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Post by Ryanod1 on Jan 25, 2019 5:29:50 GMT -5
Hey ladies and gents,
This is really a just for fun thread. What prospects are you most excited for this season, and what players do you see making a good jump in prospect status? Who are you thinking sinks a little bit in status? You can obviously list whomever you would like, but I was leaning in the 5-10 players range. I think its expected that an injured player doesn't count, but thats your call. It's pretty hard to not top an injury plagued season (Ex. Casas, Groome, Decker etc.). Anyways, heres some I expect big jumps from.....Also, feel free to go in as little or much depth as you would please. Like I said it's a just for fun type thing, but also a great way to get an idea of players people are excited for. Even something like where they are now vs where you see them ranked by years end (excluding unforseen problems).
Note: Surprise jump can mean unexpected player coming on the radar, or suprising jump from where they rank now vs end of year.
Hitters
1. Jarren Duran 2. Gilberto Jiminez 3. Devlin Granberg 4. Marino Campana 5. Kleiber Rodriguez 6. Ryan Fitzgerald
My surprise big jump: Cole Brannen. I was torn between him and Trey Ball. Something tells me that Brannen will get frustrated with himself, and put on the necessary muscle. I would be that way if I were him. Being a competitive person or player can change a lot in short order! Now ranked 60th, and I see a jump to 35 or so this year.
Pitchers
1. Chase Shugart 2. Zach Schellenger 3. Brayan Bello 4. Connor Berry 5. Nick Duron
Surprise big jump: Alexander Montero. I feel like he may sneak into the top 20 this year! Something along the lines of what Darwinzon and Mata did. Hopefully Aaron Perry comes up big this year as well, but I would have broken my own injury rule selecting him haha. Chris Acosta possibly as well, but he was on the reserve as everyone knows.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jan 25, 2019 7:03:38 GMT -5
I just hope Cole Brannen turns into something that resembles a hitter. Kids got way too many tools if he can figure out some sort of hit tool to go along with the rest of it.
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Post by dmaineah on Jan 25, 2019 19:05:56 GMT -5
For me its all about who's in AA. Because of my work schedule I didn't get to see many games last year but this year is different and i'm excited & hoping to see;
Darwinzon Hernandez Tanner Houck Denyi Reyes Durbin Feltman Bobby Dalbec C J Chatham
Obviously Reyes who is currently at #24 would make the biggest jump if he were to pitch in Boston. Dalbec has been one of my favorites to follow since he was drafted because of his power potential. Based on what he did in the Arizona fall league, I think Hernandez has the best chance to pitch in Boston this year. I'm hoping to see Houck pitch & see (as the #24 overall pick in the 2017 draft) if he has the stuff to be a MLB Starter. I'm also interested in Chathams development both as a hitter & defender & Feltman as a possible future closer. And then, who makes it to AA this year.
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Post by Addam603 on Jan 27, 2019 11:52:13 GMT -5
Pedro Castellanos Elih Marrero Danny Diaz
Alex Scherff Zach Schellenger Tanner Houck
I’ve always been high on Castellanos, but I think this could be the year he figures out his power. The average and K% has always been good, but he has never been able to tap into his plus raw power. He started to do that this winter (albeit in the Venezuelan development league (side note: wonder if there will be any impact on MLB involvement in Venezuela with the political brouhaha going on down there)) so I’m going to take that as a positive development. I like Marrero’s potential as a high average catcher. I like him over Kole Cotton at this point. And I think that Danny Diaz could actually have a good year. I know hamate injuries hurt your power for a season or so, but I think that Diaz could become a stud if he figures out his hit tool. Flores has overtaken him at this point, but I still feel like he can be a legit prospect as he matures.
Scherff is all about health. When he came back from his intercostal injury last year, he finished strong. He kind of reminds me of C.J. Chatham health-wise. He just needs to stay on the field. Same with Schellenger. He’s got nasty stuff when he’s on the mound. I think that Houck is going to have a much better year than last season. Without the distraction of trying to mess with his repertoire, he’s going to establish himself as a surefire starting prospect.
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Post by telson13 on Jan 27, 2019 17:47:07 GMT -5
Hitters: Jarren Duran. He’s the draftee I’m most excited to see, because I’m convinced they hit the lottery on him. I think he pops up on top-100s next winter.
Antoni Flores. Not really a pop-up guy, and already high in the system rankings, but as with Duran, I think the tools package is going to result in full-season performance that opens some eyes pretty wide.
Cole Brannen. Important year for him and I agree with others’ thoughts. I’ve been on the bandwagon since his drafting and I’m staying on.
Eduardo Lopez. I’m big on hit tool guys (even moreso when they’re young) and I think he sticks in CF. Gilberto Jimenez has the better raw tools, and I’m hoping on him too, but I’m more sold on Lopez’s ability to bust out quickly
Pitchers: Darwinzon Hernandez. Already ranked highly in the system, and pitched in AA, so I’m tempted not to include him (like with Houck, a first-rounder, but...). I think he’s going to remind a lot of people of Sean Newcombe, but even better.
Alex Montero, another guy already mentioned. I love his stuff.
Zach Schellenger. Old for low-A, injury issues. But a guy I’m convinced will move really quickly with health.
Tanner Houck. He learns to add what he practiced in a bad first half to what he did for a great second half. Usable repertoire broadens from better command and he makes AAA by the end of the year. Starts popping up in conversations about the better RHP prospects in the game. Questions about becoming an obligate reliever disappear.
Bryan Mata. Growing pains/command issues from last year dissipate as he gets used to his longer levers. Stuff continues to tick up, along with the velo. Starts looking like a good bet to seize a rotation spot in mid-2020.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jan 27, 2019 18:02:05 GMT -5
Hitters: Jarren Duran. He’s the draftee I’m most excited to see, because I’m convinced they hit the lottery on him. I think he pops up on top-100s next winter. I personally feel Duran is going to be a 4th outfielder type. Would love to be wrong though. He needs to work on being more efficient at stealing bases if speed is most of his game too. Nick Decker excites me a lot more. He seems like he could be a JD Drew offensively with the bat. He's really young and he's one of those guys that could make the majors by 22 or 23 at the earliest, which is really beneficial to the Sox in the future.
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Post by telson13 on Jan 27, 2019 18:35:05 GMT -5
Hitters: Jarren Duran. He’s the draftee I’m most excited to see, because I’m convinced they hit the lottery on him. I think he pops up on top-100s next winter. I personally feel Duran is going to be a 4th outfielder type. Would love to be wrong though. He needs to work on being more efficient at stealing bases if speed is most of his game too. Nick Decker excites me a lot more. He seems like he could be a JD Drew offensively with the bat. He's really young and he's one of those guys that could make the majors by 22 or 23 at the earliest, which is really beneficial to the Sox in the future. Yeah, I’m just particularly high on Duran. I was at the time of the draft, and what he did after obviously exacerbated that. His speed is truly outstanding; I don’t put much stock at all in lower-level SB totals. I agree that his baserunning needs work, but I think the leap in training/coaching from college to the Sox system is relatively large for him, and I think his natural athletic ability will start to really shine. Basically, he strikes me as a very moldeable player. I think his speed/ability to play CF, and his hit tool, gives him a high floor (4th OF seems about right), but I think his hit tool (which is average to solid) will continue to develop. I think there’s a plus hitter with elite speed and gap power (10-15 HR, but lots of 2b and 3b) there. He has a pretty good eye, and reasonable discipline. I put his 2-5% outcome at TB Carl Crawford with better plate discipline but maybe slightly worse contact. I almost put Decker on there, I just have some reservations about his hit tool. I think if it develops and he can get his raw power to translate, you might be right. Corner OF guys are a tougher sell for me because today’s game doesn’t really reward .250/20-25 HR guys. They’re pretty fungible. But if he proves he can take some walks and hit for a little more power than that, it’s a different story. I guess I’m concerned about his floor, and the likelihood of him reaching his ceiling. Kind of the same concern I have with Dalbec...if it all goes right, he could be a .250/.350/.550 hitter with excellent defense. But the contact rate scares me. Joey Gallo lite doesn’t inspire much. To be sure, I think this draft class (for positional guys at least, and Feltman) was really impressive. I didn’t even mention Casas, Northcutt, or Howlett, who are all pretty exciting in their own right. Casas could be a *monster*. I actually really wish the Sox would open their minds a bit and look at him as a 2-way player. His arm’s probably going to be wasted at 1b, cuz I don’t see his range/body type lasting at 3b. But I’d bet he could be a mid-90s reliever in his “spare time.”
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jan 27, 2019 19:53:32 GMT -5
I wouldn't put Casas on the mound. That could risk more injuries which could derail his career. I'm really skeptical of any 2 way players excpet for Ohtani really, and I still question Ohtani's hit tool. He was great in a limited amount of at bats last year, but small sample size etc.
I agree with most of what you said though. The Sox did as well as they could last year in the draft.
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Post by jimed14 on Jan 27, 2019 20:00:10 GMT -5
I personally feel Duran is going to be a 4th outfielder type. Would love to be wrong though. He needs to work on being more efficient at stealing bases if speed is most of his game too. Nick Decker excites me a lot more. He seems like he could be a JD Drew offensively with the bat. He's really young and he's one of those guys that could make the majors by 22 or 23 at the earliest, which is really beneficial to the Sox in the future. Yeah, I’m just particularly high on Duran. I was at the time of the draft, and what he did after obviously exacerbated that. His speed is truly outstanding; I don’t put much stock at all in lower-level SB totals. I agree that his baserunning needs work, but I think the leap in training/coaching from college to the Sox system is relatively large for him, and I think his natural athletic ability will start to really shine. Basically, he strikes me as a very moldeable player. I think his speed/ability to play CF, and his hit tool, gives him a high floor (4th OF seems about right), but I think his hit tool (which is average to solid) will continue to develop. I think there’s a plus hitter with elite speed and gap power (10-15 HR, but lots of 2b and 3b) there. He has a pretty good eye, and reasonable discipline. I put his 2-5% outcome at TB Carl Crawford with better plate discipline but maybe slightly worse contact. I almost put Decker on there, I just have some reservations about his hit tool. I think if it develops and he can get his raw power to translate, you might be right. Corner OF guys are a tougher sell for me because today’s game doesn’t really reward .250/20-25 HR guys. They’re pretty fungible. But if he proves he can take some walks and hit for a little more power than that, it’s a different story. I guess I’m concerned about his floor, and the likelihood of him reaching his ceiling. Kind of the same concern I have with Dalbec...if it all goes right, he could be a .250/.350/.550 hitter with excellent defense. But the contact rate scares me. Joey Gallo lite doesn’t inspire much. To be sure, I think this draft class (for positional guys at least, and Feltman) was really impressive. I didn’t even mention Casas, Northcutt, or Howlett, who are all pretty exciting in their own right. Casas could be a *monster*. I actually really wish the Sox would open their minds a bit and look at him as a 2-way player. His arm’s probably going to be wasted at 1b, cuz I don’t see his range/body type lasting at 3b. But I’d bet he could be a mid-90s reliever in his “spare time.” *shoots nerf gun at telson13*
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gerry
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Post by gerry on Jan 27, 2019 20:02:26 GMT -5
If his arm is that good, and just learning the role of a 2-pitch RP in his “spare time” he could still focus on his development as a hitter and 1B. Any manager would be happy with the availabilty of an additional hard throwing reliever.
It suddenly seems logical that the demonstrably successful increased versatility of bench players, followed by the demonstrable success of Otani, would lead to increased versatility of young position players as RP’s.
There are several Sox position players who have cannons for arms. Certainly one or three might be valuable part time relievers in addition to hitting and fielding their positions well. With a deep and versatile bench available to field multiple positions, could these cannons augment a tired bullpen in middle innings?
This is not a wild leap. I am sure we share baseball memories from our childhood teams in which (in my case) our best pitchers were also our best C, 1B and 3B and among our best hitters as well. This was a reality in the youth and school programs I coached or observed.
Is specialization the right choice for every single kid??? Not in Shohei’s case. Who told the Ace Babe Ruth he could no longer pitch? Where do these dominant skillsets go to die in favor of universal specialization? Travel teams? Big HS programs? college? Minors? Telson, you may have identified the next inefficiency. I expect lots of Trey Ball comments.
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Post by Ryanod1 on Jan 28, 2019 5:33:18 GMT -5
I just hope Cole Brannen turns into something that resembles a hitter. Kids got way too many tools if he can figure out some sort of hit tool to go along with the rest of it. I completely agree! I remember (believe it was mlb.com) gave him future grades of 50 hit 45 power and 70 speed. I get that this doesn't mean all that much, but at the same time it shows his upside. His SP evaluation shows that hes making an ungodly amount of weak contact due to strength, but luckily that is a changeable piece to the puzzle!
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Post by Ryanod1 on Jan 28, 2019 5:39:32 GMT -5
For me its all about who's in AA. Because of my work schedule I didn't get to see many games last year but this year is different and i'm excited & hoping to see; Darwinzon Hernandez Tanner Houck Denyi Reyes Durbin Feltman Bobby Dalbec C J Chatham Obviously Reyes who is currently at #24 would make the biggest jump if he were to pitch in Boston. Dalbec has been one of my favorites to follow since he was drafted because of his power potential. Based on what he did in the Arizona fall league, I think Hernandez has the best chance to pitch in Boston this year. I'm hoping to see Houck pitch & see (as the #24 overall pick in the 2017 draft) if he has the stuff to be a MLB Starter. I'm also interested in Chathams development both as a hitter & defender & Feltman as a possible future closer. And then, who makes it to AA this year. Great list! When making this post I was thinking it may be heavily in favor of the AA and AAA teams. For no reason other than the fact you would be more likely to hear/see them. I can absolutely see all the players on the list jumping in rankings as well as the potential to make their MLB debuts. Reyes is the larger question mark for me because I haven't had the chance to watch him pitch. So I can only make a judgement based on a bio which is not fair. I am super excited for every other guy you listed. If you have the chance to this year I would keep an eye on the Salem Sox along with the Greenville team. Salem is by far the most exciting for me to watch, but that's due to the potential there. IMO the higher ceilings lie there, and the Greenville squads (excluding a Feltman, Dalbec, Hernandez type).
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Post by Ryanod1 on Jan 28, 2019 5:47:59 GMT -5
Pedro Castellanos Elih Marrero Danny Diaz Alex Scherff Zach Schellenger Tanner Houck I’ve always been high on Castellanos, but I think this could be the year he figures out his power. The average and K% has always been good, but he has never been able to tap into his plus raw power. He started to do that this winter (albeit in the Venezuelan development league (side note: wonder if there will be any impact on MLB involvement in Venezuela with the political brouhaha going on down there)) so I’m going to take that as a positive development. I like Marrero’s potential as a high average catcher. I like him over Kole Cotton at this point. And I think that Danny Diaz could actually have a good year. I know hamate injuries hurt your power for a season or so, but I think that Diaz could become a stud if he figures out his hit tool. Flores has overtaken him at this point, but I still feel like he can be a legit prospect as he matures. Scherff is all about health. When he came back from his intercostal injury last year, he finished strong. He kind of reminds me of C.J. Chatham health-wise. He just needs to stay on the field. Same with Schellenger. He’s got nasty stuff when he’s on the mound. I think that Houck is going to have a much better year than last season. Without the distraction of trying to mess with his repertoire, he’s going to establish himself as a surefire starting prospect. I like the way you think haha. Its funny that you mention Castellanos because I was probably the most torn with him. He keeps putting up good averages, but its baffling with the power. With his height you would think the leverage alone would generate a little more. It may be a stupid thought on my end, but I did feel that way. Mentioning the Venezuela situation was very smart. Never even crossed my mind, but now is a clear factor. Marrero certainly interests me as well. Mainly due to the contact abilities, but he was also a highly regarded recruit. He spent time at a smaller college, but I feel like that may not matter as much anymore. The scouts clearly know what they are doing (vs me) so they may see a lot of upside in multiple categories with him. Kole Cottam is simple...That power! haha. This is a really big year for the sox prospects. Last year, a lot of our new or top prospects went down (and fast!). A silver lining to the whole injury train last year was being able to give different players an opportunity to play where they normally wouldn't as much. For example, Groome going down was far from a good thing, but it alloted the team a chance to try someone else out.
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Post by Ryanod1 on Jan 28, 2019 6:01:00 GMT -5
Hitters: Jarren Duran. He’s the draftee I’m most excited to see, because I’m convinced they hit the lottery on him. I think he pops up on top-100s next winter. Antoni Flores. Not really a pop-up guy, and already high in the system rankings, but as with Duran, I think the tools package is going to result in full-season performance that opens some eyes pretty wide. Cole Brannen. Important year for him and I agree with others’ thoughts. I’ve been on the bandwagon since his drafting and I’m staying on. Eduardo Lopez. I’m big on hit tool guys (even moreso when they’re young) and I think he sticks in CF. Gilberto Jimenez has the better raw tools, and I’m hoping on him too, but I’m more sold on Lopez’s ability to bust out quickly Pitchers: Darwinzon Hernandez. Already ranked highly in the system, and pitched in AA, so I’m tempted not to include him (like with Houck, a first-rounder, but...). I think he’s going to remind a lot of people of Sean Newcombe, but even better. Alex Montero, another guy already mentioned. I love his stuff. Zach Schellenger. Old for low-A, injury issues. But a guy I’m convinced will move really quickly with health. Tanner Houck. He learns to add what he practiced in a bad first half to what he did for a great second half. Usable repertoire broadens from better command and he makes AAA by the end of the year. Starts popping up in conversations about the better RHP prospects in the game. Questions about becoming an obligate reliever disappear. Bryan Mata. Growing pains/command issues from last year dissipate as he gets used to his longer levers. Stuff continues to tick up, along with the velo. Starts looking like a good bet to seize a rotation spot in mid-2020. You may have my favorite list so far, and I completely agree with your evaluations. I am glad that so many people are thinking great things about Jarren Duran. There are a lot of players Boston has drafted that I felt this high on and they didn't pan out. Something seems different with Duran though, and his stats from last season were ridiculous. Both Flores and Lopez offer a lot of hope in the future. Assuming we keep our core if young players in the majors there isn't a huge rush to produce them. With Bogey at SS, and our stud outfield it's on of the few positions we are set (for now). I was hoping for something along the lines of an Andrelton Simmons type for Flores, and maybe a Aaron Hicks type for Lopez. Wishful thinking, but I don't think its hugely unrealistic (I could have said Acuna or Soto . Great comparrison by the way with Hernandez and Newcomb. Not sure I have ever heard that one, but can certianly see it. I recently had watched that quick video talking about Hernandez in the fall league. He had a couple short stints there, but absured strikeout numbers. Something like 24th in AFL with K's yet he pitched 11 1/3 innings or so. He was also described as unhittable making some really good prospects look bad.
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Post by Ryanod1 on Jan 28, 2019 6:06:50 GMT -5
Hitters: Jarren Duran. He’s the draftee I’m most excited to see, because I’m convinced they hit the lottery on him. I think he pops up on top-100s next winter. I personally feel Duran is going to be a 4th outfielder type. Would love to be wrong though. He needs to work on being more efficient at stealing bases if speed is most of his game too. Nick Decker excites me a lot more. He seems like he could be a JD Drew offensively with the bat. He's really young and he's one of those guys that could make the majors by 22 or 23 at the earliest, which is really beneficial to the Sox in the future. Hope your wrong too haha. Not being mean. Just have high hopes for him. In the Jarren Duran post I made some comments regarding his basestealing as well. Those were really the only concern with him not knowing if it was a speed, baseball IQ, awareness etc. A guy with his supposed wheels should generally post a little high percentage. I believe he ended the season on a better note with efficiency, but i'm not certain. Decker is a guy i'm chomping at the bit to see also. Most of this is probably intrigue due to me loving the prospect stuff, and not getting to see him due to injury. Same can be said for Aaron Perry and Chris Acosta. If Decker ends up in the JD Drew mold then I can certainly accept that.
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Post by Ryanod1 on Jan 28, 2019 6:20:23 GMT -5
I personally feel Duran is going to be a 4th outfielder type. Would love to be wrong though. He needs to work on being more efficient at stealing bases if speed is most of his game too. Nick Decker excites me a lot more. He seems like he could be a JD Drew offensively with the bat. He's really young and he's one of those guys that could make the majors by 22 or 23 at the earliest, which is really beneficial to the Sox in the future. Yeah, I’m just particularly high on Duran. I was at the time of the draft, and what he did after obviously exacerbated that. His speed is truly outstanding; I don’t put much stock at all in lower-level SB totals. I agree that his baserunning needs work, but I think the leap in training/coaching from college to the Sox system is relatively large for him, and I think his natural athletic ability will start to really shine. Basically, he strikes me as a very moldeable player. I think his speed/ability to play CF, and his hit tool, gives him a high floor (4th OF seems about right), but I think his hit tool (which is average to solid) will continue to develop. I think there’s a plus hitter with elite speed and gap power (10-15 HR, but lots of 2b and 3b) there. He has a pretty good eye, and reasonable discipline. I put his 2-5% outcome at TB Carl Crawford with better plate discipline but maybe slightly worse contact. I almost put Decker on there, I just have some reservations about his hit tool. I think if it develops and he can get his raw power to translate, you might be right. Corner OF guys are a tougher sell for me because today’s game doesn’t really reward .250/20-25 HR guys. They’re pretty fungible. But if he proves he can take some walks and hit for a little more power than that, it’s a different story. I guess I’m concerned about his floor, and the likelihood of him reaching his ceiling. Kind of the same concern I have with Dalbec...if it all goes right, he could be a .250/.350/.550 hitter with excellent defense. But the contact rate scares me. Joey Gallo lite doesn’t inspire much. To be sure, I think this draft class (for positional guys at least, and Feltman) was really impressive. I didn’t even mention Casas, Northcutt, or Howlett, who are all pretty exciting in their own right. Casas could be a *monster*. I actually really wish the Sox would open their minds a bit and look at him as a 2-way player. His arm’s probably going to be wasted at 1b, cuz I don’t see his range/body type lasting at 3b. But I’d bet he could be a mid-90s reliever in his “spare time.” I have the same feeling about Duran (clearly), and same goes with Decker. We will get a chance to see what he's got this year, but he does have a long way to go. If he becomes a player like Josh Reddick then its not as exciting for me. Not to say that Reddick isn't valuable by any means, but as you said there's not as much of a reward anymore for the .250/20 types. Those numbers are more of a floor than a good end goal when it comes to a highly drafted outfielder. With the Carl Crawford comparison it would be fantastic. Duran's value, if he can play above avg to plus OF, would be off the charts. Both him and Granberg I believe are undervalued in the ranking world. I know much less than the people doing this, but playing college ball in the Big 12 I got to see what a "special" player is vs a lower end one. Casas falls in the "special" player type for sure haha. Players like him just have that different sound off the bat than anyone else. The 2 way deal I would hold off on, but keep in the back pocket. It's such a rare thing to pull off due to the injury risk. I have a feeling that even TB may back off that option for McKAY for this same reason. To much concentration is necessary in baseball to have that many things go through your mind. Dalbec could certainly do the same. I both pitched and played a few positions, and it really effected me physically, but mostly was a mental strain. You can't worry about pitching itself, knowing each batter, all of the scenarios that come up etc then get in the mindset to properly hit. It definitely can be done where I wasn't even a fraction as talented, but still not a high percentage option.
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Post by Ryanod1 on Jan 28, 2019 6:30:58 GMT -5
If his arm is that good, and just learning the role of a 2-pitch RP in his “spare time” he could still focus on his development as a hitter and 1B. Any manager would be happy with the availabilty of an additional hard throwing reliever. It suddenly seems logical that the demonstrably successful increased versatility of bench players, followed by the demonstrable success of Otani, would lead to increased versatility of young position players as RP’s. There are several Sox position players who have cannons for arms. Certainly one or three might be valuable part time relievers in addition to hitting and fielding their positions well. With a deep and versatile bench available to field multiple positions, could these cannons augment a tired bullpen in middle innings? This is not a wild leap. I am sure we share baseball memories from our childhood teams in which (in my case) our best pitchers were also our best C, 1B and 3B and among our best hitters as well. This was a reality in the youth and school programs I coached or observed. Is specialization the right choice for every single kid??? Not in Shohei’s case. Who told the Ace Babe Ruth he could no longer pitch? Where do these dominant skillsets go to die in favor of universal specialization? Travel teams? Big HS programs? college? Minors? Telson, you may have identified the next inefficiency. I expect lots of Trey Ball comments. You hit the nail on the head Gerry. It seems as though there is a major push these days in versitility, which makes perfect sense. The game has evolved enough to justify role expansions. Players are so darn athletic, and physically mature that its really not too mcuh to ask either. There is definitely a line that coaches will need to learn where it is too much. I'm not a big fan of the 2 way ball, as much as I am with just position versitility. Having a guy like Casas practice in relief I do believe would be good. He doesn't have to be concerned with an SP stuff, but is a nice back pocket option if needed. I was laughing really hard when you mentioned the best pitchers being C, 1B and 3B. When I played on a travel team before college I ran into this exact scenario. Our catcher was drafted by the Chicago Whitesox, and threw about 95-96 mph. Side note, he could hit the living crap out of the ball too. So many moon shot HRs, and non stop XB hits from that kid. Anyways, when I was on the mound he always caught for me. When he threw the ball back to me it was always much faster than I was throwing to him lol. At that point I was in the 86 mph range yet I would be the one leaving the game with the bruised hand .
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Post by telson13 on Jan 28, 2019 13:52:17 GMT -5
I wouldn't put Casas on the mound. That could risk more injuries which could derail his career. I'm really skeptical of any 2 way players excpet for Ohtani really, and I still question Ohtani's hit tool. He was great in a limited amount of at bats last year, but small sample size etc. I agree with most of what you said though. The Sox did as well as they could last year in the draft. Oh, trust me, it’s entirely for the selfish reason of wanting to watch a 2-way player regularly. 98% novelty and, like, 2% rational thinking about roster spot management. Lol, obviously having one great 1b (or even one passable 1b) is way better than having an organizational filler 1b-RP. *However*, I do also think that the taboo against 2-way players is a mistake, which Ohtani (sort of) proves. I don’t have the link (it’s too old to come up on Ohtani’s page), but his offensive performance last year was essentially entirely predicted by the folks at fangraphs. I think it was Craig Edwards. Basically it looked at hitter/pitcher ranks in contrast to their peers in the Japanese league and MLB and used prior player translations (via %iles) to predict what Ohtani might do. His hitting last year wasn’t really a fluke (inasmuch as any 152 wRC+ season isn’t fluky)...if I recall, they predicted a wRC+ around 120-130. Now, like you, I’m not sold on his hit tool 100%, but it’s pretty close for me now. The FG page has him as a 30/40 and that’s obviously grossly inaccurate. Probably more like 50-55/60 based on last year. He’s definitely shown some pretty impressive adaptability. Early in the year the book was tying him up inside on the hands with hard stuff, and I saw him get his hands in and turn on heat like it was no problem after being successfully busted inside/swinging over those pitches in the first few games. He had a 43% hard-hit rate, and a 37/37/26 pull/C/oppo breakdown. He also had a BB rate over 10%. He strikes out a lot, but it’s also not like he has a contact “problem,” he’s just 6’4” and he swings like he plans to do damage. Basically, he’s the 1% ideal outcome for Bobby Dalbec as a hitter, from the L side, and just 1 year older. I really, REALLY wish he’d wanted to come to Boston. <sighs>
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Post by telson13 on Jan 28, 2019 14:06:54 GMT -5
If his arm is that good, and just learning the role of a 2-pitch RP in his “spare time” he could still focus on his development as a hitter and 1B. Any manager would be happy with the availabilty of an additional hard throwing reliever. It suddenly seems logical that the demonstrably successful increased versatility of bench players, followed by the demonstrable success of Otani, would lead to increased versatility of young position players as RP’s. There are several Sox position players who have cannons for arms. Certainly one or three might be valuable part time relievers in addition to hitting and fielding their positions well. With a deep and versatile bench available to field multiple positions, could these cannons augment a tired bullpen in middle innings? This is not a wild leap. I am sure we share baseball memories from our childhood teams in which (in my case) our best pitchers were also our best C, 1B and 3B and among our best hitters as well. This was a reality in the youth and school programs I coached or observed. Is specialization the right choice for every single kid??? Not in Shohei’s case. Who told the Ace Babe Ruth he could no longer pitch? Where do these dominant skillsets go to die in favor of universal specialization? Travel teams? Big HS programs? college? Minors? Telson, you may have identified the next inefficiency. I expect lots of Trey Ball comments. In fairness, I think the honing of the craft is at such a high level now that 2-way player development IS largely fruitless. There’s big risk you just end up with a person mediocre at two things instead of good at one. BUT, I also think that there’s an inefficiency there that’s exploitable. Ohtani as a starter is, I think, a tremendously rare exception. But as you said Gerry, a 2-pitch (or even “1-pitch”, a la Rivera/Jansen/Britton) reliever is another story. And that’s a tremendous roster flexibility help. So I don’t think it hurts to look at guys with big arms like Dalbec or Casas as relievers, and give them reps out of the bullpen. I think success will depend on natural ability to command, and having an outstanding FB (in terms of location, movement, AND velocity), and not needing to really *refine* a second/third pitch, but already having an adequate (45-50) one. I think there obviously needs to be significant buy-in from the player, but I also think that the “out-of-hand” dismissal of 2-way development is a mistake. It just needs to focus on a small fraction of players who are capable and WANT to do it. With the way the game is continuing towards increased RP usage, this is an exploitable roster spot saver.
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Post by telson13 on Jan 28, 2019 14:26:30 GMT -5
Hernandez was very high on the AFL statcast leaderboards for spin on both FB and CB, and was sitting 97 with FB velocity (albeit as a reliever). His repertoire is a lot like Newcombe’s, probably better stuff, but the effort in his delivery...I’m hoping they can clean him up a little, because his command/control are just so inconsistent. Newcombe took some big steps last year and I’m hoping D does the same this summer.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Jan 28, 2019 16:52:05 GMT -5
In fairness, I think the honing of the craft is at such a high level now that 2-way player development IS largely fruitless. There’s big risk you just end up with a person mediocre at two things instead of good at one. BUT, I also think that there’s an inefficiency there that’s exploitable. Ohtani as a starter is, I think, a tremendously rare exception. But as you said Gerry, a 2-pitch (or even “1-pitch”, a la Rivera/Jansen/Britton) reliever is another story. And that’s a tremendous roster flexibility help. So I don’t think it hurts to look at guys with big arms like Dalbec or Casas as relievers, and give them reps out of the bullpen. I think success will depend on natural ability to command, and having an outstanding FB (in terms of location, movement, AND velocity), and not needing to really *refine* a second/third pitch, but already having an adequate (45-50) one. I think there obviously needs to be significant buy-in from the player, but I also think that the “out-of-hand” dismissal of 2-way development is a mistake. It just needs to focus on a small fraction of players who are capable and WANT to do it. With the way the game is continuing towards increased RP usage, this is an exploitable roster spot saver. Here's something: blogs.fangraphs.com/has-position-player-pitching-reached-its-peak-or-nadir/Position player pitching is still pretty rare overall, but between the ever increasing pressure to fill innings that starters no longer pitch, and the proof of concept that Ohtani represents, I think you're going to see teams start to take a more serious look at two-way players.
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Post by Ryanod1 on Jan 28, 2019 22:32:16 GMT -5
I wouldn't put Casas on the mound. That could risk more injuries which could derail his career. I'm really skeptical of any 2 way players excpet for Ohtani really, and I still question Ohtani's hit tool. He was great in a limited amount of at bats last year, but small sample size etc. I agree with most of what you said though. The Sox did as well as they could last year in the draft. Oh, trust me, it’s entirely for the selfish reason of wanting to watch a 2-way player regularly. 98% novelty and, like, 2% rational thinking about roster spot management. Lol, obviously having one great 1b (or even one passable 1b) is way better than having an organizational filler 1b-RP. *However*, I do also think that the taboo against 2-way players is a mistake, which Ohtani (sort of) proves. I don’t have the link (it’s too old to come up on Ohtani’s page), but his offensive performance last year was essentially entirely predicted by the folks at fangraphs. I think it was Craig Edwards. Basically it looked at hitter/pitcher ranks in contrast to their peers in the Japanese league and MLB and used prior player translations (via %iles) to predict what Ohtani might do. His hitting last year wasn’t really a fluke (inasmuch as any 152 wRC+ season isn’t fluky)...if I recall, they predicted a wRC+ around 120-130. Now, like you, I’m not sold on his hit tool 100%, but it’s pretty close for me now. The FG page has him as a 30/40 and that’s obviously grossly inaccurate. Probably more like 50-55/60 based on last year. He’s definitely shown some pretty impressive adaptability. Early in the year the book was tying him up inside on the hands with hard stuff, and I saw him get his hands in and turn on heat like it was no problem after being successfully busted inside/swinging over those pitches in the first few games. He had a 43% hard-hit rate, and a 37/37/26 pull/C/oppo breakdown. He also had a BB rate over 10%. He strikes out a lot, but it’s also not like he has a contact “problem,” he’s just 6’4” and he swings like he plans to do damage. Basically, he’s the 1% ideal outcome for Bobby Dalbec as a hitter, from the L side, and just 1 year older. I really, REALLY wish he’d wanted to come to Boston. <sighs> This is really impressive Telson13. Im amazed at how well you broke down hitting statistics like that. I know a lot of people on this site have a good understanding of advanced statistics, but it will always impress me. I laughed a little bit last year when they showed his projected hit tool (Not sure if it was the site that shows current vs future?). Based on his mechanics, IQ, K zone knowledge, swing path etc he should have been given the benefit of the doubt on the hit tool. It's not like we are watching Richie Sexton, The Big Cat or Adam Dunn walk up to the plate. He has a plan, smooth enough swing and a quick bat to show 45-55 tool (probably closer to 55). As for the 2-way stuff I am with you. It truly is a novelty, but really fun to watch. It is going to be a lot more common to see in the next 10 years. Maybe to the point that it can open up an extra roster slot for a team if the player is good enough. When Ohtani is healthy they don't need one player for fielding/hitting, and another for an SP slot. So that would let the Angels bring up another very talented player that Ohtani opened up. Side note: As long as the 2 way doesn't hit like Bartolo Colon then they should be golden haha. He may be my favorite player of all time at the plate because its always hilarious (see his HR lol). His HR was far and away the funniest, but in came Pablo Sandoval blowing his belt up swinging
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Post by Ryanod1 on Jan 28, 2019 22:48:38 GMT -5
Hernandez was very high on the AFL statcast leaderboards for spin on both FB and CB, and was sitting 97 with FB velocity (albeit as a reliever). His repertoire is a lot like Newcombe’s, probably better stuff, but the effort in his delivery...I’m hoping they can clean him up a little, because his command/control are just so inconsistent. Newcombe took some big steps last year and I’m hoping D does the same this summer. I assume this is regarding my comment? I saw the same with Hernandez. The spin rate on his curve is seriously impressive (3,500 rpm?). If it were up to me I wouldn't even consider moving him to the bullpen for at least 4-5 years because the payoff is huge. The hitters are so damn talented now that 2 pitches would make life a little more tough with a below average command profile, but at the same time his plus pitches are remarkable enough to cover up the control. With close to average command/control profile, exceptional extension to plate, not tipping pitches and a tough angle it will do just fine. Both lefty and righty hitters alike are not going to enjoy facing his electric stuff. Hernandez's situation remnd me a lot of Houck when we talk about his mechanics needing clean up. The problem here is exactly what happened to Houck early last season. The sox cleaned it up, and he lost velocity, control, movement, arm angle, deception etc. It was the kiss of death for a player like Tanner. Sometimes it pays to adjust mechanics, but a lot of times what they did was good enough to get them in the spot to be drafted. Doing so has proven to be one mans trash is another mans riches for a team like the Yankees. All of their pitchers they have go back to their old mechanics where its most comfortable. How many Yankees minor leaguers do you see that have increased velocity since joing them (See Sheffield, Adams, Acevedo and many others)? I would say close to 85% gain prior+ velocity/life. I actually believe this is an insanely smart move, but it is purely selfish. Prospects these days aren't expected to stick with a team long term like they used to. So why care about the longevity of their careers when you only will have them 5-6 years? This doesn't prove true for every player, but we know thats pretty rare. It is an absolutely horrible way to treat someone, but from a business standpoint you let them deal with shit mechanics in exchange for plus stuff. Down the road its not our problem tactic I guess.
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Post by Ryanod1 on Jan 28, 2019 22:51:39 GMT -5
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nomar
Veteran
Posts: 10,787
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Post by nomar on Jan 29, 2019 11:03:56 GMT -5
Durran's lack of power and discipline worry me.
Decker, Diaz, Flores, Jiminez, and Howlett are who I'm most excited to see.
I like Campana as a sleeper if he fills out a bit more. It would make him even worse of a fielder and definitely relegate him to LF at best, but he could be a big power guy. Sometimes it takes 6'4 kids a while to grow into themselves with fluidity.
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