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What does Cora do with JD in the NL Park?
gerry
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Post by gerry on Oct 20, 2018 19:51:16 GMT -5
The fear of Machado taking out Mookie is real. He can’t seem to help himself re: playing dirty. But IMO that would be remote if Cora is proactive with Dave Roberts and Mookie about this up front.
Wiith that in mind, keeping JBJ in CF and the bats of Mookie, Beni, JDM and JBJ in the lineup will far outweigh RF defense. Mookie is probably still an excellent 2B. JDM is better than expected at RF. Having Brockstar as PH/PR and Kinsler as backup 2B and PR off the bench are big advantages. I think its a good idea
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Post by soxjim on Oct 20, 2018 22:20:56 GMT -5
I was just watching the MLB Network and both "analysts" said they'd put JDM at 1st base. I never heard it as serious before. But then again the Mohawk analyst I think makes really dumb comments over-and-over and he didn't disappoint with the comments he made tonight. When it was mentioned that JDM hasn't played 1st base his reply was "Yes he has. Back in 2009." Are you kidding me? Then he went on to say "After 5 innings you can pull him for a defensive replacement." Again-- are you kidding me? If it's a close game you want to pull JDM?
And the other dude- Dan - he at least seemed rational but then he makes a stupid comment that he was very surprised how well the Red Sox team can hit. Are you kidding me? You mean you were surprised that the best hitting team in baseball might actually hit? I got to believe I didn't hear him right. But it just made me think that maybe this guy was just as silly as Mohawk.
Anyways, am I crazy to think that putting JDM at 1st is the worst possibility to consider?
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Post by patford on Oct 20, 2018 23:18:42 GMT -5
In my opinion Mookie could walk out on the field and be the best 2B-man in MLB tomorrow. I'll believe otherwise when I see the evidence.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Oct 21, 2018 0:08:43 GMT -5
The pitchers in LA will be Buehler, Ryu or Hill, and Kershaw. That's a starting point.
The second starting point is that if you simply add JDM to the OF and subtract someone, it's going to be JD in LF with Benny on the bench (where he will alter the entire relief strategy as a PH weapon). JBJ's .349 / .502 since June 24 is essentially identical to Benny's .366 / .465 on the season, and in fact JBJ has the meaningless edge in wRC+ 123 to 122. And you'd have a better chance arguing that Benny's late-season HR drought is predictive than arguing that what JBJ did before June 24 is. Since Bradley is the better player, going with the lineup that also least disrupts your defense is a no-brainer.
We know that putting Mookie at 2B is a huge defensive downgrade in RF and a crap shoot on defense at 2B. How much of an offensive upgrade is it? You're talking about getting Benny's bat into the lineup instead of Brock Holt in game 3.
Benny has a 126 wRC+ in his career versus RHP on the road, in 581 PA, and was 128 this year. So that's a known quantity.
Brock Holt is just 95 in his career, but he was 126 this year, granted, in just 142 PA. But of course we know that he did all of that damage after August 9 when he started using Mookie's bat. And that's just 40 PA. But it's 40 PA with a 175 wRC+ (he was 106 before that, probably what you'd get for his career to that point if you subtracted his concussion struggles). No matter how much air you think needs to be let out of the New Kid in the Brock phenomenon, it's impossible to argue that Benny is so much better at the plate than the Brockstar that it's worth a huge defensive downgrade. And the better the opposing pitcher, the more you favor defense as the tie-breaker in such decisions.
The other factor in this game is that Buehler is an extreme GB pitcher, ranking 28th among 152 MLB pitchers with 90+ IP. Our team was ordinary against GB pitchers, which gives me some pause. Holt in his career has really struggled against GB pitchers, while Benny has a mild split. But I suspect that those Brock splits are meaningless. Holt went from a .566 GB rate before August 9, which would have ranked 5th in MLB (of 247 hitters with 350+ PA), to .381 afterwards, which is 29th percentile (72nd lowest. This is, of course, yet more evidence that the transformation is real). And fly ball hitters tend to hit groundball pitchers.
How about games 4 and 5 against the two LHSP? Benny has a career 96 wRC+ in 159 PA, and was 94 this year. Kinsler, surprisingly, is just 98 in his career. Kinsler likes GB pitchers, though, and Kershaw is another fairly extreme one (ranking 25th), so that's an easy call. I don't think that they need to optimize the offense against Hill or Ryu, so the straight platoon at 2B (and in LF) is an obvious choice.
You folks know that I love outside the box, risky solutions (like signing Rich Hill instead of David Price). So any bias I might have would have been towards this move.
Now, what is interesting is that you have the option of hitting Benintendi for Kinsler and putting Mookie at 2B for a few innings, preserving Holt as another PH. That's a real good reason for Mookie to take some grounders at 2B, and in the spirit of the preceding paragraph, I'll be disappointed if we don't see that once! Unless it's because we have a solid lead in both games.
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Post by cba82 on Oct 21, 2018 6:47:00 GMT -5
The Red Sox knew for some time that they were going to the playoffs. You don't presume anything, of course, but the goal was to advance all the way to the World Series. So, why didn't they start JD for several games at first base during August and September?
My guess is that they worked him out there, and the answer is he can't play the position (not at an MLB level, anyway, and not in the World Series).
Now is not the time to be experimenting with guys at unfamiliar positions.
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Post by trajanacc on Oct 21, 2018 7:24:26 GMT -5
Let’s get the sexiest best-hitting lineup out there. Give JD some work in the bullpen today and get him in there at catcher. We all know defense doesn’t really matter.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Oct 21, 2018 8:39:01 GMT -5
Evan Drellich Verified account evandrellichMookie Betts at second base? Alex Cora: “I don’t know man, he already played second during the regular season. There’s always a chance, I guess." . . . Speaking with the media Saturday, Cora made it clear, per NBC Sports Boston’s Evan Drellich, that J.D. Martinez will be in Boston’s lineup for Games 3, 4 and potentially 5, should the best-of-seven series reach that point. While conventional leads one to believe that Jackie Bradley Jr. would be the odd-man out in this scenario, that might not be the case.
Read more at: nesn.com/2018/10/could-mookie-betts-play-second-base-in-world-series-alex-cora-addresses-idea/
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Post by jimed14 on Oct 21, 2018 8:43:45 GMT -5
I don't know, it doesn't sound like there's much of a chance based on how he said it.
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Post by iakovos11 on Oct 21, 2018 8:54:06 GMT -5
I doubt he starts at 2B, but I wouldn't be surprised at all if he plays a few innings there at some point in LA.
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Post by scottysmalls on Oct 21, 2018 9:52:38 GMT -5
I'm not sure it's the best strategy (or that it isn't) but it would definitely be fun to see Mookie at second in the World Series. Guessing the actual decision will come down to match ups and there'd have to believe there'd be a strong advantage to having Benintendi/JBJ in the lineup over Kinsler/Holt.
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Post by soxjim on Oct 21, 2018 10:17:17 GMT -5
The pitchers in LA will be Buehler, Ryu or Hill, and Kershaw. That's a starting point.
The second starting point is that if you simply add JDM to the OF and subtract someone, it's going to be JD in LF with Benny on the bench (where he will alter the entire relief strategy as a PH weapon). JBJ's .349 / .502 since June 24 is essentially identical to Benny's .366 / .465 on the season, and in fact JBJ has the meaningless edge in wRC+ 123 to 122. And you'd have a better chance arguing that Benny's late-season HR drought is predictive than arguing that what JBJ did before June 24 is. Since Bradley is the better player, going with the lineup that also least disrupts your defense is a no-brainer.
We know that putting Mookie at 2B is a huge defensive downgrade in RF and a crap shoot on defense at 2B. How much of an offensive upgrade is it? You're talking about getting Benny's bat into the lineup instead of Brock Holt in game 3.
Benny has a 126 wRC+ in his career versus RHP on the road, in 581 PA, and was 128 this year. So that's a known quantity.
Brock Holt is just 95 in his career, but he was 126 this year, granted, in just 142 PA. But of course we know that he did all of that damage after August 9 when he started using Mookie's bat. And that's just 40 PA. But it's 40 PA with a 175 wRC+ (he was 106 before that, probably what you'd get for his career to that point if you subtracted his concussion struggles). No matter how much air you think needs to be let out of the New Kid in the Brock phenomenon, it's impossible to argue that Benny is so much better at the plate than the Brockstar that it's worth a huge defensive downgrade. And the better the opposing pitcher, the more you favor defense as the tie-breaker in such decisions.
I think you have to take other factors into account between JBJ and Beni. Once JBJ turned it around did he do equally well vs both lefties and righties? Meaning is his OPS something like .900 vs righties while he is getting crushed vs lefties? And you have to look at same issue with Beni. Has he been hitting lefties any better from the start of the year to a certain point in time to the end of the season.He's hit 3 home runs in 3 months which is terrible but has he also done something to his swing that has accounted for hitting lefties if that has happened? I'm leaning though towards what you're thinking. Don't have Mookie play 2nd base. IMO What would change is if Beni and JBJ are hot after the 1st two games and Kinsler and Holt were not assuming both played in the 1st two games. But I doubt this would happen. Something is going on with Beni. Three home runs in 3 months - something is off.
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Post by klostrophobic on Oct 21, 2018 16:08:14 GMT -5
The pitchers in LA will be Buehler, Ryu or Hill, and Kershaw. That's a starting point. The second starting point is that if you simply add JDM to the OF and subtract someone, it's going to be JD in LF with Benny on the bench (where he will alter the entire relief strategy as a PH weapon). JBJ's .349 / .502 since June 24 is essentially identical to Benny's .366 / .465 on the season, and in fact JBJ has the meaningless edge in wRC+ 123 to 122. And you'd have a better chance arguing that Benny's late-season HR drought is predictive than arguing that what JBJ did before June 24 is. Since Bradley is the better player, going with the lineup that also least disrupts your defense is a no-brainer. We know that putting Mookie at 2B is a huge defensive downgrade in RF and a crap shoot on defense at 2B. How much of an offensive upgrade is it? You're talking about getting Benny's bat into the lineup instead of Brock Holt in game 3. Benny has a 126 wRC+ in his career versus RHP on the road, in 581 PA, and was 128 this year. So that's a known quantity.
Brock Holt is just 95 in his career, but he was 126 this year, granted, in just 142 PA. But of course we know that he did all of that damage after August 9 when he started using Mookie's bat. And that's just 40 PA. But it's 40 PA with a 175 wRC+ (he was 106 before that, probably what you'd get for his career to that point if you subtracted his concussion struggles). No matter how much air you think needs to be let out of the New Kid in the Brock phenomenon, it's impossible to argue that Benny is so much better at the plate than the Brockstar that it's worth a huge defensive downgrade. And the better the opposing pitcher, the more you favor defense as the tie-breaker in such decisions. I think you have to take other factors into account between JBJ and Beni. Once JBJ turned it around did he do equally well vs both lefties and righties? Meaning is his OPS something like .900 vs righties while he is getting crushed vs lefties? And you have to look at same issue with Beni. Has he been hitting lefties any better from the start of the year to a certain point in time to the end of the season.He's hit 3 home runs in 3 months which is terrible but has he also done something to his swing that has accounted for hitting lefties if that has happened? I'm leaning though towards what you're thinking. Don't have Mookie play 2nd base. IMO What would change is if Beni and JBJ are hot after the 1st two games and Kinsler and Holt were not assuming both played in the 1st two games. But I doubt this would happen. Something is going on with Beni. Three home runs in 3 months - something is off. Bradley has an 88 wRC+ in that same timeframe (since June 24) v LHP (136 v RHP). In the same timeframe, Benintendi has an 85 wRC+ v LHP (111 v RHP). So you could easily make the case that Bradley is a better pinch hit option given the disparity in RHP splits. But he's also the better fielder and if you take him out you have 3 players in the OF who don't have many innings at that specific spot (Mookie to CF, JDM to LF, Benintendi to RF). I'll take the better defensive outfield since it basically won them at least one game by itself.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Oct 21, 2018 21:06:49 GMT -5
Guerin Austin Verified account @guerinaustin Dustin working with Mookie at 2B. Cora- "There is a chance. If it makes sense, we'll do it."
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Post by soxjim on Oct 21, 2018 21:51:57 GMT -5
I think you have to take other factors into account between JBJ and Beni. Once JBJ turned it around did he do equally well vs both lefties and righties? Meaning is his OPS something like .900 vs righties while he is getting crushed vs lefties? And you have to look at same issue with Beni. Has he been hitting lefties any better from the start of the year to a certain point in time to the end of the season.He's hit 3 home runs in 3 months which is terrible but has he also done something to his swing that has accounted for hitting lefties if that has happened? I'm leaning though towards what you're thinking. Don't have Mookie play 2nd base. IMO What would change is if Beni and JBJ are hot after the 1st two games and Kinsler and Holt were not assuming both played in the 1st two games. But I doubt this would happen. Something is going on with Beni. Three home runs in 3 months - something is off. Bradley has an 88 wRC+ in that same timeframe (since June 24) v LHP (136 v RHP). In the same timeframe, Benintendi has an 85 wRC+ v LHP (111 v RHP). So you could easily make the case that Bradley is a better pinch hit option given the disparity in RHP splits. But he's also the better fielder and if you take him out you have 3 players in the OF who don't have many innings at that specific spot (Mookie to CF, JDM to LF, Benintendi to RF). I'll take the better defensive outfield since it basically won them at least one game by itself.What are you going to do with JDM?
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Post by klostrophobic on Oct 21, 2018 22:08:08 GMT -5
Bradley has an 88 wRC+ in that same timeframe (since June 24) v LHP (136 v RHP). In the same timeframe, Benintendi has an 85 wRC+ v LHP (111 v RHP). So you could easily make the case that Bradley is a better pinch hit option given the disparity in RHP splits. But he's also the better fielder and if you take him out you have 3 players in the OF who don't have many innings at that specific spot (Mookie to CF, JDM to LF, Benintendi to RF). I'll take the better defensive outfield since it basically won them at least one game by itself.What are you going to do with JDM? He'd be in left, in place of Benintendi.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Oct 22, 2018 1:43:16 GMT -5
I earlier said that Buehler will pitch game 3, but that's actually not certain.
They might pitch him in three days rest in game 2, even though he's never done it in his life. That would put three LHP as starters in L.A., with Ryu and Hill taking games 3 and 4, although not necessarily in that order.
It's a very tough decision for Roberts. Whoever starts game 2 in Fenway also starts game 6 (if there is one). Your game 3 starter is your game 7 starter.
Ryu has allowed a .299 career wOBA at home and a .301 on the road, but his ERA is 2.85 vs. 3.56. That's a pretty big difference to be all sequencing luck. In the post-season, he's made 3 starts each and is 2.11 versus 5.41. He also has a reverse split, which is somewhat bigger at home (.285 vs. .340) than on the road (.293 vs. .328).
You could run down the Sox order looking at 4-way splits. For instance, Mookie destroys LHP in Fenway but but pretty much has a neutral home / road split vs RHP. Benny has really struggled vs. LHP in Fenway. And so on. But both Ryu and Hill are LHSP with a reverse split; Ryu might be worse on the road than at home, while Hill has experience pitching effectively at Fenway; but Ryu is their 3rd starter and Hill is definitely their 4th best. And if you wat to avoid them both in game 2, then you have to gamble on a kid pitching out of his routine for the first time ever.
One way Roberts could do it:
Kersahw, Hill; Buehler, Ryu, Kershaw; either Hill on 5 and Buehler on 4, or Buehler on 3 followed by all hands on deck (Ryu on 3, Kershaw on 2, and everyone else).
That way you avoid what might be a needless 3-day-rest start by Buehler, while leaving the option option if you need it. But Buehler in game 2 would not surprise me.
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Post by dmaineah on Oct 22, 2018 9:11:55 GMT -5
After reading through all the post's and considering all the arguments I'd still start & think the Sox should start JD at 1B at L.A.
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Post by jimed14 on Oct 22, 2018 9:15:22 GMT -5
After reading through all the post's and considering all the arguments I'd still start & think the Sox should start JD at 1B at L.A. That's not even a possibility or else we would have heard JDM working out at 1B by now.
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radiohix
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Post by radiohix on Oct 22, 2018 9:21:21 GMT -5
After reading through all the post's and considering all the arguments I'd still start & think the Sox should start JD at 1B at L.A. Your takes are so terrible that sometimes I think you're just trolling us.
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Post by iakovos11 on Oct 22, 2018 11:27:34 GMT -5
After reading through all the post's and considering all the arguments I'd still start & think the Sox should start JD at 1B at L.A. If they just have him pitch every game in L.A., no issues. He's in the lineup and no pitcher has to take a bat. Well, at least until they bring the relievers. JDM is likely only good for 5-6 innings each night.
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Post by klostrophobic on Oct 22, 2018 12:23:16 GMT -5
After reading through all the post's and considering all the arguments I'd still start & think the Sox should start JD at 1B at L.A. Sale is going to be the starting left fielder so they can get his bat in the lineup, too.
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Post by soxjim on Oct 22, 2018 12:49:31 GMT -5
After reading through all the post's and considering all the arguments I'd still start & think the Sox should start JD at 1B at L.A. Take a look at Mo Vaugh's 1995 season in which his slash was .300/.388/.575/.963 with 28 doubles, 3 triples, 39 home runs and 126 RBI's. That's the potential you'd be losing by not playing Pearce vs lefties. Instead Pearce would have about 45+ doubles with only 25 home runs but overall the OPS numbers only off by .004. That's the type of potential production you potentially lose by not playing Pearce.
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Post by jimed14 on Oct 22, 2018 16:48:12 GMT -5
Cafardo brought up the point that I had already thought about. Do you want Mookie at 2B when Machado is running the bases?
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Post by dmaineah on Oct 22, 2018 17:46:39 GMT -5
After reading through all the post's and considering all the arguments I'd still start & think the Sox should start JD at 1B at L.A. Take a look at Mo Vaugh's 1995 season in which his slash was .300/.388/.575/.963 with 28 doubles, 3 triples, 39 home runs and 126 RBI's. That's the potential you'd be losing by not playing Pearce vs lefties. Instead Pearce would have about 45+ doubles with only 25 home runs but overall the OPS numbers only off by .004. That's the type of potential production you potentially lose by not playing Pearce. I've read & listened to enough arguments against JD not playing 1B, starting Mookie at 2B and all the other scenarios & I am not convinced. I think the best team to put on the field to start the game in L.A. is JD at 1B & a platoon of Devers/Nunez at 3B & a platoon of Holt/Kipnis at 2B vs SP RHP/LHP. Pearce & Moreland and who ever is not starting at 2B & 3B along with Swihart/Vazquez ( I think Leon should start) makes for a great bench to use in a NL Park. Benintendi, JBJ & Mookie should play every inning of every game in the Outfield. And no I'm not trolling you. I believe J.D. is a great athlete and Baseball PLAYER & can play 1B.
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Post by jerrygarciaparra on Oct 22, 2018 18:00:06 GMT -5
Win ballgames....what else ??
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