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Post by mredsox89 on Mar 27, 2019 12:34:27 GMT -5
That's interesting, does deferred money still count toward the tax bill for the year it's earned or is the "cap" hit also deferred? Trying to wrap my head around why, beyond the obvious benefits of deferred money. Still counts towards the contract years in terms of luxury tax unless I missed something. It's mostly a way of actual cash savings with the normal benefits of deferred money as you mentioned
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Mar 27, 2019 19:54:36 GMT -5
The typical reason for a player wanting deferred money is to spread the tax burden after he retires. If he's not retiring in five years, he could just do it again.
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Post by jimed14 on Mar 28, 2019 8:23:10 GMT -5
The typical reason for a player wanting deferred money is to spread the tax burden after he retires. If he's not retiring in five years, he could just do it again. When you're talking that much money, you're going to be at the max tax rate no matter when you collect it and pay the same overall taxes (unless tax rates go up in the future which is likely). It doesn't help a player at all unless they are too dumb to be able to not blow it all but those guys should be setting up trusts.
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Post by jimed14 on Mar 28, 2019 8:25:41 GMT -5
Still counts towards the contract years in terms of luxury tax unless I missed something. It's mostly a way of actual cash savings with the normal benefits of deferred money as you mentioned That's a weird thing to do then. Paying him straight up for the NPV value of his contract is actually better for their luxury tax situation. I'm not going to do all the crazy NPV calculations, so I'm just going to estimate that if they paid him $24M per season straight up then that's roughly the same as what his actual contract pays him when accounting for the time value of money. That would be a $5M savings toward the luxury tax limit that they kind of tossed away by paying a higher figure with deferred money. Team presumably isn't cash poor. Other than making the number bigger to appease the mlbpa, is there a good reason to do this? I'm kind of lost on a reasonable explanation. Apparently, John Henry thinks the world is going to end sometime after Sale's contract expires but some time prior to 2036? It also makes me wonder about how gun shy the team is about signing contracts of this magnitude and higher. It doesn't change their luxury tax calculations whatsoever. It does mean that the Red Sox pay him less money overall because of inflation. $10 million in 2036 is worth a lot less than $10 million in 2024 or whatever it is. That's it. Red Sox aren't poor. And Chris Sale still gets to say he's getting $29M per year even though he's not.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Mar 28, 2019 8:56:18 GMT -5
That's a weird thing to do then. Paying him straight up for the NPV value of his contract is actually better for their luxury tax situation. I'm not going to do all the crazy NPV calculations, so I'm just going to estimate that if they paid him $24M per season straight up then that's roughly the same as what his actual contract pays him when accounting for the time value of money. That would be a $5M savings toward the luxury tax limit that they kind of tossed away by paying a higher figure with deferred money. Team presumably isn't cash poor. Other than making the number bigger to appease the mlbpa, is there a good reason to do this? I'm kind of lost on a reasonable explanation. Apparently, John Henry thinks the world is going to end sometime after Sale's contract expires but some time prior to 2036? It also makes me wonder about how gun shy the team is about signing contracts of this magnitude and higher. It doesn't change their luxury tax calculations whatsoever. First time dropping in over a month and this is driving me nuts because it isn't true. As posted by Speier here. Sale will have a AAV of 15 million in 2019. Then has a AVV of 25.6 the next 3 years. This was a great deal and had to get done.
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Post by jimed14 on Mar 28, 2019 9:27:05 GMT -5
It doesn't change their luxury tax calculations whatsoever. First time dropping in over a month and this is driving me nuts because it isn't true. As posted by Speier here. Sale will have a AAV of 15 million in 2019. Then has a AVV of 25.6 the next 3 years. This was a great deal and had to get done. Interesting, because that's not what they did with Scherzer's deal. I have no idea how they came up with that math. And why wouldn't it be 25.6 over 5 years? It's a 5 year deal not 3. And where does 25.6 come from? It's not 145/5. It's not 118.5/5. This is ripe for abuse now if it's true.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Mar 28, 2019 9:35:23 GMT -5
I think it's only 25.6 for 3 years because of the opt out later after year 3, but it could be for 5 years. I forget how that works.
Just pointing out that Sale took one for the team here. He took a contract that helped out their AAV situation for future contracts because Chris Sale values winning and having premier talent around him. One of the reasons why I wanted to keep the guy in the first place and keep him potentially from going to the Yankees.
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Post by jimed14 on Mar 28, 2019 9:49:55 GMT -5
I think it's only 25.6 for 3 years because of the opt out later after year 3, but it could be for 5 years. I forget how that works. Just pointing out that Sale took one for the team here. He took a contract that helped out their AAV situation for future contracts because Chris Sale values winning and having premier talent around him. One of the reasons why I wanted to keep the guy in the first place and keep him potentially from going to the Yankees. I still don't believe that it's a $25.6M cap hit. There is no math to support it that I can figure out. I want to know where that # comes from.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Mar 28, 2019 9:52:57 GMT -5
I think it's only 25.6 for 3 years because of the opt out later after year 3, but it could be for 5 years. I forget how that works. Just pointing out that Sale took one for the team here. He took a contract that helped out their AAV situation for future contracts because Chris Sale values winning and having premier talent around him. One of the reasons why I wanted to keep the guy in the first place and keep him potentially from going to the Yankees. I still don't believe that it's a $25.6M cap hit. There is no math to support it that I can figure out. I want to know where that # comes from. Ask Alex Speier. He would know better than any of us. I trust his tweets more than anyone else. No reason for him to lie about this.
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Post by jimed14 on Mar 28, 2019 9:58:45 GMT -5
I still don't believe that it's a $25.6M cap hit. There is no math to support it that I can figure out. I want to know where that # comes from. Ask Alex Speier. He would know better than any of us. I trust his tweets more than anyone else. No reason for him to lie about this. I did. I doubt he'll answer. I'm still not going to accept it before I see the math. $25.6M *5 = $128M, not $118.5M.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Mar 28, 2019 10:03:13 GMT -5
Ask Alex Speier. He would know better than any of us. I trust his tweets more than anyone else. No reason for him to lie about this. I did. I doubt he'll answer. I'm still not going to accept it before I see the math. Speier usually answers and he did to your question.
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Post by jimed14 on Mar 28, 2019 10:06:19 GMT -5
OK, so Nightengale threw me off.
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Post by dmaineah on Aug 4, 2019 4:48:10 GMT -5
What a waste of money.
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Post by Addam603 on Aug 4, 2019 5:27:11 GMT -5
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Post by dmaineah on Aug 4, 2019 8:05:51 GMT -5
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Post by manfred on Aug 4, 2019 8:43:37 GMT -5
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Post by rjp313jr on Aug 4, 2019 9:55:33 GMT -5
It was a risky extension at the time since he was coming off an injury and you didn’t get much of if any discount and in hindsight it’s clear they should have waited. However, it’s too soon to call it a waste. I’m still happy he’s signed up for 5 more years.
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Post by manfred on Aug 4, 2019 11:28:37 GMT -5
The guy has had a down year. Fine. And signing pitchers is always a risk. Also fine. But: if they waited and he walked, you’d be looking at a Lester — or even Clemens — scenario. Then the grousing would go the other way.
And speaking of Lester and Clemens: those guys had down years in their careers and bounced back. I suspect Sale will, too.
Finally: I like Sale long term more than Price, but Price has actually been pretty good. Price was a hard thrower who relied on velocity. He doesn’t have a plus pitch that changes planes much (no great slider or curve). Sale does. I suspect that when the day comes that Sale really can’t get more than 90/91 on his fastball he can adjust and still be a good pitcher.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Aug 4, 2019 11:55:10 GMT -5
Especially since that extension hasn't technically started. He may ultimately be correct, Sale has been pretty bad this year, but this might be a year or two premature. That is... not helping me feel any better about this extension.
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Post by soxjim on Aug 4, 2019 12:06:35 GMT -5
The guy has had a down year. Fine. And signing pitchers is always a risk. Also fine. But: if they waited and he walked, you’d be looking at a Lester — or even Clemens — scenario. Then the grousing would go the other way. And speaking of Lester and Clemens: those guys had down years in their careers and bounced back. I suspect Sale will, too. Finally: I like Sale long term more than Price, but Price has actually been pretty good. Price was a hard thrower who relied on velocity. He doesn’t have a plus pitch that changes planes much (no great slider or curve). Sale does. I suspect that when the day comes that Sale really can’t get more than 90/91 on his fastball he can adjust and still be a good pitcher. That's always a risk too. But the Sox seem to be the team that is willing to pay the most nowadays and I don't share it's going to be down just for this year. I hope I'm wrong. Pray I'm wrong. I think Sale has maybe one good year left in him after that it's mediocrity or injury or both. His f/b is going to decline. Without his f/b we don't need to pay him this much. The sidearm action without the high velocity f/b and he never has had that good of endurance -- it doesn't look good. OFC not willing to throw in the towel but I think money could have been spent wiser vs what we're going to get in the future.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Aug 4, 2019 12:50:09 GMT -5
I don't see any huge red flags in the numbers. Like he has a 1.1 WHIP and over 13 strikeouts per nine innings. His FIP is much better than his ERA. It's just the home runs and extra hits. Like he can be good and then just has a very bad inning. He's not Cashner or Porcello that just get hit on every inning it seems. Not really worried like I was to start the year. Inaldo don't mind the contract since Porcello got 4 years 100 million like five years ago and Price got 7 years what 217 million four years ago.
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Aug 4, 2019 13:02:37 GMT -5
I don't see any huge red flags in the numbers. Like he has a 1.1 WHIP and over 13 strikeouts per nine innings. His FIP is much better than his ERA. It's just the home runs and extra hits. Like he can be good and then just has a very bad inning. He's not Cashner or Porcello that just get hit on every inning it seems. Not really worried like I was to start the year. Inaldo don't mind the contract since Porcello got 4 years 100 million like five years ago and Price got 7 years what 217 million four years ago. Lower velocity and spotty command at times and the fact they came into the season with a babying plan doesn't make me feel great about long term prognosis. I'm sure he'll be better next year, but if everything is timing, he'd come at a much better discount if they waited the year. Hopefully he does live up to the contract, but it could have been much cheaper.
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Post by manfred on Aug 4, 2019 13:06:47 GMT -5
I don't see any huge red flags in the numbers. Like he has a 1.1 WHIP and over 13 strikeouts per nine innings. His FIP is much better than his ERA. It's just the home runs and extra hits. Like he can be good and then just has a very bad inning. He's not Cashner or Porcello that just get hit on every inning it seems. Not really worried like I was to start the year. Inaldo don't mind the contract since Porcello got 4 years 100 million like five years ago and Price got 7 years what 217 million four years ago. Lower velocity and spotty command at times and the fact they came into the season with a babying plan doesn't make me feel great about long term prognosis. I'm sure he'll be better next year, but if everything is timing, he'd come at a much better discount if they waited the year. Hopefully he does live up to the contract, but it could have been much cheaper. It amazes me the conversations at cross purposes. Half the board says the Sox are too cheap; others say signing a guy who’d averaged 6 WAR the previous 3 seasons was an overspend. Tough crowd.
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Aug 4, 2019 13:19:13 GMT -5
Lower velocity and spotty command at times and the fact they came into the season with a babying plan doesn't make me feel great about long term prognosis. I'm sure he'll be better next year, but if everything is timing, he'd come at a much better discount if they waited the year. Hopefully he does live up to the contract, but it could have been much cheaper. It amazes me the conversations at cross purposes. Half the board says the Sox are too cheap; others say signing a guy who’d averaged 6 WAR the previous 3 seasons was an overspend. Tough crowd. There's only one person who thinks Henry is cheap without a larger conversation that all baseball owners are cheap. Chris Sale broke down at the end of the year and the year before faded late in the season. He will be 31 when his extension starts. If the market was there for starting pitching, David Price would have opted out. The AAV is about what I would have expected him to get in free agency so they likely saved themselves on the years if he was pitching like vintage Chris Sale. The risk/reward to me would have been to wait.
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Post by incandenza on Aug 4, 2019 13:37:27 GMT -5
One thing I'd ask is: if they hadn't signed Sale, where were they going to get starting pitching from? They could go all in on Gerrit Cole, but there's no guarantee they'd win a bidding war against the Yankees, et al. And to win that bidding war is probably going to require a 7-year deal at least, right? And Cole is only 1.5 years younger than Sale.
And beyond that... find me a free agent starter who has the potential to be as elite as Sale, and at equal or lesser risk. They just aren't out there.
The other option would be to trade prospects for a cost-controlled young starter. But we don't have the prospects to do that - we already used them to acquire Chris Sale!
So that's the concrete question I'd ask: if you think it would have been better not to sign Sale, what's your strategy for building the Sox' starting rotation?
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