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2018-19 Non-Red Sox Offseason Thread
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Nov 19, 2018 21:18:45 GMT -5
Eduardo is Paxton. You have like a couple guys like that in Wright, Eduardo, Sale, and maybe Eovaldi soon. Ohh and he's 30, so his decline is just beginning. Like I mentioned before, I'm just glad this wasn't Kluber or Bauer. Pedro, I really don't agree with your basic point. No, they likely don't have the talent to secure Kluber, Bauer, or DeGrom unless they deal either Andujar or Torres which they don't want to do. Doesn't stop them from signing Corbin, which they have a real legit shot to do, especially since Paxton doesn't cost them much financially. So say they get Corbin, then they run out a front 5 of Severino, Tanaka, Corbin, Paxton, and Sabathia. So basically in that scenario Paxton is replacing Gray and Lynn. That's an upgrade any way you look at it. Even at 150 innings. Who's to say that those innings all come before October anyways? They could come afterwards as a fresh pitcher. The Yankees got better today. Sheffield might find it eventually, but despite his stuff, he's got issues with controls and it's not crazy to think that he won't be as good as Paxton, who is a pretty good pitcher. That's if he can even give them 150. Before last year his career high was 136, before that was 121. Did Clint Frazier lose all his trade value?
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Nov 19, 2018 21:21:15 GMT -5
Jon Morosi Verified account @jonmorosi
Source: #Astros’ refusal to include Forrest Whitley in their offer for James Paxton precipitated #Mariners decision to trade Paxton to #Yankees. @mlbnetwork @mlb
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Nov 19, 2018 21:21:21 GMT -5
Eduardo is Paxton. You have like a couple guys like that in Wright, Eduardo, Sale, and maybe Eovaldi soon. Ohh and he's 30, so his decline is just beginning. Like I mentioned before, I'm just glad this wasn't Kluber or Bauer. ERod has never had a year as good as Paxton's last 3. Eduardo just had a higher bWAR season at the age of 25 in 2018.
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Post by jimed14 on Nov 19, 2018 21:23:08 GMT -5
ERod has never had a year as good as Paxton's last 3. Eduardo just had a higher bWAR season at the age of 25 in 2018. bWAR is awful for pitchers as I've said since way before this one example. But whatever, no use in arguing with the man who knows everything better than everyone.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Nov 19, 2018 21:26:18 GMT -5
Eduardo just had a higher bWAR season at the age of 25 in 2018. bWAR is awful for pitchers as I've said since way before this one example. But whatever, no use in arguing with the man who knows everything better than everyone. I have never said any of this.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Nov 19, 2018 21:43:19 GMT -5
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Nov 19, 2018 22:19:56 GMT -5
Eduardo just had a higher bWAR season at the age of 25 in 2018. bWAR is awful for pitchers as I've said since way before this one example. But whatever, no use in arguing with the man who knows everything better than everyone. So confused because a week ago you said you liked bwar better for pitchers, now its awful.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Nov 20, 2018 4:23:21 GMT -5
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Post by James Dunne on Nov 20, 2018 8:04:55 GMT -5
Jon Morosi Verified account @jonmorosi Source: #Astros’ refusal to include Forrest Whitley in their offer for James Paxton precipitated #Mariners decision to trade Paxton to #Yankees. @mlbnetwork @mlb From the "it can't hurt to ask" department of general managing. See, if the Mariners think Sheffield is a Whitley-level prospect, then this is a good move on their part. The more I think about this trade, the more I like it from the Mariners standpoint. It reminds me a little stylistically bit of the Kimbrel or Sale trades, in that I think the top pieces moving were absolutely sensible, but I think getting two decent prospects on top of a key guy really makes it a great get for them. Swanson and Thompson-Williams are kind of the Logan Allen and Carlos Asuaje, not necessarily in terms of the type of player they are, but in terms of relative value and very decent gets on the back end of a deal that ALSO netted a potential impact player. They can do really well here even if Sheffield ends up being a reliever like his detractors think. From the Yankees standpoint, like the Red Sox in 2016, that's the advantage of dealing from depth. Where would Swanson rank on the Red Sox... like 7th or so? It's just easier for the Yankees to trade a guy like that right now. Another aspect of the deal: the Yankees also have a bit of a 40-man crunch. Swanson was going to need to be added today. Maybe they're able to keep a James Reeves or someone like that because of the two spots they opened up. (EDIT: Technically one spot opened up, plus one obvious add that won't need to be made. But you all know what I meant, you pedants!) .... Of course this deal is a huge win for the Yankees if the Eagle is joining Paxton.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Nov 20, 2018 8:13:50 GMT -5
Jon Morosi Verified account @jonmorosi Source: #Astros’ refusal to include Forrest Whitley in their offer for James Paxton precipitated #Mariners decision to trade Paxton to #Yankees. @mlbnetwork @mlb From the "it can't hurt to ask" department of general managing. See, if the Mariners think Sheffield is a Whitley-level prospect, then this is a good move on their part. The more I think about this trade, the more I like it from the Mariners standpoint. It reminds me a little stylistically bit of the Kimbrel or Sale trades, in that I think the top pieces moving were absolutely sensible, but I think getting two decent prospects on top of a key guy really makes it a great get for them. Swanson and Thompson-Williams are kind of the Logan Allen and Carlos Asuaje, not necessarily in terms of the type of player they are, but in terms of relative value and very decent gets on the back end of a deal that ALSO netted a potential impact player. .... Of course this analysis changes if the Eagle is joining Paxton. Agree with the general assessment but two comments. If they would have gone with Whitley, they likely view Sheffield as the second choice. I personally would have traded Asuaje and Allen (at the time) for for Swanson and Thompson-Williams in a heart beat. Forgot about the eagle being Paxton, a great moment this season.If you think about it, it's funny that a bald eagle would chose a Canadian to go to.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Nov 20, 2018 8:37:29 GMT -5
Trying to equate what the Mariners got to Sox prospects, the closest I can come up with is Groome if he didn't have TJ and had a decent year and was still our clear #1, Houck and Duran.
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Post by rjp313jr on Nov 20, 2018 10:09:54 GMT -5
I actually think this demonstrates that early deals are a good idea for players. Because of the decreasing marginal utility of money, I'd rather take, say, $32 million at 100% certainty (what Julio Teheran got, more or less) than $60 million at 90% certainty (what he would've gotten. I mean, how do you even spend $30 million in a lifetime? It's enough! That is enough money to have! How much would the agent take off the top of the 30M...$5 MIL?...Then you have your accountant, atty, therapists, ect... I can see how they're left with a LOT less than what we perceive. A lot of these guys have to make that support them their entire lives. Are you kidding me? Have you seen what an MLB pension is for a player? They can comfortably live off their annual pension. And you barely need any service time for a quality pension.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Nov 20, 2018 10:17:19 GMT -5
Honestly if they’re smart they still go sign a pitcher. I like this trade though. Sheffield is no sure thing and the Yankees don’t need Paxton to throw 100 innings, they need him to shut us down in October. Paxton isn’t Sonny Gray, his stuff will play anywhere. I think they get Corbin for sure and then probably another couple premium pitchers after that. Everyone is talking about Harper and Machado but it seems like it makes more sense for them to just roll with the young hitter core they already have in place and concentrate their financial resources on building pitching depth. I mean, if you're the Yankees, do you want Harper/Machado for 10y/$400m, or do you want Corbin and Morton AND Miller for maybe $45m combined a year, with half of that coming off the books in two years?
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Nov 20, 2018 10:20:58 GMT -5
He might very well not even give the Yankees 200 IP in his 2 years remaining. Saying that as long as he's dominate in October they can live with 100 IP is being a bit hopeful. It's not like you can pick and choose when he gives you a 100 IP. He could be very good for the first 4 months of the season and then get shut down. Did we not just watch the Red Sox do exactly this with Chris Sale? Not that it was necessarily 100% effective, but I promise you, the Yankees are not just going to passively hope that Paxton happens to be healthy in October. They'll do everything they can to engineer that outcome.
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Post by James Dunne on Nov 20, 2018 10:25:42 GMT -5
How much would the agent take off the top of the 30M...$5 MIL?...Then you have your accountant, atty, therapists, ect... I can see how they're left with a LOT less than what we perceive. A lot of these guys have to make that support them their entire lives. Are you kidding me? Have you seen what an MLB pension is for a player? They can comfortably live off their annual pension. And you barely need any service time for a quality pension. A player needs 10 years of service time to fully vest. And if they start drawing at age 45, it's $68K annually - which is a very nice pension, but hardly comfortable in most major metros, especially if they have other physical issues that prevent them from otherwise working. If they can wait until 62 to start drawing, it's much better (I think around $225K annually), but in that case the player has to be financially well off enough to get to 62. Now the other side of the argument, that a player who gets a $30M deal should be able to save enough of that responsibly to get to or near 62 is a reasonable one-- but the idea that short-term players can live off their pension forever isn't correct. I don't know Daniel Nava's financial background, for instance, but chances are (unless he has family money or is an investment whiz) that guy is going to need a job. And so we're clear, I'm not really arguing that the pension should be higher or whatever. Just pushing back that the idea that just getting a short-to-medium run in baseball sets these guys for life.
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Post by rjp313jr on Nov 20, 2018 10:26:23 GMT -5
The Paxton trade is interesting; could go either way which is why it’s a pretty good trade for both teams. Paxton has 2 years of control, which is good for the Yankees, but he’s already 30 so you likely traded Sheffield for 2 years of Paxton, unless you can sign him to a 4 year deal that buys out these last 2 arbitration years. The injuries are real. People brought up Sale as a Comp and it’s fair. Those are real problems as well, but Paxton isn’t as good as Sale. Paxton is an elite talent but he comes with a lot of question marks and he’s at a more advanced age. However, that’s why the cost was only one top prospect and not more.
I do think the Yankees dropped the ball on Cole and always did. He is an elite talent and is young. He fit their time line of the position players perfectly, but that’s done and over with. Can’t have any bearing on what they Yankees should do now. Maybe they learned from it.
I know he only has a year left but I’m just glad the Yankees didn’t deal for MadBum. He thrives off pressure and he’d be amazing in NY or cough Boston. Wonder what 1 year of him would cost. Erod plus...
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Post by rjp313jr on Nov 20, 2018 10:29:01 GMT -5
Are you kidding me? Have you seen what an MLB pension is for a player? They can comfortably live off their annual pension. And you barely need any service time for a quality pension. A player needs 10 years of service time to fully vest. And if they start drawing at age 45, it's $68K annually - which is a very nice pension, but hardly comfortable in most major metros, especially if they have other physical issues that prevent them from otherwise working. If they can wait until 62 to start drawing, it's much better (I think around $225K annually), but in that case the player has to be financially well off enough to get to 62. Now the other side of the argument, that a player who gets a $30M deal should be able to save enough of that responsibly to get to or near 62 is a reasonable one-- but the idea that short-term players can live off their pension forever isn't correct. I don't know Daniel Nava's financial background, for instance, but chances are (unless he has family money or is an investment whiz) that guy is going to need a job. And so we're clear, I'm not really arguing that the pension should be higher or whatever. Just pushing back that the idea that just getting a short-to-medium run in baseball sets these guys for life. If you sign a 30m deal you should have no issues getting to 62. Not sure how much this has changed with the new CB, but 43 days in the majors gets you a minimum of 34k a year once vested. That alone is much, but for just 43 days it’s not a bad deal. www.businessinsider.com/nfl-nhl-nba-mlb-retirement-pension-plans-lockout-2011-1
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Nov 20, 2018 10:31:55 GMT -5
The Yankees did get better. They were getting better this offseason whether we liked it or not. They have talent and plenty of money. I even admitted they got better with my first post. The question is did they target the right guy and did they trade the right prospect in a deal to get this guy? I don't think they did either. They traded their most major league ready starting pitching prospect for a guy who you can bank on not giving you 175 innings at least. Old world thinking, man. Hell, the Red Sox only had two pitchers who crossed the 175 IP last year, Price just barely got there with 176. I think their season went OK. Quality over quantity is the mantra for pitching in modern baseball.
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Post by jimed14 on Nov 20, 2018 10:33:30 GMT -5
Are you kidding me? Have you seen what an MLB pension is for a player? They can comfortably live off their annual pension. And you barely need any service time for a quality pension. A player needs 10 years of service time to fully vest. And if they start drawing at age 45, it's $68K annually - which is a very nice pension, but hardly comfortable in most major metros, especially if they have other physical issues that prevent them from otherwise working. If they can wait until 62 to start drawing, it's much better (I think around $225K annually), but in that case the player has to be financially well off enough to get to 62. Now the other side of the argument, that a player who gets a $30M deal should be able to save enough of that responsibly to get to or near 62 is a reasonable one-- but the idea that short-term players can live off their pension forever isn't correct. I don't know Daniel Nava's financial background, for instance, but chances are (unless he has family money or is an investment whiz) that guy is going to need a job. And so we're clear, I'm not really arguing that the pension should be higher or whatever. Just pushing back that the idea that just getting a short-to-medium run in baseball sets these guys for life. Free health insurance for life is worth a ton as well.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Nov 20, 2018 11:01:40 GMT -5
A player needs 10 years of service time to fully vest. And if they start drawing at age 45, it's $68K annually - which is a very nice pension, but hardly comfortable in most major metros, especially if they have other physical issues that prevent them from otherwise working. If they can wait until 62 to start drawing, it's much better (I think around $225K annually), but in that case the player has to be financially well off enough to get to 62. Now the other side of the argument, that a player who gets a $30M deal should be able to save enough of that responsibly to get to or near 62 is a reasonable one-- but the idea that short-term players can live off their pension forever isn't correct. I don't know Daniel Nava's financial background, for instance, but chances are (unless he has family money or is an investment whiz) that guy is going to need a job. And so we're clear, I'm not really arguing that the pension should be higher or whatever. Just pushing back that the idea that just getting a short-to-medium run in baseball sets these guys for life. Free health insurance for life is worth a ton as well. Agreed but it's for the player, not his wife and children. After leaving MLB, he would still have to deal with that himself.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Nov 20, 2018 11:57:05 GMT -5
If anyone really cares they can look it up themselves but I'm pretty sure the "free health care for life" thing isn't true. I believe it's lifetime eligibility to buy health insurance through the MLBPA, which is a good deal but not free.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Nov 20, 2018 12:31:42 GMT -5
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radiohix
Veteran
'At the end of the day, we bang. We bang. We're going to swing.' Alex Verdugo
Posts: 6,207
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Post by radiohix on Nov 20, 2018 13:15:49 GMT -5
Adrian Beltre is retiring and I feel sad today See you in Cooperstown you magnificient ball player!
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Nov 20, 2018 14:37:49 GMT -5
I just have to say it's amazing how posters look at trades other teams make differently than trades we make. The majority of posters love the Paxton trade for the Yankees. I can't help compare it to the Pomeranz trade, where most posters hated the trade. Yea Pomeranz was a little more risky, but the same injury issues are there and we got an extra 1/3 of a season. The Yankees gave up a higher rated pitching prospect, that is basically major league ready instead of a crazy raw guy years away. He was their top prospect. Plus a guy in Swanson who is also major league ready and could be a back of the rotation type starter. Heck even the third piece has a chance to be an everyday player, even if he's likely to be a 4th OF type. He's old for high A ball at 23, but .290 average, good speed, above average D in CF and 17 HRs in 90 games. That's at minimum an interesting player
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Post by James Dunne on Nov 20, 2018 14:43:31 GMT -5
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