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Post by ramireja on Feb 5, 2019 15:03:42 GMT -5
Keith Law discusses his Top 22 Sox Prospects in this insider only article breaking down the AL East prospects. 1. Darwinzon Hernandez (just missed his Top 100) 2. Triston Casas 3. Tanner Houck 4. Jay Groome 5. Michael Chavis 6. Bobby Dalbec 7. Alex Scherff 8. Antoni Flores 9. Danny Diaz 10. Nick Decker 11. Mike Shawaryn 12. Bryan Mata 13. Durbin Feltman 14. Travis Lakins 15. C.J. Chatham 16. Brandon Howlett 17. Denyi Reyes 18. Elih Marrero 19. Zach Schellenger 20. Nick Northcut 21. Jake Thompson 22. Kole Cottam In summary, he's lower on Chavis and Mata than most and left Jarren Duran completely out of the discussion. He's higher on Scherff, probably Danny Diaz, and certainly Elih Marrero (!) than the industry consensus too. I thought this was an interesting nugget on Scherff who he picked as his sleeper pick for the year:
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Post by iakovos11 on Feb 5, 2019 17:38:02 GMT -5
And Jake Thompson at 21? Wow. Curious if he said anything interesting about him. He struggled last year.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Feb 5, 2019 17:45:45 GMT -5
And Jake Thompson at 21? Wow. Curious if he said anything interesting about him. He struggled last year. Nothing new. Says a couple above-average pitches, which I can't say I agree with after one look in which I kinda liked him (I'd say they flash above-average), doesn't miss bats, which I agree with, and that he probably needs to move to the bullpen to see if anything ticks up, which I agree with.
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Post by jimed14 on Feb 5, 2019 18:25:09 GMT -5
Does anyone think that there is going to be a shortage of starting pitchers in the near future? Every team is pretty quick at moving guys to the pen now. Does that prevent some pitchers from becoming decent starters? This doesn't have anything to do with Jake Thompson, but it just seem pretty common now. Of course, maybe it also means that there will be more good relievers.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Feb 5, 2019 19:06:12 GMT -5
Law also rated our system 24th, Yankees were 19. Also said we have more high upside guys than most teams that are in that area of the rankings.
Law for years has been the ultimate upside guy when doing rankings, so guys like Diaz doesn't surprise me. Yet Howlett being that low certainly does.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Feb 5, 2019 19:57:11 GMT -5
Howlett did not perform well in his last showcase for scouts. It was only after he got a prescription change for his contacts on signing with the Sox that he flashed the patience and power combo, earning him a promotion to Lowell. And that was only for a handful of PAs.
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Post by orion09 on Feb 5, 2019 21:36:31 GMT -5
I’m shocked Duran’s not on the list - is it a case of oversight or does he indicate that he doesn’t see upside for whatever reason?
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Feb 5, 2019 23:43:29 GMT -5
Does anyone think that there is going to be a shortage of starting pitchers in the near future? Every team is pretty quick at moving guys to the pen now. Does that prevent some pitchers from becoming decent starters? This doesn't have anything to do with Jake Thompson, but it just seem pretty common now. Of course, maybe it also means that there will be more good relievers. Nobody mentions this, but this is the reason why the opener exists. The Rays used the opener rather than trying to find 5 guys worth using in traditional starter roles - it's not like they used the opener in games Archer and Snell started. Maybe this expands a bit as teams figure that it's a more cost-effective way to put together 9 innings from a staff than trying to find 5 guys who can pitch into a third time through a lineup regularly. And I don't think that converting pitchers in the minors who are going to fail as starters to relievers sooner is preventing pitchers from becoming starters. It's preventing pitchers who aren't going to be starters from having to learn to be relievers on the job in the majors. It's an interesting thing to think about, and I'm hoping to get a couple of guests on the podcast soon who could maybe speak to this, one who I'm already emailing with and another who I was thinking could maybe come on at some point during the season so that I don't frontload all of the Sox FO guys into the preseason including the one coming out tomorrow oh wait did I just say that out loud?
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Post by jimed14 on Feb 6, 2019 12:11:58 GMT -5
Does anyone think that there is going to be a shortage of starting pitchers in the near future? Every team is pretty quick at moving guys to the pen now. Does that prevent some pitchers from becoming decent starters? This doesn't have anything to do with Jake Thompson, but it just seem pretty common now. Of course, maybe it also means that there will be more good relievers. Nobody mentions this, but this is the reason why the opener exists. The Rays used the opener rather than trying to find 5 guys worth using in traditional starter roles - it's not like they used the opener in games Archer and Snell started. Maybe this expands a bit as teams figure that it's a more cost-effective way to put together 9 innings from a staff than trying to find 5 guys who can pitch into a third time through a lineup regularly. And I don't think that converting pitchers in the minors who are going to fail as starters to relievers sooner is preventing pitchers from becoming starters. It's preventing pitchers who aren't going to be starters from having to learn to be relievers on the job in the majors. It's an interesting thing to think about, and I'm hoping to get a couple of guests on the podcast soon who could maybe speak to this, one who I'm already emailing with and another who I was thinking could maybe come on at some point during the season so that I don't frontload all of the Sox FO guys into the preseason including the one coming out tomorrow oh wait did I just say that out loud? With the league talking about reducing service time manipulation and going back to the 15 day DL, I think the opener usage may be slowed down (if they make those changes). It would take off like crazy if they expanded the 25 man roster.
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Post by James Dunne on Feb 6, 2019 12:54:36 GMT -5
One interesting thing about Law's list is that it's a personal list, rather than a crowd-generated one. Having seen Mike, Chris, and Ian go through the process before, a player that one person is particularly high on (or is low/unconvinced on) will be blatant, but when the rankings are averaged then it sort of blends together. They talked about some of the players that one of them had diverged from the other two on during a podcast last October.
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Post by ramireja on Feb 11, 2019 16:51:16 GMT -5
Baseball Prospectus Top 10 for 2019: 1. Bobby Dalbec 2. Michael Chavis 3. Triston Casas 4. Tanner Houck 5. Durbin Feltman 6. Jay Groome 7. Darwinzon Hernandez 8. Bryan Mata 9. Mike Shawaryn 10. Nick Decker
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Feb 14, 2019 7:51:49 GMT -5
BA's full top 30 from the Handbook (they didn't send my 31st Prospect insert - not sure if that was a shipping issue or what)
1. Bobby Dalbec 2. Michael Chavis 3. Darwinzon Herandez 4. Jay Groome 5. Triston Casas 6. Bryan Mata 7. Tanner Houck 8. Mike Shawaryn 9. Antoni Flores 10. CJ Chatham 11. Durbin Feltman 12. Jarren Duran 13. Danny Diaz 14. Brandon Howlett 15. Colten Brewer 16. Nick Decker 17. Travis Lakins 18. Denyi Reyes 19. Nick Northcut 20. Gilberto Jimenez 21. Josh Ockimey 22. Kutter Crawford 23. Zach Schellenger 24. Chase Shugart 25. Eduardo Lopez 26. Alex Scherff 27. Pedro Castellanos 28. Sam Travis 29. Brett Netzer 30. Yoan Aybar
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Post by jimed14 on Feb 14, 2019 9:10:17 GMT -5
Chris or anyone else for that matter, what are the differences between a BP sub and BA sub? Which do you recommend if picking one?
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Post by vermontsox1 on Feb 18, 2019 13:16:38 GMT -5
MLB Pipeline released their Red Sox Top 30 list today:
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Post by Addam603 on Feb 18, 2019 13:23:32 GMT -5
Tidbit from Yoan Aybar
One club official watched him work out and said it was the best bullpen session the system had seen since Michael Kopech, who was part of the Chris Sale trade with the White Sox and might have the most devastating fastball/slider combo of any current prospect.
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Post by James Dunne on Feb 18, 2019 13:52:55 GMT -5
MLB Pipeline released their Red Sox Top 30 list today: Thoughts: Of the major publications, this list aligns most closely with my personal rankings and therefore it is obviously the most correct. In general, Durbin Feltman's write-ups don't align with his ranking positions. Pretty much everyone has written him as a potential closer who is near the majors, with a real chance to make an impact in 2019... but then left him out of the Top 10 of a system that's not strong. Roldani Baldwin is tough to quit, man.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Feb 18, 2019 19:31:17 GMT -5
Re: Feltman's ranking: Potential closer doesn't mean sure thing closer, he's got a really violent delivery that doesn't make one confident he'll stay healthy, and we've got to see what he looks like over a full season doing things like back-to-backs. Also he's got no chance to start like the pitchers ahead of him at least have an opportunity to.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Feb 19, 2019 8:08:48 GMT -5
How do we feel about mlb.com listing Chatham as having the best hit tool? He did well last year but he was rather old for his league. Like he should have done well. Certainly not an easy one because the top guys are power hitters and most of the other guys are rather young. That being said wasn't Duran more impressive given his age?
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Post by James Dunne on Feb 19, 2019 8:27:35 GMT -5
How do we feel about mlb.com listing Chatham as having the best hit tool? He did well last year but he was rather old for his league. Like he should have done well. Certainly not an easy one because the top guys are power hitters and most of the other guys are rather young. That being said wasn't Duran more impressive given his age? The fact that he played better doesn't make his hit tool better. Both have very good contact skills, and Chatham barrels the ball with more consistency. A 55 seems right for Chatham, and I think you could put Duran there as well. Wouldn't put a 60 hit tool on either right now. Duran is really fast though, so he should be able to parlay softer contact into a few more hits a year, and turn a couple doubles into triples, which adds up. That said, my hope is that Antoni Flores is the clear #1 on that list by the end of this year (unless someone else takes a huge step forward). I'd throw a 70 on Dalbec's power, though. Also, does Aybar really have a 70 FB? Even if that's generous, it's pretty exciting.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Feb 20, 2019 9:07:22 GMT -5
My thoughts are simpler: He's got the best hit tool at a 55, which stands out to me mostly in that there isn't anyone in the system they grade with a potential hit tool of better than a 55. And tool grades have nothing to do with performance, which is basically what you're talking about with the age and impressiveness thing (even if that's not necessarily what you might've intended). If Chatham had been in Triple-A or Short-Season, his tool grade should be the same regardless. Same for Duran. ----- Anyway, Ian and I threw together a rough aggregate spreadsheet: docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/134r1BVEJsQQjZT0nAXJUNmukg-nEKL_9_eofDJOOwBY/edit?usp=sharing It looked like we were the only ones to rank Lin, so I removed him. Kind of interesting to see rough tiers forming: clear top 6 or so with a top and bottom half, followed by Flores and Mata and then a tier of 7 to 9 guys (there are a few omissions by Law and the FG guys that look like misses, like Law omitting Duran and FG omitting Scherff and Schellenger even from their honorable mentions, which included guys like Jake Thompson, after they'd ranked down to 35+).
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