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2019-2020 Red Sox Offseason
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Post by Guidas on Dec 12, 2018 11:08:52 GMT -5
If that MRI is truly clear I'd offer him 6 years right now.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Dec 12, 2018 14:23:42 GMT -5
Looking at JDM's contract, and assuming that he wants to play here (it is pretty much an ideal situation right now) and quite possibly retire in a Sox uni, I think there's zero chance he opts out after 2019 but a near-certainty that they renegotiate his contract after 2020, when his annual salary goes down from $23.75M to $19.375M.
They'll still be very competitive in 2020 even if they slash payroll (relative to insanely high) to get under the tax limit. If he negotiates a big new contract then, that means they have to spend a few million less than they would otherwise. It could mean the difference between having to trade JBJ or not, or being able to resign a free agent.
And they can agree next winter to have the following winter's renegotiated contract include some extra money for 2020.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Dec 12, 2018 14:38:16 GMT -5
Looking at JDM's contract, and assuming that he wants to play here (it is pretty much an ideal situation right now) and quite possibly retire in a Sox uni, I think there's zero chance he opts out after 2019 but a near-certainty that they renegotiate his contract after 2020, when his annual salary goes down from $23.75M to $19.375M. They'll still be very competitive in 2020 even if they slash payroll (relative to insanely high) to get under the tax limit. If he negotiates a big new contract then, that means they have to spend a few million less than they would otherwise. It could mean the difference between having to trade JBJ or not, or being able to resign a free agent.
And they can agree next winter to have the following winter's renegotiated contract include some extra money for 2020.
But if JDM mashes again why would he settle for 23.75M when he can probably make closer to 27-28M or so? I doubt that he simply says I'll wait to make what I feel I'm worth. I think he'll opt out if the Sox don't have some immediate plan to pay him more. He could mash in 2019, stay at the same income level, then get hurt in 2020 and get less on the open market. Why would he do that? I'm sure he finds playing for the Sox to be a near ideal situation, but as a guy who's been paid less than what he's felt he's worth, why would he continue to settle for less if he feels he has better options? Maybe he won't, but I'd be surprised if he waited until after 2020. My guess is the Sox will come up with some sort of proposal that raises his annual, but it will count in 2020.
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Post by rjp313jr on Dec 12, 2018 15:49:40 GMT -5
My first thought with this is “How the hell did it take until now for this to happen?” It’s amazing that every top prospect doesn’t have one in the minors and mind blowing every MLB player doesn’t have one of these plus and nutritionist and/or chef.
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gerry
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Post by gerry on Dec 12, 2018 16:00:40 GMT -5
To champs. I remember several instances where a new, larger, long term contract was timed in such a way that it left the lower “current” contract in force during that current year and began the higher AAV the following year. The Sox snd JDM would agree to this if it met the needs of both. JDM is not going to demand they mess up getting under the cap in 2020 as long as he gets his long term big deal and it helps re/sign his team mates. Even Boras understands that, and will use it to his advantage.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Dec 12, 2018 16:06:41 GMT -5
To champs. I remember several instances where a new, larger, long term contract was timed in such a way that it left the lower “current” contract in force during that current year and began the higher AAV the following year. The Sox snd JDM would agree to this if it met the needs of both. JDM is not going to demand they mess up getting under the cap in 2020 as long as he gets his long term big deal and it helps re/sign his team mates. Even Boras understands that, and will use it to his advantage. I thought of that to. Remember Gonzalez doing that, but I don't know that the timing lines up. JDM's contract can be opted out after 2019. Maybe the Sox, Boras and JDM, have a extension worked out that gets announced the day after Opening Day 2020, but that would have to be in place by the time the opt-out takes affect so that he doesn't take the opt-out. If it's not done by then, then he will opt out and get paid big $ for 2020, which is what I would think he wants to do anyways?
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Post by soxin8 on Dec 12, 2018 16:31:31 GMT -5
Trading Porcello seem like a great move. If they can keep payroll under $240 for the year. According to Ian Cundall the Sox would only get 4th round picks for players with Q.O., instead of 1st round picks if they are over the $240 mark. It would be nice to get back 3 first rounders (plus Porcello's return) for Sale, Martinez and Bogaerts, should they all walk. Correct me if I'm wrong, but what I've read about draft pick compensation would mean the best the Sox could do is receive 2nd round picks for them. I believe only the teams receiving pool money can get 1st rounders for free agents signing for over 50 MM.
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Post by drive7 on Dec 12, 2018 16:45:32 GMT -5
Trading Porcello seem like a great move. If they can keep payroll under $240 for the year. According to Ian Cundall the Sox would only get 4th round picks for players with Q.O., instead of 1st round picks if they are over the $240 mark. It would be nice to get back 3 first rounders (plus Porcello's return) for Sale, Martinez and Bogaerts, should they all walk. Correct me if I'm wrong, but what I've read about draft pick compensation would mean the best the Sox could do is receive 2nd round picks for them. I believe only the teams receiving pool money can get 1st rounders for free agents signing for over 50 MM. You are correct. I looked over the rules this morning and realized I was wrong.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Dec 12, 2018 17:18:03 GMT -5
Looking at JDM's contract, and assuming that he wants to play here (it is pretty much an ideal situation right now) and quite possibly retire in a Sox uni, I think there's zero chance he opts out after 2019 but a near-certainty that they renegotiate his contract after 2020, when his annual salary goes down from $23.75M to $19.375M. They'll still be very competitive in 2020 even if they slash payroll (relative to insanely high) to get under the tax limit. If he negotiates a big new contract then, that means they have to spend a few million less than they would otherwise. It could mean the difference between having to trade JBJ or not, or being able to resign a free agent.
And they can agree next winter to have the following winter's renegotiated contract include some extra money for 2020.
But if JDM mashes again why would he settle for 23.75M when he can probably make closer to 27-28M or so? I doubt that he simply says I'll wait to make what I feel I'm worth. I think he'll opt out if the Sox don't have some immediate plan to pay him more. He could mash in 2019, stay at the same income level, then get hurt in 2020 and get less on the open market. Why would he do that? I'm sure he finds playing for the Sox to be a near ideal situation, but as a guy who's been paid less than what he's felt he's worth, why would he continue to settle for less if he feels he has better options? Maybe he won't, but I'd be surprised if he waited until after 2020. My guess is the Sox will come up with some sort of proposal that raises his annual, but it will count in 2020. Using your numbers ... because after this year, they'll agree to replace the three remaining years of $23.75, $19.375, and $19.375 with four years at $27.5M, $27.5M, $23.25M, $23.25M, and then for bookkeeping purposes, they'll pay him $23.75M in 2020 and then announce a three year extension based on his second opt-out for $28.75, $25, $25. Same total bucks, just distributed differently. That reduces his AAV hit on 2020 by $3.375M, which will come in enormously handy for getting under the tax limit, while only raising his AAV in 2023, the next time they want to be under the cap, by $0.875.
He's got a teammate who apparently negotiated a big, fair extension, and then they spread the years out through his age 39 season -- twice the expected length -- to keep the AAV at $13.75M instead of double that, specifically so that they could afford to surround him with better teammates. Don't think he doesn't know that.
So, you seem to think that JDM will say, "no thanks, I'm afraid that I'll have such a bad year in 2020, or suffer such a serious injury, that you'll feel compelled to go back on your word, so I have to have the money now, even though I know it means trading JBJ and replacing him with Michael Chavis, and everyone will realize that I pulled a move that hurt the team in order to cover my ass against worst-case scenarios, when I already have more money than anyone could reasonably spend." I think he won't.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Dec 12, 2018 17:30:16 GMT -5
But if JDM mashes again why would he settle for 23.75M when he can probably make closer to 27-28M or so? I doubt that he simply says I'll wait to make what I feel I'm worth. I think he'll opt out if the Sox don't have some immediate plan to pay him more. He could mash in 2019, stay at the same income level, then get hurt in 2020 and get less on the open market. Why would he do that? I'm sure he finds playing for the Sox to be a near ideal situation, but as a guy who's been paid less than what he's felt he's worth, why would he continue to settle for less if he feels he has better options? Maybe he won't, but I'd be surprised if he waited until after 2020. My guess is the Sox will come up with some sort of proposal that raises his annual, but it will count in 2020. Using your numbers ... because after this year, they'll agree to replace the three remaining years of $23.75, $19.375, and $19.375 with four years at $27.5M, $27.5M, $23.25M, $23.25M, and then for bookkeeping purposes, they'll pay him $23.75M in 2020 and then announce a three year extension based on his second opt-out for $28.75, $25, $25. Same total bucks, just distributed differently. That reduces his AAV hit on 2020 by $3.375M, which will come in enormously handy for getting under the tax limit, while only raising his AAV in 2023, the next time they want to be under the cap, by $0.875. He's got a teammate who apparently negotiated a big, fair extension, and then they spread the years out through his age 39 season -- twice the expected length -- to keep the AAV at $13.75M instead of double that, specifically so that they could afford to surround him with better teammates. Don't think he doesn't know that.
So, you seem to think that JDM will say, "no thanks, I'm afraid that I'll have such a bad year in 2020, or suffer such a serious injury, that you'll feel compelled to go back on your word, so I have to have the money now, even though I know it means trading JBJ and replacing him with Michael Chavis, and everyone will realize that I pulled a move that hurt the team in order to cover my ass against worst-case scenarios, when I already have more money than anyone could reasonably spend." I think he won't. Or maybe if he has a monster year in 2019 like he had in 2018 he decides I wasn't crazy about my contract, thought I should get more, have proven myself in a big market, and I want to get more. Not every guy is Pedroia. Pedroia's contract has nothing to do with JDM. Nor is JDM a pseudo-GM where he worries about where his place in the pay market affects JBJ. For all you know, JDM could be a guy who like Boras who thinks if JBJ is dealt and replaced by Chavis, it's because ownership didn't want to spend to keep him when they make humungous profits regardless of whether they go over the highest tax threshold or not. In your mind, you have JDM feeling responsible for that, which I doubt is the case. I don't think ballplayers think that way. That's the way a fan of the Red Sox would think who wants his players to return to his favorite team, not an athlete. Do you think all guys think "I have more money that I can possibly spend, so why bother trying to get a higher salary?" If so then you're probably going to be in for a rude awakening over the next couple of years. The Sox are going to lose players because whether the team can afford to go well over the highest luxury threshold will be irrelevant and the Sox will not make competitive offers that players will get elsewhere with Kimbrel being the first and most obvious example of this. If he had a choice between taking the qualifying offer of about $18 million because Boston is just so awesome (and I think he enjoyed Boston very much) or taking a contract that might be something along the lines of 4 years $64 million, which do you think he'd take? He already answered that question. Betts made it obvious he's not giving the Red Sox a hometown discount. The Sox' offer will have to be there with the biggest offers or he doesn't come back. He's not signing an extension before his free agency. OTOH, Chris Sale is different. He signed a lesser contract for security and he might not be the kind of guy who needs every last dollar, but the Sox will still have to come in with a good offer if he's to re-sign. Two players. Two different approaches to free agency. I think Sale is more in the minority.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Dec 12, 2018 17:53:58 GMT -5
I think Chavis has a chance to replace JDM in the DH spot soon. I'd prefer to extend Xander and Sale.
20 plus million for a hitter only is a steep price to pay if he isn't having career years with the bat. I love his bat, but Dombrowski has already been quoted in saying that he likes JDM's deal the way it is constructed.
If you wanted him for 6 years, then you should have signed him for 6 years to begin with and put a opt out after 2020. The Sox didn't do that. They drew the line at 5 and put restrictions on the lisfranc injury past year 3.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Dec 12, 2018 18:20:49 GMT -5
I think Chavis has a chance to replace JDM in the DH spot soon. I'd prefer to extend Xander and Sale. 20 plus million for a hitter only is a steep price to pay if he isn't having career years with the bat. I love his bat, but Dombrowski has already been quoted in saying that he likes JDM's deal the way it is constructed. If you wanted him for 6 years, then you should have signed him for 6 years to begin with and put a opt out after 2020. The Sox didn't do that. They drew the line at 5 and put restrictions on the lisfranc injury past year 3. FWIW, my guess is that either JDM opts out and/or restructures deal with Sox for about an additional $5 million/year. I think the Sox value his 3rd batting coach skills as well as his offensive performance. I think he stays with the Sox. I think Chavis winds up replacing the Moreland/Pearce combo at 1b come 2020. That's 14 million in savings. I figure excluding the top Sox free agents, you take 14 million savings from 1b, 4 million savings from Nunez, 19 million savings from Sandoval (or is it 14 million because of the buy-out?) and 20 million savings from Porcello's most likely imminent departure after the 2019 season, that somewhere around 50 million or so in savings. Of course the Sox will be trying to duck under the luxury tax limit. Not sure how they do that as they drop from 240 million or thereabouts to under the limit but need to sign back some players and pay additional money for arbitration. My guess is that JDM comes back and that Sale and the Sox come to an agreement. I would guess that Porcello and X would leave and that the Sox might wind up dealing JBJ after the season to try to get under the luxury tax limit so they can reset.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Dec 12, 2018 18:45:49 GMT -5
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Post by unitspin on Dec 12, 2018 19:26:29 GMT -5
Ya I believe a restructure for jdm if he puts up another year like last season is a good idea. Although say he comes in a gives you .290 30 115. Then his deal is not changing. I would not give him an extra year though I'd bump him to 25 @ 3 years if he does preform at the same level. If he wants more somewhere else it's a tough loss but opens you up to resign xander. Not to long ago David Ortiz as your dh got paid 16 a year kind of a stretch to give a guy 25 a year unless he is a top 5 hitter in the AL.
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Post by Guidas on Dec 12, 2018 19:30:22 GMT -5
I think Chavis has a chance to replace JDM in the DH spot soon. I'd prefer to extend Xander and Sale. 20 plus million for a hitter only is a steep price to pay if he isn't having career years with the bat. I love his bat, but Dombrowski has already been quoted in saying that he likes JDM's deal the way it is constructed. If you wanted him for 6 years, then you should have signed him for 6 years to begin with and put a opt out after 2020. The Sox didn't do that. They drew the line at 5 and put restrictions on the lisfranc injury past year 3. Look, I love Chavis, but you think he’ll put up numbers that compare in any way to JDM who was second only to Mike Trout in wOBA (.414) and wRC+ (160) over the last 3 years? He completely changed this team for the better this year. I would offer him a $4-5 million increase in AAV in exchange for the opt outs.
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Post by Guidas on Dec 12, 2018 19:35:46 GMT -5
I think Chavis has a chance to replace JDM in the DH spot soon. I'd prefer to extend Xander and Sale. 20 plus million for a hitter only is a steep price to pay if he isn't having career years with the bat. I love his bat, but Dombrowski has already been quoted in saying that he likes JDM's deal the way it is constructed. If you wanted him for 6 years, then you should have signed him for 6 years to begin with and put a opt out after 2020. The Sox didn't do that. They drew the line at 5 and put restrictions on the lisfranc injury past year 3. FWIW, my guess is that either JDM opts out and/or restructures deal with Sox for about an additional $5 million/year. I think the Sox value his 3rd batting coach skills as well as his offensive performance. I think he stays with the Sox. I think Chavis winds up replacing the Moreland/Pearce combo at 1b come 2020. That's 14 million in savings. I figure excluding the top Sox free agents, you take 14 million savings from 1b, 4 million savings from Nunez, 19 million savings from Sandoval (or is it 14 million because of the buy-out?) and 20 million savings from Porcello's most likely imminent departure after the 2019 season, that somewhere around 50 million or so in savings. Of course the Sox will be trying to duck under the luxury tax limit. Not sure how they do that as they drop from 240 million or thereabouts to under the limit but need to sign back some players and pay additional money for arbitration. My guess is that JDM comes back and that Sale and the Sox come to an agreement. I would guess that Porcello and X would leave and that the Sox might wind up dealing JBJ after the season to try to get under the luxury tax limit so they can reset. Also, losing Bogaerts means... well, look at te free agent market for next year. If they really think they can’t don’t want to sign him, they should’ve made that decision before Segura got traded. Unless you want the decline years of DiDi Gregorious there is nothing out there next year to buy, and nothing internal better than Lin. So you pay Xander or you settle for offensive mediocrity, overpaying for Sir Didi, or trading a boatload of prospects for a SS who is near comparable - and as we all know, there aren’t many of those.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Dec 12, 2018 19:36:07 GMT -5
I think Chavis has a chance to replace JDM in the DH spot soon. I'd prefer to extend Xander and Sale. 20 plus million for a hitter only is a steep price to pay if he isn't having career years with the bat. I love his bat, but Dombrowski has already been quoted in saying that he likes JDM's deal the way it is constructed. If you wanted him for 6 years, then you should have signed him for 6 years to begin with and put a opt out after 2020. The Sox didn't do that. They drew the line at 5 and put restrictions on the lisfranc injury past year 3. Look, I love Chavis, but you think he’ll put up numbers that compare in any way to JDM who was second only to Mike Trout in wOBA (.414) and wRC+ (160) over the last 3 years? He completely changed this team for the better this year. I would offer him a $4-5 million increase in AAV in exchange for the opt outs. He is not going to even replace half the production of JDM. The Sox might suffer a little in the DH spot past 2020. I just prefer to pay Xander and Sale versus a 32 year old bat only player a BUNCH more money. Xander is a safer bet in my eyes for the money and Sale isn't replaceable.
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Post by soxfan50 on Dec 12, 2018 19:53:19 GMT -5
I'm worried about our BP right now and where they will get the money to pay any additions. I was hoping they were going to nab at least one RP at these meetings. Still some time of course.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Dec 12, 2018 21:43:00 GMT -5
Using your numbers ... because after this year, they'll agree to replace the three remaining years of $23.75, $19.375, and $19.375 with four years at $27.5M, $27.5M, $23.25M, $23.25M, and then for bookkeeping purposes, they'll pay him $23.75M in 2020 and then announce a three year extension based on his second opt-out for $28.75, $25, $25. Same total bucks, just distributed differently. That reduces his AAV hit on 2020 by $3.375M, which will come in enormously handy for getting under the tax limit, while only raising his AAV in 2023, the next time they want to be under the cap, by $0.875. He's got a teammate who apparently negotiated a big, fair extension, and then they spread the years out through his age 39 season -- twice the expected length -- to keep the AAV at $13.75M instead of double that, specifically so that they could afford to surround him with better teammates. Don't think he doesn't know that.
So, you seem to think that JDM will say, "no thanks, I'm afraid that I'll have such a bad year in 2020, or suffer such a serious injury, that you'll feel compelled to go back on your word, so I have to have the money now, even though I know it means trading JBJ and replacing him with Michael Chavis, and everyone will realize that I pulled a move that hurt the team in order to cover my ass against worst-case scenarios, when I already have more money than anyone could reasonably spend." I think he won't. Or maybe if he has a monster year in 2019 like he had in 2018 he decides I wasn't crazy about my contract, thought I should get more, have proven myself in a big market, and I want to get more. Not every guy is Pedroia. Pedroia's contract has nothing to do with JDM. Nor is JDM a pseudo-GM where he worries about where his place in the pay market affects JBJ. For all you know, JDM could be a guy who like Boras who thinks if JBJ is dealt and replaced by Chavis, it's because ownership didn't want to spend to keep him when they make humungous profits regardless of whether they go over the highest tax threshold or not. In your mind, you have JDM feeling responsible for that, which I doubt is the case. I don't think ballplayers think that way. That's the way a fan of the Red Sox would think who wants his players to return to his favorite team, not an athlete. Do you think all guys think "I have more money that I can possibly spend, so why bother trying to get a higher salary?" If so then you're probably going to be in for a rude awakening over the next couple of years. The Sox are going to lose players because whether the team can afford to go well over the highest luxury threshold will be irrelevant and the Sox will not make competitive offers that players will get elsewhere with Kimbrel being the first and most obvious example of this. If he had a choice between taking the qualifying offer of about $18 million because Boston is just so awesome (and I think he enjoyed Boston very much) or taking a contract that might be something along the lines of 4 years $64 million, which do you think he'd take? He already answered that question. Betts made it obvious he's not giving the Red Sox a hometown discount. The Sox' offer will have to be there with the biggest offers or he doesn't come back. He's not signing an extension before his free agency. OTOH, Chris Sale is different. He signed a lesser contract for security and he might not be the kind of guy who needs every last dollar, but the Sox will still have to come in with a good offer if he's to re-sign. Two players. Two different approaches to free agency. I think Sale is more in the minority. You seem to be missing my point that he gets the same money either way. It's just a bookkeeping gimmick to game the luxury tax limit.
I explicitly said that the it only backfires if he has some kind of catastrophic off season that kills his value AND the Sox feel compelled to renege on the deal because if it. And that he's weighing the negative consequences of that incredibly remote possibility versus the positives.
You completely missed the point about "I already have more money than I can spend." Being in such a position allows you to task risks where the downside is not making further money but the upsides are significant. It makes the tiny chance that he loses out on a big deal worth taking, if the upside is he gets another ring or two.
And the chance is tiny. You might calculate in your head what percentage of position player seasons include a virtual career-ending injury (guy was never any good again, not necessarily that he never played). It's so small that the Sox could in fact buy him an insurance policy to cover it.
But you didn't respond to any of that. You simply restated your original argument.
So here's another way this might play out. Since you've assumed that JDM wants to actually opt out and test the market rather than use his opt-out to negotiate a new contract, let's run with that.
The Sox truthfully tell JDM, "If you opt out this winter we very likely cannot be competitive. We are in our reset year and need to resign Bogaerts, Sale if we can afford him, and so on. You are probably choosing to leave the organization, your teammates, the city, the fans, and probably the best chance anywhere to be a champion in your remaining years."
"However, if you wait a year and then hit the open market, we can spend very freely, and we absolutely want to have you back. And after we negotiate a fair contract, we will take the the difference between the 2021 salary and the 2020 salary and add that as a signing bonus, so that you end up losing no money. In the meantime, we'll buy you an insurance policy that will get you some extra cash should you suffer a catastrophic injury this year."
Now, what's his rationale for opting out anyway?
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Post by unitspin on Dec 12, 2018 22:27:45 GMT -5
Hey if jdm does not like 25 a year I know khris davis will prob jump at 15-20 over 3 years. As well with all this talk about mookie how many teams realistically have 30 mil a year to spend on a player. I think that's what your seeing with harper and machado right now. There are very few teams throwing that money around. Especially considering trout is a free agent same time as mookie its going to make that list even smaller.
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Post by rjp313jr on Dec 13, 2018 7:17:37 GMT -5
Hey if jdm does not like 25 a year I know khris davis will prob jump at 15-20 over 3 years. As well with all this talk about mookie how many teams realistically have 30 mil a year to spend on a player. I think that's what your seeing with harper and machado right now. There are very few teams throwing that money around. Especially considering trout is a free agent same time as mookie its going to make that list even smaller. Just remember for as great we Harper and Machado are they do have flaws as players. Harper is inconsistent; he has fairly low lows for a player of his ilk and then extremely high highs. His games played numbers also don’t scream Ironman. Machado plays dirty and it’s described as him going all out, yet he’s also a dog and is on record as admitting as much. Of course he clarified his statements right as free agency was starting and teams were publicly questioning him. The point is, those players are amazing but when giving a 10 year contract at over 30m per year, you want guys who don’t have those types of questions. I mean there’s enough risk for the length and money to begin with. Also, this is baseball, one guy can’t make that much of a difference. The game just isn’t designed that way. Mookie though, if he puts up another 2 years like he just did, is pretty squeaky clean. I would be concerned about him aging well tho. I bet these guys could easily get 30m per, but the length of the contract is holding them back.
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Post by GyIantosca on Dec 13, 2018 7:27:17 GMT -5
I think the Sox should go after Britton because I feel he wasn’t 100% yet when the Yanks made a move to get him. I think with the offseason he will be ready. That kid from Washington isn’t gonna be ready until the season starts Herrera. Finally Robertson but he is 33 I think. The rest let the kids in the minors get a chance.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Dec 13, 2018 9:46:36 GMT -5
Or maybe if he has a monster year in 2019 like he had in 2018 he decides I wasn't crazy about my contract, thought I should get more, have proven myself in a big market, and I want to get more. Not every guy is Pedroia. Pedroia's contract has nothing to do with JDM. Nor is JDM a pseudo-GM where he worries about where his place in the pay market affects JBJ. For all you know, JDM could be a guy who like Boras who thinks if JBJ is dealt and replaced by Chavis, it's because ownership didn't want to spend to keep him when they make humungous profits regardless of whether they go over the highest tax threshold or not. In your mind, you have JDM feeling responsible for that, which I doubt is the case. I don't think ballplayers think that way. That's the way a fan of the Red Sox would think who wants his players to return to his favorite team, not an athlete. Do you think all guys think "I have more money that I can possibly spend, so why bother trying to get a higher salary?" If so then you're probably going to be in for a rude awakening over the next couple of years. The Sox are going to lose players because whether the team can afford to go well over the highest luxury threshold will be irrelevant and the Sox will not make competitive offers that players will get elsewhere with Kimbrel being the first and most obvious example of this. If he had a choice between taking the qualifying offer of about $18 million because Boston is just so awesome (and I think he enjoyed Boston very much) or taking a contract that might be something along the lines of 4 years $64 million, which do you think he'd take? He already answered that question. Betts made it obvious he's not giving the Red Sox a hometown discount. The Sox' offer will have to be there with the biggest offers or he doesn't come back. He's not signing an extension before his free agency. OTOH, Chris Sale is different. He signed a lesser contract for security and he might not be the kind of guy who needs every last dollar, but the Sox will still have to come in with a good offer if he's to re-sign. Two players. Two different approaches to free agency. I think Sale is more in the minority. You seem to be missing my point that he gets the same money either way. It's just a bookkeeping gimmick to game the luxury tax limit. I explicitly said that the it only backfires if he has some kind of catastrophic off season that kills his value AND the Sox feel compelled to renege on the deal because if it. And that he's weighing the negative consequences of that incredibly remote possibility versus the positives. You completely missed the point about "I already have more money than I can spend." Being in such a position allows you to task risks where the downside is not making further money but the upsides are significant. It makes the tiny chance that he loses out on a big deal worth taking, if the upside is he gets another ring or two.
And the chance is tiny. You might calculate in your head what percentage of position player seasons include a virtual career-ending injury (guy was never any good again, not necessarily that he never played). It's so small that the Sox could in fact buy him an insurance policy to cover it.
But you didn't respond to any of that. You simply restated your original argument. So here's another way this might play out. Since you've assumed that JDM wants to actually opt out and test the market rather than use his opt-out to negotiate a new contract, let's run with that.
The Sox truthfully tell JDM, "If you opt out this winter we very likely cannot be competitive. We are in our reset year and need to resign Bogaerts, Sale if we can afford him, and so on. You are probably choosing to leave the organization, your teammates, the city, the fans, and probably the best chance anywhere to be a champion in your remaining years."
"However, if you wait a year and then hit the open market, we can spend very freely, and we absolutely want to have you back. And after we negotiate a fair contract, we will take the the difference between the 2021 salary and the 2020 salary and add that as a signing bonus, so that you end up losing no money. In the meantime, we'll buy you an insurance policy that will get you some extra cash should you suffer a catastrophic injury this year." Now, what's his rationale for opting out anyway?
I did misunderstand your point about "bookkeeping" although I do wonder if Boras plays along with that if he doesn't think it's in JDM's best interests. I was responding to your Red Sox POV rationalization as if that should impact JDM's decision making and what I'm pushing back against is that often it doesn't. Pedroia is a rare bird who thinks to himself if I make "too much" money there's less for my team to surround me with great teammates, so when you're bringing him up as if that's some sort of hope/expectation, I don't put any stock in it. Players normally do what's best for themselves when it comes to finances. Putting a great team together isn't their responsibility but that of management. They want to get paid and often regardless of their love of Boston - Joe Kelly is the newest example although we don't even know if the Sox put a competitive offer out there - we'll find out soon enough. That's the line of thought I was pushing back against. Like I said previously, I think that JDM does wind up remaining with the Red Sox (then again I thought Kelly would stick around, so what do I know?!), but I'm not convinced they do the bookkeeping procedure you're talking about unless he gets some humungous benefit from it - Boras will make sure of that - and that might not be something that Dombrowski wants to do - I guess we'll just wait and see. My opinion is he'll opt out and then the Sox will give him a new 3 or 4 year deal for around $27 million/year and it will count on the books in 2020. That's what I think ultimately happens, but I could very well be wrong and you could be proven correct. Or maybe we both wind up mistaken if he goes elsewhere, which I don't think will be the case, but who really knows?
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Dec 13, 2018 9:57:13 GMT -5
27 million a year for a bat only guy at the age of 32 for 4 years?
Pass. Sign Goldschmidt for that if you're going to do that. At least he can play first base.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Dec 13, 2018 10:16:31 GMT -5
27 million a year for a bat only guy at the age of 32 for 4 years? Pass. Sign Goldschmidt for that if you're going to do that. At least he can play first base. Now that I think of it some more, you're probably right. Teams are leery of spending huge $ on a guy who's squarely a DH. JDM isn't totally a DH yet like Ortiz was, but I don't think analytic based teams want to stick him in the OF for more than about 50 games like the Sox did. Maybe $25 million is more of a reasonable annual figure for him. I'm sure Boras is shooting for 27 - 30 million for his king kong of slug. I don't see him taking less and if he has another monster season like he had this year I'm sure he'll have the expectation that he's due for a hefty raise.
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