Reports say Kimbrel is looking for a deal in the Davis and Britton range three years 39 to 52 million. I don't care what you think of Kimbrel that is a fair deal. That report came out like 12 hours after one saying he still wanted a record setting deal. So color me confused why no team has signed him yet.
Remember when the internet went insane over a pitch that Jose Alvarado threw? That guy, as far as I can tell, signed for nothing, was never a prospect of note, and makes the league minimum. Kimbrel's asking price is roughly twenty-five times the AAV.
I just don't get this logic, there aren't a ton of those guys. It's not like any team that needs bullpen help can just get a guy like him. Nevermind in parts of three seasons he has the same bwar as Kimbrel did last year and it wasn't even a great year for Kimbrel. Unless you think Kimbrel is toast as a pitcher it makes zero sense. I can get not wanting to give a massive long-term deal or pay so so guys three year deals. I don't get not giving Kimbrel around 13 million for three years. He's good enough to make a massive effect on a bunch of teams.
Reports say Kimbrel is looking for a deal in the Davis and Britton range three years 39 to 52 million. I don't care what you think of Kimbrel that is a fair deal. That report came out like 12 hours after one saying he still wanted a record setting deal. So color me confused why no team has signed him yet.
I remarked elsewhere how shocked I am he’s still out there. Just bizarre. He’s absolutely worth 3/45 or whatever.
Reports say Kimbrel is looking for a deal in the Davis and Britton range three years 39 to 52 million. I don't care what you think of Kimbrel that is a fair deal. That report came out like 12 hours after one saying he still wanted a record setting deal. So color me confused why no team has signed him yet.
Remember when the internet went insane over a pitch that Jose Alvarado threw? That guy, as far as I can tell, signed for nothing, was never a prospect of note, and makes the league minimum. Kimbrel's asking price is roughly twenty-five times the AAV.
That was one pitch, though. Kimbrel has a long proven track record that few others can touch. I find it strange, that if his asking price is truly in the 3 year $40 million range that nobody jumped on it.
I'm going to guess that wasn't his asking price during spring training, but perhaps it's around that now, and if so, teams are waiting until the draft happens so they don't have to give up a pick, and if that's the case I anticipate somebody will make him their big 2nd half bullpen acquisition.
Don't take it so literally, it's just one example of a thousand of elite or near-elite bullpen talent coming out of nowhere. Obviously that one pitch is not the reason Kimbrel hasn't signed. But again, the guy who threw that pitch is getting paid 1/25th of what Kimbrel is asking.
Post by philsbosoxfan on Apr 14, 2019 23:44:29 GMT -5
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Don't take it so literally, it's just one example of a thousand of elite or near-elite bullpen talent coming out of nowhere. Obviously that one pitch is not the reason Kimbrel hasn't signed. But again, the guy who threw that pitch is getting paid 1/25th of what Kimbrel is asking.
A thousand? There aren't a ton of elite to near elite bullpen arms in any given year looking at all relievers. You get a handful of guys that come out of no where each year to reach that level every year. Like go look up the list of relievers that have had two plus bwar the last two years. It's a crazy small list. Elite or close to elite relievers are rare and you keep acting like there are just tons of them coming from no name guys every year. It happens, like the Red Sox found Brasier, yet who was the last guy before him? The odds still say former top starter prospects like Barnes and Miller are the likely guys and even those guys are crazy risky. It took those two years to develop into those type of pitchers after being made relievers.
So you need bullpen help and aren't one of a handful of teams that finds a diamond in the rough, what do you do? Do you really think 13 million is too much to pay for two bwar? Like I can't believe we are even having this discussion when Kimbrel has been one of the best relievers the game has ever seen. I'd rather sign a Kimbrel than trade for a Thornburg, it's only money and a ton of teams have a lot of it they can spend. I'm socked that a rebuilding team isn't willing to gamble on him to flip him at the deadline. The Yankees halfway rebuilt that team flipping two elite relievers for massive prospect packages. Which seems rather foolish if there are thousands of elite or near elite guys coming out of no where all the time.😀
Don't take it so literally, it's just one example of a thousand of elite or near-elite bullpen talent coming out of nowhere. Obviously that one pitch is not the reason Kimbrel hasn't signed. But again, the guy who threw that pitch is getting paid 1/25th of what Kimbrel is asking.
Right, but the other end of that spectrum is a team like the Nationals, ostensibly trying to compete, giving pitches to Trevor Rosenthal and posting a team bullpen ERA of 7.75 so far this year. There are something like 350 to 400 bullpen roster spots, and Kimbrel upside is much, much higher than almost all of the people filling them (and his downside realistically isn't that much worse).
I'm a Kimbrel skeptic, but if he's coming down to a three-year deal, there are a lot of teams that would be a lot better with him there.
Last Edit: Apr 15, 2019 7:17:45 GMT -5 by James Dunne
Post by Chris Hatfield on Apr 15, 2019 7:23:43 GMT -5
FWIW, Jim "Ralph" Bowden over at The Athletic posted that Keuchel's and Kimbrel's demands are still kind of high, and that their agents scared teams off with unrealistic initial asks:
When the market didn’t develop for Kimbrel like Meter thought it would, he stuck to his guns and, even as late as March, was still seeking a five-year pact in the $100 million range. It was a clear miscalculation of Kimbrel’s true market value, and not consistent with the actual offers or ranges teams had given him.
...
Plenty of teams could really use Kimbrel this year, including the Braves, Brewers, Mariners, Indians, Phillies, Nationals, Rays, Twins, Cubs and Cardinals. Many of these teams have spoken to Meter. However, none of them have expressed interest in a five- or six-year deal, or anything close to what Jansen or Chapman got. Some teams have made specific offers; others have communicated a “range” that they would play at. Now, most just want to be the team that gets the bargain basement deal everyone is expecting will happen at some point.
Enormous grain of salt with Ralph, but I think the takeaway here is that there is something of a public negotiation going on with the differing reports on Kimbrel's ask.
Last Edit: Apr 15, 2019 7:24:12 GMT -5 by Chris Hatfield
"We really don't need the whole commercial break/warm-up routine every time a new reliever comes into the game. It certainly made sense in 1884 when they only switched pitchers when the starter was attacked by pickaxe or caught consumption, and no reliever was warming up because he was busy gambling and drinking." - JD
I still think I'm going to wake up and say "I shouldn't listen to the podcast before bed, I dreamed the Sox signed a guy from Curaçao named Charlie Zink." - KOC
Don't take it so literally, it's just one example of a thousand of elite or near-elite bullpen talent coming out of nowhere. Obviously that one pitch is not the reason Kimbrel hasn't signed. But again, the guy who threw that pitch is getting paid 1/25th of what Kimbrel is asking.
Right, but the other end of that spectrum is a team like the Nationals, ostensibly trying to compete, giving pitches to Trevor Rosenthal and posting a team bullpen ERA of 7.75 so far this year. There are something like 350 to 400 bullpen roster spots, and Kimbrel upside is much, much higher than almost all of the people filling them (and his downside realistically isn't that much worse).
I'm a Kimbrel skeptic, but if he's coming down to a three-year deal, there are a lot of teams that would be a lot better with him there.
Upside in terms of performance, yes, but Kimbrel has almost no potential to "turn a profit" so to speak. You're never going to trade a Kimbrel contract for any significant return. Whereas, for instance, if the Red Sox fall out of contention but Brasier is pitching well, you might actually get a useful piece in exchange all his years of cheap control.
Ok, but the Nationals are competitive, and why should they care about that? Well, they shouldn't, but maybe their internal evaluations on Kimbrel aren't so great, maybe he doesn't fit into their long term plans budget-wise, maybe they just really like Doolittle and they don't want to invite the tension of bringing in a more "established" closer who feels like he deserves the role. There's all sorts of reasons why an individual team might not want Kimbrel despite an apparent need for bullpen help.
So, there's only 30 teams. You've got your Royals and your White Sox and your Padres and Giants and Orioles and about ten others who have no particular interest in being better this year anyway, and if anything have an interest in being as bad as possible. To the extent that they want to improve their bullpens, they 100% want to find the Alvarados and Brasiers of the world. They're certainly not about to give up a pick and the associated slot money for Kimbrel. Then you've got your Astros and Dodgers who've built such incredible depth that they hardly have enough playing time for the guys they already have*. Then you've got the teams that might have a use for him but just don't have the budget, which in the weird alternative financial reality that MLB has created, includes not only the Rays and the As, but the Red Sox and Cubs.
Finally, we're left with the teams that wanted bullpen help and had the budget to afford premium FAs, your Phillies and Yankees. Those teams only have so many roster spots, and they filled them with FAs who had similar projections as Kimbrel, who had lower contract demands, less "proven closer" baggage, and weren't causing heart attacks all October.
And yeah, maybe Washington still should sign him, but when you start whittling away potential buyers to the extent that I've described here, you're in a situation where one or two teams can just decide they don't like the cut of his jib or whatever, and there's essentially no market for the player.
*Please do not ask me to explain the Joe Kelly signing.
Right, but the other end of that spectrum is a team like the Nationals, ostensibly trying to compete, giving pitches to Trevor Rosenthal and posting a team bullpen ERA of 7.75 so far this year. There are something like 350 to 400 bullpen roster spots, and Kimbrel upside is much, much higher than almost all of the people filling them (and his downside realistically isn't that much worse).
I'm a Kimbrel skeptic, but if he's coming down to a three-year deal, there are a lot of teams that would be a lot better with him there.
Upside in terms of performance, yes, but Kimbrel has almost no potential to "turn a profit" so to speak. You're never going to trade a Kimbrel contract for any significant return. Whereas, for instance, if the Red Sox fall out of contention but Brasier is pitching well, you might actually get a useful piece in exchange all his years of cheap control.
Ok, but the Nationals are competitive, and why should they care about that? Well, they shouldn't, but maybe their internal evaluations on Kimbrel aren't so great, maybe he doesn't fit into their long term plans budget-wise, maybe they just really like Doolittle and they don't want to invite the tension of bringing in a more "established" closer who feels like he deserves the role. There's all sorts of reasons why an individual team might not want Kimbrel despite an apparent need for bullpen help.
So, there's only 30 teams. You've got your Royals and your White Sox and your Padres and Giants and Orioles and about ten others who have no particular interest in being better this year anyway, and if anything have an interest in being as bad as possible. To the extent that they want to improve their bullpens, they 100% want to find the Alvarados and Brasiers of the world. They're certainly not about to give up a pick and the associated slot money for Kimbrel. Then you've got your Astros and Dodgers who've built such incredible depth that they hardly have enough playing time for the guys they already have*. Then you've got the teams that might have a use for him but just don't have the budget, which in the weird alternative financial reality that MLB has created, includes not only the Rays and the As, but the Red Sox and Cubs.
Finally, we're left with the teams that wanted bullpen help and had the budget to afford premium FAs, your Phillies and Yankees. Those teams only have so many roster spots, and they filled them with FAs who had similar projections as Kimbrel, who had lower contract demands, less "proven closer" baggage, and weren't causing heart attacks all October.
And yeah, maybe Washington still should sign him, but when you start whittling away potential buyers to the extent that I've described here, you're in a situation where one or two teams can just decide they don't like the cut of his jib or whatever, and there's essentially no market for the player.
*Please do not ask me to explain the Joe Kelly signing.
I would add to this the thing that always drove me a little nuts about Kimbrel: he turns into a pumpkin if you use him in any situation other than a clean-inning save opportunity, which means you can't use him in the highest-leverage situations. Especially with teams evolving toward a more dynamic and fluid approach to using their pitchers, that's another reason to be reticent to take a relatively big financial risk with him.
our pitching has really struggled...but when you look around the league there are so many pitchers with great track records struggling this year. Case in point, this Monday night baseball game Mets-Phillies, Syndeergard vs Nola and it's 5 - 5 in the 4th inning as I type. Some have speculated the ball has a different feel to it, but something is up I think...
Post by James Dunne on Apr 18, 2019 9:26:26 GMT -5
Through three starts, Casey Mize has allowed one run on six hits in 18 innings, with 21 strikeouts and one walk. If the Tigers end up near contention in that crummy division, they're going to have an interesting decision in the second half.
I can’t get over Sale pitching awful and Moncada hitting like an MVP
Even if Sale breaks down and has a 12 ERA every year for the rest of his contract and Yoan Moncada hits like he's Mickey Mantle (I'm not sold on him 1 bit yet, Margot too) it was still the right trade to make and I'd still make it 1000 out of 1000 times. You got a ring. If they didn't win last year, then you could look back at it and have second thoughts.
Post by James Dunne on Apr 18, 2019 10:34:18 GMT -5
I AM sold on Moncada, and I'd still do the trade every time. He could end up a Hall of Famer, and it was worth it. Like, Bagwell for Anderson is pretty different if Anderson is the ace pitcher as the Red Sox win the division in 1991 and World Series in 1992.
Last Edit: Apr 18, 2019 10:37:31 GMT -5 by James Dunne
The Austin Meadows from TB whom has 6 home runs and well above .300 average...is that the same Meadows from the Pirates whom this entire forum wanted us to draft in 2013 over Trey Ball?
Post by Chris Hatfield on Apr 18, 2019 15:28:18 GMT -5
Hm. Name is similar, but he hasn't been mentioned on this forum in years
"We really don't need the whole commercial break/warm-up routine every time a new reliever comes into the game. It certainly made sense in 1884 when they only switched pitchers when the starter was attacked by pickaxe or caught consumption, and no reliever was warming up because he was busy gambling and drinking." - JD
I still think I'm going to wake up and say "I shouldn't listen to the podcast before bed, I dreamed the Sox signed a guy from Curaçao named Charlie Zink." - KOC