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Post by umassgrad2005 on Jan 22, 2019 18:23:05 GMT -5
I just have to ask what is Machado's big flaw? The only thing I see is him being dirty, yet his teammates like him. For me he's the true jewel of the offseason. I might hate Machado the person, yet Machado the player is crazy talented and there's nothing he can't do. He doesn't have the crazy up and downs that Harper does. He doesn't have the long injury history that Harper has. He can play SS and 3B. Heck I'd bet he could be well above average in the OF if you needed that at a certain point. He seems like a rather safe bet. He might not have Harpers ceiling, but his floor is crazy high unlike Harper. Just looking at the back of the baseball card, Manny Machado isn't a big on base guy. He's a free swinger. If he's not getting some BABIP luck with a higher average, he'll have years where he has a really low OBP. Back in 2017, he had a OBP of .310 for example, which is really suboptimal. The thing I was surprised about was that Manny was pegged to be a really bad short stop according to DRS and he had a -13 DRS at short stop in 2018. I thought he would be elite there, but maybe he's lost a step since his younger days. He might have bulked up and filled out causing him to lose a step. Still, a really plus defender if not elite, even in limited action at 3B in 2018. I was just shocked how bad he was at short stop in 2018 according to DRS. Those would probably be his two biggest flaws. Not a big OBP guy, and maybe not a short stop anymore. The rest of the stuff not hustling is annoying, but teams can probably easily put up with it with his production. Umm I think your grasping at straws frankly. Yea he might not be elite, but he's a .282 career average and .335 on base percentage. Just my own rule of thumb, but if a guy is .05 or better with his on base% it isn't an issue. I mean he had 70 BB and 100 SOs last year. That isn't an issue in my book and not my definition of a free swinger. Nevermind he was .297 .367 last year and had a .304 BAbip, so its not like he was crazy lucky or something like that. Also his D greatly improved at SS as the season went along. He was plus 5 DRS at SS for the Dodger in his last 50 games. Given this was his first full season at SS ever in the majors I'm not worried. That's what you want to see and would ecpect to see.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jan 23, 2019 0:28:57 GMT -5
Just looking at the back of the baseball card, Manny Machado isn't a big on base guy. He's a free swinger. If he's not getting some BABIP luck with a higher average, he'll have years where he has a really low OBP. Back in 2017, he had a OBP of .310 for example, which is really suboptimal. The thing I was surprised about was that Manny was pegged to be a really bad short stop according to DRS and he had a -13 DRS at short stop in 2018. I thought he would be elite there, but maybe he's lost a step since his younger days. He might have bulked up and filled out causing him to lose a step. Still, a really plus defender if not elite, even in limited action at 3B in 2018. I was just shocked how bad he was at short stop in 2018 according to DRS. Those would probably be his two biggest flaws. Not a big OBP guy, and maybe not a short stop anymore. The rest of the stuff not hustling is annoying, but teams can probably easily put up with it with his production. Umm I think your grasping at straws frankly. Yea he might not be elite, but he's a .282 career average and .335 on base percentage. Just my own rule of thumb, but if a guy is .05 or better with his on base% it isn't an issue. I mean he had 70 BB and 100 SOs last year. That isn't an issue in my book and not my definition of a free swinger. Nevermind he was .297 .367 last year and had a .304 BAbip, so its not like he was crazy lucky or something like that. Also his D greatly improved at SS as the season went along. He was plus 5 DRS at SS for the Dodger in his last 50 games. Given this was his first full season at SS ever in the majors I'm not worried. That's what you want to see and would ecpect to see. Hey, you asked the question. "What is his biggest flaw?" I answered it the way I read it. He's probably around a .330-.340 OBP guy normally and that's where his career OBP might sit. Even you kind of answered it with a "Yeah maybe not elite." That's all. I'd take Manny Machado, even with all the baggage. Even if he's just a third baseman, or maybe a short stop.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Jan 23, 2019 3:01:44 GMT -5
Umm I think your grasping at straws frankly. Yea he might not be elite, but he's a .282 career average and .335 on base percentage. Just my own rule of thumb, but if a guy is .05 or better with his on base% it isn't an issue. I mean he had 70 BB and 100 SOs last year. That isn't an issue in my book and not my definition of a free swinger. Nevermind he was .297 .367 last year and had a .304 BAbip, so its not like he was crazy lucky or something like that. Also his D greatly improved at SS as the season went along. He was plus 5 DRS at SS for the Dodger in his last 50 games. Given this was his first full season at SS ever in the majors I'm not worried. That's what you want to see and would ecpect to see. Hey, you asked the question. "What is his biggest flaw?" I answered it the way I read it. He's probably around a .330-.340 OBP guy normally and that's where his career OBP might sit. Even you kind of answered it with a "Yeah maybe not elite." That's all. I'd take Manny Machado, even with all the baggage. Even if he's just a third baseman, or maybe a short stop. Not truly elite isn't a big flaw either though. It's why I asked the question because he doesn't have any big flaws as a player. You can certainly not like the person like Jimed, but he's a heck of a player.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jan 23, 2019 3:09:06 GMT -5
Hey, you asked the question. "What is his biggest flaw?" I answered it the way I read it. He's probably around a .330-.340 career OBP guy normally and that's where his career OBP might sit. Even you kind of answered it with a "Yeah maybe not elite." That's all. I'd take Manny Machado, even with all the baggage. Even if he's just a third baseman, or maybe a short stop. Not truly elite isn't a big flaw either though. It's why I asked the question because he doesn't have any big flaws as a player. You can certainly not like the person like Jimed, but he's a heck of a player. I agree, he's a great player. I'd take him all day. We had this same debate last off-season. I thought he was going to be a elite short stop defensively, and he fell short of that though. He would have a ton more value if he was even good there by defensive metrics over a full season. It's just the context of the question that you asked. It can be answered in a number of different ways. A .330-.340 OBP guy is still pretty good, by any standards you use. It's like the off-season thread "Who do you want in 2019?" That can be answered in literally a million different ways and why the mods had to seperate it for their ground rules purposes.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jan 23, 2019 3:31:29 GMT -5
You have to wonder if Manny Machado was betting on the fact that he was going to be a really good defensive short stop over a full season last year.
If he was, he could have made that 300 million easy, I think.
His kind of production on top of good to great defense at short stop is irreplaceable. Maybe it wouldn't of mattered because the owners are only looking at things analytically when it comes to contracts these days.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jan 30, 2019 2:50:42 GMT -5
Wish I had a subscription to the athletic.
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gerry
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Post by gerry on Jan 30, 2019 4:17:26 GMT -5
He stirs some pot every year.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jan 30, 2019 4:18:26 GMT -5
He stirs some pot every year. Who?
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jan 30, 2019 9:00:01 GMT -5
He stirs some pot every year. Perhaps, but are you saying that you really can't see a baseball strike on the horizon? It seems to me it's pretty obvious they're headed for a showdown in the next few years and it's going to get ugly. It's going to be player vs owners as usual (why are players going unsigned so late in the offseason, etc?), small market owners vs large market owners and even perhaps the low service time players versus the established vets. Plus all of the surrounding issues such as tanking and how it's related to the draft, luxury tax limits, no spending floor, even perhaps free agency structure, certainly the manipulation of service time (Kris Bryant), etc. There's a lot there and I doubt they have it settled by the time the Basic Agreement expires.
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gerry
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Post by gerry on Jan 30, 2019 13:48:27 GMT -5
He stirs some pot every year. Perhaps, but are you saying that you really can't see a baseball strike on the horizon? It seems to me it's pretty obvious they're headed for a showdown in the next few years and it's going to get ugly. It's going to be player vs owners as usual (why are players going unsigned so late in the offseason, etc?), small market owners vs large market owners and even perhaps the low service time players versus the established vets. Plus all of the surrounding issues such as tanking and how it's related to the draft, luxury tax limits, no spending floor, even perhaps free agency structure, certainly the manipulation of service time (Kris Bryant), etc. There's a lot there and I doubt they have it settled by the time the Basic Agreement expires. That there are plenty of reasons why a strike can happen doesn’t mean it will happen. There are other options and there is plenty of time for these disparate elements to identify and resolve the issues that are emerging, a process which has already begun. A strike should not be the first option, but the last, as the pain it produces is far reaching (see the recent unnecessary shut down by the White House). The stakeholders in the business of baseball include owners and players, yes, but also millions of fans, player families, minor leaguers prime and ready to debut and their families, concessionaires, vendors, restaurant and pub employees, cabbies, blue and white collar workers, Jimmy Fund and other Sox charities, millions of kids et alia. Averting a strike is the best outcome. Advocating ways to work out problems is the proper course. Fermenting a strike like whatsisname is another way to build clicks and personal power within the system. A reprehensible act. The last owner-player meetings established contract terms which all sides accepted. Some of those terms were eventually identified as core problems, and only recently (specifically the last two FA cycles) have discussions begun in earnest about fixing these problems. Owners will only resist what they believe hurts them and their franchises. Some owners are truly dumb, greedy and short sighted. Most are open to improving their franchises long term, and the majority ultimately prevails in these negotiations. The process of identifying and fixing problems has already begun, in plenty of time for the next round of negotiations, which are still a few years away. On this board we have discussed that the players themselves pushed for and got plenty of concessions, but the wrong ones. They played their cards badly, but are fully enjoying the resultant benefits and likely wouldn’t swap them. We have also discussed the merits of team and individual payroll floors and ceilings, shorter team control prior to FA, paying for prime or actual performance rather than deferring paydays to inadvisable paying thru the nose for past performance. NEW forms of revenue not factored into revenue sharing (cable, MLBam). Etc. These issues can be negotiated and will be negotiated, with or without a strike. All sides lose with a strike, short and long term. No one ever gets everything they want in negotiations, but all sides win can win enough without a strike. IMO, the majority of owners, players and MLB itself will work in good faith to keep improving the game and business of baseball. Ultimately it is in their best interest to do so. An obstacle to this are those who think they are kids on a playground breathlessly yelling “fight, fight, fight”, which seems to be happening. FWIW, I am a 3rd generation union man with some success as a union organizer as a young man. Ultimately we aren’t talking minimum wage here, terrible working conditions, workplace violence, racial inequities, proper job training, opportunities for advancement, hazardous duty, and other such issue. Advocating for change is good. Identifying problems and developing solutions is a process which has already begun in earnest, and is the correct way to resolve them. A strike is a painful last resort, not first option. That’s all I am saying.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jan 30, 2019 14:05:32 GMT -5
Perhaps, but are you saying that you really can't see a baseball strike on the horizon? It seems to me it's pretty obvious they're headed for a showdown in the next few years and it's going to get ugly. It's going to be player vs owners as usual (why are players going unsigned so late in the offseason, etc?), small market owners vs large market owners and even perhaps the low service time players versus the established vets. Plus all of the surrounding issues such as tanking and how it's related to the draft, luxury tax limits, no spending floor, even perhaps free agency structure, certainly the manipulation of service time (Kris Bryant), etc. There's a lot there and I doubt they have it settled by the time the Basic Agreement expires. That there are plenty of reasons why a strike can happen doesn’t mean it will happen. There are other options and there is plenty of time for these disparate elements to identify and resolve the issues that are emerging, a process which has already begun. A strike should not be the first option, but the last, as the pain it produces is far reaching (see the recent unnecessary shut down by the White House). The stakeholders in the business of baseball include owners and players, yes, but also millions of fans, player families, minor leaguers prime and ready to debut and their families, concessionaires, vendors, restaurant and pub employees, cabbies, blue and white collar workers, Jimmy Fund and other Sox charities, millions of kids et alia. Averting a strike is the best outcome. Advocating ways to work out problems is the proper course. Fermenting a strike like whatsisname is another way to build clicks and personal power within the system. A reprehensible act. The last owner-player meetings established contract terms which all sides accepted. Some of those terms were eventually identified as core problems, and only recently (specifically the last two FA cycles) have discussions begun in earnest about fixing these problems. Owners will only resist what they believe hurts them and their franchises. Some owners are truly dumb, greedy and short sighted. Most are open to improving their franchises long term, and the majority ultimately prevails in these negotiations. The process of identifying and fixing problems has already begun, in plenty of time for the next round of negotiations, which are still a few years away. On this board we have discussed that the players themselves pushed for and got plenty of concessions, but the wrong ones. They played their cards badly, but are fully enjoying the resultant benefits and likely wouldn’t swap them. We have also discussed the merits of team and individual payroll floors and ceilings, shorter team control prior to FA, paying for prime or actual performance rather than deferring paydays to inadvisable paying thru the nose for past performance. That NEW forms of revenue not factored into revenue sharing (cable, MLBam). Etc. These issues can be negotiated and will be negotiated, with or without a strike. All sides lose with a strike, short and long term. No one ever gets everything they want in negotiations, but all sides win can win enough without a strike. IMO, the majority of owners, players and MLB itself will work in good faith to keep improving the game and business of baseball. Ultimately it is in their best interest to do so. An obstacle to this are those who think they are kids on a playground breathlessly yelling “fight, fight, fight”, which seems to be happening. FWIW, I am a 3rd generation union man with some success as a union organizer as a young man. Ultimately we aren’t talking minimum wage here, terrible working conditions, workplace violence, racial inequities, proper job training, opportunities for advancement, hazardous duty, and other such issue. Advocating for change is good. Identifying problems and developing solutions is a process which has already begun in earnest, and is the correct way to resolve them. A strike is a painful last resort, not first option. That’s all I am saying. Gerry, I agree with your hopes (and particularly with paragraph 2). However, like the subject matter you referred to, I believe you have a bunch of stubborn parties that won't be able to strike a deal. The players realize that the majority won't get the huge contracts/long deals they used to have. They watch a team like the Red Sox, who are basically a bullpen closer away from being the dominant team they were last year, decide to not spend the money on a needed closer. The watch other teams strip payrolls and tank and they watch service time get manipulated and arbitration eligible guys get cut. They were accustomed to their wages always sky-rocketing, but now they're up against educated front offices who know the evils of long-term contracts, etc. and run their teams like businesses rather than as drunken sailors which was the way some of the teams were run previously. These guys have the data to support their decisions. This is very different for the union and something I'm sure they find disturbing. As an aside, Peter Moylan of the Braves complained about Mejia, the guy kicked out for life, finding a team for 2019 before he did. I doubt he's the only one with that kind of complaint. It's not the Bryce Harpers or Mookie Betts of the worlds that are getting hosed in this new world order. It's the average or below average player and there are far more of those types of players than there are of the superstar varieties who continue to ooh and ah as they get even higher rates - although you now have to wonder if that will be 100% true as Bryce Harper and Manny Machado drag out into February a year after JD Martinez had to settle for a lot less than he anticipated. I doubt the union is going to shrug and say, "well that's how the free market works." They only say that when their clients make huge $ as their wages skyrocket. Meanwhile there is still small market vs big market ownership issues, the question of having a system where tanking is rewarded. Yes, a lot of stuff can be negotiated (DH for both leagues for example, cutting back the schedule from 162 to 154 games, although unlikely, stuff like that), but you have a lot more faith in the players' union and the lords of baseball than I do. I think the change to ivy league types aiming for efficiency in spending has changed the relationship between the owners/players which had been a lot more chummier as the money rolls in for both sides and they learned how to split the pie, but now things are different and I think it will head to a showdown, even if it shouldn't necessarily have to. People sometimes have short memories. It's been 25 years (a full generation) since there's been a work stoppage. I knew under Bud Selig's watch he was determined to never have that happen again, but that's no longer the case. Things have changed. This is a fight for a new generation and unfortunately I think it could be a long one. And I do wonder if at some point the MLBPA will part ways with former player Tony Clark and hire themselves a shark like Donald Fehr.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Jan 30, 2019 15:06:37 GMT -5
People sometimes have short memories. It's been 25 years (a full generation) since there's been a work stoppage. I knew under Bud Selig's watch he was determined to never have that happen again, but that's no longer the case. Things have changed. This is a fight for a new generation and unfortunately I think it could be a long one. And I do wonder if at some point the MLBPA will part ways with former player Tony Clark and hire themselves a shark like Donald Fehr.They haven't replaced Clark, but they are staffing up... blogs.fangraphs.com/the-mlbpa-has-a-new-chief-negotiator/
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jan 30, 2019 15:10:34 GMT -5
People sometimes have short memories. It's been 25 years (a full generation) since there's been a work stoppage. I knew under Bud Selig's watch he was determined to never have that happen again, but that's no longer the case. Things have changed. This is a fight for a new generation and unfortunately I think it could be a long one. And I do wonder if at some point the MLBPA will part ways with former player Tony Clark and hire themselves a shark like Donald Fehr.They haven't replaced Clark, but they are staffing up... blogs.fangraphs.com/the-mlbpa-has-a-new-chief-negotiator/Yeap. In fact, the player's union just extended Tony Clark this off-season.
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Post by ancientsoxfogey on Jan 31, 2019 8:00:31 GMT -5
I look forward to the next few years, when the owners and players start arguing whether the impending work stoppage is a strike or a lockout. Fun times, just like when international negotiations founder over the shape of the table.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Jan 31, 2019 9:41:24 GMT -5
This has the potential to veer off in that direction. With a new top negotiator, it looks as if the MLBPA is rethinking its approach. Let's see how that plays with the owners.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Jan 31, 2019 9:55:18 GMT -5
...Yeap. In fact, the player's union just extended Tony Clark this off-season. Read the article. They're making Meyer the lead on the negotiating team. Clark is smart enough to know what he doesn't know. This to my thinking was where it needed to go: to a professional who has the chops for such negotiations.
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Post by jimed14 on Jan 31, 2019 10:01:59 GMT -5
...Yeap. In fact, the player's union just extended Tony Clark this off-season. Read the article. They're making Meyer the lead on the negotiating team. Clark is smart enough to know what he doesn't know. This to my thinking was where it needed to go: to a professional who has the chops for such negotiations. It's baffling why this wasn't done two CBAs ago.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Jan 31, 2019 10:43:35 GMT -5
Read the article. They're making Meyer the lead on the negotiating team. Clark is smart enough to know what he doesn't know. This to my thinking was where it needed to go: to a professional who has the chops for such negotiations. It's baffling why this wasn't done two CBAs ago. I agree. It was something we discussed after the first of those was negotiated, that the owners seemed intent on instituting something akin to a hard cap. That's only become more obvious. The availability of fine-grained performance data correlated with aging now has ownership leveraging their built-in advantage: the pre-arb and to a lesser extent the arb years. That's obviously something they understand as they've built draft penalties into the thresholds. The players union seems to finally be dumping the belief that they were involved in good-faith negotiations, so no more mister nice-guy.
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Post by jimed14 on Feb 7, 2019 14:22:48 GMT -5
For those who still think the offseason is slow, here's some news that will excite you. Zach Britton has changed his name to Zack Britton.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Feb 7, 2019 14:51:03 GMT -5
For those who still think the offseason is slow, here's some news that will excite you. Zach Britton has changed his name to Zack Britton. Yankees had no clue what they were getting themselves into. Zach is a nice guy, but Zack is a clubhouse cancer.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Feb 7, 2019 14:52:25 GMT -5
Hey it was very nice of the MLB to take a one week break from the offseason right before spring training for the NBA trade deadline.
How in the world is there nothing going on?
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Post by jimed14 on Feb 7, 2019 15:06:45 GMT -5
For those who still think the offseason is slow, here's some news that will excite you. Zach Britton has changed his name to Zack Britton. Yankees had no clue what they were getting themselves into. Zach is a nice guy, but Zack is a clubhouse cancer. He also will be wearing #666
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Feb 7, 2019 18:06:24 GMT -5
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Post by Don Caballero on Feb 7, 2019 18:34:29 GMT -5
Do we know what kind of offers Harper and Machado are getting? Like any real numbers? It's just so strange, not even the Yankees are biting on either of them?
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Feb 7, 2019 18:36:39 GMT -5
Do we know what kind of offers Harper and Machado are getting? Like any real numbers? It's just so strange, not even the Yankees are biting on either of them? Yankees are out. Any other offers are completely unknown. Phillies have stupid money, but they haven't signed either player. Both player's are rumored to not want to go to Philly.
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