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Post by telson13 on Jul 27, 2019 20:28:04 GMT -5
I really like Hernandez as a 6th/7th inning reliever. There are going to be growing pains, but his stuff is legitimate and has good movement. The investment made in his development in Boston this year should pay off big next year, I think you’re selling him short. I think he’s high-leverage all the way (or maybe you meant that, a leverage floater?) His stuff is absolutely beastly. I have mild concerns about the walks, and I might be reticent to put him into a bases-loaded situation, but 2nd-3rd with nobody out? Heh...he’ll blow the first guy away, walk a dude, and get a second pitch DP after the batter flails at strike 1. Or he’ll just whiff the side. Batters have zero idea of what to do with his FB combo of spin, angle, velo, and movement. He’s got Hembree’s FB from a nastier angle, and Hernandez’s SL is a weapon and not a (down the) pipe dream.
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Post by telson13 on Jul 27, 2019 20:33:06 GMT -5
If Chavis continues to adjust and gets better at 2b, and Casas continues to rake, in 2-3 years they could have a 110-120 HR infield, with solid defense.
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Post by Smittyw on Jul 27, 2019 21:48:31 GMT -5
If prices get to high I could see tanner houck being our “addition” Since when did a AAA top prospect ever become the "addition" for Dombrowski? C'mon, people. Stop making stuff up to feed your anti Dave, raping the farm, agenda. The throw in for Kimbrel was Allen whose turned out well, but was a lottery ticket. Similar deal with Milwaukee for Thornburg (a bad trade). But I don't ever remember him throwing in a high level top prospect. Hmm...that...isn't how I interpreted grandsalami's post at all.
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Post by patford on Jul 27, 2019 21:58:45 GMT -5
On the bright side. At least Kimbrel is not on the team: 10th Yelich homered to left (392 feet). 10th Hiura homered to right (365 feet), Saladino scored. C. Kimbrel (L, 0-2, B, 2) 0.0 2 3 3 1 0 2 13-8 6.75
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Post by telson13 on Jul 27, 2019 22:01:55 GMT -5
On the bright side. At least Kimbrel is not on the team: 10th Yelich homered to left (392 feet). 10th Hiura homered to right (365 feet), Saladino scored. C. Kimbrel (L, 0-2, B, 2) 0.0 2 3 3 1 0 2 13-8 6.75 Keston Hiura has stone hands but a golden bat.
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Post by patford on Jul 27, 2019 22:12:12 GMT -5
/photo/1
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radiohix
Veteran
'At the end of the day, we bang. We bang. We're going to swing.' Alex Verdugo
Posts: 6,248
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Post by radiohix on Jul 28, 2019 6:35:58 GMT -5
On the bright side. At least Kimbrel is not on the team: 10th Yelich homered to left (392 feet). 10th Hiura homered to right (365 feet), Saladino scored. C. Kimbrel (L, 0-2, B, 2) 0.0 2 3 3 1 0 2 13-8 6.75 I've never seen a pitcher try so hard to screw his team chances to win a title more than what Kimbrel was trying to do during last year playoffs lol It wasn't like he was squeezed by umpires at the plate or BABIP'd to death with bloopers and seeing eye singles: It was four pitches walks, hit by pitches, massive bombs, scorched Line drives doubles etc etc Even the outs were lineouts and warning track flyballs haha. It's funny that Jensen gave up only 2 solo shots during LA playoffs run and got 2 blown saves while Kimbrel didn't blew one. My plan for last off season was simple: Just don't re-sign Kimbrel and I'm glad they did.
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Post by adiospaydro2005 on Jul 28, 2019 6:37:06 GMT -5
On the bright side. At least Kimbrel is not on the team: 10th Yelich homered to left (392 feet). 10th Hiura homered to right (365 feet), Saladino scored. C. Kimbrel (L, 0-2, B, 2) 0.0 2 3 3 1 0 2 13-8 6.75 Keston Hiura has stone hands but a golden bat. Based on recent reports it appears Cannon may possess similar traits.
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Post by iakovos11 on Jul 28, 2019 7:16:55 GMT -5
Since when did a AAA top prospect ever become the "addition" for Dombrowski? C'mon, people. Stop making stuff up to feed your anti Dave, raping the farm, agenda. The throw in for Kimbrel was Allen whose turned out well, but was a lottery ticket. Similar deal with Milwaukee for Thornburg (a bad trade). But I don't ever remember him throwing in a high level top prospect. Hmm...that...isn't how I interpreted grandsalami's post at all. I see that now - and it makes sense. Not sure why the trade addition popped into my mind. As for Houck, clearly the front office is eyeing that. He's struggled with transition so far, but it may take some time. We'll see how it goes.
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Post by telson13 on Jul 28, 2019 20:26:43 GMT -5
Keston Hiura has stone hands but a golden bat. Based on recent reports it appears Cannon may possess similar traits. I certainly hope so, although I don’t see Cannon developing nearly Hiura’s power. He’s a raw 60-65 and looks like he’s going to get to all of it in games. Then again, Cannon could stand to use his lower body more and get more drive from hip torque.
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 29, 2019 17:13:48 GMT -5
Matt Barnes in July:
9 appearances, 7 IP, 3 hits, 0 runs, 2 BB, 14 K (53.9%!) for a 0.09 FIP.
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Jul 31, 2019 8:36:43 GMT -5
Matt Barnes in July: 9 appearances, 7 IP, 3 hits, 0 runs, 2 BB, 14 K (53.9%!) for a 0.09 FIP. Diaz would have a 0.08 FIP if he were here.
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ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,923
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Post by ericmvan on Aug 1, 2019 12:55:54 GMT -5
Darwinzon's really come back to earth in is last three outings against the top teams.
He allowed a .224 xwOBA and only fanned 5 of the 10 hitters he faced, when he had fanned 13 out of his last 19 in his first inning of work.
His first inning xwOBA is up to .134 in 32 PA. Matt Moore leads MLB for guys with 30+ PA, with .206 in 33. Kirby Yates is next at .208. The .224 xwOBA would only rank 6th -- out of 596 guys.
Oh, Eovaldi excluding his rusty debut is .266, which would rank 43rd. Barnes is .263 on the season and Workman is .269.
It'll be fun comparing both their August / September numbers against the guys we didn't trade for.
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radiohix
Veteran
'At the end of the day, we bang. We bang. We're going to swing.' Alex Verdugo
Posts: 6,248
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Post by radiohix on Aug 1, 2019 13:50:28 GMT -5
🗣️ DARWINZON. 🗣️ IS 🗣️ ELITE!
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Aug 1, 2019 14:00:14 GMT -5
🗣️ DARWINZON. 🗣️ IS 🗣️ ELITE! You hope Darwinzon will be elite for a lot more than a 10 inning stretch. That would be more accurate. If he can do a few months worth of "elite" then I'll start to buy in.
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Post by patford on Aug 1, 2019 14:04:12 GMT -5
Darwinzon's really come back to earth in is last three outings against the top teams.
He allowed a .224 xwOBA and only fanned 5 of the 10 hitters he faced, when he had fanned 13 out of his last 19 in his first inning of work.
His first inning xwOBA is up to .134 in 32 PA. Matt Moore leads MLB for guys with 30+ PA, with .206 in 33. Kirby Yates is next at .208. The .224 xwOBA would only rank 6th -- out of 596 guys.
Oh, Eovaldi excluding his rusty debut is .266, which would rank 43rd. Barnes is .263 on the season and Workman is .269.
It'll be fun comparing both their August / September numbers against the guys we didn't trade for.
All good points. The problem has been the starters.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Aug 1, 2019 15:09:20 GMT -5
Darwinzon's really come back to earth in is last three outings against the top teams.
He allowed a .224 xwOBA and only fanned 5 of the 10 hitters he faced, when he had fanned 13 out of his last 19 in his first inning of work.
His first inning xwOBA is up to .134 in 32 PA. Matt Moore leads MLB for guys with 30+ PA, with .206 in 33. Kirby Yates is next at .208. The .224 xwOBA would only rank 6th -- out of 596 guys.
Oh, Eovaldi excluding his rusty debut is .266, which would rank 43rd. Barnes is .263 on the season and Workman is .269.
It'll be fun comparing both their August / September numbers against the guys we didn't trade for.
Well this is missing the point completely. You weren't getting rid of Eovaldi, Darwinzon, Barnes, and Workman. It would be to add on top of it.
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Post by incandenza on Aug 1, 2019 15:34:52 GMT -5
Darwinzon's really come back to earth in is last three outings against the top teams.
He allowed a .224 xwOBA and only fanned 5 of the 10 hitters he faced, when he had fanned 13 out of his last 19 in his first inning of work.
His first inning xwOBA is up to .134 in 32 PA. Matt Moore leads MLB for guys with 30+ PA, with .206 in 33. Kirby Yates is next at .208. The .224 xwOBA would only rank 6th -- out of 596 guys.
Oh, Eovaldi excluding his rusty debut is .266, which would rank 43rd. Barnes is .263 on the season and Workman is .269.
It'll be fun comparing both their August / September numbers against the guys we didn't trade for.
Well this is missing the point completely. You weren't getting rid of Eovaldi, Darwinzon, Barnes, and Workman. It would be to add on top of it. You made a big deal about "thinking outside the box" as a way to solve the bullpen issues. It seems to me that adding Cashner, which allows Eovaldi to go to the bullpen, which thus allows one of the most significant bullpen additions any team made at the cost of a couple of 17-year-old lottery tickets, was a pretty good outside-the-box move. Please explain why this is wrong.
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Post by coachmac on Aug 1, 2019 15:50:25 GMT -5
Cora on WEEI this afternoon re-affirmed his belief that both Taylor and Hernandez can be weapons for his bullpen. He also identified Workman as the guy. He says that they have identified a mechanical issue with Sale and he believes it will solve the command problems for Sale. He thinks the slider will again reach the back foot of the RH hitters.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Aug 1, 2019 16:34:01 GMT -5
Well this is missing the point completely. You weren't getting rid of Eovaldi, Darwinzon, Barnes, and Workman. It would be to add on top of it. You made a big deal about "thinking outside the box" as a way to solve the bullpen issues. It seems to me that adding Cashner, which allows Eovaldi to go to the bullpen, which thus allows one of the most significant bullpen additions any team made at the cost of a couple of 17-year-old lottery tickets, was a pretty good outside-the-box move. Please explain why this is wrong. LOL and what about this Porcello problem? You need Eovaldi in the rotation, not in the bullpen. Adding Cashner was a solid move. You needed MORE on top of that. I was the one that told people here that Eovaldi might be needed in the rotation.
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duda
Rookie
Posts: 15
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Post by duda on Aug 1, 2019 17:08:39 GMT -5
just a random thought but when Travis plays first, it occurred to me that the whole starting 9 is homegrown:
1b: Travis
2b: Chavis:
SS: X
3b: Devers
C: Vazquez
LF: Benny
CF: JBJ
RF: Mookie
When was the last time the Sox were able to pull this of. It is quite a feat. Just wish they could develop starting pitching at the same success rate.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Aug 1, 2019 17:57:41 GMT -5
just a random thought but when Travis plays first, it occurred to me that the whole starting 9 is homegrown: 1b: Travis 2b: Chavis: SS: X 3b: Devers C: Vazquez LF: Benny CF: JBJ RF: Mookie When was the last time the Sox were able to pull this of. It is quite a feat. Just wish they could develop starting pitching at the same success rate. 1988 would probably have been the last time: 1b: Todd Benzinger 2b: Marty Barrett SS: Jody Reed 3b: Wade Boggs C: Rich Gedman LF: Mike Greenwell CF: Ellis Burks RF: Dwight Evans They had Kevin Romine (Austin's dad) in reserve for the OF They had Sam Horn DHing at some points and Brady Anderson opened up the season in RF, I believe. These guys were home grown. The rotation had: Roger Clemens Bruce Hurst Oil Can Boyd Jeff Sellers Mike Smithson was reacquired but had been a Sox farmhand. The pen had Bob Stanley in the setup role. Tom Bolton was a LOOGY at that point. Even the manager was from the farm system: Walpole Joe Morgan
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Aug 2, 2019 8:35:22 GMT -5
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ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,923
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Post by ericmvan on Aug 20, 2019 16:30:37 GMT -5
There's no way to accurately judge the Sox bullpen, because it has run hot and cold. Or if you prefer, nuclear and Arctic. We tend to gloss over the periods of success and focus on the failures. Through May 12 (first 41 games) the Sox had the 5th best bullpen in MLB, based on Win Probability Added (what else?). Over the next 36 games, through June 21st, the pen ranked 7th, and their overall ranking had dropped just to 6th. But this was entirely misleading. For the first 27 of those games, the pen struggled, ranking 20th in MLB. It was then the best pen in MLB for 9 games. What the Sox pen did in those 9 games (+1.98 wins) was good enough to rank 8th in MLB on the season. Staring June 22, over the last 13 games, the Sox have had the second-worst pen in MLB. But it was better than average (12th best) as they won their last 4 games. You get this? They had a +1.98 WPA over 9 games and a -2.06 WPA over the next 9 games. How can you wrap your mind around that? But one thing is certain: no one perceived it as the pen being average over 18 games.
The Sox pen still ranks 11th, with +0.69 WPA. But this is two stretches (one long, one short) totaling 50 games with a +3.53 WPA, which would rank 5th in MLB, and two stretches (one long-ish and one short-ish) totaling 40 games where they had a -2.84 WPA, which would rank 25th.
Edit: The good version of the Sox bullpen, pro-rated over the full 90 games, is the second-best bullpen in MLB, after the non-contending Giants. The bad bullpen, prorated, is the second-worst, ahead only of the Nationals.
Figuring out why the pen has run so hot and cold is, of course, key to determining if it needs helps. But the easy thing to notice is that the pen was brilliant just after Heath Hembree went on the IL and then collapsed. You could (translation: I might but probably won't) look at how much Barnes, Workman, and Walden were worked before and just after the Hembree injury; it sure seemed as if they were overworked and then the pen fell apart. What went wrong in the 27 games from May 14 to June 11 is not so obvious. Let's see: +0.55 Walden (11 G)
+0.42 Hembree (13 G)
+0.26 Workman (12 G) -0.41 Barnes (12 G). -0.64 on June 10th alone.
-1.79 everyone else. So Barnes had a bit of a rough stretch, but the biggest problem was that the below-average guys were awful. This was a pretty good stretch for the 4 main starters but a rough one for the 5th guys, who started 6 of the 27 games.
The bottom line is that the more good pitchers you have, the better the pen can be expected to perform. The first rough stretrch happened when the below-average guys sucked instead of being meh, and the second one happened when the good guys sucked because of overwork.
Josh Taylor seems to have emerged as a 5th good pitcher, Steven Wright ought to be a 6th good pitcher, and Nathan Eovaldi and Darwinzon Hernandez are not too far from being added as two more good pitchers. That is a potentially very deep pen for a manager as good as Cora to manage. There should not be a problem going forward. Getting a good 5th starter to replace Drew Pomeranz -- oops, I mean Nathan Eovaldi -- is the important thing.
Sox bullpen has been 6th in MLB in WPA since July 1. It now ranks 8th overall on the season.
"Late Losses" are games lost after establishing a 75% chance of winning in the 6th inning or later. "Chances" adds the games they won in that stretch, exclusive of walk-offs.
Dates G WPA Rank Late Losses / Chances to 5/12 41 1.55 5 1 / 22 5/14 to 6/11 27 -0.97 20 5 / 16 6/12 to 6/21 9 1.98 1 1 / 7 6/22 to 6/30 7 -2.07 29 3 / 4 7/1 to 8/18 43 1.39 6 1 / 24
You'll note that middle three stretches total 43 games. So the season so far divides into three evenly-sized stretches:
-- Bullpen is excellent, but underrated because a lot of its value is holding the team close after the starters blow up -- Jekyll and Hyde where all the badness is grouped into two stretches, making it much more noticeable. Overall, they're 18th in this stretch, but no one realized they were merely a bit below average because we're hard-wired to focus on the bad.
-- Return to #1.
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Post by soxfansince67 on Aug 22, 2019 21:32:28 GMT -5
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