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Post by jimed14 on Nov 16, 2018 17:34:23 GMT -5
If we look at the assets that were traded, excluding Shaw who was already up to the bigs, not many positives yet. Some of that is due to injuries - Kopech and Espinoza with TJ - but a quick inventory shows a lot of mundane numbers, so far at least. Kimbrel trade:Javy Guerra looks as if they sold high. He's done little since leaving the Sox system. Margot got off to a very slow start in 2018 and it didn't get much better in the second half. Asuaje is a useful piece, but really a utility guy. The prize here is probably Logan Allen. He made it to AAA at 21, the K rate is still over 9 per, and his WHIP is hovering around 1.0 - with only 110 hits in 148 innings! I have a feeling we'll be ruefully adding up his WAR as the years go on to total up the real cost. Sale Trade:Moncada led the league with 237 Ks which is just mind-boggling. He has some value, but it's not what we thought he'd be, certainly not what I thought he'd get to. There's still time, but he's got to find a way to reduce the K rate which sits at 1 out of every 3 at bats! Luis Alexander Basabe is coming along at 21. He struggled a little in AA after the promotion last year but overall he's making his way through the minor leagues. He's shown a bit of power, and he likes to try for steals, though he's not all that good at it right now. And he takes walks also. There's some promise here. Victor Diaz looks like a lottery ticket, at best. Can't make heads or tails out of last season's numbers. Even for a small sample size, they were horrific. Details from MiLB show a string of visits to the disabled list, so that's probably a strong hint that something's wrong. Pomeranz Trade:Espinoza on the shelf for two years now. This coming season will probably answer the question of what he has going forward. My takeaway: a lot of players which increases the likelihood of hitting on some gems. That's happened, but the overall evaluation seems to be positive.
I did see Kopech in AAA this year and he was lights out. If he is one of those guys who gains velocity after TJ, God help the rest of the league in 2 years. Gaining velocity after TJS is going to eventually be shown to be a complete myth. IMO, it only works out that way for pitchers who had a lot of room for strength improvement that comes with rehabbing, especially the shoulder. (and for HS pitchers, they probably always gain velocity since they're growing and getting stronger and rehabbing their arm with more strength work than they ever did before) But for most MLB pitchers these days, there is little room for improvement, especially for a guy who threw 105 once. If Kopech threw even harder, he's just going to get hurt faster.
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Post by humanbeingbean on Nov 16, 2018 18:11:04 GMT -5
What's the most amazing about these trades is that we kept ERod, Devers and Benintendi while giving up players who have yet to do anything much. I'm really glad that I don't have to suffer through Moncada's strike out struggles.Something to consider for everyone projecting Dalbec as an MLB player. His K rate was 37% this year and has gone up every year. Even in his prime, Adam Dunn hovered around 26%, which leads one to wonder if Dalbec can even make it in MLB, and if the time to deal him may be now while the hype is high. To be fair, Dunn was also completely worthless (or worse) in the field. Dalbec’s an asset at third.
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Post by jimed14 on Nov 16, 2018 18:12:45 GMT -5
What's the most amazing about these trades is that we kept ERod, Devers and Benintendi while giving up players who have yet to do anything much. I'm really glad that I don't have to suffer through Moncada's strike out struggles.Something to consider for everyone projecting Dalbec as an MLB player. His K rate was 37% this year and has gone up every year. Even in his prime, Adam Dunn hovered around 26%, which leads one to wonder if Dalbec can even make it in MLB, and if the time to deal him may be now while the hype is high. That's something I'm willing to wait and see on. He's got plenty of time. I'm not in love with Dalbec, but he sure is intriguing. I'd trade him if a team really wanted him and offered something we need more.
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danr
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Post by danr on Nov 16, 2018 18:45:30 GMT -5
Dalbec struck out a lot in college. He probably always will strike out a lot. However, I can't find any Red Sox minor leaguer in the past 25 years who hit 32 HRs at A+ and AA with an OPS above .900 at A+ and above .800 at AA. Bryce Brentz hit 30 between A and A+ but I could not find anyone else very close. I would hesitate before trading him, but I wouldn't rule it out, especially if he was part of a deal that brought a front line player or pitcher. He is 23 and maybe two seasons from the majors.
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Nov 16, 2018 19:26:41 GMT -5
Dalbec struck out a lot in college. He probably always will strike out a lot. However, I can't find any Red Sox minor leaguer in the past 25 years who hit 32 HRs at A+ and AA with an OPS above .900 at A+ and above .800 at AA. Bryce Brentz hit 30 between A and A+ but I could not find anyone else very close. I would hesitate before trading him, but I wouldn't rule it out, especially if he was part of a deal that brought a front line player or pitcher. He is 23 and maybe two seasons from the majors. That was not a bad season for Dalbec at age 23. But at age 23 Ryan Lavarnway hit 32 hrs and hit 290/376/564/939 in AA and AAA, and only struck out 107 times in 503 PA, plus he had a 738 OPS with 2 more hrs in 43 PA in Boston. His lifetime mlb stats are 208/268/326/593.
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danr
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Post by danr on Nov 16, 2018 19:41:47 GMT -5
I learned long ago when I was a journalist that one should never write that something never had happened because someone would find that it had. That idea did occur to me when I wrote the above but I thought I had made a detailed search!
Point well made.
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Post by prangerx on Nov 18, 2018 13:06:37 GMT -5
Its not as much the prospects we traded away but the fact they haven't reloaded enough. Of course there is the effects of the new rules so its not just Dombroski's fault. I was one of the people very critical of this approach but its hard to be angry about it now. Whatever else happens, they won a World Series. Its hard to argue it wasn't worth it. Even if this team breaks up... Which still is concerning , but at least Dom's moves paid off. Missing out in some of the years where we picked high have hurt the Sox I think. Specifically the year we took Trey Ball. Missing with the seventh overall pick after a lost year wasn't good. At least we drafted. Benintendi the other year we picked high. No idea if Groomm will pay off or not.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Nov 18, 2018 13:31:36 GMT -5
Its not as much the prospects we traded away but the fact they haven't reloaded enough. Of course there is the effects of the new rules so its not just Dombroski's fault. I was one of the people very critical of this approach but its hard to be angry about it now. Whatever else happens, they won a World Series. Its hard to argue it wasn't worth it. Even if this team breaks up... Which still is concerning , but at least Dom's moves paid off. Missing out in some of the years where we picked high have hurt the Sox I think. Specifically the year we took Trey Ball. Missing with the seventh overall pick after a lost year wasn't good. At least we drafted. Benintendi the other year we picked high. No idea if Groomm will pay off or not. The Sox have had really unfortunate stuff happen too. The league picked on them to make a example out of them in the packaged deal prospect drama. Then they lost a top 50 prospect arguably in the world in Daniel Flores to cancer. They did try to reload.
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Nov 18, 2018 13:40:44 GMT -5
If we look at the assets that were traded, excluding Shaw who was already up to the bigs, not many positives yet. Some of that is due to injuries - Kopech and Espinoza with TJ - but a quick inventory shows a lot of mundane numbers, so far at least. Kimbrel trade:Javy Guerra looks as if they sold high. He's done little since leaving the Sox system. Margot got off to a very slow start in 2018 and it didn't get much better in the second half. Asuaje is a useful piece, but really a utility guy. The prize here is probably Logan Allen. He made it to AAA at 21, the K rate is still over 9 per, and his WHIP is hovering around 1.0 - with only 110 hits in 148 innings! I have a feeling we'll be ruefully adding up his WAR as the years go on to total up the real cost. Sale Trade:Moncada led the league with 237 Ks which is just mind-boggling. He has some value, but it's not what we thought he'd be, certainly not what I thought he'd get to. There's still time, but he's got to find a way to reduce the K rate which sits at 1 out of every 3 at bats! Luis Alexander Basabe is coming along at 21. He struggled a little in AA after the promotion last year but overall he's making his way through the minor leagues. He's shown a bit of power, and he likes to try for steals, though he's not all that good at it right now. And he takes walks also. There's some promise here. Victor Diaz looks like a lottery ticket, at best. Can't make heads or tails out of last season's numbers. Even for a small sample size, they were horrific. Details from MiLB show a string of visits to the disabled list, so that's probably a strong hint that something's wrong. Pomeranz Trade:Espinoza on the shelf for two years now. This coming season will probably answer the question of what he has going forward.
My takeaway: a lot of players which increases the likelihood of hitting on some gems. That's happened, but the overall evaluation seems to be positive.
Also Mauricio Dubon, 922 ops in a few games and 114 PA at AAA in 2018 before torn ACL, 712 OPS in 2017.
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Nov 18, 2018 13:44:25 GMT -5
Its not as much the prospects we traded away but the fact they haven't reloaded enough. Of course there is the effects of the new rules so its not just Dombroski's fault. I was one of the people very critical of this approach but its hard to be angry about it now. Whatever else happens, they won a World Series. Its hard to argue it wasn't worth it. Even if this team breaks up... Which still is concerning , but at least Dom's moves paid off. Missing out in some of the years where we picked high have hurt the Sox I think. Specifically the year we took Trey Ball. Missing with the seventh overall pick after a lost year wasn't good. At least we drafted. Benintendi the other year we picked high. No idea if Groomm will pay off or not. The Sox have had really unfortunate stuff happen too. The league picked on them to make a example out of them in the packaged deal prospect drama. Then they lost a top 50 prospect arguably in the world in Daniel Flores to cancer. They did try to reload. And Ryan Westmoreland is a week younger than JBJ.
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Post by Guidas on Nov 18, 2018 15:02:39 GMT -5
I did see Kopech in AAA this year and he was lights out. If he is one of those guys who gains velocity after TJ, God help the rest of the league in 2 years. Gaining velocity after TJS is going to eventually be shown to be a complete myth. IMO, it only works out that way for pitchers who had a lot of room for strength improvement that comes with rehabbing, especially the shoulder. (and for HS pitchers, they probably always gain velocity since they're growing and getting stronger and rehabbing their arm with more strength work than they ever did before) But for most MLB pitchers these days, there is little room for improvement, especially for a guy who threw 105 once. If Kopech threw even harder, he's just going to get hurt faster. I did not know this - thanks. You stopped me from getting elective TJ surgery as I teach my self to throw left-handed and then try to become an MLB LOGY. Hey, we all need a retirement plan.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Nov 18, 2018 23:23:53 GMT -5
If we look at the assets that were traded, excluding Shaw who was already up to the bigs, not many positives yet. Some of that is due to injuries - Kopech and Espinoza with TJ - but a quick inventory shows a lot of mundane numbers, so far at least. Kimbrel trade:Javy Guerra looks as if they sold high. He's done little since leaving the Sox system. Margot got off to a very slow start in 2018 and it didn't get much better in the second half. Asuaje is a useful piece, but really a utility guy. The prize here is probably Logan Allen. He made it to AAA at 21, the K rate is still over 9 per, and his WHIP is hovering around 1.0 - with only 110 hits in 148 innings! I have a feeling we'll be ruefully adding up his WAR as the years go on to total up the real cost. Sale Trade:Moncada led the league with 237 Ks which is just mind-boggling. He has some value, but it's not what we thought he'd be, certainly not what I thought he'd get to. There's still time, but he's got to find a way to reduce the K rate which sits at 1 out of every 3 at bats! Luis Alexander Basabe is coming along at 21. He struggled a little in AA after the promotion last year but overall he's making his way through the minor leagues. He's shown a bit of power, and he likes to try for steals, though he's not all that good at it right now. And he takes walks also. There's some promise here. Victor Diaz looks like a lottery ticket, at best. Can't make heads or tails out of last season's numbers. Even for a small sample size, they were horrific. Details from MiLB show a string of visits to the disabled list, so that's probably a strong hint that something's wrong. Pomeranz Trade:Espinoza on the shelf for two years now. This coming season will probably answer the question of what he has going forward. My takeaway: a lot of players which increases the likelihood of hitting on some gems. That's happened, but the overall evaluation seems to be positive.
Also Mauricio Dubon, 922 ops in a few games and 114 PA at AAA in 2018 before torn ACL, 712 OPS in 2017. FWIW, Colorado Springs is one of the hitter-friendliest parks in AAA, and Dubon hit for most of his power there (11 of his 15 XBH, including 3 of his 4 HR). Dubon also had about a 70-point slugging percentage spike after being promoted there last year too. He's a future major leaguer and could be a productive one, but I'm not taking too much from his offensive spike in Colorado. ----- My only qualms with Dombrowski on trades have been these: 1) Way too willing to include a toss-in where it probably shouldn't have been necessary. The Sox won the Kimbrel trade, but I can't help but wonder if they really needed to add Allen, who'd be nice to have right now. Nitpicking though. 2) The "acquisition" mindset as opposed to the "trade" mindset. Almost all of his trades have been for a single player. He goes and gets a guy, and pays a cost for that. I wish we could've had more second pieces coming back. This kind of fits in with my prior point - ok fine, you want Allen? we're going to ask our scouts who we want you to throw in too. Call this the Brock Holt category. 3) The Milwaukee trade. Only one where he's been hosed. But that said, nobody thought Shaw was going to become what he did.
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Post by GyIantosca on Nov 18, 2018 23:42:01 GMT -5
I just think Dever has just barely scratched the surface. But he was very important in the playoffs very clutch. I’m looking for a big jump from him. The system is gonna get a big jump start from the kids from this draft. I am not worried at all.
I tell you it’s nice to have prospects but tell me out of all these teams who graduates them and gets big rewards from them.
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gerry
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Post by gerry on Nov 19, 2018 5:02:23 GMT -5
Three points: 1. The Sox have been a largely homegrown team for several years, with pretty much the only need being to acquire Ace level SP and a couple of RP’s; that’s where so many top prospects landed. 2. Travis Shaw would have allowed Devers some more mLB time to develop and/or provide a 30HR homegrown1B. Agree with Chris that was a bad deal, but one DDo was able to recover from short term with MM, Pearce, Devers, Nunez. Meanwhile, DDo could soon have every player on the field as homegrown with Chavis, Dalbec, Ockimey, Casas and other homegrown, long term solutions available starting in 2019. Nice. 3. Chris, it was my impression that I was just one of many on this and other boards who liked Shaw as a keeper, a good player who was figuring things out (which he clearly was) and a key member (and Mayor) of the emerging core of Mookie, Bogie, Bradley, Swihart, CV, Marrero, including Brockstar and other trusted pals. I think his loss was felt in the clubhouse as well. The awesomeness of the return made it palatable, until it didn’t. Hopefully Shaw will get a ring someday.
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Post by dirtdog on Nov 20, 2018 23:11:52 GMT -5
I just think Dever has just barely scratched the surface. I agree, if he could be even a little more selective at the plate, sometimes he just swings from the heels. You dont give up on that swing though especially at his age. That homer off Chapman in 2017 showed you what he could be.
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Post by larrycook on Nov 21, 2018 16:48:17 GMT -5
It’s kind of hard to bring in blue chip talent when you are drafting 25th or higher every round. Sometimes you have to gamble on youngsters. One year you find a mookie. The next six years you find nothing.
The international pool money has evened the field a bit in that area as well. Really hard to stockpile those guys.
I would really like th Sox to get aggressive and go after the Japanese pitcher that is about to be posted, that would be a huge win, but not help the farm any, except give our youngsters more development time.
Fixing our farm system is going to take time. I like taking chances on youngsters with power, Like Cassas. I thought adding Felton was a huge win for us as well,
The process is working, but will take a couple more years before results become more tangible,
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