Who's up...Who's down?

You pretty much nailed exactly why I’m so excited about Duran. And, you hit my favorite point: his hit tool. It’s the one thing that kills careers...guys can always get stronger, change bat paths, etc. But if a guy can’t see spin, he’s done. Jason Place. Leaving LBS, I wonder if Duran will have a Tzu-Wei-Lin hitting revival...lots of LD and maybe a few more HR as he gets stronger and his contact quality improves. He’s already got long levers. And his contact ability is pretty good. I just have a really good feeling there, there’s so much room to improve...but at the least we know he can pick his pitches and get bat to ball, and that’s the hardest tool to find, and develop.

I get most excited about players that might come up in 2019 and 2020 in terms of impact. Here is the order - not saying though that they will produce just excited to see if they can produce at high level- and seeing how most on list are from the weakest - relief. I'm excited too see if any can emerge.

1--- Feltman
2--- Hernandez
3--- Chavis
4--- Lakins
5--- Houck
6---- Dalbec

I'm not a fan of sluggers that aren't much of a hitter so Dalbec scares me a lot.

And I'm excited to see if Groome can finally pitch for most of the season. I'm highly frustrated between he and Chavis but eager to see if they can get on a good strong run early on with some sustainability.

Paxton was the perfect example! I have always been a big fan of his, and expected big things (same with Danny Hultzen). It was frustrating to see him go down so often with injuries, and had no idea it was due to the mechanics problem. This became obvious when he came out throwing 100 mph, and straight up dominated. If you look at Chris Sale I guarantee that is a lot of years messing with his mechanics, and inevitably switching back to what worked. Clearly what he has works even though its not a recipe for longevity. I guess Nolan Ryan threw as hard as he could every pitch, threw 200 pitches per game, and lasted until he was 46 years old. Thats far from the norm, but he just did what worked for him. 

I agree that D and Houck should come up at some point to the bullpen. I feel the same with Feltman. These are guys that just need the final polish of a MLB pitching coach. With certain pitchers I don't see as much value in just getting them innings. Sometimes they have just outgrown what the level itself offers, and need the next step. Its like a kid that becomes bored in class because he blows through his assignment. I love the bullpen approach as well when they come up because it lets them see what its all about in an easier situation than starting. Then both the Sox and the player get an idea of what they have. Even if its confirming the fastball being effective or something along those lines.

Don’t sell Lin short, though. He very obviously was taught to hit the ball on the ground all his life, because of his speed. Two years ago he changed his swing and the results are actually pretty impressive for a defensively-minded SS. He slashed .302/.379/.491 (an IsoP of 0.189, which is pretty solid) starting with his new swing in AA, and went from typically 50+% GB to 33%, with a change in GB/FB ratio of nearly 2:1 to less than 1. His HR/FB rate went from under 3% to over 8%. He struggled in AAA that year but came back last year and hit .307/.362/.448 in a half-season in AAA. Other than his tough AAA stint in 2017, his line drive rate has been over 22%, and he’s walked more than 11% in his MLB time, and kept up that LD rate. He’s never going to be a guy who hits for power, but he draws walks and he hits a lot of LD, meaning he’s got a good shot at high OBPs and good BAs with solid XBH totals. He’s actually a post-prospect guy I’m very excited to see develop, because I think he’ll surprise. I think he’s very capable of putting up a .280/.350/.430 line, which isn’t bad at all for an above-avg defensive SS who’s making league minimum.

I forgot Feltman, I’m *very* curious to watch his ascension this year. Lakins, too, since he looks like a guy who could go multiple innings regularly. I genuinely think both could be 7th/8th inning options by year’s end.

Basically, I think we’ve seen Lin’s floor, because he’s more or less established that. It’s basically a slightly below league-average hitter (96 wRC+) who provides defensive value at premium positions (55 SS, maybe 65 3B, 60 2B, ideally 50–60 CF, tho he’s untested). He’s a career .256/.348/.380 hitter in 139 PAs, with an *outstanding* 12.2% walk rate and a livable 24.5% K rate. Those rates stabilize VERY quickly (less than 100 PA), so we can probably expect roughly more of the same. If anything, just making adjustments and becoming a better hitter should keep the BB rate high but maybe drop the K rare closer to 20%.

He’s got 6 doubles, 3 triples, and one HR. So, 10 XBH in 139 PA, for an IsoP of 0.124. That’s a slap hitter, but it looks a LOT like Scooter Gennet’s early career...and Gennet has said himself that his HR breakout wasn’t a swing change, just old-fashioned experience. Same goes for Youk in his prime. I don’t think Lin ever hits 28 HR, but he might stumble into 10-20 range with experience and hitting the weights. Lin’s results are in variable part-time play, to start his career...most guys get BETTER with experience and regular time. So more to the point, if you extrapolate out over a full season (or 5x 139) suddenly he looks like a hitter who might hit you 35 doubles and 10 triples (yes, they’re rare, but with his LD style of hitting, OFs playing him in, his speed, and Fenway’s DEEP alleys, he’s exactly the guy to do it). Maybe he hits 5 HR. That’s still **50** XBH. Some modest experience/age-related improvement and he’s at or over 60, with maybe 35-40 2b and 10-15 HR. Substantial (ideal ceiling) and he might push 65-70 in his best 2-4 years. Keep that 12% walk rate and the BABIP (Gennett’s at .334 for his career), and you’ve got a pretty damn good hitter. Not GREAT, but quietly very good.

Gennett might actually be a better comp than Segura, (Gennett’s bulkier at 5’10” and 185 lbs.) He has a 9.4% career SwStr rate, similar to Lin, but Lin is *much* better at laying off pitches outside the zone...Gennett’s O-swing% is mid-30s, while Lin’s is an excellent 27%. Gennett walks much less but has a K rate about where one would hope Lin would end up, right around 20%. Lin would need to bulk up to have Gennett’s pop, but they’re fairly similar in distribution and quality: Gennett is 37/34/29 pull/C/oppo %s for his career (he’s pulled the ball more recently, coinciding with his power spike), with soft/Med/hard %s of 18/51/31. Again, his hard% has climbed significantly in his 4th-6th years. It’s a small sample, but Lin is at 35/42/23 for distribution (so he concentrates up the middle better), and 18/46/36 for quality. He has really good contact quality (over 40% hard-hit last year in a small sample) he’s just not a particularly strong guy. That can be remedied, to an extent.

All of which is to say that I think Lin is very underrated, almost entirely because 1) he was originally taught a terrible way to hit, and 2) he’s small. He’s fixed (1) basically completely. There are limits to (2), but I can think of several: a) weight training for strength, and (this is the key to Mookie’s, Altuve’s, Gennett’s, Pedroia’s, Albies’s, and really any small player’s power) b) *selectively* identifying and pitches you can drive. The corollary to that is c) pulling the ball selectively. What bodes well for Lin is that he has a very good eye: (b)/(c) is, in theory, very reasonably possible. As he becomes a more experienced hitter, he’ll barrel up more often and he’ll pick pitches he’s *more likely* to barrel up. To top it off, he’s in TGE organization to learn that, because that’s JDM’s whole deal, and the whole team is starting to buy in.

The $200M question is this: can Lin do it? Because if Tzu-Wei Lin can hit roughly like Segura, or better, Gennett, then he’s in .300/.360/.450 territory and as a good SS, that’s a 3-5 win player. That’s Bogey. Extrapolated over a full season SO FAR, Lin has been a league average player, worth 2.5 fWAR. That’s for a guy with irregular/limited time, making the jump from AA, and in his first MLB taste. He’s *probably* at least that going forward. He’s probably *more* likely to be better than worse. So if he’s a 3-WAR player making league minimum, and Bogey’s looking for an 8/$200 M deal...would you rather have Bogaerts, and say, Mike Shawaryn...or Lin, and Gerrit Cole?

First off.....WOW! I am seriously floored Telson13. Everything you have written in this thread I created is above and beyond. So thank you for the ridiculous amount of effort/thought put into your responses. If you aren't already you should be part of the SP team. On this site, most responses deserve due attention where everyone's opinion is valid, but I am certainly going to hold higher value in your responses from here on out (Same with Hatfield, Dunne, Cundall etc). When I had asked what you thought for a comparrison you could have told me Hideki Irabu and Izzy Alcantara, and I would have accepted it lol. Are you big into analytics and statistics? I would assume so where there is clearly advanced knowledge on the subject.

You have me a lot more excited about Lin than I ever thought possible. My guess would have been a 2-3 WAR player in prime that offers well above average defense. That is something I can live with, but the expectation was a solid bench player w/ versatility. I am starting to think he holds quite a bit more value than a player like Eduardo Nunez (hands down on D). Any Sox fan would love him to become even a Gennett/Segura lite, but you raised great points explaining the potential for muscle gains. He is so skinny at present it could only help him to gain a good 15-20 lbs muscle without any sacrifice somewhere else. Most players tend to get an evaluation that shows them moving off a particular position with any gains, but at the same time these are players that are borderline to heavy.

Bringing up the though regarding Bogey for 8/200 with Shawaryn vs Lin and Cole....This is a difficult question for me to answer. On one hand, Bogey is just barely hitting his prime. There is still the part of me saying untapped potential, but same time I think we may know what he is going to be. On the other hand....Gerritt Cole haha. I believe that if Lin can more than hold his own, we get Marco Hernandez back, and CJ Chatham waiting in the weeds this is a solid play. Even if we assume a very good 6 WAR from Bogey it shouldn't be all that hard to gain that back. Cole alone carries that value, and would still make up the difference (Bogey + whatever starter he replaces). Then any value from Lin is icing on the cake. The defense alone warrants strong consideration even if the hit tool doesn't pan out as expected (I think it will though). I know that Cole is an example only, but a pitcher if somewhat similar value would still work. We are both clearly big fans of hit tool, and rightfully so. A lot of people don't tend to care as much, but I see it as the #1 foundational piece for a player. Almost every other tool can be gained in one way or another after that. It's not like anyone projected someone like Altuve's power to be where it is, but the hit tool got him to where he is. 

One side note. We are all just making educated guesses at this point, as you know. This is highy unlikely (especially where Lin has MLB experience), but hopefully he doesn't turn into a Gavin Cecchini lol. He was one player that had similar evaluations hit tool wise, and never panned out. There are obviously differences and circumstances that make this an unwarranted comment, but a good reminder that we have to pump the brakes sometimes (Ahem....Durran lol). 

Some guesses for the season:

Who's up?

1. Tyler Esplin (ranked #45) – He got a little scouting love after his debut in 2017, but his performance in 2018 seemed to hush any excitement. Small samples aside, I’m seeing a guy who jumped up from the GCL to Lowell, increased his BB% (from 7.4% to 11.1%), decreased his K% (from 27.7% to 25.5%) and slightly increased his ISO (from .118 to .130). His triple slash line leaves something to be desired but if you adjust what I hope is a low BABIP for him (.287), it wouldn’t look terrible. On top of that, he was a young draftee in 2017 and fits into the same age range as our Casas, Decker, Howlett, and Northcut grouping. If he gets the call to Greenville (not a guarantee) and holds his own, I could see him reaching the 20s internally.

2. Aldo Ramirez (ranked #49) – This is a guy who won’t turn 18 until May, has FB velo north of 90mph, has good reports on his curveball and changeup, has pitched (albeit briefly) in the Mexican league, and only allowed 13 baserunners in 23 DSL innings last year. There probably isn’t a ton of upside here given a modest frame and likely limited projectability, but even a guy who looks more and more like a backend type will rise in the rankings. Think current Jhonathan Diaz in our system.

3. Zach Schellenger (ranked #25) – He’s already ranked pretty high so this might be a stretch. That said, if healthy, I think he can be one of the better relievers in our system (with high leverage reliever upside) and could rise to AA perhaps reaching the teens in our rankings if he looks dominant in doing so. Fingers crossed for his heath.

Who's down? I noticed nobody really made any guesses here. I get that we're all pretty optimistic this time of year, and I hope to be wrong about the following, but some words of caution regarding:

1. Danny Diaz (ranked #14) – The power is tremendous and by all accounts he is a good athlete for his size so he may be able to stick out 3b for a little while. That said, his approach #s (4.4% BB%, 23.9% K%) are not in the same ballpark as former international signees with buzz in the DSL (e.g., Bogaerts, Devers, Antoni Flores, Margot, etc.). That’s concerning to me and I wonder just how much he can adjust stateside. I’m obviously rooting for the kid but I wouldn’t consider jumping him up more than a level (to the GCL).

2. Josh Ockimey (ranked #17) – To be clear, I don’t think that Ockimey is necessarily overrated or that his performance will degrade this year. I just don’t think there is a regular spot for him in today’s MLB unless his game power ticks up. His ranking is already on a slight decline for this reason and I see it continuing while being passed up by younger players with upside we can dream on.

3. Josh Taylor (ranked #29) – I get that his power stuff is exciting, particularly from the left side, and the Sox themselves liked Taylor enough to protect him from the Rule 5 draft. But there always seems to be a guy with good stuff from the left side with pedestrian control/command and related statistics. Luis Ysla comes to mind. These guys rarely figure it out and with a plethora of relief options added to our AAA and AA levels, I don’t see Taylor reaching Boston in any meaningful role this year and I see his stock dropping a bit.

1.) feltman - got to see him live in Greenville and both his pitches are plus pitches with movement. I think he is in Boston real soon.

2.) Hernandez - as a reliever he looked good in Arizona last fall.

3.) lakins - the bullpen has been kind to him. Can he take the next step?

I think what you said about how you obtained the baseball knowledge is all the more impressive tbh. It shows someone that is capable of comprehending some fairly complex data. It's not difficult for every person here, but I would venture to say it is difficult for most. It is very easy to get overwhelmed I would say because of the sheer amount of analytics involved. A person like you (and the other guys we talked about) seems to make it look really easy when in reality it is not. Kind of like watching a really good hitter make hitting a fastball look easy I guess. So please keep it up! There are very few people on here that you can count on for a trustworthy and valuable opinion. I do love to see people's views/opinions, but that is very different than actually breaking down stats. 

When you had mentioned the hit tool example using Mookie it made me think a bit. I do not think that anyone sat there, and said we have a beast on our hands. He is one of the extraordinary examples of a player well exceeding even the most optimistic scouts data. That is not to say they didn't see a great hit tool either. Proving our point he carried a great hit tool, and slowly worked his way into power. This is what separates an mvp player from a utility. His bat speed is off the charts which helps him big time, but he just as easily could have limited his work to a peak year of 10 HR. I know that every person is different, but it always upsets me to see players take what the have for granted. If I was making millions I would not hesitate to keep weight off or hit the gym. There's too much to lose by not going. Anyways, I had always been curious how scouts pick out guys at a young age. Yes, there is an easy way to tell when a player is just "that much better" than anyone else who steps on the field, but still. I wonder if teams/scouts will make it a point to see the player's families? What I mean by this is would they base someones future potential (to add muscle), based on his immediate family. Genes are passed down so it is a way to tell if the player has potential to add bulk, or is his father's frame an indicator of future potential. I wouldn't have a clue how else they determine the "bulk" a player has the potential to add on in 5-10 years. When Chris does the scouting profile you will notice the physical description section will show frame maxed out, skinny at present etc..so maybe he can chime in. After college, I was offered a job as a scout, and stupidly turned it down. My territory would have been the Northeast, and at that point it was too limited (I thought so). I would have learned all of this, but didn't make the jump.

Very nice examples with Ozzie Smith, young simba, Buxton. Buxton of all people really baffled me. He had even more hype than Ronald Acuna, and hasn't done much so far. Same with Jurickson Profar. Profar was such a ridiculously high prospect, and Buxton was even higher. JP had one hell of a year last year so possibly starting to live up to his teenage hype. I believe Buxton is going to turn things around soon in a similar way if he can stay healthy. What I do not understand with him is how you go from a 75 hit tool to what he is now. When we are talking a guy projected at a 50 future, but ends up being a 40 then fine. Its going from a 75 to a 40 that just doesn't register in my head. With a player like Lin I could never see his hit tool dropping that dramatically, but you are absolutely dead on when you mentioned bench player vs regular. In reality that can make or break any player due to no consistency. We are lucky that Lin is a rare tyoe that will get it done when his numbers are called. I am really excited to watch Lin this year because we have been discussing him. I didn't know even 1/10th of what I do now thanks to you (regarding Lin). Truth be told I kind of dismissed him in the sense that I wouldnt pay attention to what he accomplished at the plate. Same goes for what he has made adjustment wise. A cross between Gennett and Segura would make me a very happy person lol. 

This is somewhat off topic, but on point at the same time. I wanted to get your opinion regarding last years draft. You and I are exactly the same when it comes to the hit tool. So that being said, were you a fan of the draft this year? We went to a power profile, which clearly means a sacrifice of hit tool. Personally, I absolutely loved the picks even though it got away from what I generally root for. I can't decide if this is because power is fun to watch, they have solid hit tools to go with the power, or if it was just something different after our minors got ravaged. Going through the guys they drafted you will see its a very unbalanced year with the HT vs Power profiles. The sox have a need in a few positions that tend to be power profile spots so maybe im excited to just have them filled internally. 

I definitely have the same concerns. In my response above this I had mentioned that he could possibly be pulling an i'm better than everyone else deal, or possibly doing what Chavis did in trying to bash every swing. I have always wondered about this though...Wouldn't, in theory, it be more difficult to hit in the the low minors? From T-Ball past college for me it always seemed to get easier as I went up the ranks. This was due to the fact that pitchers became more accurate as you go up. There was nothing worse for me than a pitcher that couldn't throw strikes because you can't expect it to be "around" the strike zone. I am sure it is some type of bell curve when it comes to difficulty, but I am also not even 50% sure on that one. Just observations from playing so many years. Basically I would think its very very difficult in DSL/GSL/LOW A where pitchers have no command or control. Then in the High A to AA it gets easier, but more velocity and sequencing. Then finally the AAA/Majors its back to very difficult because they can hit spots, electric stuff, and just be more surgical overall on top of the advanced arsenal. Just curious your thoughts on this?