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Post by umassgrad2005 on Feb 13, 2019 15:55:57 GMT -5
Haha I'd like to trade my Tacoma for a Raptor or my Audi TT for a Porsche 911, my Wrangler for a Land Rover. It's nice to want. That seems like asking for a lot frankly. A starter good enough to start next year in this market? For those two? I like them, but both players value is crazy low right now. Can't wait to see how this plays out
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Feb 13, 2019 17:58:47 GMT -5
Haha I'd like to trade my Tacoma for a Raptor or my Audi TT for a Porsche 911, my Wrangler for a Land Rover. It's nice to want. That seems like asking for a lot frankly. A starter good enough to start next year in this market? For those two? I like them, but both players value is crazy low right now. Can't wait to see how this plays out It's also super weird to me that Leon is the guy they're committed to keeping around, given how long the organization has been developing the other two, and because Leon is not good.
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Post by jimed14 on Feb 13, 2019 18:08:10 GMT -5
No matter what numbers you look at for Leon, that's not what the Red Sox are looking at. A big part of catching ability is how well pitchers pitch to them. You'd think that Red Sox fans finally started understanding that you don't need a catcher to hit at all when David Ross took over for Salty in 2013. That hasn't gone away. I bet they value Leon is a top 10 catcher in baseball to their team. So if you think you're smarter than the Red Sox, be my guest. I'm not ready to start bitching about everything after last season quite yet.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Feb 13, 2019 18:47:47 GMT -5
AJ Ramos was a great setup man in the past. Since he was injured last year, why haven't the Sox signed a guy like him yet?
Maybe Ramos is waiting for a major league contract?
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Feb 13, 2019 19:06:55 GMT -5
No matter what numbers you look at for Leon, that's not what the Red Sox are looking at. A big part of catching ability is how well pitchers pitch to them. You'd think that Red Sox fans finally started understanding that you don't need a catcher to hit at all when David Ross took over for Salty in 2013. That hasn't gone away. I bet they value Leon is a top 10 catcher in baseball to their team. So if you think you're smarter than the Red Sox, be my guest. I'm not ready to start bitching about everything after last season quite yet. Or they are trying to move the guys that have more trade value. Those two have upside and years of control. Given what they want that makes sense. Like no point in trying to trade Leon unless you need a few cases of balls, maybe some helmets, heck maybe soda for the soda machine. Keep the guy with the lowest trade value that you like and trade one of the other guys. I don't think it has anything to do with them thinking he's a top 10 guy, not even close. Whatever his value with pitchers, his bat takes it away. They went more with Vazquez in the playoffs, which is crazy if Leon is a top 10 catcher.
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Post by telson13 on Feb 14, 2019 1:02:33 GMT -5
Haha I'd like to trade my Tacoma for a Raptor or my Audi TT for a Porsche 911, my Wrangler for a Land Rover. It's nice to want. That seems like asking for a lot frankly. A starter good enough to start next year in this market? For those two? I like them, but both players value is crazy low right now. Can't wait to see how this plays out It's also super weird to me that Leon is the guy they're committed to keeping around, given how long the organization has been developing the other two, and because Leon is not good. I think they’re sold on León as having a real, and probably outstanding, “pitcher ERA” skill. Its also why i like the León-Swihart tandem moving forward, because i think Vazquez is somewhat redundant with both, but Swihart and León have very complementary skillsets.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Feb 14, 2019 1:49:32 GMT -5
It's also super weird to me that Leon is the guy they're committed to keeping around, given how long the organization has been developing the other two, and because Leon is not good. I think they’re sold on León as having a real, and probably outstanding, “pitcher ERA” skill. Its also why i like the León-Swihart tandem moving forward, because i think Vazquez is somewhat redundant with both, but Swihart and León have very complementary skillsets. I don't disagree with you, but the issue is that the Sox would really need to go all in with Swihart. I have wanted to see him get that chance to play regularly. The issue is that if his defense isn't up to snuff or he isn't hitting enough to justify his defense or the pitching staff suddenly sees their ERAs jump a lot because they don't trust his game calling or whatever, then you're stuck making a regular out of Sandy Leon, which despite his excellent defense, is a horrifying thought. Say Swihart does blossom as hoped, then Leon is his perfect complement as a backup. The one thing you don't want is for Swihart to be a backup. That's a waste of his career/talent. If it's Swihart/Vazquez then there is less risk that if Swihart falters, you have a viable starting catcher in Vazquez. I know he didn't hit this past season, but I'd expect a .250 BA to go with a .300 OBP and .350 SA, which is acceptable if it came down to it. And if Swihart succeeds, Vazquez can do most of what Leon can do or at least I think so. I mean, Cora benched Leon despite his excellent defense because he struggles so badly at the plate. During the most important games of the season, Vazquez was given the catching assignments. I think that Cora thinks that Vazquez > Leon. Of course if Vazquez emerges and Swihart falters there's very little sense having Swihart on the roster. At that point you'd be searching for the next Sandy Leon to backup. I guess if you're not risk inclined then Swihart is the guy to go and you go with the defensive tandem of Vazquez/Leon and expect little to no offense. I guess if comes down to how confident are you in Swihart? Or maybe from Dombrowski's perspective, which one gives you the most value in a deal? Ultimately it makes sense that none of these guys are good enough to get a middle reliever who can possibly become high leverage, but it makes sense that Swihart or Vazquez could fetch a young backend starter with options. Leon has little value on the trade market, but if you want to mitigate Swihart's risk if you keep him, then you need Vazquez to back up so that you have a viable starter and that might outweigh what little you get from dealing Leon. It should be really fascinating to see which way this breaks. I would anticipate that Swihart will get a lot of time behind the plate in exhibition season so they can see how he's progressing defensively.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Feb 14, 2019 1:50:32 GMT -5
AJ Ramos was a great setup man in the past. Since he was injured last year, why haven't the Sox signed a guy like him yet? Maybe Ramos is waiting for a major league contract? Hasn't that guy had a lot of control issues in the past, though? The Sox might take a flier on him, but at this point he's more a name than a guy who performs.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Feb 14, 2019 5:44:48 GMT -5
AJ Ramos was a great setup man in the past. Since he was injured last year, why haven't the Sox signed a guy like him yet? Maybe Ramos is waiting for a major league contract? Hasn't that guy had a lot of control issues in the past, though? The Sox might take a flier on him, but at this point he's more a name than a guy who performs. Yeah his walks per nine innings is horrendous, but he was a solid 1-2 bWAR player from 2014-2016. He's 32, so he might have something left in the tank. Still a solid reliever and a improvement over Hembree if he can reach that value level again.
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Post by James Dunne on Feb 14, 2019 9:53:24 GMT -5
I think they’re sold on León as having a real, and probably outstanding, “pitcher ERA” skill. Its also why i like the León-Swihart tandem moving forward, because i think Vazquez is somewhat redundant with both, but Swihart and León have very complementary skillsets. I don't disagree with you, but the issue is that the Sox would really need to go all in with Swihart.\ I mean, if they think Swihart is good, they should have no issue going "all in" with going so far as making him a backup catcher. If they don't, then he should be gone. While I understand the mindset of trading the guy that they can get the best relative value for, at some point a World Series contender really should be picking the two players who it thinks are best (or at least fit the roster the best) and getting the best deal they can for the third one. If they're worried about "selling low" on Swihart, I get that... but they've spent the last four years or so undercutting his value. Another year of him getting 85 plate appearances as the third catcher and pinch-hitter in NL parks isn't going to recoup an iota of his value.
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Post by soxfanatic on Feb 14, 2019 10:04:01 GMT -5
AJ Ramos was a great setup man in the past. Since he was injured last year, why haven't the Sox signed a guy like him yet? Maybe Ramos is waiting for a major league contract? He had shoulder surgery (torn labrum) in June. He probably isn't pitching this season.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Feb 14, 2019 10:45:36 GMT -5
I don't disagree with you, but the issue is that the Sox would really need to go all in with Swihart.\ I mean, if they think Swihart is good, they should have no issue going "all in" with going so far as making him a backup catcher. If they don't, then he should be gone. While I understand the mindset of trading the guy that they can get the best relative value for, at some point a World Series contender really should be picking the two players who it thinks are best (or at least fit the roster the best) and getting the best deal they can for the third one. If they're worried about "selling low" on Swihart, I get that... but they've spent the last four years or so undercutting his value. Another year of him getting 85 plate appearances as the third catcher and pinch-hitter in NL parks isn't going to recoup an iota of his value. I hate to be so blunt about this, Blake Swihart is not a player. He's not a good defensive catcher, and the last time he was an above-average with the bat in any respect was 2014 in AA. He's a 26 year old with sub-replacement offensive projections and we're still not even really sure if he can catch. As bad as Vazquez was with the bat last year, he had a well-above average contact rate. He's hit decently in the major leagues in the past. None of this is to say that Vazquez isn't a terrible hitter, but there's something there. What can you point to with Swihart? I don't know why the Red Sox are making this a thing. Vazquez is a useful player, Leon is (maybe) a useful player, Swihart isn't.
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Post by soxfansince67 on Feb 14, 2019 12:02:36 GMT -5
Since this is the Bullpen thread, I will stay on topic, but make it more of a general statement. With last year's thrilling season and World Series victory - with watching how Cora operated all season long - I am not going to get caught up (yet!) on which deals they did and didn't make. It is kind of flip for me to say "in Cora I trust"....but, I actually do.
There are good arms in the pen, the next Brazier type possible at Pawtucket, Feltman, and future deals to be made. Last year we won it all with weaknesses at third, second, first and catcher and a roller coaster bullpen and some wild early season base running.
I know that coming off a victory is chilling me out, but I am actually so excited to see how this mostly unchanged group handles an attempt at a repeat.
It's all good....let's get the spring training games going, finalize the roster....then, before too long, PLAY BALL!
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Post by Addam603 on Feb 14, 2019 12:37:54 GMT -5
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Post by telson13 on Feb 14, 2019 17:07:53 GMT -5
I kinda wonder; he’s nearly exclusively CU with his FB (100%, per fangraphs; roughly 6:1 CU:4FB per baseballsavant). His cutter velocity is quite good (basically 93), which suggests to me that his 4FB should sit closer to 94-95. Per baseballsavant, it’s 92.4 CU/92.6 4FB. He clearly has bat-missing ability; the sample size is very small but his CU had a 30% whiff rate, which is terrific. I don’t put much stock in the other pitch data because of the sample size, but fwiw the 4FB was under 10% for whiffs. Yuck. His results last year were skewed pretty badly by the mid-400 BABIP and a grotesque mid-50s% strand rate. I really like him as a pickup. I think the one bone I’d pick (and one area they might work on) goes back to the FB thing. He throws three pitches all 5 mph apart, four if you count the 4FB. Idk what sort of extension or spin he has, but I’ve gotta wonder how effective his tunneling/sequencing is. I recall Bannister tinkering with Barnes last year to synchronize his FB/CB release point, because there was some “tell” in the difference, though small. Looks like the same might be said for Brewer: www.brooksbaseball.net/velo.php?player=605155&b_hand=-1&gFilt=&pFilt=FA|SI|FC|CU|SL|CS|KN|CH|FS|SB&time=month&minmax=ci&var=x0&s_type=2&startDate=03/30/2007&endDate=02/14/2019 (It appears the vertical release point difference is similar). His CB looks like a spike and he throws it hard; the SL (SSS caveat) appears to be just a harder version, with less drop but similar horizontal movement. Seems like there are a few things to work with there, including possibly expanding his velo range and maybe getting some more variable movement...everything seems similar in break, just with degree inversely related to velocity. His CU does seem to have some hop to it, which suggests to me he’s using a cut 4-seam grip. He’s going to be an interesting guy to watch this year.
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Post by sparkygian on Feb 15, 2019 2:25:24 GMT -5
No matter what numbers you look at for Leon, that's not what the Red Sox are looking at. A big part of catching ability is how well pitchers pitch to them. You'd think that Red Sox fans finally started understanding that you don't need a catcher to hit at all when David Ross took over for Salty in 2013. That hasn't gone away. I bet they value Leon is a top 10 catcher in baseball to their team. So if you think you're smarter than the Red Sox, be my guest. I'm not ready to start bitching about everything after last season quite yet. I seem to recall reading on this Forum that some members feel there should be a different type of rating system for catchers, other than just WAR. Obviously if Leon is a top 10 catcher, then Red Sox seem to be only entity feeling that way about him. There has to be a better way of rating catchers, that hasn't been figured out yet. It's been mentioned about the difference in ERA depending on who's catching, so is Leon's superior ERA difference enough to offset his terrible offense? Seems like Leon would obviously be great as a late-game defensive replacement. I have a hard time really feeling like the Sox have a true offensive juggernaut of a team. If I'm remembering correctly, it seems like Sox went through a handful of stretches last season where the offense was terrible for several games. If it hadn't been for the Sox' starting pitching last season being consistently good enough to keep games tight, things could have been a whole lot worse. Even though Sox finished near, or at the top in several offensive categories last season, I feel like that was more of a reflection of how productive the offense was when things were really clicking smoothly, rather than a consistently good offense -- enough to justify having a starting catcher who's woefully inept on offense, along with the other positions on this team that were inept or mediocre on offense. I like to think optimistically that JBJ will bounce back offensively, and Devers will get markedly better as well. Who knows about what to expect from 2b, especially when there really is a lot of uncertainty about who will actually be playing that position this season. First base is definitely not a position I expect a lot of offense to come from, so for me it really all boils down to how much production Sox get out of JDM, Betts, Bogaerts, and Benintendi as to how well the offense goes this season, imo. That seems like a bit of a precarious position to be in for Sox, esp. if one of those four goes on DL for any significant time. Therefore I hope Leon is strictly kept as a backup catcher, or Sale's personal catcher, and Swihart has a good preseason and wins the starting catcher position. It seems like Vazquez is definitely a decent starting catcher, but doesn't have as much offensive upside as Swihart, but he's definitely got more value/reliability than Swihart. I think he would also get most in return, along with helping reduce team salary strain if he is dealt. I like Vazquez, but I worry about the offense.
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Post by johnsilver52 on Feb 15, 2019 3:06:02 GMT -5
Haha I'd like to trade my Tacoma for a Raptor or my Audi TT for a Porsche 911, my Wrangler for a Land Rover. It's nice to want. That seems like asking for a lot frankly. A starter good enough to start next year in this market? For those two? I like them, but both players value is crazy low right now. Can't wait to see how this plays out It's also super weird to me that Leon is the guy they're committed to keeping around, given how long the organization has been developing the other two, and because Leon is not good. Leon, making 2.5m really has no value that I see. Vazquez and Swihart have that potential upside still. Would prefer to hang on to Vazquez and DFA Leon end of camp, or bite the bullet and trade Swihart for what would probably be pennies on the dollar instead. Vazquez is as of now the best combo OF-DF
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Post by jimed14 on Feb 15, 2019 13:32:20 GMT -5
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Feb 15, 2019 13:38:30 GMT -5
Josh Smith doesn't look interesting on the back of the baseball card, I didn't even know who he was until you popped up that tweet. He's 29 too. Not holding out too much hope on that one.
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Post by jimed14 on Feb 15, 2019 13:46:01 GMT -5
Josh Smith doesn't look interesting on the back of the baseball card, I didn't even know who he was until you popped up that tweet. He's 29 too. Not holding out too much hope on that one. He had a pretty great year in AAA last year. I had the exact same reaction to Brasier.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Feb 15, 2019 15:05:40 GMT -5
Smith (along with the other Josh Smith, which compounded the issue) was used as a true swingman in Pawtucket last year. That can make stats hard to navigate versus whatever they saw from him in person.
That said, my guess is it's more Marcus Walden than Ryan Brasier.
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Post by James Dunne on Feb 15, 2019 15:13:43 GMT -5
Smith (along with the other Josh Smith, which compounded the issue) was used as a true swingman in Pawtucket last year. That can make stats hard to navigate versus whatever they saw from him in person. That said, my guess is it's more Marcus Walden than Ryan Brasier. That's good though, right? I mean, it'd be better if he were the new Brasier, obviously. But the new Marcus Walden isn't useless either right now. The Red Sox probably don't want Lakins just going up and down the shuttle based on need - possibly the same for Brewer. So someone like Smith emerging as the 2019 "come up when we have an injury or yesterday's starter went short, get back on the bus tomorrow, and keep a good attitude about it" would be pretty useful. EDIT: Wait, I thought Carson Smith was broken? McCaffrey's tweet has him in the bullpen mix?
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Post by jimed14 on Feb 15, 2019 15:15:43 GMT -5
Smith (along with the other Josh Smith, which compounded the issue) was used as a true swingman in Pawtucket last year. That can make stats hard to navigate versus whatever they saw from him in person. That said, my guess is it's more Marcus Walden than Ryan Brasier. I'm so confused about which one is which. Was that tweet talking about the Josh Smith born 8/7/1987 drafted by the Reds or Josh D Smith born 10/11/1989 drafted by the Pirates? Josh D Smith's numbers were much less impressive.
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Post by James Dunne on Feb 15, 2019 15:16:18 GMT -5
Josh D. Smith signed with Cleveland.
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Post by jimed14 on Feb 15, 2019 15:22:02 GMT -5
Josh D. Smith signed with Cleveland. Fangraphs is even confused. They have the wrong Josh Smith signing with Cleveland. In any event, a 4.75 K/BB ratio in AAA might mean he's worth a few more looks.
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