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2018 National Red Sox Season-End Rankings
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Post by soxin8 on Oct 26, 2018 15:43:30 GMT -5
I don't know if it is posted somewhere else but Alex Speier had his Red Sox chat on BA today.
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Post by jmei on Oct 29, 2018 12:13:18 GMT -5
Here are Marc Hulet (Fangraphs fantasy baseball writer)'s season-end rankings (with individual scouting reports in the link): www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/boston-red-sox-top-10-prospects-updated/1. Michael Chavis 2. Tanner Houck 3. Jay Groome 4. C.J. Chatham 5. Triston Casas 6. Bryan Mata 7. Darwinzon Hernandez 8. Bobby Dalbec 9. Mike Shawaryn 10. Alex Scherff Just missed: Travis Lakins, Jhonathan Diaz, Danny Diaz
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Post by jimed14 on Oct 29, 2018 12:15:29 GMT -5
Chatham at 4 sure is interesting, but it's probably more about how bad the system is.
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Post by iakovos11 on Oct 29, 2018 12:55:45 GMT -5
Jhonathan Diaz "just missed" is more than a little interesting.
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Post by jmei on Oct 29, 2018 15:55:55 GMT -5
Chatham at 4 sure is interesting, but it's probably more about how bad the system is. Chatham is one of those lowish-ceiling prospects that gets underrated because there's not much to dream on in terms of upside, but solid defense at SS is enough of a carrying tool such that if he stays healthy, he probably makes the majors at some point, and that's enough to rank him highly in a middling system. That said, I think Hulet ranks him a tough too high-- between his age relative to level, injury history and lack of above-average offensive tools, I'm not sure that the floor really is that high.
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radiohix
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'At the end of the day, we bang. We bang. We're going to swing.' Alex Verdugo
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Post by radiohix on Oct 29, 2018 16:05:09 GMT -5
Here are Marc Hulet (Fangraphs fantasy baseball writer)'s season-end rankings (with individual scouting reports in the link): www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/boston-red-sox-top-10-prospects-updated/1. Michael Chavis 2. Tanner Houck 3. Jay Groome 4. C.J. Chatham 5. Triston Casas 6. Bryan Mata 7. Darwinzon Hernandez 8. Bobby Dalbec 9. Mike Shawaryn 10. Alex Scherff Just missed: Travis Lakins, Jhonathan Diaz, Danny DiazHmmmm Danny Diaz just missed but no Antoni Flores? I don't know how to feel about that. On the other hand, Hulet was the first national writer to include Mookie in his Top 10 after his season IN LOWELL (he slugged .307 that year!!!) so what do I know?
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Post by ramireja on Oct 30, 2018 13:20:01 GMT -5
I thought this was a great and informative Top 30 list from Prospects Live. These rankings tend to vibe fairly well with what we have going on here at SP and they are similarly high on guys like Flores, Jimenez, Shugart, and Bello (based on their own looks at Instructs). Here are their top 10: 1. Chavis 2. Casas 3. Dalbec 4. Groome 5. Flores 6. Shawaryn 7. Hernandez 8. Houck 9. Feltman 10. Mata
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Oct 30, 2018 21:17:50 GMT -5
Moved discussion of the national lists out of the thread discussing the site's list, just to make sure each discussion could breathe. I was never much of a fan of Hulet's rankings TBH. At FG, I put way more stock in McDaniel and Longenhagen (whose new, Cistulli-less podcast is a great listen, by the way). By the way, stunned that nobody posted the BA Top 10, which came out last week while we were all distracted and had kind of a stunner at the top (IMHO): www.baseballamerica.com/teams/1003/boston-red-sox/organizational/?year=20191. Bobby Dalbec, 3B 2. Michael Chavis, 3B 3. Darwinzon Hernandez, LHP 4. Jay Groome, LHP 5. Triston Casas, 3B 6. Bryan Mata, RHP 7. Tanner Houck, RHP 8. Mike Shawaryn, RHP 9. Antoni Flores, SS 10. CJ Chatham, SS Plus some good stuff in Alex's chat: www.baseballamerica.com/stories/boston-red-sox-2019-top-10-prospects-chat/
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Post by ramireja on Oct 31, 2018 11:41:13 GMT -5
Conspiracy theory: Speier is in cahoots with the org to pump the Dalbec offseason hype as a way of maximizing trade value. Note: I don't really believe that (Speier has too much integrity), but I am in favor of trading Dalbec while I personally believe his trade value to be at peak.
I also don't put a ton of stock into Hulet's prospect rankings, but as a Houck homer, I do like him toward the top of the list rather than in the back end of the Top 10 where he seems to be falling among most lists.
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Post by iakovos11 on Oct 31, 2018 12:44:14 GMT -5
Conspiracy theory: Speier is in cahoots with the org to pump the Dalbec offseason hype as a way of maximizing trade value. Note: I don't really believe that (Speier has too much integrity), but I am in favor of trading Dalbec while I personally believe his trade value to be at peak. I also don't put a ton of stock into Hulet's prospect rankings, but as a Houck homer, I do like him toward the top of the list rather than in the back end of the Top 10 where he seems to be falling among most lists. Agree on trading Dalbec if they can reasonable return. Those K's are tantalizing, but just too much.
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huskies15
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Post by huskies15 on Oct 31, 2018 13:41:57 GMT -5
The Bobby Dalbec experience is one of the crazier things I've followed in the system since I started paying attention. A great combo of skills offset by one fatal flaw. It's fascinating.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Nov 10, 2018 7:09:23 GMT -5
The Bobby Dalbec experience is one of the crazier things I've followed in the system since I started paying attention. A great combo of skills offset by one fatal flaw. It's fascinating. Well, I think to call it "one fatal flaw" is really to combine a few different things into one category, which makes sense given that they all come out as "strikeouts." I was coming in here to post the yearly companion piece from the Globe that Alex writes to go deeper into his rankings, and would point to this quote: Meanwhile, in a quote Ray posted in the AFL thread, Law talked about his inability to discern spin, a point with which I'm inclined to agree. There's no single thing that goes into posting K rates as high as Dalbec's. But I definitely get your point - it speaks to his talent that the rest of his numbers are so good despite the weaker parts of his offensive game. ---- Anyway, here's the Globe piece. It's a must-read, as alaways. www.bostonglobe.com/sports/redsox/2018/11/07/few-other-thoughts-red-sox-top-prospects-and-trade-chips/vxMIV451gNrvBfEySdtBtI/story.html
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Nov 11, 2018 20:14:38 GMT -5
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Nov 16, 2018 18:13:28 GMT -5
Sickels posts his top 20 and will discuss and answer questions in the comments 1) Michael Chavis, 3B, Grade B 2) Bobby Dalbec, 3B, Grade B 3) Triston Casas, 1B-3B, Grade B 4) Darwinzon Hernandez, LHP, Grade B 5) Bryan Mata, RHP, Grade B 6) Tanner Houck, RHP, Grade B/B 7) Jay Groome, LHP, Grade B- 8) Mike Shawaryn, RHP, Grade B- 9) C.J. Chatham, SS, Grade B- 10) Antoni Flores, SS, Grade B- 11) Durbin Feltman, RHP, Grade B- 12) Nick Decker, OF, Grade C+/B- 13) Denyi Reyes, RHP, Grade C+ 14) Jarren Duran, INF-OF, Grade C+ 15) Josh Ockimey, 1B, Grade C+ 16) Brandon Howlett, 3B, Grade C+ 17) Travis Lakins, RHP, Grade C+ 18) Bobby Poyner, LHP, Grade C+ 19) Jhonathan Diaz, LHP, Grade C+ 20) Kutter Crawford, RHP, Grade C+ "I don’t think that much of this is a surprise, with the exception of Denyi Reyes at number 13, which is probably nine or ten spots higher than other lists will have him. I’m taking a gamble on his pitchability being enough as he moves up." www.minorleagueball.com/2018/11/16/18099138/boston-red-sox-top-20-prospects-for-2019?fbclid=IwAR0I1vaG_A19LXrztSniHJ9QR2Bu1EqIJD2Ydm-uvdwhDP_fSKXf83zB8jk
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Post by soxin8 on Dec 4, 2018 14:16:08 GMT -5
I followed Chris's tweet about KRS Dunn (didn't know he wrote with Sickels) and found John's Sox top 20 he published Nov 16 on Minor League Ball. I didn't see it listed anywhere else on this site. Maybe someone with more computer skills would like to link it? Kris and John also did a podcast discussing their rankings and some of the players if anyone is interested.
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Post by kingstephanos on Jan 10, 2019 2:06:28 GMT -5
"New England : What lower level Red Sox prospects should we be keeping an eye on who could be the next wave of top performers? 12:33 Kiley McDaniel: List probably will be up tomorrow and the 14-25 area has about a half dozen of them. One that’s above that tier is SS Antoni Flores. Get in on that while you can" blogs.fangraphs.com/kiley-mcdaniel-chat-1-9-19/
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Post by soxfansince67 on Jan 10, 2019 10:12:51 GMT -5
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huskies15
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Post by huskies15 on Jan 10, 2019 10:43:23 GMT -5
Eric and Kiley basically saying that last years draft and the 2017/18 IFA classes have to carry the system. Makes sense and their write-ups on the players are thorough.
Great read.
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Post by ramireja on Jan 10, 2019 12:23:27 GMT -5
At first glance, definitely an interesting list. They have Casas & Hernandez over Chavis (albeit on the same FV 45 tier, so essentially the same). Their top 26 list also includes guys like Brayan Bello (who I like), Roniel Raudes, Yoan Aybar, Eduardo Lopez and Marino Campana but no Ockimey or Scherff.
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Post by jimed14 on Jan 10, 2019 12:35:44 GMT -5
The writeup for Gilberto Jimenez is pretty interesting.
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Post by James Dunne on Jan 10, 2019 12:54:50 GMT -5
The writeup for Gilberto Jimenez is pretty interesting. I know this is an oversimplification, but he sounds exactly like who they hoped Cole Brannen would be.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Jan 10, 2019 13:19:24 GMT -5
I always love more information, yet hate fangraphs prospect rankings. When looking at the worst system in Baseball, it will produce a FV 50 type prospect. So to look at a whole system and predict it doesn't have even one of those is comical. Guy like Keith Law might go too far in rating upside, but fangraphs does the exact opposite. I'll bet $10,000 that the players in this system produce at minimum one FV 50 player!
It's far more likely we at minimum have a few FV 50 guys and at least one FV 55 guy.
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Post by jimed14 on Jan 10, 2019 13:24:23 GMT -5
I always love more information, yet hate fangraphs prospect rankings. When looking at the worst system in Baseball, it will produce a FV 50 type prospect. So to look at a whole system and predict it doesn't have even one of those is comical. Guy like Keith Law might go too far in rating upside, but fangraphs does the exact opposite. I'll bet $10,000 that the players in this system produce at minimum one FV 50 player! It's far more likely we at minimum have a few FV 50 guys and at least one FV 55 guy. This site only has one prospect listed as a FV 50, Chavis. The thing is, your bet is pretty meaningless. Of course prospects will sometimes outperform their future values. But that doesn't mean anything when ranking them individually. You can't just say 'odds are, someone will be a 50, so therefore, you have to rank a bunch of them at 50 because you think some of them will improve more than you can predict today.'
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Post by James Dunne on Jan 10, 2019 13:27:32 GMT -5
I always love more information, yet hate fangraphs prospect rankings. When looking at the worst system in Baseball, it will produce a FV 50 type prospect. So to look at a whole system and predict it doesn't have even one of those is comical. Guy like Keith Law might go too far in rating upside, but fangraphs does the exact opposite. I'll bet $10,000 that the players in this system produce at minimum one FV 50 player! It's far more likely we at minimum have a few FV 50 guys and at least one FV 55 guy. If you have three 45 FV prospects, chances are one will develop into a role five type, sure. The issue is choosing which one. I wouldn't be surprised if one of Casas, Decker, and Flores is an All-Star one day, but I don't think I would bet even odds on any one of the three on their own. They aren't saying that the system will produce zero 50 players, they're saying there is no individual player they'd currently feel comfortable putting a 50 on. Frankly, if they're low on Chavis then I probably agree with that assessment.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Jan 10, 2019 14:04:45 GMT -5
I always love more information, yet hate fangraphs prospect rankings. When looking at the worst system in Baseball, it will produce a FV 50 type prospect. So to look at a whole system and predict it doesn't have even one of those is comical. Guy like Keith Law might go too far in rating upside, but fangraphs does the exact opposite. I'll bet $10,000 that the players in this system produce at minimum one FV 50 player! It's far more likely we at minimum have a few FV 50 guys and at least one FV 55 guy. This site only has one prospect listed as a FV 50, Chavis. The thing is, your bet is pretty meaningless. Of course prospects will sometimes outperform their future values. But that doesn't mean anything when ranking them individually. You can't just say 'odds are, someone will be a 50, so therefore, we have to rank a bunch of them at 50 because you think some of them will improve more than you can predict today.' They use these rankings to then predict our farm system will produce 6.1 fwar worth 55 million. So yea I can say just that because that is a crazy number.
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