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2019-2020 Red Sox Offseason
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Feb 17, 2019 12:52:15 GMT -5
For all the reasons stated above, right now I would seriously prioritize resigning JD above Xander, and maybe even Sale. IMO JD’s bat will age well enough. More importantly, his knowledge and preparation have a ripple effect on the rest of the lineup. I don’t think it’s entirely a coincidence that Mookie had his two best years with a veteran mentor behind him in the lineup (and that, in the absence of a mentor-type, he was less consistent and confident about sticking with his approach).That sounds like the definition of a coincidence.
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Post by Smittyw on Feb 17, 2019 13:13:47 GMT -5
I have a hard time believing J.D. will opt out prior to the new CBA and/or the expanded DH...he's been through this rodeo once already and would be facing the same limitations, only two years older.
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Post by James Dunne on Feb 17, 2019 13:30:45 GMT -5
Joe Mauer making $5M AAV more than he was worth at the back end of his career was not even a little bit of the problem for the Twins. A $15M player getting paid $20M is just not a critical error, and the fact that people treat it as one is one of the reasons the owners hold so much power in the court of public opinion. "We can't pay these players long term deals anymore! What if they're a Joe Mauer situation, where the best player in the last 50 years of our franchise is slightly worse on the back end of the contract than we anticipate and he makes a few million that we weren't going to put into our payroll anyway. Then what will wee do?!?!"
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Post by larrycook on Feb 17, 2019 16:56:21 GMT -5
Th Sox have tons of resources in their starting rotation, a ton of internally developed hitters and a rag tag collection of bodies in the bullpen.
We have a ton of bullpen arms coming in feltman, Houck, lakins, and Hernandez.
The starting pitcher development pipeline is empty as we can not seem to develop any ourselves.
The position player pipeline has talent at the low end and next to nothing else, but existing Position players replacements can be signed as free agents.
Our strategy needs to continue. Identify and resign or go outside and sign the best starting pitching we can find. Keep the rotation as strong as possible and heavily resourced.
We set price limits for in house hitters, if they can get more, we let them walk and sign replacements until the hitter development pipeline starts to produce again.
The bullpen is about to receive a bounty of arms over the next several seasons from our minor leagues,
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Post by orion09 on Feb 17, 2019 16:57:18 GMT -5
For all the reasons stated above, right now I would seriously prioritize resigning JD above Xander, and maybe even Sale. IMO JD’s bat will age well enough. More importantly, his knowledge and preparation have a ripple effect on the rest of the lineup. I don’t think it’s entirely a coincidence that Mookie had his two best years with a veteran mentor behind him in the lineup (and that, in the absence of a mentor-type, he was less consistent and confident about sticking with his approach).That sounds like the definition of a coincidence. Wasn’t being glib when I said “not entirely a coincidence.” I mean that I think a small percentage (and probably only a small percentage) of “Top Level Mookie” is primed by having that kind of mentor in the lineup. Don’t you think that, say, even 10% of the difference between 106 wRC+ Mookie and 185 wRC+ Mookie could be due to having an older brother/mentor type who can help you stay consistent just by being around you every day? Having a guy around who a) is one of the 10 best people in the world at the thing he does and b) built his skill at that thing at an unusually late age after major struggles is a big advantage. Especially for someone like Mookie, who is insanely talented but is still gaining experience at making in-season adjustments. Ortiz fit that profile as well, and there are a bunch of interviews with players from 2017 talking about how much they miss his council and leadership. Obviously JD has a different personality, but he has the same profile as an experienced, elite, self-made hitter who is a relentless student of hitting. What I’m saying is I think having JD around the clubhouse every day is worth somewhere between 0.5 and 1.25 WAR total surplus value in terms of the performance and consistency of the other hitters, especially the young ones. No, it can never be measured. Just my hunch from working in a specialized field and seeing the huge value of elite teachers.
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Post by Don Caballero on Feb 17, 2019 17:28:20 GMT -5
Joe Mauer making $5M AAV more than he was worth at the back end of his career was not even a little bit of the problem for the Twins. A $15M player getting paid $20M is just not a critical error, and the fact that people treat it as one is one of the reasons the owners hold so much power in the court of public opinion. "We can't pay these players long term deals anymore! What if they're a Joe Mauer situation, where the best player in the last 50 years of our franchise is slightly worse on the back end of the contract than we anticipate and he makes a few million that we weren't going to put into our payroll anyway. Then what will wee do?!?!" That's not the biggest reason though, expecting fans to pity overpaid athletes because some people are richer than they are is unrealistic. This isn't an arbitration court, you shouldn't pick one side of the story and the MLBPA is barking at the wrong tree.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Feb 17, 2019 18:39:00 GMT -5
For all the reasons stated above, right now I would seriously prioritize resigning JD above Xander, and maybe even Sale. IMO JD’s bat will age well enough. More importantly, his knowledge and preparation have a ripple effect on the rest of the lineup. I don’t think it’s entirely a coincidence that Mookie had his two best years with a veteran mentor behind him in the lineup (and that, in the absence of a mentor-type, he was less consistent and confident about sticking with his approach). I do think that JD Martinez has been a very good influence on the team. That said, my inclination is to look for the simplest explanation I can before I put players on the couch. I could calculate the actual correlation between the batting average on balls in play - a quantity which is known to have a lot of random year-to-year variation - and OPS+, and I could put the graph up for that. But that would be overkill I think. This includes his rookie year with less than a third of the plate appearances Betts has had since he became a regular, so there's some noise there. The years since then each with 600+ PAs speak for themselves.
Year | Age | Tm | Lg | PA | BAbip | OPS+ |
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2014 | 21 | BOS | AL | 213 | .327 | 117 | 2015 | 22 | BOS | AL | 654 | .310 | 126 | 2016 | 23 | BOS | AL | 730 | .322 | 133 | 2017 | 24 | BOS | AL | 712 | .268 | 108 | 2018 | 25 | BOS | AL | 614 | .368 | 186 |
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Post by James Dunne on Feb 17, 2019 19:47:58 GMT -5
Joe Mauer making $5M AAV more than he was worth at the back end of his career was not even a little bit of the problem for the Twins. A $15M player getting paid $20M is just not a critical error, and the fact that people treat it as one is one of the reasons the owners hold so much power in the court of public opinion. "We can't pay these players long term deals anymore! What if they're a Joe Mauer situation, where the best player in the last 50 years of our franchise is slightly worse on the back end of the contract than we anticipate and he makes a few million that we weren't going to put into our payroll anyway. Then what will wee do?!?!" That's not the biggest reason though, expecting fans to pity overpaid athletes because some people are richer than they are is unrealistic. This isn't an arbitration court, you shouldn't pick one side of the story and the MLBPA is barking at the wrong tree. Twins fans were blaming their problems on Joe Mauer, a local product who became the best player in their franchise in the last 50 years, switched positions after suffering concussions, continued to be fairly effective if not the player he was when he was one of the top 10 catchers of all time.... all because he was making a couple million more than his $$/WAR indicated he should? That's pretty pathologically anti-labor. Every time a player makes a little bit more than he should, he's written up as the root of that team's problems.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Feb 17, 2019 20:02:52 GMT -5
Bogaerts has had a wRC+ above 130 once in his career. I mean shouldn't we assume when his D goes, his bat wouldn't be wRC+ 130. Isn't that the issue? His above average SS bat at 20 million, becomes a below average OF bat with bad D. Right isn't that the issue? If he's going to have a wRC+ of 130 or better you don't have any worries about his D. He wouldn't be a bad DH with those numbers. Xander also remade his approach with Cora and the coaching staff. His swing from 2015-2017 was completely useless. He turned himself into a slap hitter. This year will be big for him. If he can put big back to back seasons with his new approach, he could be worth the money.
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Post by Don Caballero on Feb 17, 2019 20:16:22 GMT -5
Twins fans were blaming their problems on Joe Mauer, a local product who became the best player in their franchise in the last 50 years, switched positions after suffering concussions, continued to be fairly effective if not the player he was when he was one of the top 10 catchers of all time.... all because he was making a couple million more than his $$/WAR indicated he should? That's pretty pathologically anti-labor. Every time a player makes a little bit more than he should, he's written up as the root of that team's problems. When any team underachieves, fans usually look up to the guy who's getting paid the most to direct their anger if he's also underperforming. And that was the case with Mauer. It's understandable even if a admittedly irrational, I don't think it's anti-labor either since he still did his job and some of the fans still supported him (I guess? I mean it's a safe assumption it wasn't the entire Twins fanbase echoing that sentiment). The problem here is that he was underpaid while he was that legendary HoFer and this just doesn't get stressed enough. Stop rewarding guys past their primes and look for ways to reward them while they're in their prime. I get it for the MLBPA though, given the current rules they're looking after the guys who make the most money and in turn make them the most money. But they're losing this battle badly and their message is falling on deaf ears. For good reason too, it's a misguided message.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Feb 17, 2019 21:08:52 GMT -5
Bogaerts has had a wRC+ above 130 once in his career. I mean shouldn't we assume when his D goes, his bat wouldn't be wRC+ 130. Isn't that the issue? His above average SS bat at 20 million, becomes a below average OF bat with bad D. Right isn't that the issue? If he's going to have a wRC+ of 130 or better you don't have any worries about his D. He wouldn't be a bad DH with those numbers. Xander also remade his approach with Cora and the coaching staff. His swing from 2015-2017 was completely useless. He turned himself into a slap hitter. This year will be big for him. If he can put big back to back seasons with his new approach, he could be worth the money. I feel he has a monster year and you will have a crazy hard decision.
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Post by soxjim on Feb 18, 2019 1:21:38 GMT -5
Xander should be signed for his bat at ss. In 2016 his OPS among SS was 5th. His numbers imo could have been higher but with Farrell as the manager it means that players like Xander are going to play a ton - Xander played 157 games. CHeck the stats starting around mid-June he dropped steadily each and every month thereafter too.
And in 2017 the early July injury sapped his power. He had about a .808 to .818 OPS which is very good for a SS.
He's shown he can hit and be among the best. Got to put a priority on him.
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Post by marrcus on Feb 18, 2019 2:08:22 GMT -5
Like Jacoby maybe? Yeah think he'll be a "priority" but I don't think he's a must get. If Boras puts him out of reach like he did Ells I think they will walk away.
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gerry
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Post by gerry on Feb 18, 2019 5:07:13 GMT -5
Like Jacoby maybe? Yeah think he'll be a "priority" but I don't think he's a must get. If Boras puts him out of reach like he did Ells I think they will walk away. With Xander and JDM coming up in 2019 and then JBJ in 2020, this especially does not bode well for keeping the core together. All three are represented by Boras, the poster boy for paying his players max at the expense of the other players, the success of the team, and the goodwill of Sox fans. It’s a shame that baseball (owners, media, players and their union and agents) don’t prioritize the long view of fixing the inequities in which everyone wins. The solutions are so obvious.
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Post by telson13 on Feb 18, 2019 7:42:48 GMT -5
For all the reasons stated above, right now I would seriously prioritize resigning JD above Xander, and maybe even Sale. IMO JD’s bat will age well enough. More importantly, his knowledge and preparation have a ripple effect on the rest of the lineup. I don’t think it’s entirely a coincidence that Mookie had his two best years with a veteran mentor behind him in the lineup (and that, in the absence of a mentor-type, he was less consistent and confident about sticking with his approach). I do think that JD Martinez has been a very good influence on the team. That said, my inclination is to look for the simplest explanation I can before I put players on the couch. I could calculate the actual correlation between the batting average on balls in play - a quantity which is known to have a lot of random year-to-year variation - and OPS+, and I could put the graph up for that. But that would be overkill I think. This includes his rookie year with less than a third of the plate appearances Betts has had since he became a regular, so there's some noise there. The years since then each with 600+ PAs speak for themselves.
Year | Age | Tm | Lg | PA | BAbip | OPS+ |
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2014 | 21 | BOS | AL | 213 | .327 | 117 | 2015 | 22 | BOS | AL | 654 | .310 | 126 | 2016 | 23 | BOS | AL | 730 | .322 | 133 | 2017 | 24 | BOS | AL | 712 | .268 | 108 | 2018 | 25 | BOS | AL | 614 | .368 | 186 |
I think it’s fair to argue that BABIP has a lot to do with approach and quality of contact, though. It’s not just “luck.” Some of it is, but the difference between a BABIP of 0.327 and 0.368 isn’t >50 points of wRC+. It’s no secret that Mookie’s swing path, and in particular his launch angle and *especially* his barrel rate changed last year.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Feb 18, 2019 9:41:46 GMT -5
Like Jacoby maybe? Yeah think he'll be a "priority" but I don't think he's a must get. If Boras puts him out of reach like he did Ells I think they will walk away. Yea just like him, he's exactly who I was thinking about.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Feb 18, 2019 11:50:16 GMT -5
Like Jacoby maybe? Yeah think he'll be a "priority" but I don't think he's a must get. If Boras puts him out of reach like he did Ells I think they will walk away. Yea just like him, he's exactly who I was thinking about. Fairly different situation, however, in that Bogaerts will be 4 years younger when he hits free agency and his game doesn't rely on speed and defense the way Ellsbury's did. It wasn't hard to foresee Ellsbury collapsing towards the end of his deal in a way that it is hard to see Bogaerts falling apart as he hits, what, 32 at the end of his next deal? Consider also that letting Ellsbury go was made easier with the presence of JBJ in the minors. I'm not sure we'll see the heir apparent at short by the end of this year (unless you're kind of unreasonably bullish on CJ Chatham).
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Post by Don Caballero on Feb 18, 2019 12:09:32 GMT -5
I might be wrong here, but I think the decision with Xander will be harder if he's decent but unspectacular, like if he posts 2017 numbers.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Feb 18, 2019 12:12:28 GMT -5
Yea just like him, he's exactly who I was thinking about. Fairly different situation, however, in that Bogaerts will be 4 years younger when he hits free agency and his game doesn't rely on speed and defense the way Ellsbury's did. It wasn't hard to foresee Ellsbury collapsing towards the end of his deal in a way that it is hard to see Bogaerts falling apart as he hits, what, 32 at the end of his next deal? Consider also that letting Ellsbury go was made easier with the presence of JBJ in the minors. I'm not sure we'll see the heir apparent at short by the end of this year (unless you're kind of unreasonably bullish on CJ Chatham). Or Lin if you think he's a regular in the majors.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Feb 18, 2019 16:07:40 GMT -5
Yea just like him, he's exactly who I was thinking about. Fairly different situation, however, in that Bogaerts will be 4 years younger when he hits free agency and his game doesn't rely on speed and defense the way Ellsbury's did. It wasn't hard to foresee Ellsbury collapsing towards the end of his deal in a way that it is hard to see Bogaerts falling apart as he hits, what, 32 at the end of his next deal? Consider also that letting Ellsbury go was made easier with the presence of JBJ in the minors. I'm not sure we'll see the heir apparent at short by the end of this year (unless you're kind of unreasonably bullish on CJ Chatham). I was more thinking he has such a big year he pushes his price through the roof like Ellsbury. Age 32 is what a six year deal? That seems legit right now. What if his monster year takes that to 8, 9, heck even 10 years? Takes a 120 million deal and makes it 200 million. He could make things rather tricky with a big year and I almost expect that.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Feb 19, 2019 21:05:40 GMT -5
Assuming Bryce Harper breaks the 324 million dollar deal for Stanton (say 330 million dollar deal for Harper), are the Sox and John Henry really prepared or want to go to 340 for a extension with Mookie?
That's the million dollar question. Mookie is a better player than Harper and deserves more money than him. Mookie is also surveying the market and is waiting to get paid like the best also.
The 2019/2020 off-season is where you have to do it or you risk losing the most dynamic player this organization has had since Ted Williams the next off-season.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Feb 19, 2019 21:24:45 GMT -5
Also the Sox better sign Sale. You're going to lose him to the Yankees if you don't pay him.
The Yankees might go ahead and buy Bumgardner anyways, but at least you can control keeping the better pitcher away from them in Sale. There's nothing more the Yankees would love to do then to take Sale away from the Sox if they get the chance next off-season.
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Post by bluechip on Feb 19, 2019 21:35:37 GMT -5
Assuming Bryce Harper breaks the 324 million dollar deal for Stanton (say 330 million dollar deal for Harper), are the Sox and John Henry really prepared or want to go to 340 for a extension with Mookie? That's the million dollar question. Mookie is a better player than Harper and deserves more money than him. Mookie is also surveying the market and is waiting to get paid like the best also. The 2019/2020 off-season is where you have to do it or you risk losing the most dynamic player this organization has had since Ted Williams the next off-season. Well Mike Trout is a free agent the same offseason. People have been talking about 2018-19 for a while. 2020-2021 is going to be way more interesting.
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Post by telson13 on Feb 20, 2019 0:15:23 GMT -5
Xander also remade his approach with Cora and the coaching staff. His swing from 2015-2017 was completely useless. He turned himself into a slap hitter. This year will be big for him. If he can put big back to back seasons with his new approach, he could be worth the money. I feel he has a monster year and you will have a crazy hard decision. Let’s hope his SS defense ticks up and he makes it easier. I agree with you that if he’s looking like a long-term 125-135 wRC+ hitter, he’s probably a pretty easy call in that he’ll provide terrific production at SS for a couple-few years, and then certainly would be adequate offensively and good defensively at 3b after (guessing Devers goes to 1b or DHs if(when) he pans out offensively, unless his defense also takes a leap). But moving Bogey to the OF or DH spot with a 110-120 wRC+ at 20+M AAV...ouch. Not money well-spent at all. Ideally they get him to extend for 6 yr around $22M AAV, maybe with an opt-out at year 4; at 33 on the back end he’d still have a shot at one more deal (31 withthe opt-out), and he’d presumably retain most of his skills. If he has a monster year, might even be tougher since the price/yr would go up but long-term prospects probably don’t change all to much.
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Post by telson13 on Feb 20, 2019 0:25:16 GMT -5
Fairly different situation, however, in that Bogaerts will be 4 years younger when he hits free agency and his game doesn't rely on speed and defense the way Ellsbury's did. It wasn't hard to foresee Ellsbury collapsing towards the end of his deal in a way that it is hard to see Bogaerts falling apart as he hits, what, 32 at the end of his next deal? Consider also that letting Ellsbury go was made easier with the presence of JBJ in the minors. I'm not sure we'll see the heir apparent at short by the end of this year (unless you're kind of unreasonably bullish on CJ Chatham). Or Lin if you think he's a regular in the majors. I said this elsewhere, but if one buys Lin as a 2-WAR regular SS (and I do, maybe more, because I think he can approach last year’s AAA line in MLB when he’s 27-28), then you’ve got a real tough decision. Lin definitely has the defensive skills for SS, and from everything he’s shown, the bat, too. Not to be great, but his floor as established with irregular time is roughly a 2-WAR player. The Sox are only on the hook for, at MOST, $3M TOTAL over the next 3 years with him. Figure Bogey gets $21 M AAV. That’s $20M difference. That’s 2/3 of Gerrit Cole, a 5-win pitcher. Does Lin-Cole beat Bogey-(fill-in 5th starter?). If Lin-Cole is worth 7 WAR for $31M, can the Sox count on Bogey to be a 5-WAR SS/3b, and then find a starter worth 2 WAR for under $10M?
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