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Post by telson13 on Nov 25, 2018 14:18:36 GMT -5
Oops, I was late on that one. Thanks phils.
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Post by telson13 on Nov 26, 2018 0:25:56 GMT -5
I think the Sox ought to look into Zach McAllister. His velocity was still excellent last year, but his BABIP was bad and his LOB rate (just north of 60%) was truly atrocious...big regression candidate. He threw more strikes and his walk rate was way down, but his K rate was too. His IFFB rate was down, too, and he gave up more hard contact. But the interesting things are that: 1) he had really no changes in his contact/swing rates, maybe a even a few more swings outside the zone, where his contact was at or below career norms, so that wasn’t the problem, 2) his SwStr rate was totally unchanged, and 3) he started throwing a sinker. Idk if that was part of the issue, but I might look into it. FWIW per baseballsavant his EV was basically unchanged and launch angle actually a little lower, but his xBA was up from .240s to .275. So maybe some bad GB luck and more line drives (his xSLG was up quite a bit, about double the change in BA, so hard-hit grounders can’t account for a good portion of it; his GB rate WAS up vs the previous two years). But his xwOBA was more or less unchanged. He seems like a candidate for sequencing issues and maybe some changes in FB approach and/or increased CB rate. But a lot of the data suggest that there’s quite a bit of bad luck rolled in there, be it pitch or batter sequencing and batted-ball. His traditional stats look atrocious, and peripherals weren’t good either. But the underlying data are encouraging enough (and his previous effectiveness along with the inherent volatility of relievers) that he’s definitely a guy I think would be worth a 1- or 1+1 incentive-laden pillow deal. I think he’s a strong candidate to bounce back, especially with a good OF defense behind him, and a pitching coach/advisor tandem in Levangie/Bannister who could probably help refine his approach. He was very solid 2015-2017...great buy-low opportunity for a team that could use some bullpen depth and some minor upgrades at several spots.
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Post by telson13 on Nov 26, 2018 2:52:36 GMT -5
Also, and I know several people have mentioned him, but the more I look into Joakim Soria, the more I like him as an option. His SwStr rate has been climbing for several years, and 14% is very good. His velocity has held steady in the 92s during that time. He also has seen a pretty marked drop in Z-contact, and a bump in swings outside the zone. That’s a great combo. He basically halved his CH usage, from over 30 to 15%. It was a good pitch for him in 2017 but one he struggled with last year. Probably explains the BIG drop in GB rate from 40s (over 50% in 2017) to just 36% last year. With the Sox outfield, though, I think it’s much less an issue (helps that LHB are facing the big RF in Fenway, not to mention the JBJ-Mookie combo). His HR rate has stayed low for two years and his strand rate has been a bit low, too, so the ERA might be a little inflated. www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=6941&position=PTo top it off, he had the lowest qualified EV against in baseball last year, meaning he’s getting a LOT of weak contact (and fooling hitters) despite the FB tendencies (83.6 mph). baseballsavant.mlb.com/statcast_leaderboard?year=2018&abs=150&player_type=pitcherMight be a sneaky-good closer on a two-year deal that they could move deadline 2020 if Lakins and Feltman pan out this year/early next and Barnes keeps improving. Didn’t check to see his fg FA contract projection, but I’d think on a 2-year (he’s kind of in the Robertson range, age/performance-wise) at $8-10M per he’d be worth it.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Nov 26, 2018 3:00:45 GMT -5
I like Robertson, Miller, Britton over Soria though.
If Soria is your 2019 closer to start the year, something probably went horribly wrong in free agency this year.
If Soria is signed for like one year at 5 million as a second bullpen option after you signed one of the arms of Miller, Robertson, and Britton, then it might not be a half bad idea. I'd probably take Kelly over Soria in a coin flip though.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Nov 26, 2018 4:21:59 GMT -5
Does anyone think Lakins breaks camp with the team in 2019?
The more I think about it, the more I think it's a huge possibility. You could put off a promotion until late April, but chances are he gets optioned a bunch of times the next 2 years for a variety of reasons.
I don't see the need to delay a relievers service time by the end of April for this reason alone.
By the way, changed my avatar to Lakins, number 53. Thornburg is about to be nontendered and I forgot to change the avatar for a while. Lakins is one of my favorites of the Sox prospects now. I think he has just as much of a chance at being a future closer as Feltman and he's more far along and advanced in the game than Feltman. I love Darwinzon Hernandez and think at the very least he could be the next Andrew Miller out of the bullpen, but he's a top 5 prospect and will get plenty of love here regardless.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Nov 26, 2018 4:33:37 GMT -5
It makes little sense for a rookie to break camp unless they don't expect him to stick. 3 weeks later is a different question though. I'd say he has a chance if there are options available in the pen but we usually have a lot of arms that aren't optionable.
It's better to burn an option than a year of service time.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Nov 26, 2018 4:52:38 GMT -5
I was only asking because I think he could be one of the 6 best arms in the bullpen right now (with no free agent signings). I think he could already be better then-
Workman Poyner Velazquez Robby Scott (obviously)
He even has a chance to be better than Colton Brewer out of camp.
I don't know how Workman survives on this roster with all these high octane talented arms in the bullpen out spring training competing for a spot. His peripherals were bad last year and his stuff (mostly fastball) was diminished from early on his career.
Side note- Why is Robby Scott still around? That's a name that makes me queezy thinking about him.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Nov 26, 2018 6:13:19 GMT -5
Scott is around because he has options.
Poyner and Walden are examples of pitchers that broke camp but weren't expected to stay on the roster for the entire year. Neither used up a years service time, they still have 6.
Lakins, Feltman and Hernandez are examples of pitchers unlikely to break camp with the Sox no matter how good they look in the spring.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Nov 26, 2018 6:33:20 GMT -5
I was only asking because I think he could be one of the 6 best arms in the bullpen right now (with no free agent signings). I think he could already be better then- Workman Poyner Velazquez Robby Scott (obviously) He even has a chance to be better than Colton Brewer out of camp. I don't know how Workman survives on this roster with all these high octane talented arms in the bullpen out spring training competing for a spot. His peripherals were bad last year and his stuff (mostly fastball) was diminished from early on his career. Side note- Why is Robby Scott still around? That's a name that makes me queezy thinking about him. And.... Right on queue: www.masslive.com/expo/sports/erry-2018/11/43b24e841f6978/michael-chavis-travis-lakins-a.html
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Post by James Dunne on Nov 26, 2018 9:03:56 GMT -5
Robby Scott looked great with Pawtucket last year. Not really sure what happened to him when he was up, if it's small sample mess (he faced only 40 batters), the talent gap, or some other weirdness. He was solid in 2017 in the majors as well. I thought he looked better than Poyner with Pawtucket, but obviously not at the next level. He was murder on Triple-A lefties, with a 35.3% K rate and only one extra-base hit allowed (a double) against 68 batters. But then in the majors, he faced 15 lefties and hit five of them, which is crazy - only David Price hit more LHBs (and Porcello also hit five). For someone who profiles as a LOOGY to blow up like that is worrisome, but there's enough promise there that I'm holding on.
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Post by sarasoxer on Nov 26, 2018 10:57:04 GMT -5
But can we please get a power lefty in the pen??
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Post by jimed14 on Nov 26, 2018 11:47:45 GMT -5
Does anyone think Lakins breaks camp with the team in 2019? The more I think about it, the more I think it's a huge possibility. You could put off a promotion until late April, but chances are he gets optioned a bunch of times the next 2 years for a variety of reasons. I don't see the need to delay a relievers service time by the end of April for this reason alone. By the way, changed my avatar to Lakins, number 53. Thornburg is about to be nontendered and I forgot to change the avatar for a while. Lakins is one of my favorites of the Sox prospects now. I think he has just as much of a chance at being a future closer as Feltman and he's more far along and advanced in the game than Feltman. I love Darwinzon Hernandez and think at the very least he could be the next Andrew Miller out of the bullpen, but he's a top 5 prospect and will get plenty of love here regardless. If Thornburg is about to be non-tendered, why is he still taking up a 40 man spot? Smith was non-tendered and released. IMO, they're going to see what Thornburg can do with a full offseason of strengthening.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Nov 26, 2018 12:07:08 GMT -5
Does anyone think Lakins breaks camp with the team in 2019? The more I think about it, the more I think it's a huge possibility. You could put off a promotion until late April, but chances are he gets optioned a bunch of times the next 2 years for a variety of reasons. I don't see the need to delay a relievers service time by the end of April for this reason alone. By the way, changed my avatar to Lakins, number 53. Thornburg is about to be nontendered and I forgot to change the avatar for a while. Lakins is one of my favorites of the Sox prospects now. I think he has just as much of a chance at being a future closer as Feltman and he's more far along and advanced in the game than Feltman. I love Darwinzon Hernandez and think at the very least he could be the next Andrew Miller out of the bullpen, but he's a top 5 prospect and will get plenty of love here regardless. If Thornburg is about to be non-tendered, why is he still taking up a 40 man spot? Smith was non-tendered and released. IMO, they're going to see what Thornburg can do with a full offseason of strengthening. Smith was outrighted and elected to become a free agent. The deadline to tender contracts isn't until Friday. Two different processes.
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Post by jimed14 on Nov 26, 2018 12:51:51 GMT -5
If Thornburg is about to be non-tendered, why is he still taking up a 40 man spot? Smith was non-tendered and released. IMO, they're going to see what Thornburg can do with a full offseason of strengthening. Smith was outrighted and elected to become a free agent. The deadline to tender contracts isn't until Friday. Two different processes. But still, why would they waste a 40 man spot on him right now if they knew they're not tendering him? I mean that's why they outrighted Smith, right? When you don't tender someone, they become a free agent, right?
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Nov 26, 2018 12:59:02 GMT -5
Smith was outrighted and elected to become a free agent. The deadline to tender contracts isn't until Friday. Two different processes. But still, why would they waste a 40 man spot on him right now if they knew they're not tendering him? I mean that's why they outrighted Smith, right? When you don't tender someone, they become a free agent, right? Yes they become a free agent. They probably had the room on the 40 man roster and didn't feel the need to non tender him until the date where you have to nontender players. MLB free agency takes a long time and no one besides Pearce has signed a contract in all of MLB. So you have plenty of time in that regard to create space for free agents. This is one of the ways to do it. This is all my guess of course.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Nov 26, 2018 13:07:42 GMT -5
I also wonder if Workman is a non tender candidate. Probably not, but he's very replaceable at the moment. They probably keep him for depth at this point through spring training.
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Post by jimed14 on Nov 26, 2018 13:13:21 GMT -5
I honestly don't think they'll non-tender anyone. They would have made more deals similar to the Colton Brewer trade with the extra 40-man spots that they would have had if they planned on non-tendering anyone.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Nov 26, 2018 14:17:22 GMT -5
I honestly don't think they'll non-tender anyone. They would have made more deals similar to the Colton Brewer trade with the extra 40-man spots that they would have had if they planned on non-tendering anyone. Why? Not like there are games next week for which they need to field a roster. The answer to most of the above questions is that it's a long offseason.
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Post by Smittyw on Nov 26, 2018 14:34:01 GMT -5
Wasn't the difference that Smith had to be removed from the 60-day DL at the end of the season, necessitating either placing him on the 40-man at that point or outrighting him?
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Nov 26, 2018 15:18:50 GMT -5
That's correct. Great point.
Elsewhere, the Royals claimed Conner Greene, who was mentioned above.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Nov 26, 2018 18:36:38 GMT -5
I also wonder if Workman is a non tender candidate. Probably not, but he's very replaceable at the moment. They probably keep him for depth at this point through spring training. Why Would they non-tender him? You could trade him in two seconds if you wanted too for value! He's been rather good as a back-end bullpen arm the last two years. He'd get more as a free agent then he will get in arbitration this year.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Nov 26, 2018 18:40:31 GMT -5
I also wonder if Workman is a non tender candidate. Probably not, but he's very replaceable at the moment. They probably keep him for depth at this point through spring training. Why Would they non-tender him? You could trade him in two seconds if you wanted too for value! He's been rather good as a back-end bullpen arm the last two years. He'd get more as a free agent then he will get in arbitration this year. Meh, you trade him and you're probably getting a mid level type. I can see Workman getting easily replaced now that he has no options available.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Nov 26, 2018 18:44:54 GMT -5
Why Would they non-tender him? You could trade him in two seconds if you wanted too for value! He's been rather good as a back-end bullpen arm the last two years. He'd get more as a free agent then he will get in arbitration this year. Meh, you trade him and you're probably getting a mid level type. I can see Workman getting easily replaced now that he has no options available. Maybe he gets replaced, but you just don't non-tender guys if you can get value back.
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Post by rjp313jr on Nov 26, 2018 20:30:40 GMT -5
Meh, you trade him and you're probably getting a mid level type. I can see Workman getting easily replaced now that he has no options available. Maybe he gets replaced, but you just don't non-tender guys if you can get value back. No it’s not worth the paperwork if all you’re getting is a midlevel lottery ticket type.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Nov 26, 2018 21:13:03 GMT -5
Maybe he gets replaced, but you just don't non-tender guys if you can get value back. No it’s not worth the paperwork if all you’re getting is a midlevel lottery ticket type. Lol nice sarcasm RJP. It's sort of like the Bryce Brentz argument last year. "You got to protect Brentz or you're losing out on value." Meanwhile after Brentz gets traded from the Sox for cash only I believe, he gets DFA'D once or twice after. I just can see that happening to Workman once he leaves the Sox. Bouncing from one team to the next just trying to survive in the league.
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