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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Dec 11, 2018 18:43:47 GMT -5
Big development from Cora on the 2019 lineup.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Dec 11, 2018 18:44:37 GMT -5
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Dec 11, 2018 20:29:08 GMT -5
Big development from Cora on the 2019 lineup. I was going to start a batting order thread and argue for Mookie at #2. Then I was going to post here and say "I want Mookie to hit second."
I developed a cool metric to measure how efficient each team's batting order was, and how efficiently each player in a lineup was used, "efficient" being defined as giving the best hitters the PA with the highest leverage. Mookie was the 4th most inefficiently used hitter in baseball, and the Sox were middle-of-the-pack as a team, while most of the sabermetric-savvy clubs were near the top (the Cubs being the big exception).
My proposed lineup had Xander 1 and Benny 3. That allows you to hit a lefty 9th and makes the order after JDM easier to structure. Maybe I'll start that thread after all ... I should at least post the metric numbers.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Dec 11, 2018 21:44:44 GMT -5
Big development from Cora on the 2019 lineup. Doesn't the "ideal" lineup according to sabermetrics anyways state that the best offensive player should bat 2nd in the lineup anyways? Benintendi pretty much hit like a leadoff guy. The power wasn't there, but he takes pitches and gets on-base, although I wonder if he would still leadoff against lefties or if they move Bogaerts up? Another thing impacted by that move would be JBJ's spot in the order. Wouldn't think they'd bat JBJ and Benintendi back-to-back so I would guess JBJ would not be hitting 9th, but might be hitting 8th with Vazquez probably batting 9th? So against righties: Benintendi Betts Devers Martinez Bogaerts Moreland Pedroia (Hopefully) JBJ Vazquez
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Post by soxfansince67 on Dec 11, 2018 22:17:30 GMT -5
news out of the meetings - Dave D
shopping JBJ, Porcello and Xander?
But the big news - thoughts on Cora having Beni setting the table for Mookie? Beni leading off...Mookie batting 2nd...- yea or nay? I kind of like it. Hoping Mookie does!
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Post by telson13 on Dec 12, 2018 0:52:51 GMT -5
Lol, as for the lineup I think it makes sense to put your best hitter 2nd. If they can find someone in the 9 spot to hit even reasonably, and more importantly, get on base, I think it makes even more sense. I think a big part of Mookie’s low RBI totals was the atrocious production at 7-8-9. I haven’t looked at least year, but Benintendi’s previously hit substantially better with runners on. I like his baserunning and stealing instincts, tho, and I think his slash line will improve again; he may be encouraged to be more selectively aggressive and focus on getting on base.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Dec 12, 2018 1:03:02 GMT -5
Can the mods start a 2019 Batting Order thread starting with the tweet? Move this one and I'll edit it with the rankings I mentioned earlier, plus some thoughts on how it looks other than 1, 2, and 4.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Dec 12, 2018 2:43:29 GMT -5
You start with
Benintendi Betts --- Martinez
The next question is, who hits 3rd? And that has to be mostly Xander. Pearce on occasion, with Xander hitting in Pearce's spot.
The next two obvious spots are Devers 7th and the catcher 8th. You want you weakest hitter 8th, and the 7 guy should be a guy whose value comes very largely from his ability to knock in his teammates but who doesn't set the table much -- IOW, a low OBP but high SA guy. That describes Devers exactly right now. He might end up hitting 5th or 3rd, but he definitely starts the season 7.
That leaves JBJ, Pearce, and Pedey for 5, 6, and 9. If you bat JBJ 6 or 9, you've got back-to-back LHB and JBJ is not a guy you can pinch hit for, and he and Devers have not hit lefties on the road even when they're hot, and Benny hasn't hit lefties well at all yet. So you're issuing a LOOGY invitation for an easy inning if you hit JBJ anywhere but 5.
Can he do that? I think so. He was the team's 5th or 6th best hitter once he started to hit.
Pearce then hits 6th and Pedroia is your terrific second lead-off guy hitting 9th. Pedey tends to get himself out chasing outside the zone when he's followed by a weaker hitter, so he can't hit 7th, and 6th is not ideal.
Benintendi Betts Bogaerts / Pearce Martinez Bradley Pearce / Bogaerts Devers Vazquez [Swihart] / Leon Pedroia
When Moreland is in for Pearce, either he or JBJ hits 3rd and the other 5th, and Xander hits 6th. Most of those games will be against pitchers who have trouble with LHB and are tougher on RHB.
Holt should see a lot of time at 2B and can hit 9th.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Dec 12, 2018 5:07:44 GMT -5
If BSOHL can be counted on, we might want to move Devers up in the lineup. /photo/1?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1072645117121585152&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fs9e.github.io%2Fiframe%2Ftwitter.min.html%231072645117121585152 At the winter meetings in Las Vegas, Cora said Devers, 22, has hired a trainer and a nutritionist as he spends the winter in his native Dominican Republic. The Red Sox want him to be in shape before spring training so he arrives fit in Fort Myers in February.
"One thing we want - he does an outstanding job in spring training of getting himself in shape. We don't want him to do that," Cora said. "We want him to come in shape and just have a regular spring training, and hopefully that's the case this year." . . . "We've been in contact with him constantly, and I do feel that those at-bats in October, that can translate over 162 games," Cora sais. "He was able to slow down. Whatever he found with his rehab assignment [at Triple-A Pawtucket while on the DL in August], he kept it moving forward for him."www.nbcsports.com/boston/red-sox/alex-cora-check-rafael-devers-offseason-program
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Dec 12, 2018 7:42:55 GMT -5
Can the mods start a 2019 Batting Order thread starting with the tweet? Move this one and I'll edit it with the rankings I mentioned earlier, plus some thoughts on how it looks other than 1, 2, and 4. I feel like I've told you this numerous times, but you are free to start threads yourself, as soxfansince67 showed by starting this thread.
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Post by costpet on Dec 12, 2018 8:20:47 GMT -5
I always thought that your best hitter, the one who hits for high average and has power, would bat third. Like Ted Williams. The leadoff and second hitter just gets on base for your best hitter to hit them in.
Leadoff hitter- gets on base, has speed 2nd hitter - moves him along into scoring position 3rd hitter- gets the RBI 4th hitter - power with less average - 2b or HR
That's why Petey usually batted 2nd. He was a contact hitter who could hit to the opposite field and move the leadoff hitter along.
My lineup would be:
Benny Boggy Betts Martinez Devers Pierce Bradley Petey Vasquez
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Dec 12, 2018 9:45:42 GMT -5
I always thought that your best hitter, the one who hits for high average and has power, would bat third. Like Ted Williams. The leadoff and second hitter just gets on base for your best hitter to hit them in. Leadoff hitter- gets on base, has speed 2nd hitter - moves him along into scoring position 3rd hitter- gets the RBI 4th hitter - power with less average - 2b or HR That's why Petey usually batted 2nd. He was a contact hitter who could hit to the opposite field and move the leadoff hitter along. My lineup would be: Benny Boggy Betts Martinez Devers Pierce Bradley Petey Vasquez That's the traditional approach. I remember reading a Bill James article in which he asked, who's the least likely guy to lead off the 2nd inning? Answer: The #3 hitter, so if you put a high OBP guy in that spot, you might maximize the 1st inning, but you minimize the 2nd inning more. The #4 guy gets a lot of leadoff ABs in the 2nd inning, although not as much as the #5 guy and traditionally the best hitter is the #3 guy and the best RBI guy who doesn't get on-base a ton is the #5 guy, the guy who usually leads off the 2nd inning and does nowhere near as good a job as a leadoff hitter who gets on base in the first inning. The new analytics conclude that the best hitter should bat #2 to take advantage of his power and ability to get on-base, which is where Mookie is getting shifted to. If he really starts to develop as I anticipate he will, perhaps Devers is batting 3rd at some point in the season. with Bogaerts in the #5 spot. Fortunately both Pearce and Xander have good OBPs so they do well either way in the #3 and #5 spots. I'd prefer Pearce 3rd in that scenario and X in his role as the guy who cleans up with the bases loaded with they pitch around JDM.
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Post by greatscottcooper on Dec 12, 2018 11:46:11 GMT -5
So I've been thinking about a guy like Rafael Devers and what he might bring to the lineup next year. This is a guy who every year but one split his progress between two levels. He always seemed better than his milb stats would suggest because by the time he was promoted he was crushing the ball. But here is a guy who will be 22 next year and looking to spend his 2nd full season at the MLB level. I think this is the year he (assuming he's going to reach his potential) turns into that middle of the order bat.
I'm hopeful Pedey comes back healthy, I have no ideal how realistic that is or how good he will be but we know how good he can be. This line up is stacked 1-7. But even these guys are young and if their better seasons are an indication of what they should do in their prime they could both put up an .750+ and .800+ OPS.
Yeah, I know, not everything goes right. But this is a lineup that was among baseballs best and top to bottom every guy in it is pretty much on the right side of their prime.
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Post by RedSoxStats on Dec 12, 2018 14:07:30 GMT -5
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Post by jimed14 on Dec 12, 2018 14:20:51 GMT -5
Basically, the easiest way to look at it was mentioned by Cora. When Mookie is batting leadoff, he is 100% guaranteed to be batting 150 something times with no one on base. And it's pretty much a given that Benintendi will be on base more than whoever is hitting 9th.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Dec 12, 2018 14:31:01 GMT -5
I do wonder about a couple of things with this switch.
Benni is a great OBP guy but his .366 was nowhere near Mookie's .438. The Red Sox had their batter lead off games getting on-base at a huge clip. Don't know if that happens as much with Benni - I mean that's a 72 point dropoff.
Secondly, when Betts was on, I would think that opened up more of a hole on the right side of the diamond for Benni to shoot at. Perhaps shifting mitigated that somewhat, but when he got that hit to RF, Mookie would easily pick up that extra base.
Also Mookie knew that Benni was very patient and would take pitches for him to steal and if he did odds were good that Benni would walk with the base open and not be overaggressive and get himself out.
I think theoretically it makes sense to move Mookie so he can hit with men on base, something he didn't do nearly as much as would be hoped for, especially when JBJ didn't hit the first half and when the catchers didn't very little offensively, so I get it.
I just can't help but wonder if the Sox struggle a bit, will that shift take on some symbolism and it wouldn't shock me to see Cora swap them back to Betts 1st and Benni 2nd, especially if they get better production out of the 8-9 spots this year.
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Post by RedSoxStats on Dec 12, 2018 18:22:06 GMT -5
Benni is a great OBP guy but his .366 was nowhere near Mookie's .438. The Red Sox had their batter lead off games getting on-base at a huge clip. Don't know if that happens as much with Benni - I mean that's a 72 point dropoff. When leading off the game Betts' OBP was .351
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Dec 12, 2018 18:25:36 GMT -5
Benni is a great OBP guy but his .366 was nowhere near Mookie's .438. The Red Sox had their batter lead off games getting on-base at a huge clip. Don't know if that happens as much with Benni - I mean that's a 72 point dropoff. When leading off the game Betts' OBP was .351 Geez, it seemed like it would have been much, much higher based on faulty memory. Seemed like he was always getting on-base to start the game. Didn't realize he did much better when he had more looks at the pitcher. Out of curiosity what was Benni's 1st inning OBP?
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Post by RedSoxStats on Dec 12, 2018 20:08:50 GMT -5
He hit .333/.429/.611 in the 1st inning as the leadoff man (21 times) and .340 OBP in the 1st overall.
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gerry
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Post by gerry on Dec 13, 2018 4:17:56 GMT -5
He hit .333/.429/.611 in the 1st inning as the leadoff man (21 times) and .340 OBP in the 1st overall. Awesome problems. What a way to start a game. Beni, Betts, JDM. Power, OBP, SB. Terrifying in any order. Followed by Xander, Devers, Pearce/Moreland. 80 more HR? 100 2B? Exhausting. A healthy Pedey and the new, improved bats of JBJ and CV. Poor pitchers. No time to rest. Batting Beni leadoff and Betts second could be enough to keep both fresh and searching for new ways to succeed. An interesting challenge to them and interesting strategy by Cora. Between a full season of Pearce (and Eovaldi and re-commited Price) and Pedroia, new offseason routines by Devers, JBJ, CV, ERod as reported, and tweaking the lineup, this appears to be the same 108W champion team we loved in 2018, but it portends to be a different and better team for 2019.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Dec 13, 2018 9:48:41 GMT -5
Top 10 underutilized good hitters. There's a huge gap after these 10 guys. The Efficiency rating takes how many standard deviations they were above or below their teammates (excluding pitchers) in wRC+, does the same thing for Leverage Index, and takes the geometric mean. The sign is calculated separately (it's positive if both numbers have the same sign).
Name Team wRC+ Eff Batting Order Pos (Gms) Mike Trout Angels 191 -2.01 2 (83), 3 (54) Brandon Nimmo Mets 149 -2.00 1 (65), 6 (15), 5 (11) J.T. Realmuto Marlins 126 -1.74 3 (72), 2 (34), 1 (11) Mookie Betts Red Sox 185 -1.72 1 (131) Pa. Goldschmidt Dbacks 145 -1.68 3 (78), 2 (47), 4 (31) David Peralta Dbacks 130 -1.64 1 (60), 3 (31), 4 (28), 5 (15) Ronald Acuna Braves 143 -1.62 1 (66), 2 (26), 6 (10) Freddie Freeman Braves 137 -1.57 3 (160) Ni. Castellanos Tigers 130 -1.47 3 (93), 2 (38), 4 (25) Jose Ramirez Indians 146 -1.43 3 (157) Everyone on this board hit 1st or 3rd except Trout. The OBP's of the guys who hit first for the Angels were shameful.
And the best 11 utilized good hitters: Name Team wRC+ Eff Batting Order Pos (Gms) Manny Machado Orioles 155 1.71 3 (82), 2 (14) Christi. Yelich Brewers 166 1.46 2 (116), 1 (19) Hunter Renfroe Padres 114 1.25 3 (44), 4 (37), 5 (11) Shohei Ohtani Angels 152 1.17 5 (23), 4 (22), 3 (12) Eduardo Escobar Twins 124 1.13 4 (43), 3 (25), 6 (12), 5 (11) Xander Bogaerts Red Sox 133 1.10 5 (84), 4 (26), 2 (15) Juan Soto Nats 146 1.09 5 (67), 2 (21) A.J. Pollock Dbacks 110 1.07 4 (58), 2 (13), 1 (12), 3 (12) Scooter Gennett Reds 125 1.02 4 (76), 5 (24), 3 (23), 2 (18) Franc. Cervelli Pirates 125 1.01 6 (30), 4 (28), 5 (23) Khris Davis A's 135 0.95 4 (146) After the first 2 or 3 guys, it's all 4 and 5 hitters.
The top 10 badly utilized bad hitters. These guys had higher leverage indexes than their teammates. Name Team wRC+ Eff Batting Order Pos (Gms) Michael Taylor Nats 71 -1.98 6 (39), 7 (32) Gary Sanchez Yankees 89 -1.66 5 (44), 4 (19), 6 (10) James McCann Tigers 58 -1.39 7 (52), 6 (40), 8 (10) Chris Iannetta Rockies 84 -1.38 8 (43), 7 (12), 6 (11) Neil Walker Yankees 81 -1.35 7 (28), 6 (19), 8 (18), 9 (15), 5 (12) Kevin Kiermaier Rays 78 -1.30 1 (34), 6 (17), 7 (16), 2 (10) Carlos Gomez Rays 80 -1.26 8 (25), 7 (23), 3 (22), 6 (16) Victor Martinez Tigers 75 -1.23 4 (63), 5 (53) Jay Bruce Mets 89 -1.22 4 (40), 5 (19), 3 (13) I. Kiner-Falefa Rangers 81 -1.21 6 (21), 7 (19), 8 (19), 3 (16)
A lot of guys hitting 6, 7, and even 8. Only Sanchez, Martinez, and Bruce were bad hitters who hit in traditional spots for good hitters.
The top 9 well-utilized bad hitters. Name Team wRC+ Eff Batting Order Pos (Gms) Orlando Arcia Brewers 54 2.26 8 (71), 7 (14) Elvis Andrus Rangers 78 1.69 3 (68), 2 (26) Scott Kingery Phils 62 1.60 7 (41), 6 (36), 8 (14) Albert Almora Cubs 89 1.47 1 (46), 2 (12) Jose Pirela Padres 78 1.36 3 (22), 4 (17), 1 (17), 6 (13), 2 (11), 5 (11) Jackie Bradley Red Sox 90 1.33 9 (80), 8 (24), 7 (20) Billy Hamilton Reds 69 1.31 9 (106) Kole Calhoun Angels 79 1.31 1 (64), 8 (20), 5 (14), 9 (11), 7 (10) Ehire Adrianza Twins 82 1.17 8 (50), 9 (18), 7 (14), 6 (11)
How the Rangers and Padres managed to give their #3 hitters really low LI's is a mystery I'm not motivated to look into! There's definitely some randomness here, as LI includes leverage created by the inning and score, not just the men on base.
I had no idea the Reds hit their pitcher 8th most of the season.
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Post by ericmvan on Dec 17, 2018 5:07:49 GMT -5
Some JBJ numbers:
He really started killing the ball on May 20, but had nothing to show for it through June 23. .200 BA that Statcast has as a .275 xBA. And a .284 wOBA versus a .350 xWOBA.
Starting June 24 he had a .364 xwOBA, but that translated into .359.
Overall from May 20 on he had a .360 xwOBA in 393 PA. Before that, he had a .286 xwOBA in 142 PA, which is not good, and would appear to be completely non-predictive.
Xander had a .358 xwOBA on the season. There's no reason why JBJ can't hit 5th against RHP with Pearce and Xander hitting 6th (and the other 3rd).
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Post by jimed14 on Dec 17, 2018 10:22:03 GMT -5
Some JBJ numbers:
He really started killing the ball on May 20, but had nothing to show for it through June 23. .200 BA that Statcast has as a .275 xBA. And a .284 wOBA versus a .350 xWOBA.
Starting June 24 he had a .364 xwOBA, but that translated into .359.
Overall from May 20 on he had a .360 xwOBA in 393 PA. Before that, he had a .286 xwOBA in 142 PA, which is not good, and would appear to be completely non-predictive.
Xander had a .358 xwOBA on the season. There's no reason why JBJ can't hit 5th against RHP with Pearce and Xander hitting 6th (and the other 3rd).
As much as I'm excited about xwOBA and the other stats that go with it, it needs to be adjusted for shifting before it's super useful to me. No matter how hard JBJ is hitting the ball, he's not going to ever reach his xwOBA in the long run if he kept hitting into shifts the way he was in May/June. It's when he started going up the middle and the other way that things really turned around for him. Now that's just anecdotal since I don't have numbers to go with it, but it is what I remember. And I was sounding the alarm the whole time that he was about to break out from his miserable start. He was having even worse luck than normal for hitting into the shifts as well. I hope he's not the next Joe Kelly who finally figures everything out just in time for free agency because I think he has the hitting talent to be one of the better hitters in the league if he can get everything just right. There aren't many players who can hit the ball further or harder than he can (which we now have evidence for). I wouldn't be surprised at all if he has a season or two of over 140 wRC+ if he can tap into that power more often.
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Post by michael on Dec 17, 2018 18:27:02 GMT -5
Basically, the easiest way to look at it was mentioned by Cora. When Mookie is batting leadoff, he is 100% guaranteed to be batting 150 something times with no one on base. And it's pretty much a given that Benintendi will be on base more than whoever is hitting 9th. Also Benny, despite a lower OBP than Mookie, will have 150 extra opportunities to be on base for Mookie. It's not important that Benny is on less frequently than Mookie; rather, his OBP v whomever is hitting ninth.
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Post by telson13 on Dec 18, 2018 0:37:29 GMT -5
Some JBJ numbers:
He really started killing the ball on May 20, but had nothing to show for it through June 23. .200 BA that Statcast has as a .275 xBA. And a .284 wOBA versus a .350 xWOBA.
Starting June 24 he had a .364 xwOBA, but that translated into .359.
Overall from May 20 on he had a .360 xwOBA in 393 PA. Before that, he had a .286 xwOBA in 142 PA, which is not good, and would appear to be completely non-predictive.
Xander had a .358 xwOBA on the season. There's no reason why JBJ can't hit 5th against RHP with Pearce and Xander hitting 6th (and the other 3rd).
If all we’ve heard about JBJ changing his approach is true (and it seems he’s dedicated himself to it fully), I think 1) his second-half numbers are probably pretty predictive of what he’ll do next year (wOBA in the .355-.375 range), and 2) I think he’ll be a lot less streaky, with his hot stretches probably remaining quite outstanding, but his cold stretches being much shorter and not nearly so *ice* cold. That bodes well for the offense in ‘19 as I think both he and Devers can put up OPSs in the .800-.850 range. Lineup depth overall should be improved, and if Pedroia *does* come back, I think the 9 spot, where hemight slash .275/.340/.410, would be massively improved. That leaves essentially only the 8 spot as a weakness, which I think could be remedied with a CVaz trade and Swihart getting 400-450 PA. **That** lineup, essentially as you laid it out, could be stupidly good without any “reaches” as far as expectations. Mookie and JDM will be hard-pressed to repeat last year, but 7-8-9 was a black hole much of the year (C and 2b, plus JBJ’s rough start), too. ‘19 might not have the supremely outstanding top-order, but with Pearce instead of Hanley, and Pedey/Lin/newBrock Holt!! instead of Nunez, plus some positive C regression and maybe more time for Swihart, it’s longer/deeper and more balanced, with no real breaks. That’s awful tough on a SP when there are no easy outs, at all.
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