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Post by danredhawk on Apr 7, 2019 1:07:42 GMT -5
Hey, good news guys! Sox on pace to finish with the second-overall pick and a MASSIVE bonus pool in 2020!!!
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Post by James Dunne on Apr 22, 2019 14:20:28 GMT -5
I'd been seeing him projected mostly as a 2nd or 3rd round pick.
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Post by James Dunne on Apr 25, 2019 15:13:47 GMT -5
In news that has zero pertinence to the Red Sox, Adley Rutschman is currently hitting .420/.584/.821. In 161 PA he has 47 walks, 22 strikeouts, and 13 homers. I am excited for him to be "working on his defense" in Triple-A a couple Aprils from now.
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Post by ramireja on Apr 25, 2019 15:36:23 GMT -5
In news that has zero pertinence to the Red Sox, Adley Rutschman is currently hitting .420/.584/.821. In 161 PA he has 47 walks, 22 strikeouts, and 13 homers. I am excited for him to be "working on his defense" in Triple-A a couple Aprils from now. Oh, don't worry....the Orioles will find some way to screw up his development.
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Post by jimed14 on Apr 25, 2019 16:49:22 GMT -5
In news that has zero pertinence to the Red Sox, Adley Rutschman is currently hitting .420/.584/.821. In 161 PA he has 47 walks, 22 strikeouts, and 13 homers. I am excited for him to be "working on his defense" in Triple-A a couple Aprils from now. Oh, don't worry....the Orioles will find some way to screw up his development. They'll probably draft someone cheaper and then not spend the extra money saved.
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Post by dirtdog on May 1, 2019 20:02:00 GMT -5
Any gems who might fall to 43 based on signability issues?
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Post by fenwaythehardway on May 1, 2019 21:37:54 GMT -5
Oh, don't worry....the Orioles will find some way to screw up his development. They'll probably draft someone cheaper and then not spend the extra money saved. They have like a real front office now. You can tell because they’re trying to lose 120 games.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on May 2, 2019 2:09:33 GMT -5
Any gems who might fall to 43 based on signability issues? There's really no way to know this until the draft comes around
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Post by Deleted on May 3, 2019 6:15:29 GMT -5
Former Red Sox picks Davis Wendzel and Nick Quintata in MLB top 100 draft prospects. Also noticed a large amount of the top 100 prospects have been drafted before, including the top overall prospect, Adley Rutschman.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on May 3, 2019 10:06:10 GMT -5
Former Red Sox picks Davis Wendzel and Nick Quintata in MLB top 100 draft prospects. Also noticed a large amount of the top 100 prospects have been drafted before, including the top overall prospect, Adley Rutschman. That's usually true of the college guys, I'd presume.
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Post by jdb on May 3, 2019 10:24:47 GMT -5
I’m not holding my breath on the comp pick.
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alnipper
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Living the dream
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Post by alnipper on May 3, 2019 13:07:29 GMT -5
Looking threw the pre-draft lists and ranks it looks like a deep draft. I doubt we will get a draft pick losing Kimbrel which is a shame. A 4th round pick would of been very helpful.
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alnipper
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Living the dream
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Post by alnipper on May 3, 2019 13:09:52 GMT -5
I also would not be surprised if our first pick ends up being a pitcher, since the draft looks pitcher heavy from 30-50. I want best player available that we can sign like everybody else.
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Post by jimed14 on May 3, 2019 13:40:31 GMT -5
Maybe when fans see what this draft looks like for the Red Sox, they will see why blowing past the upper luxury tax threshhold forever isn't viable. Teams in the top 10 of the draft have well more than double the amount of money to spend on picks, including the Rays. Eventually, that is really going to hurt. They'll have to hit on just about everyone for it to be a decent draft and that doesn't happen.
The draft penalties for spending really blow.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on May 3, 2019 14:16:15 GMT -5
We lost what like $450,000 in draft pool money. Which would move us up one place, which is almost nothing. If Kimbrel signs we are just about where we were, yet picking ten picks later which is litterally nothing talent wise. This almost has nothing to do with draft penalties and everything to do with crappy teams getting a huge edge to begin with. Draft penalties have zero to do with Tampa having twice the money.
It's more like an example of why being the top team for years would make it a lot harder to maintain a great minor league system.
At the same time I'm kinda excited to see what they do. I have a true love/hate relationship with the MLB draft. Hate the huge pool difference, which really matter or can late in the draft. Yet love you can move the money around, it makes things interesting.
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Post by jimed14 on May 3, 2019 17:27:14 GMT -5
$450K can also be like 4-5 overslot guys.
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Post by Deleted on May 4, 2019 8:06:13 GMT -5
To get a decent draft here, we would need a good strategy. I don't know enough about any of these guys to name any particular names, but I will go for approx how much I think we should spend with each pick. I don't think we get the comp pick at this point, because Kimbrel doesn't seem likely to sign. The bonus cap +5% is 5,020,470.
I would probably go for guys around slot with our 2 second round and our 3rd and 4th round picks, then aim for around 175k with our 5th, and 125k with our 6th. 50k with 7th, 25k with 8th, and 2.5k with 9th and 10th.
That is 3,989,100. 1,031,370 remaining.
In the 11th and 12th round I would go with Northcut types, and hopefully sign them for around 400-450k above slot (meaning 525-575k overall).
This leaves us with 131,370-231,370 left. Then I would try for Shugart/Machamer/Politi types from rounds 13-18, of which we can hopefully sign at least 4 with the remaining money.
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Post by larrycook on May 4, 2019 23:30:25 GMT -5
Watched Kirby from Elon pitch a while back and I really like his stuff. He could develop into a starter for us.
If we want another potential future lefty starter, miller of Stanford has nice stuff as well.
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Post by dirtdog on May 6, 2019 16:09:35 GMT -5
Did Keith Law mock today give Red Sox pick at 43, and if so who was it?
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Post by vermontsox1 on May 6, 2019 16:17:34 GMT -5
Did Keith Law mock today give Red Sox pick at 43, and if so who was it? It did not. I doubt we will get much in the way of mock drafts that go all the way to 43.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on May 13, 2019 18:25:25 GMT -5
With the increasing amount of data about the ball and the power spike it's causing, I wonder if we'll start to see a shift in strategy towards guys with average-to-better hit tools and raw power that may not be translatable in college or the low minors, but could develop to average or even better in the high minors and the majors. You obviously take a chance on a guy like Casas with big power and a chance for an average hit tool when you can get him, but for the most part I'd much rather take a guy with a Chatham profile over a Dalbec profile any day of the week. Some guys that fit that mold that I'd be interested in with the first few picks: Chase Strumpf (my personal favorite target at this point but as a UCLA alum I am super biased) Aaron Schunk Matt Dyer Sammy Siani Logan Wyatt (preferably not at 43, upside as college 1B only guy is not great) Kyren Paris
EDIT: a big thing I also looked for with a lot of these guys was size. It's easy to dream on a guy like Schunk, at 6'2", 205, filling out into a little more power but for someone like Cameron Cannon at Arizona who is 5'10" if we're being generous, there's less strength potential. All of the guys I listed either have strong frames already or could fill into a strong frame with the exception of Siani who is just a really good athlete.
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Post by James Dunne on May 14, 2019 6:40:22 GMT -5
With the increasing amount of data about the ball and the power spike it's causing, I wonder if we'll start to see a shift in strategy towards guys with average-to-better hit tools and raw power that may not be translatable in college or the low minors, but could develop to average or even better in the high minors and the majors. You obviously take a chance on a guy like Casas with big power and a chance for an average hit tool when you can get him, but for the most part I'd much rather take a guy with a Chatham profile over a Dalbec profile any day of the week. Some guys that fit that mold that I'd be interested in with the first few picks: Chase Strumpf (my personal favorite target at this point but as a UCLA alum I am super biased) Aaron Schunk Matt Dyer Sammy Siani Logan Wyatt (preferably not at 43, upside as college 1B only guy is not great) Kyren Paris EDIT: a big thing I also looked for with a lot of these guys was size. It's easy to dream on a guy like Schunk, at 6'2", 205, filling out into a little more power but for someone like Cameron Cannon at Arizona who is 5'10" if we're being generous, there's less strength potential. All of the guys I listed either have strong frames already or could fill into a strong frame with the exception of Siani who is just a really good athlete. For whatever it's worth, Chatham went 51st and Dalbec went 118th. I also disagree strongly about size--the Red Sox advantage over the last 15 years or so has been their willingness to draft guys who are like 5'9". Pedroia, Betts, Bradley, Benintendi, Chavis. Physical projection is nice and should be a consideration, but give me the 5'9" guy with skills over the guy who looks the part any day.
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Post by Deleted on May 14, 2019 7:17:35 GMT -5
There's another Josh Smith in the draft and a Jhon Diaz in the international pool.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on May 14, 2019 11:16:28 GMT -5
For whatever it's worth, Chatham went 51st and Dalbec went 118th. I also disagree strongly about size--the Red Sox advantage over the last 15 years or so has been their willingness to draft guys who are like 5'9". Pedroia, Betts, Bradley, Benintendi, Chavis. Physical projection is nice and should be a consideration, but give me the 5'9" guy with skills over the guy who looks the part any day. I wasn't implying that you should draft size for the sake of size. I'm saying that, hit tools being roughly equal, having a larger frame generally leads to more power potential. Obviously the Red Sox have done a great job finding undersized guys with elite tools, but they seem to be the exception rather than the rule. If the Red Sox value smaller guys with elite bat speed when hunting for power potential then I understand that but my preference is size. Again, this is hitting skills being comparable, I agree that I don't like drafting guys just because they "look the part". For example, I'm not crazy about the idea of drafting Maurice Hampton or Jerrion Ealy, the two big football recruits, at all. I get that they haven't been able to commit to baseball full time but I just don't think elite athleticism is enticing enough when we don't really know if they can hit. ADD: I don't think it matters all that much where Chatham and Dalbec were drafted, I was just providing general examples of archetypes of known quantities within the system. If you want a pick 43 specific comparison I could draw upon my UCLA experience and contrast Strumpf and Michael Toglia, since they're both ranked similarly on most boards and in the 40-50's. Toglia can go on runs where if he makes contact you're not sure the ball is ever going to touch the ground, but making contact is not always a sure thing with him and when he looks bad he looks awful. If he figures it out he's going to be a monster but I just think that with the changes to where home runs are coming from in the big leagues, it's not worth taking that big of a risk for power in the early rounds.
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Post by James Dunne on May 14, 2019 11:18:07 GMT -5
That's fair. I guess my counter to that would be that the guys with the size AND production are always going to be off the board at #43. At that point you're going to be picking the flaws that you're least worried about. For me, a batter's height is at the top of that list.
Agree on Strumpf, though. Being pretty tall aside, he fits the Red Sox draft pick mold pretty well. Advanced approach, down-ish junior year that might just be bad luck. Certainly wouldn't hate it.
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