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2019-2020 Red Sox Offseason
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Post by telson13 on Nov 28, 2018 22:27:41 GMT -5
Sale has generally been healthy throughout his career, so I’m a little more sanguine than some about his shoulder issues. I think there’s a fair chance it was a minor one-time issue. Obviously, next year will reveal the truth. Looking at the Price, Grienke, and Kershaw deals, I think it’s pretty certain he gets 6-7/$180-$220M. If I’m the Sox, I’d consider that pretty strongly. I think Sale’s a significantly better pitcher than Cole (who I really like, btw), and I think it’ll stay that way for 3-4 years. If they could get him to extend now for 6/$170 tacked on, I’d do it. I know that’s risky, but it’s below-market for a true ace, and I think he provides excess value over the life of the deal. I would not bring Porcello back. The cost is too high for performance that could be replaced in large part for far less. I think they hope on Houck and Hernandez (and maybe Mata) stepping forward significantly and Shawaryn being maybe a 4/5, and take the risk. I’d *really* like it if they went after Jon Gray. His LOB was unsustainably high and he way underperformed his peripherals. The Rockies are odd and they might part with him for a package headlined by Chavis and another piece (plus some additional talent) if the Sox could swing a three-team and move Porcello. I’d really like to see them extend Bogaerts. I really don’t know what that would take. If he’s in the Heyward range (say, 7/$150), I’m totally ok with it. He’d be a 27-yo free agent, at an high-premium position, with some upside offensively. As I’ve said I think Lin can be a serviceable replacement given the $ savings (could be used, with a couple M more annually to, say, sign Cole, upgrading a rotation spot by that 2-3 WAR), but I think Bogey’s a good fit on this team and I think Cora will bring more out of him. Everyone keeps talking about Gray underperforming his Peripherals. I assume your talking about Fangraphs? He intrigues me for sure, but has some rather crazy trends. Like his career BABIP is way high year in and year out. He actually doesn't have home and road splits and gives up more hits on the road. Fangraphs will for sure rate him higher because strikeouts matter more to them than anything else. At the same time don't we have to worry about how much he gets hit in the National league? In the National league I just don't see how a 1.35 WHIP should equal a 4.08 FIP. I'd understand more if he had huge home and road splits, yet he doesn't. Don't get me wrong I'd love to target him as a guy that can improve. I'm just not sure he's an undervalued guy that is underperforming his peripherals. More like hoping a new team and pitching coach can finally unlock his full potential. www.denverpost.com/2018/07/04/rockies-2018-defense-outshining-2007-version/Just looking at the D, it seems they are rather good, so that doesn't seem to be the issue. The lack of real splits concerns me, but his LOB % last year was bizarrely low, which I think had a lot to do with the inflated ERA. He’s had some nagging injuries, but before ‘18 had pitched pretty well for CO. I think he’s still learning to “pitch”, hence the lack of real splits and the high BABIPs (Syndergaard has had the same issue). I’m more betting on the raw stuff and stretches of success, yes. It’s also why I think he’d come more cheaply than Paxton. The Rockies have had really good INF defense, but their OF isn’t great. I could be wrong tho, I haven’t actually looked at wOBAA vs xwOBA for him. He also had an 18.1% HR/FB rate, which is pretty likely to regress back down near 11-12%. I think he’s probably *relatively* undervalued because of the bad year last year, but you’re right, he’s not someone whose deeper peripherals scream “TOR”. His K and BB rates look great, so FG likes him. So, I pretty much agree with you. My point is that, as you say, he’s someone the Sox could actually get, because he’s been more 3/4 than 2. He still has upside but I do think he needs a change of scenery and new pitching coach. I guess I’m saying I believe in him being a better true talent than his numbers say, but because his numbers aren’t great, he’s actually within the Sox’s reach. I think he’s an ideal buy-low candidate: enough there to suggest he could put it all together (he hasn’t been a disaster, the stuff is still there, with inconsistent results), but not enough to price him out of their limited range. He’s already 27, so he should be in his prime. I think he might find it out of CO. The control years and his previous work suggest he’s a low-cost 4 at worst for the next three years, and probably not a significant step down from Porcello. But there’s very big upside.
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Post by telson13 on Nov 28, 2018 22:43:02 GMT -5
The Red Sox should be a World Series contender in 2020. So what they'd have to lose by trading him is a chance to win the World Series. Playing someone until he reaches free agency in order to win baseball games is not a loser's mentality. Under this idea, the Red Sox absolutely should have traded Pedro Martinez before 2004 and Jacoby Ellsbury before 2013. They'd have won neither of those World Series, but think of the future prospects they could have... also traded before they reached free agency. It would depend on the trade. I'm not suggesting to blindly dump the guy for two A-ball lottery tickets or that the team should just give up on 2020 altogether, but there seems to be some indecision on both sides as to what Mookie's future holds. If things become more certain, either the team doesn't want to pay or Mookie doesn't want to stay, then I think the team should objectively look at their options. They would get a haul if they traded him because he's one of the most elite guys in the game right now, so there's no guarantee that this would lead to a lost year in 2020 and would almost certainly make the team stronger beyond 2020. Again, I would love to see Mookie retire with the Red Sox, but there are lessons to be learned from how the Nationals handled Harper. I get your point; I think it all depends on how they look going into 2020. I’d be OK with the risk of him leaving if they have a great team around him and they look like WS contenders. But I also think you’re right in that they should certainly explore trading him (any trade obviously depends on return...if I’m the Sox I’d wanna be blown away) *as an option*. I think both sides have valid arguments, that’s why it’s such a difficult situation. I really hope he chooses to stay, and that he doesn’t just try to break the bank. I thought what Trout did signing an extension with the Angels is what I wish every situation with a great player and his developing team looked like: fair for both sides, a compromise that keeps a good match together. Seeing Mookie in another uni, after watching him from day 1 (and I did, cuz I saw his bonus and thought “this guy’s gotta be someone to follow”), would just be awful.
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Post by jimed14 on Nov 29, 2018 11:45:11 GMT -5
Everyone keeps talking about Gray underperforming his Peripherals. I assume your talking about Fangraphs? He intrigues me for sure, but has some rather crazy trends. Like his career BABIP is way high year in and year out. He actually doesn't have home and road splits and gives up more hits on the road. Fangraphs will for sure rate him higher because strikeouts matter more to them than anything else. At the same time don't we have to worry about how much he gets hit in the National league? In the National league I just don't see how a 1.35 WHIP should equal a 4.08 FIP. I'd understand more if he had huge home and road splits, yet he doesn't. Don't get me wrong I'd love to target him as a guy that can improve. I'm just not sure he's an undervalued guy that is underperforming his peripherals. More like hoping a new team and pitching coach can finally unlock his full potential. www.denverpost.com/2018/07/04/rockies-2018-defense-outshining-2007-version/Just looking at the D, it seems they are rather good, so that doesn't seem to be the issue. The lack of real splits concerns me, but his LOB % last year was bizarrely low, which I think had a lot to do with the inflated ERA. He’s had some nagging injuries, but before ‘18 had pitched pretty well for CO. I think he’s still learning to “pitch”, hence the lack of real splits and the high BABIPs (Syndergaard has had the same issue). I’m more betting on the raw stuff and stretches of success, yes. It’s also why I think he’d come more cheaply than Paxton. The Rockies have had really good INF defense, but their OF isn’t great. I could be wrong tho, I haven’t actually looked at wOBAA vs xwOBA for him. He also had an 18.1% HR/FB rate, which is pretty likely to regress back down near 11-12%. I think he’s probably *relatively* undervalued because of the bad year last year, but you’re right, he’s not someone whose deeper peripherals scream “TOR”. His K and BB rates look great, so FG likes him. So, I pretty much agree with you. My point is that, as you say, he’s someone the Sox could actually get, because he’s been more 3/4 than 2. He still has upside but I do think he needs a change of scenery and new pitching coach. I guess I’m saying I believe in him being a better true talent than his numbers say, but because his numbers aren’t great, he’s actually within the Sox’s reach. I think he’s an ideal buy-low candidate: enough there to suggest he could put it all together (he hasn’t been a disaster, the stuff is still there, with inconsistent results), but not enough to price him out of their limited range. He’s already 27, so he should be in his prime. I think he might find it out of CO. The control years and his previous work suggest he’s a low-cost 4 at worst for the next three years, and probably not a significant step down from Porcello. But there’s very big upside. I think Gray should bounce back. xwOBA by season: 2016: .308 2017: .303 2018: .305 SIERA by season: 2016: 3.72 2017: 3.74 2018: 3.68 xFIP by season: 2016: 3.61 2017: 3.45 2018: 3.47 He's really consistent if you look at it that way. I highly doubt that anyone in baseball just looks at his ERA from last season and thinks he's worth any less (other than the one less year of control obviously) because of it. It's mostly the home runs that killed his ERA, but his xSLG only rose from .378 to .392. I will say though, that he should throw a lot less fastballs. That's the pitch that gets hammered. His slider and curve get ridiculous whiff rates. This is the kind of pitcher that should be elite in the postseason if he's throwing the right pitch mix. In fact, he's kind of similar to Joe Kelly in that regard: I wish I had access to Kelly's Statcast data in the postseason to see if it was mainly the pitch mix that made him so good. If so, I'm 100% on board with bringing Kelly back to close.
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Post by huskies15 on Nov 29, 2018 12:53:38 GMT -5
People keep assuming that if Betts reaches free agency he is gone to the highest bidder, probably right, but why can't that bidder be the Red Sox?
It's not like they are pinching pennies. They're a big payroll club and are planning for that type of deal. It's a weird doom and gloom outlook on here when it comes to the open market.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Nov 29, 2018 15:35:41 GMT -5
Yeah, if the Red Sox are like 56-63 on July 30, 2020 they should consider trading Mookie Betts. They should not throw away a shot at the 2020 season beforehand because they're worried they won't re-sign him. They figure to be very good in 2020, largely because they'll have a 27-year-old Mookie Betts on the team. Yeah, although he'd just be a rental that point and if you're extremely lucky you're getting one top-50 guy for him. Here's my galaxy brain take: Mookie Betts is the best player the Red Sox have produced in at least twenty years and maybe a lot longer than that, and they should hold onto him as long as they possibly can, regardless of the cost.
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Post by telson13 on Nov 29, 2018 22:12:13 GMT -5
The lack of real splits concerns me, but his LOB % last year was bizarrely low, which I think had a lot to do with the inflated ERA. He’s had some nagging injuries, but before ‘18 had pitched pretty well for CO. I think he’s still learning to “pitch”, hence the lack of real splits and the high BABIPs (Syndergaard has had the same issue). I’m more betting on the raw stuff and stretches of success, yes. It’s also why I think he’d come more cheaply than Paxton. The Rockies have had really good INF defense, but their OF isn’t great. I could be wrong tho, I haven’t actually looked at wOBAA vs xwOBA for him. He also had an 18.1% HR/FB rate, which is pretty likely to regress back down near 11-12%. I think he’s probably *relatively* undervalued because of the bad year last year, but you’re right, he’s not someone whose deeper peripherals scream “TOR”. His K and BB rates look great, so FG likes him. So, I pretty much agree with you. My point is that, as you say, he’s someone the Sox could actually get, because he’s been more 3/4 than 2. He still has upside but I do think he needs a change of scenery and new pitching coach. I guess I’m saying I believe in him being a better true talent than his numbers say, but because his numbers aren’t great, he’s actually within the Sox’s reach. I think he’s an ideal buy-low candidate: enough there to suggest he could put it all together (he hasn’t been a disaster, the stuff is still there, with inconsistent results), but not enough to price him out of their limited range. He’s already 27, so he should be in his prime. I think he might find it out of CO. The control years and his previous work suggest he’s a low-cost 4 at worst for the next three years, and probably not a significant step down from Porcello. But there’s very big upside. I think Gray should bounce back. xwOBA by season: 2016: .308 2017: .303 2018: .305 SIERA by season: 2016: 3.72 2017: 3.74 2018: 3.68 xFIP by season: 2016: 3.61 2017: 3.45 2018: 3.47 He's really consistent if you look at it that way. I highly doubt that anyone in baseball just looks at his ERA from last season and thinks he's worth any less (other than the one less year of control obviously) because of it. It's mostly the home runs that killed his ERA, but his xSLG only rose from .378 to .392. I will say though, that he should throw a lot less fastballs. That's the pitch that gets hammered. His slider and curve get ridiculous whiff rates. This is the kind of pitcher that should be elite in the postseason if he's throwing the right pitch mix. In fact, he's kind of similar to Joe Kelly in that regard: I wish I had access to Kelly's Statcast data in the postseason to see if it was mainly the pitch mix that made him so good. If so, I'm 100% on board with bringing Kelly back to close. I’m too lazy rn to look but i wonder if Gray’s FB is hurt by Coors due to reduced movement/rise. I’d also like to know what he spins on the FB because if it’s pretty straight and middling spin-wise, your point might be even more germane. And if his spin rate is high but movement poor at altitude you’d expect some benefit at sea level. Frankly, his SL and CB should benefit as well. Idk why he totally abandoned the CH. Thanks for looking up the xwOBAs; I love SIERRA, too, so those were good to see. I think you’re right in that nobody’s going to suddenly think he’s a bum; analytics are too ingrained these days. But I do think there’s enough first-blush distaste for ERA and high HR rate (both noisy), that it colors the more informed opinion that follows. I just think it’s better for the Sox that he had a down year largely based on luck...even if the effect is minor, it helps their case. And I really like Gray going forward if he’s out of CO. I think he’s a 2 in Boston with a double digit non-zero chance of becoming a 1. Edit: duh, there’s spin rate right there in the table. Thanks Jimed!! Looks like Gray’s 4-seam is real low spin, makes sense that the LA is low. And Kelly’s CB is just damn good. Dude has GOT to cut down to 40% FB and boost his CH.
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Post by telson13 on Nov 29, 2018 22:31:12 GMT -5
The lack of real splits concerns me, but his LOB % last year was bizarrely low, which I think had a lot to do with the inflated ERA. He’s had some nagging injuries, but before ‘18 had pitched pretty well for CO. I think he’s still learning to “pitch”, hence the lack of real splits and the high BABIPs (Syndergaard has had the same issue). I’m more betting on the raw stuff and stretches of success, yes. It’s also why I think he’d come more cheaply than Paxton. The Rockies have had really good INF defense, but their OF isn’t great. I could be wrong tho, I haven’t actually looked at wOBAA vs xwOBA for him. He also had an 18.1% HR/FB rate, which is pretty likely to regress back down near 11-12%. I think he’s probably *relatively* undervalued because of the bad year last year, but you’re right, he’s not someone whose deeper peripherals scream “TOR”. His K and BB rates look great, so FG likes him. So, I pretty much agree with you. My point is that, as you say, he’s someone the Sox could actually get, because he’s been more 3/4 than 2. He still has upside but I do think he needs a change of scenery and new pitching coach. I guess I’m saying I believe in him being a better true talent than his numbers say, but because his numbers aren’t great, he’s actually within the Sox’s reach. I think he’s an ideal buy-low candidate: enough there to suggest he could put it all together (he hasn’t been a disaster, the stuff is still there, with inconsistent results), but not enough to price him out of their limited range. He’s already 27, so he should be in his prime. I think he might find it out of CO. The control years and his previous work suggest he’s a low-cost 4 at worst for the next three years, and probably not a significant step down from Porcello. But there’s very big upside. I think Gray should bounce back. xwOBA by season: 2016: .308 2017: .303 2018: .305 SIERA by season: 2016: 3.72 2017: 3.74 2018: 3.68 xFIP by season: 2016: 3.61 2017: 3.45 2018: 3.47 He's really consistent if you look at it that way. I highly doubt that anyone in baseball just looks at his ERA from last season and thinks he's worth any less (other than the one less year of control obviously) because of it. It's mostly the home runs that killed his ERA, but his xSLG only rose from .378 to .392. I will say though, that he should throw a lot less fastballs. That's the pitch that gets hammered. His slider and curve get ridiculous whiff rates. This is the kind of pitcher that should be elite in the postseason if he's throwing the right pitch mix. In fact, he's kind of similar to Joe Kelly in that regard: I wish I had access to Kelly's Statcast data in the postseason to see if it was mainly the pitch mix that made him so good. If so, I'm 100% on board with bringing Kelly back to close. Sheesh, looking at those tables, too, it really stands out how effective their secondaries are. I wish I could find it, but there was JUST an article on fg about the SL as a whiff pitch (talking about Corbin and some other backwards-pitching fellows). Here’s a bit more info on what makes for a whiff-inducing SL: www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/slider-effectiveness-spin-unexpected-results/Kelly obviously needs to throw his secondaries more. I mean, LOOK AT HIS CHANGEUP WHIFF RATE!!! If he went to a 40/30/15/15 mix he’d be unstoppable. And both he and Gray are right near that ideal FB-SL velo difference of 10 mph noted in the article. And, even more, I’d have to think both of Gray’s secondaries would really benefit from more dense air in terms of movement. You’re right...his fastball gets absolutely hammered. But I bet if he upped his SL/CB use, the effectiveness of well-spotted FB would synergistically improve. Seeing Barnes McCullers the Astros with 14/15 CB makes me think the Sox are inclined to encourage reduced FB use when appropriate. I think that works for a lot of pitchers, though not all...the Yankees are big on that approach but it seems to have hurt Gray. Definitely encouraging data on both J Gray and Kelly though...I’m totally sold on acquiring Gray through my 3-team MIL-BOS-CO plan 😂
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Post by telson13 on Nov 30, 2018 0:18:13 GMT -5
Maybe I'm reading too much into it, but it doesn't feel like there's enough variability in this equation to justify waiting it out beyond March of 2019. That would lead me to believe that either the Sox don't want to sign him at market value or Betts doesn't want to stay in Boston. If that's the case, what do you do? I mean, other teams aren't allowed to talk to him until November 2020. So he has no idea how high his actual market is, and even less so until Harper and Machado sign. Even if he's 85% sure he wants to stay in Boston, there's no reason for him not to go to free agency and see what other teams have to say. I hate this because it’s true. I just really wish he wanted to stay, and would sign an extension, conceding some $ for an ideal career situation. The Sox are annual contenders. They’re well-run. They’re well-managed. They just won a WS. Mookie could be a Sox lifer, and he’s looking like he has a realistic shot at being an inner-circle HOFer (I know, that’s a long way off, but...seriously). He has great teammates and there’s great chemistry here. John Henry is an absolutely terrific owner, and he hires good people. I mean...what more can a guy want? The city and fans love Mookie. I guess I really don’t understand people motivated by $. There’s so much more to life, and happiness. And when you’re talking THOSE $: like, more than a third of a BILLION over your career...what difference does it make? We’re talking small percentages of an already obscene amount of money. 10/300 vs 10/350...that’s a lot, but at that point it’s really not going to affect his lifestyle in the least. And look at Ellsbury...I’m sorry, but the extra $ aren’t going to buy happiness from feeling like a bum and a failure. I mean, for the average person an extra 10% means something: better school for your kids, vacation, a much nicer car, a nicer home...but at the money ballplayers make? What, 30 McLarens and 30 Lamborghinis instead of 25 and 25? It makes no sense to me.
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Post by incandenza on Nov 30, 2018 0:28:37 GMT -5
I mean, other teams aren't allowed to talk to him until November 2020. So he has no idea how high his actual market is, and even less so until Harper and Machado sign. Even if he's 85% sure he wants to stay in Boston, there's no reason for him not to go to free agency and see what other teams have to say. I hate this because it’s true. I just really wish he wanted to stay, and would sign an extension, conceding some $ for an ideal career situation. The Sox are annual contenders. They’re well-run. They’re well-managed. They just won a WS. Mookie could be a Sox lifer, and he’s looking like he has a realistic shot at being an inner-circle HOFer (I know, that’s a long way off, but...seriously). He has great teammates and there’s great chemistry here. John Henry is an absolutely terrific owner, and he hires good people. I mean...what more can a guy want? The city and fans love Mookie. I guess I really don’t understand people motivated by $. There’s so much more to life, and happiness. And when you’re talking THOSE $: like, more than a third of a BILLION over your career...what difference does it make? We’re talking small percentages of an already obscene amount of money. 10/300 vs 10/350...that’s a lot, but at that point it’s really not going to affect his lifestyle in the least. And look at Ellsbury...I’m sorry, but the extra $ aren’t going to buy happiness from feeling like a bum and a failure. I mean, for the average person an extra 10% means something: better school for your kids, vacation, a much nicer car, a nicer home...but at the money ballplayers make? What, 30 McLarens and 30 Lamborghinis instead of 25 and 25? It makes no sense to me. This is entirely 100% speculative, but occasionally I wonder if Mookie thinks about the treatment Adam Jones got from the right field fans in Fenway, and thinks about the fact that he plays right in front of those same fans, and wonders if Boston is really the place he wants to spend his whole career.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Nov 30, 2018 1:57:27 GMT -5
I hate this because it’s true. I just really wish he wanted to stay, and would sign an extension, conceding some $ for an ideal career situation. The Sox are annual contenders. They’re well-run. They’re well-managed. They just won a WS. Mookie could be a Sox lifer, and he’s looking like he has a realistic shot at being an inner-circle HOFer (I know, that’s a long way off, but...seriously). He has great teammates and there’s great chemistry here. John Henry is an absolutely terrific owner, and he hires good people. I mean...what more can a guy want? The city and fans love Mookie. I guess I really don’t understand people motivated by $. There’s so much more to life, and happiness. And when you’re talking THOSE $: like, more than a third of a BILLION over your career...what difference does it make? We’re talking small percentages of an already obscene amount of money. 10/300 vs 10/350...that’s a lot, but at that point it’s really not going to affect his lifestyle in the least. And look at Ellsbury...I’m sorry, but the extra $ aren’t going to buy happiness from feeling like a bum and a failure. I mean, for the average person an extra 10% means something: better school for your kids, vacation, a much nicer car, a nicer home...but at the money ballplayers make? What, 30 McLarens and 30 Lamborghinis instead of 25 and 25? It makes no sense to me. This is entirely 100% speculative, but occasionally I wonder if Mookie thinks about the treatment Adam Jones got from the right field fans in Fenway, and thinks about the fact that he plays right in front of those same fans, and wonders if Boston is really the place he wants to spend his whole career. Talk about overreacting to one event that was a few people. It's certainly not most Red Sox fans and every team will have fans like that. That's right up there with guys won't sign with the Dodgers because a few fans almost killed a Giants fan years back.
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Post by DesignatedForAssignment on Nov 30, 2018 3:14:53 GMT -5
From what I read,
Tonight, midnight, 11/30 is the tender deadline. So Saturday, we will have a list of non-tender free agents.
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Post by jimed14 on Nov 30, 2018 10:43:00 GMT -5
jlebowski, I'd say that it didn't matter much if Ellsbury or Hamilton changed teams. They were just going to decline rapidly no matter what. If the Red Sox gave Carl Crawford back to the Rays and paid his entire salary he was still going to suck.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Nov 30, 2018 18:06:47 GMT -5
I mean, for the average person an extra 10% means something: better school for your kids, vacation, a much nicer car, a nicer home...but at the money ballplayers make? What, 30 McLarens and 30 Lamborghinis instead of 25 and 25? It makes no sense to me. Maybe he wants to own the Lamborghini factory. There's no upper limit on the utility of money.
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Post by telson13 on Dec 2, 2018 0:25:06 GMT -5
I hate this because it’s true. I just really wish he wanted to stay, and would sign an extension, conceding some $ for an ideal career situation. The Sox are annual contenders. They’re well-run. They’re well-managed. They just won a WS. Mookie could be a Sox lifer, and he’s looking like he has a realistic shot at being an inner-circle HOFer (I know, that’s a long way off, but...seriously). He has great teammates and there’s great chemistry here. John Henry is an absolutely terrific owner, and he hires good people. I mean...what more can a guy want? The city and fans love Mookie. I guess I really don’t understand people motivated by $. There’s so much more to life, and happiness. And when you’re talking THOSE $: like, more than a third of a BILLION over your career...what difference does it make? We’re talking small percentages of an already obscene amount of money. 10/300 vs 10/350...that’s a lot, but at that point it’s really not going to affect his lifestyle in the least. And look at Ellsbury...I’m sorry, but the extra $ aren’t going to buy happiness from feeling like a bum and a failure. I mean, for the average person an extra 10% means something: better school for your kids, vacation, a much nicer car, a nicer home...but at the money ballplayers make? What, 30 McLarens and 30 Lamborghinis instead of 25 and 25? It makes no sense to me. This is entirely 100% speculative, but occasionally I wonder if Mookie thinks about the treatment Adam Jones got from the right field fans in Fenway, and thinks about the fact that he plays right in front of those same fans, and wonders if Boston is really the place he wants to spend his whole career. I worry about that too. The sad part is, I think it happens everywhere (I’ve spent plenty of time in Atlanta, Houston, Palo Alto, central Maine), and I think it’s a “story” because it’s Boston. But you’re absolutely right, I can’t imagine that NOT being something in the back of his mind.
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Post by telson13 on Dec 2, 2018 0:33:40 GMT -5
jlebowski, I'd say that it didn't matter much if Ellsbury or Hamilton changed teams. They were just going to decline rapidly no matter what. If the Red Sox gave Carl Crawford back to the Rays and paid his entire salary he was still going to suck. I don’t really agree; in Hamilton’s case, he had an underlying psychosocial issue (addiction) that really requires a strong support network. I think the move really negatively affected him for that reason. Ellsbury...yeah, idk, I think he was close to decline, but there’s a lot that goes into honing skills and maintaining them that has a social spect: accountability, consistency, etc. I do think that for some guys, especially those with less internal motivation, changing teams can really affect work ethic, passion, resolve, etc...and it shows up in performance. Crawford was due to decline *some*, but he fell off a cliff. And Sandoval (largely because of the money, but probably out of a lack of accountability and loyalty to teammates) quite clearly let himself go completely on changing teams.
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Post by telson13 on Dec 2, 2018 0:39:29 GMT -5
I mean, for the average person an extra 10% means something: better school for your kids, vacation, a much nicer car, a nicer home...but at the money ballplayers make? What, 30 McLarens and 30 Lamborghinis instead of 25 and 25? It makes no sense to me. Maybe he wants to own the Lamborghini factory. There's no upper limit on the utility of money. That’s true, depending on one’s ability to dream. I think vision has a lot to do with it. But I think, at that point, there are really minimal differences in the options that wealth affords. And in the end, especially in the absence of vision, there’s little likelihood it affects true happiness. But, of course, there are people for whom the accumulation of wealth is its own reward. So I’m not speaking of it as a truism, simply that i just don’t get it.
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Post by telson13 on Dec 2, 2018 2:21:38 GMT -5
Since I’m here, I’m going to throw out a few thoughts on NEXT offseason: 1) there’s obviously going to be a lot of flux on the starting staff. At the very least, there are two major FAs in Sale (huge) and Porcello (major, given his durability and generally steady performance). Both will command very big deals and have skillsets that are tough to replace. But, there is a bright spot: after 2019, a lot of questions will have been answered in large part: Sale’s shoulder will probably reveal itself with regards to severity of the issue. And Porcello’s particular value: his reliability/health, will be redefined some in light of the Sox’s depth. And, there should be more clarity on just how good Rodriguez can be counted on to be, as well as Wright’s health, and the ultimate roles/value of Johnson (a darkhorse #3/4) and Velasquez. And that’s because (probable season-starting assignments in parens) Shawaryn (AAA), Hernandez (AA), and Houck (AA) will all have full seasons pitching in close proximity to MLB.
I think the Sox will have a MUCH better handle on where those guys fit for 2020, what level of performance (particularly floor) they might be expected to have in MLB for the next few years, and what their ultimate roles might be (Back-end starter vs mid-rotation vs bullpen). Those are three young, talented pitchers who all have significant question marks, but who offer league-minimum cost. If one or two (or fingers crossed, all) continue to develop as they did this past year, at the very least the Sox will have one or two back-end starter options and probably a fairly good bullpen arm. In the ideal scenario, Shawaryn makes the majors mid-summer and possibly Hernandez does too out of the bullpen or even rotation, if he really shoved. Houck probably ends the year in AAA if all goes well, or even in MLB if he too picks up developmental pace. Worst case they all step back, but at least the Sox know what they need to do. They should also know a lot more about Groome, who’s due back late summer.
2) The bullpen will see some changes, too...but there should also be more certainty. Whoever they sign will probably be under contract for 3 years, presuming they get a traditional closer (maybe just 2 if it’s Soria or Robertson). We’ll know better if Brasier was a flash in the pan, or a viable late-innings guy. We’ll know if Barnes has developed enough consistency to be an elite/near-elite guy, or is just very good. And, probably most importantly, there will be some evidence as to the readiness/viability of Lakins and Feltman, both of who have legit late-innings potential. I’m guessing Lakins gets a shot (health permitting, if he pitches as he did in AAA this past year) by early June at the latest. He could make it out of ST. And Feltman could arrive post-deadline, or possibly just before to see if he fills a need, if he repeats last year’s performance from high A (guessing he starts there) through AA/AAA. Those two represent substantial long-term savings vs FAs if they are what we hope: a multi-inning high-leverage reliever (Lakins...maybe a Chad Green type, if all goes well), and a legit closer (Feltman, who’s also been tested beyond one inning).
3) They’ll have a lot more data on Swihart, Pedroia, Lin, and Devers, and what sort of production they can be counted on for. Good or bad, they’ll at least know how to address 2b, 3b, 1b, and Bogey’s impending FA at SS. Dalbec will also have a full season at the upper levels, and whether or not his hit tool is sufficient for an MLB role. And, maybe particularly importantly, Michael Chavis should get enough MLB time to see what his bat can do, and if they need to find a spot to put it.
Basically, although they don’t have any “sure-thing,” or even particularly flashy top-100 guys, they have a bunch of players with a lot of talent but also major questions who thus look to be role players in the near term (and possibly long-term). But those guys have real value, too. Even if none are stars, having their low salaries filling roles could save the Sox $30-$40M annually, helping them to KEEP the stars they already have. And if they get lucky, and one (or more) of those rough diamonds polishes up to be an above-average player, it could really extend their window. I’m actually really excited to see this less-heralded but still very important wave make their move.
And looking beyond, 2019 will be a big year for the farm down low. Guys like Mata, Durran, Casas, Northcutt, Howlett, Flores, Diaz, Decker, Chatham, Montero...there’s enough low-level talent that with a good year, this system could really jump up the rankings.
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Post by m1keyboots on Dec 2, 2018 4:40:12 GMT -5
This is entirely 100% speculative, but occasionally I wonder if Mookie thinks about the treatment Adam Jones got from the right field fans in Fenway, and thinks about the fact that he plays right in front of those same fans, and wonders if Boston is really the place he wants to spend his whole career. I worry about that too. The sad part is, I think it happens everywhere (I’ve spent plenty of time in Atlanta, Houston, Palo Alto, central Maine), and I think it’s a “story” because it’s Boston. But you’re absolutely right, I can’t imagine that NOT being something in the back of his mind. I don't like much adding onto a long thread, but I will. having been to Fenway many times much like a lot of us I think we can all say there are some downsides to Fenway Park and the city when it comes to baseball and players wanting to stay there.the team does have the fact that many of the core players grew up in the system with him, but mentor David Price won't be around for too much longer, and neither will JD Martinez if we're talking terms of lifetime contract. mookie has already said many times he does not want to be in the spotlight, and Boston seems to be a city that eats players alive who do not relish the spotlight God forbid they do something wrong. for goodness sakes nomar garciaparra save somebody's life in the harbor and to this day they are still sections who boo him ;/At least he doesn't have Boras
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gerry
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Post by gerry on Dec 2, 2018 5:14:26 GMT -5
Thanks for poining that out, Telson. They can spend a bit in 2019 because they likely aim to get under the tax again in 2020. But 2020 is by no means the end of this little “dynasty.” 2020 will include some combination of Lin, Chavis, Dalbec, Lakins, Feltman, Hernandez, Shawaryn at league minimum + Devers and Beni. In 2020 they can get under the tax AND compete, while affording to maintaining most of the established core.
With the departures of Porcello, Panda, MM, Pearce, Nunez and others after 2019 there will be plenty to extend XB, maybe Sale. Despite the 2020 cap the Sox will still be a contender. After that, they can spend and contend again for 2021 forward with most of the core expensively in place, and the new wave of “average” or better kids earning league minimum. The Sox window isn’t shutting anytime soon. The lineup of Mookie, Beni, JDM, XB, Devers, ?, lasting for many more years will help insure that.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Dec 2, 2018 6:05:53 GMT -5
The good news on the starting pitching front is that Price and Eduardo is here for 3 years. That gives you some clarity in filling two spots. Johnson is good depth behind those 2. Hopefully Eovaldi and Sale joins this group.
The Sox have some leeway and time into finding out if all four of Groome, Mata, Houck, and Hernandez are legit starting pitchers in the high minors and start giving competition at the major league level at some point.
The bullpen is going to be the strength of the Sox past 2019. Feltman, Lankins, and Hernandez (if he gets shoehorned in the bullpen), feel like sure things and could be your 7th, 8th, and 9th inning options past 2019. As Price and Sale ages, it'll probably be key to shorten games and win that way.
The position players is where everything can go to crap here. One of JDM, Xander, or Mookie is probably leaving past 2020 and these were your 3 best offensive players in 2018. Not to mention JBJ could leave too, who is decent himself. I think the rise of Devers offensively and maybe Chavis might help mitigate one of these potential losses, but most likely it could go downhill quickly if Chavis can't hit or stay healthy like he has in the past. Dalbec, Chavis, and Lin have low floors that could hurt the Sox if they don't pan out as hopefully expected.
The Sox are probably going to have to trade for a outside regular or maybe 2 outside regular starting position players (or prospects) at some point outside of the organization and get creative. The starting pitching and bullpen plan could all go downhill too if there's injuries or flameouts in the Houck, Mata, Groome, Hernandez, Feltman, and Lakins department (those are the big ones at least).
Dave Dombrowski also has his contract only running through 2020 also, so it makes you wonder when he's ready to retire.
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Post by telson13 on Dec 2, 2018 14:41:43 GMT -5
I think the one guy who really gets lost in the shuffle (and UMass has boosted him for a while) is Shawaryn. He was a potential first-rounder who slipped due to injury. He’s very steadily moved up the ladder and stayed healthy doing so. He’s become marginally more fly-ball heavy with time, and he gave up too many hr in AAA last year, but he pitched fairly well after the promotion. He also has a good AFL. Just as Brian Johnson has value that’s easy to miss, I think Shawaryn does too. He pitched 160 innings including the AFL, so he’d really be limited only by performance in terms of innings. And he’s pretty much MLB-ready.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Dec 2, 2018 14:44:12 GMT -5
I view Shawaryn as the next Hembree replacement. He could be a little bit more valuable then Hembree because he might give you 2-3 innings out of the bullpen a lot.
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gerry
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Post by gerry on Dec 2, 2018 18:41:55 GMT -5
I view Shawaryn as the next Hembree replacement. He could be a little bit more valuable then Hembree because he might give you 2-3 innings out of the bullpen a lot. He may wind up with Lakins and Feltman in the Pen. That would be good. Even better if he competes with D.Hernandez for a starting role. A worst case 2020 scenario of Price, Eovaldi, ERod, Wright, Shawaryn or Hernandez with Johnson and Velasquez is still really good. Especially with a strong, versatile Pen. Especially if it allowed the Sox to retain, for several more years, the offense and defense of a lineup of Betts, Beni, JD, XB, Devers, Pedey, Chavis?, C, JBJ. A worthy goal.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Dec 2, 2018 19:24:31 GMT -5
I view Shawaryn as the next Hembree replacement. He could be a little bit more valuable then Hembree because he might give you 2-3 innings out of the bullpen a lot. He may wind up with Lakins and Feltman in the Pen. That would be good. Even better if he competes with D.Hernandez for a starting role. A worst case 2020 scenario of Price, Eovaldi, ERod, Wright, Shawaryn or Hernandez with Johnson and Velasquez is still really good. Especially with a strong, versatile Pen. Especially if it allowed the Sox to retain, for several more years, the offense and defense of a lineup of Betts, Beni, JD, XB, Devers, Pedey, Chavis?, C, JBJ. A worthy goal. A worst case scenario rotation does not include Eovaldi. Worse case he's elsewhere. And if that's their rotation in 2020 there are still going to be big question marks, especially in comparison to other good teams. In your scenario Sale is gone and hasn't been replaced. That's a big dropoff.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Dec 2, 2018 19:41:48 GMT -5
He may wind up with Lakins and Feltman in the Pen. That would be good. Even better if he competes with D.Hernandez for a starting role. A worst case 2020 scenario of Price, Eovaldi, ERod, Wright, Shawaryn or Hernandez with Johnson and Velasquez is still really good. Especially with a strong, versatile Pen. Especially if it allowed the Sox to retain, for several more years, the offense and defense of a lineup of Betts, Beni, JD, XB, Devers, Pedey, Chavis?, C, JBJ. A worthy goal. A worst case scenario rotation does not include Eovaldi. Worse case he's elsewhere. And if that's their rotation in 2020 there are still going to be big question marks, especially in comparison to other good teams. In your scenario Sale is gone and hasn't been replaced. That's a big dropoff. That seems worst case type stuff to me. There's zero chance they let Sale, Porcello, and Eovaldi all leave and don't replace any of them.
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