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2019-2020 Red Sox Offseason
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Dec 2, 2018 19:49:59 GMT -5
He may wind up with Lakins and Feltman in the Pen. That would be good. Even better if he competes with D.Hernandez for a starting role. A worst case 2020 scenario of Price, Eovaldi, ERod, Wright, Shawaryn or Hernandez with Johnson and Velasquez is still really good. Especially with a strong, versatile Pen. Especially if it allowed the Sox to retain, for several more years, the offense and defense of a lineup of Betts, Beni, JD, XB, Devers, Pedey, Chavis?, C, JBJ. A worthy goal. A worst case scenario rotation does not include Eovaldi. Worse case he's elsewhere. And if that's their rotation in 2020 there are still going to be big question marks, especially in comparison to other good teams. In your scenario Sale is gone and hasn't been replaced. That's a big dropoff. Yeap. Sale is almost a must sign for the future or you might just kiss away the division past 2019. Unless Dombrowski can pull away with another Scherzer out of no where, just put up with Sale's fatigue issues in second halves of seasons.
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Post by jimed14 on Dec 2, 2018 20:05:21 GMT -5
A worst case scenario rotation does not include Eovaldi. Worse case he's elsewhere. And if that's their rotation in 2020 there are still going to be big question marks, especially in comparison to other good teams. In your scenario Sale is gone and hasn't been replaced. That's a big dropoff. Yeap. Sale is almost a must sign for the future or you might just kiss away the division past 2019. Unless Dombrowski can pull away with another Scherzer out of no where, just put up with Sale's fatigue issues in second halves of seasons. The problem is that there’s close to a 0% chance that future Sale can replicate what he’s done in the past yet he’ll be making 2-3 times as much.
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Post by telson13 on Dec 2, 2018 20:07:03 GMT -5
Thanks for poining that out, Telson. They can spend a bit in 2019 because they likely aim to get under the tax again in 2020. But 2020 is by no means the end of this little “dynasty.” 2020 will include some combination of Lin, Chavis, Dalbec, Lakins, Feltman, Hernandez, Shawaryn at league minimum + Devers and Beni. In 2020 they can get under the tax AND compete, while affording to maintaining most of the established core. With the departures of Porcello, Panda, MM, Pearce, Nunez and others after 2019 there will be plenty to extend XB, maybe Sale. Despite the 2020 cap the Sox will still be a contender. After that, they can spend and contend again for 2021 forward with most of the core expensively in place, and the new wave of “average” or better kids earning league minimum. The Sox window isn’t shutting anytime soon. The lineup of Mookie, Beni, JDM, XB, Devers, ?, lasting for many more years will help insure that. Gerry, I think the best (and most important) part is that, as you say, they can spend for 2019. And i really think they ought to consider that in light of the 8 players (Lin, Chavis, Shawaryn, Hernandez, Houck, Lakins, Feltman, Mata) they have who are (to varying degrees) possible 2019 and likely 2020 contributors. Some, like Mata or Houck, are unlikely to make it in ‘19 but could arrive mid-2020. Lin has already shown himself to be capable of being an average contributor, while Lakins, Chavis and Shawaryn are right on the cusp. As you say, combine that with exiting salaries (Porcello, $20M, Sandoval, $19M, Moreland and Pearce $13M, Munez $5M) and they should have the means to stay under cap but still remain highly competitive in 2020. They also have the option of, say, breaking in the young pitchers in bullpen or even “rover” roles. The potential/likely improvement from some younger guys like Devers, Beni, Swihart, Lin, even old man Barnes...it means they can probably absorb some of the production hit in, say, letting Porcello walk. That salary might go essentially directly to Bogaerts on a 7/$150 or so deal, but if the incoming class can produce just one #4/5-caliber starter, that’s a (temporary) drop-off of just 1-2 wins. That can probably easily be made up elsewhere. What I propose is that the Sox use their ability to spend in 2019, coupled with the proximity of five pitchers who could play temporary or permanent roles in the bullpen (but probably not until mid-year), to acquire and possibly flip higher-end relievers. For one, they have needs at two bullpen spots. Even if Kelly re-ups on, say, a 3/$27M deal, they still need another high-leverage guy. So I say sign Britton (3/$30), Soria (2/$19), AND Robertson (2/$25?). Move Hembree and/or Workman. The return might not be much, but it’ll be *something*, maybe 2-4 FV35-40 guys in the lower minors, preferably in low or even high-A, who are likely future relievers. Soria has been very steady and quite good, if not flashy. He had the lowest qualified EV-against in baseball last year, at 83.6 mph baseballsavant.mlb.com/statcast_leaderboard?year=2018&abs=150&player_type=pitcher. He’s older and considered second-tier as a closer, so he should be obtainable on a shorter deal for not too much. Robertson’s higher profile, but older, so he might command marginally more. And Britton is young enough and showed enough at the end of last year (while being two years removed from being truly elite) that I think he’s worth the risk on a 3-year, especially given his upside, and the cost of quality relief...there’s a good bet that, on a 3/30, his deal won’t be much underwater even if he’s just good, not great. By the time the deadline rolls around, the young guys should be knocking on the door, particularly Lakins and Shawaryn. They could bring up both (give Shawaryn some reps out of the pen to see if his stuff plays up; they could also try it with Darwinzon) and see what they offer/where they fit. Plenty of teams (Braves and Cardinals being the biggies) break in starters in relief. If the young guys look really good, the Sox can trade one or two of the relievers they signed at the deadline. All three have track records, and closers are always in demand at the deadline. And both Robertson and Soria would have 1.5 years left...so the return would be a bit better since they’re not just rentals. But, they’d also be fairly low-risk to an acquiring team, since they’d have limited guaranteed money (13-20M left). Worst case, the young guys aren’t ready or the guys they sign aren’t doing well. It’s unlikely all three struggle, but the guys on 2-year deals could almost certainly be moved in the off-season. Depending on how they do, they might return a lot or a little. But looking at Trevor Rosenthal’s deal, **somebody** would take them. Someone would probably take Britton, at 31, on a 2/20 flier, too. The Sox could shed some or all of that salary to fit their needs, they have multiple contingencies since it’s *three* pitchers, and they get time to assess their youth before they really start “needing” them to reduce payroll in 2020. I just see very little downside unless there’s total calamity, as long as they could get them on 2,2, and 3 years. And if things break right, the Sox would get a really nice prospect haul from moving Workman/Hembree and then one or two of the guys they signed, not to mention the value in-season of an outstanding ‘pen.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Dec 2, 2018 20:45:24 GMT -5
Yeap. Sale is almost a must sign for the future or you might just kiss away the division past 2019. Unless Dombrowski can pull away with another Scherzer out of no where, just put up with Sale's fatigue issues in second halves of seasons. The problem is that there’s close to a 0% chance that future Sale can replicate what he’s done in the past yet he’ll be making 2-3 times as much. Yeap, but he might give 75-80 percent of it though. The Sox have no one in house like him and no trade assets outside of Devers and Benintendi to get a 25 year old top of the rotation type. You're stuck here. No easy answer for this.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Dec 2, 2018 21:14:03 GMT -5
Yeap. Sale is almost a must sign for the future or you might just kiss away the division past 2019. Unless Dombrowski can pull away with another Scherzer out of no where, just put up with Sale's fatigue issues in second halves of seasons. The problem is that there’s close to a 0% chance that future Sale can replicate what he’s done in the past yet he’ll be making 2-3 times as much. Yeah, that's kind of what I'm getting at. Chris Sale might not be able to replace Chris Sale and that's a big dropoff/loss and there is no Moncada/Kopech/Basabe for Sale or Pavano/Armas for Pedro deal awaiting the Red Sox around the corner. The farm isn't in that kind of shape as of this point. Really, Sale's health will determine where things go from here. He's the best pitcher in baseball by a lot from April thru July and there's a ton of value in that and then there's a dropoff thereafter. It's hard to know exactly how bright the future is for the Sox come 2020. We don't know who's staying or going. All we know is that the farm system doesn't have much in the way of impact players immediately other than some promising relievers, although I'm sure the Sox have high hopes that Feltman makes a big impact sooner than later although I have a feeling Dombrowski would have dealt him without thinking twice had the Sox been able to get Diaz without having to deal with Cano's contract. For me, 2019 is still a season of going for it. It's not hard to imagine the Sox getting better production out of catcher, 2b, and 3b particularly. It's also hard to imagine everything going right for them the way it did in 2018. It's like just about every little thing and big thing lined up perfectly for the Red Sox in 2018, which is rare. The Sox will be a huge handful in 2019, but the Yankees are still on their improving path and Houston is still downright scary. I wouldn't expect them to fall off a cliff in 2020 although if Mookie does leave in 2021 that would sting a lot, but who knows what the rest of the team looks like by then? All I know is Bogaerts would be replaced by Lin probably and maybe Chatham would step up, but truthfully neither have the pedigree of Bogaerts who would be a big loss for their lineup. Maybe JDM stays at a bigger salary, but who knows if he stays as ridiculous a hitter as he is now as he is now? But his loss would be a huge hole in the lineup that I wouldn't expect a Chavis or Dalbec to fill. Porcello's numbers are replaceable, but his reliabilty is hard to replace. The guy never misses a start and he allows the Brian Johnsons and Hector Velazquezes of the world to remain as depth starters where they are at their most valuable. Try to rely on 30 starts each from those guys and the results might be very disappointing. If they get about 10 each, you probably get good results. Kimbrel will be a loss, although I won't miss the high wire act and have no problem seeing how his career could suddenly grind to a halt in a Mitch Williams sort of way. But still, all in all, he did an excellent job as Sox closer and that will be tough to replace. Maybe Barnes steps up or they bring in Kelly who can replicate Kimbrel's high wire act? Or they get somebody from the outside who probably won't be as good? Maybe they bring Koji out of retirement? Nah, probably not. And what does Pedroia look like as time rolls on up to 2021? I'm certain Devers and Benni will improve and Mookie will continue to be a monster although I can't see him being as sensational as he was in 2018 - that's virtually impossible. Maybe E-Rod takes the next step in the rotation. I believe in Wright's abilities, but I don't believe in his health so it's tough to pencil him in firmly to a future rotation. And at some point the Sox will need an OF. They'd be foolish to extend JBJ beyond 2020 - that defense won't hold up during the contract and his offense wouldn't be good enough to compensate, so they'll need somebody come 2021 and hopefully not need 2 OF should Mookie decide to leave. Right now the outfield in the minor leagues is very thin. There's no rotation help really. Shawaryn might spot start and help a bullpen but my guess is that he's the next Jalen Beeks, dealt away to resolve an issue come 7/31. And we don't know if Hernandez can harness his control to become a starter. It's tough throwing a ton of pitches and making it beyond the 5th inning. He might really be a reliever, as might be the case with Shawaryn and Houck. So it's hard to forecast major success in the future (2020 and 2021) and it's also hard to really forecast them falling off a cliff. I don't see the Sox going from 108 wins to 75 wins, but I can see some high 80s, low 90s, and tough Yankee teams ahead to deal with as their younger players mature the way the Sox young players have now matured.
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Post by telson13 on Dec 2, 2018 23:35:32 GMT -5
I think they really gotta hope that one of Hernandez/Houck/Mata/Groome reaches their 10% outcome and becomes a 2. And, that at least one of the others is a 3/4. That’s all within a roughly 3-yr timeframe. They could forego Eovaldi and put Johnson in the rotation, and save those $ for Gerrit Cole, but that hurts 2019. I’m not yet convinced that they shouldn’t extend Sale. Halladay had 4 1/2 excellent seasons after 30, then retired. Scherzer and Verlander (who looked done at 32) are still going strong at 35. Greinke had several outstanding years after 30 and is still good, if not worth his contract. OTOH, Kershaw looks sadly mortal at just 30, and Pedro didn’t last past 33-34 really. Felix Hernandez’s career has gone off a cliff at 30. I don’t think you can really tell...if the injury is a significant problem, it’ll affect his market. In the end, they may not be able to replace him (even with himself), but that’s less of an issue if they can get low-cost high-end production from one or two of the younger guys, and if Rodriguez takes another step forward from 2/3 to 1a/2 (and stays healthy).
I think it’s important that they start working to identify upside but-low candidates like Jon Gray, or try to pry some young arms away from teams like the Braves. Finding premium pitching is a numbers game. That’s why I’d like to see them stock up on high-leverage relievers on shorter deals. They don’t have the means to trade for a true 1, but they could get a bunch of future 3s and hope one breaks through to TOR level. And even if they don’t, a cost-controlled 3 is a valuable asset. I’m concerned about the OF situation in a few years, but there’s time to address that. I think the trick is creating an overstock of an in-demand asset like high-leverage relievers, and then dealing from redundancy for youth.
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Dec 3, 2018 0:02:47 GMT -5
Ideally I think you’d go all in on 2019 and then rebuild but there is that crowd that thinks we’re above that sort of thing in boston.
From where I’m sitting, I’m not sure we have much of a choice with the depleted farm system and the way the contracts are lined up unless we get lucky with mid tier free agents like in 2013.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Dec 3, 2018 1:13:23 GMT -5
There is a 100 different ways to build a team and address needs. You can't even talk about rebuilding unless you know what the Red Sox will be willing to spend. The core of the line-up is very young and every pitcher ages differently.
I could get behind a bridge year or a retool type year or two, but not a rebuild. You just don't rebuild when you have a younger core and what one long-term contract that is big. We aren't the Marlins! We can spend 250 plus million on payroll and still make a ton of money. Nevermind Hanley coming off the books and Sandoval next year. Heck teams rebuild to get to the poing we now have, not so they don't have to give out long-term contracts.
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Post by James Dunne on Dec 3, 2018 9:35:31 GMT -5
TLDR version of this thread seems to be that the Red Sox are really going to be screwed if they fail to sign any of their players who reach free agency at some point in the future and then also don't use that money to replace them. Which is, y'know, technically accurate.
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Post by jimed14 on Dec 3, 2018 10:20:06 GMT -5
There is a 100 different ways to build a team and address needs. You can't even talk about rebuilding unless you know what the Red Sox will be willing to spend. The core of the line-up is very young and every pitcher ages differently. I could get behind a bridge year or a retool type year or two, but not a rebuild. You just don't rebuild when you have a younger core and what one long-term contract that is big. We aren't the Marlins! We can spend 250 plus million on payroll and still make a ton of money. Nevermind Hanley coming off the books and Sandoval next year. Heck teams rebuild to get to the poing we now have, not so they don't have to give out long-term contracts. When you don't have a farm system feeding the majors, the options are to either rebuild or to try to re-sign your own players to stupid long and expensive contracts while they're on the decline. There is nowhere to go but down at that point. Eventually not having a farm system will always catch up to a team. All of the ways that big spending teams could avoid rebuilding have been closed down such as the crazy draft pick comp for free agents leaving, the overspending on the draft, the overspending on international players, the buying of free agents who don't decline until they're 38 because they're on PEDs, etc. This doesn't even take into account the needed trades to fill holes that can't be made during the season because they don't have the prospects to make them or the lack of depth to fill in for injuries. There is just no avoiding a rebuild anymore. It will happen at some point. It's just a matter of when. The Yankees even rebuilt quickly with a series of unbelievably lopsided deals, which will likely never be duplicated again, so even that model isn't valid anymore. It'll be much harder than that.
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Post by Guidas on Dec 3, 2018 11:27:28 GMT -5
TLDR version of this thread seems to be that the Red Sox are really going to be screwed if they fail to sign any of their players who reach free agency at some point in the future and then also don't use that money to replace them. Which is, y'know, technically accurate. They're semi-screwed if they wait until next off-season to see how this shakes out, IMHO. They should have certainty on who they can/want to extend now. For example, if they lose Bogaerts next year there is little else on the SS free agent market and no real internal candidates. If they made a run legit run at extending him during Nov and failed they could've at least tried to acquire Segura, who is decidedly not Bogaerts but would offer good performance at cost-certain price that is 25-50% less of what Bogaerts will get next year, and then traded Bogaerts for an MLB-ready player in a position of need. That's just an example. Waiting til next year to see what "mystery team" Boras comes up with to increase the bidding price, or potentially losing him because another team gives him 7 years is bad planning in that market. Obviously I have no insight into what their contingency is for Bogaerts, Sale, Martinez or Mookie, but there are/were longer term opportunities for replacements this year for at least three of these guys this year that won't be available next off-season, or the following off-season.
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Post by James Dunne on Dec 3, 2018 11:50:52 GMT -5
Or they could just have a worse shortstop than Bogaerts and use that money to upgrade at a different position.
Look, I get that there is definitely a path where the Red Sox end up not good in a couple years. One bad free agent, the farm dries up, they fail to resign Betts, Devers ends up not being that good, etc. But they have a combination of tremendous resources and baseball players who are good. The doom and gloom and resignation is comical.
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Post by jimed14 on Dec 3, 2018 11:54:57 GMT -5
TLDR version of this thread seems to be that the Red Sox are really going to be screwed if they fail to sign any of their players who reach free agency at some point in the future and then also don't use that money to replace them. Which is, y'know, technically accurate. They're semi-screwed if they wait until next off-season to see how this shakes out, IMHO. They should have certainty on who they can/want to extend now. For example, if they lose Bogaerts next year there is little else on the SS free agent market and no real internal candidates. If they made a run legit run at extending him during Nov and failed they could've at least tried to acquire Segura, who is decidedly not Bogaerts but would offer good performance at cost-certain price that is 25-50% less of what Bogaerts will get next year, and then traded Bogaerts for an MLB-ready player in a position of need. That's just an example. Waiting til next year to see what "mystery team" Boras comes up with to increase the bidding price, or potentially losing him because another team gives him 7 years is bad planning in that market. Obviously I have no insight into what their contingency is for Bogaerts, Sale, Martinez or Mookie, but there are/were longer term opportunities for replacements this year for at least three of these guys this year that won't be available next off-season, or the following off-season. It would be a far bigger mistake to get worse in 2019 and reduce the chance to repeat. I do not see how trading Bogearts could possibly not make them worse in 2019. The team was built to win from 2017-2019. I'd worry about 2020 after another WS victory.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Dec 3, 2018 12:35:10 GMT -5
There is a 100 different ways to build a team and address needs. You can't even talk about rebuilding unless you know what the Red Sox will be willing to spend. The core of the line-up is very young and every pitcher ages differently. I could get behind a bridge year or a retool type year or two, but not a rebuild. You just don't rebuild when you have a younger core and what one long-term contract that is big. We aren't the Marlins! We can spend 250 plus million on payroll and still make a ton of money. Nevermind Hanley coming off the books and Sandoval next year. Heck teams rebuild to get to the poing we now have, not so they don't have to give out long-term contracts. When you don't have a farm system feeding the majors, the options are to either rebuild or to try to re-sign your own players to stupid long and expensive contracts while they're on the decline. There is nowhere to go but down at that point. Eventually not having a farm system will always catch up to a team. All of the ways that big spending teams could avoid rebuilding have been closed down such as the crazy draft pick comp for free agents leaving, the overspending on the draft, the overspending on international players, the buying of free agents who don't decline until they're 38 because they're on PEDs, etc. This doesn't even take into account the needed trades to fill holes that can't be made during the season because they don't have the prospects to make them or the lack of depth to fill in for injuries. There is just no avoiding a rebuild anymore. It will happen at some point. It's just a matter of when. The Yankees even rebuilt quickly with a series of unbelievably lopsided deals, which will likely never be duplicated again, so even that model isn't valid anymore. It'll be much harder than that. Are you really saying we shouldn't resign guys? I get this is a prospect site, but my god teams don't think this way. Sale for example might be bad value at the end of his team, but he could easily give you 3-4 very good years. Have to see how he is this year. Bogaerts is very young, he won't be declining for years. When those guys go bad, your out of money and have no other options than you rebuild. It's like you guys want to rebuild so we don't have to rebuild, which is crazy! Nevermind how are you rebuilding? Tanking for higher draft picks takes forever. If your just letting Sale, Bogearts, Porcello, etc leave you don't have much to trade. What your trading a young ERod, Betts, Benintendi, Devers, Barnes, etc? It just makes zero sense. Like you said prospects are highly valued right now and are crazy risky to begin with. Your not trading Bradley and getting a massive return. I'd love to see the blueprint for your rebuild. Yea a rebuild will happen at some point is 100% accurate most likely unless our farm churns out a ton. Even then at some point it will happen. The question is do we need to rebuild for 2020 though, not at some point. I look at this team and see a great team. A team that can easily be great for another 3-5 years. Maybe Sale is just too much money, so you go with someone else. It's not like that closes your window with this offense. Heck he did very little in the playoffs and we just dominated. Just look at the trades that cost very little in Eovaldi and Pearce, that were huge. You brought up the Steroids thing, which is a very good point. Mainly because a bunch of teams have stopped giving out those huge long-term deals to older players. Reports that the Dodgers and Yankees have smaller budgets. That gives us the most money to spend in all of Baseball and you guys want to rebuild rather than spend. There hasn't been a better time to spend than right now and the next few years.
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Post by jimed14 on Dec 3, 2018 12:50:03 GMT -5
When you don't have a farm system feeding the majors, the options are to either rebuild or to try to re-sign your own players to stupid long and expensive contracts while they're on the decline. There is nowhere to go but down at that point. Eventually not having a farm system will always catch up to a team. All of the ways that big spending teams could avoid rebuilding have been closed down such as the crazy draft pick comp for free agents leaving, the overspending on the draft, the overspending on international players, the buying of free agents who don't decline until they're 38 because they're on PEDs, etc. This doesn't even take into account the needed trades to fill holes that can't be made during the season because they don't have the prospects to make them or the lack of depth to fill in for injuries. There is just no avoiding a rebuild anymore. It will happen at some point. It's just a matter of when. The Yankees even rebuilt quickly with a series of unbelievably lopsided deals, which will likely never be duplicated again, so even that model isn't valid anymore. It'll be much harder than that. Are you really saying we shouldn't resign guys? I get this is a prospect site, but my god teams don't think this way. Sale for example might be bad value at the end of his team, but he could easily give you 3-4 very good years. Have to see how he is this year. Bogaerts is very young, he won't be declining for years. When those guys go bad, your out of money and have no other options than you rebuild. It's like you guys want to rebuild so we don't have to rebuild, which is crazy! Nevermind how are you rebuilding? Tanking for higher draft picks takes forever. If your just letting Sale, Bogearts, Porcello, etc leave you don't have much to trade. What your trading a young ERod, Betts, Benintendi, Devers, Barnes, etc? It just makes zero sense. Like you said prospects are highly valued right now and are crazy risky to begin with. Your not trading Bradley and getting a massive return. I'd love to see the blueprint for your rebuild. Yea a rebuild will happen at some point is 100% accurate most likely unless our farm churns out a ton. Even then at some point it will happen. The question is do we need to rebuild for 2020 though, not at some point. I look at this team and see a great team. A team that can easily be great for another 3-5 years. Maybe Sale is just too much money, so you go with someone else. It's not like that closes your window with this offense. Heck he did very little in the playoffs and we just dominated. Just look at the trades that cost very little in Eovaldi and Pearce, that were huge. You brought up the Steroids thing, which is a very good point. Mainly because a bunch of teams have stopped giving out those huge long-term deals to older players. Reports that the Dodgers and Yankees have smaller budgets. That gives us the most money to spend in all of Baseball and you guys want to rebuild rather than spend. There hasn't been a better time to spend than right now and the next few years. No, I'm not saying we shouldn't re-sign guys at all. I'm just saying that a rebuild, or at least a mini-rebuild is inevitable. Even if they re-sign most of their guys, there will not be enough prospects to fill in the gaps and make the needed trades to fill out the rest of the roster. I see them at some point going the cheap option for the rotation and the bullpen, which is going to drive insane, the people who think we need at least one ace, 3 #2's and a #3 along with closers and setup men for every pitcher in the bullpen. It was not that long ago that they were rolling with starters like the terrible version of Felix Doubront, RDLR, Workman, Kelly, Webster, Ranaudo, Peavy and the bad version of Buchholz to fill out the rotation. Now, none of those guys would start much at all because they have 6-7 starters better than all of them. Every free agent signing will give them diminishing returns as the years go by and the team will degrade over that time, so just buying free agents continually isn't a never-ending option. They will have to resist trading all of the prospects they have left as well and instead start rebuilding the farm system.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Dec 3, 2018 13:15:25 GMT -5
Well that isn't a rebuild, that is just reality after having a super team. If you resign Sale, the type of guy we really can't trade for. I just don't get the we don't have prospects to fill out the roster and make trades. This team won't have many holes if you resign the core guys. Our minors are loaded with bullpen arms, that is the last thing I worry about. Your talking about depth and having to replace guys likely at 1B and CF. Enter Chavis and a free agent. Money solves so many issues untill it catches up with you. Yet that won't be till years and years down the road. This team has 40 million coming off the books in the next year and what like 65 million in long-term deals to Price, Martinez, and Pedroia. Even if you have to give Martinez a new deal it won't raise his per year much, just more years.
The big issue is everyone just assumes they have to reset and I think that is wrong. I can see our owner paying the tax for years if we are a great team. When we bottom out you get below and rebuild.
Everyone has to stop acting like were the Marlins. Like we'll get to the point where we can't afford to pay a backend guy for the rotation. Yea maybe it's not Porcello. That doesn't mean it will be a Shelby Miller type guy either. Or we can't sign a guy to play CF or 1B. With our stars your looking for average type players. I just don't get all the negative type crap. 90% of Baseball would love to have our young core, yet half the board thinks our window closes in 2019. Heck even looking farther down the line at a guy like ERod. At that point Price will only have one year left. Nevermind you have zero clue what are farm looks like at that point. We could have a top 10 system.
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Post by jimed14 on Dec 3, 2018 13:27:34 GMT -5
The thing is, there are only 3 ways to acquire players. Develop, trade or sign. When you don't have much of a farm system, you only have the worst way to acquire players. That isn't sustainable for very long. You can't miss on any of them either because a Hanley/Sandoval signing isn't easy to recover from as we've seen. And the team has to try to be patient with those worthless or underperforming guys just in case they are able to recover. (you can't give out a $95 million contract and give the guy just one month before he's replaced) That leads to more games lost while waiting if they don't recover. You don't have that issue with prospects because they can just develop further back in AAA if needed.
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Post by telson13 on Dec 3, 2018 13:44:17 GMT -5
I think it all comes down to redundancy, and cost. If Bogaerts costs too much, insert Lin. He might be just a 1.5-2 WAR player, but that $20M AAV can be moved to, say, Gerrit Cole. Lose 3 wins at SS, pick them up at SP. if they have a surplus at a position, they can trade from that depth. Maybe they get creative and move JBJ, since they have three players who can man CF. JDM/Chavis split OF duties and DH. They get young pitching back for JBJ. That makes them thinner at OF (but they have guys like Holt or Lin or Pearce to play in a pinch), but creates some SP depth and youth. Move Porcello to Milwaukee for Ray or Lutz, giving them minor league OF depth. See if Atlanta will deal from their huge stock of young pitching...
I think Umass’s point about the core is a good one. If they choose to keep their young core intact (and they’ll get expensive), they can always get creative and fill in with regulars...average or slightly below at some positions...because having two OF combine for 15 wins gives you a lot of leeway. Positions down the defensive spectrum are much more easily obtained via cheap FA deals (and on shorter terms) or through trades/development. It’s why there’s such a huge premium on superstars in FA...they’re very scarce. So if the Sox can keep the stars they have, even if it gets expensive, they should still be very good provided they get a little creative down-roster. Maybe that means retooling the way NY did. It’s also why I feel very strongly that they should hold on to Swihart and Devers, both of who are extremely talented. They offer the upside to extend the timeframe of the “core.” But I think they have the means and executive personnel to make the smart moves that fill holes. Idk, maybe DD is gun-shy after the Cabrera and Verlander deals. But there IS a road to sustained success, even if it means trading players off the MLB roster. So long as they don’t create big holes trying to plug them elsewhere.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Dec 3, 2018 13:55:11 GMT -5
Kinda hard to make that argument isn't it Jimmed? That just happened with Hanley, plus Sandovals contract and it was the best team in Red Sox history. I get the point that as salaries increase it will be harder. Yet that's kinda the worst case type crap right there. Nevermind DD made trade after trade from a crappy detriot system for years. He's the perfect guy to have. He trades guys at peak value that he feels are overrated and keeps the guys that he feels are core pieces. DD gets much more out of a farm system than most GMs. Maybe trades for elite players will be hard, but he can easily make trades to fill out the roster. The guy is brillant and his trade records are awesome. Can you say Doug Fister? Maybe Max Scherzer? The guy might be the best in the business at getting guys for little cost that turn into crazy good players. Acting like we can't make trades and fill out the roster with DD is not looking at DD past history.
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Post by telson13 on Dec 3, 2018 13:57:11 GMT -5
The thing is, there are only 3 ways to acquire players. Develop, trade or sign. When you don't have much of a farm system, you only have the worst way to acquire players. That isn't sustainable for very long. You can't miss on any of them either because a Hanley/Sandoval signing isn't easy to recover from as we've seen. And the team has to try to be patient with those worthless guys just in case they are able to recover. (you can't give out a $95 million contract and give the guy just one month before he's replaced) That leads to more games lost while waiting. That’s why I think they should use FA as a means to rebuild the farm. Sign players at positions where you can play them and flip them (or their equivalent roster-mate) provided you have, say, a 50%-70% replacement. That could be high-end relievers on shorter deals, with Lakins ad Feltman close. Or it could be a guy like Kikuchi, which would allow them to trade Porcello (and, given 2019 isn’t a Lux tax limited year, include enough cash to get back a quality prospect). Kikuchi might get $10-12M AAV...so he could easily be traded provided he’s a 3/4 or better, and they have guys like Shawaryn or Mata or Hernandez who can probably replace him in the future. He might not be the best fit, and I’m not saying these are the right *specific* moves, but I think they’re the TYPE of move to make to deal with the upcoming salary crunch.
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Post by jimed14 on Dec 3, 2018 14:05:54 GMT -5
Kinda hard to make that argument isn't it Jimmed? That just happened with Hanley, plus Sandovals contract and it was the best team in Red Sox history. I get the point that as salaries increase it will be harder. Yet that's kinda the worst case type crap right there. Nevermind DD made trade after trade from a crappy detriot system for years. He's the perfect guy to have. He trades guys at peak value that he feels are overrated and keeps the guys that he feels are core pieces. DD gets much more out of a farm system than most GMs. Maybe trades for elite players will be hard, but he can easily make trades to fill out the roster. The guy is brillant and his trade records are awesome. Can you say Doug Fister? Maybe Max Scherzer? The guy might be the best in the business at getting guys for little cost that turn into crazy good players. Acting like we can't make trades and fill out the roster with DD is not looking at DD past history. But it worked out the way it did with Sandoval and Hanley because our super young core was making 1/3rd as much as they would be in 2-3 years. It would not work out that way in 2022 if they had Mookie making $40 million, Xander $25 million, Sale $35 million, ERod $20 million and JBJ $18 million along with Benintendi and Devers getting into their arb years. They could afford to bust on free agent signings because of how good the farm system was (along with their young cheap major league core) when they signed those guys. They won't be able to afford busts when they no longer have that. We really don't know what the Red Sox' plans are so it'll be interesting. I see some pain coming regardless of the plan though. I love the plan to find the next Max Scherzer or JD Martinez, but that's not really what I expect to happen because it's so difficult and rare and teams are getting a lot better with their evaluations.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Dec 3, 2018 14:07:42 GMT -5
You could sign Eovaldi and say trade Porcello and Dalbec for Gray. Assuming the Rockies think they can't sign Arenado long term. Increaees their chances next year and gives them a 3B guy. Tons of things you can do if you get creative.
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Post by jimed14 on Dec 3, 2018 14:16:45 GMT -5
I think it all comes down to redundancy, and cost. If Bogaerts costs too much, insert Lin. He might be just a 1.5-2 WAR player, but that $20M AAV can be moved to, say, Gerrit Cole. Lose 3 wins at SS, pick them up at SP. if they have a surplus at a position, they can trade from that depth. Maybe they get creative and move JBJ, since they have three players who can man CF. JDM/Chavis split OF duties and DH. They get young pitching back for JBJ. That makes them thinner at OF (but they have guys like Holt or Lin or Pearce to play in a pinch), but creates some SP depth and youth. Move Porcello to Milwaukee for Ray or Lutz, giving them minor league OF depth. See if Atlanta will deal from their huge stock of young pitching... I think Umass’s point about the core is a good one. If they choose to keep their young core intact (and they’ll get expensive), they can always get creative and fill in with regulars...average or slightly below at some positions...because having two OF combine for 15 wins gives you a lot of leeway. Positions down the defensive spectrum are much more easily obtained via cheap FA deals (and on shorter terms) or through trades/development. It’s why there’s such a huge premium on superstars in FA...they’re very scarce. So if the Sox can keep the stars they have, even if it gets expensive, they should still be very good provided they get a little creative down-roster. Maybe that means retooling the way NY did. It’s also why I feel very strongly that they should hold on to Swihart and Devers, both of who are extremely talented. They offer the upside to extend the timeframe of the “core.” But I think they have the means and executive personnel to make the smart moves that fill holes. Idk, maybe DD is gun-shy after the Cabrera and Verlander deals. But there IS a road to sustained success, even if it means trading players off the MLB roster. So long as they don’t create big holes trying to plug them elsewhere. One issue I see coming if they use Lin to replace Xander (and I've been a proponent of that possibility) is the probable loss of Brock Holt. We are spoiled by Holt and the roster flexibility that comes along with his versatility. Lin could replace most of what Holt has done for us, but obviously he could not as the full time SS.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Dec 3, 2018 14:19:27 GMT -5
Kinda hard to make that argument isn't it Jimmed? That just happened with Hanley, plus Sandovals contract and it was the best team in Red Sox history. I get the point that as salaries increase it will be harder. Yet that's kinda the worst case type crap right there. Nevermind DD made trade after trade from a crappy detriot system for years. He's the perfect guy to have. He trades guys at peak value that he feels are overrated and keeps the guys that he feels are core pieces. DD gets much more out of a farm system than most GMs. Maybe trades for elite players will be hard, but he can easily make trades to fill out the roster. The guy is brillant and his trade records are awesome. Can you say Doug Fister? Maybe Max Scherzer? The guy might be the best in the business at getting guys for little cost that turn into crazy good players. Acting like we can't make trades and fill out the roster with DD is not looking at DD past history. But it worked out the way it did with Sandoval and Hanley because our super young core was making 1/3rd as much as they would be in 2-3 years. It would not work out that way in 2022 if they had Mookie making $40 million, Xander $25 million, Sale $35 million, ERod $20 million and JBJ $18 million along with Benintendi and Devers getting into their arb years. They could afford to bust on free agent signings because of how good the farm system was (along with their young cheap major league core) when they signed those guys. They won't be able to afford busts when they no longer have that. We really don't know what the Red Sox' plans are so it'll be interesting. I see some pain coming regardless of the plan though. I love the plan to find the next Max Scherzer or JD Martinez, but that's not really what I expect to happen because it's so difficult and rare and teams are getting a lot better with their evaluations. Just look at it in stages my friend. Your talking about our farm system now, but then talking about Betts, Bradley, and Erod making a ton which is 3-4 years away. Your talking about guys that aren't even in the system yet, so you can't predict what it looks like that far out. Which is my whole point. It's down the road when money could really start hurting this team, not the next few years.
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Post by telson13 on Dec 3, 2018 14:48:20 GMT -5
I think it all comes down to redundancy, and cost. If Bogaerts costs too much, insert Lin. He might be just a 1.5-2 WAR player, but that $20M AAV can be moved to, say, Gerrit Cole. Lose 3 wins at SS, pick them up at SP. if they have a surplus at a position, they can trade from that depth. Maybe they get creative and move JBJ, since they have three players who can man CF. JDM/Chavis split OF duties and DH. They get young pitching back for JBJ. That makes them thinner at OF (but they have guys like Holt or Lin or Pearce to play in a pinch), but creates some SP depth and youth. Move Porcello to Milwaukee for Ray or Lutz, giving them minor league OF depth. See if Atlanta will deal from their huge stock of young pitching... I think Umass’s point about the core is a good one. If they choose to keep their young core intact (and they’ll get expensive), they can always get creative and fill in with regulars...average or slightly below at some positions...because having two OF combine for 15 wins gives you a lot of leeway. Positions down the defensive spectrum are much more easily obtained via cheap FA deals (and on shorter terms) or through trades/development. It’s why there’s such a huge premium on superstars in FA...they’re very scarce. So if the Sox can keep the stars they have, even if it gets expensive, they should still be very good provided they get a little creative down-roster. Maybe that means retooling the way NY did. It’s also why I feel very strongly that they should hold on to Swihart and Devers, both of who are extremely talented. They offer the upside to extend the timeframe of the “core.” But I think they have the means and executive personnel to make the smart moves that fill holes. Idk, maybe DD is gun-shy after the Cabrera and Verlander deals. But there IS a road to sustained success, even if it means trading players off the MLB roster. So long as they don’t create big holes trying to plug them elsewhere. One issue I see coming if they use Lin to replace Xander (and I've been a proponent of that possibility) is the probable loss of Brock Holt. We are spoiled by Holt and the roster flexibility that comes along with his versatility. Lin could replace most of what Holt has done for us, but obviously he could not as the full time SS. That’s an excellent point I hadn’t considered, actually. Losing Holt would really be a blow for exactly the reasons you note. But, maybe they extend him before he goes Murphy this year with his axe bat and new approach? Here’s hoping Hernandez comes back. But yeah, Lin’s about as close to Holt in skillset as you’re gonna get, but a superior defender. FWIW, I really hope they keep Bogey. Ideally, Antoni Flores is the real deal and ready for SS by the time Bogey is due to move to 3b, and Devers probably to first.
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