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Post by dmaineah on Nov 17, 2018 20:13:55 GMT -5
Swihart, lin, Chavis & Dalbec for Noah Syndergaard
Probably takes more, someone from the active roster & I think you all know who I'd be willing to include.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Nov 17, 2018 21:01:21 GMT -5
Not even close.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Nov 17, 2018 21:04:59 GMT -5
Swihart, lin, Chavis & Dalbec for Noah Syndergaard Probably takes more, someone from the active roster & I think you all know who I'd be willing to include. You're so transparent. And why in the world would the Mets make that kind of a deal? JBJ would be a rental for them who would get expensive quickly. Swihart is a question mark as catcher. Lin is most likely a utility man. Dalbec is striking out well over 35% of his ABs in AA so he's hardly a sure thing and Chavis is a nice piece but that's about it. You honestly think the Mets couldn't get a better package than that for Syndergaard? And what makes you think they're even going to deal Syndergaard or DeGrom? Does their new GM strike you as a guy who's going to deal away his top stars? Does their management strike as the type who'd let them? Honestly I think you're just trying to cook up scenarios to deal JBJ. Next year after the 2019 season, you might actually see that happen or not.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Nov 17, 2018 21:10:32 GMT -5
Swing and a miss. Lol. Got to love his spirit.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Nov 17, 2018 23:40:46 GMT -5
I love Thor, but he's not Chris Sale either and remember it all what teams want. Look at the Garret Cole trade. Plus Thor gets injured all the time and for a guy with his stuff pitching in the NL in those big parks with no DH he gives up a lot of hits. I don't know if I'd give up a huge return for him and want him pitching in the AL East. Mets had three starters give up less hits per 9 than Thor last year and he just beat Matz in Whip and even Wheeler had him beat. I just don't get how a guy with his stuff gets hit that much and if his HR rate goes up in the small AL East parks it wouldn't be good.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Nov 18, 2018 13:15:32 GMT -5
I love Thor, but he's not Chris Sale either and remember it all what teams want. Look at the Garret Cole trade. Plus Thor gets injured all the time and for a guy with his stuff pitching in the NL in those big parks with no DH he gives up a lot of hits. I don't know if I'd give up a huge return for him and want him pitching in the AL East. Mets had three starters give up less hits per 9 than Thor last year and he just beat Matz in Whip and even Wheeler had him beat. I just don't get how a guy with his stuff gets hit that much and if his HR rate goes up in the small AL East parks it wouldn't be good. Ok. Gerrit Cole was coming off two very mediocre seasons, both worse than anything Syndergaard has ever done, and still got arguably a better return than what's being proposed here. And everyone slammed the Pirates for not getting enough!
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Nov 18, 2018 14:54:49 GMT -5
I love Thor, but he's not Chris Sale either and remember it all what teams want. Look at the Garret Cole trade. Plus Thor gets injured all the time and for a guy with his stuff pitching in the NL in those big parks with no DH he gives up a lot of hits. I don't know if I'd give up a huge return for him and want him pitching in the AL East. Mets had three starters give up less hits per 9 than Thor last year and he just beat Matz in Whip and even Wheeler had him beat. I just don't get how a guy with his stuff gets hit that much and if his HR rate goes up in the small AL East parks it wouldn't be good. Ok. Gerrit Cole was coming off two very mediocre seasons, both worse than anything Syndergaard has ever done, and still got arguably a better return than what's being proposed here. And everyone slammed the Pirates for not getting enough! Cole last 3 years before trade 4.6, 1.5, 2.8 bwar 8.9 total, Thor last 3 years 5.0, .6, 4.0 bwar 9.6 total. Did you forget about Thor's 2017 season? Cole had two 200 innings season around that one injury season, Thor has been 183 innings and 154 innings around his injury season. Cole gave you 527 innings, Thor gave you 368.1 innings. Thor has another year of control, but like I said has a bunch of issues. The point was teams value guys differently and different teams want different things. One thing this board always does is assume the team trading a player wants a large pure prospect package and that's just not always the case. The Pirates wanted less risky more proven types they got Moran and another guy that was way lower. I'd argue Chavis and Dalbec is a lot more. They then got a decent pitcher and a raw rather crappy reliever. All depends how teams value Swihart and Lin. Most on this board think they don't carry much value, but I bet more than a few teams like the Mets would value them as guys that can come right and start. Be fringy type starters worth 1 to 2 bwar with some upside. That isn't crazy, I still think Swihart could become one of the best hitting catchers in the league and Lin has torn up the minors and can play SS, 2B, and 3B. I certainly wouldn't trade Bogaerts to start Lin, but he could be a rather helpful player to a team that needs a SS. He might surprise a lot of people, kinda like Shaw did. He's one of our more underrated prospects, he'd be starting for a good amount of teams or at least getting the chance too. So its not enough, but it might be closer than you think. Chavis, Swihart, and Lin could all likely start or have a very good chance at starting for the Mets next year. That is kind of trade the Mets need, no team lacks depth more than them. They won't rebuild, so getting a bunch of highly rated prospects years away doesn't do anything for them and as we've seen with the Red Sox trades those non-prospects like Shaw can be way more valuable than top prospects. Raise your hand if you had Shaw being better than anyone traded from the Kimbrel and Sale packages? So while I didn't like the return on Cole, I get what the Pirates were trying to do, reduce risk of just a prospect only package.
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Post by rivenp on Nov 19, 2018 4:53:36 GMT -5
They won't rebuild, so getting a bunch of highly rated prospects years away doesn't do anything for them and as we've seen with the Red Sox trades those non-prospects like Shaw can be way more valuable than top prospects. Raise your hand if you had Shaw being better than anyone traded from the Kimbrel and Sale packages? So while I didn't like the return on Cole, I get what the Pirates were trying to do, reduce risk of just a prospect only package. yes, of course non-prospects like shaw can be way more valuable than top prospects...except for one small issue - just like you pointed out, no one knows which 1 or 2 out of 50 will turn out like shaw and that's why they are valued exactly the way they are, and why they get you a thornburg instead of a thor.
you say the mets won't rebuild so highly-rated prospects years away aren't of any use??? that's why any trade for degrom or thor should include top prospects that are mlb ready...only sox guy even remotely close is chavis, and he's not nearly well-regarded enough. so unless the mets are interested in a bunch of mlb-ready middle relievers (or sox are willing to part with devers), sox aren't in play.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Nov 19, 2018 16:28:09 GMT -5
I really want no part of Thor, lets just make that clear. For all his upside, he carries a ton of risk and I'm not sure the AL East if he place for him.
At the same time who trades major league ready players like your talking about anymore unless they have issues like Moncada? Sure a bunch of teams could offer up big packages, but would they? In this day and age when prospects are valued higher than every? The Yankees wanted Cole a ton last year but wouldn't offer guys like that for him, same with every team. Machado a true generational talent cost a raw very risky around top 50 guy at the deadline when prices go crazy high. In the past it would have been a massive bundle of guys. Things have changed.
People tend to overstate the cost to acquire players, just go look at the Chris Sale thread to get an example. People thinking it took the package it did plus Bradley and Devers just crazy type crap, ERod was in a bunch of them also. It was so crazy that when we traded for him it seemed rather cheap. Thor for all his talent is closer to Cole than Sale. Frankly I'd go after Wheeler and Matz before him, it would be a better value.
I'd argue your odds are crazy. Its certainly not 1 or 2 out of 50 that do what Shaw did. He might have been better than anyone could predict, but he was worth 3.5 bwar in less than a season and a half. 2.4 bwar in his first full season. So 3.9 bwar and 4.1 bwar in prime seasons isn't crazy. He just improved and showed 2015 and 2016 weren't flukes like some thought. Guys that prove themselves in the majors are a lot less risky than unproven prospects. You can think Swihart and Lin are 1 or 2 in 50 guys to become average regulars, I don't. I'd argue its way lower than that. Those guys are burried by the crazy depth of the Red Sox super team. DD think enough of Swihart upside to keep him on the roster for a full year. An average regular is depth for us, yet starters for a team like the Mets. Plus Swihart has four seasons of control plus that upside that made him an elite prospect is still there.
My whole point wasn't that package gets you Thor, but that teams value guys differently and want different things. Some look at Chavis see a low top 100 guy, I see a guy that is closer to top 50 one of the better power bats in the minors. Some see Dalbec as a AAAA type guy, yet some see him as our #1 prospect. We take prospect ranking to mean so much and base our farm off of them, yet time and time again teams say they mean very little and their own rankings don't come close to matching those lists. Some people look at Howlett and see a guy with upside, but little value. I see a guy that is similar to the guy the was the headline to the Donaldson trade. A trade people ripped, yet was kinda of the turning point in teams valuing prospects more than ever. Yea there have been some big trades since then, but they are getting more and more rare.
I wouldn't trade Dever's straight up for Thor. Granted that could look crazy stupid in a few years, yet given what we have Thor isn't a huge need for us. Yet we need cheap players with Devers upside to manage our budget and I'm not even close to Devers biggest fan. Thor is just very risky, just starting to get expensive and everyone seems to value him like a Chris Sale type guy.
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Post by rivenp on Nov 19, 2018 17:25:34 GMT -5
1. Guys that prove themselves in the majors are a lot less risky than unproven prospects. 2. You can think Swihart and Lin are 1 or 2 in 50 guys to become average regulars, I don't. I'd argue its way lower than that. Those guys are burried by the crazy depth of the Red Sox super team. 1. have lin and swihart proven themselves in the majors??? i'd say that's a very questionable assumption...
2. who said anything about average regulars? i used your travis shaw example...you even looked up his bwar numbers for me...since when is a league average starter a 4 war player???
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Nov 19, 2018 17:45:20 GMT -5
You can think Swihart and Lin are 1 or 2 in 50 guys to become average regulars, I don't. I'd argue its way lower than that. Those guys are burried by the crazy depth of the Red Sox super team. who said anything about average regulars? i used your travis shaw example...you even looked up his bwar numbers for me...since when is a league average starter a 4 war player???
I used Shaw as an example of how non prospects can be undervalued. I thought I was kinda clear that I didn't see Swihart and Lin being 4 war players, I even said 1 to 2 war players with some upside. It was in the post you replied too, you just erased it and only focused on one part of what I said.
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Post by bruinsfan94 on Nov 19, 2018 17:58:06 GMT -5
Swihart, lin, Chavis & Dalbec for Noah Syndergaard Probably takes more, someone from the active roster & I think you all know who I'd be willing to include.
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Post by rivenp on Nov 19, 2018 17:58:42 GMT -5
who said anything about average regulars? i used your travis shaw example...you even looked up his bwar numbers for me...since when is a league average starter a 4 war player???
I used Shaw as an example of how non prospects can be undervalued. I thought I was kinda clear that I didn't see Swihart and Lin being 4 war players, I even said 1 to 2 war players with some upside. It was in the post you replied too, you just erased it and only focused on one part of what I said. well then it's your fault for not being consistent and moving the goalposts...i simply said shaw was a 1-2 in 50 situation and you came back with i'm completely wrong and changed that to 1-2 in 50 for lin and swihart to become average regulars. those aren't the same thing.
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Post by bruinsfan94 on Nov 19, 2018 17:58:57 GMT -5
Swihart, lin, Chavis & Dalbec for Noah Syndergaard Probably takes more, someone from the active roster & I think you all know who I'd be willing to include.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Nov 19, 2018 18:05:49 GMT -5
I used Shaw as an example of how non prospects can be undervalued. I thought I was kinda clear that I didn't see Swihart and Lin being 4 war players, I even said 1 to 2 war players with some upside. It was in the post you replied too, you just erased it and only focused on one part of what I said. well then it's your fault for not being consistent and moving the goalposts...i simply said shaw was a 1-2 in 50 situation and you came back with i'm completely wrong and changed that to 1-2 in 50 for lin and swihart to become average regulars. those aren't the same thing. Well I don't agree its 1 or 2 out of 50 that a player who's first full season is 2.4 bwar to become a 4 bwar player.
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Post by rivenp on Nov 19, 2018 19:13:07 GMT -5
Well I don't agree its 1 or 2 out of 50 that a player who's first full season is 2.4 bwar to become a 4 bwar player. that's fine...i'm very ok with this statement. however, i would again say using shaw is a poor representative example...not as extreme obviously, but in a way it's like saying guys who are dfa'd are undervalued because take the examples of jd martinez or big papi...
"I used Shaw as an example of how non prospects can be undervalued."
how many non-prospects end up a 4 war player??? i think 1-2 out of 50 is probably fairly accurate...
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Nov 19, 2018 20:38:44 GMT -5
OK I see what your saying and that was never my intent. Just trying to point out that guys that people see as non prospects can become very valuable, not 4 bwar players.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Nov 24, 2018 20:55:05 GMT -5
For what it's worth, calling Shaw a non-prospect is simply incorrect. He graduated as the #12 prospect in a very deep system in September 2015. Dombrowski hadn't traded anyone yet, so Moncada/Devers/Margot/Owens/Espinoza/Benintendi/Guerra/Johnson/Kopech/Travis/Marrero was the list in front of him - web.archive.org/web/20150905052252/http://www.soxprospects.com/ (And note we had a different ranking system then, I believe, so that 4 isn't equal to a current Role 4 projection). He surprised people, but this isn't, say, a Nava-level breakout or something. Anyway, point of information. Sorry for the tangent.
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