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Devers, Dalbec, and friends: 3B in MLB
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Aug 20, 2019 8:31:57 GMT -5
That's basically my point though. Bobby Dalbec is generally a mid 90's ranked prospect. If he was a first baseman only, I doubt if he'd be in anyone's top 200. I don't disagree with what you're saying and have generally been on that bandwagon. The one problem is that as everyone else gets more expensive, the Red Sox will need league minimum players. Trading Dalbec for a 1B that costs money might not work, and prospect-for-prospect trades are rare. If there's a chance that Dalbec the first baseman will give you the same production at 1B that a theoretical "prospect 1B" would give you there, while also serving as the backup 3B, then it's not necessarily horribly wasteful. And for what it's worth, we've gotten reports and Ian's reported firsthand that Dalbec's 3B defense has backed up a bit this year. Doesn't mean he couldn't work on it, but it's probably more likely he'd become an inferior defensive 3B to Devers than a better one at this point (that statement made in part acknowledging that Devers is probably a 55 over there, so not necessarily a knock on Dalbec). It's kind of funny, but the decision point there probably has more to do with Mookie Betts than anyone else. The other hand says that if we could find a reasonably priced left handed hitting first baseman, Chavis or Travis would be of more value and the money of said first baseman plus Travis/Chavis would be less than Moreland/Dalbec. By eating a little salary, we should be able to find a better first baseman and still come out ahead because of Moreland's $7m. With Holt, Chavis, Hernandez & Lin, barring an unexpected injury to Devers, I really don't see a need to worry about a 3B backup for the few games Devers is likely to miss.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Aug 20, 2019 9:07:45 GMT -5
ZIPS Projects Dalbec to strike out 40 percent of the time, all the time. Hitting less than .200 most of the time. An OPS of under .700 all the time. They project that the next 3 years with Dalbec. The equals out to a half win player. Add another half for defense maybe and that's a 1 win player at first base the next 3 years. The Sox can and should do a lot better than this. It's one thing if he's adding another win on defense at third base, but he has no chance at first base. Trade him while he's a top 100 prospect.
Add- I'm not a big Michael Chavis fan, but ZIPS projects even him to be a full win better than Dalbec the next 3 years. Ah, the classic "this guys sucks, trade him while he has value" gambit.
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Post by mandelbro on Aug 20, 2019 9:18:10 GMT -5
That's basically my point though. Bobby Dalbec is generally a mid 90's ranked prospect. If he was a first baseman only, I doubt if he'd be in anyone's top 200. I don't disagree with what you're saying and have generally been on that bandwagon. The one problem is that as everyone else gets more expensive, the Red Sox will need league minimum players. Trading Dalbec for a 1B that costs money might not work, and prospect-for-prospect trades are rare. If there's a chance that Dalbec the first baseman will give you the same production at 1B that a theoretical "prospect 1B" would give you there, while also serving as the backup 3B, then it's not necessarily horribly wasteful. And for what it's worth, we've gotten reports and Ian's reported firsthand that Dalbec's 3B defense has backed up a bit this year. Doesn't mean he couldn't work on it, but it's probably more likely he'd become an inferior defensive 3B to Devers than a better one at this point (that statement made in part acknowledging that Devers is probably a 55 over there, so not necessarily a knock on Dalbec). It's kind of funny, but the decision point there probably has more to do with Mookie Betts than anyone else. I know you guys generally don't like to entertain talk about drastic position changes. But could Dalbec's tools play as a bat-first corner OF? As a former pitcher and 3B with a plus-plus arm I'd assume he has the arm. Does he have enough long speed to survive in a LF like Fenway? Or is he just too slow?
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Aug 20, 2019 14:39:51 GMT -5
ZIPS Projects Dalbec to strike out 40 percent of the time, all the time. Hitting less than .200 most of the time. An OPS of under .700 all the time. They project that the next 3 years with Dalbec. The equals out to a half win player. Add another half for defense maybe and that's a 1 win player at first base the next 3 years. The Sox can and should do a lot better than this. It's one thing if he's adding another win on defense at third base, but he has no chance at first base. Trade him while he's a top 100 prospect.
Add- I'm not a big Michael Chavis fan, but ZIPS projects even him to be a full win better than Dalbec the next 3 years. Ah, the classic "this guys sucks, trade him while he has value" gambit. Would you rather wait until he does stink and he has no value with the Boston Red Sox?
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Post by jimed14 on Aug 20, 2019 15:12:56 GMT -5
Ah, the classic "this guys sucks, trade him while he has value" gambit. Would you rather wait until he does stink and he has no value with the Boston Red Sox? It's more along the lines of making fun of the "every baseball GM is way dumber than you are" assumption.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Aug 20, 2019 15:17:56 GMT -5
Would you rather wait until he does stink and he has no value with the Boston Red Sox? It's more along the lines of making fun of the "every baseball GM is way dumber than you are" assumption. Not dumb, Dalbec's value is at third base. He'd be worth something to someone if he keeps playing third base in the minor leagues. He has zero value playing first base for the Sox. He's worth more somewhere else.
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Post by jimed14 on Aug 20, 2019 15:19:49 GMT -5
It's more along the lines of making fun of the "every baseball GM is way dumber than you are" assumption. Not dumb, Dalbec's value is at third base. He'd be worth something to someone if he keeps playing third base in the minor leagues. He has zero value playing first base for the Sox. He's worth more somewhere else. Yeah, that was the point you were making when talking about ZiPS, and his projected OPS and WAR.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Aug 20, 2019 15:42:52 GMT -5
It's more along the lines of making fun of the "every baseball GM is way dumber than you are" assumption. Not dumb, Dalbec's value is at third base. He'd be worth something to someone if he keeps playing third base in the minor leagues. He has zero value playing first base for the Sox. He's worth more somewhere else. Everyone's just going to forget that he can play third? Consider that everyone in baseball is looking at the same stuff you're looking at.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Aug 20, 2019 16:28:39 GMT -5
Not dumb, Dalbec's value is at third base. He'd be worth something to someone if he keeps playing third base in the minor leagues. He has zero value playing first base for the Sox. He's worth more somewhere else. Everyone's just going to forget that he can play third? Consider that everyone in baseball is looking at the same stuff you're looking at. Getting less reps at a position when you're being used primarily at another position, hurts or helps value? Ask Swihart this question.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Aug 20, 2019 18:36:25 GMT -5
That's the reddest of herrings. This isn't about some theoretical trajectory tor Dalbec, it's about what he's worth right now. Please stay on task.
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Post by coachmac on Aug 20, 2019 18:49:10 GMT -5
Everyone's just going to forget that he can play third? Consider that everyone in baseball is looking at the same stuff you're looking at. Getting less reps at a position when you're being used primarily at another position, hurts or helps value? Ask Swihart this question. In today's baseball with shorter benches, increasing a player's versatility actually adds value.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Aug 20, 2019 18:50:20 GMT -5
Everyone's just going to forget that he can play third? Consider that everyone in baseball is looking at the same stuff you're looking at. Getting less reps at a position when you're being used primarily at another position, hurts or helps value? Ask Swihart this question. Playing catcher is a completely different thing and you know it.
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Post by James Dunne on Aug 20, 2019 19:02:28 GMT -5
Also, that would be the equivalent of making Bobby Dalbec a backup first basemen and giving him like 14 plate appearances a month when there was a third-base platoon hitting like .180/.280/.315. If the Red Sox had tried to make Blake Swihart an outfielder because they had JT Realmuto in the way, then I'd have had no problem with it, even if it turned out the way it did.
Anyway, there is a good chance that trading Dalbec is a better use of his value than putting him at first base. The Red Sox pitching seems like a harder-to-fill need than first base and may need to package prospects to do that, and Bobby Dalbec might be in the wheelhouse for such a move. But having him play first base isn't some numbskull waste of on opportunity to sell high on a player who stinks, and if they can't get good value for him then they should just keep him and play him. I'm fairly skeptical of him being, like, this middle-of-the-order stud, but I think he could end up Khris Davis on the cheap. Which is pretty useful, especially when there isn't another option around.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Aug 20, 2019 19:23:55 GMT -5
Anyway, there is a good chance that trading Dalbec is a better use of his value than putting him at first base. The Red Sox pitching seems like a harder-to-fill need than first base and may need to package prospects to do that, and Bobby Dalbec might be in the wheelhouse for such a move. But having him play first base isn't some numbskull waste of on opportunity to sell high on a player who stinks, and if they can't get good value for him then they should just keep him and play him. I'm fairly skeptical of him being, like, this middle-of-the-order stud, but I think he could end up Khris Davis on the cheap. Which is pretty useful, especially when there isn't another option around. Dalbec is a hard guy to evaluate which makes it hard to make any sort of definitive statement on whether or not to trade him, but my feeling is that he's not the kind of prospect a lot of organizations are going to want to trade into, particularly because of his age and his contact issues. I think the Red Sox could probably get a team to pay for the projections, but probably not get one to pay for the upside. Given that he fills a position of need, they'll probably keep that upside for themselves.
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Post by James Dunne on Aug 20, 2019 22:26:53 GMT -5
I agree, in that he's probably not netting a starter straight-up and he's too good to trade for a short reliever. If he gets dealt I'd guess that it's part of a larger trade.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Aug 21, 2019 4:17:24 GMT -5
I'm all for giving Nick Castellanos a first base glove and pay him 60 plus million dollars for 4 years to learn the position. He's a crappy outfielder and needs to be moved off of there anyways. He used to play the infield at third base. Really good hitter, and will be a underrated bat in the off-season. He's been pretty much a dead pull hitter, and would be a great bat for Fenway as a RHB.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Aug 21, 2019 9:12:04 GMT -5
I don't disagree with what you're saying and have generally been on that bandwagon. The one problem is that as everyone else gets more expensive, the Red Sox will need league minimum players. Trading Dalbec for a 1B that costs money might not work, and prospect-for-prospect trades are rare. If there's a chance that Dalbec the first baseman will give you the same production at 1B that a theoretical "prospect 1B" would give you there, while also serving as the backup 3B, then it's not necessarily horribly wasteful. And for what it's worth, we've gotten reports and Ian's reported firsthand that Dalbec's 3B defense has backed up a bit this year. Doesn't mean he couldn't work on it, but it's probably more likely he'd become an inferior defensive 3B to Devers than a better one at this point (that statement made in part acknowledging that Devers is probably a 55 over there, so not necessarily a knock on Dalbec). It's kind of funny, but the decision point there probably has more to do with Mookie Betts than anyone else. The other hand says that if we could find a reasonably priced left handed hitting first baseman, Chavis or Travis would be of more value and the money of said first baseman plus Travis/Chavis would be less than Moreland/Dalbec. By eating a little salary, we should be able to find a better first baseman and still come out ahead because of Moreland's $7m. With Holt, Chavis, Hernandez & Lin, barring an unexpected injury to Devers, I really don't see a need to worry about a 3B backup for the few games Devers is likely to miss. I'm assuming both Moreland and Pearce are gone, is my point. I also don't see Dalbec being in a platoon at 1B. Dalbec at 1B is cheaper than Dalbec plus someone else.
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Post by brendan98 on Aug 21, 2019 11:54:35 GMT -5
Is there anything going on in AAA that has led to the high batting avg for Dalbec, or should it be chalked up to small sample?
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Aug 21, 2019 13:01:37 GMT -5
Is there anything going on in AAA that has led to the high batting avg for Dalbec, or should it be chalked up to small sample? An 0-4 tonight would drop his batting average 22 points. 16 games does not a sample size make, friend.
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Post by caseytins on Aug 21, 2019 16:59:38 GMT -5
Is there anything going on in AAA that has led to the high batting avg for Dalbec, or should it be chalked up to small sample? Small sample and perhaps smaller baseballs.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Aug 21, 2019 17:38:28 GMT -5
Is there anything going on in AAA that has led to the high batting avg for Dalbec, or should it be chalked up to small sample? Small sample and perhaps smaller baseballs. I've been thinking the same thing with his hot start. The AAA/MLB baseballs which travel further in the air should benefit a batter who had a 48% FB% in AA. As long as he keeps hitting them in the air, good things can happen. So far is LD% is way up, but I'm assuming that's SSS.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Aug 21, 2019 21:51:45 GMT -5
Does Sam Travis’s recent surge have anyone intrigued? DD has mentioned he is fully healthy for the first time in a long time. Maybe the power from within is finally being unlocked. What about Ockimey who is younger than Dalbec? In addition to them all being able to play 1B, they each offer something a little different. Dalbec can play 3B, Chavis 2B, Travis has played a little OF, and Ockimey is the only lefty out of the group. I’m not opposed to keeping all 4 for now especially with Martinez’s future uncertain. Let them fight it out for playing time. I’d hate to do another Travis Shaw type trade to come back to bite us (although he is down and out now). It will be interesting to see if anything happens to this group in the offseason. Win or lose, the two players I most want to see the Sox get a long look at are Sam Travis and Marco Hernandez.
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Post by jimed14 on Aug 21, 2019 21:54:05 GMT -5
Does Sam Travis’s recent surge have anyone intrigued? DD has mentioned he is fully healthy for the first time in a long time. Maybe the power from within is finally being unlocked. What about Ockimey who is younger than Dalbec? In addition to them all being able to play 1B, they each offer something a little different. Dalbec can play 3B, Chavis 2B, Travis has played a little OF, and Ockimey is the only lefty out of the group. I’m not opposed to keeping all 4 for now especially with Martinez’s future uncertain. Let them fight it out for playing time. I’d hate to do another Travis Shaw type trade to come back to bite us (although he is down and out now). It will be interesting to see if anything happens to this group in the offseason. Win or lose, the two players I most want to see the Sox get a long look at are Sam Travis and Marco Hernandez. Hernandez did take another walk tonight so I'm slightly more interested. He's up to 2 on the season in 84 PAs.
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Post by soxfansince67 on Aug 22, 2019 21:37:44 GMT -5
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Post by jimed14 on Aug 22, 2019 21:45:25 GMT -5
A good graphic from the above article. JBJ really is such a tease. Every pitcher already dares him to hit the other way in every at bat.
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