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Post by jimed14 on Nov 26, 2018 21:43:47 GMT -5
No it’s not worth the paperwork if all you’re getting is a midlevel lottery ticket type. Lol nice sarcasm RJP. It's sort of like the Bryce Brentz argument last year. "You got to protect Brentz or you're losing out on value." Meanwhile after Brentz gets traded from the Sox for cash only I believe, he gets DFA'D once or twice after. I just can see that happening to Workman once he leaves the Sox. Bouncing from one team to the next just trying to survive in the league. The difference is that Workman has been a useful MLB player.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Nov 26, 2018 21:58:47 GMT -5
Lol nice sarcasm RJP. It's sort of like the Bryce Brentz argument last year. "You got to protect Brentz or you're losing out on value." Meanwhile after Brentz gets traded from the Sox for cash only I believe, he gets DFA'D once or twice after. I just can see that happening to Workman once he leaves the Sox. Bouncing from one team to the next just trying to survive in the league. The difference is that Workman has been a useful MLB player. He was worth 1.4 wins bWAR and 0 wins fWAR the past 2 years. I don't want to bash Workman and someone might value him to the point of giving up something interesting, but I don't see much given up myself. Still he is a 2 time world champion here and I wish the guy the best if he bounces around.
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Post by James Dunne on Nov 26, 2018 22:14:48 GMT -5
Yeah, I could see Workman getting DFA or traded in spring training or whatever if they're out of roster space, but he's definitely worth tendering a contract to.
1.4 bWAR over 80 innings is good. Like, not just "might as well tender him a contract" but like, an above average major league pitcher. Even if he's closer to his peripherals and he's at or near replacement level, there's no reason to non-tender him at what will be very short money. Not saying they need to keep him over someone better, but he's also not worth just cutting for the shiny new toy.
If Workman put up a higher WAR (wherever he ends up) in 2019 than Brewer, Lakins, and Feltman, I wouldn't be shocked by any means.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Nov 27, 2018 0:39:17 GMT -5
I'd be shocked if he was DFA, he's a decent enough reliever with team control at a reasonable cost. There will be teams that don't have his equivalent, he has value.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Nov 27, 2018 7:50:21 GMT -5
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Post by rjp313jr on Nov 27, 2018 9:25:55 GMT -5
No it’s not worth the paperwork if all you’re getting is a midlevel lottery ticket type. Lol nice sarcasm RJP. It's sort of like the Bryce Brentz argument last year. "You got to protect Brentz or you're losing out on value." Meanwhile after Brentz gets traded from the Sox for cash only I believe, he gets DFA'D once or twice after. I just can see that happening to Workman once he leaves the Sox. Bouncing from one team to the next just trying to survive in the league. This is the point tho. An MLB team with any competence doesn’t just throw away an asset. If you don’t want him, and he can be traded even if just for minor league filler, then you trade him. It’s just foolish not to. I don’t think they’d even DFA him come spring unless he’s so bad and his stuff disappears. Even then, he’s get dealt.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Nov 27, 2018 14:26:23 GMT -5
Getting lost in all the Hernandez fanfare seems to be Mike Shawaryn. 9 games only 1 start and it must have been very short. 12 and 2/3 innings 15 strikeouts and a 1.18 whip.
Do we have any reports on what his velocity looks like in shorter stints?
He might not be the hardest throwing, but he gets a ton of swing and misses and seems to almost be the forgotten man. Given reports about his velocity drop in starts, he seems a much better option in the bullpen than Hernandez. A scout saying Hernandez can be a #2 starter in the bigs soon just made my day! It still baffles me why with his upside he gets no love, yet Owens was such a highly rated prospect. I loved Owens, but he never came close to the raw stuff or upside of Hernandez. A scout thinks he can be a #2 starter soon in the bigs and he's not a top 100 prospect?
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Nov 27, 2018 14:40:15 GMT -5
The key word is "A" scout.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Nov 27, 2018 15:50:56 GMT -5
The key word is "A" scout. I get that, but most people have said for years now he has the best arm and "stuff" of any pitcher in our system. Which is saying something when you have guys like Groome, Houck, Mata, etc.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Nov 27, 2018 17:35:56 GMT -5
The key word is "A" scout. Actually I think it wasn't a scout but rather somebody in the Red Sox organization in the lower minors, perhaps a coach or somebody who thinks Hernandez should have a chance at becoming a starter and that he could be a #2 and soon.
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jimoh
Veteran
Posts: 3,947
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Post by jimoh on Nov 27, 2018 18:02:46 GMT -5
The key word is "A" scout. Actually I think it wasn't a scout but rather somebody in the Red Sox organization in the lower minors, perhaps a coach or somebody who thinks Hernandez should have a chance at becoming a starter and that he could be a #2 and soon. From the story cited above: "But Gammons also tweeted in August that one minor league coordinator told him, "I hope they don't put him in the pen. He can be a number two power starter in the big leagues, and quickly.""
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Nov 27, 2018 18:43:05 GMT -5
As for my comment, it's not that I'm not impressed with Darwinzon, I just think it's premature to call him a Top 100 prospect. I might feel different when he shows better control.
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Post by telson13 on Nov 28, 2018 1:32:41 GMT -5
Why Would they non-tender him? You could trade him in two seconds if you wanted too for value! He's been rather good as a back-end bullpen arm the last two years. He'd get more as a free agent then he will get in arbitration this year. Meh, you trade him and you're probably getting a mid level type. I can see Workman getting easily replaced now that he has no options available. I agree with UMass tho...Workman is somewhat fungible, but he’s probably a guy who gets at least $2-3M more as a FA. So he’s roughly $4-5M in excess value with three control years. I think they could get a 40 FV prospect. Why not trade him for a low-A or short season guy with some upside? I don’t think it makes any sense to non-tender him, unless they *really* need the roster spot for, say, Kikuchi (OK I’m just dreaming here). Worst case they holld onto him until ST, and move him when someone invariably has an injury. I think they should be doing everything they can to replenish their system, including making smaller moves like this.
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Post by telson13 on Nov 28, 2018 2:05:34 GMT -5
The key word is "A" scout. I get that, but most people have said for years now he has the best arm and "stuff" of any pitcher in our system. Which is saying something when you have guys like Groome, Houck, Mata, etc. And, that was very clearly confirmed by both results and statcast data in the AFL. He reminds me of Sean Newcombe, only with arguably better stuff. He’s certainly got better velocity and spin on his 4-seam, and his CB is probably just as good (Newcomb’s is quite good). Their history of control issues is remarkably similar. Newcomb’s CH was pretty borderline at a similar age (Darwinzon will be a half year younger starting AA next year than Newcomb was). And Darwinzon added a slider last year, which was apparently inconsistent but flashed very well (I think Speier wrote about it). So they both have the 4FB-CB-SL-CH repertoire, with similar grades: www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=sa828318&position=Pwww.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=16943&position=PNewcomb didn’t have the SL and got a lower present command grade if you look at their fg scouting. But, oddly, he got a higher FV grade. Given the AFL data, and Hernandez’s total obliteration of the competition in a hitter’s league, not to mention the superior velocity and outstanding 4-seam spin, I don’t think it’s a stretch AT ALL to say he’s probably superior to Newcomb at a similar stage in their development. I’d be surprised if he wasn’t a 50 FV in the BOARD update this winter. And given Newcomb’s arrival at 23-24, and relative success (1.9 fWAR last year in 164 innings), I’m very excited about Hernandez. I think his ETA as a starter is early 2019 (a la ERod, maybe mid-May), and I think he provides 3/4 results pretty quickly, with 2 or (if he can get to 50 command) 1a upside. There’s a LOT to like there. Btw, I agree with you about Shawaryn. I think he’s probably going to be a serviceable 4/5, but if he gets the CH to the point he can neutralize LHB, he could be a 3, or just an absolute horrorshow RHR who eats righties alive with that arm slot. His arm slot is like Sale from the right, and the SL could be brutal. He’s durable, so as long as he can get lefties out reasonably well, he could be a real dark horse weapon. Multi-inning guy. In the back of my mind, among dreams like someday discovering my telekinetic powers, Shawaryn becomes a RH equivalent to Josh Hader.
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Post by rjp313jr on Nov 28, 2018 9:27:51 GMT -5
The key word is "A" scout. Actually I think it wasn't a scout but rather somebody in the Red Sox organization in the lower minors, perhaps a coach or somebody who thinks Hernandez should have a chance at becoming a starter and that he could be a #2 and soon. What’s the difference between a scouts opinion on a player and a coaches? It’s not like a scout is more qualified to evaluate a player than a coach. I’m just trying to figure out the point of what you’re saying here..
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Post by James Dunne on Nov 28, 2018 9:34:49 GMT -5
Getting lost in all the Hernandez fanfare seems to be Mike Shawaryn. 9 games only 1 start and it must have been very short. 12 and 2/3 innings 15 strikeouts and a 1.18 whip. Do we have any reports on what his velocity looks like in shorter stints? He might not be the hardest throwing, but he gets a ton of swing and misses and seems to almost be the forgotten man. Given reports about his velocity drop in starts, he seems a much better option in the bullpen than Hernandez. A scout saying Hernandez can be a #2 starter in the bigs soon just made my day! It still baffles me why with his upside he gets no love, yet Owens was such a highly rated prospect. I loved Owens, but he never came close to the raw stuff or upside of Hernandez. A scout thinks he can be a #2 starter soon in the bigs and he's not a top 100 prospect?So just to circle back to this, I don't really understand the question you're asking. If someone thinks Darwinzon Hernandez is a #2 starter in the majors soon, that same someone probably also thinks Hernandez is a Top 100 prospect. It's not like there's this consensus that Hernandez is that, and they are not rating him on their lists accordingly - it's just that one scout disagrees with the industry consensus. If they think he's a future #2 in short order, they probably also have him as the #1 prospect in the system. Disagreement is good, sometimes the dissenting voice is right. But it doesn't mean other people should twist their list because "a scout thinks." There are lots of good scouts, and every so often one picks up what others do not. There are also writers who will seek out scouts until they find a single one who confirms their pre-existing beliefs, and then report on that finding as if it is a neutral report.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Nov 28, 2018 12:29:30 GMT -5
Actually I think it wasn't a scout but rather somebody in the Red Sox organization in the lower minors, perhaps a coach or somebody who thinks Hernandez should have a chance at becoming a starter and that he could be a #2 and soon. What’s the difference between a scouts opinion on a player and a coaches? It’s not like a scout is more qualified to evaluate a player than a coach. I’m just trying to figure out the point of what you’re saying here.. I think the point was more that it was coming from within the org. And for what it's worth, the opinions of any single talent evaluator need to be taken with a grain of salt. If the evaluator sees a guy once on a particularly good or bad day, his opinion will be skewed. I recall, for example, hearing of a scout who was throwing 80s on Barnes in Greenville. If Gammons talks to that scout, suddenly we're here talking about whether he's the org's next ace.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Nov 28, 2018 12:33:56 GMT -5
but most people have said for years now he has the best arm and "stuff" of any pitcher in our system. Which is saying something when you have guys like Groome, Houck, Mata, etc. I don't believe this is true at all, fwiw.
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Post by soxin8 on Nov 28, 2018 16:32:18 GMT -5
Getting lost in all the Hernandez fanfare seems to be Mike Shawaryn. 9 games only 1 start and it must have been very short. 12 and 2/3 innings 15 strikeouts and a 1.18 whip. Do we have any reports on what his velocity looks like in shorter stints? He might not be the hardest throwing, but he gets a ton of swing and misses and seems to almost be the forgotten man. Given reports about his velocity drop in starts, he seems a much better option in the bullpen than Hernandez. A scout saying Hernandez can be a #2 starter in the bigs soon just made my day! It still baffles me why with his upside he gets no love, yet Owens was such a highly rated prospect. I loved Owens, but he never came close to the raw stuff or upside of Hernandez. A scout thinks he can be a #2 starter soon in the bigs and he's not a top 100 prospect? When I saw him this year in Hartford on May 4th, he was 96 in the first, 95 in the second and 94 in the third.
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Post by telson13 on Nov 29, 2018 0:15:45 GMT -5
The key word is "A" scout. Actually I think it wasn't a scout but rather somebody in the Red Sox organization in the lower minors, perhaps a coach or somebody who thinks Hernandez should have a chance at becoming a starter and that he could be a #2 and soon. Thought this scouting report from 2080 (three separate viewings) was useful to understand what Hernandez has to work with, and on. I was encouraged about the CH, it’s better than I thought. And apparently he’s using the SL over the CB, which surprised me; the video I’ve seen in the past showed a pretty good curve, though that was probably selected for ideal examples. But near-elite FB (especially given his spin rate and high velo), and a present avg-better pair of secondaries is great news. Looks like the command issues have a lot to do with effort in his delivery. Idk how well, or easily, that can be smoothed out. 2080baseball.com/reports/darwinzon-hernandez/
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Nov 29, 2018 13:12:13 GMT -5
Reports on Hernandez's breaking pitches have been maddeningly inconsistent. I'm going to try and pin that down once I get a minute one of these days.
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Post by iakovos11 on Nov 29, 2018 13:19:11 GMT -5
Reports on Hernandez's breaking pitches have been maddeningly inconsistent. I'm going to try and pin that down once I get a minute one of these days. If you ask for a continuance, you'll have the time. No doubt the judge would be sympathetic.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Nov 29, 2018 13:52:53 GMT -5
I might be in the minority here but I hope the Sox don't non-tender Tyler Thornburg. 2019 is not the season the Sox are trying to duck under any luxury tax lines so I don't see what the huge gamble would be if the Red Sox did wind up going to arbitration with Thornburg.
He'll have another year of health under his belt. Maybe by midseason he can get back a lot of what he is was with Milwaukee. If so you have another solid option for your late inning relief in the bullpen instead of possibly having to look to acquire it. He certainly won't break the bank or preclude the Sox from getting another pitcher or two. If he struggles you can release him or non-tender him next December.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Nov 29, 2018 15:57:20 GMT -5
I might be in the minority here but I hope the Sox don't non-tender Tyler Thornburg. 2019 is not the season the Sox are trying to duck under any luxury tax lines so I don't see what the huge gamble would be if the Red Sox did wind up going to arbitration with Thornburg. He'll have another year of health under his belt. Maybe by midseason he can get back a lot of what he is was with Milwaukee. If so you have another solid option for your late inning relief in the bullpen instead of possibly having to look to acquire it. He certainly won't break the bank or preclude the Sox from getting another pitcher or two. If he struggles you can release him or non-tender him next December. I haven't seen an actual study so I could be totally wrong about this, but it seems like the comeback from thoracic outlet is a little more gradual than other pitcher injuries. Not the surgery/rehab process, but I feel like there's more of a "hangover" year once they're actually pitching again. Matt Harvey and Tyson ross both had it in 2016 (I remember because I had them as co-aces on a fantasy team that year, lol), came back in 2017 and were awful, then both had fairly decent 2018 seasons. Given the upside, I think it makes a lot of sense to give Thornburg one more year to return to form.
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Post by jimed14 on Nov 29, 2018 16:07:13 GMT -5
Thornburg needs at least one full offseason to prepare for the regular season. Just about every pitcher ever would struggle after a year and a half off. At the ~$2.3 million salary, why wouldn't they take a chance? It's not that much money and there's a lot more upside than downside. Worse case is that it's a waste of $2.3 million or about 1% of their total payroll. Now is not the time to start nickel and diming. That's next winter.
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