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Post by sarasoxer on Apr 17, 2019 20:14:20 GMT -5
Well, of course your comment has merit. Trained scouts are better equipped to judge talent. OTOH, let's look at how these professionals have done on high Sox picks. Top picks who have flamed over last 10 years or so...#1s Trey Ball, Deven Marrero, Kolbrin Vitek, Bryce Brentz, Anthony Ranaudo, Nick Hagadone, Jason Place, Rey Fuentes..#2s Sam Travis, Cole Brannen (but he is up to .149), Teddy Stankiewicz. And who can forget the less than immortal, Lars. I'm pretty sure all were high ranked at one point on this site too. Professional scouting is inexact. I remember watching Lars take batting practice with Reddick and a couple of others. He was by far the least impressive with a languid swing that produced little of authority. Sure it was one day, only BP and I'm not a scout. But I reported it FWIW. So I think it's A-OK for fans to watch drafted players and give their initial observations. Lots of people do so here. It's not hard to form a valid opinion on arm strength, running speed and even appearance of coordination/lack. Sure you take amateur reads with a grain, but I find them of interest. Yes I'm sure the fan base would do a much better job than the draft team since hindsight is always 20/20. Betts, JBJ, Benny, Pedroia, Xander, Devers, Vazquez, Swihart (RIP). I find the observations of interest as well but to make a judgement based on 24 games (including spring training) after almost a year off for a high school kid seeing pitching like he's never seen before strikes me as being pretty bizarre. Boy, you sure took that out of context. I said of course professional scouts are better at judging talent than us armchair guys....But, baseball being what it is, even professionals misjudge, and frequently...hindsight or not. It seems harder in baseball to be accurate than football for instance, where it measures every physical trait to the enth degree. That doesn't preclude my interest in reading initial first hand assessments of others here on more obvious physical traits...e.g. size, arm strength for infield, outfield, pitching, running speed. Now some here confidently venture into harder to assess things like pitch movement or spin rates, or holes in a minor leaguer's swing etc. I try to stay away from that or I might couch things as IMO or it appears. Certainly Casas has had little time...sss in the extreme. In a season or so, we'll have a better idea. Steve had merely mentioned that Casas appeared stiff in the field and not a fast runner. If so, that could change. Like Steve, I remember watching Lin and thinking he was awfully undersized and just slapped at the ball. He has physically matured and altered batting approach. Great. I don't think anyone would/could be making blanket judgments or writing Casas off after 26 games or whatever. Hey, I'm glad to see some size in the organization.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Apr 17, 2019 20:21:33 GMT -5
I'm mostly reacting to the initial statement: Two more strikeouts tonight. How many games do we have to wait before we can legitimately question whether this guy has issue in making contact?
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Post by RedSoxStats on Apr 18, 2019 12:47:56 GMT -5
Casas is swinging at missing at 15.7% of pitches, league average is 13.7%, and he's taking 40% balls.
Dalbac was at 14.5% and taking 40% balls, but he was 22, after college and Lowell.
Feel like his knowledge of the zone has been impressive. Going to be all about his adjustments for a few years.
Do admit that his stand seems uncomfortably wide.
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Post by ephus on Apr 18, 2019 13:51:23 GMT -5
(Lights up cigar and leans back in chair) Back in '98 and '99 I went to a lot of Savannah Sand Gnats games. Watched a kid down there strike out 139 times while batting .239 in '98. The next year he fanned 151 times, but upped his batting average to .292. He went on to have a career WAR of 24.8. For sure I am cherry picking an outlier, but let's give this kid a chance. Hold on, I need to go chase some kids off my lawn.
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Post by carmenfanzone on Apr 26, 2019 8:24:12 GMT -5
Nice day for Casas. Let us hope he is figuring it out and that we will see more days like yesterday.
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Post by James Dunne on Apr 26, 2019 8:34:03 GMT -5
(Lights up cigar and leans back in chair) Back in '98 and '99 I went to a lot of Savannah Sand Gnats games. Watched a kid down there strike out 139 times while batting .239 in '98. The next year he fanned 151 times, but upped his batting average to .292. He went on to have a career WAR of 24.8. For sure I am cherry picking an outlier, but let's give this kid a chance. Hold on, I need to go chase some kids off my lawn. I had to look that one up. I won't spoil it for anyone but that's actually not a bad comp for Casas. Casas is bigger (if you can believe it) and a better natural athlete, so I think there's a chance he's a much better defensive first baseman.
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Post by manfred on Apr 26, 2019 9:33:12 GMT -5
(Lights up cigar and leans back in chair) Back in '98 and '99 I went to a lot of Savannah Sand Gnats games. Watched a kid down there strike out 139 times while batting .239 in '98. The next year he fanned 151 times, but upped his batting average to .292. He went on to have a career WAR of 24.8. For sure I am cherry picking an outlier, but let's give this kid a chance. Hold on, I need to go chase some kids off my lawn. I had to look that one up. I won't spoil it for anyone but that's actually not a bad comp for Casas. Casas is bigger (if you can believe it) and a better natural athlete, so I think there's a chance he's a much better defensive first baseman. Holy cow, if he has peak years like, er, that feller... that would be incredible. I just hope if he can even approach that level he can maintain it a bit longer.
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Post by jimed14 on Apr 26, 2019 9:44:38 GMT -5
Speaking of the Savannah Sand Gnats...
That was 2002, so just missed having the mystery player there.
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Post by rismith on May 7, 2019 7:10:30 GMT -5
Seems like he is settling down and on a good streak lately. I found this video of a fairly recent period and it seems he is far less "crouched" than the earlier videos we discussed and more like his high school prospect stance. Maybe that is why the improvement has come recently....
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Post by huskies15 on May 7, 2019 8:16:15 GMT -5
Looks like he completely changes his swing/stance with two strikes. The crouch comes back and the leg lift leaves when he gets to two strikes. Interesting.
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Post by jimed14 on May 7, 2019 8:41:23 GMT -5
It's interesting that he's choking up on the bat too. He definitely has a good feel for the strike zone and has a swing that will take advantage of the Green Monster a lot.
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Post by vermontsox1 on May 8, 2019 21:31:28 GMT -5
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Post by splendidsplinter on May 9, 2019 10:11:40 GMT -5
Casas hits a line drive home run Over the batter’s eye in Rome, Georgia. Announcer says it is the first one this year over the eye. Typically, fly balls don’t go out to center there.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on May 9, 2019 17:05:37 GMT -5
Casas hits a line drive home run Over the batter’s eye in Rome, Georgia. Announcer says it is the first one this year over the eye. Typically, fly balls don’t go out to center there. Semantics but more like the typical deep flyball HR than line drive HR. The ball traveled 419 feet according to the announcer and was off a decent left handed pitcher. The announcer mentioned several times that the ball doesn't travel well there in center or left. He said the ball travels well to RF.
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radiohix
Veteran
'At the end of the day, we bang. We bang. We're going to swing.' Alex Verdugo
Posts: 6,233
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Post by radiohix on May 17, 2019 15:29:21 GMT -5
I'm looking at this kid splits and they are absolutely off the charts! A teenager in his first taste of professional baseball keeps his patient approach, cuts his strikeouts by more than half WHILE ALSO MORE THAN DOUBLING HIS POWER NUMBERS!!! Month | April | May | PAs | 88 | 59 | BB% | 10.2% | 10.2% | K% | 35.2% | 15.3% | IsoP | .156 | .333 |
I know we're still dealing with a sss but what he's doing is unbelievably remarkable! Prospecting porn right here! Add: Didn't saw that before posting my comment but Alex Speier wrote about it in the Globe today.
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Post by huskies15 on May 29, 2019 10:16:59 GMT -5
Another HR last night for Casas. Once Chavis graduates from prospect status I think that Casas is easily the new number 1 in the system.
Darwinzon seems less and less likely to stick as a starter, and it appears that Casas might really be a special hitter. First season as a pro, and I am very very impressed.
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radiohix
Veteran
'At the end of the day, we bang. We bang. We're going to swing.' Alex Verdugo
Posts: 6,233
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Post by radiohix on May 31, 2019 1:51:49 GMT -5
His line in May is absolutely flawless: .326/.402/.674 The strikeouts concerns from his first month? He put them to rest by sporting a solid 18.7% K rate and it's not like he CJ Chatham'd his way into those numbers by swinging early and slapping the ball into play. He kept working counts as his very solid 11.2% BB rate indicates while punishing pitches he liked with an elite .348 IsoP. Stud.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on May 31, 2019 4:26:44 GMT -5
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Post by sarasoxer on May 31, 2019 6:37:20 GMT -5
Wow. A guy that chokes up on the bat! Now there's something almost extinct in baseball.....and a power hitter at that.
I'd like to see more of that, especially with two strikes.....another something that the great Ted Williams advocated.
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Post by SALNotes on May 31, 2019 8:39:09 GMT -5
I watched a long at bat of his last night end in a line drive over the bullpen in RF. That was a missile. He's a grinder in there, sees a lot of pitches. The crouch is definitely less pronounced then in my April looks.
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Post by RedSoxStats on May 31, 2019 9:03:07 GMT -5
Man, his stance and load looks so much better
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Post by huskies15 on May 31, 2019 13:12:36 GMT -5
Wow. Fast hands through that HR. That looks so much better than the earlier looks.
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Post by soxfan511 on May 31, 2019 14:45:00 GMT -5
Monster. What’s the distance and exo of his home runs?
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Post by ramireja on May 31, 2019 17:39:49 GMT -5
Name-Org | Pick # | Bonus
| PAs
| BA
| HR
| IsoP
| BB%
| K%
| wRC+
| SB/CS | Jarred Kelenic - SEA | 6 | $4.5M | 215 | .303 | 10 | .261 | 11.6 | 20.9 | 172 | 7/4 | Connor Scott - MIA | 13 | $4.0M | 197 | .212 | 2 | .112 | 8.6 | 22.3 | 75 | 11/6 | Jordyn Adams - LAA | 17 | $4.1M | 195 | .234 | 4 | .111 | 10.8 | 26.2 | 96 | 5/1 | Nolan Gorman - STL | 19 | $3.2M | 210 | .275 | 9 | .242 | 11.4 | 24.8 | 152 | 2/0 | Brice Turang - MIL | 21 | $3.4M | 219 | .319 | 1 | .099 | 15.1 | 16.9 | 142 | 13/3 | Triston Casas - BOS | 26 | $2.5M | 195 | .271 | 10 | .259 | 10.8 | 26.2 | 145 | 2/2 | Bo Naylor - CLE | 29 | $2.6M | 156 | .207 | 1 | .111 | 11.5 | 26.9 | 78 | 2/2 | Xavier Edwards - SDP | 38 | $2.6M | 202 | .371 | 0 | .056 | 9.9 | 9.4 | 147 | 14/7 | Grant Lavigne - COL | 42 | $2.0M | 201 | .228 | 4 | .132 | 15.9 | 27.9 | 112 | 3/2 | Parker Meadows - DET | 44 | $2.5M | 198 | .216 | 3 | .096 | 11.1 | 29.3 | 81 | 6/3 | Alek Thomas - ARI | 63 | $1.2M | 191 | .304 | 5 | .185 | 11.5 | 21.5 | 150 | 5/3 | Will Banfield - MIA | 69 | $1.8M | 173 | .215 | 4 | .135 | 3.5 | 30.1 | 71 | 0/0 | Cole Roederer - CHC | 77 | $1.2M | 157 | .216 | 2 | .122 | 9.6 | 26.8 | 79 | 5/2 | Jonathan Ornelas - TEX | 91 | $600K | 188 | .293 | 4 | .144 | 9.0 | 23.4 | 130 | 8/1 | Mike Siani - CIN | 109 | $2.0M | 190 | .195 | 3 | .116 | 9.5 | 22.1 | 82 | 10/5 | Brandon Howlett - BOS | 640 | $185K | 180 | .223 | 3 | .096 | 8.9 | 32.8 | 88 | 1/4 |
Here is a table of all HS position players drafted last year in the first 10 rounds (+Howlett) who have accumulated at least 150 PAs in full season ball this year. You can see how Casas compares to the others. Note there were quite a few big bonus picks (e.g., Anthony Seigler - NYY - Pick #23, Nick Schnell - TAM - Pick #32, etc.) who have yet to debut this year and other picks who are now in Low-A but have less than 150 PAs (Jordan Groshans - TOR - Pick #12). Howlett's numbers don't compare favorably, but props to him for even being in full season ball along these big bonus types. I bolded the top 3 values for each stat. Summary: Kelenic and Alek Thomas are showing the most well-rounded offensive skill set. Casas and Gorman are looking like the premier power hitters of the class. Xavier Edwards and Brice Turang can rake with K%s noticeably lower than their peers but little power to show at this stage in their career. Most of the other guys are struggling to hang at this level in the early going.
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Post by telson13 on May 31, 2019 18:15:10 GMT -5
Lol...60 grade raw power. What Casas is doing in Greenville is nothing short of outstanding. The improvement in K rate is extremely impressive for a first full season 19 y/o. I still think he approximates this performance as a season line, and maybe forces promotion to Salem by August. .270/.350/.530 or so for the year would be very, very impressive, especially if a significant chunk comes in high A. And I love the way he discusses his power...it took Chavis a couple of seasons to figure that out. Casas going all-fields will get a *bunch* of XBH in Fenway. High bat offensively as a 1b, but I think there’s a pretty good chance he *well* exceeds it.
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