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Post by jimed14 on Mar 6, 2019 13:17:51 GMT -5
www.bostonglobe.com/sports/redsox/2019/03/06/for-chris-sale-money-isn-everything-when-comes-contract-negotiations/Yal7KXZEjWrXh1UMWChDBK/story.html?et_rid=1807433112Out of everyone that is coming to an end of team control, Sale seems most likely to sign an extension first to me. I wouldn't be surprised if it's at a discount as well and that it happens this spring. This article gives insight into how Sale is different than most other professional athletes in that he doesn't value money, money, and money as his top 3 priorities. I'll guess 6/$200M (which is kind of funny that could be considered a discount) Next up, I'd guess that JDM negotiates an additional year or two to add to his current contract this fall before he opts out. He's well worth the money especially because of the effects of having him as a teammate.
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Post by telson13 on Mar 6, 2019 13:40:25 GMT -5
www.bostonglobe.com/sports/redsox/2019/03/06/for-chris-sale-money-isn-everything-when-comes-contract-negotiations/Yal7KXZEjWrXh1UMWChDBK/story.html?et_rid=1807433112Out of everyone that is coming to an end of team control, Sale seems most likely to sign an extension first to me. I wouldn't be surprised if it's at a discount as well and that it happens this spring. This article gives insight into how Sale is different than most other professional athletes in that he doesn't value money, money, and money as his top 3 priorities. I'll guess 6/$200M (which is kind of funny that could be considered a discount) Next up, I'd guess that JDM negotiates an additional year or two to add to his current contract this fall before he opts out. He's well worth the money especially because of the effects of having him as a teammate. Funny, if just read that myself and came looking for thoughts. I’d think Sale’s market is probably exactly Kershaw: He’d be signing his extension at the same age Kershaw just did; Kershaw is more accomplished, but not nearly so much more than the hardware would indicate. Both have health questions, and both are the premier LH in their leagues. Obviously, Kershaw’s health issues are popping up again, and we’ll see if Sale’s do. I think I’d prefer the Sox go 7/210, and lower the AAV a smidge, but in the $30M AAV range feels right. I’d love to see the Sox extend JBJ on a Hicks-like deal. I think the 6/70-8/88 range would be fair for both sides, especially in light of Pollock’s deal. Smart move would be to work out a 7-8 year deal for Benintendi right now, too. Escalating salaries that would roughly reflect his arbsalaries, and buy out several FA years in the $12-15M range. Rodriguez is yet another guy who would be a great extension candidate. Maybe a 6-year with a team option, and the same front-end salary escalation while buying out FA years at reasonable cost (Carlos Carrasco might be a good blueprint). I’d hope JDM would sacrifice his opt-outs for maybe an additional year and a small bump (to $25M) in AAV. Mookie...I posted elsewhere but in the wake of Machado/Harper, how about a crescendo-decrescendo 10/$350M year where AAV peaks in the middle, around $40M? Probably can’t do ‘em all, but waiting will just add $, and ?s.
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Post by jimed14 on Mar 6, 2019 13:40:57 GMT -5
It was predicted on mlbtraderumors that if Xander has another season like last, he'd probably be in line for an 8/$200M deal.
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Post by Guidas on Mar 6, 2019 13:49:25 GMT -5
Unless they really think Chatham can be a plus defender with a high OBP - becuase he doesn’t look to hit for much power - I would think Xander is a high priority given what’s available in the free agent market. I wish they had made this decision last year, because, if they think keeping Xander will be too cost-excluse to pull off given the other deals that need to be done and their aversion to being over the luxury tax, they missed a hell of an opportunity this fall when Seattle trade dJuan Segura and his very affordable contract for unimpressive return.
Make no mistake, I want to keep him for at least 5 more years, but if they think 5 x $22M (my guess on fair market value) or more is too much, and couldn’t get that done in 2018 either before the season or after the World Series, then they should’ve traded for Segura in Nov/Dec 18 and then traded Xander for all they could get.
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redsox04071318champs
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Mar 6, 2019 13:52:39 GMT -5
I don't think Hicks' contract extension will wind up being comparable to what JBJ will get on the open market. Hicks' deal was extremely club friendly. The money he's making is Chris Young type money adjusted for inflation.
JBJ is a gold glover defensively plus he'd be crazy not to see what his new swing brings him offensively because if he can really be a force offensively, combined with that defense, there's no way in hell he's signing for that little (in baseball economy. In my real life I'd be grabbing a pen..).
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redsox04071318champs
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Mar 6, 2019 14:00:38 GMT -5
I do concur with others that Sale is most likely to extend. Other little things, like the way he seems invested in the future of Jay Groome or Darwinzon Hernandez who are off in the future, makes you think he's looking long-term at being a Red Sox, so as long as he's reasonably healthy this year I would think there's a better than not chance of him sticking around. Besides aces are harder than anybody to find.
I would anticipate that he won't set the world on fire the way he did last June and July, that he'll merely be excellent rather than otherworldly, because I'm sure Cora would prefer him to save his bullets for October, so Cora will make sure that Sale paces himself this year.
And I think there's a decent shot that the Sox do extend JDM that extra year and up his money.
I think Bogaerts would like to stay, but I think the Sox ultimately don't bring him back. I do think it will take over $200 to keep him. I also think that Porcello and eventually JBJ move on as well as the Sox prioritize Mookie.
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Post by jimed14 on Mar 6, 2019 14:10:01 GMT -5
Unless they really think Chatham can be a plus defender with a high OBP - becuase he doesn’t look to hit for much power - I would think Xander is a high priority given what’s available in the free agent market. I wish they had made this decision last year, because, if they think keeping Xander will be too cost-excluse to pull off given the other deals that need to be done and their aversion to being over the luxury tax, they missed a hell of an opportunity this fall when Seattle trade dJuan Segura and his very affordable contract for unimpressive return. Make no mistake, I want to keep him for at least 5 more years, but if they think 5 x $22M (my guess on fair market value) or more is too much, and couldn’t get that done in 2018 either before the season or after the World Series, then they should’ve traded for Segura in Nov/Dec 18 and then traded Xander for all they could get. Chatham is 24 and hasn't even made it to Portland yet. I wouldn't put much stock in his numbers because he's old for the leagues he has been in. I don't even think he's a sure bench player in the majors, let alone a replacement for Xander. (although people do seem to underrate Lin who I think is much more of a sure thing than Chatham is) Xander might be the best player available next season, though I'm not sure what his market will look like. Obviously, the Red Sox would have to be near the top of the list. I don't really think the Yankees are a good fit for him because Xander is not suited for Yankee Stadium at all and re-signing Gregorius makes way more sense for them because he's perfect for their stadium.
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Post by telson13 on Mar 6, 2019 22:37:41 GMT -5
I don't think Hicks' contract extension will wind up being comparable to what JBJ will get on the open market. Hicks' deal was extremely club friendly. The money he's making is Chris Young type money adjusted for inflation. JBJ is a gold glover defensively plus he'd be crazy not to see what his new swing brings him offensively because if he can really be a force offensively, combined with that defense, there's no way in hell he's signing for that little (in baseball economy. In my real life I'd be grabbing a pen..). Hicks has a wRC+ in the last two years of 129, and he hit 27 HR last year while walking 14% of the time and whiffing less than 20%. He’s had a combined 8.2 fWAR. JBJ has a wRC+ well under 100, and 5 fWAR the past 2 years. Hicks is, very arguably, the better player right now. Pollock got 4/$60M as a FA with similar defense, a better peak (over 6 fWAR vs 5.2 for JBJ), and similar value the last two years despite injury. Teams generally pay more willingly for offense, too. I definitely think JBJ’s price goes up if (when) he has a good offensive year this year, but I doubt he gets a much better deal than Pollock unless he does get his wRC+ around 120 and continues to play stellar defense. Hicks is a pretty good CF, too, though not in the other two’s class, I don’t think. But the WAR values speak for themselves. That’s the market for an extension right now. JBJ might bet on himself, but at $15M plus AAV over 5+ years, he’s probably gone from Boston.
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Post by telson13 on Mar 6, 2019 22:48:07 GMT -5
Unless they really think Chatham can be a plus defender with a high OBP - becuase he doesn’t look to hit for much power - I would think Xander is a high priority given what’s available in the free agent market. I wish they had made this decision last year, because, if they think keeping Xander will be too cost-excluse to pull off given the other deals that need to be done and their aversion to being over the luxury tax, they missed a hell of an opportunity this fall when Seattle trade dJuan Segura and his very affordable contract for unimpressive return. Make no mistake, I want to keep him for at least 5 more years, but if they think 5 x $22M (my guess on fair market value) or more is too much, and couldn’t get that done in 2018 either before the season or after the World Series, then they should’ve traded for Segura in Nov/Dec 18 and then traded Xander for all they could get. Chatham is 24 and hasn't even made it to Portland yet. I wouldn't put much stock in his numbers because he's old for the leagues he has been in. I don't even think he's a sure bench player in the majors, let alone a replacement for Xander. (although people do seem to underrate Lin who I think is much more of a sure thing than Chatham is) Xander might be the best player available next season, though I'm not sure what his market will look like. Obviously, the Red Sox would have to be near the top of the list. I don't really think the Yankees are a good fit for him because Xander is not suited for Yankee Stadium at all and re-signing Gregorius makes way more sense for them because he's perfect for their stadium. As you know, I’m headed to the puzzle factory for a moderate case of Linsanity 2.0. I have little faith in Chatham as more than a good utility player who can man SS solidly; I think Lin can be league-average and possibly a 3-4 WAR player with some experience. At his best (10% outcome) he’d be good for .280-.300/.350-.360/.400-.440, with solid to plus defense at SS. That would make Bogey expendable (let’s hope Lin gets significant time this year and plays well), or at least dramatically improve the Sox’s bargaining position. I’d like to keep Bogey, very much, but at 8/$200M that’s just way too rich. I just don’t get how the Sox can’t get any of these guys to sign mutually friendly deals. It boggles my mind. Like, JBJ-Hicks/Pollock. There’s a clear template. 7/$84M is fair for both sides. Get it done. Bogey? 8/$160M. Fair, done. End their careers in Boston, set for life.
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Post by soxjim on Mar 6, 2019 23:39:59 GMT -5
www.bostonglobe.com/sports/redsox/2019/03/06/for-chris-sale-money-isn-everything-when-comes-contract-negotiations/Yal7KXZEjWrXh1UMWChDBK/story.html?et_rid=1807433112Out of everyone that is coming to an end of team control, Sale seems most likely to sign an extension first to me. I wouldn't be surprised if it's at a discount as well and that it happens this spring. This article gives insight into how Sale is different than most other professional athletes in that he doesn't value money, money, and money as his top 3 priorities. I'll guess 6/$200M (which is kind of funny that could be considered a discount)Next up, I'd guess that JDM negotiates an additional year or two to add to his current contract this fall before he opts out. He's well worth the money especially because of the effects of having him as a teammate. I'm a big fan of Sale and I loved the trade to get him. And I'd love to get him a a discount but if what you're saying is 6 years $32m per is the discount-- no thanks. It's tough enough to rely on his arm lasting a season, never mind 6 seasons at $32m per.
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Post by Guidas on Mar 7, 2019 12:24:39 GMT -5
Chatham is 24 and hasn't even made it to Portland yet. I wouldn't put much stock in his numbers because he's old for the leagues he has been in. I don't even think he's a sure bench player in the majors, let alone a replacement for Xander. (although people do seem to underrate Lin who I think is much more of a sure thing than Chatham is) Xander might be the best player available next season, though I'm not sure what his market will look like. Obviously, the Red Sox would have to be near the top of the list. I don't really think the Yankees are a good fit for him because Xander is not suited for Yankee Stadium at all and re-signing Gregorius makes way more sense for them because he's perfect for their stadium. As you know, I’m headed to the puzzle factory for a moderate case of Linsanity 2.0. I have little faith in Chatham as more than a good utility player who can man SS solidly; I think Lin can be league-average and possibly a 3-4 WAR player with some experience. At his best (10% outcome) he’d be good for .280-.300/.350-.360/.400-.440, with solid to plus defense at SS. That would make Bogey expendable (let’s hope Lin gets significant time this year and plays well), or at least dramatically improve the Sox’s bargaining position. I’d like to keep Bogey, very much, but at 8/$200M that’s just way too rich. I just don’t get how the Sox can’t get any of these guys to sign mutually friendly deals. It boggles my mind. Like, JBJ-Hicks/Pollock. There’s a clear template. 7/$84M is fair for both sides. Get it done. Bogey? 8/$160M. Fair, done. End their careers in Boston, set for life. I like Lin too, though I think he’s fated to be Brock Holt’s replacement. Then again, I’m the one who wanted to keep Iglesias and move Xander to 3rd in the pre-Devers era.
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Post by voiceofreason on Mar 7, 2019 13:12:29 GMT -5
Could the Sox sign more of their core and throw caution to the wind with the expectation relief will comes soon with a new CBA. We all expect that the new CBA will increase caps considerably as they have turned out to be very restricting given the revenues. It has to at least be considered correct?
I would love to see the Sox keep most of this core together.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Mar 7, 2019 13:20:06 GMT -5
Could the Sox sign more of their core and throw caution to the wind with the expectation relief will comes soon with a new CBA. We all expect that the new CBA will increase caps considerably as they have turned out to be very restricting given the revenues. It has to at least be considered correct? I would love to see the Sox keep most of this core together. The pessimistic side of this is you don't necessarily want to be pumping up your payroll when you're worried that there could be a protracted work stoppage in the near future.
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Post by station13 on Mar 8, 2019 10:07:00 GMT -5
It was predicted on mlbtraderumors that if Xander has another season like last, he'd probably be in line for an 8/$200M deal. that would be a hard pass. Let somebody sign him for $200M. I expect MVP performances out of a $200M contract, which Xander has never come close to doing.
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Post by jimed14 on Mar 8, 2019 10:31:45 GMT -5
It was predicted on mlbtraderumors that if Xander has another season like last, he'd probably be in line for an 8/$200M deal. that would be a hard pass. Let somebody sign him for $200M. I expect MVP performances out of a $200M contract, which Xander has never come close to doing. Neither has Manny Machado and he got $300M.
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Post by station13 on Mar 8, 2019 11:19:21 GMT -5
that would be a hard pass. Let somebody sign him for $200M. I expect MVP performances out of a $200M contract, which Xander has never come close to doing. Neither has Manny Machado and he got $300M. Machado definitely has put up MVP numbers. Unfortunately he lives in a world where Trout and Betts exist. Maybe he'll do better in the NL.
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Post by jimed14 on Mar 8, 2019 11:47:17 GMT -5
Neither has Manny Machado and he got $300M. Machado definitely has put up MVP numbers. Unfortunately he lives in a world where Trout and Betts exist. Maybe he'll do better in the NL. Machado had an OPS that was only 22 points higher than Xander's last year. IF Xander has another seasons like that, he's easily worth $200M, when compared to Machado. He's also a great guy who hustles all the time. $200M isn't what it used to be. You aren't signing a young MVP candidate for $200M. Otherwise, Mookie would have been signed by now.
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Post by station13 on Mar 8, 2019 12:12:45 GMT -5
Machado definitely has put up MVP numbers. Unfortunately he lives in a world where Trout and Betts exist. Maybe he'll do better in the NL. Machado had an OPS that was only 22 points higher than Xander's last year. IF Xander has another seasons like that, he's easily worth $200M, when compared to Machado. He's also a great guy who hustles all the time. $200M isn't what it used to be. You aren't signing a young MVP candidate for $200M. Otherwise, Mookie would have been signed by now. You're only looking at last years. Machado has manage around 6WAR yearly over the last 4.
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Post by jimed14 on Mar 8, 2019 12:36:27 GMT -5
Machado had an OPS that was only 22 points higher than Xander's last year. IF Xander has another seasons like that, he's easily worth $200M, when compared to Machado. He's also a great guy who hustles all the time. $200M isn't what it used to be. You aren't signing a young MVP candidate for $200M. Otherwise, Mookie would have been signed by now. You're only looking at last years. Machado has manage around 6WAR yearly over the last 4. That's why I said "if he has another year like last year". That would indicate that his hitting breakout season is going to stick. Shortstops who can approach a .900 OPS are very rare. Xander had a 133 wRC+ last year, 2nd to only Machado's 141 in all of baseball for shortstops.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Mar 12, 2019 12:37:49 GMT -5
8/200 would be just outside of the top 10 largest MLB contracts ever. Bogaerts would probably need to even improve upon what he did last year at the plate, with better defense, to sniff that given what is, frankly, an uneven track record prior to 2018.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Mar 13, 2019 9:03:14 GMT -5
I love Bogarts but he hasn’t been a model of consistency over his career. There is also a ton of promising SS prospects right now. You can’t extend everyone. Tough decisions will have to be made. It may make the most sense to trade him before he hits FA.
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Post by jimed14 on Mar 13, 2019 9:18:43 GMT -5
I love Bogarts but he hasn’t been a model of consistency over his career. There is also a ton of promising SS prospects right now. You can’t extend everyone. Tough decisions will have to be made. It may make the most sense to trade him before he hits FA. First of all, I only said he'd be worth 8/200 if he had another season just as good as last season which should ease concern about consistency. Second, how the hell do they trade him this year while also trying to win?
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Post by Canseco on Mar 13, 2019 11:12:24 GMT -5
I think it’s possible to move Xander and remain really good. Could we get a young, cost-controlled defensive SS, reliever, and a top prospect? If so, I’m confident we can still make serious noise—albeit in a different style—this season while improving our financial flexibility down the line.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Mar 13, 2019 11:16:17 GMT -5
I love Bogarts but he hasn’t been a model of consistency over his career. There is also a ton of promising SS prospects right now. You can’t extend everyone. Tough decisions will have to be made. It may make the most sense to trade him before he hits FA. First of all, I only said he'd be worth 8/200 if he had another season just as good as last season which should ease concern about consistency. Second, how the hell do they trade him this year while also trying to win? I know what you meant and wasn’t really explicitly referring to the $200M deal comment. They obviously probably don’t trade him, but I’m just saying that anything could happen, especially if the season isn’t going how we plan and we expect him to command that big of a deal.
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Post by fenwaydouble on Mar 13, 2019 13:46:34 GMT -5
I've posted this before, but I think it's worth pointing out again: just about every team that's looking to compete this year is already set at shortstop, and teams that aren't looking to compete this year have no incentive to trade for Bogaerts on an expiring deal. Xander is more valuable to the Red Sox than he would be to any other team. I can't see a trade happening unless something goes horribly wrong and the they're out of the race by the deadline.
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