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Post by James Dunne on Dec 13, 2018 14:22:19 GMT -5
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Dec 13, 2018 14:29:34 GMT -5
I guess I'm just gullible then. It seems to me the Sox gave him a laundry list of things to fix which he did, so if he maintains them or knows how to get to them it sounds like he can limit his bad stretches (geez what an Eric Van thing to say!) and maximize his good stretches. If that's the case the Dodgers struck gold and it's the Red Sox' loss. If it's more of Jekyll and Hyde Kelly then the Sox did well and as far as his Sox career goes, he went out in a blaze of glory, or saved his best for last. Because Kelly stomping off the mound yelling at the top of his lungs after striking out the side (dominated them!) in the 8th inning is the most indelible memory I'll have of him, which certainly overrides those roller coaster stretches.
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Post by awall on Dec 13, 2018 14:37:23 GMT -5
Thanks for the post-season and best of luck to him against anyone but the Sox.
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Post by p23w on Dec 13, 2018 14:53:12 GMT -5
Say what you will about Joe Kelly, he was nails in the post season. Not Shilling nails, but for a reliever he delivered in the post season. I would think the Dodgers factored this into their decision.
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Post by Canseco on Dec 13, 2018 15:04:11 GMT -5
This is the type of shrewd discipline the Sox brass should display for the remainder of the offseason. It’s sad to see Jumbo Joe go, but he will always have a home base in Boston. Now, I’ll go pray DD doesn’t sign a reliever to a multi year deal worth big pesos.
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gerry
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Post by gerry on Dec 13, 2018 16:20:07 GMT -5
Joe Kelly, Rich Hill, Dave Roberts, Luis Ortiz. More good reasons to spend some time at Chavez Ravine this season. My lin-laws will be happy.
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Post by jimed14 on Dec 13, 2018 17:10:59 GMT -5
He was streaky as you say and had similar stretches of dominance, but I don't remember him ever going 10 plus innings or whatever it was with NO walks. Like ever. He was always walking guys and he'd pitch around it, but in the post-season he wasn't even walking guys, which is so unlike him. Maybe it's a coincidence, and maybe, I'm gullible - just call me McFly - but I truly think the Sox figured out his issues and set him on the right path, and that it's something he can take with him to LA. The only thing I worry about with him is that in listening to him, he likes to pitch whenever. He doesn't like scripted roles or at least that's how I interpreted. The Dodgers FO scripts EVERYTHING. I don't know if that approach will play well with him. It's obvious he's their 8th inning guy and will probably be used as such. www.baseball-reference.com/players/gl.fcgi?id=kellyjo05&t=p&year=2018I thought the same exact thing, I've never seen Kelly not walk anyone. Yet April 10th to May 5th 11 innings zero walks, heck April 1st through May 5th 14 innings 1 walk. Not only had he done it, he did it this year. What is really funny is that I suggested extending him around the middle of May for 3/$24 million because I thought it could end up being a bargain if he kept pitching that way.
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Post by jimed14 on Dec 13, 2018 17:13:34 GMT -5
The thing is though, how much of that control is due to him throwing strikes and how much is it getting guys to chase? I imagine if he was tipping pitches, it would be very difficult to get guys to chase. And when he fixed that, he was getting a lot of swinging strikes in the playoffs.
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Post by chrisfromnc on Dec 13, 2018 18:31:03 GMT -5
I’ll miss Joe Kelly. I’ve said a couple of times that he seems like the player that would be the most enjoyable to talk with in a bar over a beer or two. If you invite a New York Yankee into a fist fight on the mound, I’m your fan. For life.
I hope he has tremendous success in LA.
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Post by GyIantosca on Dec 13, 2018 20:17:58 GMT -5
One more thing Joe Kelly saves the John Lackey deal too.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Dec 13, 2018 23:30:06 GMT -5
I read that the Sox offer was nowhere near what the Dodgers offered. Seems like the Sox offered 2 years with an annual value less than what the Dodgers offered.
I think had the Sox been close Joe Kelly would still be with the Red Sox. So I can't say I blame Kelly for leaving for greener pastures. I do take him at his word that he wanted to stay with the Red Sox, and I do believe he would have had the Sox' offer been competitive, so I respect what Kelly said and I respect that Kelly went elsewhere. No hard feelings for sure.
And as far as his streakiness goes, I keep coming back to this. I know he's had great streaks and awful streaks but what stands out to me is this:
The Sox told him that he needed to do a, b, and c. Then he does them and he gets instant great results, which tells me the Sox know how to get him to be his best - wish they had done it a little bit sooner, but they did it at the most important time fortunately. This tells me if he sticks with whatever the Sox told him, he should be wildly successful in LA.
Thank you Joe Kelly for the post-season memories, good luck in LA, and Joe Kelly will always be a Red Sox and will be deserving of a wildly huge standing ovation when the Dodgers come to town. He and Dave Roberts.
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radiohix
Veteran
'At the end of the day, we bang. We bang. We're going to swing.' Alex Verdugo
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Post by radiohix on Dec 15, 2018 16:49:50 GMT -5
I'll always love you Joe "let's go" Kelly
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Dec 15, 2018 20:17:45 GMT -5
What is really funny is that I suggested extending him around the middle of May for 3/$24 million because I thought it could end up being a bargain if he kept pitching that way. But given that the highest bidder gave him 3/$25M, that wouldn't have been a bargain though. You'd have been locking yourself into his FA value, which is only worth doing if you believe he's worth that.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Dec 15, 2018 21:43:42 GMT -5
The last three years, all as strictly a reliever, Kelly has been worth 1.6 wins by BRef. If that's his role in LA, he'd have to double his value to make the contract. That's not impossible, of course. But it is a bet on his being able to sustain his post-season performance, so the improvements have to be real, and they have to carry over for the next three years.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Dec 15, 2018 23:18:16 GMT -5
The Sox offered 2 years at 4-7 million AAV as I put in another thread. The Sox were telling everyone that they don't necessarily believe he's going to be some dominant reliever all of a sudden.
He might have more success in the NL though, so that was a good move he made going back to his home in California.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Dec 15, 2018 23:23:03 GMT -5
It was a great deal for Kelly. I like him and wanted him back but that's an overpay for somebody with a middle reliever track record. I'm happy for Joe, one of the gooder guys.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Dec 16, 2018 0:14:40 GMT -5
The Sox offered 2 years at 4-7 million AAV as I put in another thread. The Sox were telling everyone that they don't necessarily believe he's going to be some dominant reliever all of a sudden. He might have more success in the NL though, so that was a good move he made going back to his home in California. Either that or the Sox decided their not spending above $5 million or whatever figure on their bullpen. They probably decided they need to keep payroll down and some area of the team has to be the place they don't spend on. They spent a lot of money to fortify their rotation by keeping Eovaldi. Apparently they don't want to do that with Kimbrel and if Kelly wasn't going to be at their price point it wasn't going to be with Kelly regardless if they think he's turned into Dennis Eckersley in his prime or not. We'll know soon by who they do or more likely do not sign. I really think they're going to do bargain basement hunting. We might see the likes of a Blake Parker or somebody like that than the guys who they have mentioned. Even an injured guy like Herrera might be out of their range.
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Post by jimed14 on Dec 16, 2018 10:49:08 GMT -5
What is really funny is that I suggested extending him around the middle of May for 3/$24 million because I thought it could end up being a bargain if he kept pitching that way. But given that the highest bidder gave him 3/$25M, that wouldn't have been a bargain though. You'd have been locking yourself into his FA value, which is only worth doing if you believe he's worth that. I know that, it's just funny that it worked out that way. It wasn't a bargain. It was pretty much right on, but with a half of a season of mediocrity in the middle.
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Post by jimed14 on Dec 16, 2018 10:50:22 GMT -5
The Sox offered 2 years at 4-7 million AAV as I put in another thread. The Sox were telling everyone that they don't necessarily believe he's going to be some dominant reliever all of a sudden. He might have more success in the NL though, so that was a good move he made going back to his home in California. Either that or the Sox decided their not spending above $5 million or whatever figure on their bullpen. They probably decided they need to keep payroll down and some area of the team has to be the place they don't spend on. They spent a lot of money to fortify their rotation by keeping Eovaldi. Apparently they don't want to do that with Kimbrel and if Kelly wasn't going to be at their price point it wasn't going to be with Kelly regardless if they think he's turned into Dennis Eckersley in his prime or not. We'll know soon by who they do or more likely do not sign. I really think they're going to do bargain basement hunting. We might see the likes of a Blake Parker or somebody like that than the guys who they have mentioned. Even an injured guy like Herrera might be out of their range. It also says something about what they feel about Feltman and Lakins IMO.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Dec 16, 2018 14:53:59 GMT -5
For everyone taking what Dombrowski is saying at face value, last year he was fine with the lineup the way it was before they signed JDM.
I will be stunned if they don't add at least one arm to that group. It seemed for a while that Dombrowski's MO was to identify what he wants and strike quickly. But these past two offseasons have shown a second strategy, that he's willing to sit and wait when the market justifies that strategy. He did it with JDM, and it appears he's now waiting for the reliever market to come to him. Watching him work really is interesting.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Dec 17, 2018 10:00:45 GMT -5
For everyone taking what Dombrowski is saying at face value, last year he was fine with the lineup the way it was before they signed JDM. I will be stunned if they don't add at least one arm to that group. It seemed for a while that Dombrowski's MO was to identify what he wants and strike quickly. But these past two offseasons have shown a second strategy, that he's willing to sit and wait when the market justifies that strategy. He did it with JDM, and it appears he's now waiting for the reliever market to come to him. Watching him work really is interesting. Agree with that and would add trading a catcher to the current mix.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Dec 18, 2018 12:46:00 GMT -5
For everyone taking what Dombrowski is saying at face value, last year he was fine with the lineup the way it was before they signed JDM. I will be stunned if they don't add at least one arm to that group. It seemed for a while that Dombrowski's MO was to identify what he wants and strike quickly. But these past two offseasons have shown a second strategy, that he's willing to sit and wait when the market justifies that strategy. He did it with JDM, and it appears he's now waiting for the reliever market to come to him. Watching him work really is interesting. Agree with that and would add trading a catcher to the current mix. Yup, although he's basically acknowledged they're probably going to do that. The problem is probably that they need to wait for the Realmuto deal to maximize value on the return.
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