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Post by telson13 on Mar 27, 2019 22:41:54 GMT -5
Ah, Dang...you’re right, I forgot they average AAV for lux tax purposes. Yeah, that hurts them. Then you’re talking paying overage (though do they pay overage on the actual salary or the AAV?) of 40% I think. Really good point on your part. Unfortunately, yeah. That's the one time it "hurts" the Sox to lock into that type of deal which is normally so beneficial for a ballclub where a player gets 1st time security albeit at less total future money if they fulfill projections but the teams get reasonable cost certainty and sometimes an extra year or two, but the Sox have so much money tied up in so much talent that they don't have the luxury of that and that's where it can be a double-edged sword. And to further complicate things when you read about how badly Porcello wants to stay and that's he's openly willing to give a discount and he makes it clear that his heart is there - it sucks that they probably aren't going to work things out. Of all their pitchers, going forward, he's probably the 5th best, and they can't keep everybody, although if they lose Xander (who I think would really love to stay, but with his agent being Boras it's less likely - no discounts there), then maybe that opens up some space for a discounted Porcello? I mean my head says that Porcello probably isn't getting better over the next 5 years, but man, this guy and I believe him, really wants to be a Red Sox, which is so much nicer than a guy going somewhere just because they're the highest bidder. I do believe that Porcello truly bleeds Red Sox red, and I have a lot of respect for him because of that. Makes it pretty easy to root for him. Man, Porcello is a tough one. I really, wholeheartedly agree when it comes to a guy who wants to stay. He obviously loves being here, and he definitely has value as what amounts to being a solid 3. His stuff really is pedestrian, though, and unless he suddenly goes nuts at Driveline and adds some velo back a la Verlander...idk. The Gio Gonzalez comp is a fair one; Porcello’s been a shade better, I think, but if he goes to FA? Man, he’s still pretty young so somebody might pay him, but he could just as easily end up taking a $5M flier. And as much as I like the guy, there’s no way (especially with Houck and D on the horizon) they can afford to pay him even, say, 3/$30M. They’re really in a spot where they almost *need* Chavis to work out as a 2B or 1b, and for one of those young guys to take the 5 spot. Especially with Sale costing $15M more a year. Idk, maybe Eovaldi works out well and Houck or Hernandez steps up, and Price pitches well enough that he’s tradeable (say, puts up a market-value season at 4.5-5 WAR) without much subsidy. But they’re legit maxed-out right now. You’d hope Bogey would ink for a reasonable deal (say, 7/120?), and JBJ would take a Hicks contract, but...ugh. HUGE changes coming for this team.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Mar 27, 2019 23:18:44 GMT -5
Unfortunately, yeah. That's the one time it "hurts" the Sox to lock into that type of deal which is normally so beneficial for a ballclub where a player gets 1st time security albeit at less total future money if they fulfill projections but the teams get reasonable cost certainty and sometimes an extra year or two, but the Sox have so much money tied up in so much talent that they don't have the luxury of that and that's where it can be a double-edged sword. And to further complicate things when you read about how badly Porcello wants to stay and that's he's openly willing to give a discount and he makes it clear that his heart is there - it sucks that they probably aren't going to work things out. Of all their pitchers, going forward, he's probably the 5th best, and they can't keep everybody, although if they lose Xander (who I think would really love to stay, but with his agent being Boras it's less likely - no discounts there), then maybe that opens up some space for a discounted Porcello? I mean my head says that Porcello probably isn't getting better over the next 5 years, but man, this guy and I believe him, really wants to be a Red Sox, which is so much nicer than a guy going somewhere just because they're the highest bidder. I do believe that Porcello truly bleeds Red Sox red, and I have a lot of respect for him because of that. Makes it pretty easy to root for him. Man, Porcello is a tough one. I really, wholeheartedly agree when it comes to a guy who wants to stay. He obviously loves being here, and he definitely has value as what amounts to being a solid 3. His stuff really is pedestrian, though, and unless he suddenly goes nuts at Driveline and adds some velo back a la Verlander...idk. The Gio Gonzalez comp is a fair one; Porcello’s been a shade better, I think, but if he goes to FA? Man, he’s still pretty young so somebody might pay him, but he could just as easily end up taking a $5M flier. And as much as I like the guy, there’s no way (especially with Houck and D on the horizon) they can afford to pay him even, say, 3/$30M. They’re really in a spot where they almost *need* Chavis to work out as a 2B or 1b, and for one of those young guys to take the 5 spot. Especially with Sale costing $15M more a year. Idk, maybe Eovaldi works out well and Houck or Hernandez steps up, and Price pitches well enough that he’s tradeable (say, puts up a market-value season at 4.5-5 WAR) without much subsidy. But they’re legit maxed-out right now. You’d hope Bogey would ink for a reasonable deal (say, 7/120?), and JBJ would take a Hicks contract, but...ugh. HUGE changes coming for this team. I think that's the plan - hope that one of Houck or Hernandez is ready to step in come 2020 but I'm still not sold on either as a starting pitcher - yet anyways. As far as Xander goes, if he has another season like he just did, I think he can probably fetch 8 years $200 million. If Rendon gets re-signed then Xander might be the top free agent on the market and if so, he'll blow away that 7/120 figure.
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mobaz
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Post by mobaz on Mar 28, 2019 6:33:18 GMT -5
If November 1st Porcello had said he'd sign for what Eovaldi eventually got, would anyone rather have Porcello for 4 yrs 17 per than Eov? Reliability over ceiling?
I really don't think so but if Eovaldi keeps getting injured the next few years, we might be kicking ourselves.
I think Porcello gets better than 3/30, but mid tier pitching market has not been kind. He is young.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Mar 28, 2019 6:45:47 GMT -5
If the Red Sox really wanted Porcello on a cheap deal, they could just sign Dallas Keuchel.
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Post by fenwaydouble on Mar 28, 2019 7:44:19 GMT -5
If November 1st Porcello had said he'd sign for what Eovaldi eventually got, would anyone rather have Porcello for 4 yrs 17 per than Eov? Reliability over ceiling? I really don't think so but if Eovaldi keeps getting injured the next few years, we might be kicking ourselves. I think Porcello gets better than 3/30, but mid tier pitching market has not been kind. He is young. Yeah, I think I'd probably take Porcello. With Sale, Price, and Rodriguez locked into the rotation long-term and a shaky bullpen, I'd prefer the guy who's the safest bet to chew up a lot of innings. Hard to see it happening now, though.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Mar 28, 2019 9:15:21 GMT -5
I've posted this before, but I think it's worth pointing out again: just about every team that's looking to compete this year is already set at shortstop, and teams that aren't looking to compete this year have no incentive to trade for Bogaerts on an expiring deal. Xander is more valuable to the Red Sox than he would be to any other team. I can't see a trade happening unless something goes horribly wrong and the they're out of the race by the deadline. Last post- Yesterday was the last day where you would have had your answer on a Xander Bogaerts extension before his service time is up. He's going to test free agency. Dombrowski has already stated baring something unforseen happening, the Sox aren't talking contracts in season. Why I chose to reply to this, well frankly you're looking for a reason not to get paid. It's a bad one. If Xander has a big year, he's going to get paid. All you have to look at is the teams that have future money to spend. The White Sox have already told the world that they had 250 million for Machado this winter. I'm sure a 27 year old Xander would fit in nicely with their plans to win in the future. They'd move Tim Anderson to third base. Also, look at the Blue Jays. Who also wants to win the future. They have I think 16 AAV million dollars guarenteed on the books for 2020. Think about how ridiculously low that is. Not to mention if Atlanta ever decides to spend money. They have 23 million coming off the books with Donaldson being on a one year deal. Xander is a big upgrade over Swanson if they ever commmit to spending money on a player. The fair estimate I think for Xander would be 7 years 175 million. If I'm the Sox, I might do that, but that's really the best I would do. I would really be more comfortable at 6 years and 150 million. It kills me that Xander is going to test free agency. I wish more of the position players felt like Porcello when he came out yesterday and was willing to take less to stay here. I don't know, we'll see. The position players on this team seem eager to getting a market deal, rather than taking potentially less to stay. Bregman took a good deal to stay with the Astros and he signed for almost the same offer that Mookie was offered 2-3 years ago. Just a real bummer. Edit- Realized you said trade after and I didn't read that until after. My mistake, but I think the point still stands from my perspective.
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Post by Guidas on Mar 28, 2019 15:33:39 GMT -5
So to sum up, looks like the cost savings will come from letting Xander and Porcello go, but throwing much of their money at Mookie, and maybe some at Devers and Benintendi, whereas JBJ TBD.
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Post by vermontsox1 on Mar 31, 2019 19:52:26 GMT -5
Moving all Xander talk to the thread re: his extension.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Mar 31, 2019 22:01:19 GMT -5
Pete AbrahamVerified account @peteabe 1h1 hour ago
Let me try this again. #RedSox have:
Bogaerts through 2025 ('22 opt out) Sale through 2024 ('22 opt out) Devers through 2023 Benintendi, Eovaldi, Price, Vazquez through 2022 Barnes, Pedroia through 2021 Betts, Bradley through 2020
lol, he forgot JDM
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Mar 31, 2019 22:46:30 GMT -5
Pete AbrahamVerified account @peteabe 1h1 hour ago Let me try this again. #RedSox have: Bogaerts through 2025 ('22 opt out) Sale through 2024 ('22 opt out) Devers through 2023 Benintendi, Eovaldi, Price, Vazquez through 2022 Barnes, Pedroia through 2021 Betts, Bradley through 2020 lol, he forgot JDM JDM could opt out after 2019 (or more likely 2020?), so that's probably why he wasn't included, but I would think he'd be next on Dombrowski's extend list anyways - and then Mookie.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Mar 31, 2019 23:00:50 GMT -5
Hm. Certainly seems like they're setting up another 3-year window, doesn't it?
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Apr 1, 2019 3:01:05 GMT -5
Either that or they are going to permanently blast through the upper limit next year.
As far as JDM's opt out, Xander is included and has an opt out.
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mobaz
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Posts: 2,722
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Post by mobaz on Apr 1, 2019 6:34:35 GMT -5
Not sure why they are working so hard to retain the core of a .250 team! (Italics implied)
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Post by dmaineah on Apr 1, 2019 21:52:27 GMT -5
6/120 seems about right for Bogaerts age 27-32, maybe 6/132 that's it. The Sox probably let him walk because it's to rich considering others on the team approaching free agency that they'd rather sign & they think his agent probably thinks he can get him more both in years and total dollars. Nailed it back in March. Glad both sides got this done.
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Post by telson13 on Jul 3, 2019 22:25:50 GMT -5
Seems like there are some signs Rodriguez is due for a little positive regression performance-wise. He’s underperformed his peripherals/Statcast, and the variation in his CU location is an interesting development I hadn’t seen before. Seems like a good time to lock him up long-term, as his results weaken his bargaining position a bit but may belie some progress towards reaching the next level, eg a #2 or even 1a starter. fantasy.fangraphs.com/is-eduardo-rodriguez-due-for-a-breakout/It’s really just disheartening to see so many players on the team this year struggling, especially with “bad luck.” But it’s also a sign that better days may be yet to come, and given say, Luis Severino’s deal, you’d have to think the Sox could lock in a very good young starter for an extended period for roughly half (or better) his performance-determined value.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Jul 8, 2019 19:21:38 GMT -5
Chris Cotillo Verified account @chriscotillo
J.D. Martinez on his opt-out:
"Boston has been my favorite team since I was a kid. I’ve always dreamt of being there... It’s a first-class organization and obviously I’d like to be apart of it for the rest of my career. But that’s not really up to me, in a sense.”
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Post by soxfaninnj on Jul 10, 2019 9:17:00 GMT -5
How awesome is that Xander extension looking now?
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gerry
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Post by gerry on Jul 10, 2019 11:04:52 GMT -5
Chris Cotillo Verified account @chriscotillo J.D. Martinez on his opt-out: "Boston has been my favorite team since I was a kid. I’ve always dreamt of being there... It’s a first-class organization and obviously I’d like to be apart of it for the rest of my career. But that’s not really up to me, in a sense.” Actually, it is exactly up to JDM. If the Sox are his dream team, a first class organization, where the fans love him and he and his team mates have already won a WS with more to come, why would he opt out? Is he a $30M player? I hear Boras whispering in Theoden’s ear.
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Post by grandsalami on Jul 22, 2019 19:43:35 GMT -5
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Post by grandsalami on Jul 22, 2019 20:09:28 GMT -5
He has been consistent.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jul 22, 2019 21:20:55 GMT -5
That's all well and good, but his resolute determination to go to free agency is probably counterproductive to him staying with the Red Sox and also getting the most money, so there's a chance he loses on both fronts. He's going to win on the money front because I don't see a better player in free agency the next 3 years. Mookie Betts is now the cream of the crop that everyone is saving their money for. Mike Trout is a Angel for life now. The Sox will lose if they don't extend themselves for Mookie Betts, which you can REALLY question at this point for reasons I don't need to hash again.
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Post by taftreign on Jul 22, 2019 21:54:49 GMT -5
Maybe not better but close is Lindor who has a high probability of going to free agency the year after and very likely could be traded before Betts gets there. A team could also be saving money to trade for and extend Lindor. At this point I’m not sure Betts number changes that significantly if he makes it to free agency. His arb number is going to approach 25 million next season. With his mix of offense and defense he’s in that Arenado range of 8 and $260 mil no matter where he signs.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jul 22, 2019 22:02:44 GMT -5
With his mix of offense and defense he’s in that Arenado range of 8 and $260 mil no matter where he signs. Arenado took a team friendly deal to stay in Colorado, Mookie has shown no indication to do just this. In fact, he turned down 2 team friendly extensions in the past. Mookie is AT LEAST looking at better than Harper and Machado money when he makes it to free agency. Mookie is a better player than both of those guys and deserves more than them. Arenado didn't make it to free agency.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jul 22, 2019 22:28:44 GMT -5
Arenado took a team friendly deal to stay in Colorado, Mookie has shown no indication to do just this. In fact, he turned down 2 team friendly extensions in the past. Mookie is AT LEAST looking at better than Harper and Machado money when he makes it to free agency. Mookie is a better player than both of those guys and deserves more than them. Arenado didn't make it to free agency. Whether those were team friendly extensions or not remains to be seen, that's kind of my point. Harper and, to a lesser extent, Machado are just the two latest giant neon-flashing warning signs not to spend to that level on a single player. There will likely be a tremendously small market for Mookie's services regardless of how good he is the next year plus. Also, if the Red Sox sign Devers or a couple of other players to contracts after this season then the Red Sox may not even be in the market for Mookie at his desired price range in 2020. By the way, I couldn't find the number. Do recall the figure Betts was offered this offseason? He was already offered 200 million for 8 years by the Sox in their latest extension offer. Mookie comfirmed the report. Teams will be incredibly smart after overpaying for Machado and Harper? Nope unlikely. This shows the opposite. This shows that teams are wiling to pay top dollar for elite free agents while letting the likes of Kimbrel and Khechul rot in free agency.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jul 22, 2019 22:43:00 GMT -5
He was already offered 200 million for 8 years by the Sox in their latest extension offer. Mookie comfirmed the report. Teams will be incredibly smart after overpaying for Machado and Harper? Nope unlikely. This shows the opposite. This shows that teams are wiling to pay top dollar for elite free agents while letting the likes of Kimbrel and Khechul rot in free agency. The 8/$200M was offered after the 2017 season, I thought there was a rumor about what he was offered this past offseason though it may not have had a specific dollar tied to it. I think the Sox just settled on a number with Mookie on a one year deal this past off-season. It was the first time they came to a agreement on a contract. The Sox renewed Mookie 2 years prior and went to arbitration the year prior.
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