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2019-2020 Red Sox Offseason
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Post by telson13 on Dec 3, 2018 15:05:03 GMT -5
But it worked out the way it did with Sandoval and Hanley because our super young core was making 1/3rd as much as they would be in 2-3 years. It would not work out that way in 2022 if they had Mookie making $40 million, Xander $25 million, Sale $35 million, ERod $20 million and JBJ $18 million along with Benintendi and Devers getting into their arb years. They could afford to bust on free agent signings because of how good the farm system was (along with their young cheap major league core) when they signed those guys. They won't be able to afford busts when they no longer have that. We really don't know what the Red Sox' plans are so it'll be interesting. I see some pain coming regardless of the plan though. I love the plan to find the next Max Scherzer or JD Martinez, but that's not really what I expect to happen because it's so difficult and rare and teams are getting a lot better with their evaluations. Just look at it in stages my friend. Your talking about our farm system now, but then talking about Betts, Bradley, and Erod making a ton which is 3-4 years away. Your talking about guys that aren't even in the system yet, so you can't predict what it looks like that far out. Which is my whole point. It's down the road when money could really start hurting this team, not the next few years. I think that’s generally true, there will be stages to the process. It’s not just 3-4 years away, because they’re going to need to get under the cap for 2020. That’s tougher than it sounds because even with Porcello probably gone and Sandoval’s contract done, there are arb raises for Betts and JBJ and Bogaerts’s/Sale’s new contract, if they stay. There’s going to be two smaller crunches I think, rather than one big one; the second will be at 3-4 years as you say, when Mookie is up for prob $35M AAV and Rodriguez, Benintendi, etc are all getting big arb raises. I think if they can wisely navigate the first, and get some prospect value back shedding some bigger salaries or trading redundant players, the second will hurt a lot less because they’ll be able to go over cap again. Of course, who knows what the next CBA will hold? One good thing is that although the top of their system is really thin as far as impact guys, they do have multiple useful role players, which should allow them to fill holes in the roster in 2020 at little cost. The impact talent is there at the lower levels tho (at least, there are good signs), and guys like Flores, Casas, Groome, maybe Durran, Northcutt, Decker, Howlett or Montero...they should start popping up and getting close to MLB. Some might be on the cusp, but even at AA/AAA, if they’re viewed as potential impact guys, they’re valuable in trade...meaning maybe the Sox can swing that 25-and-under TOR SP acquisition, or whatever other low-cost big piece they need.
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Post by telson13 on Dec 3, 2018 15:14:05 GMT -5
You could sign Eovaldi and say trade Porcello and Dalbec for Gray. Assuming the Rockies think they can't sign Arenado long term. Increaees their chances next year and gives them a 3B guy. Tons of things you can do if you get creative. Exactly. I definitely have issues with DD’s gestalt approach, because he really does tend to work short-term, resulting in some questionable long-term contracts and bad trades/overpays. But for the most part—and I’ve really learned to trust him for this reason—he’s an excellent evaluator of MLB talent. It makes up for a lot of (what I see as) his shortcomings. Lol...he really is the *polar* opposite of Cherington, who was terrific with player development and long-term vision, but made several bad short-term moves (which had some long-term consequences). As nervous as I get with DD’s seat-of-the-pants approach, he’s making it work here.
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Post by jimed14 on Dec 3, 2018 15:21:37 GMT -5
But it worked out the way it did with Sandoval and Hanley because our super young core was making 1/3rd as much as they would be in 2-3 years. It would not work out that way in 2022 if they had Mookie making $40 million, Xander $25 million, Sale $35 million, ERod $20 million and JBJ $18 million along with Benintendi and Devers getting into their arb years. They could afford to bust on free agent signings because of how good the farm system was (along with their young cheap major league core) when they signed those guys. They won't be able to afford busts when they no longer have that. We really don't know what the Red Sox' plans are so it'll be interesting. I see some pain coming regardless of the plan though. I love the plan to find the next Max Scherzer or JD Martinez, but that's not really what I expect to happen because it's so difficult and rare and teams are getting a lot better with their evaluations. Just look at it in stages my friend. Your talking about our farm system now, but then talking about Betts, Bradley, and Erod making a ton which is 3-4 years away. Your talking about guys that aren't even in the system yet, so you can't predict what it looks like that far out. Which is my whole point. It's down the road when money could really start hurting this team, not the next few years. I think telson mentioned somewhere about signing free agents (relief pitchers especially) that should help a lot this year and be available to trade for prospects next winter when they're trying to reset the tax penalty (if that is the plan) and that could be a good way to start rebuilding the farm. I could see them signing 2 of Britton/Miller/Robertson, using them for a year and then flipping them, especially if Feltman turns into the stud he looks like he's going to be. But they've gotta resist trading prospects like Feltman because he should save them a ton of money if he's a good closer. They need more of those guys because it gives them so much flexibility in other areas to have a guy making $550K while giving them ~$15 million of value.
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Post by jimed14 on Dec 3, 2018 15:38:51 GMT -5
One issue I see coming if they use Lin to replace Xander (and I've been a proponent of that possibility) is the probable loss of Brock Holt. We are spoiled by Holt and the roster flexibility that comes along with his versatility. Lin could replace most of what Holt has done for us, but obviously he could not as the full time SS. That’s an excellent point I hadn’t considered, actually. Losing Holt would really be a blow for exactly the reasons you note. But, maybe they extend him before he goes Murphy this year with his axe bat and new approach? Here’s hoping Hernandez comes back. But yeah, Lin’s about as close to Holt in skillset as you’re gonna get, but a superior defender. FWIW, I really hope they keep Bogey. Ideally, Antoni Flores is the real deal and ready for SS by the time Bogey is due to move to 3b, and Devers probably to first. Holt would be kind of crazy to sign an extension. I bet one of the other 29 teams in baseball would be willing to pay him starter money. I hate seeing the gang broken up and Holt is right up there at the top for me of Red Sox I love as a person. I want Joe Kelly back badly too because of the same reason. Definitely agree about keeping Xander and I've loved Flores since the first youtube video I saw of him when he was 16. I wonder if Xander is better suited for LF than 3B though since he doesn't seem to have that quick twitch reaction speed needed for 3rd. I still think Devers will be better at 3rd than Xander would be when he can't play SS anymore. I would be surprised if Devers has to move off 3rd before he's 30 as long as he keeps working on his body. He looks like he's got that NFL athleticism. (like Pablo when he was younger, but hopefully he never gets within 50 pounds of him)
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Dec 3, 2018 16:21:11 GMT -5
Just look at it in stages my friend. Your talking about our farm system now, but then talking about Betts, Bradley, and Erod making a ton which is 3-4 years away. Your talking about guys that aren't even in the system yet, so you can't predict what it looks like that far out. Which is my whole point. It's down the road when money could really start hurting this team, not the next few years. I think that’s generally true, there will be stages to the process. It’s not just 3-4 years away, because they’re going to need to get under the cap for 2020. That’s tougher than it sounds because even with Porcello probably gone and Sandoval’s contract done, there are arb raises for Betts and JBJ and Bogaerts’s/Sale’s new contract, if they stay. There’s going to be two smaller crunches I think, rather than one big one; the second will be at 3-4 years as you say, when Mookie is up for prob $35M AAV and Rodriguez, Benintendi, etc are all getting big arb raises. I think if they can wisely navigate the first, and get some prospect value back shedding some bigger salaries or trading redundant players, the second will hurt a lot less because they’ll be able to go over cap again. Of course, who knows what the next CBA will hold? One good thing is that although the top of their system is really thin as far as impact guys, they do have multiple useful role players, which should allow them to fill holes in the roster in 2020 at little cost. The impact talent is there at the lower levels tho (at least, there are good signs), and guys like Flores, Casas, Groome, maybe Durran, Northcutt, Decker, Howlett or Montero...they should start popping up and getting close to MLB. Some might be on the cusp, but even at AA/AAA, if they’re viewed as potential impact guys, they’re valuable in trade...meaning maybe the Sox can swing that 25-and-under TOR SP acquisition, or whatever other low-cost big piece they need. I just want to point out the Red Sox have paid the luxury tax for four straight years before. They are also no where near the level of taxes paid for New York and LA even though they are fairly close in revenue. I just don't see how you can say were only spending 208 million in 2020, when 228 million with taxes is less than we spent this year. The tax threshold hasn't come close to rising with our revenue. So while I don't expect them to go crazy, I don't get the have to reset the tax like were talking about major money or something. I fully understand if that is the normal goal, yet it shouldn't be set in stone either. Given our team, the fact they blew past the highest tax level and that they seem to be suitors for Eovaldi I just don't look at 2020 like almost everyone on this board. It makes zero sense. The system was designed so we pay every year, but don't go crazy. It was to limit teams like the Dodgers from having 300 plus million payrolls year in and year out.
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Post by Guidas on Dec 3, 2018 16:23:28 GMT -5
They're semi-screwed if they wait until next off-season to see how this shakes out, IMHO. They should have certainty on who they can/want to extend now. For example, if they lose Bogaerts next year there is little else on the SS free agent market and no real internal candidates. If they made a run legit run at extending him during Nov and failed they could've at least tried to acquire Segura, who is decidedly not Bogaerts but would offer good performance at cost-certain price that is 25-50% less of what Bogaerts will get next year, and then traded Bogaerts for an MLB-ready player in a position of need. That's just an example. Waiting til next year to see what "mystery team" Boras comes up with to increase the bidding price, or potentially losing him because another team gives him 7 years is bad planning in that market. Obviously I have no insight into what their contingency is for Bogaerts, Sale, Martinez or Mookie, but there are/were longer term opportunities for replacements this year for at least three of these guys this year that won't be available next off-season, or the following off-season. It would be a far bigger mistake to get worse in 2019 and reduce the chance to repeat. I do not see how trading Bogearts could possibly not make them worse in 2019. The team was built to win from 2017-2019. I'd worry about 2020 after another WS victory. I don't think such moves would make them worse, nor do I think if they manage any of the moving parts correctly that they have to take a step back. For instance - and again, just speculative - if they ascertained they don't want to go 7 years on Bogaerts and didn't want to extend Sale - they could/should keep Sale this year, but make a move to replace him as best they can now by dealing for Syndergaard or Snell or another top pitcher who is low cost and controllable and signing Machado. That frees up both Porcello and Bogaerts to trade for near-ready or ready MLB players in positions of need - or as part of the Syndergaard/Snell/whomever deal. You offset the initial cost of Machado by losing both Porcello and Bogaerts salary, and you lose Sale's next year. You likely lose Devers in the package for the young, controllable starter (unless you flip one or more of the prospects you pick up dealing Porcello and Bogaerts in the package). But if you do lose him you replace his 2018 production with an acquisition of Lowrie, or Chavis and Nunez. Machado more than increases your SS production and you move him to 3rd in two or three years. Plus you have the low cost high level prospects at positions of need you picked up in the trade getting integrated later in the year or in 2020. I'm not saying these are the moves, but it's how you can keep contending at a high level while reducing overall costs in a couple years for a one-year reset.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Dec 3, 2018 16:33:11 GMT -5
Just look at it in stages my friend. Your talking about our farm system now, but then talking about Betts, Bradley, and Erod making a ton which is 3-4 years away. Your talking about guys that aren't even in the system yet, so you can't predict what it looks like that far out. Which is my whole point. It's down the road when money could really start hurting this team, not the next few years. I think telson mentioned somewhere about signing free agents (relief pitchers especially) that should help a lot this year and be available to trade for prospects next winter when they're trying to reset the tax penalty (if that is the plan) and that could be a good way to start rebuilding the farm. I could see them signing 2 of Britton/Miller/Robertson, using them for a year and then flipping them, especially if Feltman turns into the stud he looks like he's going to be. But they've gotta resist trading prospects like Feltman because he should save them a ton of money if he's a good closer. They need more of those guys because it gives them so much flexibility in other areas to have a guy making $550K while giving them ~$15 million of value. Wouldn't resigning our guys then if you want to rebuild paying down their salaries make more sense? For example David Price has little trade value because of his deal. Yet pay half of it and bam I bet you could get a very good return. The only problem I have with signing relievers and then trading them is your punting the season. Mainly because the best returns will be at the deadline, not the offseason when other free agents are available. I guess there is a chance so many young guys step up you don't need them, but that seems a little unlikely. You'd have to basically not be in the playoff picture in 2020 and thats no given even if you don't resign some guys. Not even looking that what made a Miller so valuable was many years of control or Chapman was maybe the best reliever in the game and Theo was in a way very stupid.
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Post by jimed14 on Dec 3, 2018 16:44:45 GMT -5
I think telson mentioned somewhere about signing free agents (relief pitchers especially) that should help a lot this year and be available to trade for prospects next winter when they're trying to reset the tax penalty (if that is the plan) and that could be a good way to start rebuilding the farm. I could see them signing 2 of Britton/Miller/Robertson, using them for a year and then flipping them, especially if Feltman turns into the stud he looks like he's going to be. But they've gotta resist trading prospects like Feltman because he should save them a ton of money if he's a good closer. They need more of those guys because it gives them so much flexibility in other areas to have a guy making $550K while giving them ~$15 million of value. Wouldn't resigning our guys then if you want to rebuild paying down their salaries make more sense? For example David Price has little trade value because of his deal. Yet pay half of it and bam I bet you could get a very good return. The only problem I have with signing relievers and then trading them is your punting the season. Mainly because the best returns will be at the deadline, not the offseason when other free agents are available. I guess there is a chance so many young guys step up you don't need them, but that seems a little unlikely. You'd have to basically not be in the playoff picture in 2020 and thats no given even if you don't resign some guys. Not even looking that what made a Miller so valuable was many years of control or Chapman was maybe the best reliever in the game and Theo was in a way very stupid. I really don't think that they're going to go every single year without ever resetting the penalty like you think. The non-financial penalties become significant over time - moving 10 spots back in the draft, getting less international money to spend and reducing the draft pick comp for losing free agents. They'd just have to go cheap one season to do that and then load up again for another 3-4 years. There are actually quite a few bullpen prospects who look like they're going to contribute so I think relievers are the best area to do this with. It was just a suggestion of how to get help for 2019 while also replenishing the farm some and resetting the tax penalty the following year.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Dec 3, 2018 18:13:35 GMT -5
Yea I'm not talking about forever. I'm talking see what happens with the most talented team in Red Sox history. With the best player I've ever seen play for them and the greatest group of young talent I've ever seen on a Red Sox team. I'm talking about within reason though, like not going 40 million plus over every year. International money is for signing free agents, not spending. Just stay away from QO guys. The last one would be big, comp picks for losing free agents if the new CBA didn't change the rules. I'm not breaking up this team so we get a second round pick instead of a 4th rounder. If it was still a first that would be by far the biggest negative. In so many ways the new CBA makes it better resign your guys and stay over than let them go. Only revenue sharing teams can get first round picks for losing free agents and we'll never be one of those teams.
Just imagine if the Yankees broke up thier great team over money in 1997 and cost themselves three Championships.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Dec 3, 2018 22:38:40 GMT -5
Dave Dombrowski also has his contract only running through 2020 also, so it makes you wonder when he's ready to retire.
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Post by larrycook on Dec 3, 2018 22:46:53 GMT -5
Wirh Baird leaving, do we have someone in house ready to step up when Dombrowski does retire?
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Dec 3, 2018 23:04:09 GMT -5
Wirh Baird leaving, do we have someone in house ready to step up when Dombrowski does retire? Eddy Romero.
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Post by Guidas on Dec 7, 2018 14:28:41 GMT -5
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Dec 10, 2018 19:35:34 GMT -5
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Post by mattpicard on Dec 11, 2018 12:07:41 GMT -5
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Dec 11, 2018 12:27:06 GMT -5
I have an idea. How about moving O'Brien back to the radio booth to partner up with Joe Castiglione and then the Sox could bring back Don Orsillo from San Diego?
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gerry
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Post by gerry on Dec 11, 2018 12:58:53 GMT -5
I have an idea. How about moving O'Brien back to the radio booth to partner up with Joe Castiglione and then the Sox could bring back Don Orsillo from San Diego? No lol. Joe and Dave were Aces. IMO Dave is much better at radio than TV. In fact with his incessant chatter he seems to still be in radio mode, which hurts his NESN performance and detracts/distracts from the game. I wonder if Orsillo would leave San Diego, even to come home to his yacht.
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Post by ortiz34 on Dec 11, 2018 15:57:37 GMT -5
@bnightengale The Boston #Redsox, trying to clear salary space for bullpen help, are openly listening to offers on Rick Porcello, and rivals insist also are willing to talk about Xander Bogaerts and Jackie Bradley Jr.
@ken_Rosenthal Rival exec confirms #RedSox looking to cut payroll so they can make other moves (most likely in bullpen) and remain under luxury-tax threshold. Porcello and Bogaerts eligible for free agency after this season, Bradley after 2020.
Not surprising. Boras probably has a number in his head that is too high.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Dec 11, 2018 16:31:08 GMT -5
@bnightengale The Boston #Redsox, trying to clear salary space for bullpen help, are openly listening to offers on Rick Porcello, and rivals insist also are willing to talk about Xander Bogaerts and Jackie Bradley Jr. @ken_Rosenthal Rival exec confirms #RedSox looking to cut payroll so they can make other moves (most likely in bullpen) and remain under luxury-tax threshold. Porcello and Bogaerts eligible for free agency after this season, Bradley after 2020. Not surprising. Boras probably has a number in his head that is too high. I love the report on Porcello after the bashing I took. Yet I really hate the part about salary and just clearing space no no no!
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Post by ortiz34 on Dec 11, 2018 16:42:25 GMT -5
I got the feeling JD and Sale are higher on the list than Bogey.
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Post by jimed14 on Dec 11, 2018 16:43:13 GMT -5
@bnightengale The Boston #Redsox, trying to clear salary space for bullpen help, are openly listening to offers on Rick Porcello, and rivals insist also are willing to talk about Xander Bogaerts and Jackie Bradley Jr. @ken_Rosenthal Rival exec confirms #RedSox looking to cut payroll so they can make other moves (most likely in bullpen) and remain under luxury-tax threshold. Porcello and Bogaerts eligible for free agency after this season, Bradley after 2020. Not surprising. Boras probably has a number in his head that is too high. I love the report on Porcello after the bashing I took. Yet I really hate the part about salary and just clearing space no no no! If the Red Sox do that, they'd be stupid as hell, so I wouldn't go patting yourself on the back quite yet. I have a hard time thinking they'd be that dumb to create gigantic holes in the roster just to sign freaking relief pitchers.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Dec 11, 2018 16:52:27 GMT -5
Sale and Martinez are higher for me also. I viewed Porcello as more of a luxury that if dealt really doesn't change the ability to compete next year. He also makes a ton of money. Heck you could replace Bradley if you had too. I just don't see how you easily replace Bogaerts and not really hurt your chances next year. Interesting stuff just when it seemed like it was getting boring.
I just hope some of this is to try and keep Porcello's value high, like we have other options type crap. But I truly hate this is about money this year after everything they just made. If your not resigning guys getting value now could be smart. Yet to do it for money for bullpen arms is crazy and stupid. My head is starting to hurt trying to make sense of this. Why in the world would you leake that crap? I wanted to paydown Porcello's contract to get top value.
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Post by elbochie on Dec 11, 2018 16:58:03 GMT -5
From Vegas at winter meetings......Red Sox willing to listen to trade offers for Porcello, Bradley, and Xander
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Dec 11, 2018 17:09:30 GMT -5
At the moment I'm not taking it too seriously.
I remember Dombrowski saying something to the affect that he'd listen to trade offers on anybody, like he'd trade Barry Bonds for 2 Barry Bonds'.
Listening to offers doesn't mean he's pulling the trigger. Maybe he gets an offer he can't refuse for Porcello, JBJ, or Bogaerts.
He's probably more likely to pull the trigger on Porcello because in order of importance he's #3 behind #1 Bogaerts and #2 JBJ.
But that doesn't mean it's a given Porcello is a goner. It would have to be a very intriguing offer like a young cost controllable starting pitcher who'd allow the Sox to have money to spend on a reliever. I don't think this scenario really materializes because Porcello is an expensive rental.
I think the threshold for dealing JBJ is higher and X even still higher. They're not going to wreck their 2019 club to save $. If the get some kind of godfather deal for either than yeah, there's a chance, but what is the odds that they'll get what they consider a godfather offer for either JBJ or X? Probably nil, but "they're listening".
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Dec 11, 2018 17:10:57 GMT -5
From Vegas at winter meetings......Red Sox willing to listen to trade offers for Porcello, Bradley, and Xander Check out each of the five posts above yours.
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