, 2018 13:53:42 GMT -5
You absolutely are trying to read Mookie's mind and use what you believe as fact. We have zero idea what his thoughts are on (eventually) signing an extension and what the arbitration process did to affect that decision. All we know right now is that he's only willing to sign year to year contracts which is what he said before he went to an arbitration hearing. That is it. We don't know why he wants to do that. He has never said why. He hasn't said he wants to leave Boston or is unhappy there. He hasn't said anything about it. For all we know, the MBLPA is driving all of his decisions. I guarantee you that re-signing Pearce has absolutely nothing to do with Mookie. Find one other person who believes that, I challenge you. I don't think it's hard to see what Mookie wants to do. He's been pretty transparent about it. He said he wants to be the best right fielder in baseball, has no desire to do anything else other than keep his 1 year deals going until he reaches the end of the 2020 season. He has said he's watching what happens with Bryce Harper closely. He wants to be paid. I don't think that if the Sox hadn't took him to arbitration they can re-sign him with a lower offer. He'll sign with the Red Sox after 2020 if they offer him the most money. He's going to the highest bidder. He's already said that he's betting on himself. He's not going to leave dollars on the table by signing early. So did the arbitration thing mean he won't sign with the Sox? No. Is it good to go to arbitration? No, it really isn't. I doubt the Sox were too nasty on him. I'm sure they pointed out his .264 average he had in 2017 and some other inconsistencies, things that Mookie would have no issue admitting himself, so I don't think the Sox burned any bridges with him. I hope they don't have to go to arbitration with him again this year, though. It might not burn any bridges, but the more often you go down the road, the possibility exists that it might. I trust Dombrowski knows how to handle these things gracefully, but the Sox did go 15 years without doing arbitration, so obviously it's something the organization wants to avoid at almost all costs. At the end of the day it's going to come down to how far John Henry is willing to go as far as Mookie's future contract goes. And I'm sure there will be other big market teams out there. The Yankees will lurk. The Dodgers and Cubs could be there. The Phillies perhaps. The Nats maybe. Probably other teams I haven't even mentioned. It'll be costly to keep Mookie. Hope the Sox will. And your post makes way more sense than pedro's. Complaining about signing Pearce over taking Mookie to arbitration is kind of ridiculous. They have nothing to do with each other. We didn't "blow" signing Mookie because we'd rather give Pearce $6.25 million for one season. I also believe that Mookie will sign the best deal regardless of being taken to arbitration or not.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Nov 19, 2018 13:56:23 GMT -5
Do you think that they chose paying Steve Pearce over not taking Mookie to arbitration? LOL Why bring it up? I honestly believe the arbitration case has zero to do with whether he re-signs. It's business. Everyone involved realizes that. That they're not all dumb as rocks is my assumption. I explained my reasoning on the first sentence. I believe the LOL part is Red Sox fans thinking arbitration isn't a big deal, when it was best to avoid it the past 17 years for the most part and thinking Mookie won't care in the end or might not hold a grudge over waisting his time in a hearing when they didn't attempt to settle.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Nov 19, 2018 13:58:19 GMT -5
PFF, stopping negotiations after exchanging offers-"file and trial"-means they stop negotiations once the official numbers are submitted to the arbitrator. That does not mean that there were no negotiations beyond the club's first offer, which seems to be how you're misinterpreting this. I still have not seen anything describing the actual negotiations. Okay, fair enough.
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Post by jimed14 on Nov 19, 2018 14:02:33 GMT -5
Do you think that they chose paying Steve Pearce over not taking Mookie to arbitration? LOL Why bring it up? I honestly believe the arbitration case has zero to do with whether he re-signs. It's business. Everyone involved realizes that. That they're not all dumb as rocks is my assumption. I explained my reasoning on the first sentence. I believe the LOL part is Red Sox fans thinking arbitration isn't a big deal, when it was best to avoid it the past 17 years for the most part and thinking Mookie won't care in the end or might not hold a grudge over waisting his time in a hearing when they didn't attempt to settle. The LOL part is thinking that a player has their feelings hurt without any evidence and therefore will only use that one emotion to make decisions about the rest of his career. The fact that he was drafted and developed by the Red Sox and he won the MVP in a championship season with great teammates and coaches mean zero compared that one fateful day in arbitration. In fact the new strategy is that the Red Sox should decide to immediately trade anyone who dares not negotiate before arbitration no matter what since it's impossible to sign an extension for any of them.
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gerry
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Post by gerry on Nov 19, 2018 14:10:14 GMT -5
I'm not reading anyone's mind here. For the second time. Of course Pearce and Mookie have nothing to do with each other, I just think it's a little negligent where the Sox are prioritizing their money. So you think taking Mookie to arbitration helps his case of signing a future extension in Boston? Do you really? You can do this without reading anyone's mind here like you keep insinuating. Have to agree with Jimed here, Pedro. We have some ideas, though based on limited information, WHAT has happened during the past couple of years’ negotiations. But we don’t have the whole story, not even close. And we have no idea about the WHY. Neither Mookie nor his agent nor the Sox have explained the why of anything, and no investigative reporter has dug up anything worthwhile. We only know Mookie wants to go year to year and has made his case for top dollar. Does his agent have a history of similar behavior with his clients? We don’t even know that. So it’s a guessing game. We MAY know more after the upcoming arb process. We may never really, factually, transparently know any of this and it’s really none of our business if Mookie wants to keep it personal and private, which is his right. Meanwhile, having WS-MVP Pearce platoon with GG Moreland for 2019 for a combined $13M, while one or two of Chavis, Ockimey, Dalbec, Travis make their case for 2020, is a good thing; and good timing, as that $13M will be off the books at the end of 2019 just in time to extend Xander. DDo is pretty smart.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Nov 19, 2018 14:13:44 GMT -5
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Dec 11, 2018 18:17:32 GMT -5
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Post by Oregon Norm on Dec 11, 2018 20:00:30 GMT -5
They already are by my calculations. Here's a printout that shows actual and estimated dollars they're committed to so far. The green is hard and fast (from Cot's), and the blue is arb estimates from MLB Trade Rumors. The yellow are numbers I calculated by using the % difference between MLB minimum and what the player was actually paid last year. I used that percentage to boost the 2019 salaries over the 2018 versions. That's a questionable approach with Benintendi likely to clear $1 million, but it's a starting point. The pink is sunk costs - Sandoval. This does not include any of the players who spent time with the club and can be expected to spend more this year. It's a ballpark estimate but probably within one or two million of the total - so far (click to expand):
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bosox
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Post by bosox on Dec 11, 2018 20:58:11 GMT -5
They already are by my calculations. Here's a printout that shows actual and estimated dollars they're committed to so far. The green is hard and fast (from Cot's), and the blue is arb estimates from MLB Trade Rumors. The yellow are numbers I calculated by using the % difference between MLB minimum and what the player was actually paid last year. I used that percentage to boost the 2019 salaries over the 2018 versions. That's a questionable approach with Benintendi likely to clear $1 million, but it's a starting point. The pink is sunk costs - Sandoval and Castillo. This does not include any of the players who spent time with the club and can be expected to spend more this year. It's a ballpark estimate but probably within one or two million of the total - so far (click to expand): Norm, are you counting Castillo's salary for luxury tax purposes? While the Sox still pay him, I don't believe he's included for luxury tax purposes.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Dec 11, 2018 22:30:18 GMT -5
I was counting that. I'll check and remove if that's the case. Thanks for the heads up.
Add: You're right about that, since he was DFA outright'd and re-signed. I'll remove that and get the update into that post... done.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Dec 12, 2018 1:57:22 GMT -5
You hears what you wanna hear, and sees what you wanna see. My reading is a lot closer to Smith's than McAdam's. He understands the implications of going over the threshold, and would much prefer not to do that, something he repeated twice. He also knows that they will not be able to re-sign everyone so they want to go for it while they can. That does not translate into McAdam's assurances. Since he's not the only smart exec with a front office job, others who understand his situation have approached him about the players who've been mentioned. No surprise there. So this is a real test, something the board saw coming when the system graduated all that talent and more got traded away. Dombrowski and company will have to find a way to squeeze under the limbo bar, not an easy thing to do without getting those fancy threads dirty.
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Post by unitspin on Dec 12, 2018 3:12:24 GMT -5
Id hate to see anyone traded this season but fact is xander is most likely gone next season along with Porcello and jbj as soon as he is a free agent. No way you pay 20+ for something crazy like ten years when if chris sale comes back healthly you can keep a dominant rotation together. You'll miss his bat but xanders defense is easily replaced. As well ill miss Porcello but erod should replace close to those numbers maybe shy on the innings pitched but thats another 20mil your saving. With those three players your able to keep mookie and sale moving forward ill take those two over the other three any day of the week.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Dec 12, 2018 6:25:18 GMT -5
I was counting that. I'll check and remove if that's the case. Thanks for the heads up. Add: You're right about that, since he was DFA'd and re-signed. I'll remove that and get the update into that post. Outrighted, but same effect I guess.
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Post by artfuldodger on Dec 12, 2018 8:40:59 GMT -5
Chris Sale is reportedly open to an extension. Would you be willing to offer 3 years/$90 million?
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Post by unitspin on Dec 12, 2018 9:06:38 GMT -5
Chris Sale is reportedly open to an extension. Would you be willing to offer 3 years/$90 million? I bet red sox would sign that in two secs if offered up. Hell if it was 4 at 30 I bet the sox still jump at it. If sale shows he is healthy he is looking at a David price type of contract.
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Post by GyIantosca on Dec 12, 2018 9:40:53 GMT -5
The Red Sox don’t have to do anything dumb ,after this season there’s a lot of money coming off the books. Lou Merloni can just join Tony Mazz and STFU. Didn’t the Sox just win it all. That’s right it’s hard to find a problem so make one up. Evoladi is a better Porcello going forward.
I am just surprised even after winning the title no peep from Xander or Mookie about signing long term. Jackie only has so much money value to him and then it doesn’t make sense. I am banking on a rebound year for the minor league system and whoever they lose the next 4 years probably have a QO attached to them , So that’s more assests.
Me personally regarding Betts if they offer him Trout money and he says no , I would listen next season not this year. We have to make one more run and like Hatfield said do a facelift. I like that word. Not a rebuild a facelift. But I wish Xander and Betts we could grow old with them. This contract is there best years.
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