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Post by marrcus on Mar 20, 2019 23:37:21 GMT -5
A contending NL team might be willing to do a rental for 2020: they wouldn't offer much worthwhile in a deal (he wouldn't sign with them either, before FA). But you could likely get a young player, maybe an OF with a future.
My guess is Betts stays for very large dollars unless he has something he can't stand about the franchise. If he doesn't stay, it will likely be just walking away,no rental trade. And yes I do think Henry has a limit.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Mar 21, 2019 6:51:30 GMT -5
I don't know why everyone is twisting themselves into knots over this. Pay him. That's it.
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Post by greatscottcooper on Mar 21, 2019 8:31:21 GMT -5
Unless there's some type of drastic slowdown or reversal in player salary inflation it makes all the sense in the world to sign guys now. They will only be more expensive in a year or two from now. With what some of these guys make in arbitration today is not that much of a hit on your payroll, and you can possibly put them on the books into their mid 30's instead of until they're 40.
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Post by greatscottcooper on Mar 21, 2019 8:33:36 GMT -5
I understand that's a very simple blanket statement. But I was just thinking about the last time the Sox actually signed a homegrown all star to an extension? aside from Dustin Pedroia I can't think of anyone else in recent history. I would like to think if they're serious about keeping some of these guys then the time to get serious would be now.
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Post by mredsox89 on Mar 21, 2019 12:29:20 GMT -5
I don't know why everyone is twisting themselves into knots over this. Pay him. That's it. Right, but his comments yesterday pretty said blankly "I'm going to become a FA." I'm not saying that if he gets to FA the Sox are screwed, but there's a far more likely chance he's wearing a different uniform if he makes it to FA, and I'm not sure even a Trout offer would get him to back off his FA comments at this point
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Post by iakovos11 on Mar 21, 2019 12:45:28 GMT -5
I don't know why everyone is twisting themselves into knots over this. Pay him. That's it. Right, but his comments yesterday pretty said blankly "I'm going to become a FA." I'm not saying that if he gets to FA the Sox are screwed, but there's a far more likely chance he's wearing a different uniform if he makes it to FA, and I'm not sure even a Trout offer would get him to back off his FA comments at this point
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Post by jimed14 on Mar 21, 2019 15:27:13 GMT -5
There's no way in hell that the Red Sox don't end up with Mookie if they want to sign him. Sorry, it's just how I feel. They aren't dumb and they have lots of money.
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Post by mredsox89 on Mar 21, 2019 16:09:49 GMT -5
There's no way in hell that the Red Sox don't end up with Mookie if they want to sign him. Sorry, it's just how I feel. They aren't dumb and they have lots of money. Do they want him at 12/$450M? I have no clue. It feels, at least this week, like unless he's getting that, he's at the very least testing FA Edit: Also, I don't disagree, I'm just not sure if another team will throw stupid money at him
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Post by Guidas on Mar 21, 2019 16:16:24 GMT -5
Goldschmidt, Snell and Jimenez just today’s additions to the lock-up parade.
Meanwhile, down in Fort Meyers, Xander, Sale, JD, Porcello, Mookie, JBJ, Beni, Devers be like, “Uh huh.”
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Post by johnsilver52 on Mar 21, 2019 16:35:19 GMT -5
Goldschmidt, Snell and Jimenez just today’s additions to the lock-up parade. Meanwhile, down in Fort Meyers, Xander, Sale, JD, Porcello, Mookie, JBJ, Beni, Devers be like, “Uh huh.” That's not really fair. those players and most fans realize where the team stands vs the salary cap for the upcoming season. my own figuring is that the Sox are talking extension currently, or have with several of those names, but i doubt any will be signed before the season is over.. unless it's extremely favorable to the club penalty wise, or somehow the numbers can be worked out/trade of a high salaried player 1st.
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Post by mredsox89 on Mar 21, 2019 17:08:27 GMT -5
Yea, if the Sox don't announce any extensions by the end of April, I'll be annoyed, based on what every other team has done.
But the Sox have a very big reason to not increase anyone's AAV before the 2019 campaign gets underway
Edit: Apparently according to Alex Speier, it no longer matters when the deal is signed, so long as the extension doesn't kick in until the following season. So they technically could sign Sale to a long term deal that kicks in for 2020, and it wouldn't impact any 2019 luxury tax limit stuff.
Definitely throws a wrench into things, as most people, even writers, were working off of at least the premise that anything announced before the season started would affect current year AAV
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Post by jimed14 on Mar 21, 2019 18:03:28 GMT -5
There is also a possibility and I think it's rather likely, that the Red Sox know that these players' demands far exceeds their actual markets and that they can still sign any of them for less if they wait even if they still outbid every other team.
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Post by ghostofrussgibson on Mar 21, 2019 18:17:03 GMT -5
I realize I'm probably a lone wolf on this, but I'd rather see Boston trade some of these big dollar players for younger talent. For older guys you want to dump, eat their contract to get better minor leaguers or more international monies. It concerns me when a huge amount of money gets funneled to a few players on long term deals. How many REALLY work out? Baseball's become a younger man's game. I love what the White Sox did with Jimenez today.
On a related note, I'd like to see a salary cap. NFL teams have hard decisions to make. Baseball... well... it's only (tax) money.
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Post by michael on Mar 21, 2019 18:17:16 GMT -5
I don't know why everyone is twisting themselves into knots over this. Pay him. That's it. FTH, do you mean, sign him irregardless of the effect on the Lux Tax punishments?
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Mar 21, 2019 18:39:00 GMT -5
I don't know why everyone is twisting themselves into knots over this. Pay him. That's it. FTH, do you mean, sign him irregardless of the effect on the Lux Tax punishments? Pretty much, yeah. I don't think there's any realistic Mookie contract that I would even think twice about.
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Post by telson13 on Mar 21, 2019 22:10:03 GMT -5
A contending NL team might be willing to do a rental for 2020: they wouldn't offer much worthwhile in a deal (he wouldn't sign with them either, before FA). But you could likely get a young player, maybe an OF with a future. My guess is Betts stays for very large dollars unless he has something he can't stand about the franchise. If he doesn't stay, it will likely be just walking away,no rental trade. And yes I do think Henry has a limit. Mookie’s averaged 8.0 fWAR/yr the past three years. That’s a transformational player; replace a slightly below-avg to avg OF (1-2 WAR player; could be COF *or* CF, which has premium value) with Mookie, and a .500 team is instantly a strong WC contender. He’d likely return substantially more than Machado did at the deadline, whether he was traded pre-season or in July. For a team on a stretch drive, he’d be adding 3 wins...which is a ton over 60-70 games. Also, if he’s going to FA, I can guarantee you that just about every team in baseball will be interested, because he IS that transformational player. Teams are going to line up to get an early “in” with him to make their pitch. Because he can play any OF spot, he’ll have a broad range of suitors. He’s almost certain to start a bidding war. They’ll get plenty back, but no matter what it is it’ll never make up for losing Mookie.
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Post by telson13 on Mar 21, 2019 22:23:57 GMT -5
FTH, do you mean, sign him irregardless of the effect on the Lux Tax punishments? Pretty much, yeah. I don't think there's any realistic Mookie contract that I would even think twice about. I saw McCutcheon mentioned elsewhere, but Mookie’s hit tool (particularly his contact rate) and arm are clearly superior; his baserunning is better, too, although their speed is similar at prime. Mookie’s also arguably the best “athlete” the game has seen in a while (though I’m maybe unfairly dinging Trout for a substantial size/strength advantage; regardless it’s *very* close). Mookie’s better than McCutcheon ever was, and so I agree with you. I think Mookie’s a very, very good bet to age well...any loss of power/speed e’ll probably make up for with contact quality/skill, at least for a good while. He’s very likely going to provide a LOT of excess value for a half-decade or more even at stupid-looking AAV ($40M, at $8M/win, and he’s still giving you 3 extra wins a year at his current 3-year pace). Plus, there’s a huge benefit to concentrating value at one lineup spot: An 8-WAR guy and two 2-WAR guys is a lot better than 3 4-WAR guys, because 2-WAR guys are easy to find and/or develop. No matter what realistic deal they come up with, he’s almost certain to be worth it.
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Post by johnsilver52 on Mar 22, 2019 4:53:53 GMT -5
I realize I'm probably a lone wolf on this, but I'd rather see Boston trade some of these big dollar players for younger talent. For older guys you want to dump, eat their contract to get better minor leaguers or more international monies. It concerns me when a huge amount of money gets funneled to a few players on long term deals. How many REALLY work out? Baseball's become a younger man's game. I love what the White Sox did with Jimenez today. On a related note, I'd like to see a salary cap. NFL teams have hard decisions to make. Baseball... well... it's only (tax) money. Think from 1 story we saw earlier in the offseason they may have possibly tried this approach, at least with regards to Porcello, who doubt will see close to his current 20m AAV in FA once he hits the open market and doubt the FO got any bites without subsidizing part of his current salary, which is why he's still here. JBJ is another could have seen shopped around some after his post season heroics. Might as well, but doubt any GM's were willing to be blinded and pay for that short term success and over look the long cold streaks he has. IMO, those 2 were the obvious ones to trade earlier and clear some space for a sign. Tougher one would have been Xander, then would have had to rely on Lin and bring in some kind of vet as another backup plan. Too risky.
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Post by Smittyw on Mar 22, 2019 6:29:32 GMT -5
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Post by voiceofreason on Mar 22, 2019 7:08:28 GMT -5
I understand that's a very simple blanket statement. But I was just thinking about the last time the Sox actually signed a homegrown all star to an extension? aside from Dustin Pedroia I can't think of anyone else in recent history. I would like to think if they're serious about keeping some of these guys then the time to get serious would be now. Your comment made me start to think about the history of the Sox home grown talent and losing players to free agency. Other than Luchino screwing up the negotiation for Lester I can't think of one player where the Sox screwed up. Look at Ellsbury in NY. But the fact is the Sox over the past 30 years have not developed that many of their own draft picks into all stars. The ones that did were traded. Of course Roger is a different story but I have always contended that Duquette pissed him off and that is when he started working a lot harder in the gym with the help of roids at some point. I think it is safe to say that as far as developing home grown guys the Sox have been more successful over the past 5 years than at any other time since the late sixties early seventies. !975 with Rice and Lynn as rookies was a magical year, the Fisk hr. What memories, that was the year the Sox hooked me for life. The next 2 that I hope/expect to step up to star level are Benny and Devers, Benny is just about there and this could be the year RD explodes. Lots of upside with those 2. DD has some serious work to do when the season ends.
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Post by voiceofreason on Mar 22, 2019 7:20:32 GMT -5
A contending NL team might be willing to do a rental for 2020: they wouldn't offer much worthwhile in a deal (he wouldn't sign with them either, before FA). But you could likely get a young player, maybe an OF with a future. My guess is Betts stays for very large dollars unless he has something he can't stand about the franchise. If he doesn't stay, it will likely be just walking away,no rental trade. And yes I do think Henry has a limit. Mookie’s averaged 8.0 fWAR/yr the past three years. That’s a transformational player; replace a slightly below-avg to avg OF (1-2 WAR player; could be COF *or* CF, which has premium value) with Mookie, and a .500 team is instantly a strong WC contender. He’d likely return substantially more than Machado did at the deadline, whether he was traded pre-season or in July. For a team on a stretch drive, he’d be adding 3 wins...which is a ton over 60-70 games. Also, if he’s going to FA, I can guarantee you that just about every team in baseball will be interested, because he IS that transformational player. Teams are going to line up to get an early “in” with him to make their pitch. Because he can play any OF spot, he’ll have a broad range of suitors. He’s almost certain to start a bidding war. They’ll get plenty back, but no matter what it is it’ll never make up for losing Mookie. Nothing beyond hurt feelings to trade him and then sign him in free agency, maybe with a nod and a wink.
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Post by The Town Sports Cards on Mar 22, 2019 8:07:26 GMT -5
I understand that's a very simple blanket statement. But I was just thinking about the last time the Sox actually signed a homegrown all star to an extension? aside from Dustin Pedroia I can't think of anyone else in recent history. I would like to think if they're serious about keeping some of these guys then the time to get serious would be now. Your comment made me start to think about the history of the Sox home grown talent and losing players to free agency. That's actually an interesting thought experiment, and I honestly don't even know how many players would fit, but since say 2000, who were the homegrown players the Sox let go in Free Agency that you regret them not resigning? I actually went through the drafts from 2000 on, here's a complete list of players who were drafted and signed by the Sox, had MLB experience and left via Free Agency (remember Lester was traded for Cespedes) Chris Smith (2002) Jon Papelpon (2003) Tommy Hottovy (2004) Jacoby Ellsbury (2005) Ryan Kalish (2006) Carson Blair (2008) Madison Younginer (2009) Bryce Brent (2010) Justin Haley (2012) Drafted and still on the team: Dustin Pedroia (2004) Christian Vazquez (2008) Brandon Workman (2010) Mookie Betts (2011) Jackie Bradley Jr (2011) Blake Swihart (2011) Matt Barnes (2011) Mike Miller (2012) Austin Maddox (2012) Brian Johnson (2012) Sam Travis (2014) Bobby Poyner (2015) Andrew Benintendi (2015) While the Sox have traded away plenty of talented guys they drafted (Lester, Kopech, Lowrie, Rizzo, Youkilis, etc), they've been pretty good at keeping the homegrown guys worth keeping. Now there really have been no previous examples of guys like Betts and Benintendi getting close to FA before, but I think we've seen that if the Sox want to keep someone, they'll keep them.
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Post by voiceofreason on Mar 22, 2019 9:05:11 GMT -5
Not drafted but IFA signings being equal to would include, Devers and Bogey also. That is quite a list. Hopefully we will be adding Darwinzon to that list in the near future, it would mean an awful to the Sox to get lucky with him becoming an unheralded star. A #1/2/3 on a rookie deal would be like winning the lottery.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Mar 22, 2019 9:36:28 GMT -5
Worth noting too that during the Epstein era, they were much better about extending players early. Youk, Lester, Buchholz, and Pedroia all were extended well in advance of free agency, all of which worked out great from a team perspective. Even as frustrating as Buchholz was, no one ever really wanted to trade him, because that contract was so good.
Some of that's just circumstance, but it does kind of seem like in recent years either haven't quite nailed some of their internal evaluations, or haven't had the conviction to act on them. Maybe they tried to extend Mookie early and he was just never interested, but it seems like if you'd really gone hard after him early on you could have gotten something done. Or Rich Hill, for a much smaller example. There's a ton of hindsight there but still, if there was one team that should have known what they had there, it should have been the one that identified it in the first place.
Which, by the way, right about now would be a great time to lock up Devers, BEFORE the breakout. Or even Beni, who's only a few gusts of wind away from his own MVP campaign, really.
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Post by Guidas on Mar 23, 2019 10:22:15 GMT -5
I understand that's a very simple blanket statement. But I was just thinking about the last time the Sox actually signed a homegrown all star to an extension? aside from Dustin Pedroia I can't think of anyone else in recent history. I would like to think if they're serious about keeping some of these guys then the time to get serious would be now. Your comment made me start to think about the history of the Sox home grown talent and losing players to free agency. Other than Luchino screwing up the negotiation for Lester I can't think of one player where the Sox screwed up. Look at Ellsbury in NY. But the fact is the Sox over the past 30 years have not developed that many of their own draft picks into all stars. The ones that did were traded. Of course Roger is a different story but I have always contended that Duquette pissed him off and that is when he started working a lot harder in the gym with the help of roids at some point. I think it is safe to say that as far as developing home grown guys the Sox have been more successful over the past 5 years than at any other time since the late sixties early seventies. !975 with Rice and Lynn as rookies was a magical year, the Fisk hr. What memories, that was the year the Sox hooked me for life. The next 2 that I hope/expect to step up to star level are Benny and Devers, Benny is just about there and this could be the year RD explodes. Lots of upside with those 2. DD has some serious work to do when the season ends. Damon, like Sale, wasn't homegrown, but letting him go was a huge mistake. A case could be made, too, that they screwed up letting Derek Lowe go. If they let Xander go, that could be a significant screw-up. I like Lin, but he would be a #9 hitter, and he's a better replacement for Holt or Nuñez. I have zero faith that Chatham can make that jump or be a better SS than Lin at the MLB level, but both are huge steps down from Xander.
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