SoxProspects News
|
|
|
|
Legal
Forum Ground Rules
The views expressed by the members of this Forum do not necessarily reflect the views of SoxProspects, LLC.
© 2003-2024 SoxProspects, LLC
|
|
|
|
|
Forum Home | Search | My Profile | Messages | Members | Help |
Welcome Guest. Please Login or Register.
Devers, Dalbec, and friends: 3B in MLB
|
Post by kingstephanos on Aug 22, 2019 23:04:53 GMT -5
A good graphic from the above article. JBJ really is such a tease. Every pitcher already dares him to hit the other way in every at bat. Seeing JBJ in that list led to an honest to God 'jaw drop'.
|
|
|
Post by James Dunne on Aug 23, 2019 6:04:01 GMT -5
He has like a 230-foot gap there whenever he wants to use it.
|
|
|
Post by soxfansince67 on Aug 23, 2019 8:39:01 GMT -5
There seems to be an amazing stubborn streak in JBJ in terms of him getting pull happy for that odd HR among the Ks vs his success going the other way. It's lasted a long time.
|
|
|
Post by voiceofreason on Aug 24, 2019 8:25:59 GMT -5
That is very telling in regards to JBJ.
The allure of following the Sox system and the team is kind of like golf. That one great shot that keeps you going in hopes of repeating success and lower scores. That is Devers right now, a prospect that reaches the very top. And he might be just touching his ceiling, wow. That is like a hole in one.
Then their is lasts years 118 win season.
Mookie too and Xander this year finally reaching the level many of us have been hoping for. Sox might be struggling but they are still fun to follow, I'm not griping.
|
|
|
Post by sarasoxer on Aug 24, 2019 8:56:25 GMT -5
There seems to be an amazing stubborn streak in JBJ in terms of him getting pull happy for that odd HR among the Ks vs his success going the other way. It's lasted a long time. Yup. Way back I had mentioned that Luis Tiant had a conversation with Bradley about this and came away shaking his head at JBJ's being "stubborn".
|
|
|
Post by philsbosoxfan on Aug 24, 2019 9:05:17 GMT -5
Prediction. Next year, his contract year, he suddenly discovers left field.
|
|
|
Post by incandenza on Aug 24, 2019 11:13:54 GMT -5
Can someone substantiate this beyond an anecdote passed on by Luis Tiant? Why do we think he's not trying to go to the opposite field? The fact that he's so obviously better when he does so makes me think it's more that he can't (for long stretches, for whatever reason) than that he won't.
Like, if he's really just refusing to try to go opposite field, it would be malpractice for Cora not to bench him until he did.
|
|
|
Post by fenwaythehardway on Aug 24, 2019 21:34:36 GMT -5
Prediction. Next year, his contract year, he suddenly discovers left field. I dare you to make less sense.
|
|
|
Post by philsbosoxfan on Aug 24, 2019 22:19:42 GMT -5
Can someone substantiate this beyond an anecdote passed on by Luis Tiant? Why do we think he's not trying to go to the opposite field? The fact that he's so obviously better when he does so makes me think it's more that he can't (for long stretches, for whatever reason) than that he won't. Like, if he's really just refusing to try to go opposite field, it would be malpractice for Cora not to bench him until he did. baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/jackie-bradley-jr-598265?stats=career-r-visuals-mlbLook at the spray chart for all balls in play. 56% to the right side, 17% to the left in 2019.
|
|
|
Post by incandenza on Aug 25, 2019 15:01:06 GMT -5
Can someone substantiate this beyond an anecdote passed on by Luis Tiant? Why do we think he's not trying to go to the opposite field? The fact that he's so obviously better when he does so makes me think it's more that he can't (for long stretches, for whatever reason) than that he won't. Like, if he's really just refusing to try to go opposite field, it would be malpractice for Cora not to bench him until he did. baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/jackie-bradley-jr-598265?stats=career-r-visuals-mlbLook at the spray chart for all balls in play. 56% to the right side, 17% to the left in 2019. Sure, I know what he's been doing. But that doesn't show what's he been trying to do.
|
|
|
Post by voiceofreason on Oct 7, 2019 9:50:58 GMT -5
Considering Rafy just had an historic season for a third basemen what do people think about his future. Will that be a precursor of things to come or was that a career year?
|
|
|
Post by bdub on Oct 7, 2019 10:12:02 GMT -5
I could see RD moving to the OF, if Dalbec sticks. Dalbec is a very capable 3b.
|
|
|
Post by James Dunne on Oct 7, 2019 10:18:18 GMT -5
Let me start off by saying I don't think it's fair to assume he'll ever have a season better than that. (That will be as negative as this post gets)
However! There is a subset of offensive players whose skills would be more apparent with the de-juicing of the ball. Some of those players are the obvious ones: speed/contact/defense unicorns that don't really exist anymore and really might not exist again because the changes in baseball are more structural than just the baseball carrying too far. But the other category of players absolutely does exist: line-drive-hitting terrors who hit the absolute bejesus out of the ball and hit a ton of doubles and probably won't lose 30% of their homers but would still be incredibly valuable hitters even if they did. And that describes exactly the player that Rafael Devers is. And he did that at 22!
And then on the other hand there's a chance they don't de-juice the ball and he continues to improve offensively and he has some absolutely stupid seasons like .325/.425/.650 type of insanity.
So yeah, I don't know that he'll produce a better season statistically, where he has 54 doubles and a .244 Iso again. But I wouldn't be at all surprised if he's even more valuable going forward, especially if he sustains his improvements on defense. He's a monster.
|
|
|
Post by redsox04071318champs on Oct 7, 2019 12:51:08 GMT -5
Considering Rafy just had an historic season for a third basemen what do people think about his future. Will that be a precursor of things to come or was that a career year? I think it'll be hard for Devers to be better, but I can definitely see him hitting more HRs. Some day he'll top 40 homers. I didn't think he hit well in some clutch situations, kind of like he was pressing, swinging at pitches he shouldn't swing at. I think as he gets older, he'll start becoming more patient, particularly as pitchers are less inclined to challenge him and eventually he'll start to zero in on pitches he should be swinging at - or at least that's the hope I have for him. And if so, you could see some OPS seasons around 1.000 instead of .900. He's awesome already, but I think there are even better days ahead for him, and that goes with his rapidly improving defense as well.
|
|
|
Post by redsox04071318champs on Oct 7, 2019 12:52:53 GMT -5
I could see RD moving to the OF, if Dalbec sticks. Dalbec is a very capable 3b. I can't see the Sox messing with Devers. That would be totally unfair to the kid, who is really becoming a solid 3b. If anything it would be Dalbec going to the outfield although I think at this point he'll start off at 1b in 2020. I don't think 3b is in Dalbec's future unless Devers sustained an injury.
|
|
ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,882
|
Post by ericmvan on Jan 11, 2020 19:49:02 GMT -5
It took nearly five years for MLB to turn Statcast fielding data into a simple runs saved metric. Given the challenges, that sounds about right.
They unveiled it yesterday, and the results are a revelation. They match much better with my eyeballs that either DRS or UZR, and I bet you feel the same way, too.
There were 35 qualifying 3B. Rafael Devers ranked 4th with +7 Outs Above Average. They had him as -4 outs to his right, but an MLB second-best +9 to his left (Arenado was +12). We all saw that.
In 2017 he ranked 37th of 38, at -11. Last year he was 32nd of 35, with -7. But those are totals rather than /150.
He's actually gone -29, -9, +7 OAA/150. You can multiply OAA by .8 to turn it into runs.
DRS had Devers at -6 runs. That's off by about 11, or 1.1 - 1.2 bWAR. In fact, replacing DRS with OAA-runs in bWAR reverses the 2019 Sox MVP rankings: It's Xander, Devers, Mookie, not the other way around.
Xander has gone -3 (28/39), +2 (20/27), -3 (23/35). That passes the eyeball test, too.
They have outfield OAA as well.
|
|
|
Post by sarasoxer on Jan 11, 2020 23:06:42 GMT -5
Wow....in the OF Mookie was +7 and Jr. at +6. Beni was -10.
Robles was +23 and Kiermaier at +17.
Tauchman, Judge and Gardner of the Skanks were +9, +8 and +2 respectively.
|
|
|
Post by jimed14 on Jan 11, 2020 23:41:29 GMT -5
Wow....in the OF Mookie was +7 and Jr. at +6. Beni was -10. Robles was +23 and Kiermaier at +17. Tauchman, Judge and Gardner of the Skanks were +9, +8 and +2 respectively. Benintendi has been overrated for awhile and JBJ/Mookie started out really really slow last year.
|
|
|
Post by Oregon Norm on Jan 12, 2020 1:04:20 GMT -5
Very cool, a defensive metric we can believe in it seems. It passes the eyeball test for me also. I'd like to know what sort of analysis they did on the video streams to derive this stuff. Any idea? I'll bet Devers improves on his right as time goes on. He was doing a little magic on the SS side as the season came to a close, and this metric acknowledges that.
|
|
|
Post by sarasoxer on Jan 12, 2020 12:07:33 GMT -5
Very cool, a defensive metric we can believe in it seems. It passes the eyeball test for me also. I'd like to know what sort of analysis they did on the video streams to derive this stuff. Any idea? I'll bet Devers improves on his right as time goes on. He was doing a little magic on the SS side as the season came to a close, and this metric acknowledges that. I remember watching Devers at 3b in the GCL and being impressed with his cannon arm....but not his range. There was a ball hit to his right...not terribly hard...and he was awkward and late. My thought at the time was that an average 3b would have had it. He was bottom heavy and the impression left was that he lacked necessary quickness. He sure has improved and weight loss has helped IMO. Beni being -10 underscores the need to have him produce at an above average rate at the plate, or be a trade candidate. Maybe we were blinded by the hype...
|
|
|
Post by jimed14 on Jan 12, 2020 12:13:58 GMT -5
Benintendi being -10 in LF should just end the suggestions that he be moved to CF except in emergency situations. He's just not playable there. I expect he'll show up in camp looking completely differently and way more fit. He overcompensated for losing too much weight the season before and showed up too big probably thinking it would help with his power. Maybe playing at a lower weight will help with his defense.
|
|
ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,882
|
Post by ericmvan on Jan 12, 2020 17:02:09 GMT -5
Benintendi being -10 in LF should just end the suggestions that he be moved to CF except in emergency situations. He's just not playable there. I expect he'll show up in camp looking completely differently and way more fit. He overcompensated for losing too much weight the season before and showed up too big probably thinking it would help with his power. Maybe playing at a lower weight will help with his defense. Benny has gone -10, -1, -10, and their "wall ball" adjustment is a work in progress (although I think a better one may hurt him, rather than help him). I put the first -10 down to inexperience with LF and we all seem to agree that his problems this year were with weight and quickness, although I also think he regressed on route running.
|
|
|