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Red Sox, Chris Sale Agree to Extension (5 years/$145 mill)
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Mar 22, 2019 23:37:37 GMT -5
For those of you who hate this move, we have no succesor to replace Sale. Groome could have been the guy, but injuries have derailed that plan. What do you mean by "replace?" And I would like to have had a shot at Cole for less and imo he'll be just as good/ near as good etc over the life of the contract. I'm not going to harp on this anymore. I love the dude Chris Sale. I just think he is going to get hurt. I don't believe his prior wearing down and his injuries from last year are going away. IMO they will pop up. The last two years and for his entire career he doesn't perform well at the end of the season. When there were debates -- even on this site - about the trade - one of the cocnerns was that eventually with his motion he'd eventually run into arm problems in the near future. Anyways, I think I would have tried to avert the risk. Hope I'm wrong. Let's go Sale!!!!!!!!!!! I understand the trepidations you have but if you don't sign Cole then what? Sale quite clearly wanted to stay in Boston. You didn't have to outbid 29 other teams to get him. With Cole, the Red Sox could go all out, but so could some other team and the Sox don't come away with him. There's not a ton of top notch free agent starting pitchers on the market and not much in the farm system. It's hard to plan for a free agent from another team. I think you have to take your chances with Sale and hope that between Bannister, Levangie, and Cora they have a plan in place to keep Sale fresh throughout the season.
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Post by rjp313jr on Mar 23, 2019 6:06:03 GMT -5
I don’t think Sale conceded years and it’s questionable if he conceded much dollars. Teams have been very cautious with long term deals for players with risk especially those 30 and older. If he made it 35 starts without the issues he’s had the last 2 years at the end... maybe but that’s a huge risk on his part. Well, let's see. Greinke is making 34 million/year. Kershaw is making about the same - would you take the next few years of Kershaw or Sale? Verlander is getting 33 million/year as he is about to be extended for a couple more years according to mlbtraderumors.com. Price is making 31 million/year. Would you say Sale is at least as good a pitcher as those guys? I'd say so. Quality-wise, yes, and it's not even close. Nobody makes 35 starts these days. 33 is about the max. Sale made about 25 last year and probably 23 were good to excellent. I'd say most of those guys got about 32 or 33 starts and probably made the same 23 good to excellent starts, but had more bad ones mixed in. I think on the open market Sale probably could get 6 years if not 7. He probably could get around $200 million, something like 32 million at 6 years. Ace pitchers are very desirable on the free agent market, even a guy like Sale who missed a month or two. Keep in mind also his whole body of work. He has been durable most of the past six or seven years. It's not like he's James Paxton or Clay Buchholz in the durability department. I'd say Sale didn't hold the Red Sox up for every last cent. He has some risk, sure, but the Red Sox also have risk. A future without Chris Sale means they have to find somebody else who can put up 20 plus good to excellent starts in a year. Good luck to them trying to find that, especially given that their farm system doesn't have the next Chris Sale in it or even a Michael Kopech and Moncada to package in a deal for the next Sale, and the free agent market only has Cole, who's not as good a pitcher on it as the only marquis pitcher available. I mean, where can you get the next Sale on the open market? Chris Sale, that's it, so the Sox did well in this deal, too. Kershaw gets 31m but only over 3 years. That’s right in line with what I said. I didn’t think Sale gave up years and he didn’t give up too many dollars. 2m a year isn’t something I consider that much. Kershaw was also a free agent and Sale wasn’t. All the other contracts you mentioned are bad comps as they were signed before this new frugal attitude started with teams and they are partially the reason why teams know it’s a bad idea. I completely disagree that 30 year old Chris Sale was likely to get 6-7 years next offseason, unless his AAV was a lot lower (think Harpers last couple years), if we assume this year is just like his last 2. You can do all the analysis you want of why his 25 starts are more valuable than someone else making 33 but ultimately the fact he can only make 25 starts is what teams are going to care about when it comes to the years. Why?Because it’s a massive red flag with regards to durability. Also, the trend is the same and it makes him pedestrian as a starter in the post season so you have to assume you aren’t getting a post season Ace for your money. That’s less than ideal. All this isn’t meant as a knock on Sale. I absolutely love the guy. I love his attitude and approach as much as his ability. Those things are why I’d still give this massive contract to him despite things that scream out at you that it’s probably a bad investment. He’s worth the roll of the dice.
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Post by voiceofreason on Mar 23, 2019 8:31:16 GMT -5
Both sides are giving in a bit based on the risk as far as I am concerned. I think Sale is a smart reasonable guy on top of all the other positive traits, like being nasty on the mound. I also think that the way they handled last season and the channels of communication that they developed make him comfortable with staying, kudos to Cora and the staff. I don't care if they baby him thru the season as long as they are winning, contending and he is healthy for Sept/Oct.
Pretty sure that sums up all of our opinions.
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Post by geostorm on Mar 23, 2019 11:01:06 GMT -5
Another assessment of the Sale deal -
"Chris Sale’s 2020-24 via ZiPS Year Age IP ERA ERA+ FIP WAR $/WAR Value 2020 31 171 2.58 171 2.40 5.6 $8.24M $46.1 M 2021 32 166.7 2.70 163 2.48 5.2 $8.49M $44.1 M 2022 33 153 2.71 163 2.50 4.8 $8.74 M $42.0 M 2023 34 143.3 2.76 160 2.59 4.4 $9.00 M $39.6 M 2024 35 132.7 2.85 155 2.60 4.0 $9.27 M $37.1 M Totals 24 $209.0 M
Even while projecting relatively low innings totals, ZiPS sees Sale as half a win more valuable over that timespan than our contract estimation tool does. Indeed, Szymborski says that only Luis Severino and German Marquez (!) project to produce more WAR over the remainder of their careers. Dan’s computer is so sweet on the southpaw that it’s probably sending heart-shaped boxes of chocolate to his locker as I type. Remember, for both of Sale’s estimates I’ve lopped off his 2019 performance, in which he projects to deliver something around $47-$49 million of value while being paid just $15 million.
Based upon that $145 million figure, either the Red Sox are significantly underpaying Sale or expecting a lot less, performance-wise, than the projection systems (for what it’s worth, Baseball Prospectus’ PECOTA system projects Sale for 22.1 WARP over the 2020-24 period). Which doesn’t seem entirely unreasonable, as they’re the ones with access to his medical file, and the risk of a career-altering injury for a pitcher is ever-present. Working backwards with the ZiPS projection and our conservative $8 million and 3% parameters, a five-year forecast of 17.0 WAR produces a valuation of $147.7 million. At $9 million per win and 5% inflation, 14.0 WAR produces a valuation of $144.2 million. "
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Mar 23, 2019 12:14:13 GMT -5
Well, let's see. Greinke is making 34 million/year. Kershaw is making about the same - would you take the next few years of Kershaw or Sale? Verlander is getting 33 million/year as he is about to be extended for a couple more years according to mlbtraderumors.com. Price is making 31 million/year. Would you say Sale is at least as good a pitcher as those guys? I'd say so. Quality-wise, yes, and it's not even close. Nobody makes 35 starts these days. 33 is about the max. Sale made about 25 last year and probably 23 were good to excellent. I'd say most of those guys got about 32 or 33 starts and probably made the same 23 good to excellent starts, but had more bad ones mixed in. I think on the open market Sale probably could get 6 years if not 7. He probably could get around $200 million, something like 32 million at 6 years. Ace pitchers are very desirable on the free agent market, even a guy like Sale who missed a month or two. Keep in mind also his whole body of work. He has been durable most of the past six or seven years. It's not like he's James Paxton or Clay Buchholz in the durability department. I'd say Sale didn't hold the Red Sox up for every last cent. He has some risk, sure, but the Red Sox also have risk. A future without Chris Sale means they have to find somebody else who can put up 20 plus good to excellent starts in a year. Good luck to them trying to find that, especially given that their farm system doesn't have the next Chris Sale in it or even a Michael Kopech and Moncada to package in a deal for the next Sale, and the free agent market only has Cole, who's not as good a pitcher on it as the only marquis pitcher available. I mean, where can you get the next Sale on the open market? Chris Sale, that's it, so the Sox did well in this deal, too. Kershaw gets 31m but only over 3 years. That’s right in line with what I said. I didn’t think Sale gave up years and he didn’t give up too many dollars. 2m a year isn’t something I consider that much. Kershaw was also a free agent and Sale wasn’t. All the other contracts you mentioned are bad comps as they were signed before this new frugal attitude started with teams and they are partially the reason why teams know it’s a bad idea. I completely disagree that 30 year old Chris Sale was likely to get 6-7 years next offseason, unless his AAV was a lot lower (think Harpers last couple years), if we assume this year is just like his last 2. You can do all the analysis you want of why his 25 starts are more valuable than someone else making 33 but ultimately the fact he can only make 25 starts is what teams are going to care about when it comes to the years. Why?Because it’s a massive red flag with regards to durability. Also, the trend is the same and it makes him pedestrian as a starter in the post season so you have to assume you aren’t getting a post season Ace for your money. That’s less than ideal. All this isn’t meant as a knock on Sale. I absolutely love the guy. I love his attitude and approach as much as his ability. Those things are why I’d still give this massive contract to him despite things that scream out at you that it’s probably a bad investment. He’s worth the roll of the dice. Umm Kershaw bwar has declined for six straight years. He's battled injuries for 3 straight years. If Sale is healthy and last year was just a regular injury with no long-term effects. Sale would have got a massive 6-7 year deal without a doubt. Elite guys have been getting paid, look at the top guy this off-season what 6 years 144 million? You are making a ton of assumptions based off one injury in a year where Sale was better than ever. Who says he can only start 25 games? You can reduce his workload to save him for the postseason without going that route. We never got a chance to see what a little extra rest would do for him because he got injured. Which yea is a worry, but let's not act like he's Kershaw yet. With Kershaw you know he's not the same pitcher and he won't ever be that guy again. You can make assumptions about Sale, but they aren't rooted in facts either. This kinda seems like a no brainer risk. Every pitcher is risky, yet only 5 years at less than David Price and Kershaw? Rather easy call in my book. I would have given pause at a longer deal, but not 5 years at below market rate and 29 million a year is below market rate.
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Post by rjp313jr on Mar 23, 2019 12:36:31 GMT -5
Kershaw gets 31m but only over 3 years. That’s right in line with what I said. I didn’t think Sale gave up years and he didn’t give up too many dollars. 2m a year isn’t something I consider that much. Kershaw was also a free agent and Sale wasn’t. All the other contracts you mentioned are bad comps as they were signed before this new frugal attitude started with teams and they are partially the reason why teams know it’s a bad idea. I completely disagree that 30 year old Chris Sale was likely to get 6-7 years next offseason, unless his AAV was a lot lower (think Harpers last couple years), if we assume this year is just like his last 2. You can do all the analysis you want of why his 25 starts are more valuable than someone else making 33 but ultimately the fact he can only make 25 starts is what teams are going to care about when it comes to the years. Why?Because it’s a massive red flag with regards to durability. Also, the trend is the same and it makes him pedestrian as a starter in the post season so you have to assume you aren’t getting a post season Ace for your money. That’s less than ideal. All this isn’t meant as a knock on Sale. I absolutely love the guy. I love his attitude and approach as much as his ability. Those things are why I’d still give this massive contract to him despite things that scream out at you that it’s probably a bad investment. He’s worth the roll of the dice. Umm Kershaw bwar has declined for six straight years. He's battled injuries for 3 straight years. If Sale is healthy and last year was just a regular injury with no long-term effects. Sale would have got a massive 6-7 year deal without a doubt. Elite guys have been getting paid, look at the top guy this off-season what 6 years 144 million? You are making a ton of assumptions based off one injury in a year where Sale was better than ever. Who says he can only start 25 games? You can reduce his workload to save him for the postseason without going that route. We never got a chance to see what a little extra rest would do for him because he got injured. Which yea is a worry, but let's not act like he's Kershaw yet. With Kershaw you know he's not the same pitcher and he won't ever be that guy again. You can make assumptions about Sale, but they aren't rooted in facts either. This kinda seems like a no brainer risk. Every pitcher is risky, yet only 5 years at less than David Price and Kershaw? Rather easy call in my book. I would have given pause at a longer deal, but not 5 years at below market rate and 29 million a year is below market rate. Last year wasn’t a one off... the year before he wore down which is why they tried to baby him to avoid a repeat. It’s also nothing new for him with the Red Sox. He’s worn down a lot over his career. He still pitched but less effectively. Last year was just the worst it’s been with him missing time.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Mar 23, 2019 13:08:52 GMT -5
Umm Kershaw bwar has declined for six straight years. He's battled injuries for 3 straight years. If Sale is healthy and last year was just a regular injury with no long-term effects. Sale would have got a massive 6-7 year deal without a doubt. Elite guys have been getting paid, look at the top guy this off-season what 6 years 144 million? You are making a ton of assumptions based off one injury in a year where Sale was better than ever. Who says he can only start 25 games? You can reduce his workload to save him for the postseason without going that route. We never got a chance to see what a little extra rest would do for him because he got injured. Which yea is a worry, but let's not act like he's Kershaw yet. With Kershaw you know he's not the same pitcher and he won't ever be that guy again. You can make assumptions about Sale, but they aren't rooted in facts either. This kinda seems like a no brainer risk. Every pitcher is risky, yet only 5 years at less than David Price and Kershaw? Rather easy call in my book. I would have given pause at a longer deal, but not 5 years at below market rate and 29 million a year is below market rate. Last year wasn’t a one off... the year before he wore down which is why they tried to baby him to avoid a repeat. It’s also nothing new for him with the Red Sox. He’s worn down a lot over his career. He still pitched but less effectively. Last year was just the worst it’s been with him missing time. Yes, it was. Check out Sale's innings the past 6 years prior to last year: a league leading 214.1 in 2017, 226.2 in 2016, 208.2 in 2015, 174 in 2014, 214.1 in 2013, and 192 in 2012. He averaged 205 innings the past six years, so spare me that he can't pitch innings, because OMG, he threw 158 last year. As far as him wearing down, most pitchers throwing those many innings do wear down as the year goes on. Perhaps that's part of the reason why Price was usually so horrible in the post-season. He, too, was usually at the top of the innings chain. The numbers don't support your Sale is fragile theory. The key to Sale is to make sure he isn't throwing 99 MPH in June when he doesn't need to. The guy can win even with a 93 MPH fastball because his slider is so good. And as far as your economic theories, which elite talent is not getting paid higher salaries? I just watched a bunch of big money extensions this week. It's the middle class of baseball that isn't getting their money or the one guy who got "discriminated" against because he's a DH, JD Martinez. If you're an elite pitcher like Sale, and he IS elite, odds are he gets $30 plus million/year and he's taking $29 million on average, and I'm sure more than 1 team would take a gamble on him giving them 3 or 4 good years if it took 6 years to sign him. The Red Sox are only committed for 5 years, or even less if he opts out. Could Sale get hurt? Sure, but any pitcher can. I think the Sox did well given what they know, which when it comes to his health, is more than we know.
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Post by rjp313jr on Mar 23, 2019 13:47:25 GMT -5
Last year wasn’t a one off... the year before he wore down which is why they tried to baby him to avoid a repeat. It’s also nothing new for him with the Red Sox. He’s worn down a lot over his career. He still pitched but less effectively. Last year was just the worst it’s been with him missing time. Yes, it was. Check out Sale's innings the past 6 years prior to last year: a league leading 214.1 in 2017, 226.2 in 2016, 208.2 in 2015, 174 in 2014, 214.1 in 2013, and 192 in 2012. He averaged 205 innings the past six years, so spare me that he can't pitch innings, because OMG, he threw 158 last year. As far as him wearing down, most pitchers throwing those many innings do wear down as the year goes on. Perhaps that's part of the reason why Price was usually so horrible in the post-season. He, too, was usually at the top of the innings chain. The numbers don't support your Sale is fragile theory. The key to Sale is to make sure he isn't throwing 99 MPH in June when he doesn't need to. The guy can win even with a 93 MPH fastball because his slider is so good. And as far as your economic theories, which elite talent is not getting paid higher salaries? I just watched a bunch of big money extensions this week. It's the middle class of baseball that isn't getting their money or the one guy who got "discriminated" against because he's a DH, JD Martinez. If you're an elite pitcher like Sale, and he IS elite, odds are he gets $30 plus million/year and he's taking $29 million on average, and I'm sure more than 1 team would take a gamble on him giving them 3 or 4 good years if it took 6 years to sign him. The Red Sox are only committed for 5 years, or even less if he opts out. Could Sale get hurt? Sure, but any pitcher can. I think the Sox did well given what they know, which when it comes to his health, is more than we know. I literally didn’t say a lot of what you just replied to so not sure really how to respond, but if it makes you feel better to act like last year came out of no where then have at it. We can just ignore the way they treated him all year with the hope of avoiding exactly what happened. They just did that because they could see the future and they tried to alter it or something. The guys great - glad they signed him but I’m not going to ignore the elephant in the room and pretend like he hasn’t had shoulder fatigue (if you don’t like the word durability) concerns.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Mar 23, 2019 14:33:33 GMT -5
NM
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Mar 24, 2019 0:11:33 GMT -5
Umm Kershaw bwar has declined for six straight years. He's battled injuries for 3 straight years. If Sale is healthy and last year was just a regular injury with no long-term effects. Sale would have got a massive 6-7 year deal without a doubt. Elite guys have been getting paid, look at the top guy this off-season what 6 years 144 million? You are making a ton of assumptions based off one injury in a year where Sale was better than ever. Who says he can only start 25 games? You can reduce his workload to save him for the postseason without going that route. We never got a chance to see what a little extra rest would do for him because he got injured. Which yea is a worry, but let's not act like he's Kershaw yet. With Kershaw you know he's not the same pitcher and he won't ever be that guy again. You can make assumptions about Sale, but they aren't rooted in facts either. This kinda seems like a no brainer risk. Every pitcher is risky, yet only 5 years at less than David Price and Kershaw? Rather easy call in my book. I would have given pause at a longer deal, but not 5 years at below market rate and 29 million a year is below market rate. Last year wasn’t a one off... the year before he wore down which is why they tried to baby him to avoid a repeat. It’s also nothing new for him with the Red Sox. He’s worn down a lot over his career. He still pitched but less effectively. Last year was just the worst it’s been with him missing time. RJP last year was an injury, not him wearing down. I don't know if your intention is to make it seem like the wearing down has and will continue to result in what happened last year. That's how you are coming off, like it's all connected and that is a known fact. He's worn down a lot. Goes from top pitcher to a 2/3, yet never got injured and gave you starts and innings. You need to try and improve that. They never got the chance this year, he actually had an injury. They never babied him as he got injured right when they would have tried new steps to keep him fresh. You can try and connect the dots, but I have little worry because he was so dominant before the injury. If he was so so I'd worry a lot more. Even a Sale that wears down is great value on this deal. Find a way to keep him fresh for end of season and playoffs and you get a steal. Lots of ways to do that and have him make a lot more than 25 starts.
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gerry
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Post by gerry on Mar 24, 2019 4:03:23 GMT -5
Sale’s contract is good for all parties, and relative to the 2020 budget, a bargain. I hope I am not needlessly stating the obvious here but haven’t seen this upthread. The Sox have Ace Chris Sale for 6 years through 2024. That’s pretty awsome. The actual cost for those 6 years is $160M. $145M (2020-2024) and $15M (2019) = $160M total.
Therefore, the actual cost (average) over the 6 years is “just” $26.7M ($160M divided by 6 years) through 2024, his age 29/30 season through his age 34/35 season. This confirms IMO that he wants to stay, and wants to win with these teammates, a solid leadership move at a time when extensions are becoming an issue for the team.
The $160M is parcelled out so the contract will have: 1.) No luxury tax implications in 2019. 2.) Max $$ of $30M at ages 31,32, 33. 3.) With an opt out following year 3 of the extension. 4.) The final two years at $27.5M. Win-Win.
I really like this guy on this team. 6 x $26.7M indeed.
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Post by rjp313jr on Mar 24, 2019 6:13:32 GMT -5
Last year wasn’t a one off... the year before he wore down which is why they tried to baby him to avoid a repeat. It’s also nothing new for him with the Red Sox. He’s worn down a lot over his career. He still pitched but less effectively. Last year was just the worst it’s been with him missing time. RJP last year was an injury, not him wearing down. I don't know if your intention is to make it seem like the wearing down has and will continue to result in what happened last year. That's how you are coming off, like it's all connected and that is a known fact. He's worn down a lot. Goes from top pitcher to a 2/3, yet never got injured and gave you starts and innings. You need to try and improve that. They never got the chance this year, he actually had an injury. They never babied him as he got injured right when they would have tried new steps to keep him fresh. You can try and connect the dots, but I have little worry because he was so dominant before the injury. If he was so so I'd worry a lot more. Even a Sale that wears down is great value on this deal. Find a way to keep him fresh for end of season and playoffs and you get a steal. Lots of ways to do that and have him make a lot more than 25 starts. Sorry, forgot shoulder inflammation and wearing down from overuse aren’t connected even though the most common cause of one is the other. My bad. Again great contract, fair for both sides, love the player, glad they took the risk he’s worth it. If he has shoulder issues again this year, not a given he will, just don’t act like it’s bad luck or out of the blue.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Mar 24, 2019 6:47:12 GMT -5
RJP last year was an injury, not him wearing down. I don't know if your intention is to make it seem like the wearing down has and will continue to result in what happened last year. That's how you are coming off, like it's all connected and that is a known fact. He's worn down a lot. Goes from top pitcher to a 2/3, yet never got injured and gave you starts and innings. You need to try and improve that. They never got the chance this year, he actually had an injury. They never babied him as he got injured right when they would have tried new steps to keep him fresh. You can try and connect the dots, but I have little worry because he was so dominant before the injury. If he was so so I'd worry a lot more. Even a Sale that wears down is great value on this deal. Find a way to keep him fresh for end of season and playoffs and you get a steal. Lots of ways to do that and have him make a lot more than 25 starts. Sorry, forgot shoulder inflammation and wearing down from overuse aren’t connected even though the most common cause of one is the other. My bad. Again great contract, fair for both sides, love the player, glad they took the risk he’s worth it. If he has shoulder issues again this year, not a given he will, just don’t act like it’s bad luck or out of the blue. I wouldn't expect Sale's health to be pristine over the next five or six years, but when you're dealing with free agency or potential free agency, you're going to have to expect with a pitcher that you're going to deal with injury issues at some point or another. You have to look at it as what if you don't make the move to bring him back after this year, will the value he gives you even with a bump in the road or two still be better than the alternative of what you have if you don't bring him back? I think even if he has a season or two where he doesn't throw 200 innings, you're still going to recoup a good amount of value from his contract. As we all know teams usually don't get the full $ value in free agency that they get when the player is in his pre-free agency period, so I hardly ask the question anymore if the Sox are going to get full value from the contract. Rather I ask whether even if it's not full value, is it better than the scenario of what happens if he doesn't come back. Looking around at the farm system or who you have to "overpay" in free agency, I'd say the Sox did well to bring back Sale in that scenario for what they brought him back for, particularly the years. If he got to free agency and had himself another top 3 Cy Young finish, I'm sure he would have gotten more $ and years than he did with this deal.
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Post by rjp313jr on Mar 24, 2019 7:12:25 GMT -5
Sorry, forgot shoulder inflammation and wearing down from overuse aren’t connected even though the most common cause of one is the other. My bad. Again great contract, fair for both sides, love the player, glad they took the risk he’s worth it. If he has shoulder issues again this year, not a given he will, just don’t act like it’s bad luck or out of the blue. I wouldn't expect Sale's health to be pristine over the next five or six years, but when you're dealing with free agency or potential free agency, you're going to have to expect with a pitcher that you're going to deal with injury issues at some point or another. You have to look at it as what if you don't make the move to bring him back after this year, will the value he gives you even with a bump in the road or two still be better than the alternative of what you have if you don't bring him back? I think even if he has a season or two where he doesn't throw 200 innings, you're still going to recoup a good amount of value from his contract. As we all know teams usually don't get the full $ value in free agency that they get when the player is in his pre-free agency period, so I hardly ask the question anymore if the Sox are going to get full value from the contract. Rather I ask whether even if it's not full value, is it better than the scenario of what happens if he doesn't come back. Looking around at the farm system or who you have to "overpay" in free agency, I'd say the Sox did well to bring back Sale in that scenario for what they brought him back for, particularly the years. If he got to free agency and had himself another top 3 Cy Young finish, I'm sure he would have gotten more $ and years than he did with this deal. I haven’t disagreed with any of this except perhaps the last sentence. Too many variables to get into that though.
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Post by voiceofreason on Mar 24, 2019 7:38:11 GMT -5
I don't know rjp, I think without a real question he would have got more if he had another top 3 Cy Young season this year. Yes their is risk but baseball GMs can be desperate for an ace like him even with the questions. He is on a HoF track and is still dominant when right the vast majority of the time. That and GMs can be stupid, one of them would blink.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Mar 24, 2019 11:25:31 GMT -5
RJP last year was an injury, not him wearing down. I don't know if your intention is to make it seem like the wearing down has and will continue to result in what happened last year. That's how you are coming off, like it's all connected and that is a known fact. He's worn down a lot. Goes from top pitcher to a 2/3, yet never got injured and gave you starts and innings. You need to try and improve that. They never got the chance this year, he actually had an injury. They never babied him as he got injured right when they would have tried new steps to keep him fresh. You can try and connect the dots, but I have little worry because he was so dominant before the injury. If he was so so I'd worry a lot more. Even a Sale that wears down is great value on this deal. Find a way to keep him fresh for end of season and playoffs and you get a steal. Lots of ways to do that and have him make a lot more than 25 starts. Sorry, forgot shoulder inflammation and wearing down from overuse aren’t connected even though the most common cause of one is the other. My bad. Again great contract, fair for both sides, love the player, glad they took the risk he’s worth it. If he has shoulder issues again this year, not a given he will, just don’t act like it’s bad luck or out of the blue. When did he wear down last year? Last three starts 19 innings zero runs 31 strikeouts before the injury. That's why we thought he was just getting extra rest and wasn't injured.
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Post by rjp313jr on Mar 24, 2019 14:08:54 GMT -5
Sorry, forgot shoulder inflammation and wearing down from overuse aren’t connected even though the most common cause of one is the other. My bad. Again great contract, fair for both sides, love the player, glad they took the risk he’s worth it. If he has shoulder issues again this year, not a given he will, just don’t act like it’s bad luck or out of the blue. When did he wear down last year? Last three starts 19 innings zero runs 31 strikeouts before the injury. That's why we thought he was just getting extra rest and wasn't injured. Probably around July 27th considering he went on the DL and didn’t make another start until August 12th because he had shoulder irritation. Sure he came back and dominated with 5 innings and 12ks vs the AAA Orioles but he was on a pitch count then went back on the DL 5 days later. I don’t know who you mean by “we” but I certainly wasn’t just thinking he was fine and turns out he wasn’t. His shoulder got fatigued causing irritation that really affected him.
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Post by jimed14 on Mar 24, 2019 14:16:32 GMT -5
The Red Sox and Sale both said that it was a mistake for him to come back for that Oriole game and it probably messed up the rest of his season. (I said the second part of that sentence)
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Post by telson13 on Mar 24, 2019 21:30:15 GMT -5
Kershaw gets 31m but only over 3 years. That’s right in line with what I said. I didn’t think Sale gave up years and he didn’t give up too many dollars. 2m a year isn’t something I consider that much. Kershaw was also a free agent and Sale wasn’t. All the other contracts you mentioned are bad comps as they were signed before this new frugal attitude started with teams and they are partially the reason why teams know it’s a bad idea. I completely disagree that 30 year old Chris Sale was likely to get 6-7 years next offseason, unless his AAV was a lot lower (think Harpers last couple years), if we assume this year is just like his last 2. You can do all the analysis you want of why his 25 starts are more valuable than someone else making 33 but ultimately the fact he can only make 25 starts is what teams are going to care about when it comes to the years. Why?Because it’s a massive red flag with regards to durability. Also, the trend is the same and it makes him pedestrian as a starter in the post season so you have to assume you aren’t getting a post season Ace for your money. That’s less than ideal. All this isn’t meant as a knock on Sale. I absolutely love the guy. I love his attitude and approach as much as his ability. Those things are why I’d still give this massive contract to him despite things that scream out at you that it’s probably a bad investment. He’s worth the roll of the dice. Umm Kershaw bwar has declined for six straight years. He's battled injuries for 3 straight years. If Sale is healthy and last year was just a regular injury with no long-term effects. Sale would have got a massive 6-7 year deal without a doubt. Elite guys have been getting paid, look at the top guy this off-season what 6 years 144 million? You are making a ton of assumptions based off one injury in a year where Sale was better than ever. Who says he can only start 25 games? You can reduce his workload to save him for the postseason without going that route. We never got a chance to see what a little extra rest would do for him because he got injured. Which yea is a worry, but let's not act like he's Kershaw yet. With Kershaw you know he's not the same pitcher and he won't ever be that guy again. You can make assumptions about Sale, but they aren't rooted in facts either. This kinda seems like a no brainer risk. Every pitcher is risky, yet only 5 years at less than David Price and Kershaw? Rather easy call in my book. I would have given pause at a longer deal, but not 5 years at below market rate and 29 million a year is below market rate. Yeah, I tend to agree provided Sale stayed essentially healthy this year. Corbin got 6/140 at essentially the same age, and I think it’s a fairly safe bet that Sale could squeeze out an additional year and $6-10M more AAV considering his *average* year is equivalent to Corbin’s best (keeping in mind Corbin’s only done it once, has a TJ under his belt, and lost FB velocity last year). I think market for Sale was probably in the 6-8 yr/$30-32M range. Personally, I LOVE this deal. And that was before reading the analysis on fg (which geostorm also posted above). It basically covers his plateau years (30-33) and the early decline (34-36); Sale’s stuff, given his SL (which is a command pitch, not a velo one), should age fairly well. Yeah, injury is a risk but it always is. They keep the best pitcher in the AL through what are likely to be his most productive years, and probably still won’t overpay for his decline, provided said decline is performance- and not health-related. He’s arguably a better pitcher than Scherzer, and he doesn’t have nearly Kershaw’s injury history. Sure, it could blow up, but I like it as a calculated risk. With Eovaldi and Price under contract and Rodriguez having 3 years of control left, the rotation looks very, very good for those three years at least. If The Evolution is as real as his results have shown in camp, he could be a 3 pitching in the 5 within 2 years, bringing some cost savings after Porcello leaves.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Mar 26, 2019 10:53:53 GMT -5
Color me confused by Buster Onley he slams the Chris Sale deal, yet loves the DeGroom deal. Compares Sale to Kershaw, but admits he's been injured for four straight years and doesn't even top 90 on his fastball sometimes. Then compares him to a 35 year old Verlander. Sale is Younger than DeGroom, only had one year of team control, not two years. I just don't get it. Like Sale would be stupid to take a 2-3 year extension.
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Post by James Dunne on Mar 26, 2019 11:01:48 GMT -5
I mean, you don't have to agree with his take, but are you honestly "confused"? The reasons to be concerned about Sale and not deGrom might be simplistic or even straight-up wrong, but I think we can all see them. Like, Olney's not being wishy-washy or intellectually dishonest or whatever you want to call it. He just thinks Sale is a much higher injury risk.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Mar 26, 2019 14:22:21 GMT -5
I mean, you don't have to agree with his take, but are you honestly "confused"? The reasons to be concerned about Sale and not deGrom might be simplistic or even straight-up wrong, but I think we can all see them. Like, Olney's not being wishy-washy or intellectually dishonest or whatever you want to call it. He just thinks Sale is a much higher injury risk. Yeah I'll take that option please. It's not so much I think Sale is super safe, I just don't know how you can watch baseball and honestly think to yourself that Jake DeGrom, or anyone else, couldn't be on the operating table two weeks from now. I mean how many times do we have to see it? Prior's mechanics are prefect, Lincecum doesn't even ice his arm, Roy Halladay runs ten miles a day... it doesn't matter! It can go at any time for any pitcher, period. Also, Sale is at least pitching on his original UCL, which means he has a significantly better chance of coming back strong from a future TJ. That's something we can actually say with a reasonable degree of certainty, unlike trying to predict injuries.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Mar 26, 2019 14:33:33 GMT -5
Did you guys read the articles? One is all about risk, other contracts, why now, why so long. With DeGroom it was nothing about Baseball just they needed to do it because the players wanted it, the owner needed it, the team needed or they'd loose the clubhouse and the GM needed it. Color me confused after what they have done and the fact he's under team control for two years that they needed it like that. It wasn't ones riskier than the other one. Which yea he is, it's the fact why he loves the DeGroom deal.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Mar 26, 2019 16:37:37 GMT -5
Did you guys read the articles? One is all about risk, other contracts, why now, why so long. With DeGroom it was nothing about Baseball just they needed to do it because the players wanted it, the owner needed it, the team needed or they'd loose the clubhouse and the GM needed it. Color me confused after what they have done and the fact he's under team control for two years that they needed it like that. It wasn't ones riskier than the other one. Which yea he is, it's the fact why he loves the DeGroom deal. The one by the guy I don't read, on the site I don't go to, that wasn't linked or quoted in the thread, and that you say is bad? Nah, didn't read it.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Mar 27, 2019 4:46:28 GMT -5
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