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2018-19 Non-Red Sox Offseason Thread
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Post by hammerhead on Nov 13, 2018 10:54:09 GMT -5
With the Dodgers appearing to lose Grandal. Any chance the sox can pry Urias loose with a Swihart plus Mata deal? Or something similar? It seems like LA undervalues Urias
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Post by James Dunne on Nov 13, 2018 11:10:33 GMT -5
With the Dodgers appearing to lose Grandal. Any chance the sox can pry Urias loose with a Swihart plus Mata deal? Or something similar? It seems like LA undervalues Urias They just put him on the postseason roster despite the fact he basically hadn't pitched all year so I really have no idea what makes you think they undervalue him. And if they DID decide to trade him, you think they couldn't get a better deal than that? I mean, Justus Sheffield for Urias straight up would be a no-brainer for the Yankees and would blow Swihart/Mata out of the water.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Nov 13, 2018 11:23:05 GMT -5
They were 5 1/2 games out of first place at the trading deadline. Bryce Harper hit .298/.433/.529 from August 1 on. For that to happen and everything else not come together sucks, but the lesson isn't "they should've traded all of their players." The lesson is that baseball is cruel. EDIT: And Washington finished with a Pythag of 90-72. Selling at that point would've been unconscionable. It just didn't work out. If they kept Harper in hopes of competing, then that's fully justifiable. If they kept him around in hopes that it would provide them some sort of discount or inside track to resigning him, then I would think that's a little misguided. It should be noted that it's been reported that the Nats management had a trade in place with the Astros at the deadline but that trade was nixed by the Nats ownership.
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Post by hammerhead on Nov 13, 2018 11:39:45 GMT -5
With the Dodgers appearing to lose Grandal. Any chance the sox can pry Urias loose with a Swihart plus Mata deal? Or something similar? It seems like LA undervalues Urias They just put him on the postseason roster despite the fact he basically hadn't pitched all year so I really have no idea what makes you think they undervalue him. And if they DID decide to trade him, you think they couldn't get a better deal than that? I mean, Justus Sheffield for Urias straight up would be a no-brainer for the Yankees and would blow Swihart/Mata out of the water. I base my opinion of LA undervaluing Urias on his playoff usage. Pitchers like Madsen and Wood were clearly ahead of Urias in the bullpen pecking order even though Urias demonstrated better stuff. Its been 3 years since his mesmerizing debut as a 19year old,he's faced injuries. I know he still has a ton of value, but it has dropped. I also think Swihart is exactly the kind of player that would help LA. I could see him hitting 20+ doubles in Chavez. Maybe the second piece isn't Mata maybe its Groome or Chavis, but I think its a feasible deal that adds a cost controlled Arm.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Nov 13, 2018 11:46:11 GMT -5
They just put him on the postseason roster despite the fact he basically hadn't pitched all year so I really have no idea what makes you think they undervalue him. And if they DID decide to trade him, you think they couldn't get a better deal than that? I mean, Justus Sheffield for Urias straight up would be a no-brainer for the Yankees and would blow Swihart/Mata out of the water. I base my opinion of LA undervaluing Urias on his playoff usage. Pitchers like Madsen and Wood were clearly ahead of Urias in the bullpen pecking order even though Urias demonstrated better stuff. Its been 3 years since his mesmerizing debut as a 19year old,he's faced injuries. I know he still has a ton of value, but it has dropped. I also think Swihart is exactly the kind of player that would help LA. I could see him hitting 20+ doubles in Chavez. Maybe the second piece isn't Mata maybe its Groome or Chavis, but I think its a feasible deal that adds a cost controlled Arm. Swihart and any of our prospects is not a ton of return.
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Post by jimed14 on Nov 13, 2018 11:51:10 GMT -5
They just put him on the postseason roster despite the fact he basically hadn't pitched all year so I really have no idea what makes you think they undervalue him. And if they DID decide to trade him, you think they couldn't get a better deal than that? I mean, Justus Sheffield for Urias straight up would be a no-brainer for the Yankees and would blow Swihart/Mata out of the water. I base my opinion of LA undervaluing Urias on his playoff usage. Pitchers like Madsen and Wood were clearly ahead of Urias in the bullpen pecking order even though Urias demonstrated better stuff. Its been 3 years since his mesmerizing debut as a 19year old,he's faced injuries. I know he still has a ton of value, but it has dropped. I also think Swihart is exactly the kind of player that would help LA. I could see him hitting 20+ doubles in Chavez. Maybe the second piece isn't Mata maybe its Groome or Chavis, but I think its a feasible deal that adds a cost controlled Arm. I'd be livid if I were a Dodgers fan and they made a trade anywhere close to that bad. They have no reason to trade Urias and Swihart doesn't have much trade value because of how little he has played. Just because they didn't pitch Urias in the playoffs in higher leverage doesn't mean anything about what they feel about him long term. He's still only 22. They probably held him out of higher leverage in the playoffs because he threw a total of 15 2/3 innings last season and was closer to spring training shape than ready for the playoffs. If they wanted to trade for a catcher, they'd be much more likely to trade Urias for Realmuto straight up, because that's way closer to his value. I highly doubt he's going anywhere though.
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Post by James Dunne on Nov 13, 2018 12:05:05 GMT -5
Urias pitched 6 1/3 innings in the playoffs after throwing four - as in 4 - in the regular season.
Honest question - how many teams in baseball right now that wouldn't trade their starting catcher for Urias? I mean San Francisco, St. Louis, and Kansas City all have a guy who is kind of an institution, so they're probably not going to get into that. Is there someone I'm forgetting? But, I think everyone else would straight up trade their catcher for Urias and then figure it out. Swihart isn't moving the needle here.
EDIT: Jimed - If the Dodgers were indeed inclined to move him, Urias for Realmuto as the key parts of some megadeal sounds like it could be an actual fit.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Nov 13, 2018 12:14:56 GMT -5
Urias is still one most talented young arms in baseball.
Swihart is viewed as a backup utility catcher at best right now.
You can get Urias if you trade Benintendi. That is where the starting asking price stands most likely.
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Post by James Dunne on Nov 13, 2018 14:58:47 GMT -5
A "Sod Poodle" is apparently a regional nickname for a Prairie Dog and I am in love with it. Say "Sod Poodle" without smiling. Do it! See, you can't.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Nov 13, 2018 22:16:56 GMT -5
Sorry to interrupt but this is funny and shows that umpires have been scorned for decades.
John Thorn @thorn_john
Truman was a lefty, and he threw like a ballplayer. And he was funny: “I couldn’t see well enough to play when I was a boy, so they gave me a special job — they made me an umpire.”
By the way, if you are into baseball history and have twitter, John Thorn is a great follow. If you go to his account, you will probably be there for hours.
One I remember was a newspaper article from the 40's or 50's that proposed "launch angle" and pretty much came up with the same data as the perfect angle to strive for. iirc, it said 28 degrees.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Nov 14, 2018 0:29:43 GMT -5
Just a reminder Urias is coming off major shoulder surgery, so he carries some big risk.
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Post by rivenp on Nov 14, 2018 1:58:25 GMT -5
They just put him on the postseason roster despite the fact he basically hadn't pitched all year so I really have no idea what makes you think they undervalue him. And if they DID decide to trade him, you think they couldn't get a better deal than that? I mean, Justus Sheffield for Urias straight up would be a no-brainer for the Yankees and would blow Swihart/Mata out of the water. I base my opinion of LA undervaluing Urias on his playoff usage. Pitchers like Madsen and Wood were clearly ahead of Urias in the bullpen pecking order even though Urias demonstrated better stuff. Its been 3 years since his mesmerizing debut as a 19year old,he's faced injuries. I know he still has a ton of value, but it has dropped. I also think Swihart is exactly the kind of player that would help LA. I could see him hitting 20+ doubles in Chavez. Maybe the second piece isn't Mata maybe its Groome or Chavis, but I think its a feasible deal that adds a cost controlled Arm. his playoff usage wasn't a result of the dodgers undervaluing him...it was them being exceedingly careful with a prized possession returning from major surgery
swihart was closer to being put on waivers than being the centerpiece in a trade for urias =).
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Nov 14, 2018 2:03:12 GMT -5
Like rats abandoning a sinking ship.
Mark Feinsand Verified account @feinsand
If Mike Elias does indeed land the Orioles GM job as @bnightengale is reporting, it is expected that Sig Mejdal would join Elias in Baltimore. Mejdal, who was a special assistant to GM Jeff Luhnow and was one of Houston's key analysts, left the Astros earlier this month.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Nov 14, 2018 11:33:57 GMT -5
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Nov 14, 2018 11:36:40 GMT -5
This is the main reason why Boras almost always pushes his clients to free agency to test out the market.
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Post by incandenza on Nov 14, 2018 11:46:13 GMT -5
I actually think this demonstrates that early deals are a good idea for players. Because of the decreasing marginal utility of money, I'd rather take, say, $32 million at 100% certainty (what Julio Teheran got, more or less) than $60 million at 90% certainty (what he would've gotten. I mean, how do you even spend $30 million in a lifetime? It's enough! That is enough money to have!
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Post by jimed14 on Nov 14, 2018 11:50:40 GMT -5
I actually think this demonstrates that early deals are a good idea for players. Because of the decreasing marginal utility of money, I'd rather take, say, $32 million at 100% certainty (what Julio Teheran got, more or less) than $60 million at 90% certainty (what he would've gotten. I mean, how do you even spend $30 million in a lifetime? It's enough! That is enough money to have! I'd guess Grady Sizemore is glad he signed an extension when he was one of the best players in the majors. He ended up getting paid less than $1 million per career WAR but it could have been even less than that.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Nov 14, 2018 12:05:04 GMT -5
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Post by jimed14 on Nov 14, 2018 12:23:42 GMT -5
Those would be so much more useful and easy to implement in a smaller country like Japan. The US is so damn big and spread out that it would be difficult. This is kind of what I mean by that: I live in Research Triangle Park (Raleigh/Durham/Chapel Hill) in NC, and just about everyone lives and works in some suburban area, making public transportation really difficult and it's holding us back in growth. It's probably the main reason why we lost out on the next Amazon HQ. It's way easier if everyone works in one place (like downtown) because that's where the public transportation hubs would be. But when everywhere is the destination, that's when planning becomes so much more difficult. What they would have to do to have any real public transportation at all, is have park and rides, but with a million shuttle buses at the destination since most workplaces here are gigantic campuses that aren't walking friendly. Where I work now, once you enter the gates, it's a 2 mile drive to get to the building I work in for example. When I lived and worked in Philadelphia, I had a 4 block walk after I was done taking either the bus, subway or train. But when I lived in Philadelphia and worked in the suburbs, I had no choice but to drive because there's no way to get from the bus stop to the campus I worked on. And for decades, every city in the country focused on developing the suburbs while ignoring the inner cities. It seems that trend has reversed in recent years, but there's a really long way to go to plan effective public transportation.
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Post by iakovos11 on Nov 14, 2018 12:32:21 GMT -5
Those would be so much more useful and easy to implement in a smaller country like Japan. The US is so damn big and spread out that it would be difficult. This is kind of what I mean by that: I live in Research Triangle Park (Raleigh/Durham/Chapel Hill) in NC, and just about everyone lives and works in some suburban area, making public transportation really difficult and it's holding us back in growth. It's probably the main reason why we lost out on the next Amazon HQ. It's way easier if everyone works in one place (like downtown) because that's where the public transportation hubs would be. But when everywhere is the destination, that's when planning becomes so much more difficult. What they would have to do to have any real public transportation at all, is have park and rides, but with a million shuttle buses at the destination since most workplaces here are gigantic campuses that aren't walking friendly. Where I work now, once you enter the gates, it's a 2 mile drive to get to the building I work in for example. When I lived and worked in Philadelphia, I had a 4 block walk after I was done taking either the bus, subway or train. But when I lived in Philadelphia and worked in the suburbs, I had no choice but to drive because there's no way to get from the bus stop to the campus I worked on. And for decades, every city in the country focused on developing the suburbs while ignoring the inner cities. It seems that trend has reversed in recent years, but there's a really long way to go to plan effective public transportation. www.bbc.com/news/business-45786690www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/oct/23/owning-car-thing-of-the-past-cities-utopian-vision
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Nov 14, 2018 12:32:39 GMT -5
I actually think this demonstrates that early deals are a good idea for players. Because of the decreasing marginal utility of money, I'd rather take, say, $32 million at 100% certainty (what Julio Teheran got, more or less) than $60 million at 90% certainty (what he would've gotten. I mean, how do you even spend $30 million in a lifetime? It's enough! That is enough money to have! Spoken like a normal person, yet its rather easy to spend 30 million today. I mean I look at it like even low end 15 million after taxes, at 5% interest is like 750,000 a year and that's low for that amount of money. Yet you can buy houses for that amount, they have cars that cost millions, one private jet costs that much. These guys make bad investments after bad investments rather than investing in lower risk things like CDs and goverment bonds, heck even gold. It's the sports culture, everyone has so much money they show off and it gets crazy. Spending millions on jewerly to one up a a teammate. Heck take Brown from the Steelers he goes all out to make an entrace to spring training every year. Last year it was renting a massive helicopter to make his entrance. The sports culture and frankly the culture of being "rich" in this Country is crazy. Most act like the money will never stop and when it does they go broke.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Nov 14, 2018 12:40:01 GMT -5
Like rats abandoning a sinking ship. Mark Feinsand Verified account @feinsand If Mike Elias does indeed land the Orioles GM job as @bnightengale is reporting, it is expected that Sig Mejdal would join Elias in Baltimore. Mejdal, who was a special assistant to GM Jeff Luhnow and was one of Houston's key analysts, left the Astros earlier this month. keithlaw Verified account @keithlaw I’ve heard Mejdal will indeed come join Elias to build an R&D department in Baltimore.
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Post by jimed14 on Nov 14, 2018 12:41:16 GMT -5
Those would be so much more useful and easy to implement in a smaller country like Japan. The US is so damn big and spread out that it would be difficult. This is kind of what I mean by that: I live in Research Triangle Park (Raleigh/Durham/Chapel Hill) in NC, and just about everyone lives and works in some suburban area, making public transportation really difficult and it's holding us back in growth. It's probably the main reason why we lost out on the next Amazon HQ. It's way easier if everyone works in one place (like downtown) because that's where the public transportation hubs would be. But when everywhere is the destination, that's when planning becomes so much more difficult. What they would have to do to have any real public transportation at all, is have park and rides, but with a million shuttle buses at the destination since most workplaces here are gigantic campuses that aren't walking friendly. Where I work now, once you enter the gates, it's a 2 mile drive to get to the building I work in for example. When I lived and worked in Philadelphia, I had a 4 block walk after I was done taking either the bus, subway or train. But when I lived in Philadelphia and worked in the suburbs, I had no choice but to drive because there's no way to get from the bus stop to the campus I worked on. And for decades, every city in the country focused on developing the suburbs while ignoring the inner cities. It seems that trend has reversed in recent years, but there's a really long way to go to plan effective public transportation. www.bbc.com/news/business-45786690www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/oct/23/owning-car-thing-of-the-past-cities-utopian-visionYeah, I'm all for that. My gf and I survive with one car and I'd love for that to be zero. Seems like such a giant waste of money since we both work pretty close to where we live. We have 18000 miles on a 4 year old car, so I've really resisted getting a 2nd one since we drive so little. I take Uber to get to work when necessary.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Nov 14, 2018 12:58:25 GMT -5
Those would be so much more useful and easy to implement in a smaller country like Japan. The US is so damn big and spread out that it would be difficult. This is kind of what I mean by that: I live in Research Triangle Park (Raleigh/Durham/Chapel Hill) in NC, and just about everyone lives and works in some suburban area, making public transportation really difficult and it's holding us back in growth. It's probably the main reason why we lost out on the next Amazon HQ. It's way easier if everyone works in one place (like downtown) because that's where the public transportation hubs would be. But when everywhere is the destination, that's when planning becomes so much more difficult. What they would have to do to have any real public transportation at all, is have park and rides, but with a million shuttle buses at the destination since most workplaces here are gigantic campuses that aren't walking friendly. Where I work now, once you enter the gates, it's a 2 mile drive to get to the building I work in for example. When I lived and worked in Philadelphia, I had a 4 block walk after I was done taking either the bus, subway or train. But when I lived in Philadelphia and worked in the suburbs, I had no choice but to drive because there's no way to get from the bus stop to the campus I worked on. And for decades, every city in the country focused on developing the suburbs while ignoring the inner cities. It seems that trend has reversed in recent years, but there's a really long way to go to plan effective public transportation. www.bbc.com/news/business-45786690www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/oct/23/owning-car-thing-of-the-past-cities-utopian-visionThe bullet trains would only run large city to large city which is what Japan does then from those cities, they have transportation hubs. They aren't intended to be multi stop local services. What would be perfect in the USA would be an east coast train and a west coast train, at minimum. In the Philippines which has island problems the initial projects are a slower (120 MPH) train around the island of Mindanao connecting about 15 cities and a faster one (150 MPH) connecting 3 cities, Manila, New Clark City (which isn't built yet but is a planned major city) and Subic Bay which is a seaport transportation hub. Picture New York with no subways and you have Manila Metro Manila is the world's 8th largest population, New York 6th with 22 million compared to 23 million, close. Because of the lack of subways, Manila proper is again 8th but New York 28th, it's a lot more densely packed. What they are doing in Manila is making subways to a transportation hub north of the city. This is important here because the government will move from Manila to New Clark City starting in late 2019. Phase 1 of New Clark is a sports complex and the government offices and housing. It has to be done by next September because they are hosting the Asia games. They are two and a half months ahead of planned schedule so far.
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Post by incandenza on Nov 14, 2018 14:36:09 GMT -5
I actually think this demonstrates that early deals are a good idea for players. Because of the decreasing marginal utility of money, I'd rather take, say, $32 million at 100% certainty (what Julio Teheran got, more or less) than $60 million at 90% certainty (what he would've gotten. I mean, how do you even spend $30 million in a lifetime? It's enough! That is enough money to have! Spoken like a normal person, yet its rather easy to spend 30 million today. I mean I look at it like even low end 15 million after taxes, at 5% interest is like 750,000 a year and that's low for that amount of money. Yet you can buy houses for that amount, they have cars that cost millions, one private jet costs that much. These guys make bad investments after bad investments rather than investing in lower risk things like CDs and goverment bonds, heck even gold. It's the sports culture, everyone has so much money they show off and it gets crazy. Spending millions on jewerly to one up a a teammate. Heck take Brown from the Steelers he goes all out to make an entrace to spring training every year. Last year it was renting a massive helicopter to make his entrance. The sports culture and frankly the culture of being "rich" in this Country is crazy. Most act like the money will never stop and when it does they go broke. Baseball players wearing diamond necklaces or whatever while they're playing baseball is so freaking absurd, and really needs to be mocked a lot more often.
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