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2018-19 Non-Red Sox Offseason Thread
manfred
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Post by manfred on Oct 29, 2018 21:05:13 GMT -5
Giants exercise option on Panda. That is all.
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Post by jimed14 on Oct 31, 2018 12:56:59 GMT -5
The Mets job is going to someone who doesn’t think they’re going to get a shot otherwise. That alone makes Romero an unlikely candidate. Brodie Van Wagenen sounds smart as hell. He was just on MLB Network talking about analytics. The Mets invested almost zero in it before this hire and he's going to revamp everything to try to catch up with good teams. Of course there's still the Wilpon thing holding him back, and likely that will never change. But it looks like a good hire on the surface, one of their first in awhile.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Oct 31, 2018 13:08:48 GMT -5
The Mets job is going to someone who doesn’t think they’re going to get a shot otherwise. That alone makes Romero an unlikely candidate. Brodie Van Wagenen sounds smart as hell. He was just on MLB Network talking about analytics. The Mets invested almost zero in it before this hire and he's going to revamp everything to try to catch up with good teams. Of course there's still the Wilpon thing holding him back, and likely that will never change. But it looks like a good hire on the surface, one of their first in awhile. Fortunately, David Roth has weighed in on this, so I can just outsource it to him. deadspin.com/baseballs-weirdest-team-makes-a-weird-gm-hire-but-mayb-1830063025?rev=1540852441972
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Oct 31, 2018 22:50:19 GMT -5
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Nov 1, 2018 0:54:40 GMT -5
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Post by libertine on Nov 1, 2018 1:20:04 GMT -5
I remember him from back half of his career and he was still awesome then. I can just imagine what he was like in his prime. RIP Stretch...
He was even referenced in a Peanuts strip with Charlie Brown lamenting "Why couldn't he have hit the ball 2 feet higher!" when he made the last out of the 1962 World Series (the only one he played in). One of the hardest hit balls I have even seen...hit right at Bobby Richardson.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Nov 2, 2018 1:44:42 GMT -5
Another opt out retained.
Official: David Freese will return to the #Dodgers in 2019:
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Nov 2, 2018 1:45:46 GMT -5
Ken Rosenthal Verified account @ken_Rosenthal
#Cubs might make a trade to clear salary before picking up Hamels’ $20M option, sources tell The Athletic. At this point, a long-term deal for Hamels is unlikely. If Cubs decline option and make Hamels a free agent, #Rangers will pay his $6M buyout. But goal is to keep him.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Nov 2, 2018 8:34:01 GMT -5
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ematz1423
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Post by ematz1423 on Nov 2, 2018 8:58:20 GMT -5
Ken Rosenthal Verified account @ken_Rosenthal #Cubs might make a trade to clear salary before picking up Hamels’ $20M option, sources tell The Athletic. At this point, a long-term deal for Hamels is unlikely. If Cubs decline option and make Hamels a free agent, #Rangers will pay his $6M buyout. But goal is to keep him. I had thought the Cubs would be a likely suitor for Bryce Harper but this makes it sound like they are at the upper limits of their desired payroll.
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Post by James Dunne on Nov 2, 2018 9:02:21 GMT -5
Ken Rosenthal Verified account @ken_Rosenthal #Cubs might make a trade to clear salary before picking up Hamels’ $20M option, sources tell The Athletic. At this point, a long-term deal for Hamels is unlikely. If Cubs decline option and make Hamels a free agent, #Rangers will pay his $6M buyout. But goal is to keep him. I had thought the Cubs would be a likely suitor for Bryce Harper but this makes it sound like they are at the upper limits of their desired payroll. I read it as the opposite: they want to make sure there's enough room to bring in Harper or another big signing, and they aren't going to exercise Hamels' option if he's going to handicap those chances. But they'd like to do both so they're looking to clear other money before committing to Hamels. EDIT: Apparently they have exercised the option and dealt Drew Smyly and his $7M contract for 2019 to the Rangers. (Crasnick corrected the spelling of Smyly in his follow-up tweet). In related news, Drew Smyly was on the Cubs? And has a $7M contract for 2019? ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ EDIT2: "Take this payroll off our hands our we're sticking you with the bill for Hamels' buyout" is quite a trade negotiation.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Nov 2, 2018 10:39:34 GMT -5
In related news, Drew Smyly was on the Cubs? And has a $7M contract for 2019? ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ Yeah, I could not have told you either of those things. Seems like all upside for the Rangers, which they need, so great pickup for them. On the Cubs end... eh? Hamels did pitch well once they acquired him, but at a glance I don't see any super compelling reason to think that will continue in his age 35 season. He threw a bunch more four-seamers once he went over the Cubs, which is kind of the opposite of what you'd expect for a resurgent old pitcher. But it's still a low 90s fastball that doesn't seem like it has particularly interesting movement? I don't really get it, but I suppose they have a better idea of how Smyly is recovering from his TJ than the rest of us do.
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Post by James Dunne on Nov 2, 2018 10:47:00 GMT -5
I think the durability stuff we've been discussing for Porcello applies to Hamels as well. There's regression likely, but he eats so many innings that he really limits the downside, and there's upside as well. His FIP the last two years is 4.54, which isn't great obviously. But even if his recent FIP-beating tendencies are fluky, a 4.50 RA in 180 innings is pretty valuable anyway. And since it's only one year, the risk is low. I guess one difference between the Cubs and Red Sox situations is that with Lester/Hendricks/Quintana all being pretty durable, you might want to pair them with a less-costly high-risk/high-reward option, but I dunno. I think it's a smart play to exercise the option.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Nov 2, 2018 11:05:46 GMT -5
I think the durability stuff we've been discussing for Porcello applies to Hamels as well. There's regression likely, but he eats so many innings that he really limits the downside, and there's upside as well. His FIP the last two years is 4.54, which isn't great obviously. But even if his recent FIP-beating tendencies are fluky, a 4.50 RA in 180 innings is pretty valuable anyway. And since it's only one year, the risk is low. I guess one difference between the Cubs and Red Sox situations is that with Lester/Hendricks/Quintana all being pretty durable, you might want to pair them with a less-costly high-risk/high-reward option, but I dunno. I think it's a smart play to exercise the option. Yeah I don't think it's an obviously bad move, just a little eyebrow-raising to me. The Lester/Hendricks/Quintana/Hamels/Darvish group they have now is such a weird mix of reliability and collapse potential.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Nov 2, 2018 11:06:38 GMT -5
I had thought the Cubs would be a likely suitor for Bryce Harper but this makes it sound like they are at the upper limits of their desired payroll. I read it as the opposite: they want to make sure there's enough room to bring in Harper or another big signing, and they aren't going to exercise Hamels' option if he's going to handicap those chances. But they'd like to do both so they're looking to clear other money before committing to Hamels. EDIT: Apparently they have exercised the option and dealt Drew Smyly and his $7M contract for 2019 to the Rangers. (Crasnick corrected the spelling of Smyly in his follow-up tweet). In related news, Drew Smyly was on the Cubs? And has a $7M contract for 2019? ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ EDIT2: "Take this payroll off our hands our we're sticking you with the bill for Hamels' buyout" is quite a trade negotiation. I had about the same take regarding Harper as you but this Olney tweet is interesting: Buster Olney Verified account @buster_ESPN Other teams' read on the Cubs' situation this winter: They have very little payroll flexibility, and will have to spend very carefully to affect upgrades for the 2019 season. The days of having a cheap core of young players are over for the front office.
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Post by jimed14 on Nov 2, 2018 11:12:03 GMT -5
I think the durability stuff we've been discussing for Porcello applies to Hamels as well. There's regression likely, but he eats so many innings that he really limits the downside, and there's upside as well. His FIP the last two years is 4.54, which isn't great obviously. But even if his recent FIP-beating tendencies are fluky, a 4.50 RA in 180 innings is pretty valuable anyway. And since it's only one year, the risk is low. I guess one difference between the Cubs and Red Sox situations is that with Lester/Hendricks/Quintana all being pretty durable, you might want to pair them with a less-costly high-risk/high-reward option, but I dunno. I think it's a smart play to exercise the option. It seems like most pitchers for the Cubs beat their FIP.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Nov 2, 2018 12:34:08 GMT -5
I think the durability stuff we've been discussing for Porcello applies to Hamels as well. There's regression likely, but he eats so many innings that he really limits the downside, and there's upside as well. His FIP the last two years is 4.54, which isn't great obviously. But even if his recent FIP-beating tendencies are fluky, a 4.50 RA in 180 innings is pretty valuable anyway. And since it's only one year, the risk is low. I guess one difference between the Cubs and Red Sox situations is that with Lester/Hendricks/Quintana all being pretty durable, you might want to pair them with a less-costly high-risk/high-reward option, but I dunno. I think it's a smart play to exercise the option. It seems like most pitchers for the Cubs beat their FIP. Please, this is a family site.
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Post by jimed14 on Nov 2, 2018 14:34:04 GMT -5
edit - and now it's done.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Nov 2, 2018 18:43:52 GMT -5
I knew Kershaw was never leaving.
Now that brings the starting pitching market to 4 or 5 arms in Happ, Corbin, Khechul, Morton, Eovaldi.
Hopefully the Sox pull away with Eovaldi.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Nov 2, 2018 21:08:55 GMT -5
I knew Kershaw was never leaving. Now that brings the starting pitching market to 4 or 5 arms in Happ, Corbin, Khechul, Morton, Eovaldi. Hopefully the Sox pull away with Eovaldi. I'm actually kind of surprised it wasn't a longer deal. A large number of years at a relatively lower AAV that effectively buys out his career would seem to make a lot of sense for both sides. If there's one guy in baseball I just can't imagine in another uniform, it's Kershaw.
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Post by orion09 on Nov 3, 2018 3:24:49 GMT -5
MLBTR is predicting 14Y/$420M for Harper and 13Y/$390M for Machado.
These numbers seem insane to me - especially for Harper. Yes, he's very young for a free agent. Yes, he's very good. Yes, he's a lot of fun to watch.
But his top 3 BR comps are Josh Donaldson, Richard Hidalgo, and Yoenis Cespedes. He's averaged 3.9 BWAR and 4.4 FWAR over his career.
He's very good, not one of the top 5 players in the game. 10Y/$300M I can see, though I would not want it for my team. But 14 years at $30M AAV???
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Nov 3, 2018 6:04:57 GMT -5
MLBTR is predicting 14Y/$420M for Harper and 13Y/$390M for Machado. These numbers seem insane to me - especially for Harper. Yes, he's very young for a free agent. Yes, he's very good. Yes, he's a lot of fun to watch. But his top 3 BR comps are Josh Donaldson, Richard Hidalgo, and Yoenis Cespedes. He's averaged 3.9 BWAR and 4.4 FWAR over his career. He's very good, not one of the top 5 players in the game. 10Y/$300M I can see, though I would not want it for my team. But 14 years at $30M AAV??? We were having this discussion on the Max Scherzer trade thread. The word overrated was used a lot. He's about to be immensly overpaid for what he is. Hence why I used that word.
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Post by bluechip on Nov 3, 2018 17:33:29 GMT -5
MLBTR is predicting 14Y/$420M for Harper and 13Y/$390M for Machado. These numbers seem insane to me - especially for Harper. Yes, he's very young for a free agent. Yes, he's very good. Yes, he's a lot of fun to watch. But his top 3 BR comps are Josh Donaldson, Richard Hidalgo, and Yoenis Cespedes. He's averaged 3.9 BWAR and 4.4 FWAR over his career. He's very good, not one of the top 5 players in the game. 10Y/$300M I can see, though I would not want it for my team. But 14 years at $30M AAV??? We were having this discussion on the Max Scherzer trade thread. The word overrated was used a lot. He's about to be immensly overpaid for what he is. Hence why I used that word. He will be underpaid for the first few years of that contract. Then immensely overpaid at the end. If you got Pujols from 26 to 40, you’d have over 62.3 bWAR. 53.8 was in the first seven years.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Nov 3, 2018 20:23:48 GMT -5
Just plain sad.
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Post by orion09 on Nov 4, 2018 3:04:14 GMT -5
We were having this discussion on the Max Scherzer trade thread. The word overrated was used a lot. He's about to be immensly overpaid for what he is. Hence why I used that word. He will be underpaid for the first few years of that contract. Then immensely overpaid at the end. If you got Pujols from 26 to 40, you’d have over 62.3 bWAR. 53.8 was in the first seven years. Not that you're equating Harper with Pujols (I get the point you're trying to make about frontloaded value) - Harper is NOT Pujols. Just for fun's sake: BWAR | Pujols | Harper | Machado | Age 21 | 6.6 | 1.1 | 2.3 | Age 22 | 5.5 | 10.0 | 7.1 | Age 23 | 8.7 | 1.5 | 6.9 | Age 24 | 8.5 | 4.7 | 3.4 | Age 25 | 8.4 | 1.3 | 5.7 | Total | 37.7 | 18.6 | 25.4 |
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