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Post by coachmac on Aug 17, 2019 14:12:16 GMT -5
For everyone urging the Red Sox to pay Mookie $330-350M,what level of performance do you expect from him? Is he worth that much if he performs at 2019 levels or do expect he'll rebound to consistently put up near MVP-like performances?
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Post by incandenza on Aug 17, 2019 14:34:11 GMT -5
For everyone urging the Red Sox to pay Mookie $330-350M,what level of performance do you expect from him? Is he worth that much if he performs at 2019 levels or do expect he'll rebound to consistently put up near MVP-like performances? He's on pace for about 6 WAR in 2019, and if he kept up that pace he'd be worth $350 million in about 7 seasons. The question isn't whether he could "rebound" from 2019 to be worth such a contract, but whether he'd be able to perform at a 2019 level deep into his 30s. That's never a great bet for any player, but I'd like his chances to at least maintain a 3+ WAR level over the course of a long contract. With (hopefully) some surplus value on the front end, I'd given him 10/350. You don't have to assume he'll put up any more 2018-like seasons for that to be a decent investment.
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Post by jimed14 on Aug 17, 2019 15:26:37 GMT -5
It appears that JBJ is the next player up for extension. Is he part of the core? If so what should his market be? Keep him for next year and wait for Duran to come up? If we lose Mookie does that mean we should keep him because we do not want to lose both the CF and the RF in the same year? What does everyone think? It's kind of a slam dunk as far as extending JBJ goes. No. The guy's hitting .220 and hasn't even gotten to his 30th birthday yet. It's not going to get better offensively for him as he ages and it's not like defense improves as a player ages. They have plenty of other players to spend money on. The bigger question re: JBJ is whether they trade him this offseason. Doubtful they do, but it's not out of the realm of possibility. CF is likely Duran's come 2021 and Jimenez within a year or two later might be going after that job. Or they get somebody else, but it's highly doubtful you see JBJ in CF come 2021 and beyond. What if they can sign JBJ for like 4/$28 million? We really have no idea what his market is, but at some price point, he's worth keeping without an obvious replacement. The same goes for Porcello.
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Post by beavertontim on Aug 17, 2019 16:13:24 GMT -5
It's kind of a slam dunk as far as extending JBJ goes. No. The guy's hitting .220 and hasn't even gotten to his 30th birthday yet. It's not going to get better offensively for him as he ages and it's not like defense improves as a player ages. They have plenty of other players to spend money on. The bigger question re: JBJ is whether they trade him this offseason. Doubtful they do, but it's not out of the realm of possibility. CF is likely Duran's come 2021 and Jimenez within a year or two later might be going after that job. Or they get somebody else, but it's highly doubtful you see JBJ in CF come 2021 and beyond. What if they can sign JBJ for like 4/$28 million? We really have no idea what his market is, but at some price point, he's worth keeping without an obvious replacement. The same goes for Porcello. I don't think the team should commit to JBJ for 4 years. There are some internal possibilities for replacement in a year of so. I would rather get someone with a short term money for a year, maybe 2. As for Porcello, I like him, but he has to go.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Aug 17, 2019 16:13:51 GMT -5
It's kind of a slam dunk as far as extending JBJ goes. No. The guy's hitting .220 and hasn't even gotten to his 30th birthday yet. It's not going to get better offensively for him as he ages and it's not like defense improves as a player ages. They have plenty of other players to spend money on. The bigger question re: JBJ is whether they trade him this offseason. Doubtful they do, but it's not out of the realm of possibility. CF is likely Duran's come 2021 and Jimenez within a year or two later might be going after that job. Or they get somebody else, but it's highly doubtful you see JBJ in CF come 2021 and beyond. What if they can sign JBJ for like 4/$28 million? We really have no idea what his market is, but at some price point, he's worth keeping without an obvious replacement. The same goes for Porcello. Unless Duran fizzles, I would still pass. I don't think JBJ is going to age well. Nor do I think he'd accept that kind of deal anyways unless he had a really lousy year. I think 2021 the Red Sox need to look to a new CF, somebody under the age of 30 who has his best years in front of him, not behind him. They can find other uses for the $7 million.
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Post by jimmydugan on Aug 17, 2019 17:50:09 GMT -5
What if they can sign JBJ for like 4/$28 million? We really have no idea what his market is, but at some price point, he's worth keeping without an obvious replacement. The same goes for Porcello. Unless Duran fizzles, I would still pass. I don't think JBJ is going to age well. Nor do I think he'd accept that kind of deal anyways unless he had a really lousy year. I think 2021 the Red Sox need to look to a new CF, somebody under the age of 30 who has his best years in front of him, not behind him. They can find other uses for the $7 million. I agree that the Sox should be looking into CF depth, but honestly i think JBJ is a good fit and won't cost much. Because of Fenway, they need alot of innings covered by CF'er types. Is there evidence to support JBJ as a guy who won't age well? Seems like he's the opposite of a dude like crawford who fell off a cliff. He has great reactions and will take a walk. JBJ probably won't be an all star going forward, but i feel like there are multiple ways that he could help the team. I would love to have the Sox start building some depth with guys who can be at least average. He's a guy who can play most games even if he only gets 300-400 PA. If he can lay down an occasional bunt, I feel like he's an ideal 4th OF.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Aug 17, 2019 18:00:59 GMT -5
It's kind of a slam dunk as far as extending JBJ goes. No. The guy's hitting .220 and hasn't even gotten to his 30th birthday yet. It's not going to get better offensively for him as he ages and it's not like defense improves as a player ages. They have plenty of other players to spend money on. The bigger question re: JBJ is whether they trade him this offseason. Doubtful they do, but it's not out of the realm of possibility. CF is likely Duran's come 2021 and Jimenez within a year or two later might be going after that job. Or they get somebody else, but it's highly doubtful you see JBJ in CF come 2021 and beyond. What if they can sign JBJ for like 4/$28 million? We really have no idea what his market is, but at some price point, he's worth keeping without an obvious replacement. The same goes for Porcello. Ryan Webber has been just as good as Porcello. Done.
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Post by jimed14 on Aug 17, 2019 18:20:54 GMT -5
What if they can sign JBJ for like 4/$28 million? We really have no idea what his market is, but at some price point, he's worth keeping without an obvious replacement. The same goes for Porcello. Ryan Webber has been just as good as Porcello. Done. Porcello has a little more of a track record. Do you think that every pitcher that has a bad year is done?
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Aug 17, 2019 18:26:13 GMT -5
Well if Sale needs Tommy John surgery, then trying to go all out to win in 2020 would be a fatal mistake. 2020 should be all about finding out the future of the franchise.
Mookie is either in or out this off-season. Simple as that. Trade JBJ too.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Aug 17, 2019 18:26:50 GMT -5
Ryan Webber has been just as good as Porcello. Done. Porcello has a little more of a track record. Do you think that every pitcher that has a bad year is done? I think Porcello is useless with a juiced baseball.
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Post by jimed14 on Aug 17, 2019 18:28:18 GMT -5
Porcello has a little more of a track record. Do you think that every pitcher that has a bad year is done? I think Porcello is useless with a juiced baseball. So are most pitchers if you haven't noticed. At least he gives innings.
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Post by coachmac on Aug 17, 2019 18:28:53 GMT -5
For everyone urging the Red Sox to pay Mookie $330-350M,what level of performance do you expect from him? Is he worth that much if he performs at 2019 levels or do expect he'll rebound to consistently put up near MVP-like performances? He's on pace for about 6 WAR in 2019, and if he kept up that pace he'd be worth $350 million in about 7 seasons. The question isn't whether he could "rebound" from 2019 to be worth such a contract, but whether he'd be able to perform at a 2019 level deep into his 30s. That's never a great bet for any player, but I'd like his chances to at least maintain a 3+ WAR level over the course of a long contract. With (hopefully) some surplus value on the front end, I'd given him 10/350. You don't have to assume he'll put up any more 2018-like seasons for that to be a decent investment. Thanks.
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Post by orion09 on Aug 17, 2019 18:34:13 GMT -5
If Sale needs TJ, it's possible that swings the needle on the Betts/JBJ decision.
I still think their best play, both from a team-building and ticket-selling perspective, is to hold onto Betts, enjoy the 4-5 WAR they couldn't otherwise replace, and try to resign him after the season.
But without Sale, their WS chances go way down, so if someone offers a great prospect package, maybe it makes the decision to trade him a little easier.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Aug 17, 2019 18:36:04 GMT -5
I think Porcello is useless with a juiced baseball. So are most pitchers if you haven't noticed. At least he gives innings. Charlie Morton and other quality pitchers disagree.
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Post by jimed14 on Aug 17, 2019 18:38:40 GMT -5
So are most pitchers if you haven't noticed. At least he gives innings. Charlie Morton and other quality pitchers disagree. Lucky for Morton, he pitches half his games in one of the biggest parks in the entire majors. I guess it's just endless stupid argument time.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Aug 17, 2019 18:56:14 GMT -5
Charlie Morton and other quality pitchers disagree. Lucky for Morton, he pitches half his games in one of the biggest parks in the entire majors. I guess it's just endless stupid argument time. Blame the ballpark. When a Sox pitcher stinks. Blame the baseball. I have no interest in watching Porcello pitch in his 30's.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Aug 17, 2019 18:57:16 GMT -5
Unless Duran fizzles, I would still pass. I don't think JBJ is going to age well. Nor do I think he'd accept that kind of deal anyways unless he had a really lousy year. I think 2021 the Red Sox need to look to a new CF, somebody under the age of 30 who has his best years in front of him, not behind him. They can find other uses for the $7 million. I agree that the Sox should be looking into CF depth, but honestly i think JBJ is a good fit and won't cost much. Because of Fenway, they need alot of innings covered by CF'er types. Is there evidence to support JBJ as a guy who won't age well? Seems like he's the opposite of a dude like crawford who fell off a cliff. He has great reactions and will take a walk. JBJ probably won't be an all star going forward, but i feel like there are multiple ways that he could help the team. I would love to have the Sox start building some depth with guys who can be at least average. He's a guy who can play most games even if he only gets 300-400 PA. If he can lay down an occasional bunt, I feel like he's an ideal 4th OF. JBJ's defense hasn't been quite as good as it had been. That's the kind of thing that doesn't get better as a player ages. And with JBJ his defense is a huge part of his value. If he had a better bat, you could move him to RF and it could still work as he ages - kind of like Torii Hunter, but the bat just isn't there consistently enough and I don't see that getting better as he ages either. I'm fine with JBJ for 2020 unless they get a good trade for him, but I'm fine with them cutting the chord after 2020. I do hope that Duran is ready by then. If not they'll need a stopgap.
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Post by jimed14 on Aug 17, 2019 19:01:10 GMT -5
Lucky for Morton, he pitches half his games in one of the biggest parks in the entire majors. I guess it's just endless stupid argument time. Blame the ballpark. When a Sox pitcher stinks. Blame the baseball. I have no interest in watching Porcello pitch in his 30's. Yeah when you pitch in a bigger ballpark, you generally give up less HR, or do you disagree? I really am not excited about watching any pitching anymore because all of them can have home runs hit by mediocre minor league players no matter how good the pitch is.
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dcb26
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Post by dcb26 on Aug 17, 2019 19:45:58 GMT -5
I'm fine with JBJ for 2020 unless they get a good trade for him, but I'm fine with them cutting the chord after 2020. I do hope that Duran is ready by then. If not they'll need a stopgap. Duran really is the key to answering the CF question for the next few years. If he can give a Bradley-esque level of production in the majors, great, you move on to him unless a significant upgrade falls in your lap. If that's doubtful, then you have a decision to make, and will need to consider devoting significant resources to the position. Even if you believe Jimenez has a good chance at an MLB future, he's likely 3-4 years away, which means you're looking for more than a stop-gap solution. Bradley on a decent contract is likely as good as any other "budget" option, but it suddenly becomes a position to look for a long-term solution. For the record, I don't consider Bradley or Porcello as core players, depending on how you define the term, but believe they play "core" roles in the relative stability they bring (consistent defense and innings pitched, respectively) to very important positions.
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