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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Nov 16, 2018 19:13:20 GMT -5
This is real interesting-
Rhode Island is closer to Boston.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Nov 16, 2018 20:00:58 GMT -5
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Post by marrcus on Nov 16, 2018 22:39:13 GMT -5
I had never heard that, he's a southern boy? A quick check shows he may live in Barrington on the East bay. I'll assume it's a wife thing.
We'll that changes the perspective a bit.
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bosox
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Post by bosox on Nov 16, 2018 23:06:44 GMT -5
I had never heard that, he's a southern boy? A quick check shows he may live in Barrington on the East bay. I'll assume it's a wife thing. We'll that changes the perspective a bit. I believe his wife's family is from New England. At the end of FA process, I will be surprised if he doesn't re-sign with the Yankees.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Nov 16, 2018 23:09:30 GMT -5
I had never heard that, he's a southern boy? A quick check shows he may live in Barrington on the East bay. I'll assume it's a wife thing. We'll that changes the perspective a bit. I believe his wife's family is from New England. At the end of FA process, I will be surprised if he doesn't re-sign with the Yankees. I could see Robertson coming to Boston, especially if the money's close. He has left New York before. He will have the opportunity to close here and Robertson seems like exact kind of reliever Dave Dombrowski will target. There's very few relievers who have been more dependable than Robertson the past 7 or 8 years.
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Post by jiant2520 on Nov 17, 2018 6:09:45 GMT -5
I would welcome Robertson for sure
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Post by tookme55 on Nov 17, 2018 7:09:47 GMT -5
That leaves the pitching.... if I knew their budget then it would be easier to know what they should do, but in my opinion what they need is the following: 1. Right handed starter who is legit mid rotation material with higher end upside. That basically leaves the options as Eovaldi, Morton, Cahill or trade. Either of the first 2 would work, with Eovaldi being the clear cut number 1 choice. The fact they can be a rover come October is a huge piece of it. 2. At least 2 power relievers who can pitch in high leverage situations. Would love 3 and would love to have one left handed, but 2 is realistic and as long as they can get both righties and lefties out it doesn’t much matter. Options are (Kimbrel, Kelly, Miller, Robertson, Ottavino, Familia and Britton). My ideal scenario would be Kelly, Miller and Robertson. I don’t trust Joe Kelly but it’s hard to walk away from what we just saw, because what we just saw is the best relief pitcher in baseball. It’s worth a shot since he’s not going to be paid like that guy. The risk is he’s going to get more money and years than he would ever be worth should be go back to being the same guy we are used to, but when you have deep pockets that is a chance worth taking. I'd be very surprised with "At least 2 power relievers", unless one of those is Kelly at a reasonable price. I don't see that happening either. I'd settle for one.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Nov 17, 2018 9:14:53 GMT -5
There is certainly a figure for a 1-year deal that Andrew Miller couldn't turn down. The question is, how high do you have to go?
Most folks are pegging him for a 2/$22M deal. A few have him getting a 3rd year at that price and a few have him at $12M AAV.
Being one year older isn't going to negatively affect the length of a deal Miller signs next winter. So if he doesn't have an awful year and/or get hurt again, signing a one-year deal for a higher figure than the AAV of the offers he's gotten is the equivalent of getting three years, and the extra year comes with a premium reward.
Furthermore, if he returns to form, the AAV of the subsequent deal will be higher than the offers we're outbidding, and he might well get three more years and four total.
It goes without saying that he's familiar with the city, ballpark and some of his potential teammates: Xander, Pedey, JBJ, Mookie (first 10 MLB games but also in ST), CV, and Wright. He also would have a great shot at a championship, obviously, and that shouldn't be underestimated as a motivation.
I think it all comes down to how confident he is about returning to form, and to whether any attractive (not desperate) team offers him three years. If he's feeling good about himself, I think you can get him for 1/$12 unless there's an attractive 3-year deal out there (which I think is unlikely). If he has nagging doubts, he wants the security of the extra year, which means you can't get him at a price you'd be willing to pay -- and you don't want him.
So there seems to be a built-in reduced risk to an offer, and his accepting it would be an indication that he's feeling good about next year.
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Post by soxjim on Nov 17, 2018 14:05:55 GMT -5
I see there has been mention of guys like Miller to see if they would take a 1 year deal-- how about someone like Britton? Fangraphs McDaniel has him making just $10m per year. Yet as the poster umass said Buster Olney has Kelly making a a lot before his October run. Though I think Buster Olney is usually wrong and isn't much of a source for anything. Britton vs Kelly? Imo - Britton. Britton. Britton.
Further I like Britton better than I like Robertson.
And I do like Pomeranz. They put him the W/S roster in which Cora said they were waiting all year for his fastball to get to 93-94 and they finally saw it. SO expectations should be he'll be pretty good this upcoming year?
I think starters are undervalued now in the market. Fangraphs McDaniel only project Corbin at $18m? I think he should be $20m or above?
Anyways-- Eovaldi got to be the big get. Then worry about the pen. Deals can always be made. Though right now I'd shade toward a bullpen led by Britton vs Robertson or Miller especially if he is just $10m or if you can get him one year.
Regarding the pen-- I'd be interested to know when Sox expect Feltman. And is Lakins any good?
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Nov 17, 2018 19:21:11 GMT -5
I see there has been mention of guys like Miller to see if they would take a 1 year deal-- how about someone like Britton? Fangraphs McDaniel has him making just $10m per year. Yet as the poster umass said Buster Olney has Kelly making a a lot before his October run. Though I think Buster Olney is usually wrong and isn't much of a source for anything. Britton vs Kelly? Imo - Britton. Britton. Britton. Further I like Britton better than I like Robertson. And I do like Pomeranz. They put him the W/S roster in which Cora said they were waiting all year for his fastball to get to 93-94 and they finally saw it. SO expectations should be he'll be pretty good this upcoming year? I think starters are undervalued now in the market. Fangraphs McDaniel only project Corbin at $18m? I think he should be $20m or above? Anyways-- Eovaldi got to be the big get. Then worry about the pen. Deals can always be made. Though right now I'd shade toward a bullpen led by Britton vs Robertson or Miller especially if he is just $10m or if you can get him one year. Regarding the pen-- I'd be interested to know when Sox expect Feltman. And is Lakins any good? I think the consensus is that they want to add two arms, one from each side. So Britton versus Robinson may not be a thing unless you're going cheap on the otherspot.
I do think they'd like to fill one of the two spots with a 1-year deal, because we indeed expect some kids to be ready in 2020. And that allows you to go better-than-cheap on both spots. That's why I like Miller for the LHR for one year.
There's a thread where people evaluate the two rooks you name two plus Shawaryn and Hernandez. Lots of good info.
BTW, has there even an MLB team that simultaneously had a Rodriguez, a Hernandez, and a Velasquez on their staff?
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Nov 17, 2018 20:30:57 GMT -5
I see there has been mention of guys like Miller to see if they would take a 1 year deal-- how about someone like Britton? Fangraphs McDaniel has him making just $10m per year. Yet as the poster umass said Buster Olney has Kelly making a a lot before his October run. Though I think Buster Olney is usually wrong and isn't much of a source for anything. Britton vs Kelly? Imo - Britton. Britton. Britton. Further I like Britton better than I like Robertson. And I do like Pomeranz. They put him the W/S roster in which Cora said they were waiting all year for his fastball to get to 93-94 and they finally saw it. SO expectations should be he'll be pretty good this upcoming year? I think starters are undervalued now in the market. Fangraphs McDaniel only project Corbin at $18m? I think he should be $20m or above? Anyways-- Eovaldi got to be the big get. Then worry about the pen. Deals can always be made. Though right now I'd shade toward a bullpen led by Britton vs Robertson or Miller especially if he is just $10m or if you can get him one year. Regarding the pen-- I'd be interested to know when Sox expect Feltman. And is Lakins any good? I think the consensus is that they want to add two arms, one from each side. So Britton versus Robinson may not be a thing unless you're going cheap on the otherspot.
I do think they'd like to fill one of the two spots with a 1-year deal, because we indeed expect some kids to be ready in 2020. And that allows you to go better-than-cheap on both spots. That's why I like Miller for the LHR for one year.
There's a thread where people evaluate the two rooks you name two plus Shawaryn and Hernandez. Lots of good info.
BTW, has there even an MLB team that simultaneously had a Rodriguez, a Hernandez, and a Velasquez on their staff?
How is Andrew Miller worth one year though? He's getting 2 years at least and it wouldn't surprise me if he gets 3 on the market. There's going to be a ton of interest for him. You could go to 20 million to get him to sign for a year, but that's just stupid.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Nov 17, 2018 21:07:54 GMT -5
I'm kind of with Lou on this. Robertson or Miller would be fine. I only want Kelly if he's cheap. I'd prefer Kelvim Herrera as a alternative to Kelly if he gets too many years or gets anything more than 6 million AAV a year.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Nov 17, 2018 22:10:17 GMT -5
I think the consensus is that they want to add two arms, one from each side. So Britton versus Robinson may not be a thing unless you're going cheap on the otherspot.
I do think they'd like to fill one of the two spots with a 1-year deal, because we indeed expect some kids to be ready in 2020. And that allows you to go better-than-cheap on both spots. That's why I like Miller for the LHR for one year.
There's a thread where people evaluate the two rooks you name two plus Shawaryn and Hernandez. Lots of good info.
BTW, has there even an MLB team that simultaneously had a Rodriguez, a Hernandez, and a Velasquez on their staff?
How is Andrew Miller worth one year though? He's getting 2 years at least and it wouldn't surprise me if he gets 3 on the market. There's going to be a ton of interest for him. You could go to 20 million to get him to sign for a year, but that's just stupid. I explained why it's perfectly possible -- two posts before the one you were replying to.
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Post by soxjim on Nov 17, 2018 22:46:01 GMT -5
I see there has been mention of guys like Miller to see if they would take a 1 year deal-- how about someone like Britton? Fangraphs McDaniel has him making just $10m per year. Yet as the poster umass said Buster Olney has Kelly making a a lot before his October run. Though I think Buster Olney is usually wrong and isn't much of a source for anything. Britton vs Kelly? Imo - Britton. Britton. Britton. Further I like Britton better than I like Robertson. And I do like Pomeranz. They put him the W/S roster in which Cora said they were waiting all year for his fastball to get to 93-94 and they finally saw it. SO expectations should be he'll be pretty good this upcoming year? I think starters are undervalued now in the market. Fangraphs McDaniel only project Corbin at $18m? I think he should be $20m or above? Anyways-- Eovaldi got to be the big get. Then worry about the pen. Deals can always be made. Though right now I'd shade toward a bullpen led by Britton vs Robertson or Miller especially if he is just $10m or if you can get him one year. Regarding the pen-- I'd be interested to know when Sox expect Feltman. And is Lakins any good? I think the consensus is that they want to add two arms, one from each side. So Britton versus Robinson may not be a thing unless you're going cheap on the otherspot.
I do think they'd like to fill one of the two spots with a 1-year deal, because we indeed expect some kids to be ready in 2020. And that allows you to go better-than-cheap on both spots. That's why I like Miller for the LHR for one year.
There's a thread where people evaluate the two rooks you name two plus Shawaryn and Hernandez. Lots of good info.
BTW, has there even an MLB team that simultaneously had a Rodriguez, a Hernandez, and a Velasquez on their staff?
What are your thoughts on the below? 1-- Per Fangraphs McDaniel --- Miller is projected with contract 2 years $22m. Britton is projected three years at $30m. You'd think Britton still thinks he is among the top relievers, right? So if he is only getting offers of $10m per for three -- and he probably believes he is much better than that-- why wouldn't he also might go for 1 year deal just like Miller might? If he is as good as he thinks he'll probably expect to at least get $10m or more after next year anyways, right? So isn't he in play for 1 year just as much as Miller if Fangrpahs McDaniel's evaluation is right? 2-- My point with Britton vs Robertson was there was mention to get Robertson. McDaniel is projecting Robertson at two years $13m per. Comparing that to Britton at 3 years $10m per if we use his numbers, I felt Britton would be the better option. 1.) I think Britton is better and 2.) It seems when SOx need to get below in 2020 Britton will be cheaper than Robertson. So isn't Robertson the one that is more expensive to get than Britton if Sox need to go cheap? So if you can't afford Britton at $10m then it means you can't afford Robertson, then it means the Sox are probably going to be stuck with an unproven closer for 2019 then, right?
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Nov 17, 2018 23:05:11 GMT -5
How is Andrew Miller worth one year though? He's getting 2 years at least and it wouldn't surprise me if he gets 3 on the market. There's going to be a ton of interest for him. You could go to 20 million to get him to sign for a year, but that's just stupid. I explained why it's perfectly possible -- two posts before the one you were replying to. I saw that post, but a 12 million dollar deal for one year isn't realistic. The market is kinder to relievers these days. Pat Neshek who is way worse than Miller career wise got 2 years at the age of 36 or 37 last offseason. This was in a "depressed market" last year. Miller is a left handed reliever which also jacks up his value. I don't see it. We will see. The Sox need to come away with one of Miller, Robertson, Ottavino, or worst comes to worst, Britton. They are the best alternatives to Kimbrel for the time being. If you want to realistically win in 2019 again, you got give your team a realistic 9th inning option at least to start the year. If Feltman or Lakins take over by the end of the year, so be it. Add- Miller is going to want years. The most years possible. If anything, the best you can hope for is a opt out or player option after a year in a 2 or 3 year deal.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Nov 18, 2018 0:30:09 GMT -5
I explained why it's perfectly possible -- two posts before the one you were replying to. I saw that post, but a 12 million dollar deal for one year isn't realistic. The market is kinder to relievers these days. Pat Neshek who is way worse than Miller career wise got 2 years at the age of 36 or 37 last offseason. This was in a "depressed market" last year. Miller is a left handed reliever which also jacks up his value. I don't see it. We will see. The Sox need to come away with one of Miller, Robertson, Ottavino, or worst comes to worst, Britton. They are the best alternatives to Kimbrel for the time being. If you want to realistically win in 2019 again, you got give your team a realistic 9th inning option at least to start the year. If Feltman or Lakins take over by the end of the year, so be it. Add- Miller is going to want years. The most years possible. If anything, the best you can hope for is a opt out or player option after a year in a 2 or 3 year deal. Supply and Demand, its that simple. Most years you have a couple closer and a couple top set up guys. This year is just loaded and a lot of guys are coming off down years. Neshek was comimg off a 2.8 bwar season, Miller was .2 bwar last year. It's like Eric said, its not like he can't get a longer deal, but it might make sense to take a one year deal. Have a huge year, then get a big long-term deal next year. I got a feeling a lot of good relievers are going to be had this year on rather cheap deals compared to past years.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Nov 18, 2018 0:35:29 GMT -5
I saw that post, but a 12 million dollar deal for one year isn't realistic. The market is kinder to relievers these days. Pat Neshek who is way worse than Miller career wise got 2 years at the age of 36 or 37 last offseason. This was in a "depressed market" last year. Miller is a left handed reliever which also jacks up his value. I don't see it. We will see. The Sox need to come away with one of Miller, Robertson, Ottavino, or worst comes to worst, Britton. They are the best alternatives to Kimbrel for the time being. If you want to realistically win in 2019 again, you got give your team a realistic 9th inning option at least to start the year. If Feltman or Lakins take over by the end of the year, so be it. Add- Miller is going to want years. The most years possible. If anything, the best you can hope for is a opt out or player option after a year in a 2 or 3 year deal. Supply and Demand, its that simple. Most years you have a couple closer and a couple top set up guys. This year is just loaded and a lot of guys are coming off down years. Neshek was comimg off a 2.8 bwar season, Miller was .2 bwar last year. It's like Eric said, its not like he can't get a longer deal, but it might make sense to take a one year deal. Have a huge year, then get a big long-term deal next year. I got a feeling a lot of good relievers are going to be had this year on rather cheap deals compared to past years. There are a lot of teams looking for relievers though. Phillies, Dodgers, Cubs, Braves, Yankees, Sox, Astros, Nationals, Cardinals. The demand is just as loaded as the supply. Heck, you could even throw a couple of rebuilding teams in there trying to get prospects on deals for relievers thinking they can flip them at the deadline. Miller is coming off a down year, but everyone knows who he is. I don't see how a market that's down on a 34 year old reliever would be better for a 35 year old reliever next year. If anything, he takes the 2 or 3 years with a opt out after a year. If he has a down season again, he has the security. He has a great season, then maybe he goes back on the market getting a richer 2 year deal. Add- If I was the Royals, Tigers, Padres, or Reds, I'd be targeting all these relievers and seeing how many I can get and flipping later on. Maybe it takes a 3 year 30+ million dollar deal to get one, but so what? You're spending nothing on anything else anyways. You minus well try for a homerun to get a good prospect later on. If you fail, you wasted one year of a bad reliever deal. You can always bounce back in year 2 and try to flip whoever again.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Nov 18, 2018 12:06:48 GMT -5
There's a thread where people evaluate the two rooks you name two plus Shawaryn and Hernandez. Lots of good info. Eric, that's this thread now. Combined them. Peep the start of the thread. Seemed pertinent (as your reference to it seems to confirm).
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Nov 18, 2018 23:14:40 GMT -5
I saw that post, but a 12 million dollar deal for one year isn't realistic. The market is kinder to relievers these days. Pat Neshek who is way worse than Miller career wise got 2 years at the age of 36 or 37 last offseason. This was in a "depressed market" last year. Miller is a left handed reliever which also jacks up his value. I don't see it. We will see. The Sox need to come away with one of Miller, Robertson, Ottavino, or worst comes to worst, Britton. They are the best alternatives to Kimbrel for the time being. If you want to realistically win in 2019 again, you got give your team a realistic 9th inning option at least to start the year. If Feltman or Lakins take over by the end of the year, so be it. Add- Miller is going to want years. The most years possible. If anything, the best you can hope for is a opt out or player option after a year in a 2 or 3 year deal. Supply and Demand, its that simple. Most years you have a couple closer and a couple top set up guys. This year is just loaded and a lot of guys are coming off down years. Neshek was comimg off a 2.8 bwar season, Miller was .2 bwar last year. It's like Eric said, its not like he can't get a longer deal, but it might make sense to take a one year deal. Have a huge year, then get a big long-term deal next year. I got a feeling a lot of good relievers are going to be had this year on rather cheap deals compared to past years.
Oh, and Cafardo's column today had an item about how Miller still talks about his Red Sox experience being special.
There's a thread where people evaluate the two rooks you name two plus Shawaryn and Hernandez. Lots of good info. Eric, that's this thread now. Combined them. Peep the start of the thread. Seemed pertinent (as your reference to it seems to confirm). I thought that it might be, but it lists you as a thread starter! I should have known -- that's what happens when the mods massage the threads.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Nov 19, 2018 0:57:29 GMT -5
Supply and Demand, its that simple. Most years you have a couple closer and a couple top set up guys. This year is just loaded and a lot of guys are coming off down years. Neshek was comimg off a 2.8 bwar season, Miller was .2 bwar last year. It's like Eric said, its not like he can't get a longer deal, but it might make sense to take a one year deal. Have a huge year, then get a big long-term deal next year. I got a feeling a lot of good relievers are going to be had this year on rather cheap deals compared to past years. ]Given where we're at with the bullpen, I hope the plan is to sign someone quick for market value and then maybe pick up a team friendly 1-year deal in January/February if the right guy is left on the market. Given how many prospects we have that could help by mid-summer, I hope the team doesn't pick up two multi-year deals. I wouldn't mind 2 guys on multi year deals. You're talking about potentially 3-5 guys in Hernandez, Shawaryn, Feltman, Lakins, and Poyner being bullpen options in the future. You have a collection of Brasier, Barnes, Hembree, Wright/Johnson/Velazquez under contract only right now. Barnes, Wright, and Hembree are already in arbitration years. Hembree is trade bait at any point past 2019 the latest due to rising arbitration costs. In an ideal world, you keep Shawaryn and Hernandez stretched out for as long as possible until you need them in the bullpen for need. Lakins, Poyner, and Feltman all have options. Hopefully Feltman and Lakins don't use their options due to performance once their called up, but it allows flexibility the next 1-2 years if need be. Basically to sum up everything, you have room this year and future years for 2 good relievers. Just pick your relievers wisely. That would be my best advice.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Nov 19, 2018 13:33:01 GMT -5
Supply and Demand, its that simple. Most years you have a couple closer and a couple top set up guys. This year is just loaded and a lot of guys are coming off down years. Neshek was comimg off a 2.8 bwar season, Miller was .2 bwar last year. It's like Eric said, its not like he can't get a longer deal, but it might make sense to take a one year deal. Have a huge year, then get a big long-term deal next year. I got a feeling a lot of good relievers are going to be had this year on rather cheap deals compared to past years. It sounds good in theory, but I think that over simplifies the practical application of this scenario. If you want a deal on a player then, generally, you have to wait out the market and sign with whoever didn't get their money. The problem with that is that you don't get to choose who is left on the market and you may not be happy with the options. If you want a particular player or want to fill a vacancy early then you have to pay up. Getting a discount and getting the guy you want is most likely an either/or scenario. I don't think the Red Sox can afford to let the market play out and risk not getting at least one of their top guys. Given where we're at with the bullpen, I hope the plan is to sign someone quick for market value and then maybe pick up a team friendly 1-year deal in January/February if the right guy is left on the market. Given how many prospects we have that could help by mid-summer, I hope the team doesn't pick up two multi-year deals. I'm not saying the Red Sox should wait for a bargin for their top guy. At the sametime so many options will knockdown the prices of even the guys that sign quickly. You just won't have all the top teams fighting over one guy, it will be spread out. Just look at all the combinations people on this board want. The simple fact no one can agree just shows how many options you have. After getting that guy I think you can double dip because it could be great value
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Nov 19, 2018 16:05:50 GMT -5
Well the Sox already tried to acquire Herrera once this past season, so if the Sox can't get Kelly on a cheap deal, he's probably the Sox second bullpen target after you sign one of the big free agent bullpen pieces.
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Post by ramireja on Nov 19, 2018 16:55:09 GMT -5
Soria has somewhat quietly put up numbers in the past two years that rival his peak closer seasons with KC. His velo has been sitting at career high levels over the past four seasons as well. Sign me up for him as an alternative to Robertson (my top pick if the price is right) and Britton.
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Post by michael on Nov 19, 2018 17:29:00 GMT -5
BTW, has there even an MLB team that simultaneously had a Rodriguez, a Hernandez, and a Velasquez on their staff?
[/quote] Pitching to a Vasquez!
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Nov 19, 2018 17:59:45 GMT -5
There are 14 relievers in the top 50 free agents, according to mlb.com: Kimbrel (5) Familia (17) Britton (18) Robertson (19) Ottavino (21) Miller (24) Kelly (25) Herrera (26) Cahill (30) Soria (34) Allan (37) Norris (40) Brach (41) Chavez (44) That is a lot names, but there are 30 teams and Miller is (at worst) the second best lefty on the list. I'd be surprised if that supply/demand thing provides us any real leverage. I don't think you necessarily have to get him on the cheap though. I'd be fine if Miller was the big name we got from this list, we need a lefty and some Barnes insurance and he provides both. They have him pegged at 3/$27M (to the Red Sox). You could probably knock that down to 2/$22 if you were really concerned about the extra year, but I don't know that there would be much point. For him to turn down $27M guaranteed (or $22 based on fangrahps), I would think you'd have to pay him $15-17M for a 1-year deal and that just seems unnecessary. Anything could happen and nostalgia may get the better of him, but he does have an agent who should be able to get him to the team he wants without sacrificing too much market value. I'd be nervous if I were anyone below Kelly on this list, that's where the value plays are likely going to start coming into play and I would bet that at least one guy will have to settle for a 1-year deal. Anyone in particular that we should keep an eye on? Well I have zero issues if your have to pay amount is 3 years 27 million for Miller, which is a big downgrade from what he was making. Without his down year and a crazy flooded market he'd likely be looking at 3-4 years at 15-17 million. Which is why I buy that he might take a one year deal at 12 to 14 million, then look at a longer deal next year. Greg Holland got 1 year 14 million last year.
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