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Post by jimed14 on Nov 19, 2018 18:14:56 GMT -5
Actually, Miller is coming off a 4/$36 M contract so it's the same amount per year.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Nov 19, 2018 18:23:05 GMT -5
Actually, Miller is coming off a 4/$36 M contract so it's the same amount per year. My bad I thought it was 3 years 39 million for some reason.
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Post by jimed14 on Nov 19, 2018 18:43:24 GMT -5
Actually, Miller is coming off a 4/$36 M contract so it's the same amount per year. My bad I thought it was 3 years 39 million for some reason. Doesn't change much, because he was kinda underpaid relatively speaking.
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Post by telson13 on Nov 19, 2018 20:07:46 GMT -5
Very interesting thought. They could go semi-Rays and start breaking in pitchers like Houck and Hernandez who sorta fit the profile as well (great stuff, not enough pitches/great stuff, not enough control/command) of 2-times-through guys like Glasnow. I’d have no problem with a base 3/18 and escalators that could turn it to, say, 3/33. I really hope the Red Sox don't acquire an opener, my understanding was that the Rays did this simply because they didn't have enough 6+ IP starters and had to piece something together. Doesn't really seem like a strategy for a team like the Red Sox. Kelly back as a reliever is fine by me, but I think 2 innings every other day is a bit much to expect. That's 162 innings of relief. Relievers tend to max out at 80 IP and break down constantly, so no matter how many innings he pitches per appearance I wouldn't expect him to go too far past his 65.2 IP from this year and still pitch effectively. I really don't like him back as a strict piggy back, because that means your bullpen is one man short 4 days out of 5. Doing all the unconventional stuff with a bullpen is great in those break-glass-in-case-of-emergency scenarios, but I'd hate to see the Red Sox go into a season with these types of scenarios as Plan A. Oh, I agree as far as acquiring players. I just think it’s an interesting, out-of-the-box approach to maximizing Kelly’s value if they do re-sign him. FWIW, I do think there might be some hidden value in using an “opener,” especially someone like Kelly who has a rubber arm and is capable of starting. Kind of like Milwaukee’s approach in the playoffs, or TB’s approach during the regular season, it can create some matchup/lineup problems and deplete another team’s bench if they’re not careful. I also think its flipside, having a 4-5 inning pitcher who sticks to two times through the order, is probably a very good way to break in younger pitchers who might have major (but not critical) flaws; the examples being Glasnow (huge stuff, iffy command, needs reps), or alternatively Beeks (solid stuff all-around, sufficient command, but no wipeout pitches). The opener/bulk innings approach worked very well for TB. It also broadens the range of pitchers who have utility to the team, and gives them a place (in bulk innings) to use pitchers who don’t fit the traditional starter role well. That maximizes their opportunities to obtain and use pitchers whose value is down because they don’t fit the traditional roles most teams use. And my guess is that (we’ll see if this pans out) a fair number of those pitchers might actually end up developing/refining their major flaws, and thus regain substantial value as “traditional” starters. So while I agree that i don’t think the Sox should specifically go out and look to find openers (I think that’s really just an odd-time use of a traditional RP), or bulk innings guys (right away...I do think that’s a market inefficiency to be exploited tho), I DO think they’d be well-served to explore that as an option. And that’s because, aside from bulk innings guys probably coming relatively cheaply (and young, and cost-controlled), i think it's an economical approach to getting 4/5 production (or better) at very low cost. It’s probably also a great way to break in some young pitchers who might otherwise not be ready. Sure, ideally they don’t *need* to use it (i think you’re 100% right on the TB experiment being wholly based on need/injuries/financial constraints), but it’s been shown in practice (so far) to be a successful approach, despite the roster headaches.
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Post by telson13 on Nov 19, 2018 20:17:33 GMT -5
I think the consensus is that they want to add two arms, one from each side. So Britton versus Robinson may not be a thing unless you're going cheap on the otherspot.
I do think they'd like to fill one of the two spots with a 1-year deal, because we indeed expect some kids to be ready in 2020. And that allows you to go better-than-cheap on both spots. That's why I like Miller for the LHR for one year.
There's a thread where people evaluate the two rooks you name two plus Shawaryn and Hernandez. Lots of good info.
BTW, has there even an MLB team that simultaneously had a Rodriguez, a Hernandez, and a Velasquez on their staff?
What are your thoughts on the below? 1-- Per Fangraphs McDaniel --- Miller is projected with contract 2 years $22m. Britton is projected three years at $30m. You'd think Britton still thinks he is among the top relievers, right? So if he is only getting offers of $10m per for three -- and he probably believes he is much better than that-- why wouldn't he also might go for 1 year deal just like Miller might? If he is as good as he thinks he'll probably expect to at least get $10m or more after next year anyways, right? So isn't he in play for 1 year just as much as Miller if Fangrpahs McDaniel's evaluation is right? 2-- My point with Britton vs Robertson was there was mention to get Robertson. McDaniel is projecting Robertson at two years $13m per. Comparing that to Britton at 3 years $10m per if we use his numbers, I felt Britton would be the better option. 1.) I think Britton is better and 2.) It seems when SOx need to get below in 2020 Britton will be cheaper than Robertson. So isn't Robertson the one that is more expensive to get than Britton if Sox need to go cheap? So if you can't afford Britton at $10m then it means you can't afford Robertson, then it means the Sox are probably going to be stuck with an unproven closer for 2019 then, right? I often agree with Eric, but Jim I’m totally on board with you here. The Achilles rupture is a long lay-off, but Britton came back and got better towards the end of the year. He’s only 30. And as recently as two years ago, he was truly elite. If it were an elbow/shoulder, I’d be much less sanguine. But I think the risk is lower than people think. I came back from an Achilles rupture and was running 6-7 miles no problem. They’re also exceptionally low-risk to recur. My guess is Kiley’s thinking Britton’s age is what buys him the guaranteed years (and his question marks what keeps the AAV down) vs older pitchers like Robertson or Miller (both of whom I like but are nearing/in decline). Britton probably would be amenable to a shorter deal like the proposed 2/26 for Robertson. Personally, I’d rather they gamble and go with the lower AAV. If they could get him on a 3/27 with big escalators/incentives, I’d be ecstatic.
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Post by sarasoxer on Nov 19, 2018 22:26:59 GMT -5
My bad I thought it was 3 years 39 million for some reason. Doesn't change much, because he was kinda underpaid relatively speaking. In retrospect, yes. That was 4 years ago and I recall the Sox were considering 4 for 32. Some people here believed 4 for 36 was too high for a reliever. That short time ago was at the tail end of the belief that relievers were basically failed starters and mostly fungible....good one year, scrap heap the next...ergo not worth the investment. Perhaps partly due to the advent of many more power arms and their relative effectiveness, established relievers now command a price more closely commensurate to their worth. Despite drawing the short straw on Thornburg and Smith, Dombrowski recognized the evolution and capitalized. I'll bet that either Miller or Britton (should Kimbrel leave), plug the lefty power spot in the pen for 2019.
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Post by James Dunne on Nov 20, 2018 14:35:18 GMT -5
Greene is exactly the sort of player I'd look to bring in with so much room on the 40-man. Throws 99 with good sinking action, but his control just totally abandons him sometimes. For weeks. If he can't figure it out and stick, so what?
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Post by vermontsox1 on Nov 20, 2018 15:55:30 GMT -5
Probably more of a depth/org type move.
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gerry
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Post by gerry on Nov 21, 2018 4:25:34 GMT -5
Probably more of a depth/org type move. m Even as the Sox are talking with Eovaldi, Kelly, Kimbrel (who would be included in DDo’s statement that he would like to bring everyone back if possible) they are also talking with Britton, Robertson, Herrera, etc. and plenty of others. Brewer, Tapia and Greene indicate they may also be covering themselves in case they either trade from middle reliever depth,’and/or plan to use guys like Poyner, Lakins, Feltman in 2019.
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Post by unitspin on Nov 21, 2018 7:12:45 GMT -5
If its me I am bringing in a guy like miller or Robertson on a 2-3 deal. The rest of the bullpen can work itself out.
Barnes Brasier Workman Johnson Velazquez Hembree Thornburg Lakins The talent is there for an above average pen. Just do not want to see money wasted in the pen when it will be needed next season.
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Nov 21, 2018 8:16:37 GMT -5
Probably more of a depth/org type move. And/or a longshot hope that guy with big arm will put it together 2014 metsmerizedonline.com/2014/01/2014-mets-top-prospects-no-18-domingo-tapia-rhp.html/"This kid’s arm strength is off the charts. Domingo Tapia consistently throws in the high 90’s with the ability to hit triple digits at times which is why he finds himself high on this list. Both his fastball and changeup have sink that help him induce a good amount of groundballs. His curveball lags behind the other two pitches but should develop into an average offering when all is said and done. Up until last season in St. Lucie, Tapia had put up good BB/9 numbers but last year was his worst with 5.09. He also put up his highest WHIP (1.48) since playing professional ball. Because he was putting so many runners on base, his ERA ballooned to 4.62. This could have been due to the burned hand incident but we won’t know that until we see him perform this season. Hopefully his lackluster control was just an aberration and he can improve it this upcoming season where he could start in St. Lucie again or move up a rank to Binghamton. His ceiling is sky high but if he is not able to keep the walks down, he’ll have trouble reaching the majors. Outlook: Some scouts see Tapia as a future starting pitcher. I on the other hand, think he is best suited in the bullpen because the human body is not designed to throw that hard for multiple innings on every fifth day and his two pitch mix fits better there. His shaky control and slow delivery to the plate could forcibly land him there anyway. As he fills out his large frame and adds more strength he should have an easier time taming that ferocious fastball and serving it over the dish more. Once his changeup and curveball develop a little further, he could project in a rotation but more likely as a dominant bullpen arm. It’s only a matter of time before this kid starts to shoot up prospect lists because of his true plus potential.
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Post by telson13 on Nov 21, 2018 17:05:16 GMT -5
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Post by telson13 on Nov 21, 2018 23:01:38 GMT -5
Greene is exactly the sort of player I'd look to bring in with so much room on the 40-man. Throws 99 with good sinking action, but his control just totally abandons him sometimes. For weeks. If he can't figure it out and stick, so what? 100% agreed. He’s also the sort I wonder about as a guy Levangie and Bannister might uncover a seemingly minor fix in terms of command...one of those “epiphany” guys like Paxton who just needed a more comfortable arm slot. Totally unsubstantiated in terms of reportable evidence, but it seems to me like some of those have it/lose it guys (as far as command/control go) are just struggling with a particular identifiable “discomfort” in their delivery. It might be moving on the rubber, changing an arm slot, modifying lead foot plant...as you say, if it doesn’t work out no big loss. But if it does, Brasier 2.0.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Nov 22, 2018 2:44:53 GMT -5
I honestly think Colton Brewer could be a better option in 2019 than Workman and Thornburg. He has the better velocity and stuff really at this point. Thornburg shouldn't be here past December, unless it's on a spring training invite. Workman should be traded or maybe also non tendered.
The last spot in the bullpen could go down to Lakins or Brewer, that'll be a interesting and fun battle to watch in spring training.
Based off what I'm thinking for the 2019 bullpen, it should go like this-
Closer- (free agent) Setup- Barnes Setup- Brasier/(free agent) MRP- Brasier/(free agent) MRP- Hembree MRP- Maybe Brewer? Maybe Wright? Lakins? Long relief- Johnson or Velazquez (depending on injuries to the rotation)
On second thought, the Sox do have a ton of depth, Lakins could even break camp with the team out of spring training, so maybe they only need to sign one big free agent in the bullpen. The acquisition of Brewer kind of protected the Sox from overpaying a Joe Kelly for example.
To be on the safe side, the Sox should sign two arms. One of them should be in the rotation in Eovaldi, but we will see. This will protect the Sox from injuries out of spring training and still giving them the best roster construction possible. It would be unwise to rely on Wright being healthy as a starter out of spring training and Johnson and Hembree shouldn't be anything more than depth pieces in the rotation.
Hembree could also be a trade option by the time Feltman is ready to come up. Poyner is always a option if the Sox need a extra arm in the middle of the season too.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Nov 23, 2018 18:11:25 GMT -5
Crowd-sourced FA destination projections from MLB TradeRumors (see the main off-season thread for the links):
A lot of voters think they'll re-sign Kimbrel, but we know they're wrong. The next update will include Kelly, Miller, and Herrera, so we'll have a take on who they think we'll sign as relievers at that point. So far they have us in a virtual 3-way tie with the Astros and Yankees as the likeliest landing spot for Britton (11.0%), the third likeliest destination for Robertson after the Yankees and Mets (9.0%), and the 6th likeliest place for Ottavino (7.0%) and Familia (5.6%). However, if it's true that Robertson will only sign with a team close to his home -- something half the voters missed -- then the prediction is 18.2%. If it's true that he'll also only sign with a contender, it's 23.8%. If it's true that he'd love to close (something that he hasn't said but most people assume), it's much higher.
I think that the Sox are really sitting pretty at RHR in that Kelly has stated that returning is his clear first choice, while it's at worst a strong second for Robertson. I'd be really surprised if they didn't sign one or the other.
He says he's talked to six clubs, but that probably includes some that have called him (he's representing himself). If I'm the Phillies or Blue Jays, I call and ask if we're close enough (Philly is a 75 minute flight to Providence and 80 to Boston; Toronto is 95 to Boston but has no direct flights to Providence. But he can probably drive home from Boston in 90 minutes, whereas flying adds two or three hours).
Our problem is that we want to keep Kelly as a plan B if the Yankees outbid us for Robertson (not closing and being quite a bit further from home are the negatives, staying in a familiar situation the positive), but he'll get attention from other teams in the interim. It will help if Robertson can sign quickly. That his agent has only one client should speed that up.
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Post by ericmvan on Nov 23, 2018 19:03:03 GMT -5
I think he meant "best pair of pitches," since he was 3rd on the curve spin rate board.
The caveat is that Statcast was in just one park, and I bet that not every starter pitched there.
Still, that's really impressive.
Given that:
A) Hernandez looks like he can really help the MLB bullpen next year if needed. You could see him continuing his development as a starter all season an then being a force as a LHR in September and October.
and
B) They just won 108 games without having a dedicated LHR. Poyner and Scott spent 53 days on the roster between them. Johnson was a starter much of the time. They had no LHR in the pen at all between June 23 and July 11, and again from July 21 to the end of August (except for a week in mid-August where Velazquez subbed for BJ in the rotation and BJ made a single relief appearance).
... I think there's a real chance they sign Robertson and Kelly rather than one of them and a LHR. IOW, simply replace Kimbrel with Robertson.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Nov 23, 2018 19:26:23 GMT -5
Probably more of a depth/org type move. m Even as the Sox are talking with Eovaldi, Kelly, Kimbrel (who would be included in DDo’s statement that he would like to bring everyone back if possible) they are also talking with Britton, Robertson, Herrera, etc. and plenty of others. Brewer, Tapia and Greene indicate they may also be covering themselves in case they either trade from middle reliever depth,’and/or plan to use guys like Poyner, Lakins, Feltman in 2019. He was the Mets' #17, #9, then #19 prospect from 2012 to 2014; the year he was #9, some guy named de Grom was #11. That was a low-A season where he showed good command for the first time, but he lost it completely in 2013.
He was so unimpressive repeating A+ in 2014 that he got moved to the relief depth chart. He missed almost all of 2015 and a big chunk of 2016, so there's no guarantee he still throws as hard as he did.
The Reds signed him as an mlfa and he was OK in 2017 in AA and solid this year in AAA. He was actually very tough on RHB, so I bet they want to see if they can tweak his changeup, which would make him a useful up-and-down guy. I doubt he's a Brasier 2.0 candidate. but he is interesting.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Nov 23, 2018 23:10:34 GMT -5
Probably more of a depth/org type move. m Even as the Sox are talking with Eovaldi, Kelly, Kimbrel (who would be included in DDo’s statement that he would like to bring everyone back if possible) they are also talking with Britton, Robertson, Herrera, etc. and plenty of others. Brewer, Tapia and Greene indicate they may also be covering themselves in case they either trade from middle reliever depth,’and/or plan to use guys like Poyner, Lakins, Feltman in 2019. To be clear, they have not signed Greene.
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Post by jimoh on Nov 24, 2018 8:21:01 GMT -5
He was the Mets' #17, #9, then #19 prospect from 2012 to 2014; the year he was #9, some guy named de Grom was #11. That was a low-A season where he showed good command for the first time, but he lost it completely in 2013.
He was so unimpressive repeating A+ in 2014 that he got moved to the relief depth chart. He missed almost all of 2015 and a big chunk of 2016, so there's no guarantee he still throws as hard as he did.
The Reds signed him as an mlfa and he was OK in 2017 in AA and solid this year in AAA. He was actually very tough on RHB, so I bet they want to see if they can tweak his changeup, which would make him a useful up-and-down guy. I doubt he's a Brasier 2.0 candidate. but he is interesting.
This is just a casual mention and might be just a tralaticious report of his velocity, but it is from last month: redsminorleagues.com/2018/10/08/october-cincinnat-reds-minor-league-mailbag/October Cincinnati Reds minor league mailbag "Domingo Tapia brings big velocity, generally sitting 96-97 and routinely touches higher."
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Post by rjp313jr on Nov 24, 2018 9:59:34 GMT -5
Dealing with some personal stuff lately so I’m way behind on the messages and can’t catch up so I apologize if I’m repeating here.
I’ve seen some people say we “need” a lefty in the pen. Didn’t they just win a WS without one? I think it’s fair to say we would like one, but I would rather a right-handed pitcher who gets both out than a left handed who only dominates lefties and isn’t good versus righties.
It’s similar to the fact that we’d much prefer a right handed starter to round out the rotation than a 4th lefty. Although, I feel like the right handed starter is actually more important than the left handed reliever if I had to pick.
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Post by ericmvan on Nov 24, 2018 13:29:26 GMT -5
Dealing with some personal stuff lately so I’m way behind on the messages and can’t catch up so I apologize if I’m repeating here. I’ve seen some people say we “need” a lefty in the pen. Didn’t they just win a WS without one? I think it’s fair to say we would like one, but I would rather a right-handed pitcher who gets both out than a left handed who only dominates lefties and isn’t good versus righties. It’s similar to the fact that we’d much prefer a right handed starter to round out the rotation than a 4th lefty. Although, I feel like the right handed starter is actually more important than the left handed reliever if I had to pick. It's funny -- after focusing on the "one of each" solution for weeks, I came to the same realization last night (four posts previously).
I think it likely happens if Robertson can't resist playing so close to home and signs here at an affordable price. At that point, it will be hard to justify outbidding other teams for Britton and Miller when you can very likely get Joe "I'm Still on the Red Sox Roster in My Mind" Kelly to come back at below market value. The only exception would be if Miller want to play here, too (doesn't everybody?) and will sign a 1-year deal.
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Post by telson13 on Nov 24, 2018 23:59:45 GMT -5
I think he meant "best pair of pitches," since he was 3rd on the curve spin rate board.
The caveat is that Statcast was in just one park, and I bet that not every starter pitched there.
Still, that's really impressive.
Given that:
A) Hernandez looks like he can really help the MLB bullpen next year if needed. You could see him continuing his development as a starter all season an then being a force as a LHR in September and October.
and
B) They just won 108 games without having a dedicated LHR. Poyner and Scott spent 53 days on the roster between them. Johnson was a starter much of the time. They had no LHR in the pen at all between June 23 and July 11, and again from July 21 to the end of August (except for a week in mid-August where Velazquez subbed for BJ in the rotation and BJ made a single relief appearance).
... I think there's a real chance they sign Robertson and Kelly rather than one of them and a LHR. IOW, simply replace Kimbrel with Robertson. Probably so, although there’s certainly argument for each being possibly the best in its own right. He was sitting 97-98 from the left with his FB, meaning the combo of handedness, velo, and spin makes it an outstanding candidate for #1. And the CB has great shape and depth to go with spin (idk if he throws a traditional or spike, or what his velo is); as you say, it was only from one park, meaning the sampling isn’t great. I’d actually posit that he almost assuredly has the best *pair*, while arguing the individual merits is a lot fuzzier. But boy, was that good to see, and was it ever encouraging to realize that his superb performance was totally justified by the raw data. If he can just get to even average command and develop the CH to average, he could be a 2, I think. He’s young enough where I think there’s enough of a shot that he can do both to start getting excited. The stuff is just tremendous. Still probably more likely he goes to the ‘pen because of control/command, but he could be a monster there.
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Post by rjp313jr on Nov 25, 2018 7:57:23 GMT -5
I think he meant "best pair of pitches," since he was 3rd on the curve spin rate board.
The caveat is that Statcast was in just one park, and I bet that not every starter pitched there.
Still, that's really impressive.
Given that:
A) Hernandez looks like he can really help the MLB bullpen next year if needed. You could see him continuing his development as a starter all season an then being a force as a LHR in September and October.
and
B) They just won 108 games without having a dedicated LHR. Poyner and Scott spent 53 days on the roster between them. Johnson was a starter much of the time. They had no LHR in the pen at all between June 23 and July 11, and again from July 21 to the end of August (except for a week in mid-August where Velazquez subbed for BJ in the rotation and BJ made a single relief appearance).
... I think there's a real chance they sign Robertson and Kelly rather than one of them and a LHR. IOW, simply replace Kimbrel with Robertson. Probably so, although there’s certainly argument for each being possibly the best in its own right. He was sitting 97-98 from the left with his FB, meaning the combo of handedness, velo, and spin makes it an outstanding candidate for #1. And the CB has great shape and depth to go with spin (idk if he throws a traditional or spike, or what his velo is); as you say, it was only from one park, meaning the sampling isn’t great. I’d actually posit that he almost assuredly has the best *pair*, while arguing the individual merits is a lot fuzzier. But boy, was that good to see, and was it ever encouraging to realize that his superb performance was totally justified by the raw data. If he can just get to even average command and develop the CH to average, he could be a 2, I think. He’s young enough where I think there’s enough of a shot that he can do both to start getting excited. The stuff is just tremendous. Still probably more likely he goes to the ‘pen because of control/command, but he could be a monster there. So he had 2 individual pitches that ranked in the top 3.... others guys had multiple pitches within those top 10s... wouldn’t you rather be the guy who consistently had a high spin rate?
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Nov 25, 2018 8:00:56 GMT -5
Probably so, although there’s certainly argument for each being possibly the best in its own right. He was sitting 97-98 from the left with his FB, meaning the combo of handedness, velo, and spin makes it an outstanding candidate for #1. And the CB has great shape and depth to go with spin (idk if he throws a traditional or spike, or what his velo is); as you say, it was only from one park, meaning the sampling isn’t great. I’d actually posit that he almost assuredly has the best *pair*, while arguing the individual merits is a lot fuzzier. But boy, was that good to see, and was it ever encouraging to realize that his superb performance was totally justified by the raw data. If he can just get to even average command and develop the CH to average, he could be a 2, I think. He’s young enough where I think there’s enough of a shot that he can do both to start getting excited. The stuff is just tremendous. Still probably more likely he goes to the ‘pen because of control/command, but he could be a monster there. So he had 2 individual pitches that ranked in the top 3.... others guys had multiple pitches within those top 10s... wouldn’t you rather be the guy who consistently had a high spin rate? There was only one park with Stat Cast. You can't make that conclusion, especially for someone pitching in relief. There is no data to show how many pitches they tracked for each pitcher and there will be several who never pitched in front of the system and some that pitched multiple times.
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Post by telson13 on Nov 25, 2018 14:17:50 GMT -5
Probably so, although there’s certainly argument for each being possibly the best in its own right. He was sitting 97-98 from the left with his FB, meaning the combo of handedness, velo, and spin makes it an outstanding candidate for #1. And the CB has great shape and depth to go with spin (idk if he throws a traditional or spike, or what his velo is); as you say, it was only from one park, meaning the sampling isn’t great. I’d actually posit that he almost assuredly has the best *pair*, while arguing the individual merits is a lot fuzzier. But boy, was that good to see, and was it ever encouraging to realize that his superb performance was totally justified by the raw data. If he can just get to even average command and develop the CH to average, he could be a 2, I think. He’s young enough where I think there’s enough of a shot that he can do both to start getting excited. The stuff is just tremendous. Still probably more likely he goes to the ‘pen because of control/command, but he could be a monster there. So he had 2 individual pitches that ranked in the top 3.... others guys had multiple pitches within those top 10s... wouldn’t you rather be the guy who consistently had a high spin rate? The players with multiple appearances had that park as their home park, thus (many) more opportunities to get on the board. As Eric noted, there was only one park with statcast. It’s not about consistency in this case, it’s simply (apparently) vast differences in sampling size.
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