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redsox04071318champs
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Dec 18, 2018 11:17:54 GMT -5
Some JBJ numbers: He really started killing the ball on May 20, but had nothing to show for it through June 23. .200 BA that Statcast has as a .275 xBA. And a .284 wOBA versus a .350 xWOBA.
Starting June 24 he had a .364 xwOBA, but that translated into .359.
Overall from May 20 on he had a .360 xwOBA in 393 PA. Before that, he had a .286 xwOBA in 142 PA, which is not good, and would appear to be completely non-predictive. Xander had a .358 xwOBA on the season. There's no reason why JBJ can't hit 5th against RHP with Pearce and Xander hitting 6th (and the other 3rd).
If all we’ve heard about JBJ changing his approach is true (and it seems he’s dedicated himself to it fully), I think 1) his second-half numbers are probably pretty predictive of what he’ll do next year (wOBA in the .355-.375 range), and 2) I think he’ll be a lot less streaky, with his hot stretches probably remaining quite outstanding, but his cold stretches being much shorter and not nearly so *ice* cold. That bodes well for the offense in ‘19 as I think both he and Devers can put up OPSs in the .800-.850 range. Lineup depth overall should be improved, and if Pedroia *does* come back, I think the 9 spot, where hemight slash .275/.340/.410, would be massively improved. That leaves essentially only the 8 spot as a weakness, which I think could be remedied with a CVaz trade and Swihart getting 400-450 PA. **That** lineup, essentially as you laid it out, could be stupidly good without any “reaches” as far as expectations. Mookie and JDM will be hard-pressed to repeat last year, but 7-8-9 was a black hole much of the year (C and 2b, plus JBJ’s rough start), too. ‘19 might not have the supremely outstanding top-order, but with Pearce instead of Hanley, and Pedey/Lin/newBrock Holt!! instead of Nunez, plus some positive C regression and maybe more time for Swihart, it’s longer/deeper and more balanced, with no real breaks. That’s awful tough on a SP when there are no easy outs, at all. I think the key to next year's lineup is Devers. If Devers is blossoming into that .280 hitter with a .330 OBP and a .500 SA, then you could slot him in the #3 hole behind Benni and Betts and in front of JD. And if JBJ keeps hitting as he has he could swap places with Moreland where JBJ bats 6th behind Bogaerts and Moreland bats 8th (with Pedroia 7th and Vazquez 9th - or vice versa if you want the #9 hitter to be a guy who gets on base). Betts and JDM aren't likely to be as ridiculous as they were in 2018 so if Devers, JBJ and Pedroia if he is healthy can really pick up the slack and make it a scary 1-9 lineup that's a lot more balanced. No more Mitch Moreland batting 3rd! Devers would be ideal. A guy with a lower OBP who is a monster hitter with power - good fit for the #3 spot. Allows an OBP guy who can slug like JDM to bat 4th and Bogaerts, with his good OBP, to continue to be the guy who cleans up the RBIs when JDM gets walked. Plus with their OBPs, JDM and X are good guys to lead the 2nd inning off, so the Sox can attack that inning as well. |
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Post by dmaineah on Dec 18, 2018 13:33:16 GMT -5
I'm just going to assume Pedro is back and healthy & Leon is traded. I think line up should be;
Pedroia
Betts
Benintendi
Martinez
Devers
Bogaerts
Moreland/Pearce
Vazquez/Swihart
Bradley
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Post by Canseco on Dec 18, 2018 13:58:16 GMT -5
I'm just going to assume Pedro is back and healthy & Leon is traded. I think line up should be; Pedroia Betts Benintendi Martinez Devers Bogaerts Moreland/Pearce Vazquez/Swihart Bradley This is exactly what I have in mind... assuming, as you said, Pedroia is healthy enough to start 100ish games. For some reason, I don’t love the idea of Benintendi leading off. |
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redsox04071318champs
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Dec 18, 2018 14:21:20 GMT -5
I'm just going to assume Pedro is back and healthy & Leon is traded. I think line up should be; Pedroia Betts Benintendi Martinez Devers Bogaerts Moreland/Pearce Vazquez/Swihart Bradley This is exactly what I have in mind... assuming, as you said, Pedroia is healthy enough to start 100ish games. For some reason, I don’t love the idea of Benintendi leading off. One good thing about a healthy Pedroia leading off is one less at-bat to ground into a double play. When he makes his outs a lot of them are hit hard and on the ground. Ideally I would do this - if Pedroia is healthy and his old self: Against righties: Benintendi Betts Devers Martinez Bogaerts Moreland Pedroia Bradley (swap JBJ for Moreland in batting order if JBJ hits like second half JBJ) Vazquez/Swihart Against lefties: Pedroia Betts Pearce JDM Bogaerts Devers Benintendi Vazquez Bradley |
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Post by wcsoxfan on Dec 18, 2018 17:06:34 GMT -5
I'm just going to assume Pedro is back and healthy & Leon is traded. I think line up should be; Pedroia Betts Benintendi Martinez Devers Bogaerts Moreland/Pearce Vazquez/Swihart Bradley I think this is close - but Devers hit .244 against RHP last year, so I'd keep him down in the order until he proves he's better. Vs RHP: Pedroia/Holt Betts Benintendi Martinez Moreland Bogaerts Devers Vazquez/Swihart Bradley Vs LHP: Pedroia Betts Benintendi Martinez Pearce Bogaerts Devers/Nunez Vazquez/Leon Bradley/Holt/Moreland If one of the lefties (Moreland/Devers/Bradley) proves they can hit, then they can take the #3 spot against RHP and move Benintendi to leadoff, but until that happens the Red Sox have 3-4 (Pedroia being a ??) top RHH and only 1 top LHH. So it's a bit lopsided. (we're probably all being too optimistic on Pedroia to start the season leadoff - but never want to bet against him) |
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Post by jerrygarciaparra on Dec 18, 2018 17:59:49 GMT -5
i think it is risky penciling in Pedroia first. We don't know what kind of player we have here. By the time the season rolls around, he will have missed just about 2 years and his getting old in baseball years.
Would rather bat him down in the lineup and see what he is first, though I am not betting against him, that's for sure.
I like the idea of the flip / flop, Cora can afford to tinker at the beginning of the year.
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Post by telson13 on Dec 19, 2018 1:07:59 GMT -5
If all we’ve heard about JBJ changing his approach is true (and it seems he’s dedicated himself to it fully), I think 1) his second-half numbers are probably pretty predictive of what he’ll do next year (wOBA in the .355-.375 range), and 2) I think he’ll be a lot less streaky, with his hot stretches probably remaining quite outstanding, but his cold stretches being much shorter and not nearly so *ice* cold. That bodes well for the offense in ‘19 as I think both he and Devers can put up OPSs in the .800-.850 range. Lineup depth overall should be improved, and if Pedroia *does* come back, I think the 9 spot, where hemight slash .275/.340/.410, would be massively improved. That leaves essentially only the 8 spot as a weakness, which I think could be remedied with a CVaz trade and Swihart getting 400-450 PA. **That** lineup, essentially as you laid it out, could be stupidly good without any “reaches” as far as expectations. Mookie and JDM will be hard-pressed to repeat last year, but 7-8-9 was a black hole much of the year (C and 2b, plus JBJ’s rough start), too. ‘19 might not have the supremely outstanding top-order, but with Pearce instead of Hanley, and Pedey/Lin/newBrock Holt!! instead of Nunez, plus some positive C regression and maybe more time for Swihart, it’s longer/deeper and more balanced, with no real breaks. That’s awful tough on a SP when there are no easy outs, at all. I think the key to next year's lineup is Devers. If Devers is blossoming into that .280 hitter with a .330 OBP and a .500 SA, then you could slot him in the #3 hole behind Benni and Betts and in front of JD. And if JBJ keeps hitting as he has he could swap places with Moreland where JBJ bats 6th behind Bogaerts and Moreland bats 8th (with Pedroia 7th and Vazquez 9th - or vice versa if you want the #9 hitter to be a guy who gets on base). Betts and JDM aren't likely to be as ridiculous as they were in 2018 so if Devers, JBJ and Pedroia if he is healthy can really pick up the slack and make it a scary 1-9 lineup that's a lot more balanced. No more Mitch Moreland batting 3rd! Devers would be ideal. A guy with a lower OBP who is a monster hitter with power - good fit for the #3 spot. Allows an OBP guy who can slug like JDM to bat 4th and Bogaerts, with his good OBP, to continue to be the guy who cleans up the RBIs when JDM gets walked. Plus with their OBPs, JDM and X are good guys to lead the 2nd inning off, so the Sox can attack that inning as well. Agreed. He breaks up the RHers, and he’s shown that he has the ability to hit *anyone*, he just needs to be a little more selectively aggressive and keep his zone small. I like how he finished out the year. And, that he’s getting in shape now, before ST. I think a lot of people are going to be “surprised” this year, as he’s post-hype but still SO young. He’s got big power, and when he’s going straightaway, he is dangerous. I think we’ll see his isoD and IsoP both take significant leaps this year. He wasn’t really ever comfortable last year, except maybe the last few weeks, but he’s still the highly touted guy we’ve been following. Having a tough year at just 21...well, good grief. It’s 21. He still broke the 20 HR barrier. He’s just so talented, I think last year was well below what he seems to expect of himself. I think he’ll look like a different player this year. I can see his BA take a big leap, and it may not be this year (might be incremental but still noticeable), but I think he’s going to see a jump in walk rate as his power/emerging hit tool starts scaring pitchers and they have to pitch him more carefully. I don’t think .280/.330/.500 is a stretch at all; I’ll def take the over on an OPS of .830 in 2019. Eventually I can see that IsoD approach .080 and the IsoP get into the .250 range. I’m still very high on Devers. Something like 20% of 20 y/o with ROY-qualifying PA end up in the HOF. It just takes a LOT for a guy to reach MLB at that age. |
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redsox04071318champs
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Dec 19, 2018 10:15:05 GMT -5
I think the key to next year's lineup is Devers. If Devers is blossoming into that .280 hitter with a .330 OBP and a .500 SA, then you could slot him in the #3 hole behind Benni and Betts and in front of JD. And if JBJ keeps hitting as he has he could swap places with Moreland where JBJ bats 6th behind Bogaerts and Moreland bats 8th (with Pedroia 7th and Vazquez 9th - or vice versa if you want the #9 hitter to be a guy who gets on base). Betts and JDM aren't likely to be as ridiculous as they were in 2018 so if Devers, JBJ and Pedroia if he is healthy can really pick up the slack and make it a scary 1-9 lineup that's a lot more balanced. No more Mitch Moreland batting 3rd! Devers would be ideal. A guy with a lower OBP who is a monster hitter with power - good fit for the #3 spot. Allows an OBP guy who can slug like JDM to bat 4th and Bogaerts, with his good OBP, to continue to be the guy who cleans up the RBIs when JDM gets walked. Plus with their OBPs, JDM and X are good guys to lead the 2nd inning off, so the Sox can attack that inning as well. Agreed. He breaks up the RHers, and he’s shown that he has the ability to hit *anyone*, he just needs to be a little more selectively aggressive and keep his zone small. I like how he finished out the year. And, that he’s getting in shape now, before ST. I think a lot of people are going to be “surprised” this year, as he’s post-hype but still SO young. He’s got big power, and when he’s going straightaway, he is dangerous. I think we’ll see his isoD and IsoP both take significant leaps this year. He wasn’t really ever comfortable last year, except maybe the last few weeks, but he’s still the highly touted guy we’ve been following. Having a tough year at just 21...well, good grief. It’s 21. He still broke the 20 HR barrier. He’s just so talented, I think last year was well below what he seems to expect of himself. I think he’ll look like a different player this year. I can see his BA take a big leap, and it may not be this year (might be incremental but still noticeable), but I think he’s going to see a jump in walk rate as his power/emerging hit tool starts scaring pitchers and they have to pitch him more carefully. I don’t think .280/.330/.500 is a stretch at all; I’ll def take the over on an OPS of .830 in 2019. Eventually I can see that IsoD approach .080 and the IsoP get into the .250 range. I’m still very high on Devers. Something like 20% of 20 y/o with ROY-qualifying PA end up in the HOF. It just takes a LOT for a guy to reach MLB at that age. I think that .280 with a .330 OBP and a .500 SA is the next progression level for Devers, hopefully in 2019 and that's a 3rd place worthy hitter, but like you, I think that only scratches the surface of his potential. It's really not that hard to see .300 with a .370 OBP and a .600 SA in some of his best seasons. It's all about staying healthy and continuing the strike zone discipline progression which he was doing a much better job of in the post-season. And by the way that's two very good post-seasons for a young kid. That kid simply doesn't get rattled. The stage isn't too big for him. Dombrowski deals kids, true, but he made sure to hang onto this one, just like he did with Benintendi. One of Dombrowski's best attributes is that he's a good sorter and judge of talent and that's what he has done with the Red Sox. |
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Post by azblue on Dec 19, 2018 10:15:28 GMT -5
My preference:
Pedroia
Benintendi
Betts
Martinez
Bogaerts
Devers
Moreland/Pearce
Vazquez/Swihart
Bradley
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Dec 19, 2018 10:40:46 GMT -5
I'll bet right now that if healthy, Pedroia will be the first batter of the season for the Sox.
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Post by jimed14 on Dec 19, 2018 11:25:41 GMT -5
I find it pretty unlikely that Pedroia is in the leadoff spot. He didn't play at all last year and is going to have a lot of pain from that, even if his knee is fine. He's going to have to work his way back and it'll likely take a lot longer than spring training. He won't be handed anything with Cora.
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redsox04071318champs
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Always hoping to make my handle even longer...
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Dec 19, 2018 12:14:54 GMT -5
I find it pretty unlikely that Pedroia is in the leadoff spot. He didn't play at all last year and is going to have a lot of pain from that, even if his knee is fine. He's going to have to work his way back and it'll likely take a lot longer than spring training. He won't be handed anything with Cora. Cora already has said if Pedroia is healthy he is the leadoff batter during the first game of the season. As far as the 2nd game or after not anywhere near as likely. |
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Post by jimed14 on Dec 19, 2018 17:40:18 GMT -5
I find it pretty unlikely that Pedroia is in the leadoff spot. He didn't play at all last year and is going to have a lot of pain from that, even if his knee is fine. He's going to have to work his way back and it'll likely take a lot longer than spring training. He won't be handed anything with Cora. Cora already has said if Pedroia is healthy he is the leadoff batter during the first game of the season. As far as the 2nd game or after not anywhere near as likely. That makes sense. |
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Post by wcsoxfan on Dec 19, 2018 18:06:03 GMT -5
I find it pretty unlikely that Pedroia is in the leadoff spot. He didn't play at all last year and is going to have a lot of pain from that, even if his knee is fine. He's going to have to work his way back and it'll likely take a lot longer than spring training. He won't be handed anything with Cora.He took his 2B job - so i wouldn't bet against it! |
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Dec 19, 2018 19:10:46 GMT -5
I find it pretty unlikely that Pedroia is in the leadoff spot. He didn't play at all last year and is going to have a lot of pain from that, even if his knee is fine. He's going to have to work his way back and it'll likely take a lot longer than spring training. He won't be handed anything with Cora. Cora already has said if Pedroia is healthy he is the leadoff batter during the first game of the season. As far as the 2nd game or after not anywhere near as likely. Shhhhhh, I was hoping someone would bite on a bet. |
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Post by telson13 on Dec 21, 2018 2:42:43 GMT -5
Agreed. He breaks up the RHers, and he’s shown that he has the ability to hit *anyone*, he just needs to be a little more selectively aggressive and keep his zone small. I like how he finished out the year. And, that he’s getting in shape now, before ST. I think a lot of people are going to be “surprised” this year, as he’s post-hype but still SO young. He’s got big power, and when he’s going straightaway, he is dangerous. I think we’ll see his isoD and IsoP both take significant leaps this year. He wasn’t really ever comfortable last year, except maybe the last few weeks, but he’s still the highly touted guy we’ve been following. Having a tough year at just 21...well, good grief. It’s 21. He still broke the 20 HR barrier. He’s just so talented, I think last year was well below what he seems to expect of himself. I think he’ll look like a different player this year. I can see his BA take a big leap, and it may not be this year (might be incremental but still noticeable), but I think he’s going to see a jump in walk rate as his power/emerging hit tool starts scaring pitchers and they have to pitch him more carefully. I don’t think .280/.330/.500 is a stretch at all; I’ll def take the over on an OPS of .830 in 2019. Eventually I can see that IsoD approach .080 and the IsoP get into the .250 range. I’m still very high on Devers. Something like 20% of 20 y/o with ROY-qualifying PA end up in the HOF. It just takes a LOT for a guy to reach MLB at that age. I think that .280 with a .330 OBP and a .500 SA is the next progression level for Devers, hopefully in 2019 and that's a 3rd place worthy hitter, but like you, I think that only scratches the surface of his potential. It's really not that hard to see .300 with a .370 OBP and a .600 SA in some of his best seasons. It's all about staying healthy and continuing the strike zone discipline progression which he was doing a much better job of in the post-season. And by the way that's two very good post-seasons for a young kid. That kid simply doesn't get rattled. The stage isn't too big for him. Dombrowski deals kids, true, but he made sure to hang onto this one, just like he did with Benintendi. One of Dombrowski's best attributes is that he's a good sorter and judge of talent and that's what he has done with the Red Sox. Totally dead-on. |
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Dec 21, 2018 4:59:45 GMT -5
Some JBJ numbers:
He really started killing the ball on May 20, but had nothing to show for it through June 23. .200 BA that Statcast has as a .275 xBA. And a .284 wOBA versus a .350 xWOBA.
Starting June 24 he had a .364 xwOBA, but that translated into .359.
Overall from May 20 on he had a .360 xwOBA in 393 PA. Before that, he had a .286 xwOBA in 142 PA, which is not good, and would appear to be completely non-predictive.
Xander had a .358 xwOBA on the season. There's no reason why JBJ can't hit 5th against RHP with Pearce and Xander hitting 6th (and the other 3rd).
As much as I'm excited about xwOBA and the other stats that go with it, it needs to be adjusted for shifting before it's super useful to me. No matter how hard JBJ is hitting the ball, he's not going to ever reach his xwOBA in the long run if he kept hitting into shifts the way he was in May/June. It's when he started going up the middle and the other way that things really turned around for him. Now that's just anecdotal since I don't have numbers to go with it, but it is what I remember. And I was sounding the alarm the whole time that he was about to break out from his miserable start. He was having even worse luck than normal for hitting into the shifts as well. I hope he's not the next Joe Kelly who finally figures everything out just in time for free agency because I think he has the hitting talent to be one of the better hitters in the league if he can get everything just right. There aren't many players who can hit the ball further or harder than he can (which we now have evidence for). I wouldn't be surprised at all if he has a season or two of over 140 wRC+ if he can tap into that power more often. I can adjust for shifting on a per-season basis by adding Pull%, Cent%, and Oppo% and seeing how they correlate to xwOBA vs. wOBA. That worked for pitchers, where guys who gave up more balls to CF beat their xwOBA by a predictable amount. I may do that at some point.
JBJ (Pull, Cent, Oppo)
.523 / .256 / .221 to May 10
.435 / .362 / .203 May 20 to June 23 .425 / .376 / .199 June 24 on.
So there's no evidence that hit distribution affected his big BABIP improvement starting 6/24. But this is overall, not hard-hit or LD breakdowns.
Let's break down the big last chunk further.
.432 / .378 / .189 June / July .371 / .452 / .177 August .480 / .280 / .240 September
Still nothing.
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Post by jimed14 on Dec 21, 2018 8:29:51 GMT -5
As much as I'm excited about xwOBA and the other stats that go with it, it needs to be adjusted for shifting before it's super useful to me. No matter how hard JBJ is hitting the ball, he's not going to ever reach his xwOBA in the long run if he kept hitting into shifts the way he was in May/June. It's when he started going up the middle and the other way that things really turned around for him. Now that's just anecdotal since I don't have numbers to go with it, but it is what I remember. And I was sounding the alarm the whole time that he was about to break out from his miserable start. He was having even worse luck than normal for hitting into the shifts as well. I hope he's not the next Joe Kelly who finally figures everything out just in time for free agency because I think he has the hitting talent to be one of the better hitters in the league if he can get everything just right. There aren't many players who can hit the ball further or harder than he can (which we now have evidence for). I wouldn't be surprised at all if he has a season or two of over 140 wRC+ if he can tap into that power more often. I can adjust for shifting on a per-season basis by adding Pull%, Cent%, and Oppo% and seeing how they correlate to xwOBA vs. wOBA. That worked for pitchers, where guys who gave up more balls to CF beat their xwOBA by a predictable amount. I may do that at some point.
JBJ (Pull, Cent, Oppo)
.523 / .256 / .221 to May 10
.435 / .362 / .203 May 20 to June 23 .425 / .376 / .199 June 24 on.
So there's no evidence that hit distribution affected his big BABIP improvement starting 6/24. But this is overall, not hard-hit or LD breakdowns.
Let's break down the big last chunk further.
.432 / .378 / .189 June / July .371 / .452 / .177 August .480 / .280 / .240 September
Still nothing.
I'm confused how that is no evidence and still nothing. 10% less of his hit balls were pulled between <5/10 and >6/24. 12% more of his hit balls were being hit up the middle. He went the other way most in September. I'd think that changing the way you hit the ball would be the exact way that your wOBA would increase because you're then hitting the ball where you didn't use to and defenders won't be standing in the exact right locations. Shifting has gotten pretty precise, especially with such predictable hitters like JBJ is when he's pulling everything. |
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Dec 21, 2018 14:02:57 GMT -5
I can adjust for shifting on a per-season basis by adding Pull%, Cent%, and Oppo% and seeing how they correlate to xwOBA vs. wOBA. That worked for pitchers, where guys who gave up more balls to CF beat their xwOBA by a predictable amount. I may do that at some point.
JBJ (Pull, Cent, Oppo)
.523 / .256 / .221 to May 19
.435 / .362 / .203 May 20 to June 23 .425 / .376 / .199 June 24 on.
So there's no evidence that hit distribution affected his big BABIP improvement starting 6/24. But this is overall, not hard-hit or LD breakdowns.
Let's break down the big last chunk further.
.432 / .378 / .189 June / July .371 / .452 / .177 August .480 / .280 / .240 September
Still nothing.
I'm confused how that is no evidence and still nothing. 10% less of his hit balls were pulled between <5/10 and >6/24. 12% more of his hit balls were being hit up the middle. He went the other way most in September. I'd think that changing the way you hit the ball would be the exact way that your wOBA would increase because you're then hitting the ball where you didn't use to and defenders won't be standing in the exact right locations. Shifting has gotten pretty precise, especially with such predictable hitters like JBJ is when he's pulling everything. Because he barely improved his BABIP starting May 20 (the bold above fixes a typo or the previous stretch), when he started using the whole field, and there was zero change in his ball distribution starting June 24, when his BABIP and wOBA suddenly returned to normal (look at the numbers in the original post). He made the big change in hit distribution on May 20 and, simultaneously, his xwOBA soared. But his BABIP and hence wOBA remained bad for another month.
I remember him having ungodly awful luck for that month. I don't recall him doing anything different to get more hard-hit balls to drop in; they just started to do so as expected.
Which is to say, there's no evidence at all for a two-stage adjustment.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Dec 21, 2018 14:10:15 GMT -5
No there isn't. But that's also why it makes sense to start looking at his second half starting in late June, when BABIP did return to normal. Adding in that month or so's worth of data masks what he did in the latter part of the season.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Dec 21, 2018 16:27:47 GMT -5
The shift hurts hitters because they can't change the way the hit. If David Ortiz can't adjust then almost no one can and the numbers show Ortiz couldn't.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Dec 22, 2018 21:34:30 GMT -5
No there isn't. But that's also why it makes sense to start looking at his second half starting in late June, when BABIP did return to normal. Adding in that month or so's worth of data masks what he did in the latter part of the season. Starting xwOBA in May just gives you more confidence in his ability to stay with proper mechanics for long stretches. I agree, if he keep hitting like he did from May 20 on, he should end up with numbers like he had from June 24 on. It's just easier to imagine him continuing to hit the same way when you know it was a significantly bigger chunk of the season than it looks like from the results. |
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Post by James Dunne on Dec 22, 2018 22:29:25 GMT -5
The shift hurts hitters because they can't change the way the hit. If David Ortiz can't adjust then almost no one can and the numbers show Ortiz couldn't. 1. The idea that David Ortiz encompasses all hitters, and that his hypothetically not being able to beat the shift by changing his approach meaning other hitters can't do it is not based on anything. We know this because we've seen hitters change their approach before. Some hitters are able to change their approach and use the whole field, others cannot. The logical extension of your argument would be that all hitters are unable to change their approach to focus on optimizing launch angle and swing path. So, is your point that all modern hitting coaching is BS? Or are you arguing that hitters are able to change their approach, but only in one direction. Because the way you've set this up, you have to argue one or the other. 2. The shift dis-incentivizes swinging for the fences, because when you swing for power and don't square up perfectly, you pull a ground ball or pop the ball up. If you take away the ability to defend that, players will swing for the fences more because the chance they make imperfect contact but get a hit anyway is higher. That leads to more swinging strikes. So banning the shift would lead to an increase in strikeouts. 3. Hitters who aren't David Ortiz should be more motivated to change their approach, because they are less likely to beat the shift by just hitting the ball out of the damn park. David Ortiz should keep swinging for the fences if they're shifting on him. Jackie Bradley should maybe not. 4. There is evidence that your given isn't a given at all, that Ortiz changed his approach, which I'm not getting into a back and forth another time. |
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Post by telson13 on Dec 23, 2018 14:26:52 GMT -5
The shift hurts hitters because they can't change the way the hit. If David Ortiz can't adjust then almost no one can and the numbers show Ortiz couldn't. 1. The idea that David Ortiz encompasses all hitters, and that his hypothetically not being able to beat the shift by changing his approach meaning other hitters can't do it is not based on anything. We know this because we've seen hitters change their approach before. Some hitters are able to change their approach and use the whole field, others cannot. The logical extension of your argument would be that all hitters are unable to change their approach to focus on optimizing launch angle and swing path. So, is your point that all modern hitting coaching is BS? Or are you arguing that hitters are able to change their approach, but only in one direction. Because the way you've set this up, you have to argue one or the other. 2. The shift dis-incentivizes swinging for the fences, because when you swing for power and don't square up perfectly, you pull a ground ball or pop the ball up. If you take away the ability to defend that, players will swing for the fences more because the chance they make imperfect contact but get a hit anyway is higher. That leads to more swinging strikes. So banning the shift would lead to an increase in strikeouts. 3. Hitters who aren't David Ortiz should be more motivated to change their approach, because they are less likely to beat the shift by just hitting the ball out of the damn park. David Ortiz should keep swinging for the fences if they're shifting on him. Jackie Bradley should maybe not. 4. There is evidence that your given isn't a given at all, that Ortiz changed his approach, which I'm not getting into a back and forth another time. I think the TTO point is a great one. I notice a lot of power hitters as they age tend to cheat pull-side more as they start making up for lost bat speed. Their BABIPs plummet (and it’s not bad luck), and the Ks go up, as they start rolling over stuff and pitchers begin exploiting the “cheat.” It’s the power guy death spiral...I was worried that was what was happening with Ortiz in ‘09 (I think it started in ‘08 and might have been a habit from the injury recovery), although I didn’t have access to advanced stats then and it was just an eyeball thing (retropectively not really supported by data actually). But in recent years, guys like Jose Bautista, Chris Davis, Ryan Howard come to mind. It’s ugly to watch. I really think the idea of eliminating the shift is stupid. Let the game run its natural course...the answer to the shift might be speedier players who hit up the middle, LD gap-gap guys. The real “game” is the cat-and-mouse of finding advantages, and learning to neutralize advantages. Personally, I’d rather watch Lorenzo Cain play than Edwin Encarnación. I liked it in the ‘80s when HR were a treat, not the gluttony of the steroid age or today’s TTO progression. The game is cyclical, and if the shift makes some players’ skill sets relatively obsolete, I’m totally ok with that. |
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ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,911
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Post by ericmvan on Jul 28, 2019 12:29:45 GMT -5
One thing Cora hasn't really had time to do is figure out the best batting order for 6 through 9, with Moreland in the lineup for the first time against RHP since the dawn of the Age of Devers. I trotted out my Table-Set (T-Set) and Knock-In (Kn-In) metrics for the first time since last September. New wrinkle: I multiplied each by xwOBA / wOBA, to factor out luck. I started Devers' season at April 15 when he changed his stance, Holt's after he returned from the IL, JBJ on May 20 (if he cools off, you re-run the numbers), and I removed Benny's 3/27, 5 BB, 1 HBP as the first batter of the game (since he actually was great in his other PA.) T-Set measures your ability to create RBI chances for the guys after you. If you frequently clear the bases with homers, it correctly reduces your T-Set. It includes SB/CS but does not include ability to run the bases on hits (or advance on WP/PB). It includes GDP but doesn't adjust for GDP opportunities. These numbers are run-based, per 10 PA, but are ultimately kind of abstract, which is to say they are not re-scaled in a way that would make a team's overall T-Set and Kn-In predict their RS. (All three weaknesses might be fixed some day.) Sox T-Set ranking: T-S Name
.612 Brock Holt
.575 Mookie Betts
.556 Andrew Benintendi
.464 Jackie Bradley Jr.
.461 Xander Bogaerts
.451 J.D. Martinez
.448 Rafael Devers
.309 Christian Vazquez
.261 Mitch MorelandIt really divides them into three groups: Holt, Betts, and Benintendi are your table-setters, Vazquez and Moreland are your opposites. The Kn-In rankings: Kn-In Name
.966 Rafael Devers
.917 J.D. Martinez
.824 Mitch Moreland
.815 Xander Bogaerts
.794 Mookie Betts
.791 Brock Holt
.768 Jackie Bradley Jr.
.758 Christian Vazquez
.739 Andrew BenintendiBenny has almost all of his value as a table-setter and Moreland almost all of his as a knock-in guy. You construct a batting order with 5 rules: 1) Rank your hitters by overall quality and bat them more or less 2, 4, 1, 3, 5, 6, 7, 9, 8 (the last three might be 9, 7, 8 or even 9, 8, 7).
2) Have two waves, 1 through 4 and 5 through 8, that move from T-Set guys to Kn-in Guys. Use the 9 spot as a second lead-off spot.
3) Structure the lineup to minimize the impact of opposing LH and RH relief specialists. Try to avoid 3 LHB in a row. Whenever you have to have 2 LHB in a row, try to put a guy you'd pinch-hit for first, and a guy you wouldn't hit for second.
4) Identify players who benefit or are hurt by protection and try to make sure they have it (or don't).
5) Most importantly (but considered last), bat guys where they will thrive. Tweaking the lineup to eke out 5 more runs is great, but it backfires if it knocks 20 points of wRC+ off one of the hitters involved. Be cautious about moving guys out of a position where they do really well. On the rare cases where a guy is extra comfortable in a specific spot, try to put him there. When a guy is uncomfortable in a spot, avoid it. Rule 4 for the Sox has only one item (although I should double-check those numbers): you have to avoid putting Moreland before a weak hitter. I think only CV would be problematical. Following rules 1 through 4 for the Sox is actually really easy and produces this first draft: Betts Bogaerts Devers Martinez Holt Bradley Vazquez Moreland Benintendi Now, Devers ahead of Bogaerts is working great and you wouldn't change it. There's not a great difference as table-setters, but Xander is a bit better, and Devers knocks in way more teammates (although this may be offset by Xander's long history of hitting well with RISP, another tweak that might be incorporated onto a new version).
Devers may be the better hitter (already!), so that works in the opposite direction. Swapping them is something to think about for the future, however. (And in fact, Devers' ultimate best spot would be 4th, but that would require having either one less LHB in the lineup, or one of other LHB capable of hitting 1st or 2nd, which seems unlikely.) Benny and Holt are your two remaining table-setters and there are two more spots for those guys after leadoff: #5 and #9. The downgrade of batting Benintendi 5th and Holt 9th is not large, especially if you think Benny's going to stay hot. And you certainly wouldn't "demote" him to 9 the way he's hitting now. So Benny 5 is another current usage that works just OK. The rules then say to go Bradley, Vazquez, Moreland, Holt. Let's look at that. Vazquez and Moreland have to be 7 and 8, the two spots in any batting order for low OBP, high SA dudes. And batting Moreland 8 instead of 7 does 3 things: it avoids 3 LHB in a row; it puts him right after a RHB, so he becomes the guy they bring in the LHR to face and you can pinch-hit for him without the opposition switching to a RHR; and it gives him better protection. That leaves Holt and Bradley for 6 and 9. They seem to be equal caliber hitters right now, and the T-Set and Kn-In metrics argue strongly for Holt as 9. But again, JBJ is comfortable 9th, and having Holt at 6 and JBJ 9 isn't awful. So if you have: Benintendi Holt Vazquez Moreland Bradley ... against a really tough LHR you can hit Travis for Benintendi, and Chavis for Moreland. Everyone is comfortable. It gets the guy who actually does hit LHP well into the game in a likely higher-leverage situation. It also leaves Holt in the game, which gives you flexibility if anyone gets hurt. This is what I'd do. For 6 through 8 Cora first tried Moreland, Vazquez, Holt (last Tampa game). That has two problems: Holt is a much better hitter than Moreland these days, and if they bring in a LHR to face Benny and Moreland, you can't really pinch-hit for both of them or they'll being in a RHP to face Chavis and Vazquez. He then tried Holt, Moreland, Vazquez (first game of this series). That put three LHB in a row, with a guy you don't like to take out of the game in the middle, and if they bring ina LHR to face the trio, you again can't hit for Moreland with Chavis because they'll just bring in a death-on-RHB guy for Chavis and Vazquez. It also puts Moreland ahead of Vazquez, when Bradley would give him better protection. I hope Cora figures out that it ought to be Holt, Vazquez, Moreland. Finally, they really should be looking for an opportunity to swap JBJ to 6 and Holt to 9, without messing with either guy's comfort. That would give more RBI opportunities for the top of the order. You can wait for a stretch where JBJ is noticeably hotter than Brock. |
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