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2019-2020 Red Sox Offseason
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Feb 27, 2019 10:03:56 GMT -5
Such a crapshoot, no matter what. Still haven't come up with an accurate model for predicting stock performance on the exchanges after all these years, despite the billions of dollars, or more, spent on trying to forecast stock prices. Article has PECOTA badly missing Red Sox' directional trend in '18, while B-R accurately predicts upward trend for Sox. B-R had Baltimore finishing at .500, and Tampa Bay having an abysmal season, finishing 32 games under .500, while PECOTA was much, much more accurate with it's predictions for Baltimore and TB in '18. I don't know why people think that this is a point worth making. Oh, projections systems don't predict the future with perfect accuracy? Yeah, they don't facilitate time travel or function as perpetual motion machines either.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Feb 27, 2019 10:12:32 GMT -5
Rob Bradford had a scary thought. Perhaps with Arenado locked up, and if Rendon reups with Washington, it's possible the Yankees might go after Bogaerts. Why? They were barely discussed for Machado so that tells me they don't really want a SS or 3B. If the Yankees don't bring back Gregorious after this season, then who is their SS after 2019? They certainly discussed Machado and brought him in. Doesn't mean they were overly impressed with him. Perhaps they wanted Arenado as some have speculated. They're either going to bring back Gregorious or they're going to go after a SS. That seems quite obvious. Would it really be surprising if the Yankees do go after Bogaerts if they don't bring back Didi? The days of George are over but at some point the Yankees do spend money, just like every other big market team does.
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Post by jimed14 on Feb 27, 2019 10:36:25 GMT -5
Why? They were barely discussed for Machado so that tells me they don't really want a SS or 3B. If the Yankees don't bring back Gregorious after this season, then who is their SS after 2019? They certainly discussed Machado and brought him in. Doesn't mean they were overly impressed with him. Perhaps they wanted Arenado as some have speculated. They're either going to bring back Gregorious or they're going to go after a SS. That seems quite obvious. Would it really be surprising if the Yankees do go after Bogaerts if they don't bring back Didi? The days of George are over but at some point the Yankees do spend money, just like every other big market team does. I don't see why they wouldn't bring back Gregorious. He's a perfect fit for Yankee Stadium and isn't worth nearly as much to any other team. Besides, he's probably not playing this year at all, so why wouldn't they just replace him now if they were set on moving on from him. With the way the Yankees have been operating, I wouldn't be surprised if Troy Tulowitski is still their SS next season even if they let Gregorious go.
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ematz1423
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Post by ematz1423 on Feb 27, 2019 10:49:24 GMT -5
If the Yankees don't bring back Gregorious after this season, then who is their SS after 2019? They certainly discussed Machado and brought him in. Doesn't mean they were overly impressed with him. Perhaps they wanted Arenado as some have speculated. They're either going to bring back Gregorious or they're going to go after a SS. That seems quite obvious. Would it really be surprising if the Yankees do go after Bogaerts if they don't bring back Didi? Gleyber Torres?
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Feb 27, 2019 10:51:15 GMT -5
If the Yankees don't bring back Gregorious after this season, then who is their SS after 2019? They certainly discussed Machado and brought him in. Doesn't mean they were overly impressed with him. Perhaps they wanted Arenado as some have speculated. They're either going to bring back Gregorious or they're going to go after a SS. That seems quite obvious. Would it really be surprising if the Yankees do go after Bogaerts if they don't bring back Didi? The days of George are over but at some point the Yankees do spend money, just like every other big market team does. I don't see why they wouldn't bring back Gregorious. He's a perfect fit for Yankee Stadium and isn't worth nearly as much to any other team. Besides, he's probably not playing this year at all, so why wouldn't they just replace him now if they were set on moving on from him. With the way the Yankees have been operating, I wouldn't be surprised if Troy Tulowitski is still their SS next season even if they let Gregorious go. Just about everything I read says they're expecting Gregorius back before the end of the season. I'd be very surprised if Tulowitzski was their SS in 2020. We don't even know if he'll hold up all season in 2019. The Yankees didn't go after Harper at all. Didn't even meet with him. They did bother to meet with Machado. That tells me they're looking for a guy on the left side of their infield. My guess is they try to bring back Didi, but I don't think Bradford is being outrageous for suggesting that the Yankees could potentially target Bogaerts. Bogaerts is not going to break their bank. He's not getting Harper/Machado/Arenado money and he is young. If the Sox re-up Sale and determine that they're not bringing back Bogaerts, he will be a hot commodity and the Yankees could have a potential need. Not that it's a huge factor but Bogaerts grew up idolizing Jeter, which is why he wears #2. I think Bogaerts' first wish would be to return to Boston, but if the Sox deem that between trying to sign Mookie and bringing back Sale if they choose to, unless Bogaerts takes less money than his market, he's probably elsewhere in 2020, particularly if Chatham has a good 2019 (not that I'd ever push Bogaerts out of the way to make room for Chatham).
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Feb 27, 2019 10:54:06 GMT -5
Yeah, that's quite possible. And perhaps they're looking more for a 3b than a SS if that's the case. They had interest in Machado and were rumored to want to be in on the Arenado bidding. With Bogaerts, it's just a matter of time before he'll need to shift to 3b. Any team signing him for 7 years will probably have him playing 3b for the last 4 seasons. My eyes tell me that Bogaerts is a good reliable SS with decent, but not great range, but I don't think the defensive metrics think highly of his defense at SS.
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Post by fenwaydouble on Feb 27, 2019 11:06:42 GMT -5
Yeah, that's quite possible. And perhaps they're looking more for a 3b than a SS if that's the case. They had interest in Machado and were rumored to want to be in on the Arenado bidding. With Bogaerts, it's just a matter of time before he'll need to shift to 3b. Any team signing him for 7 years will probably have him playing 3b for the last 4 seasons. My eyes tell me that Bogaerts is a good reliable SS with decent, but not great range, but I don't think the defensive metrics think highly of his defense at SS. The metrics disagree with each other. DRS absolutely hates him, but UZR thinks he's fine. I don't think that he's as bad as DRS says, but I also don't really trust my eye to make that call. It's hard to know what the front office's internal metrics say, but the answer will probably determine whether they want to shell out $150 million for him.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Feb 27, 2019 11:21:43 GMT -5
Yeah, that's quite possible. And perhaps they're looking more for a 3b than a SS if that's the case. They had interest in Machado and were rumored to want to be in on the Arenado bidding. With Bogaerts, it's just a matter of time before he'll need to shift to 3b. Any team signing him for 7 years will probably have him playing 3b for the last 4 seasons. My eyes tell me that Bogaerts is a good reliable SS with decent, but not great range, but I don't think the defensive metrics think highly of his defense at SS. The metrics disagree with each other. DRS absolutely hates him, but UZR thinks he's fine. I don't think that he's as bad as DRS says, but I also don't really trust my eye to make that call. It's hard to know what the front office's internal metrics say, but the answer will probably determine whether they want to shell out $150 million for him. Well that's the thing. Bogaerts is perfect for the Red Sox for the new few years. Chatham can be a serviceable SS probably in a year or two win perhaps Lin, who's better as a utility man, manning SS until Chatham is ready, and their best long range hope is Antoni Flores who is at least 3 or 4 years away. If you're signing Bogaerts you have to figure he gets 7 or 8 years. Out of those years how many will be with him being a serviceable SS? The obvious move as he ages is to slide him over to 3b but that's where the Red Sox are most stacked when it comes to minor league depth. Can Bogaerts slide over to 2b if he's declining at SS? The Sox don't have a long-term succession plan to Pedroia who's career might not make it to 2021. Would he be able to play corner OF if either Mookie is re-signed and JBJ leaves or Mookie leaves and JBJ re-signs? My gut has been wrong plenty but I don't think Bogaerts comes back after 2019, unless it's an Aaron Hicks steal of a deal kind of thing, which with Boras as his agent, probably won't happen.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Feb 27, 2019 13:26:33 GMT -5
The metrics disagree with each other. DRS absolutely hates him, but UZR thinks he's fine. I don't think that he's as bad as DRS says, but I also don't really trust my eye to make that call. It's hard to know what the front office's internal metrics say, but the answer will probably determine whether they want to shell out $150 million for him. Well that's the thing. Bogaerts is perfect for the Red Sox for the new few years. Chatham can be a serviceable SS probably in a year or two win perhaps Lin, who's better as a utility man, manning SS until Chatham is ready, and their best long range hope is Antoni Flores who is at least 3 or 4 years away. If you're signing Bogaerts you have to figure he gets 7 or 8 years. Out of those years how many will be with him being a serviceable SS? The obvious move as he ages is to slide him over to 3b but that's where the Red Sox are most stacked when it comes to minor league depth. Can Bogaerts slide over to 2b if he's declining at SS? The Sox don't have a long-term succession plan to Pedroia who's career might not make it to 2021. Would he be able to play corner OF if either Mookie is re-signed and JBJ leaves or Mookie leaves and JBJ re-signs? My gut has been wrong plenty but I don't think Bogaerts comes back after 2019, unless it's an Aaron Hicks steal of a deal kind of thing, which with Boras as his agent, probably won't happen. I don't think you can use minor league depth as a reason to not resign/extend Bogaerts. Especially not when the shortstop depth you mentioned is Chatham, who I like but hasn't proven that he has the potential to be much more than an average starter at the position, and Antoni Flores who is all of 18 years old. Those two guys are nowhere near the lock a prospect would have to be to make moving off Bogaerts a comfortable decision. I think the only way a prospect figures into it is if the prospect were at the level of Tatis Jr. or Brendan Rodgers (just at the position). If the team signs him to a long-term deal and he becomes a negative asset into the later years of it, there are ways of navigating that. If Antoni Flores hits the upside, I don't think a washed Bogaerts would really block him because of the contract. And if Bogaerts is good throughout the entirety of the contract, DD has obviously shown a willingness in the past to trade performing prospects to fill in other holes at the big league level. I don't really have a horse in this race when it comes to his extension, I go back and forth. But I just think the line of thinking you're using by worrying about the prospects' path is flawed.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Feb 27, 2019 14:31:51 GMT -5
Well that's the thing. Bogaerts is perfect for the Red Sox for the new few years. Chatham can be a serviceable SS probably in a year or two win perhaps Lin, who's better as a utility man, manning SS until Chatham is ready, and their best long range hope is Antoni Flores who is at least 3 or 4 years away. If you're signing Bogaerts you have to figure he gets 7 or 8 years. Out of those years how many will be with him being a serviceable SS? The obvious move as he ages is to slide him over to 3b but that's where the Red Sox are most stacked when it comes to minor league depth. Can Bogaerts slide over to 2b if he's declining at SS? The Sox don't have a long-term succession plan to Pedroia who's career might not make it to 2021. Would he be able to play corner OF if either Mookie is re-signed and JBJ leaves or Mookie leaves and JBJ re-signs? My gut has been wrong plenty but I don't think Bogaerts comes back after 2019, unless it's an Aaron Hicks steal of a deal kind of thing, which with Boras as his agent, probably won't happen. I don't think you can use minor league depth as a reason to not resign/extend Bogaerts. Especially not when the shortstop depth you mentioned is Chatham, who I like but hasn't proven that he has the potential to be much more than an average starter at the position, and Antoni Flores who is all of 18 years old. Those two guys are nowhere near the lock a prospect would have to be to make moving off Bogaerts a comfortable decision. I think the only way a prospect figures into it is if the prospect were at the level of Tatis Jr. or Brendan Rodgers (just at the position). If the team signs him to a long-term deal and he becomes a negative asset into the later years of it, there are ways of navigating that. If Antoni Flores hits the upside, I don't think a washed Bogaerts would really block him because of the contract. And if Bogaerts is good throughout the entirety of the contract, DD has obviously shown a willingness in the past to trade performing prospects to fill in other holes at the big league level. I don't really have a horse in this race when it comes to his extension, I go back and forth. But I just think the line of thinking you're using by worrying about the prospects' path is flawed. It's not that I'm thinking cool we have Chatham for a year or two and then Flores, so we're saved. I'm thinking along the lines of whoever replaces Bogaerts should he leave will probably be a player on the low end of the salary scale, like a farmhand - say Lin. If Bogaerts is leaving I'm assuming that Sale is sticking around for a lot more money, that they have designs on upping JDM's money and that they want to prioritize a huge expenditure to Betts. If they're doing those things they're anticipating payroll bumps, even with a Porcello potentially leaving and Sandoval finally getting off the books, so I think they'll be looking to do something similar to what they are doing with the bullpen - don't spend money on Kimbrel. Hope that Lakins and Feltman and maybe Hernandez can be low-cost options (with Barnes assuming Kimbrel's role).
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Post by jimed14 on Feb 27, 2019 15:23:09 GMT -5
Who the Red Sox sign is likely going to depend mostly on who wants to re-sign to the most. If Xander wants to get an extension done, I'm sure the Red Sox aren't going to say no and that's also likely the same case with JBJ, Sale and Mookie. If they want to be the next Bryce Harper and meet with 20 teams a total of 500 times, then why waste time on them when you have others who are willing to get it done sooner?
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Post by fenwaydouble on Feb 27, 2019 15:53:16 GMT -5
I don't think you can use minor league depth as a reason to not resign/extend Bogaerts. Especially not when the shortstop depth you mentioned is Chatham, who I like but hasn't proven that he has the potential to be much more than an average starter at the position, and Antoni Flores who is all of 18 years old. Those two guys are nowhere near the lock a prospect would have to be to make moving off Bogaerts a comfortable decision. I think the only way a prospect figures into it is if the prospect were at the level of Tatis Jr. or Brendan Rodgers (just at the position). If the team signs him to a long-term deal and he becomes a negative asset into the later years of it, there are ways of navigating that. If Antoni Flores hits the upside, I don't think a washed Bogaerts would really block him because of the contract. And if Bogaerts is good throughout the entirety of the contract, DD has obviously shown a willingness in the past to trade performing prospects to fill in other holes at the big league level. I don't really have a horse in this race when it comes to his extension, I go back and forth. But I just think the line of thinking you're using by worrying about the prospects' path is flawed. It's not that I'm thinking cool we have Chatham for a year or two and then Flores, so we're saved. I'm thinking along the lines of whoever replaces Bogaerts should he leave will probably be a player on the low end of the salary scale, like a farmhand - say Lin. If Bogaerts is leaving I'm assuming that Sale is sticking around for a lot more money, that they have designs on upping JDM's money and that they want to prioritize a huge expenditure to Betts. If they're doing those things they're anticipating payroll bumps, even with a Porcello potentially leaving and Sandoval finally getting off the books, so I think they'll be looking to do something similar to what they are doing with the bullpen - don't spend money on Kimbrel. Hope that Lakins and Feltman and maybe Hernandez can be low-cost options (with Barnes assuming Kimbrel's role). The more I look at the money coming off the books, the more I think they're going to re-sign all three of Sale, JD, and Bogaerts. You're freeing up 21M from Porcello, 6.5M from Moreland, 5M from Nunez, 6.25M from Pearce, and 13M from Sandoval. The next year, Castillo's 14M comes off the books, as well as another 5M from Sandoval. Obviously a big chunk of that will need to go to arb raises, maybe a first baseman, and extending Mookie, but you're still going to have a lot left over to give Sale, JD, and Bogaerts raises. It's absolutely feasible in the short-term. The reason you wouldn't want to do it is because you don't want to tie up future payroll space in an aging Sale and JD and a Bogaerts who has to move of shortstop. But the team is so good right now, and I don't think Henry is going to shut the window early just to keep the team a little more flexible down the road.
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Post by James Dunne on Feb 27, 2019 15:59:18 GMT -5
Castillo's money doesn't count toward the tax cap, so it's not a realistic hindrance on anything.
And the $33M freed up by Porcello and the first basemen is nice, but it also means they need a starting pitcher and a first baseman. Maybe Chavis and Hernandez or another couple prospects step up--that would be ideal--but it's hardly a sure thing.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Feb 27, 2019 16:35:35 GMT -5
We all need to be realistic. No matter how you slice and dice the numbers, it's very unlikely that the Sox will be able to bring everyone back. They won't be paying Benintendi and Devers pre-arb cash forever, and the list of players they have to pay or replace is going to include much of the core. This is why the PoBO gets the big bucks, to make the tough calls. Given the success the team just had, they will probably be very tough.
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Post by fenwaydouble on Feb 27, 2019 16:36:03 GMT -5
Castillo's money doesn't count toward the tax cap, so it's not a realistic hindrance on anything. And the $33M freed up by Porcello and the first basemen is nice, but it also means they need a starting pitcher and a first baseman. Maybe Chavis a--but it's hardly a sure thing. Ah, I forgot about Castillo and the cap. Agreed that they'll have holes to fill, but they have more flexibility than I thought they did, provided Henry is willing to continue the big spending while the team is a contender.
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Post by jimed14 on Feb 27, 2019 16:38:00 GMT -5
Castillo's money doesn't count toward the tax cap, so it's not a realistic hindrance on anything. And the $33M freed up by Porcello and the first basemen is nice, but it also means they need a starting pitcher and a first baseman. Maybe Chavis a--but it's hardly a sure thing. Ah, I forgot about Castillo and the cap. Agreed that they'll have holes to fill, but they have more flexibility than I thought they did, provided Henry is willing to continue the big spending while the team is a contender. Given their unwillingness to spend on the bullpen, an unlimited payroll forever is not an option. They look like they want to reset the tax next season.
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Post by mredsox89 on Feb 27, 2019 16:44:32 GMT -5
Ah, I forgot about Castillo and the cap. Agreed that they'll have holes to fill, but they have more flexibility than I thought they did, provided Henry is willing to continue the big spending while the team is a contender. Given their unwillingness to spend on the bullpen, an unlimited payroll forever is not an option. They look like they want to reset the tax next season. It also makes it less likely that they'll agree to an extension of one of their core guys before the end of the 2019 MLB year, unless it somehow reduces the player's AAV. Not sure that's feasible with any of the realistic extension candidates. Betts' extension will be at more than a $20M AAV, Sale's will be at more than a $15M AAV, Xander's will be at more than a $12M AAV. Cot's has them per luxury tax purposes right now at $237.5M, so they don't have much wiggle room, which is why I just don't see them signing Betts before next offseason. If they want to stay under the limit this year, it makes it almost impossible to extend Xander or Sale before FA too
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Feb 27, 2019 16:48:11 GMT -5
Yeah, that's quite possible. And perhaps they're looking more for a 3b than a SS if that's the case. They had interest in Machado and were rumored to want to be in on the Arenado bidding. With Bogaerts, it's just a matter of time before he'll need to shift to 3b. Any team signing him for 7 years will probably have him playing 3b for the last 4 seasons. My eyes tell me that Bogaerts is a good reliable SS with decent, but not great range, but I don't think the defensive metrics think highly of his defense at SS. The metrics disagree with each other. DRS absolutely hates him, but UZR thinks he's fine. I don't think that he's as bad as DRS says, but I also don't really trust my eye to make that call. It's hard to know what the front office's internal metrics say, but the answer will probably determine whether they want to shell out $150 million for him. I hear the Yankees have had some success with a defensively limited shortstop in the past.
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Post by Don Caballero on Feb 27, 2019 16:48:44 GMT -5
Given their unwillingness to spend on the bullpen, an unlimited payroll forever is not an option. They look like they want to reset the tax next season. Agreed, something's gotta give here but I think they're going to hang on to a lot of them. Maybe they lose 2 guys between Xander, JBJ, JD, Porcello or Sale, even then it doesn't take them out of "contender" status IMO.
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Post by Gwell55 on Feb 27, 2019 18:43:06 GMT -5
Given their unwillingness to spend on the bullpen, an unlimited payroll forever is not an option. They look like they want to reset the tax next season. It also makes it less likely that they'll agree to an extension of one of their core guys before the end of the 2019 MLB year, unless it somehow reduces the player's AAV. Not sure that's feasible with any of the realistic extension candidates. Betts' extension will be at more than a $20M AAV, Sale's will be at more than a $15M AAV, Xander's will be at more than a $12M AAV. Cot's has them per luxury tax purposes right now at $237.5M, so they don't have much wiggle room, which is why I just don't see them signing Betts before next offseason. If they want to stay under the limit this year, it makes it almost impossible to extend Xander or Sale before FA too Didn't they have a rule that helped with this if they signed an extension after the season opened for the year that let this year's salary count from the current contract and the new average started after this year? Or did they change that loophole after Adrian Gonzalez got his extension when we traded for him?
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Post by Oregon Norm on Feb 27, 2019 18:55:17 GMT -5
I agree, they should be competitive. There will still be talent and there's even some hope in what had looked to be a barren system. It will still be a hard swallow to watch them playing elsewhere.
This is a prospect site and we followed that load of talent into the majors. The hope was that they could deliver and, supplemented by really astute additions last year, that's exactly what they did. It seemed as if every pickup was exactly what they needed, and when: Martinez for the season, Pearce and Eovaldi to help push them through the post-season. Brilliant field management and in the front office as well. The more I read about how Dombrowski values the input and intelligence of his staff, how he leads by stepping aside and listening before he makes decisions, the more impressed I am. The best teams I ever worked on had that sort of give and take. I'll bet there's more of that stuff to come.
Good times for Boston baseball fans.
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Post by DesignatedForAssignment on Feb 28, 2019 18:50:25 GMT -5
Brentz traded to PHIL.
Per twitter
Edit: they got me to fall for it. I just noticed that Hanley signed with Indians
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Post by iakovos11 on Feb 28, 2019 20:50:29 GMT -5
Brentz traded to PHIL. Per twitter Pretty sure that was a joke, in response the word that Bryce was going to PHIL
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Feb 28, 2019 22:00:51 GMT -5
Multiple people tweeted to the SP account as though it was real. Nate Silver making the joke. Good times.
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