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Post by jiant2520 on Oct 24, 2018 22:29:56 GMT -5
Would Washington trade him? Probably not, but hear me out.
If they lose Harper, and I think they will, they may decide to rebuild the team.
Scherzer signed a 7 year deal and just finished the 4th year. His contract was a huge bargin those first four years, but now his contract really inflats and he will be pitching the next three years at age 34, 35 and 36. See below contract from Cots:
7 years/$210M (2015-21) signed by Washington as a free agent 1/21/15 $50M signing bonus $5M in 2015 and $15M each in 2019, 2020, 2021 payments in equal semiannual installments, April-September salaries: 15:$10M, 16-18:$15M annually. 19-21:$35M annually 2019-21 salaries ($105M) deferred without interest, to be paid in seven $15M installments each July 1 from 2022 to 2028 deferrals reduce contract’s present-day value to $191,401,086 (by MLB calculation) or $191,409,858 (MLBPA calculation) for purposes of annual payrolls (including salaries and a pro-rated 1/7 share of the signing bonus), Scherzer will earn $17,142,857 in 2015, $22,142,857 annually in 2016-18, $37,405,562 in 2019, $35,920,616 in 2020, and $34,503,480 in 2021 (salaries and bonus paid before the contract expires are not discounted, but 2019-21 salaries are discounted to $30,262,705, $28,777,759 and $27,360,623, respectively, as money paid after deal’s expiration)
On top of this Strausburg is due to make $35 mil in 2019 and having two pitchers tie up $70 is quite a lot, especially if with losing Harper they feel as if they are not WS contenders. Atl and Phi are improved and Wash is not too good even with Harper.
All said, not sure Boston can afford Scherzer at $35 mil anyway, not to mention what it may take in trade assets...
But, could this be an option?
Sale at 5-7 years at $35 mil per year or Scherzer at 3 years at $35 mil per, plus prospects of some sort too...
Just a thought, not saying I would do it, or even that this is a possibility.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Oct 24, 2018 22:55:28 GMT -5
The Nationals aren't rebuilding.
They have one of the best young players in baseball in Luis Soto, who is the next Bryce Harper, he is maybe even better than Harper.
No chance of happening. The Sox need to find the next Scherzer. Dombrowski did it 8-10 years ago, maybe he can do it again.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Oct 24, 2018 23:13:42 GMT -5
Wow that really makes him more valuable! Jaint you act like it would be a lot of money after saying it would be deferred. Two pitchers would count for 70 million cap, wouldn't they? Yet zero cash payout. You pay nothing for the next 3 years and then 15 million for 7 years. Good deal for the team and frankly a good deal for the player. If I was an agent I'd gladly defer money for years. Help make sure these guys never go broke and in the long-run it costs teams less in actual dollars and increases profits.
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Post by jiant2520 on Oct 25, 2018 13:53:39 GMT -5
But for payroll reasons will it not count $37, $36 and $34.5 mil over the next three years? He actually gets paid $35 mil each year from 19, 20 and 21, no? The savings Wash had the last four years gets paid out $15 mil per from 2022 on...
Either way, I don't think it will ever actually happen, just saw his contract and thought to dicuss it.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Oct 25, 2018 14:48:59 GMT -5
In Baseball its the AVV for luxury tax, so the number doesn't change, just what the player receives. He'll count for 30 million the next 3 years, just like he did for the past four years.
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Post by jimed14 on Oct 25, 2018 14:50:45 GMT -5
I highly doubt that the Nationals or Red Sox have cash flow problems.
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Post by jiant2520 on Oct 25, 2018 18:22:16 GMT -5
In Baseball its the AVV for luxury tax, so the number doesn't change, just what the player receives. He'll count for 30 million the next 3 years, just like he did for the past four years. Ahh, yeah
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Post by rivenp on Oct 25, 2018 22:48:02 GMT -5
nationals underperformed this past year but they still have a competitive roster even without harper and it's not like their division has a dominant team...they were within contention range basically the whole year.
the obvious sp#1 trade candidate is degrom...though san fran really should blow it up and make bumgarner available. arizona also needs to decide on direction and could part with greinke even if they want to continue to compete as they don't have the same finances as the giants.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Oct 25, 2018 23:16:46 GMT -5
Harper might be one of the most overrated players in baseball and he's about to be overpaid at it too.
I don't get the hype around him. The Nationals will probably be a little worse without him, but Harper has put up one spectacular year in his career so far. He's still young, that's the only great thing he can say about his career to date.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Oct 29, 2018 8:44:48 GMT -5
Harper might be one of the most overrated players in baseball and he's about to be overpaid at it too. I don't get the hype around him. The Nationals will probably be a little worse without him, but Harper has put up one spectacular year in his career so far. He's still young, that's the only great thing he can say about his career to date. Mookie Betts: 26 years old, .303/.370/.518 career batting line, 30.5 fWAR Bryce Harper: 26 years old, .279/.388/.512 career batting line, 30.7 fWAR
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Oct 29, 2018 11:10:38 GMT -5
Harper might be one of the most overrated players in baseball and he's about to be overpaid at it too. I don't get the hype around him. The Nationals will probably be a little worse without him, but Harper has put up one spectacular year in his career so far. He's still young, that's the only great thing he can say about his career to date. Mookie Betts: 26 years old, .303/.370/.518 career batting line, 30.5 fWAR Bryce Harper: 26 years old, .279/.388/.512 career batting line, 30.7 fWAR Lol Harper has been in the league since 2012. Betts has been in the league since 2015. Harper is coming off a healthy year where he put up a 1.3 bWAR season, while Betts had a WAR over 10. He's still overrated. Yeap.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Oct 29, 2018 12:54:25 GMT -5
Harper might be one of the most overrated players in baseball and he's about to be overpaid at it too. I don't get the hype around him. The Nationals will probably be a little worse without him, but Harper has put up one spectacular year in his career so far. He's still young, that's the only great thing he can say about his career to date. Mookie Betts: 26 years old, .303/.370/.518 career batting line, 30.5 fWAR Bryce Harper: 26 years old, .279/.388/.512 career batting line, 30.7 fWAR Harper has played 7 years in the majors, Betts 4 and 1/3 years. Harper 27.4 bwar, Betts 35.2 bwar. Lets just look at the last 4 Harper 10, 1.5, 4.7, 1.3 Betts 5.9, 9.7, 6.4, and 10.9. Harper is a good player, yet I don't see the 300, 400, heck 500 million dollar player people were talking about. He gets injured a lot and he's gone from elite OF, to about average to crappy OF. That might be a one year outlier, but I was amazed at his -26 DRS, that is like Hanley level bad. Given his standing and they way people talk about him, yea he might be the most overrated player in the game.
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Post by James Dunne on Oct 29, 2018 15:34:40 GMT -5
The tyranny of expectations.
More people seem to like talking about how Harper is "overrated" because, instead of the once-in-a-lifetime talent he looked like he might be, he's merely, like, Average Joe All-Star. A 3.5-5.5 WAR player who has turned in a seminal season before turning 25 and is hitting free agency very young. You can enjoy a player like that, or you can grouse about perceiving that you think that other people think he's better than you think they should think he is. One of those things seems fun to me and the other seems tiring as hell. But I'm not here to tell anyone else how to enjoy the game.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Oct 29, 2018 16:09:34 GMT -5
The tyranny of expectations. More people seem to like talking about how Harper is "overrated" because, instead of the once-in-a-lifetime talent he looked like he might be, he's merely, like, Average Joe All-Star. A 3.5-5.5 WAR player who has turned in a seminal season before turning 25 and is hitting free agency very young. You can enjoy a player like that, or you can grouse about perceiving that you think that other people think he's better than you think they should think he is. One of those things seems fun to me and the other seems tiring as hell. But I'm not here to tell anyone else how to enjoy the game. He's a free agent looking for the biggest contract in Baseball history. There is only one way to look at him, he's either worth it or he's overrated and isn't. Unless you think he's signing for Martinez money? You act like money doesn't matter we should just enjoy Baseball and forget about the economics of it, but you can't with Baseballs new luxury tax system.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Oct 29, 2018 16:17:08 GMT -5
The tyranny of expectations. More people seem to like talking about how Harper is "overrated" because, instead of the once-in-a-lifetime talent he looked like he might be, he's merely, like, Average Joe All-Star. A 3.5-5.5 WAR player who has turned in a seminal season before turning 25 and is hitting free agency very young. You can enjoy a player like that, or you can grouse about perceiving that you think that other people think he's better than you think they should think he is. One of those things seems fun to me and the other seems tiring as hell. But I'm not here to tell anyone else how to enjoy the game. He's a free agent looking for the biggest contract in Baseball history. There is only one way to look at him, he's either worth it or he's overrated and isn't. Unless you think he's signing for Martinez money? You act like money doesn't matter we should just enjoy Baseball and forget about the economics of it, but you can't with Baseballs new luxury tax system. Great post UMass. What Harper did at a young age was special and unique, but we are talking about value and how he compares to the greatest players in the league. You pick and chose the players you want to pay, and if you pick the wrong guy, you could be screwed for years. Harper in my mind isn't worth the hype, money, or value anymore. If he had 4 years of control and he was 22 again would he be worth it? Yeap.
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Post by jimed14 on Oct 29, 2018 16:18:46 GMT -5
All I know is that Mookie's bar should be set much higher than Harper and Machado's.
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Post by James Dunne on Oct 30, 2018 6:37:59 GMT -5
All I know is that Mookie's bar should be set much higher than Harper and Machado's. No kidding? I mean... I don't think FTHW's point was that Harper is as good as Betts--certainly not as an overall player. It's that Harper has been a lot better than he's gotten credit for, because of the unreasonable expectations people have for him. He was fifth in the NL in OBP, 14th in SLG despite having a BABIP 30 points below his career norm. I don't know quite what went on with his defense last year - seriously, he was probably the worst defensive player in the game, which was totally out of line with his previous value and with his athleticism. I don't know if that portends a position chance or some better coaching or if something else was going on, but .400 OBP/.500 SLG don't usually hit free agency at 26, and when they do they're going to push the market, and they're obviously going to make the lineup that they are in better. If his defense can get sorted he's pretty easily a $30M AAV player, and at his age he's going to get at least eight years if he wants it.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Oct 30, 2018 11:40:15 GMT -5
Ok, a few things about Harper
1. The symmetry between Betts and Harper's career batting numbers was just too good of a bomb to throw. Try to blame me.
2. I like how everyone switched to bWAR from fWAR because doing so knocks over two wins off his 2018 total. I'm not trying to say that his defense was actually good last year, but given that he's never been a liability on defense before, I'm more inclined to believe the metrics that have him as merely very bad over the ones that are downright apocalyptic. I also don't see any reason why his defense has to be super terrible going forward, he's not slow and he's never had a problem tracking balls or anything like that as far as I know.
3. Despite the weirdly low WAR totals in 2018, his offensive skills remained very strong. Over an 18% walk rate, .247 ISO, healthy exit velo and launch angle numbers, a little bit of a down BABIP... I don't see anything in his profile that suggest he's anything but a stud hitter. His biggest problem was pulling the ball into the shift in the first half, which he corrected in the second half, to the tune of a .300/.434/.538 line.
4. As far as comparing Harper and Betts, it seems ridiculous coming off the seasons they just had. But Harper has had a season that was very comparable to what Betts did this year, it just came earlier in his career. That's why I pointed out the career slash lines, because the difference in these guys as hitters right now is more in sequencing than in their total output. Obviously the sequencing does matter because you weigh more recent performance more heavily, but at the same time, it's a little weird to assume that Harper can never get back career best performance, but Betts is definitely going to maintain his.
5. Finally: would I take Harper over Betts? No, that's stupid. Betts is a better defender, better athlete, has a better track record of health, has been less susceptible to prolonged slumps, etc. He's been better, and thus is likely to continue to be better. That said, do I think it's a dead mortal lock that the remainder of Betts's career is better than the remainder of Harper's? No, that would also be stupid. Adrian Beltre was Bryce Harper too once, a guy who had an MVP campaign really early on and then never lived up to that potential... until he turned 31 and decided he'd hit .307/.358/.514 for his next 5000-odd plate appearances. Through their respective age 30 seasons, Beltre had 44.6 bWAR, and Albert Pujols had 81.4. As of today, the totals are 95.7 for Beltre and an even 100 for Pujols, and Beltre could realistically pass him next year if they both play full-ish seasons. And if that can happen, than Bryce Harper can be a better player than Mookie Betts starting in 2019. Again, not the most likely outcome, but I don't see why it can't happen. He's young enough, he's skilled enough, he's made it halfway to a HOF-worthy WAR total by his age 26 season without fully living up to his potential. He can be the best player in baseball for the next five years, and there's not a lot of guys you can say that about.
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Post by jiant2520 on Oct 30, 2018 12:19:46 GMT -5
What was that about Max Scherzer again?? Lol.
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Post by jdb on Oct 30, 2018 12:44:26 GMT -5
I don’t see Scherzer going anywhere. Even if they lose Harper they can compete in the NL east. If any big name/salary starter gets moved it will be Grienkie.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Oct 30, 2018 14:43:27 GMT -5
This is what I see with Harper 5.2, 3.7, 1.1, 10.0, 1.5, 4.7, 1.3 bwar. I always use bwar by the way. 60% of his last 5 years are no where near worth 30 million or 250 million minimum. He's a good player, that is for sure. He's about to get the biggest contract in Baseball history though. So you can't just be like he's a good player and young. You gotta ask yourself why he has so many seasons of between 1.1 and 1.5 bwar. Even just looking at his offensive bwar it was 4.2, after being 4.3 the year before and 1.9 the year before that. Very good numbers, yet no where near worth what the rumors say.
Sure there is always the chance he has more 2015 type seasons in him. Yet it seems crazy to make him one if not the highest payed player, hoping that is his real talent in his prime. Frankly that looks like an outlier and he's so up and down that its not even funny. If I had the choice of signing him or Martinez I'd take Martinez. The guy has posted 4 or offensive bwar since his age 26 season even with injuries. He's consistent and thats what I want out of players being paid huge money.
Fenways point is basically why I think he's overrated. Everyone keeps waiting for 2015 again, like it has to happen or it has a very good chance of happening. He's going to be paid more based on 2015, than his other 6 seasons and that is my issue. He hasn't come close that type of offensive production before or after. He was 9.1 offensive bwars in 2015, he's been worth 10.4 the last three years combined. He's closer to Martinez and Xander based on value, yet he's being compared to Betts.
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Post by jiant2520 on Oct 30, 2018 15:52:32 GMT -5
I don’t see Scherzer going anywhere. Even if they lose Harper they can compete in the NL east. If any big name/salary starter gets moved it will be Grienkie. I don't think Scherzer goes anywhere either
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