SoxProspects News
|
|
|
|
Legal
Forum Ground Rules
The views expressed by the members of this Forum do not necessarily reflect the views of SoxProspects, LLC.
© 2003-2024 SoxProspects, LLC
|
|
|
|
|
Forum Home | Search | My Profile | Messages | Members | Help |
Welcome Guest. Please Login or Register.
Devers, Dalbec, and friends: 3B in MLB
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Feb 6, 2019 19:22:42 GMT -5
Dalbec is 6'4". Sounds like a 1b to me. Why is everyone so obsessed with what players are shaped like rather than what their skills are? Dalbec has a rocket for an arm. You're wasting a huge chunk of his value, just because he's tall? Amen. Moncada fills out a uniform better than anyone. It ain’t helping him hit a curveball or field a grounder.
|
|
|
Post by James Dunne on Feb 6, 2019 23:08:29 GMT -5
Why is everyone so obsessed with what players are shaped like rather than what their skills are? Dalbec has a rocket for an arm. You're wasting a huge chunk of his value, just because he's tall? Amen. Moncada fills out a uniform better than anyone. It ain’t helping him hit a curveball or field a grounder. That's true in the abstract, but Moncada murders curveballs. Righthanders should probably never throw him one.
|
|
|
Post by sparkygian on Feb 6, 2019 23:33:26 GMT -5
Amen. Moncada fills out a uniform better than anyone. It ain’t helping him hit a curveball or field a grounder. That's true in the abstract, but Moncada murders curveballs. Righthanders should probably never throw him one. ?? Does he really murder curveballs when batting left-handed?
|
|
|
Post by fenwaythehardway on Feb 7, 2019 11:14:52 GMT -5
That's true in the abstract, but Moncada murders curveballs. Righthanders should probably never throw him one. ?? Does he really murder curveballs when batting left-handed? I don't know how it breaks down by handedness but he's at .217/.253/.398 overall against curveballs in his major league career per Fangraphs. That's not quite as bad as it looks because pitchers tend to throw curveballs in two-strike counts, but still, he looks like much more of a fastball hitter to me.
|
|
|
Post by James Dunne on Feb 7, 2019 11:49:13 GMT -5
?? Does he really murder curveballs when batting left-handed? I don't know how it breaks down by handedness but he's at .217/.253/.398 overall against curveballs in his major league career per Fangraphs. That's not quite as bad as it looks because pitchers tend to throw curveballs in two-strike counts, but still, he looks like much more of a fastball hitter to me. So that didn't square with when I'd watched him (which doesn't make it wrong, I was just surprised): it looks like there was a huge discrepancy between handling curves depending on which side of the plate he was hitting from. As a LHB, he had a 62% contact rate against curves, with a LD rate on contact of 34.78%, and a FB rate 26%. As a RHB, it was a 52% contact rate, 9% LD rate, and 27% FB rate. So as a righty he was missing curveballs, and then rolling over them when he didn't. He was also really good at laying off from the left side: 50% of the curves thrown to him by righties were taken for balls.
|
|
|
Post by pedrofanforever45 on Apr 20, 2019 8:15:49 GMT -5
Also, Devers has had a UZR of -4.6 and -4.5 at third base in 2017 and 2018. He might be better than Chavis, I have no clue, but that doesn't mean he's got good range. He doesn't. False narrative. He's been a bad 3rd baseman in MLB so far. Holt saw a eye doctor recently. He doesn't even sound close at the moment. So Chavis if he pushes, could force the situation for other people in the roster to be moved but himself moving forward. Maybe you should look at the stat that matters, UZR/150 which is a rate rather than counting stat. Certainly looks like improvement, especially for a freaking 22 year old who should be in AA if he wasn't the hitter he is. Okay, don't like the UZR stat, fine. Let's use the UZR/150 stat. Devers was still below average there at -5.2 at at UZR/150 in over a thousand innings this year. Saying you believe in a improvement in over 100 innings so far is almost like you're telling the whole board you believe Vazquez is a power hitter because he has 4 homeruns through 20 games now. I'm certainly not going to put much stock into it, especially considering his year last year. I've heard the Adrian Beltre comps on defense when it comes to Devers. Well, go check out Beltre's UZR stats in his early 20's. This is the one stat where Devers is supposed to excel at right now, because he'll never have more range in his career than he does right now. The UZR/150, and UZR stats just shows the balls you can get to. Not anything else instinct or defensively wise. Devers compares more to Nick Castellanos when he was younger. Nick Castellanos posted ironically posted the SAME -11 UZR/150 in his first year and -5 UZR/150 (in his second year) at the age of 21 and 22. Nick Castellanos doesn't play 3B anymore. I'm not saying I hate Devers, I'm just saying he probably needs a position switch to first base. All of those negative range numbers are fine at first base. I bet he even cuts down on the errors because he'll be throwing the ball less (which is a problem for him at times). I also think he can excel at first base because he can pick balls out pretty good at third base and I'd like to see him do it picking out other fielders throws at first base. Out of respect to the forum, I moved this conversation here because Michael Chavis thread doesn't need talk about Devers' defense.
|
|
|
Post by jimed14 on Apr 20, 2019 8:21:54 GMT -5
Maybe you should look at the stat that matters, UZR/150 which is a rate rather than counting stat. Certainly looks like improvement, especially for a freaking 22 year old who should be in AA if he wasn't the hitter he is. Okay, don't like the UZR stat, fine. Let's use the UZR/150 stat. Devers was still below average there at -5.2 at at UZR/150 in over a thousand innings this year. Saying you believe in a improvement in over 100 innings so far is almost like you're telling the whole board you believe Vazquez is a power hitter because he has 4 homeruns through 20 games now. I'm certainly not going to put much stock into it, especially considering his year last year. I've heard the Adrian Beltre comps on defense when it comes to Devers. Well, go check out Beltre's UZR stats in his early 20's. This is the one stat where Devers is supposed to excel at right now, because he'll never have more range in his career than he does right now. The UZR/150, and UZR stats just shows the balls you can get to. Not anything else instinct wise. Devers compares more to Nick Castellanos when he was younger. Nick Castellanos posted ironically posted the SAME -11 UZR/150 in his first year and -5 UZR/150 at the age of 21 and 22. Nick Castellanos doesn't play 3B anymore. I'm not saying I hate Devers, I'm just saying he probably needs a position switch to first base. All of those negative range numbers are fine at first base. I bet he even cuts down on the errors because he'll be throwing the ball less (which is a problem for him at times). Out of respect to the forum, I moved this conversation here because Michael Chavis thread doesn't need talk about Devers' defense. I believe in the improvement from 2017 to 2018. He's still just 22 and still improving. It seems that you ignore the great plays that he makes that others like Chavis would not even be able to reach while focusing only on the errors.
|
|
|
Post by pedrofanforever45 on Apr 20, 2019 8:27:16 GMT -5
I think this will be the last year of Devers' defensively at third base until he's proven that the improvement is real over a full season's worth of innings. He's already at 3 errors and -2 DRS for the year, even with the slight improvement of range (at the moment). That doesn't make me too optimistic for the future. Call it the pessimist in me, but I don't see it. If Dalbec doesn't develop a hit tool good enough to play in the majors, then maybe CJ Catham will get the switch and play 3B a lot in the future for Sox. Umass said it best- Devers 191 games at 3B -15 DRS, 43 errors, .923 field %, league average is.957 %, range factor per 9 2.66, league average 2.64. That is well below average, not slightly below. Also his range numbers haven't been good, yet they are up this year in a very small sample size. That's a bad defender at third base. Sorry, I love Devers, but it just is.
|
|
|
Post by jimed14 on Apr 20, 2019 8:28:35 GMT -5
And he's still 22 with no room for improvement right. Bring on the older 3rd basemen from the minors who have had more years to develop.
If Devers were in AA with other players his age, you wouldn't even worry whatsoever about his defense. Meanwhile, you haven't even seen Dalbec play defense I bet which is why you don't worry about it. He had 20 errors last year in far fewer innings and is 2 years older.
|
|
|
Post by pedrofanforever45 on Apr 20, 2019 8:38:13 GMT -5
Okay, don't like the UZR stat, fine. Let's use the UZR/150 stat. Devers was still below average there at -5.2 at at UZR/150 in over a thousand innings this year. Saying you believe in a improvement in over 100 innings so far is almost like you're telling the whole board you believe Vazquez is a power hitter because he has 4 homeruns through 20 games now. I'm certainly not going to put much stock into it, especially considering his year last year. I've heard the Adrian Beltre comps on defense when it comes to Devers. Well, go check out Beltre's UZR stats in his early 20's. This is the one stat where Devers is supposed to excel at right now, because he'll never have more range in his career than he does right now. The UZR/150, and UZR stats just shows the balls you can get to. Not anything else instinct wise. Devers compares more to Nick Castellanos when he was younger. Nick Castellanos posted ironically posted the SAME -11 UZR/150 in his first year and -5 UZR/150 at the age of 21 and 22. Nick Castellanos doesn't play 3B anymore. I'm not saying I hate Devers, I'm just saying he probably needs a position switch to first base. All of those negative range numbers are fine at first base. I bet he even cuts down on the errors because he'll be throwing the ball less (which is a problem for him at times). Out of respect to the forum, I moved this conversation here because Michael Chavis thread doesn't need talk about Devers' defense. I believe in the improvement from 2017 to 2018. He's still just 22 and still improving. It seems that you ignore the great plays that he makes that others like Chavis would not even be able to reach while focusing only on the errors. Improvement? What improvement? Are we talking about him going from a bad defender to below average defender? Nothing has pointed to him being above average in anything defensively besides some small sample noise range factors right now in 2019. He had a improvement in 2017 to 2018 of -11 UZR/150 in 500 innings his first year, with a -1 DRS. He had 14 errors his first year also. Then, he went to a -5.2 UZR/150 and a -13 DRS. He had 24 errors last year. He actually had more range last year (versus 2017) and was worse defensively (overall).
|
|
|
Post by pedrofanforever45 on Apr 20, 2019 8:42:46 GMT -5
And he's still 22 with no room for improvement right. Bring on the older 3rd basemen from the minors who have had more years to develop. If Devers were in AA with other players his age, you wouldn't even worry whatsoever about his defense. Meanwhile, you haven't even seen Dalbec play defense I bet which is why you don't worry about it. He had 20 errors last year in far fewer innings and is 2 years older. If Dalbec can't get it done defensively, then I don't want him there. Hey if Catham is better, then let him take the job or go make a trade for one of the many good 3rd baseman in the league right now. All reports are saying that Dalbec has a better arm and better range. That's why I want him there.
|
|
|
Post by jimed14 on Apr 20, 2019 8:45:58 GMT -5
I believe in the improvement from 2017 to 2018. He's still just 22 and still improving. It seems that you ignore the great plays that he makes that others like Chavis would not even be able to reach while focusing only on the errors. Improvement? What improvement? Are we talking about him going from a bad defender to below average defender? Nothing has pointed to him being above average in anything defensively besides some small sample noise range factors right now in 2019. He had a improvement in 2017 to 2019 of -11 UZR/150 in 500 innings his first year, with a -1 DRS. He had 14 errors his first year also. Then, he went to a -5.2 UZR/150 and a -13 DRS. He had 24 errors last year. He actually had more range last year (versus 2017) and was worse defensively (overall). Yes he has gotten better as shown by stats. He's 22 and still improving, like every single young player ever.
|
|
|
Post by jimed14 on Apr 20, 2019 8:48:06 GMT -5
And he's still 22 with no room for improvement right. Bring on the older 3rd basemen from the minors who have had more years to develop. If Devers were in AA with other players his age, you wouldn't even worry whatsoever about his defense. Meanwhile, you haven't even seen Dalbec play defense I bet which is why you don't worry about it. He had 20 errors last year in far fewer innings and is 2 years older. If Dalbec can't get it done defensively, then I don't want him there. Hey if Catham is better, then let him take the job or go make a trade for one of the many good 3rd baseman in the league right now. All reports are saying that Dalbec has a better arm and better range. That's why I want him there. You want Dalbec there until you see him make an error. He's almost two years older than Devers and made 4 fewer errors in about 100 fewer innings last season. Lets see how Devers does when he's Dalbec's age.
|
|
|
Post by pedrofanforever45 on Apr 20, 2019 8:50:40 GMT -5
Improvement? What improvement? Are we talking about him going from a bad defender to below average defender? Nothing has pointed to him being above average in anything defensively besides some small sample noise range factors right now in 2019. He had a improvement in 2017 to 2019 of -11 UZR/150 in 500 innings his first year, with a -1 DRS. He had 14 errors his first year also. Then, he went to a -5.2 UZR/150 and a -13 DRS. He had 24 errors last year. He actually had more range last year (versus 2017) and was worse defensively (overall). Yes he has gotten better as shown by stats. He's 22 and still improving, like every single young player ever. No, he has gotten better while getting worse in other areas. His "improvements" are still way below league average to show he's not a good 3rd baseman in the MLB. Beltre had a UZR/150 of over 20 at the age of 22 and he had defensive issues at that age. That's actually something you can work with there. He made 20 errors his first year, but he actually showed he was capable of handling the position well. At least all signs pointed that way.
|
|
|
Post by jimed14 on Apr 20, 2019 8:52:53 GMT -5
Yes he has gotten better as shown by stats. He's 22 and still improving, like every single young player ever. No, he has gotten better while getting worse in other areas. His "improvements" are still way below league average to show he's not a good 3rd baseman in the MLB. Beltre had a UZR/150 of over 20 at the age of 22 and he had defensive issues at that age. That's actually something you can work with there. He made 20 errors his first year, but he actually showed he was capable of handling the position well. At least all signs pointed that way. Define getting better while getting worse. We're only talking fielding here so please don't move the goalposts. His improvements are showing a trend of getting better. Just keep waiting until no more improvements are made. I'd wait until he's at least Dalbec's age.
|
|
|
Post by pedrofanforever45 on Apr 20, 2019 8:56:19 GMT -5
If Dalbec can't get it done defensively, then I don't want him there. Hey if Catham is better, then let him take the job or go make a trade for one of the many good 3rd baseman in the league right now. All reports are saying that Dalbec has a better arm and better range. That's why I want him there. You want Dalbec there until you see him make an error. He's almost two years older than Devers and made 4 fewer errors in about 100 fewer innings last season. Lets see how Devers does when he's Dalbec's age. I hope he's at first base when he's Dalbec's age. I don't care if it's Dalbec or Catham or player X that we don't know about in the future. Defense has been legitimately some of the reasons why this team can't pitch well right now. The infield defense between Nunez and Devers wasn't helping, they were hurting them. They will continue to hurt them I suspect because neither can play 2B or 3B all that well.
|
|
|
Post by pedrofanforever45 on Apr 20, 2019 8:59:25 GMT -5
No, he has gotten better while getting worse in other areas. His "improvements" are still way below league average to show he's not a good 3rd baseman in the MLB. Beltre had a UZR/150 of over 20 at the age of 22 and he had defensive issues at that age. That's actually something you can work with there. He made 20 errors his first year, but he actually showed he was capable of handling the position well. At least all signs pointed that way. Define getting better while getting worse. We're only talking fielding here so please don't move the goalposts. His improvements are showing a trend of getting better. Just keep waiting until no more improvements are made. I'd wait until he's at least Dalbec's age. I just did that a post ago- "He had a improvement in 2017 to 2018 of -11 UZR/150 in 500 innings his first year, with a -1 DRS. He had 14 errors his first year also. Then, he went to a -5.2 UZR/150 and a -13 DRS. He had 24 errors last year. He actually had more range last year (versus 2017) and was worse defensively (overall)." Summary- 2017- less mistakes, less range. 2018- more mistakes, more range. Add summary number 2- All of his improvements still showed he was a bad defender at third base regardless.
|
|
|
Post by jimed14 on Apr 20, 2019 9:33:56 GMT -5
You're comparing counting stats with rate stats. He played twice as many innings in 2018 than in 2017. So he made more mistakes because he played twice as much.
|
|
|
Post by pedrofanforever45 on Apr 20, 2019 9:44:06 GMT -5
You're comparing counting stats with rate stats. He played twice as many innings in 2018 than in 2017. So he made more mistakes because he played twice as much. Okay, you win. He went from a pace of making 28+ errors (in a full season) in 2017 to 24 errors in 2018. He also had WAY worse DRS numbers in 2018 (in twice as many innings), but hey whatever. Still all bad at the position. No positives. He has -3 DRS with 6 errors already in 2019. It's not getting better. The mistakes are still happening at a really bad pace. He's showing that he's a consistently bad defender though, no matter how much his UZR/150 and range goes up and down.
|
|
|
Post by jerrygarciaparra on Apr 20, 2019 9:57:08 GMT -5
I tend to side with Jim on this. Some of this same conversation happened was with X also. I also wonder whether his hitting struggles are hurting his fielding.
It is just too early to think of other solutions. They have spent the time developing him and he isn't a finished product at this point. If his bat plays as expected, all they need is league average D and we are talking a 3-4 win player, no ?
BTW...his walk and strikeouts rates are fine....I expect him to start mashing at some point this year.
|
|
|
Post by pedrofanforever45 on Apr 20, 2019 10:19:23 GMT -5
I tend to side with Jim on this. Some of this same conversation happened was with X also. I also wonder whether his hitting struggles are hurting his fielding. It is just too early to think of other solutions. They have spent the time developing him and he isn't a finished product at this point. If his bat plays as expected, all they need is league average D and we are talking a 3-4 win player, no ? BTW...his walk and strikeouts rates are fine....I expect him to start mashing at some point this year. Yeah strictly a defensive conversation here. I think the kid is going to eventually mash too. So what if he moves to first base? He's still got a great future here regardless. This is worse than a Xander conversation imo. Xander can at least show he's capable. He makes way less errors, his range isn't great, but Xander's bat does actually live up to the value is giving them at short stop. Devers has been way worse than Xander defensively, even when Xander was really young, he wasn't this bad.
|
|
|
Post by pedrofanforever45 on Apr 20, 2019 17:08:13 GMT -5
Pedrioa working with Devers on the defensive side of the ball.
|
|
|
Post by iakovos11 on Apr 30, 2019 6:15:27 GMT -5
|
|
|
Post by The Town Sports Cards on Apr 30, 2019 7:52:06 GMT -5
*Micheal Scott THANK YOU gif
|
|
|
Post by philsbosoxfan on May 12, 2019 23:44:58 GMT -5
|
|
|